i don't want to have no patience. both have deadline within a month. then judge dearie will come in and will have until mid-december to work through all of the disputes in that pile. back to you. >> thank you. top of the new hour now. i'm victor blackwell. >> i'm erica hill. three weeks to go until november's midterm elections, and right now candidates are making their final push for voters. nearly 1301,000 people cast their ballot yesterday alone. president biden is betting big that abortion rights will drive people to the polls.

>> last night heated debates across the country the economy, crime, voting rights, now remember here, the senate is split 50-50 so every competitive race is crucial. cnn's political correspondent abby phillips joins us now. the senate and the big picture here. >> yeah, victor and erica, look, this is going to be a very close midterm cycle and every single race counts, here's why, take a look at where the balance of power stands here in the senate in terms of these are the races that are competitive in this cycle, look over here, just three seats, three seats are rated ass to-ups, that mean that are favored democrats likely to be in the democrat column or lean democratic and 20 are leaning toward the republican column likely or solidly republican and that's why you're seeing such focus on just a few

of these races, let's talk about some of them, these are the three cnn rates as our toss-ups in the senate. the georgia race, incumbent senator raphael warnock going up against herschel walker, then down in pennsylvania, the lieutenant governor of that state is going up against a trump-endorsed celebrity doctor mehmet oz. this is an open seat, neither are incumbents. but take a look at nevada, democrats are defending yet another senate seat, catherine cortez-matso in a tough fight also, that's where you're seeing some of the real fights in the senate shaping up, the problem also, i think, for democrats in particular in the senate is

they're trying to gain an edge in more seats than republicans are, they have five states where they're hoping to flip, north carolina, florida, pennsylvania, wisconsin and in ohio. but in several of these they're going up against republican incumbents. in florida and also in wisconsin, so that's what makes it so difficult. republicans are hoping to flip some democrat-held seats. their battle ground here is far fewer seats. this is a tough situation for democrats but it's a coin flip at this point, both parties i think agree on that. >> when it comes to house, there's a real focus here especially on suburban voters in key districts, key districts that republicans lost during trump presidency, give us a better sense of where those are. >> where president biden won

those seats but they are key battlegrounds, battlegrounds for a lot of different reasons, one of them being, some demographic changes, you have redistricting but you also have this overarching issue of the economy and just like in the united states senate the battleground here in the house is so incredibly narrow, 19 seats are rated by cnn as toss-ups, democrats are defending or favored in 205 seats, republicans in 211 seats and if you look at the balance of power in the house, democrats only have an eight-seat margin it's not going to take very much for republicans to gain an advantage in this chamber, one of the problems here for democrats in a midterm cycle like this they're the incumbent and typically when incumbent presidents are at his favorability level the party in power, loses two dozen seats and

upward of 60 seats, the house is such a coin flip but in those battleground districts it's all going to be about how those voters view the job democrats have been doing while they've been in power and the economy is really top of mind when it comes to that issue. >> all right, abby, thank you. today president biden promised to make roe v. wade the law of the land if democrats remain in power in november. >> he would send congress a bill to codify roe. the hope here is that that promise that will galvanize voters enough to get them to the polls and keep democrats in control of the house and the senate. >> here's the promise i make to you and the american people, the first bill that i will send to the congress will be to codify roe v. wade and restore the right for woman to choose in

every state. so get out and vote. we're live at the white house, m.j., the president really focusing here on abortion rights, hoping that that will drive voters to the poll, the polling isn't really in line with that. >> yeah, you know, this shouldn't be a surprise that we're seeing the president give this kind of speech as you know very well the white house and democrats in washington have really seized on the issue of abortion and reproductive rights ever since the supreme court ruled -- overruled roe v. wade earlier this year and it's an issue that white house officials have hoped would help to galvanize and mobilize the base and democratic supporters, we did hear this president make this specific promise in his speech earlier today where he basically said codifying roe v. wade is going to be his first legislative priority if democrats do well in midterms. i have to emphasize that's

really important, because so many things need to actually go the democrats' way for this to be realistic. they need to keep the house and expand their majority in the senate, change the filibuster rules and a majority supports codifying roe v. wade, so this is a tough thing that he's promising, but in that way it's an important political message that we're seeing from him even if of course white house officials here and he himself this is very difficult thing for him to execute on. the white house is cognizant that polls show that the top issue for the majority of the voters remains the economy, yes, plenty of people are revved up about the issue of abortion and reproductive rights. abortion is the number one issue and this is why we're reporting earlier that the president is

expected to announce another 14 million barrels of oil released from the strategic reserve, this is as they have been hoping that gas prices would continue to fall that's not happening consistently anymore, and they're really hoping to make the case, an economic case, and really talk about both the abortion issue but also keep the economic issue top of mind as well. >> thank you, m.j. tonight in florida it will be showdown between republican senator marco rubio and his democratic challenge congresswoman val demings. >> first time they'll debate ahead of the midterms. what can we expect? >> reporter: victor, this race has been flying under the radar. it features two big names in florida politics, republicans are hoping to send marco rubio back to the senate for another six-year term, meanwhile

democrats nominating val demings, a former house impeachment marve who was on joe biden's short list to be vice president in 2020, now going into this race rubio has a slight but solid lead and republicans here are hopeful that this is a sign that the state is no longer that perennial battle ground and turning into a more solidly red state, actually the last time that rubio was on the ballot democrats had more registered voters than republicans that's now flipped and there are about 300,000 republicans in state than democrats now, so that's the reality that val demings is walking into tonight and she actually i think might be her last best chance to shift those political winds with just three weeks to go until election day. she spent a lot of time on the issue of abortion, senator rubio is one of the few senators who actually signed on to as a

co-sponsor to lindsay graham's national abortion ban so i think you'll hear a lot of discussion about that tonight. i think demings also wants to contrast her background against rubio's. she likes to say she's the daughter of a maid and a janitor, a black woman who rose through the police ranks to become a chief in orlando against rubio who has spent most of his time in elected office and victor the issue of policing in general is going to be one to watch tonight because republicans have really tried to make crime a central issue, how does that work against demings who herself is a former police officer? >> we'll be watching that tonight. steve, thanks. january 6th taking center stage in last night's fiery debate in utah between republican senator mike lee and the man who wants his job

independent evan mcmullin. >> senator lee it's a betrayal of to american republic you were there to stand up for the constitution but when they were at the gates you were happy to let them in. >> there's absolutely nothing to the idea that i would have ever supported, ever did support a fake electors plot. yes, there were people who behaved very badly on that day. i wasn't one of them. i was trying to dismantle the situation. >> the insurrectionists were calling for the vice president pence to be hung on january 6th. olivia, nice to see you this afternoon. january 6th the ongoing threat to democracy, figuring prominently and we know that democracy is important to voters, this most recent poll from the "the new york times"

found 70% of likely voters say that american democracy is under threat. what's fascinating most of them aren't voting on that point they're voting on the economy. what does that tell you about the future of this country? >> look, first, i think evan mcmullin was correct in pointing out what senator mike lee has done, the text messages to mark meadows at the time he was certainly complicit in this really dark time in this country and that legacy of those actions still lives on today and we're seeing people running across the country on election denying platforms that's a danger to our democracy. voters are looking at inflation and kitchen table issues, what i think is concerning here is should people like those election deniers win that really changes really impactfully the game when it comes to our elections and what this means going forward because when

people are voting they may not be represented in the voters they actually cast if these people have the power to overturn elections in future. >> are there some things you're watching on both election day and the days that follow, as absentee ballots are counted? what's on your radar? >> well, certainly watching for what people say in their statements in the immediate aftermath after the midterm elections and quite candidly threats against the poll workers, against election workers who, you know, should be thanked for the job they do. lot of them have been leaving their roles because they've been under durress in previous elections. i'll be looking at the types of people who get elected and what

that means for 2024 and potential person is going to be sitting in the oval office in terms of who they leader might be. >> to that point, another what i found frankly chilling question in that poll, specifically supporting candidates that reject the legitimacy of the 2020 election, 12% voters of democrats said they were open to that. candidates may refuse to accept the results in 202, we heard kari lake over the weekend, dana bash asked her repeatedly if she would accept the results of the election if she lost. she dodged the question. >> that's a perfect example. watching her and she certainly sidestepped around it. so i have no doubt there's people out there right now that are already starting to question the elections and sowing doubts

that's straight out of the donald trump playbook in terms of what he did in the months leading up to the election and we saw what that leads to in terms of potential violence just like we saw the violence on january 6th, you know i think, i saw that in the polling and it is incredibly concerning because that means what all of these people did that were a part of this in terms of talking about the stolen election of 2020 and their continuing on to carry this forward had an incredible impact on the voters and it undermined voters' confidence in our elections. . the bottom line for all of that is is that that's how democracy dies because people are starting to doubt our fundamental freedom of election in our election process. >> it's a legitimate fear. thank you for your time this afternoon, olivia. so here's another number for you, 100%, the likelihood of a

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new economic predictions from two financial giants, the u.s. economy next spring will sink into a 1990-style mild recession. >> the appropriate of a recession within the next year 100%, by bloomberg. so, remind us of what a

'90-style recession, we've been saying it all day and is it really as bad as it sounds? >> essentially a 1990s-style recession would be a mild recession, a lot of times when we hear the word recession, we have a flashback to the dmik meltdown of 2008, that's not what fisch is predicting here, a mild recession where the unemployment rate goes up but it doesn't skyrocket. peaking at 5.4%, two percentage points higher than current levels. not nearly as bad as the unemployment rate spikes that we saw during past recessions most notably in 2020 when the unemployment went up by 11 percentage points. inflation is very high that's crushing families and businesses and all oaf our retirement accounts and it's forcing the

fed to slam the brakes on the economy and eventually if they lob enough of these monster-size interest rates they'll succeed in slowing it down but they see some reasons for cautious optimism one, the jobs market is entering this period at a very strong point. consumer finances are relatively sturdy. and banks are a lot stronger they were during the 2008 crisis, yes, we're hearing these recession warnings, bloomberg economics projecting a 100% chance of a resecond in the next 12 months. i'm a bit surprised by that level of certainly, because there's so many moving pieces, inflation, the war in ukraine, covid lockdowns in china, hard to see how anyone can be 100%

sure of anything right now. >> matt, appreciate it. >> thank you, matt. the mississippi river is measuring at its lowest depth ever recorded in memphis, tennessee, negative 10.75 feet. >> wider ranging impacts in louisiana where the army corps of engineers having to build a levee to protect the water supply. this sounds like it's drastic. >> it's really drastic, no telling when they're going to get some relief there. such a trickle-down effect, half of the grain in this country are moving down by a barge in this country. and this drought now is exposing ship wrecks from the 19th century, geological factors, so

who knows where this goes and as you said as well, they have to worry about saltwater intrusion, not enough coming do unthe mississippi river that the sea water from the gulf gets in there and it has so many different knockoff effects. >> the ripple effects of that saltwater pushing into where it should be saltwater. the treasury department want to take a hard look at climate-related disasters and how that's driving up insurance rates across the country, in the wake of ian, what do they think this might change? >> the national flood insurance program is such a mess because as these -- we keep rebuilding in the same spots, you don't have to be a true climatologyist to understand the trends lines, we're getting numbers on ian not as bad as we feared initially.

they expect 225,000 claims, it's at about 100,000 claims, that's great news, because a lot of small insurance claims the insurance company goes out of business. so but, again, they'll have to shore-up that state-funded insurance company of last resort and then comes the moral question of how often are you going to spread that risk around to people or a kind of place if you want to live in paradise you take all the risk that will make a wealth gap even more extreme so just the rich folks can go there and that's one thing and who waits tables in your restaurants, who's your landscaper, where does he live. >> who's your teacher, your cop? who's working at the post office? >> property values go down, tax base goes down, yes, we're going

to have big conversations in the coming years about this. >> in the upside they're looking at because there's a recognition that the two are related and something has to be figured out. bill weir, nice to see you. >> you bet. ukraine's president says 30% of his country's power stations have been destroyed in just one week, and defensive officials there say russia is critically low on missiles. plus, secretary of state antony blinken has warnings about china trying to unify taiwan and chihina. any time soon. slowingn i'll give it a run for its money. mymy money's on the sub. it's subway's biggest refresesh yet.

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secretary of state antony blinken says china is speeding up its plan/taiwan to annex the island was possibly using coercion or even force if necessary. >> there has been a change in the approach from beijing toward taiwan in recent years and instead of sticking with the status quo was established in a positive way a fundamental decision that the status quo was

no longer acceptable and that beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster time line. >> cnn global affairs analyst kimberly dozier joins us now. good to see you this afternoon. when it comes to this faster time line, what does that say to you and i wonder, too, how the reaction to russia's invasion by ukraine by the u.s., by the west, could be figuring in. >> well the fact that the secretary of state decided to go public with this is a message to xi and china writ large, we see what you're doing and we're watching the moves of your military, your naval assets on the potential battlefield and we're not going to let this aggression go unchecked, this means they've got intelligence intercepts and they've got xi's

speech at the party conference when he made his declaration he's against the independence of taiwan and you combine this together with president biden's comments to 60 minutes a while back where he said if taiwan was invaded u.s. troops would be called on to defend the country, it's a combination that leads to confrontation but it also puts beijing on notice that it's not going to go without the u.s. trying to rally its allies against any such action. >> interesting to see how that all plays out, what if needed that defense would actually look like especially based on the cleanup that some officials within the administration seem to have done each time president biden has expressed that support and i was fascinating by these reports that china is recruiting

former british military pilots to train the military, look, this doesn't violate current laws but it's concerning and especially when we're hearing these other comments, is that -- is that something we could more of. >> the uk ministry of defense is basically asking the government there to pass laws to make this illegal in the future because the feeling in britain is that what china is trying to do is learn british techniques, procedures and learn how to fight against them by offering these former pilots salaries of up to 500,000 u.s., they want to stop it from happening again, all part of china preparing for confrontations not only in cyberworld or the market space or preparing taking the last remaining superpower with the military that will eventually

outstrip the u.s. that's what china has been saying it's aiming for, especially its military statements it's aiming for domination. >> yeah, i do want to get your take on ukraine, we've seen so many developments there over the last week and two from russia, fascinated by a poll, a new gallup poll of ukrainians we're here for the long haul, they believe the country should keep fighting until it wins the will is there, i wonder, what's your sense of the broader support in terms of weaponry globally is that same support there? >> look, the will is there right now in europe in the united states and on the ground in ukraine but this is becoming a test of who can put up with the most pain for the longest and putin seems to believe that his

people, that russia can, at this point he still has enough control, enough popular support and enough authoritarian support within the security apparatus that he can keep prosecuting this war even as his country suffers through what's likely to be a brutal winter, meanwhile europe is going to be dealing with some shortages that it's never faced before, same thing in britain and look at what's happening in the united states, high prices here because of the knock on effect of higher gas prices bass of the war in ukraine are making people question the support of the overall conflict, inside ukraine, as more and more of the electricity grid keeps getting knocked offline by these cheap drones when it gets 30 degrees and you got no heat in your house you could start thinking

about leaving the country again, maybe not whole families but we could see another exodus of women and children. >> an important question about knocking off the significant portion of electricity does for communications not only for military but for civilians as well. kimberly, always appreciate your insight. >> thank you. in oklahoma, a deepening mystery after the bodies of four many were found dismembered in a river, police now say they appeared to be on their way to commit a crime, details next. ...towower cam for a - hey! folks, we seem to have a visitor. it looks like - looks like you paid too much for your glasses. ... who? anyone who isn't shopping t - where two pairs and a free exam anstart at just $79.95.ng t

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a man police see as a person of interest in killings of four men in northeastern oklahoma has just been arrested in florida. >> authorities say the dismembered bodies of four men on bikes were found in a river about 35 miles south of tulsa, all four had been shot but police say before they were killed it appears they were planning some type of criminal act. a man police have been looking for turned up in the daytona beach area, tell us about that. >> reporter: well, this was a man that police so far have only been describing as a person of interest, joe kennedy owns two salvage yards and this is significant because police have said that the four men who went missing and bodies found

dismembered in a river there about 40 miles south of tulsa, oklahoma, their cell phones were tracked to these two properties owned by joe kennedy, police say they spoke with him on friday the day that the bodies were discovered that he was cooperative with them but then went missing and just a few hours ago we have learned that joe kennedy was found, picked up on an unrelated charge for driving a stolen vehicle, a pickup track with oklahoma lic license plates, so she'he's bee taken into custody. they're still trying to unravel why these four men were murdered in such a gruesome, heinous way. they have evidence to suggest that these four men were plotting some kind of criminal act. >> based on information obtained during the course of the

investigation we believe the men planned to commit a criminal act that belief is based on information supplied by a witness who reports they were to go with the men, quote, unquote, hit a lick big enough for all of them. >> we spoke with an uncle of two of the victims a short while ago saying the families are distraught over the gruesome nature of these murders and they're trying to figure out what was going on here as well. >> lots of questions still. ed, thank you. she was just 9 years old when she witnessed george floyd's murder, now she's wherein a book about that day. she and her co-author are with us next. only from t-t-mobile for business.

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our next guest was just 9 years old when she took a walk in minneapolis to get candy back on memorial day 2020, you remember that day, she watched george floyd's murder under the knee of then-police officer derek chauvin, you see her here, in that short saying "love" her cousin recorded the video, she was the youngest person in that crowd and now, she's written a book with an activist to help other kids who experienced trauma, it's called "a walk to the store." they are with me now. i've been looking forward to this conversation all day. thank you for your time. it's been 2 1/2 years since that

tragedy, how are you feeling about it now? >> pretty good. >> you wrote this book, how did you get the idea to write a book about your experience? >> i learned it from cameron goes to school and i learned i want to write a book too. >> now, cameron and i'm going to carry that over to you, you've written books, that book is one of yours, talk about that process, this is trauma you're dealing with a child, the sessions to write this book. >> it was a labor of love i have to tell and this is why represent sensation is so important in children's literature. here this little girl is on the right block at the wrong time and she witnesses something as tragic and historic as george floyd's death. and she's with her mother and

she's wondering, how can i tell my story? and she remembers that he has a copy of my children's book with my little daugt honor hter on t. just a little black girl telling her story about having autism and being nonverbal. and she's got curly little hair, brown skin. and she thinks, if she can tell her story, so can i. >> absolutely. i read the book. it's a children's book, so, it's not a long read, but the center of this is a man's murder. so, i imagine you have to be careful here, but not talk around it. >> you know, it was so important for us not to show the violence. not to show mr. floyd in that final moment, not to give any credence to mr. chauvin. but also to tell her authentic story. i've got four kids.

three of them have autism, so, you know, they were nonverbal for a very long time and i've experienced play therapy with my children to get them to communicate in ways that they would about typically otherwise, like normal developing kids, so, we did a lot of play therapy. we did a lot of talking back and forth through dolls and with games, and, you know, her family trusts me. her mother and father trust me and so, she trusts me to be able to tell her story in a way that would resonate with other children. this is about kids coping with trauma. and as you know, you work in news, there's so much going on right now with school shootings and everything else, we cannot not talk to our children about it. and so, one of the things i'm most proud of is at the end of "a walk to the store" is a resource page that was put together and it's ten tips for parents and their children to talk about traumatic events.

>> what do you want people to, or kids especially, to learn from this book? >> i want them to be brave in life and don't be shy and scared. don't be scared of anything. >> yeah, it starts with you being too little to walk to the store by yourself, but at the end, you realize how much event at a young age, how much impact you can have. and let me shoutout the illustrator, too, because this depiction of you on the front looks just the way you did that day, a fantastic depiction there. thank you both so much. the book is "a walk to the store: the youngest witness there writes a book dealing with her trauma after the killing of george floyd." >> thank you so much. >> so great. so glad you had them on. a pilot and a passenger died after a small plane crash into a

ohio car dealership this morning. it happened near the west virginia border. >> bystander video shows huge plums of smoke after the 48-year-old small occupancy plane crash into the dealership parking lot. miraculously, no injuries reported there on the ground. and there is reported damage of multiple vehicles and buildings, as you'd expect. the ntsb is investigating. in today's edition of "it's not easy being tom brady," listen, it does happen every day. the seven-time super bowl champion is now comparing football season to a military deployment. >> yeah, this was during brady's "let's go" podcast, where the tampa bay star talked about finding a balance between his job and his personal life. >> i almost look at like a football season like you're going away on deployment for the military. >> yeah, yeah. >> and it's like, man, here i go again. and there's only one way to do it and i think, jim, we've talked from time to time just about, how do you enjoy the certain moments of it?

>> i think i know what he was trying to say there -- >> yeah, you hear what he's trying to get to. >> didn't probably land the way he intended it to. >> yeah, all right. we'll update you on tom brady again tomorrow. let's go to newark now. a real life version of snakes on a plane. >> oh, god. >> a passenger -- i really want to do the sam jackson line, but i want to keep this job. flight from tampa told our cnn affiliate the business class passenger start ed shrieking as the flight was tax siing. >> i would have been screaming bloody murder. the garden snake slithering around the plane was the reason. oh -- it's my worst nightmare. police and operation employees removed the snake. no one yuz inwas injured. plane operations were not impacted. i'm not a snake person. >> really? >> no, no.

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