this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria.

today on the program, election day in america is almost upon us. >> we are going to bring it. >> at stake, control of congress. >> it's a choice. between two vastly different visions for america. >> will the democrats lose their slim majority? i will talk to bill maher about what tuesday's results will mean for the next two years. then the u.n.'s annual climate conference began today in egypt. a damning new report tells us the world won't come close to meeting its temperature target for the end of the century. but in all the gloom, there is some good news about climate action. i will talk to an expert. and left wing populism beat out right wing populism in brazil last week, but can lula succeed in getting the economy

to grow and bringing the country back together when he comes to power? we'll explore. first, here's my take. as an immigrant to america who has traveled a great deal around the world, i've always been certain that america was the best place for people hike me. people who look different with brown skin and a strange name. i remember coming to america as a college student and feeling the openness and generosity of a country born of and made by immigrants. when visiting britain around the same time, i could sense that i was treated politely but as an outsider. in 2019, the tweet from britain's chancellor ex caught my eye. britain is the most successful multiracial democracy in the world.

he tweeted something similar last week, after the appointment of rishi sunak as prime minister of great britain. so i spent some time looking at the data. the migrant integration policy index, as of 2019, the u.s. is in the top ten, but in the bottom half. in general, in recent years, the average country study has improved its score by two points. the united states, on the other hand, has retreated by two points. the story is largely one of the rise of the rest. countries like canada and new zealand have long been welcoming to immigrants, but have gotten even better. and any would-be immigrant with technical skills and strong academic standing knows it is easier now to get a green card equivalent in canada or britain or ireland or sweden than in america. and since the trump crackdown in every area of immigration, from business visas to work permits, the experience has become even more hellish and demeaning for people trying to come into the united states. others have also become far more tolerant.

if you look at a recent pew survey on opportunities on national identity, you see that major european tolerant and inclusive. the percentages that say to truly belong you need to be born in that country is the same in france, britain, germany and the united states now. and those who say you must be christian, 14% in france, 23% in germany, and a higher 35% in america. britain did not score as high on the migrant integration policy index as america, but the more you observe the day-to-day reality, the comments do not look like an empty boast. though canada likely does better than the united states or the united kingdom on any objective set of measures. when boris johnson resigned, of the eight candidates who came forward to replace him, four were ethnic minorities.

not one, unlike bobby jindal, have converted. and sunak took his oath of office and lit lamps at his residence. the torrey party, the party of the old english aristocracy, has had an explosion of diversity. in contrast, about 90% of republicans in congress are white and virtually all the republicans are christian. much of the credit here should go to dave cameron, the conservative prime minister who took it upon himself to make his party more open to minorities of all kinds. and once the party put out the welcome mat, it was not a surprise that so many migrants proved to be national torys. after a, the indian community in britain is conservative, the same is true of indian

americans, but because the republican party so powerfully signals its embrace of white, racialist politics, it turns off many minorities. who would agreed with them on most issues. britain does not have affirmative action policies, which might explain why there is less resentment to minorities who have succeeded there. americans have had distinct advantages that have allowed it to thrive, an open market, business friendly policies. but many of these have been copied by other countries. i've always believed that being truly welcoming to immigrants was america's last and greatest competitive advantage. it does appear that now, even there, others are catching up or even beating the united states of america at a game that it invented. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my "the washington post" column this week,

and let us get started. let's get right to the main event today. my interview with bill maher, a comedian and a talk show host and also in my mind one of the most astute political observers of this era. maher is the host of "realtime" on hbo and hbo max. hbo and cnn are both part of warner brothers discovery. i was a guest on his show on friday night, then turned the cameras around on him. bill maher, welcome to the show. >> great to be here, as always. >> so your final commentary, the new rules on your friday show -- >> you were there. >> -- you talked about something that i think is very important, which is why does the american electorate not seem to realize that in some have i important

sense, democracy is on the ballot in the sense that you have these very large numbers, hundreds of republican candidates, who are saying that the last election was fraudulent, who seemed determined to say things like we're going to make sure the republicans always win. why is this not a bigger issue? >> well, it's definitely going to happen, first of all. it's not a bigger issue, because you can't convince people that they're going to miss something that they never knew they had to begin with. we stopped teaching history and civics in this country a long time ago. people have no idea about checks and balances. they have polling on this, you know, the three branching of government. there's three? okay, great, what are they? so it's very hard to scare people about something they don't know exists to begin with. and people live day-to-day, crime, inflation, that's the kind of stuff that is the price at the pump and all that. i get it. it's important stuff. and all the woke stuff that they don't like that's driving people away from the democratic party.

this is just too abstract. again, we just didn't prepare people when they were young to understand what democracy is. >> and it feels like it's happening around the world, though. in brazil, they had this election. yeah, lula won. but by one percentage point. as you look here, i'm struck by how can it be that herschel walker is tied with warnock? i mean -- >> well, i did a whole thing about it a couple weeks ago. i think what it is, the worse the candidate is on the republican side, and in the same vein as trump himself, who obviously stole from charities, had a fake university, made fun of the handicapped, had sex with porn stars when his wife was nursing their child. just horrible things. and that guy in alabama, judge roy moore who used to go to the

mall and the -- it's just -- the worse a candidate is, the more it says to a certain kind of voter, let us show you how much we don't like what you're selling. we will vote for anybody who doesn't have a "d" by their name, because we just don't like your socialism, your identity politics, your sort of weird loathing, self-loathing for being white, which is not really helping minorities or anything. it's just sort of a kink, i think. some of the stuff that goes on in the schools, trying to get kids who are way too young to appreciate ideas about race and gender that should come later in life. i've been saying it for years, the democrats just, to a lot of people, strike them as the party of no common sense. and, you know, i think you said it on my show friday night, if

you don't -- if you can't get common sense across to people, they're not going to believe you economically. >> what about abortion? that haz surprised me, the degree to which i thought this was a social issue which would help democrats. >> my me too. i'm surprised about it, too. i guess part of it is that people are just very quickly got used to the idea that we're going to live in a country where it's legal some places and not others. i mean, there are medical tourists that go on all the time in the world. if you're -- you need a gallbladder operation and you're in riyadh, you go to cleveland. people go to canada all the time. i guess they absorb it very quickly. oh, if i need an abortion, it is a big operation. i'll go to california. and they just took that in. and these other issues went to the floor. and also maybe they got it through their heads. you know, you can prevent pregnancy.

you know, i'm pro-choice, but, you know, you can. and i guess they just figure they will be a little more safe or go out of state and it was not an insufferable problem. >> we've known this, at the end of the day with the social issues, always metes out to the republicans. in other words, the intensity of feeling seems to be greater on the pro life side. is it the single issue on which you will vote? that seems to motivate more people on the right than the left. >> it's interesting. they used to say the electorate was economically conservative and socially liberal. it might be the opposite economically, they want the free money. they want the handouts. they're economically quite liberal, as in give me my goodies. socially, a little more conservative. >> you're absolutely right. think about what happened to the parties. the republican party has moved left on economics.

doling out money, the days of balanced budgets is long gone. that's been fine and easy to do. the democratic party has more difficulty moving right on culture, getting to a centrist position. they're pandering to their liberal groups. republicans have been able to move very easily. >> biden had the tiktokers into his office about a week ago as a hail mary with this election, and that, you know, generation doesn't vote very much. but if they do, they think they're going to vote democratic. and he went all in on gender reconstructive surgery which that generation thinks is the civil rights movement of their time. you know, for the people who i've tried to convince that biden is a centrist, i get it when they see something like that and they say, what do you mean biden is a centrist? here he is going all in on this issue. he just completely sold out.

i say sold out because america is an outlier on this issue now. i mean, the uk, sweden, lots of countries are saying of course we're liberal places just as i am, just as this country. we believe trans is a real thing. we're not saying that. we're just saying hawaii, whoa whoa, whoa. the uk put it in words saying some of this is trendy. teenagers can be trendy. you can't have it that -- like for some reason, it's just so much more popular in liberal areas. why would it be regional if it's a biological issue? just to stop and ask this question or questions like this without being called phobic. and if he had just done a sister soldier thing there, and said look, i believe trans is a real thing and people should have the full respect and dignity of anybody else in this country. but can we just pump the brakes a little? i think he would have done himself a lot of good. but it's not just in him.

>> do you think it's not in him? or he's reading the electorate? the thing that strikes me strange about joe biden, you remember when obama picks him, obama was picking him a little bit to balance the ticket to the right. >> of course, correct. in other words, obama was seen as this -- >> correct. >> -- this black -- >> he was seen as black, period. >> and people thought he was very liberal. and joe biden was this traditional white. now he's clearly on policies to the left of obama. >> because the party moved there and he doesn't want to go against what he sees as the base. you know, i just think that's -- the democrats are going to find out that was not a great strategy. next on "gps" -- >> what happens in 2024 is trump is going to try the coup. he tried in 2020, which was plainly an attempted coup, no other way to look at it. this time he's going to have in place this army of deniers who will support him, and he is going to show up, i promise you.

>> much more of my interview with bill maher after the break.

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a podcast "club random." let's talk about all this cancel culture and stuff that you've been writing a lot about. what i want to ask you is it particularly troubling issue for you as a comedian? because at some level, isn't every joke in some way offensive if -- you're trying to -- >> absolutely not for every comedian. most comedians don't go anywhere

near something offensive. it's not the way they work. it's just not the material they interests them. they're talking about other things. me, yes. obviously it has always been an issue with me. it's -- but it's not just people in show business. it's not just famous people any more who worry about cancel culture. there are a lot of people going through their high school yearbook like oh, my god, did i wear a sombrero or something? lots the regular people have been canceled for some guy says something he thinks is innocuous. he's saying white lives matter too, and he doesn't quite understand, he's not of that generation, why we want a particular focus, because black lives have always been more at peril. there's a reason why that was a saying and became an organization.

nobody just set, hey, hey, this and this, and he might have said, okay, i get it. you're just gone. people are just very tired of walking on eggshells in this country. that's something democrats are also fighting in this election. people don't like it. this is also part of why elon musk taking over twitter is just such an enormous controversy with so many people. 99% of twitter employees voted democratic. even if you're a democrat, you shouldn't think that's a good thing, to have a major what really is a news organization, because people get their news from there. but the entire organization thinks one way. that's the very definition of group think. >> part of the problem is, we are sorting ourselves into these two tribes. it feels like college education and urban/rural are the two big dividers. make maybe religion would be the third. so you get these urban, college educated secular people on one

side, and then rural, more religious, less college education. and there's just so much tribal suspicion, hostility. it feels as if it's not about issues any more. >> no. i keep trying to tell people who don't want to breathe the same air as a trump voter. you can hate trump. you can't hate all the people who voted for him. it's half the country. and on top of that, i really believe, i've always believed, being conservative is a personality trait before it's a political position. it's just something that's very innate. think of some uncle you had, it was a great guy, but it was a conservative, it's like some people are messy, some people are neat, some people adventurous, and then the politics comes in. some of it has to do with the way you were brought up, but there are just people who are

going to be conservative, and you're going to have to live with them. you can't own them or destroy them. they're not going to self-deport and they're about to take over the government and they're not going to give it back. >> so what is going to happen? let's assume both houses go republicans. >> well, this is what i was saying on friday at the end of my show. i thought the audience was stunned as they should be. but they shouldn't be. this has been going on for a long time. i've been saying it for a long time. yes, i mean, unless there's a -- an oddity with the polling, it's going to be a very good day for the republicans. as we both have mentioned, the majority of republicans running for congress, senate, for house, and for statehouses, the people who are going to decide who is the president in 2024 are election deniers. they don't believe in this crazy idea that the guy with the most votes wins. so what happens in 2024 is trump is going to try the coup he

tried in 2020, which was plainly an attempted coup, no other way to look at it. but this time he will have in place this army of deniers that will support him and he is going to show up, i promise you. i will bet every bit of money i have, he will show up on inauguration day in 2025 whether he's the winner or not. and we'll see what happens and we'll see how much we look like other countries that we thought that could never happen to us. yeah, it could. yeah, it could. >> and he may have thousands of people with arms. >> as he did on january 6th. do you think they're going to stay home that this has happened again and they have all these people in place on their side? oh, no, my friend, it's going to be very interesting. >> on that cheery note, bill maher -- >> i wish i had better news to report. but you asked me. >> thank you for doing this. >> my pleasure. always. thanks again to bill maher.

if you want to see him live, he will be at madison square garden november 12th. next on "gps," climate change is back atop the headlines, thanks to the u.n.'s annual climate conference which started today in egypt. and a damning report about how much the planet is likely to warm. we'll help you make sense of it all when we come back. with leading ultra-capacity 5g coverage. t-mobile for business has 5g that's ready right now. ♪ ♪ ♪ what if we- ♪ what is that?

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a new report from the u.n. says temperatures will likely rise by 2.8 degrees celsius, or 5 degrees fahrenheit, by the end of the century, if current policies don't change. that's well above the paris

agreement goal of keeping warming below 3.6 degrees, ideally 2.7 degrees fahrenheit. this was ahead of the u.n. climate conference, which began today in egypt. joining me to talk about all of this with some surprising good news is catherine hale, a climate scientist at texas tech university, and author of "saving us, a climate scientist's case for hope and healing in a divided world." catherine, thank you so much for joining us. i want to start with -- it is a sort of good news, which is the context of all this that you are often so good at reminding us of. where were we 20 years ago when people began to think seriously about climate change, what were the predictions then? >> 20 years ago, we were on a path to at least a four-degree celsius warmer world by the end

of the century. and the consequences of that much warming that fast are almost unimaginable, both for human civilization, as well as many of the other living things that share this planet with us. 30% of the world's species would go extinct and we would not be able to function, our water, food, agriculture system with that much change in many places and the world. so today, we are still heading for 2.8, and that is still too high, but it is a lot less than we were heading for 20 years ago. >> what have been the major contributors to this -- to this decline from where the projection was? we have begun to transition to greener energy, right? >> it has begun. as of this year, there are more people around the world working in the clean energy sector than in the fossil fuel sector. we already see transitions in places like the state of texas

where i live, where over a third of our electricity so far this year has been coming from clean energy. but there's no one thing that's done it. rather, every country is doing something different. so norway leads the world in electric vehicle adoption. and they have a target of cutting their emissions 55%. the eu has a repower eu plan, where they're increasing the share of renewables in their power grid. chile just passed an energy efficiency law. canada has a price on carbon. the united states has the "inflation reduction act." so there are many different actions happening around the world, but all of these add up now to a 2.8 degree warmer world rather than above 4 by the end of the century. >> one of the things you have often pointed out, it's not just that we need to do more to reduce emissions. we're also going to have to take out carbon dioxide from the fat -- the atmosphere, that in a sense that is baked into the system unless we take it out.

how does one take it out other than planting trees, and are we making any progress? >> well, that's exactly what we have to do. the metaphor i use is a swimming pool. if you think of the atmosphere as a swimming pool, we have natural levels of carbon in the atmosphere that keep us the perfect temperature for life. but at the beginning of the industrial revolution, we stuck a giant hose in the swimming pool, and that level of water has been going up faster and faster. so we have to turn off the hose, but our swimming pool also has a drain, and that is a nature-based climate solution. if we can invest in nature to take that carbon out of the atmosphere and put it back in soils and ecosystems where we want it, that is a massive climate solution and the nature conservancy, where i serve as chief scientist, has calculated could

take up to 37% of our carbon emissions through putting them back in nature. of course, it includes tree planting and more than that. restoring and protecting degraded ecosystems, protecting coastal wetlands, peatlands and grasslands and more. and then, i love the smart agricultural solution, like cover crops, where you put that carbon back in the soil where it helps to grow more food rather than putting it in the atmosphere. >> one of the things you talked about is climate equality. it feels like that's one of the reasons this meeting is the reasons this meeting is being held in egypt on the african continent, right? >> it absolutely is. when we look at which countries are responsible for all of the he heats-trapping gases or most of the heat-trapping gases causing

this problem and we look at the countries most vulnerable to the impact, it's almost completely the opposite. the 50% poorest people in the world have produced 7% of the heat trapping gas emissions causing climate to change. yet when you look at a list of which countries are most exposed to the stronger storms, the more intense droughts, the stronger heatwaves and floods happening as a result of climate change, at the top of that list are countries like mozambique, bangladesh, pakistan. not countries like the united states, canada, the uk and others who have done the most to contribute to the problem historically. >> boy. words of wisdom. katherine hayhoe, always a pleasure to have you on >> likewise. thank you. next on "gps," the brazilian politician known as lula went from blue collar work to the presidency to prison, and now he's headed back to the presidency. what will he do with latin america's largest economy this time? that story in a moment.

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brazil's presidential election pitted far right against left and the left won out last weekend when lula da silva beat the sitting president jair bolsonaro. by a margin of 1.8 percentage points. lula is set to govern latin america's biggest economy for a third term. he was president from 2003 to 2010. joining me now is shannon o'neil, author of "the globalization myth, why regions matter." let me ask you about lula, how should we think about this?

this is a guy who had a very successful run as president, was more moderate in many ways than people feared. but then resided over perhaps the largest corruption scandal in the world, and is now back out of prison, back into the presidency. what are you expecting? >> i expect lula 3.0 to be economically pragmatic, in part because of his inclination, and because of the team he seems to be assembling is fairly centrist. and also because of the politics and economic constraints he's going to face in brazil. this is a brazil that has been hit hard by the pandemic, hundreds of thousands of people lost their lives, businesses went out of business, and what we also saw in this election is that the conservative side of the political spectrum won many of the seats in the congress.

so he's going to be working with a more conservative congress than he did the last time. so on the economic side, we're going to see a fairly pragmatic and centrist lula administration. >> and what about the society and polarization? because in some ways, bolsonaro managed to take advantage of, you know, things that had been growing in brazil, the evangelical movement, a kind of social conservative, kind of a backlash against excessive social liberalism maybe. is the society very divided? and is there anything lula can do that will kind of bring it back together? >> we have seen it be very divided in the last couple weeks of the campaign, where some of the ugliest, not just in brazil but around the world with accusations flying of pedophilia, even cannibalism. and lula, in his acceptance speech said i'm going to bring brazil together.

there are not two bra sayles. there are two brazils, unfortunately, he's already trying to find that center on the social sides of things. i do think we are going to see in his cabinet, it's going to be more incremental and see him try to reform the center. that polarization is still there. in fact, we've seen it this last week in brazil with truckers and others blocking the roads and many protests appearing. so it will be a huge challenge for his administration. >> one of the big differences people are expecting is that bolsonaro seemed unconcerned about climate change, was more than happy to continue deforesting the amazon, all that kind of thing. and lula has criticized that and promised to change. but there is a fundamental problem. brazil is a huge agricultural exporter. a lot of the kind of policies that have made it hard to achieve climate goals are stuff that helps brazil's economy. >> i think this is one of the

biggest changes we'll see between the bolsonaro and lula administration. it's a sea change on deforestation, and yes, brazil depends on these exports, but brazil is becoming an international pariah on these issues. many investors have pulled out because of the deforestation. ium european investors and others with esg goals. we've seen companies who will no longer source from brazil because they're worried the beef and leather they bought was from deforested areas. so lula has the opportunity to bring back billions of international dollars. so i think this could be a good thing for brazil, and for those farmers and ranchers in ways that they haven't quite accepted yet. >> lula represents in a way the final movement of a really powerful left-wing swing that has taken place in latin america where almost every election that's taken place, the governments have moved left.

does he have the opportunity here to demonstrate that you don't have to go from kind of crazy right-wing populism to crazy left-wing populism, that there is a way for a left of center government to run the economy, or will people, without -- other countries in latin america view lula as an important role model? >> lula's administration is going to be a bellwether for this. he ran on keeping democracy in brazil. he has fellow travelers in that throughout south america and other parts of latin america. we see a democratic progressive left, we see a more authoritarian left. we see some dictatorships who pretend they're left. but lula could take the mantel

here -- mantle here. so while he will change brazil's view on the broader international stain in the spaces of climate change and the like, he also has an opportunity here to bring the region together, to lead with other like-minded, progressive leftist leaders who believe in democracy and try to do what you said, to deliver goods and services, to make democracy work for the average latin america in these countries. so it an opportunity. if he's unable to deliver it, i would expect more fringe populist leaders, whether from the right or left. but he looks to, with the things he's saying and the people he is appointing, he looks to try to go down this middle road that will be helpful for brazil and democracy throughout latin america. >> so maybe the center will hold, at least in latin america, if not in america itself. shannon, pleasure. >> my pleasure. next on "gps," bebe netanyahu is expected to return to power as israel's prime minister. but major questions are being raised about his coalition partners. i asked him about just those concerns, and we'll have those answers, back in a moment.

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when benjamin netanyahu was

on the show two weeks ago, he was hoping to be prime minister again. with this week's elections, his wish appears to be coming true. the sitting prime minister called bebe to congratulate him on his victory. but major concerns are being raised about whom will make up netanyahu's ruling coalition. i asked him those questions in my recent interview. i want to bring those questions and answers now. let me ask you about your election, your potential election. there are reports that you would align yourself with a couple of members of parliament who are potential members of the knesset very right wing, religious nationalists, one of whom comes out of the party that they had something to do with the assassination of rabin, was on a terrorist list for the united states.

would you legitimize a person like that, by asking him to join your government or do you even support it? >> well, first of all, you know, politics is a question of alternatives. the alternative government has right now muslim brotherhood party. that's the alternative between my government, potential government and theirs. they have the muslim brotherhood party which supports terrorists openly, which calls for the destruction of israel. it's amazing what no labor government, no left government in israel would do, the current government has done. >> would that justify your including somebody who has been regarded as a terrorist by the u.s. government? >> i'll get to that, i'll get to that. no, i'll get to that. i wouldn't support anyone who has. the people i'm talking about, i decide the policy. i have 30-some seats. they have much less than that. and ultimately, i've had such partners in the past, and they

didn't change an iota of my policies. i decide the policy with my party, which is the largest party by far in the country. we are a center right party, a responsible party. but we are not going to adopt norms for the government that we don't agree with. and some of these things i don't agree with, so they won't happen. >> you talk in your book about the charges, you know, being levied against you, the court cases and such. the leader of religious zionism, one of these right-wing parties, has come out with a proposed legal reform, which seems like they would undercut judicial independence in israel. do you support those, given that it does seem like it is in some way -- in some way you have a stake in this? >> no, you know, first of all, i wouldn't do anything that affects me. i think my trial is unraveling as it is.

it's -- the fact that it doesn't appear in the elections tells you something, because i happily -- information came out, and i think the charges are ridiculous. but it's not important. there's a legal process that will go through its completion. but more importantly, these suggestions do not oblige me. i believe i'm -- if i have to describe my political philosophy, i'm a 19th century democrat with a small d, and i believe that the principles that were put forward, namely that you have to have a balance between the three branches of government, that's important. in israel, you have to address some of that imbalance, because it's different from other parliamentary democracies. it's been thrown a little out of kilter, but you don't destroy one of these nodes of the triangle, because then you're really out of balance. whatever we do in judicial reform will be very measured and

responsible, and my record shows that. >> thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. ♪follow the yellow brick road♪ ♪follow the yellow brick road♪ ♪follow, follow, follow, follow♪ ♪follow the yellow brick road♪ ♪ heart-pounding design. intelligent technology. ♪ courageous performance. discover a new world of possibilities with a bold new take on the lexus rx. never lose your edge. (driver) conventional thinking would say verizon has the largest and fastest 5g network. but, they don't. they only cover select cities with 5g. and with coverage of over 96% of interstate highway miles,

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hello, everyone. thank you so much for joining me this sunday. i'm fredricka whitfield. just two mor