this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the

united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. today on the program, vladamir putin says the world faces the most dangerous decade since world war ii. will he make it more dangerous by using nuclear weapons? can he compromise and make a deal? i will ask boris bondarev, one of the highest level defectors from putin's own government. then -- britain has its third prime minister in less than two months. we will tell you what you need to know about rishi sunak and his plans. >> trust is earned, and i will earn yours. >> can he gave the economy? and the reputation of that storied nation? and as a divided america heads to the polls, what can we learn

from the most divided period in american history? the civil war years. i sit down with john meacham who just published a new biography of abraham lincoln. but first, here's my take. history and current polling both tell us that the house of representatives will likely flip over to republican control in the november midterms. what happens then? actual governance will come to a standstill. there will be a flurry of investigations on everything, from the justice department to hunter biden to the border crisis. the january 6th committee will almost certainly be disbanded, and it is not implausible to imagine that president biden will be impeached. how did we get here? there are many reasons, but the central facilitating factor is surely the way that american politics has, over the last few decades, increasingly empowered the extremes of political

parties at the expense of the main stream. the primary system used by american parties to choose their candidates is extremely unusual. no other major democracy has one quite like it. primaries ensure that candidates chosen are selected by a sliver of the party. around 20% of voters. and this election is not at all representative. these are the most intense, agitated activists, often far more extreme in their views than run-of-the-mill registered republicans or democrats. add to this decades of computer sophisticated, computer enabled gerrymandering, and you get extreme candidates who run in safe districts where the only threat to them is a primary candidate who is even more extreme. "the washington post" has analyzed republicans running for senate, house, and certain statewide offices and found that a majority could be classified as election deniers. people who have in some way

questioned, challenged, or refused to accept the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. of these 291 candidates, 171 are running in safe republican districts. so what began as a fringe theory, promoted by donald trump but initially rejected by most of the republican party's leaders, has now become the majority view of the party. election denial is not a majority view in the united states. in an nbc poll, 57% of those asked said they would be less likely to vote for someone who claims trump won the 2020 election, while only 21% said they would be more likely to support an election denier. but between primaries and gerrymandering, the majority view gets drowned out. catering to the right wing base means ratcheting up the rhetoric. nancy pelosi is a would-be dictator. biden is a communist. democrats are pro criminals.

margorie taylor greene has said, democrats want republicans dead. they have already started the killing. unquote. the alternative candidate selection used before the age of primaries and most other major democracies is the smoke-filled room. a per gortive description even before we knew smoking killed you. in this system, candidates are selected by party bosses. but consider who these bosses have traditionally been. alderman, mayors, governors, and legislators at all levels. these are people who have won general elections by appealing to the entire electorate. people who have a feel for the broader public. no group of party elders, for example, would ever choose a candidate like herschel walker. primaries, by contrast, entrust candidate selection to the most radical section of the party. social media has added fuel to the fire by amplifying the noisiest and angriest voices

within the party, who are an even smaller group than primary voters. while the problem is far worse and much more dangerous on the republican side, these pressures do also affect democrats. many of the issues where joe biden is constrained in his actions, in particular, immigration and energy, are ones where the activist base of the party has much more extreme views than the main stream. and pivoting to the center as pennsylvania candidate john fetterman did on fracking in recent months is increasingly difficult, where you can easily play old clips of a politician before he changed his mind. in a recent piece in "the new york times," max fisher describes how the recent dysfunctions of british politics can be attributed to the two main parties choosing over the last two decades to adopt more of a primary type system to select their leader.

the labor party ended up with the totally unelectable leader, like jeremy corbyn, and rejected a moderate. the recent conservative party travails illustrate the party perfectly. liz truss, with her impractical warmed over thatcherism, came in third in votes from elected members of parliament, the old system of party bosses, but she was a darling of the broader party membership, which is highly unrepresented of the british public and they were the ones that made the final decision. it is not an accident that germany and france have both been run largely by centrists in a time of populism. they have chosen to keep to old system of democracy, based on the principle of majority rule. in america and to an extent in britain, democracy has become minority rule, and the minority holding power is unrepresentative, angry, and increasingly radical.

go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my "washington post" column this week. and let's get started. on wednesday, russia's is president vladamir putin claimed that ukraine was planning to use a so-called dirty bomb, a claim that his underlings had been peddling for days. the accusations were denounced by ukraine and western allies. they say this rhetoric is nothing more than a russian attempt to ratchet up tensions and escalate the conflict. so how far will putin go to turn the tide of a war that has not gone his way? joining me now is boris bondarev, who spent 20 years as a russian official, a diplomat based at the united nations in geneva before resigning in may over the war in ukraine.

he's one of the highest level officials to defect over the war, and he joins us now from switzerland. welcome, boris. i want to start by asking you to describe why you think russia's decision making and decision making apparatus got to the point it did in the invasion of ukraine. because you have this fascinating foreign affairs essay, where you lay out really how russia has evolved as a kind of ruling elite in russia has gotten narrower, more and more insulated, more and more kind of divorced from the outside world. what do you think -- what happened that got us to where we are? >> first of all, it is the result or outcome of the evolution of the russian state, which we have witnessed for the last 20 years, and even longer. it has been getting more and more isolated from society, and

this is very dangerous, because people who work in government, they get this misinformation from their colleagues. and they make the decision based on this miscalculation and misinformation. we see it in the invasion in ukraine. >> in the kind of decision making structure you're describing, boris, i assume bad news does not travel up the chain. in other words, people are not likely to tell putin, mr. president, the war is going badly. the idea of trying to take kyiv was bad. all that kind of thing probably doesn't go up the chain as much as one would hope it would. >> i believe it is very close to truth, and i also believe that when you report some information high -- to the high command, to the leadership of the country, you have -- i mean in russia

today, you have to make it as pleasant and possible. of course, you don't want to displease or upset your bosses and the government itself. because it would -- it would jeopardize your career prospects. >> so when we hear this talk about a dirty bomb, first by putin's aides, lavrov, now putin himself, what do you think is going on inside? is this -- are they feeling a certain pressure and coming up with new -- new threats? >> i think that today russian leadership is actually at a loss. they are trying to adjust themselves to this new reality. and the reality says that russia may well lose this war. and, you know, it looks quite chaotic, really, because there is no strategy under this.

it is only some kind of random ways of looking for some opportunities to get themselves out of this very, very peculiar and very dangerous situation. >> what about the threat of a nuclear weapon being used? in your career as a diplomat, have you ever heard of the russian top leadership talking about the possible use of a tactical nuclear weapon? do you think putin is bluffing, or is this real? >> i don't think that the nuclear weapon threats are very real for now, and i think that they will not be real if putin gets a very clear signal from the international community that any use of nuclear weapons will have the gravest consequences for russia and him personally. >> and what about negotiations? imagine what you described, if putin feels like he's losing and that fear continues, that

fear continues, he could end up using a tactical nuclear weapon. what if the battlefield ends up, you know, in a stalemate? let's say the ukrainians take more territory, kherson, maybe kharkiv, but then it boggs down. at that point, could you imagine putin being willing to arrive at some kind of negotiated settlement, which would be a compromise for everyone? >> all the parties have absolutely different priorities and goals. so for now, i don't see any prospects for any real -- >> if what you say is true and we are in for just a long, protracted war, what happens inside russia? does putin's hold on russia -- so is it hold so strong that even a long war, maybe even more mobilization, would not weaken it? >> at first, i don't think that

putin is really ready for a long, protracted war. i think that his strength, his regime is a little bit overestimated now. and now we see in russia that there is a lot of confusion in the conduct of mobilization, for instance. and there is some kind of unrest and discontent within the population. so i believe that ukraine may not go on this path of long and protracted war. they are capable, but the ukrainian army is capable of defeating russian troops. and liberating their own lands. for that, they need the continued support from the west. but with that, i believe they can win this war in quite short terms, maybe in a few months. they have already shown a very significant progress in this. >> boris, fascinating insights. we appreciate you coming on. very, very useful.

>> thank you. thank you for inviting me. next on "gps," can the new british prime minister rishi sunak quash the chaos that has been plaguing his nation? that question when we come back. with leading ultra-capacity 5g coverage. t-mobile for business has 5g that's ready right now. i'm a performing artist. so a healthy diet is one of the most important things. i also feel the same way about my dog. we got her the farmer's dog sent in the mail.

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they're behind the dryer. realtor.com. to each their home. on tuesday, britain traded its shortest serving prime minister for its youngest, at least since william pitt in 1873. rishi sunak is the third person to hold this office and the first person of color to be the chief resident of number 10 downing street, and the wealthiest. and now he's charged with fixing his country's economy and its reputation.

is he up to the task? will he fair better than his predecessors? the editor in chief of "the economist" joins me now. you know, he's now in this job, but as you have written many times at the "economist" this is a tough position. britain is in trouble. can he fix it? >> well, we have someone who is competent. we can no longer take that for granted in britain. he was a very competent chancellor and someone who has a bloomberg terminal on his desk, and it's a testament to the level that britain has sunk to, that being competent, everyone is celebrating that we have a competent prime minister. but he is competent. but he has a huge task, a country that is financially much riskier than it was. the aftermath of miss truss' mistakes are there. now the markets have greater

faith in rishi sunak. but britain's problems are real. it's the only g7 economy whose average is still lower than pre-covid. we are an economy that is weaker and more risky, thanks to brexit. you and i have talked about this in the past a lot. i think brexit has left us weaker. and he has a torrey party that is tremendously divided. rishi sunak has created a cabinet of talents, he's reached out to the other factions. in the party. that's all great and he will bring stability, but the question is, can he really tackle the big challenges that britain has? it's a slow-growing economy. it's got big problems. i'm not yet sure he's going to be able to tackle those. but my goodness, it's much better than where we were. >> but as you say in your editorial this week, he was wrong on brexit. he was very enthusiastic about brexit. i think the evidence is clear. it's logical, you are cutting off preferential trade relations with your largest market, how can that be a good thing,

economically? # in a weird way, liz truss did have -- she was trying to respond to that problem by saying we're going to be the singapore, the low trade, low regulation. he needs an answer to this problem. >> that's completely true. people forget now that rishi sunak, you know, very early on was very enthusiastic about brexit. he thought it would make the from the very beginning. he wasn't one of those people that liz truss was, she was a remainder who became a brexiteer. he was always enthusiastic. he was wrong about that. and that's not the only thing he was wrong about. he was an early enthusiast of boris johnson as prime minister. again, not exactly a great thing for britain. so he has been wrong. in many ways the problem that britain faces today is a function of the decisions the country took that rishi sunak enthusiastically reported. it's easy -- >> we're now so desperate to have some competent that we forget that.

>> liz truss announced $40 billion in tax cuts and the markets went haywire. they were like oh, my god, britain's deficit and debt is out of control. around the same time, the estimate for biden's student debt forgiveness plan came out and it was not $40 billion, it was $400 billion. i mean, america can run up the biggest deficits. is the reserve currency such an advantage that economic policy doesn't matter? because you have a big editorial and your cover is on biden-omic. >> yes, it is the privilege that the u.s. has, and having the reserve currency means that you can do a lot more than other countries can't do. i don't think it's infinite, but it gives the u.s. a much, much easier time of that. you're right, we have a bigger look at bidenomics, and the cover says that inflation isn't the only problem. everyone is focused on inflation, and rightly so.

if president biden does that -- lose in the midterms, but what's going on is a much, much broader activist, interventionist industrial policy. the extraordinarily inaptly named "inflation reduction act." is a huge amount of subsidies for two goals -- >> one goal is to tackle climate change, the other is to have an approach towards competitive concerns about china. those focuses are right, but it's riddled with protectionism, with buy american clauses. that protectionism, we are probably one of the few -- some of the few free traders out there. but we really worry about that protectionism, because we think it will make it a much less effective at achieving its goals of climate change change and strengthening the u.s. economy. at the short term, inflation is the big question around here. that's ha everyone is focused

on. but look under the hood. the u.s. is in the midst of this really, really ambitious, activist industrial policy. i'm not at all sure it's being designed in the way it's going to be good for the u.s. in the medium and long run. >> it will be great for subsidies. for certain industries. you point out the total amount of subsidies the u.s. is giving out is well more than france. and the u.s. has always mocked france for having this protectionist industrialized policy and by the way, french policies have always failed. your fear is the americans will also. >> absolutely. >> always a pleasure. >> thank you. coming up next on "gps," america got a dismal report card this week, perhaps unsurprisingly, kids have struggled and suffered greatly at school in the last three years. we will talk about that report card and a solution to the problem when we come back.

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this week, the united states released its first national education report card in three years. and the country's performance was worthy of a long stint in detention. fourth and eighth graders recorded the largest drop in math scores ever. reading scores fell to levels last recorded in 1992. inequalities between rich students and poorer peers deepened. it's the latest, most representative evidence of the crisis in the u.s. the question is how do we fix it? my next guest says he has the answer. he's the ceo of khan academy, a nonprofit that provides lessons to students online. welcome. so when you saw this evidence to begin with, what was your

reaction? >> it wasn't surprising. i don't think i was alone there. but i think what is maybe a little surprising even before this is why people weren't viewing this as an emergency even before the pandemic. to reframe some of the numbers you cited, things went down in math and reading. the worst results were in eighth grade math, where prepandemic, about a third of students in the u.s. were proficient in math. that was pretty horrible. and now it's a fourth. so even though things got dramatically worse, it was pretty bad before. it wasn't just the pandemic, although the pandemic made things worse. >> so in some ways, the kind of central question, and you're the perfect person to ask this to, during the pandemic, large amounts of the education that people were getting in person went online. and it seems like that online experience was terrible for

educational outcomes. now, you're the king of online education. so why did online education not work during the pandemic? >> it's a great question. i always like to differentiate between online versus remote. what did happen during the pandemic, and you can't blame anyone. anyone, they didn't have a lot of time to plan this, the same traditional academic model where you have 20, 30 students in the classroom listening to lectures, that just got transferred to zoom somewhat overnight. now students are sitting in on zoom calls for four, five hours a day. you can imagine those were very, very disengaging. so what happened during the pandemic, it wasn't the technology, it was just that it became even more disengaging a lot of kids fell off the radar and weren't able to engage in their education. on the other hand, you can do online learning. when khan academy is used best, it's used inside of a classroom with people next to each other.

students can work on their own pace on things that are relevant to them. the teacher can walk around and have more human-to-human interaction than they would get in a lecture based classroom. the students are encouraged not to put their fingers on their lips but encouraged to talk to each other and help each other. it's not about online versus not online, so it's about are you leveraging human connection? are there ways to engage students, versus things that are less engaging. and the less engaging is what happened during the pandemic. >> it seems to me, sal, a lot of what makes people learn is the social setting, that they're with friends, they're trying to impress their peers or competing with them, or there's a social element to it, which almost makes it comfortable for the education for them to receive the education. but to just sit in front of a zoom for five, six hours, all you're getting is the education, but none of that social dynamic, seems very, very suboptimal.

>> no one grease more than -- agrees more than myself with that statement. but what's interesting right now is, the solution isn't to just say hey, we're never going to use a computer again, but we have the students back on campus. they can engage with each other. what is the optimal engagement? that is don't just keep shepherding them lock step, half the kids are bored, half are lost. let them get as much practice and feedback as possible on things that are actually going to be useful for them. >> the online part allows for that tailoring of each student matching up to the level and problems that they can deal with, right? >> that's right. you know, before -- if you go back -- 2300 years back intentionally, the time of alexander the great, he had a personal tutor named aristotle. 200 years ago, we had a utopian idea of let's have free math education.

we said we can't give everyone an aristotle so we borrowed tools from the industrial revolution. let's apply some lectures to them. every few weeks we'll get assessment. the kids doing all right will track them into the top of the labor pyramid, some kids in the middle, some at the bottom. that's not acceptable any more. and then the pandemic just put a bigger spotlight on. we can't do the same as usual, as hope to get a better result, you know, as you know, that's often times the definition of insanity, expecting a different outcome by doing the same thing. we have to move to the level of personalization trying to approximate what alexander the great did, but we can't have one on one for everybody. so this is where online personalized learning is important. this is all free. i'm not selling anything. it's not for profit. everyone listening can use it. they can tell their school about it. the more people that use it, i have to go out there and raise more money for it.

>> i always get smarter listening to you. always a pleasure. >> thanks, fareed. next on "gps," at a time of deepening division, even talk of a civil war in the united states, what lessons can we all take from the age of abraham lincoln? find out in a moment. s music! dare to shake things up, with the all-new lexus rx. never lose your edge. ♪ vicks vapostick. strong soothing... vapors. help comfort your loved ones. for chest, neck, and back. it goes on clear. no mess. just soothing comfort. try vicks vapostick. (vo) with verizon, you can now get a private 5g network. so you can do more than connect your business, you can make it even smarter. now ports can know where every piece of cargo is. and where it's going. (dock worker) right on time. (vo) robots can predict breakdowns and order their own replacement parts. (foreman) nice work. (vo) and retailers can get ahead of the fashion trend of the day with a new line tomorrow.

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with u.s. midterm elections just over a week away, half the country's voters believe america is too politically divided to solve its own problems. that's according to a poll which also showed 70% of voters believe u.s. democracy is under threat. let's remember the past to help us understand the present. today, i want to look back more than a century and a half to the

most divided moment in american history, when lincoln was president. the pulitzer prized winning historian jon meacham released a biography on lincoln called "and there was light." meacham occasionally advises joe biden and he now joins me. occasionally advises me, as well. >> to the same effect. >> do you think there is a parallel between, you know, when you look at the data, it shows that we are the only time we were similarly divided was after the civil war. do you think there are comparisons, analogies to be made here? >> i do. i was hoping for years for the last five years, that this was more like 1933 or 1968, where there were clashing visions, but a fundamental acceptance of the protocols of politics. i don't think that's true. i think that the persistence of

the big lie, trump's insistence that the election was stolen, and its ancillary impacts has created an 1850s feel. it's a clash of visions that has almost everything to do with power and identity. and democracies do not long endure, as lincoln would say, if we do not mutually respect the rules of the road. and we can argue about whether the constitution should do this or that. but in that case, in the 1850s, there was an entire breaking of that compact. i worry that we're within hailing distance of that today. >> you said it was centered around identity. of course, it did -- the south sense of its distinctive identity, the peculiar institution it was called. you it like that today? when you talk to some trump supporters, they say no, it's not about race or culture.

but it has the feel. the issues that tend to be immigration or, you know, this -- how you teach american history, critical race theory. >> it's power. and democracies only work if power is marshalled and managed, not if it is seized. and that's what the white south was doing, my native region. they chose to define human rights in a very limited way. they exalted property rights over individual rights. and decided to secede from the union, ending an experiment which however imperfect which created a world that gave us 139th, 14th, and 15th amendments, which ultimately gave us an ugalitaran future. lincoln believed the declaration of independence had to be the

national star and thatp amission kay of the meaning of those words was, in fact, what the country was about. the white south decided no, all men were not created equal. and lincoln, i think, to the benefit of humankind, decided that, in fact, if we could not bend the arc of a moral universe toward justice, if the declaration could not be made real, then we're in a hobbsian state of nature. >> and lincoln was saying this in a global context which democracy was weakened. he talked famously about the last best hope, and people focus on the "best" part, but he's also signalling that look, if we go down, things look bad and we have been living through a decade of democratic backsliding and decay almost everywhere in the world. >> there is no question that lincoln saw democracy and liberty and the american

experiment as entwined. that if popular government failed here, then the divine right of kings would reassert itself. or the divine right of aristocracies. in this case, it was an aristocracy of race and property. and had that crisis not been resolved the way it was, then yes, he believed that the revolutions of 1776, 1789, of 1848, the of, for and by the people was a phrase he got from parker, and he also got it from hungary -- >> the hungarian. >> who was a vital figure toward here, sort of like lafayette did late in life. >> you can find statues to him all over new york. >> that was this -- we forget this, but that was a global story, a global story that society should not be organized vertically. popes and princes and kings, but had to be horizontal. not to lionize him beyond his

measure, but i wanted to do the book because i wanted to understand not just how he did it, but why. and he grew up in a theological atmosphere that was antislavery. he believed in a kind of universalist fatherhood god, brotherhood of man. in no way a conventional christian. but there are these moments he could have decided to do something else. >> the tragic element of the comparison you're making is that the way we resolved our differences that last time around was through a bitter civil war where 600,000 americans died. >> absolutely. >> how do we solve it this time? >> it's a terrible analogy because of the way the 1860s ended. and i don't think we'll have amassed armies. we are having civil chaos, punctuated by violence, at a level as you say, statistically, it's clear this is rising.

i don't think we're going to be at that scale of mass warfare, but the scale of the argument, who are we? are we willing to give as well as to take? that argument is as fundamental. >> john meacham, always a pleasure. write more books. so we can get you on >> thank you. next on "gps," under xi jinping, china's once roaring economy has lost steam. yet he showed no signs of changing course at last week's party congress. i'll dig into these missteps in a moment. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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china's communist party unveiled its new inner circle last week and it's stuffed with xi jinping loyalists. pro-market liberalizers are gone. gone for the heady days of reform and opening that characterized china. gone also is china's growth miracle. its economy which grew by 10% a year for decades, has slowed dramatically on xi's watch and will likely grow by low single digits this year.

in fact, in a striking piece of analysis, it's written in the financial times that china's economy is likely to grow at a measly 2.5% in the coming decades. he notes that commentators thought china would overtake the u.s. economy by 2020. now it seems unlikely that would occur until 2060, if it ever does. what happened? well, there are basically two ways economies grow. adding more workers and pushing productivity higher, meaning each worker produces more goods and services. as far as total workers goes, china faces a serious shortage. its working age population has peaked and is projected to fall steeply in the next few decades. this was set in motion long ago under the one child policy. xi has ended that policy and tried to encourage people to have more children without any success. china now has one of the lowest

fertility rates in the world, with fewer and fewer workers and more and more retirees. that means the country's future depends on productivity. china's boom since the 1980s was fundamentally about moving away from a state-directed economy toward a more free market economy. productivity growth jumped, but it has slowed considerably since then. of course, it was easier to take a backwards economy and make it more productive by the time xi took over, the low hanging fruit had been picked. but whatever the hand he was dealt, xi has played it very badly. he's favored inefficient state owned enterprises he ultimately controls over nimble private companies. for instance, he made it difficult for the private sector to get loans but naumeot for st owned companies. he has clamped down on tech companies. they slapped a record fine on

alibaba, and scrapped their financial arm. another example, officials banned the country's main ride hailing app, didi, from app stores. there was one area where xi's predecessors used state levels to drive productivity. massive spending on infrastructure which facilitated c commerce and travel. but these approaches are petering out. they note it used to take about $4 of capital to produce $1 in gdp growth. by 2019, it took almost $8 of capital to produce that same $1 of gdp growth. part of the reason is the institute points out is china has nor infrastructure than many developed countries, adding more doesn't really make sense. meanwhile, the real estate sector turned into a spectulative and wasteful bubble.

xi deserves some credit for popping that bubble by reining in lending but he's been slow to repair the damage. on infrastructure, he's sticking with the old playbook. china has embarked on a $1.1 trillion infrastructure spending spree. another focus of xi's is to make china more self-sufficient and get companies to direct more technologies. the state directed industrial policy may flunk, but it has unnerved other country as has his aggressive step on the world stage. they have tried to block china from acquiring their companies and acquiring microchips, it used to come from lorne techniques or embedding foreign technologies into their products. now china is losing access to foreign innovation, and according to the institute, that could reduce its gdp by about to 8% in 2050 compared to what it

would have been. and we haven't even mentioned xi's strict zero covid policy which has shut down economic activity in various places and checked off business travel and tourism for almost three years now with little prospect he will reverse course in the near future. the last few decades have been shaped by the economic rise of china. what will the next few decades look like if china stagnates? that's the question we should all be thinking about. and thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. t-mobile for business has 5g that's ready right now. i got tai last december. i've spent almost every minute with her since.

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