in is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the

united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. today on the program, vladamir putin says the world faces the most dangerous decade since world war ii. will he make it more dangerous by using nuclear weapons? can he compromise and make a deal? i will ask one of the highest level defectors from putin's own government. then -- britain has its third prime minister in less than two months. we will tell you what you need to know about rishi sunak and his plans. >> trust is earned, and i will earn yours. >> can he gave the economy? and the reputation of that storied nation? and as a divided america heads to the polls, what can we learn from the most divided period in

american history? the civil war years. i sit down with john meacham who just published a new biography of abraham lincoln. but first, here's my take. history and current polling both tell us that the house of representatives will likely flip over to republican control in the november midterms. what happens then? actual governance will come to a standstill. there will be a flurry of investigations on everything, from the justice department to hunter biden to the border crisis. the january 6th committee will almost certainly be disbanded, and president biden will be impeached. how did we get here? there are many reasons, but the central facilitating factor is surely the way that american politics has, over the last few decades, increasingly empowered the extremes of political

parties at the expense of the main stream. the primary system used by american parties to choose their candidates is extremely unusual. no other major democracy has one quite like it. primaries ensure that candidates chosen are selected by a sliver of the party. around 20% of voters. and this election is not at all representative. these are the most intense, agitated activists, often far more extreme in their views than run oh it have mill registered republicans or democrats. add to this computer enabled gerrymandering, and you get extreme candidates who run in safe districts where the only threat to them is a primary candidate who is even more extreme. "the washington post" has analyzed republicans running for senate, house, and certain state-wide offices and found that a majority could be classified as election deniers. people who have in some way questioned, challenged, or

refused to accept the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. of these 291 candidates, 171 are running in safe republican districts. so what began as a fringe theory, promoted by donald trump but initially rejected by most of the republican party's leaders, has now become the majority view of the party. election denial is not a majority view in the united states. in an nbc poll, 57% of those asked said they would be less likely to vote for someone who claims trump won the 2020 election, while only 21% said they would be more likely to support an election denier. but between primaries and gerrymandering, the majority view gets drowned out. catering to the right wing base means ratcheting up the rhetoric. nancy pelosi is a would-be dictator. biden is a communist.

democrats are pro margorie taylor greene has said, democrats want republicans dead. the alternative candidate election used before the age of primaries and most other major democracies is the smoke-filled room. in this system, candidates are selected by party bosses. but consider who these bosses have traditionally been. ald alderman, mayors, governors and legislators at all levels. these are people who have won general elections by appealing to the entire electorate. people who have a feel for the broader public. no group of party elders, for example, would ever choose a candidate like herschel walker. primaries, by contrast, entrust candidate selection to the most radical section of the party. social media has added fuel to the fire by amplifying the noisiest and angriest voices

within the party, who are an even smaller group than prime minister voters. while the problem is far worse and much more dangerous on the republican side, these pressures do also affect democrats. many of the issues where joe biden is constrained in his actions, in particular, immigration and energy, are ones where the activist base of the party has much more extreme views than the main stream. and pivoting to the center as pennsylvania candidate john fetterman did on fracking did is increasingly difficult, where you can easily play old clips of a politician before he changed his mind. in a recent piece in "the new york times," max fisher describes how the recent dysfunctions of british politics can be attributed to the two main parties choosing over the last two decades to adopt more of a primary type system to select their leader. the labor party ended up with

the totally unelectable leader, and rejected a moderate. the recent conservative party travails illustrate the party perfectly. liz truss, with her impractical warmed over thatcherism, came in third in votes, but she was the darling of the broader party membership, which is highly unrepresented of the british public, and they made the final decision. it is not an accident that germany and france have both been run largely by centrists in a time of populism. they have chosen to keep to old system of democracy, based on the principle of majority rule. democracy has become minority rule, and the minority holding power is unrepresentative,

angry, and increasingly radical. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington post column this week. and let's get started. on wednesday, russia's president vladamir putin claimed that ukraine was planning to use a so-called dirty bomb, a claim that his underlings had been peddling for days. the accusations were denounced by ukraine and western allies. they say this rhetoric is nothing more than a russian attempt to ratchet up tensions and escalate the conflict. so how far will putin go to turn the tide of a war that has not gone his way? joining me now is boris vonder, who was a diplomat based at the united nations in geneva before resigning in may over the war in ukraine. he's one of the highest level

officials to defect over the war, and he joins us now from switzerland. welcome, boris. i want to start by asking you to describe why you think russia's decision making and decision making apparatus got to the point it did in the invasion of ukraine. because you have this fascinating foreign affairs essay, where you lay out really how russia has evolved as a kind of ruling elite in russia has gotten narrower, more and more insulated, more and more kind of divorced from the outside world. what do you think -- what happened that got us to where we are? >> first of all, it is the result or skrououtcome of the evolution of the russian state, which we have witnessed for the last 20 years, and even longer. it has been getting more and more isolated from society, and this is very dangerous, because people who work in government,

they get this misinformation from their colleagues. and they make the decision based on this miscalculation and misinformation. we see it in the invasion in ukraine. >> in the kind of decision making structure you're describing, boris, i assume bad news does not travel up the chain. in other words, people are not likely to tell putin, mr. president, the war is going badly. the idea of trying to take kyiv was bad. all that kind of thing probably doesn't go up the chain as much as one would hope it would. >> i believe it is very close to truth, and i also believe that when you report some information high -- to the high command, to the leadership of the country, you have -- i mean in russia today, you have to make it as

pleasant and possible. of course, you don't want to displease or upset your bosses and the government itself. because it would -- it would jeopardize your career prospects. >> so when we hear this talk about a dirty bomb, first by putin's aides, lavrov, now putin himself, what do you think is going on inside? is this -- are they feeling a certain pressure and coming up with new -- new threats? >> i think that today russian leadership is actually at a loss. they are trying to adjust themselves to this new reality. and the reality says that russia may well lose this war. and, you know, it looks quite chaotic, really, because there is no strategy under this. it is only some kind of random

ways of looking for some opportunities to get themselves out of this very, very peculiar and very dangerous situation. >> what about the threat of a nuclear weapon being used? in your career as a diplomat, have you ever heard of the russian top leadership talking about the possible use of a tactical nuclear weapon? do you think putin is bluffing, or is this real? >> i don't think that the nuclear weapon threats are very real for now, and i think that they will not be real if putin gets a very clear signal from the international community that any use of nuclear weapons will have the gravest consequences for russia and him personally. >> and what about negotiations? if putin feels like he's losing and that fear continues, that fear continues, he could end up using a tactical nuclear weapon.

what if the battlefield ends up, you know, in a stalemate? let's say the ukrainians take more territory, kherson, maybe kharkiv, but then it boggs down. at that point, could you imagine putin being willing to arrive at some kind of negotiated settlement, which would be a compromise for everyone? >> all the parties have absolutely different aprioritie and goals. so for now, i don't see any prospects for any real -- >> if what you say is true and we are in for just a long, protracted war, what happens inside russia? does putin's hold on russia -- is it hold so strong that even a long war, maybe even more mobilization, would not weaken it? >> at first, i don't think that putin is really ready for a long, protracted war.

i think that his strength, his regime is a little bit overestimated now. and now we see in russia that there is a lot of confusion in the conduct of mobilization, for instance. and there is some kind of unrest and discontent within the population. so i believe that ukraine may not go on this path of long and protracted war. but the ukrainian army is capable of defeating russian trops troops. they need the continued support from the west. but with that, i believe they can win this war in quite short terms, maybe in a few months. they have already shown a very significant progress in this. >> boris, fascinating insights. we appreciate you coming on. very, very useful. >> thank you.

next on "gps," can the new british prime minister rishi sunak quash the chaos that has been plaguing his nation? that question when we come back. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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ensure with twenty-five vitamins and minerals, and ensure complete with thirty grams of protein. on tuesday, britain traded its shortest serving prime minister for its youngest, at least since william pitt in 1873. rishi sunak is the first person of color to be the chief resident of number 10 downing street, and the wealthiest. and now he's charged with fixing his country's economy and its reputation. is he up to the task? will he fair better than his predecessors?

the editor in chief of "the economist" joins me now. you know, he's now in this job, but as you have written many times, this is a tough position. britain is in trouble. can he fix it? >> well, we have someone who is competent. we can no longer take that for grant it in britain. he was a very competent chancellor and someone who has a bloomberg terminal on his desk, and it's a testament to the devil that britain has sunk to, that being competent, everyone is celebrating that we have a competent prime minister. but he has a huge task, a country that is financially much riskier than it was. the aftermath of miss truss' mistakes are there. now the markets have greater faith in rishi sunak. but britain's problems are real.

it's the only g7 economy whose average is still lower than pre-covid. we are an economy that is weaker and more risky, thanks to brexit. we talked about this a lot in the past. i think brexit has left us weaker. and he has a torrey party that is tremendously divided. rishi sunak has created a cabinet of talents, he's reached out to the other factions. that is all great, but the question, can he really tackle the big challenges that britain has? it's a slow-growing economy. it's got big problems. i'm not yet sure he's going to be able to tackle those. but my goodness, it's much better than where we were. >> but as you say in your editorial this week, he was wrong on brexit. he was very enthusiastic about brexit. i think the evidence is clear. it's logical, you are cutting off referen shall trade relations with your largest market.

how can that be good economically? in a weird way, liz truss did have -- she was trying to respond to that problem by saying we're going to be the singapore, the low trade, low regulation. he needs an answer to this problem. >> that's completely true. people forget now that rishi sunak, you know, very early on was very enthusiastic about brexit. he thought it would make the country more prosperous. liz truss was a remainer who became a brexiteer. he was always enthusiastic. he was wrong about that. and that's not the only thing he was wrong about. he was an early enthuse yis of boris johnson as prime minister. so he has been wrong. in many ways the problem that britain faces today is a function of the decisions the country took that rishi sunak enthusiastically reported. we're now so desperate to have some comp tempetent that we for

that. >> liz truss announced $40 billion in tax cuts and the markets went haywire. around the same time, the estimate for biden's student debt forgiveness plan came out and it was $400 billion. i mean, america can run up the biggest deficits. is the reserve currency such an advantage that economic policy doesn't matter? because you have a big editorial on biden-omics. >> yes, it is the privilege that the u.s. has, and having the reserve currency means that you can do a lot more than other countries can't do. it gives the u.s. a much, much easier time of that. you're right, we have a bigger look at bidenomics, and inflation isn't the only problem. everyone is focused on

inflation, and rightly so. but what's going on is a much, much broader activist, interventionist industrial policy. the extraordinary inaplt named "inflation reduction act." one goal is to tackle climate change, the other is to have an approach towards competitive concerns about china. but it is riddled with buy american clauses. that protectionism, we are probably one of the few -- some of the few free traders out there. but we really worry about that protectionism, because we think it will make it a much less effective of its goals of climate change change and strengthening the u.s. economy. inflation is the big question around here. but look under the hood. the u.s. is in the midst oh of

this really, really ambitious, activist industrial policy. i'm not at all sure it's being designed in the way it's going to be good for the u.s. >> it will be great for subsidies. you point out the total amount of subsidies the u.s. is giving out is well more than france. and the u.s. has always mocked france for having this protectionist policy, and french policies have always failed. your fear is the americans will also. >> absolutely. >> always a pleasure. >> thank you. coming up next on "gps," america got a dismal report card this week, perhaps unsurprisingly, kids have suffered and struggled greatly at school in the last three years. we'll talk about that report card and a solution to the problem when we come back. with leading ultra-capacity 5g cocoverage. t-mobile for business hahas 5g that's ready right now.

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this week, the united states released its first national education report card in three years. and the country's performance was worthy of a long stint in detention. fourth and eighth graders recorded the largest drop in math scores ever. and enequalities between rich students and poorer peers deepened. it's the latest, most representative evidence of the crisis in the u.s. the question is how do we fix it? my next guest says he has the answer. he's the ceo of khan academy, a nonprofit that provides lessons to students online. welcome.

so when you saw this evidence to begin with, what was your reaction? >> it wasn't surprising. i don't think i was alone there. but i think what is maybe a little surprising even before this is why people weren't viewing this as an emergency over been the pandemic. things went down in math and reading. the worst results were in eighth grade math, where prepandemic, about a third of students in the u.s. were proficient in math. that was pretty horrible. and now it's a fourth. so even though things got dramatically worse, it was pretty bad before. it wasn't just the pandemic, although the pandemic made things worse. >> so in some ways, the kind of central question, and you're the perfect person to ask this to, during the pandemic, large amounts of the education that people were getting in person went online. and it seems like that online

experience was terrible for educational outcomes. now, you're the king of online education. so why did online education not work during the pandemic? >> it's a great question. i always like to differentiate between online versus remote. what did happen during the pandemic, and you can't blame anyone. they didn't have a lot of time to plan this. the same traditional academic model where you have 20, 30 students in the classroom, that just got transferred to zoom somewhat overnight. now students are sitting in on zoom calls for four, five hours a day. you can imagine those were very, very disen dpendisengaging. so what happened during the pandemic, it game even more disengaging, a lot of kids fell off the radar and weren't able to engage in their education. on the other hand, you can do online learning. when used best, it's used inside of a classroom with people next

to each other. students can work on their own pace on things that are relevant to them. the teacher can walk around and have more human-to-human interaction than they would get in a lecture based classroom. the students are encouraged not to put their fingers on their lips but encouraged to talk to each other and help each other. so it's about are you leveraging human connection? are there ways to engage students, versus things that are less engaging. and the less engaging is somewhat happened during the pandemic. >> it seems to me, sal, a lot of what makes people learn is the social setting, that they're with friends, they're trying to impress their peers or competing with them, or there's a social element to it, which almost makes it comfortable for the education for them to receive the education. but to just sit in front of a zoom for five, six hours, all you're getting is the education,

but none of that social dynamic, seems very, very suboptimal. >> no one grease more than myself with that statement. but what's interesting right now is, the solution isn't to just say hey, we're never going to use a computer again, but we have the students back on campus. they can engage with each other. what is the optimal engagement? that is don't just keep shepherding them lock step, half the kids are bored, half are lost. let them give feedback on things that are going to be useful for them. >> the online part allows for that tailoring of each student matching up to the level and problems that they can deal with, right? >> that's right. you know, before -- if you go back -- 2300 years back intentionally, the time of alexander the great, he had a personal tutor named aristotle. 200 years ago, we had a utopian

idea of let's have free math education. we borrowed tools from the industrial revolution. let's apply some lectures to them. every few weeks we'll get assessment. the kids doing all right will track them into the top of the labor pyramid, some kids in the middle, some at the bottom. that's not acceptable any more. and then the pandemic just put a bigger spotlight on. we can't do the same as usual, as hope to get a better result, you know, as you know, that's often times the definition of insanity, expecting a different outcome by doing the same thing. try to get -- proximate what alexander the great did, but we can't have one on one for everybody. so this is where online personalized learning is important. this is all free. it's not for profit. everyone listening can use it. they can tell their school about it. the more people that use it, i have to go out there and raise

more money for it. >> i always get smarter listening to you. always a pleasure. >> thanks, fareed. next on "gps," at a time of deepening division, even talk of a civil war in the united states, what lessons can we all take from the age of abraham lincoln? find out in a moment. ...and recalibrate your safety system. > customer: and they recycld my old glass. >> tech: donon't wait. schedule today. >> singers: ♪ safelite repapai, safelite replace. ♪ yes, i need a trim. i just want to be able to cut the damage. we tried dove instead. so, still need that trim? oh my go! i am actually ocked i don't need a haircut. don't trim dailyamage. stop it with dove.

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with u.s. midterm elections just over a week away, half the country's voters believe america is too politically divided to solve its own problems. that's according to a poll which also showed 70% of voters believe u.s. democracy is under threat. let's remember the past to help us understand the present.

today, i want to look back more than a century and a half to the most divided moment in american history, when lincoln was president. the historian john meacham released a biography on lincoln called "and there was light." meacham occasionally advises joe biden and he now joins me. occasionally advises me, as well. >> to the same effect. >> umm, do you think there is a parallel between, you know, when you look at the data, it shows that we are the only time we were vsimilarly divided was aftr the civil war. do you think there are comparisons, analogies to be made here? >> i do. i was hoping for years for the last five years, that this was more like 1933 or 1968, where there were clashing visions, but a fundamental acceptance of the protocols of politics. i don't think that's true.

i think that the persistence of the big lie, trump's insistence that the election was stolen, and its ancillary impacts has created an 1850s feel. it's a clash of visions that has almost everything to do with power and identity. and democracies do not long endure, as lincoln would say, if we do not mutually respect the rules of the road. and we can argue about whether the constitution should do this or that. but in that case, in the 1850s, there was an entire breaking of that compact. i worry that we're within hailing distance of that today. >> you said it was centered around identity. of course, it did -- the south censored its distinctive peculi

institution it was called. when you talk to some trump supporters, they say no, it's not about race or culture. but it has the feel. the issues that tend to be immigration or, you know, this -- how you teach american history, critical race theory. >> it's power. and democracies only work if power is marshalled and managed, not if it is seized. and that's what the white south was doing, my native region. they chose to define human rights in a very limited way. they exalted property rights over individual rights. and decided to secede from the union, ending an experiment which ultimately gave us an

ugalitaran future. lincoln believed the application of the meaning of the words in the declaration of independence was, in fact, what the country was about. the white south decided no, all men were not created equal. and lincoln, i think, to the benefit of humankind, decided that, in fact, if we could not bend the arc of a moral universe toward justice, if the declaration could not be made real, then we're in a hobbsian state of nature. >> and lincoln was saying this in a global context which democracy was weakened. he talked famously about the last best hope, and people focus on the "best" part, but he's signaling look, if we go down, things look bad, and we have been living through a decade of democratic backsliding and decay almost everywhere in the world. stlz is no question that lincoln

saw democracy and liberty and the american experiment as entwined. that if popular government failed here, then the divine right of kings would reassert itself. or the divine right of aristocracies. in this case, it was an aristocracy of race and property. and had that crisis not been resolved the way it was, then yes, he believed that the revolutions of 1776, 1789, of 1848, the of, for and by the people was a phrase he got from parker, and he also got it from the hungarian, who was a vital figure toward here, sort of like lafayette did late in life. >> you can find statues to him all over new york. >> we forget this, but it was a global story. a global story that society should not be organized vertically.

popes and princes and kings, but had to be horizontal. not to lionize him beyond his measure, but i wanted to understand not just how he did it, but why. and he grew up in a theological atmosphere that was antislavery. he believed in a kind of universalist fatherhood god, brotherhood of man. in no way a conventional christian. but there are these moments he could have decided to do something else. >> the tragic element of the comparison you're making is that the way we resolved our differences that last time around was through a bitter civil war where 600,000 americans died. >> absolutely. it's a terrible analogy, because of the way the 1860s ended. and i don't think we'll have amassed armies. we have having civil chaos, punctuated by violence, at a

level it's clear it's rising. i don't think we're going to be at that scale of mass warfare. but the scale of the argument, who are we? are we willing to give as well as to take? that argument is as fundamental. >> john meacham, always a pleasure. write more books. >> thank you, fareed. next on "gps," under xi jinping, china's once roaring economy has lost steam. yet he showed no signs of changing course at last week's party congress. i'll dig into these missteps in a moment. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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and now for the last look. china's communist party unveiled it's new inner circle last weekend, and it's stuffed with xi jinping loyalists. pro-market liberalizers are gone. gone are the heady days of reform and opening that characterized china. gone also is china's growth miracle. its economy, which grew by 10% a year for decades, has slowed

dramatically on xi's watch, and will likely grow by low single digits this year. in fact, in a striking piece of analysis, the financial times shows china's economy is likely to grow at 2.5% in the coming decades. commentators thought the chinese economy would overtake the u.s. by 2020. now it seems unlikely that will occur until 2060, if it ever does. what happened? well, there are basically two ways that economies grow. adding more workers and pushing productivity higher. meaning each worker produces more goods and services. as far as total workers goes, china faces a serious shortage. its working age population has peaked and is projected to fall steeply in the next few decades. this was set in motion under the one child policy. xi ended that policy and tried

to encourage people to have more children without any success. china now has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, with fewer and fewer workers, and more and more retires. that means the country's future depends on productivity. china's boom since the '80s was fundamentally about moving away from a state directed economy toward a more free market economy. productivity growth jumped, but it has slowed considerably since then. of course, it was easier to take a backwards economy and make it more productive by the time xi took over, the low hanging fruit had been picked. but whatever the hand he was dealt, economy has played it very badly. he's favored inefficient state state-owned xer prizes that he controls over the private sector. he made it difficult for the private sector to get loans but not state-owned companies.

regulators slapped a record fine on ali baba. another example officials banned the country's ride hailing app from app stores over its handling of customer data. there was one area where xi's predecessors used state levers to drive productivity. massive spending on infrastructure, and generous lending that allowed new housing to be built for workers moving to cities. but these approaches are petering out. it used to take about $4 of capital to produce $1 in gdp growth. by 2019, it took almost $8 of capital to produce that same $1 of gdp growth. part of the reason is the low institute points out is china has more infrastructure than many developed countries. adding more doesn't really make sense. meanwhile, the real estate

sector, turned into a speculative and wasteful bubble. xi deserves some credit for popping that bubble by reigning in lending but slow to repair the damage. on infrastructure, he's sticking with the old playbook. this year china embarked on a $1.1 trillion infrastructure spree. another focus on xi's is to make china more self-sufficient. this state-directed industrial policy may well flop. but it has unthey have beened other countries, as has xi's more aggressive approach on the u.s. so the u.s. and others have blocked china from acquiring their companies and buying their technology, such as microchips. now china is losing access to foreign innovation, and that could reduce gdp by up to 8% in

2050, compared to what it would have been. and we haven't even mentioned xi's strict zero covid policy, which has shut down economic activity in various places and choked off business, travel, and tourism for almost three years now, with little prospect xi will reverse course in the near future. the last few decades have been shaped by the economic rise of china. what will the next few decades look like if china stagnates? that's the question we should all be thinking about. and thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. ust tw. uhhhh... here, i'll takake that. [woo hoo!] ensure max protein, with 30 gramams of protein, one gram of sugar and nunutrients for immune health.

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