and paul gee osar off of their committees some months and years ago who have propagated many conspiracy theories. you can look for the republicans to launch a house probe of the withdrawal from afghanistan. they're going to go after dr. anthony fauci. >> brian todd, thank you very much. that does it for me but not for our cnn election coverage. anderson will be right back after this as well as wolf. let's hand things over to them. these are live pictures of vote counting right now in nevada where we expect to get a new announcement of results tonight. election officials working overtime right now to process hundreds of thousands of ballots

that could be critical in determining control of the united states senate. control of the house of representatives also remains in limbo this hour. the final outcome of the mid-term election still undecided two days later. we want to welcome our viewers here in the united states and around the world. i'm wolf blitzer with cnn's special coverage of election night in america continued. all eyes right now are on nevada and arizona where the u.s. senate contests remain undecided. this hour republicans hoping to oust two democratic incumbent. the democrats fighting back and fighting back hard. every vote in those key contests will help determine the final balance of power in the senate. right now 48 senate seats, republicans 49. two short of the 51 seats they need to retake senate control.

turning to the state of play in the house of representatives right now. democrats have won 192 house seats. so far republicans have 209. that's 9 seats short of 218 needed to reclaim the majority. 34 house seats still haven't been decided. to win house control republicans must win 7 seats in competitive contests that are still playing out right now. they are in a strong position to reach that goal as they're currently leading in 11 races. they must win 21 competitive seats. they are currently leading in 16 races. we're keeping a very close eye on races. we stand by for new vote counts in the key races. that includes the high stakes arizona's governor's race where katie hobbs is narrowly leading republican carrie lake. let's go to our correspondents right now in the key battle grounds and here in washington

covering this truly historic mid-term election. first, let's go to karen la. when can we expect new numbers, new results? >> reporter: we are expecting some new numbers in just a few hours, wolf. the news conference from the board of supervisors as well as steven richard basically laid out what it will look like in the next few days. tonight they anticipate that they will be releasing just a few more. it's an approximate, right? they're going to release as many as they can. approximately 60,000 ballots tonight. data from 60,000 ballots plus. last night it was 62,000. they anticipate it will be more tonight. those ballots are from friday night, saturday and monday. the so-called late earlies. the mail-in ballots that may have been filled out but then were received before election day. not the ones that were dropped

off on election day. the ones received before election day. i will leave it to the partisans to decide who that is going to favor, but that is what we have been told by the board of supervisors and the county reporter. they also addressed exactly how many they could release in the days to come. it is going to be about that pace. do the math yourself. this may take several days before they get through all of the so-called late earlies, the mail-in ballots, whether they were before or on election daze day because there are about 290,000 that were dropped off. so that's what they have to go through. that's the target. it is a slow process but it is slow, wolf, because they're trying to do it accurately. >> which is so, so important. as soon as we get those numbers, we'll of course share the numbers with our viewers. kyung lah with the story. nevada, another crucial ballot state.

g gary tuchman has the story. >> reporter: all 17 counties in this state are counting ballots as we speak. it's not unexpected. even if these key races weren't close in the state, that was the plan all along because nevada law, you send out your mail-in ballot by tuesday, it can arrive by saturday. they were always going to be counting until saturday. with we're at the clark county election building. also the most democratic county in the state. we're inside the building a short time ago to watch the tabulation. we're not allowed to take livid yes. we're not permitted to show the faces of the workers, a sad sign of the times i suppose. here's what we know, there are at least 50,000 ballots to be counted. they are all mail-in ballots that came from the postal services. there were more than 300 drop

boxes in the county. in addition to the 50,000, there's 5500 provisional ballots that need to be counted. 7100 that need to be cured. sometimes they don't sign them. if they sign them, they can be cured. there's a possibility up to 62,000 ballots that will still be counted here in this county. we can tell you, mail-in ballots used to be if you couldn't show up. now it's the major way of voting here in clark county. in this state there's 1.8 million active registered voters. each of them received a mail-in ballot. we do expect major yup date. >> we've spent a lot of time at the wall. >> night three, so many mail-in

ballots, the counts take longer. both of those western states do. right now this is why it's so important. we know, wolf, the georgia senate race is going to a runoff. it was 50-50 when we woke up on election day. now it is 49-48. that would get the republicans to 50 if it stayed. there we go. a little slow today. adam laxalt is the republican. he's ahead. remarkably close race in nevada. this is what is significant. gary is standing here in clark county where katherine cortez masto is ahead. this is what's important. it's 74% of the population. that's where most of the outstanding ballots are. if senator masto is running up a good lead, she can catch up. another significant since we were here late last night is that washo county, reno, rural areas above it, swing county.

little more than 15% of the population. senator masto was trailing. she's now ahead. incredibly close. why the ballots are so important. also important in the governor's race. republican has a little bit bigger lead. kyung lah watching a similar process play out in arizona. last night mark kelly's lead was 87,000, now 90,000. you still have hundreds of thousands of votes outstanding there, wfolf. i want to come out quickly to switch maps to understand the stakes. let's see where we are now.

let's go with the state of play. senator kelly, adam laxalt is leading here. if everything stayed as it is, zero guarantee, 50 republicans, 49, that would control yet again a georgia runoff would determine control of the united states senate. counts are possible. if we come back here, the democrats already have a majority because of the vice president. democrats need 50 and that would be to fight it out. the flip side of that math is if republicans win them both out west, republicans have the majority. these counts are critical. as we go forward, i want to come back to where we are. either scenario could play out or if they're split, georgia decides it all. >> arizona, critical, critical, critical. i want to bring in arizona secretary of state. thank you for joining us. how many outstanding votes are

there in arizona and what count yes, sir are you waiting on? >> well, good evening. so in arizona we're looking at a little over 600,000 ballots still outstanding that have to be verified and processed and we have heard from a few counties today. one of our counties, one of the smallest counties, greenly county is completely finished. one down, 14 to go. we have heard from three small counties already this evening and we are anticipating getting reports from the remaining counties tonight including the two big ones, maricopa and pima county. >> madam secretary. nevada has a rough number of 120,000. they're not quite sure because they can still have mail ballots to come in. are you certain? are you certain of the big universe? do you still have a question mark? >> no, we are certain of the

number. so we -- in arizona, ballots have to be received by 7 p.m. on election night. any ballots that might be received because somebody did not heed our advice and mail them beyond the deadline, yeah, they cannot be accepted at this point. >> madam secretary, the gubernatorial candidate over there, kari lake, continues to raise doubts about the election results and this is what she's now saying. she's saying election officials, she's saying, are intentionally, her word, intentionally delaying the results. i want to get your response to that charge. >> that is absolutely not happening. our elections officials are operating at the highest level of ethical standards and following the law and the elections procedures the way that they should be. all of our ballots that come in on election day after -- that have to be processed, those mail-in ballots have to go through a rigorous process that adds to our integrity of our

elections so it's ironic to us that people who are calling into question the integrity of this election and want faster results don't understand that it's actually those processes that add the integrity to our elections process. >> arizona assistant secretary of state. we'll stay in close contact with you. thank you very, very much. new votes from closely watched pima county, arizona. what that could mean for the close races there and control of the house and the senate. we'll be right back. e mood. feel the difference with downy. life... doesn't stop for diabetes. be ready for every moment, with glucerna. it's the number one doctor recommended brand that is scientifically designed to help manage your blood sugar. live every moment.

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welcome to an align gut. with control of the house still very much up in the air right now, let's take a closer look at some of the tightest congressional races right now. starting off in colorado, the controversial congresswoman lauren boebert is facing a very tough challenge from democrat adam frisch. lauren boebert, she's slightly ahead, 50.2% to 49.8%. 98% of the estimated vote is in. she has a lead of 1200 votes right now. it's close over there. john duarte and adam gray are vying in the newly redrawn 13th district. 40% of the estimated vote is in.

duarte is ahead by 203 votes. very close in the house contest. ken calvart is up there. 41%. only 41% of the estimated vote is in. calvert is ahead by only 453 votes. quite a few close races in the golden state. democratic incumbent katie porter trying to beat back a challenge by the republican. 59% of the estimated vote is now in. katie is ahead by 1552 votes. the balance of power where things stand for the control of the house of representatives.

you need 218 for the majority in the house. republicans have 209. they picked up 16 seats so far. democrats have 192. they've picked up 4 seats so far. 34 seats remain outstanding at this point right now. so here's the state of play. democrats must win 21 competitive seats. republicans must win 7 competitive seats in order to gain the majority in the house of representatives. let's go over to john king at the magic wall. these races in the house of representatives, they are very, very tight. it could be decided by a few hundred votes. >> in a word, wow. on day three of election week in america, this is not the map republicans had anticipated. let's be honest, it's not the map many democrats anticipated. it's a distance possibility. mathematically the democrats have a chance to hold the house

majority. the republicans have 209 seats. that leaves them 9 short. let's look at where they are leading. they are leading in enough to give them a narrow majority. the democrats are leading on 213 house races. let's go back here. 209. you look at this coast to coast. we have not called the races in maine and alaska. imagine if it comes down to that. they use ranked choice voting. we've been through this before. this is jared golden, running in a district donald trump carried. derek golden is at 49%. he needs to get to 50 otherwise they do rank choice voting. most people think jared golden

will win. republicans will pick up a few seats in new england. jared golden's race not decided. look at all of the blue. democrats doing their autopsy, where should we have worked harder? in the state of new york. republicans picking up the seat of sean patrick maloney. this is a sore spot for democrats. the republican candidate for governor lost. in running a competitive race, he helped several house candidates. if they get a narrow majority, that will help. republicans in the middle of america with inflation, blue and red states. competitive states. look at the blue in michigan.

didn't happen. staying in play here. you mentioned a couple of these still uncalled races. lauren boebert out here, colorado's third district. last night she was trailing by just shy of 100 votes. now 1229 votes ahead. she has built a lead with some votes to count. she is saying today she's confident she'll win. now they think there was a drag there. a key trump ally watching races on the west coast. when you look at those numbers right now, democrats resisting valiantly the national headwinds. the probability is a very narrow house republican majority. >> no doubt about it. as we were watching all of this. still ahead, a lot of second guessing going on among republicans about why the election didn't match their very lofty expectations. what that could mean for kevin

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yes you can! i can do better, too! see how easy it is to save hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, verizon, and at&t. talk to our switch squad at your local xfinity store today. control of congress clearly hangs in the balance tonight with all eyes on arizona where we're expecting new vote numbers to be released very soon. let's bring in dana bash. you're watching all of this so, so closely. >> that's right. i want to take it back to washington and that building behind me, what's going to happen assuming that republicans take over with the speaker's race.

you have new information on the fight kevin mccarthy is fighting for. >> kevin mccarthy is already fighting for his dream job in his own caucus. some republicans want to say he's in peril, jeopardy, some say vulnerable. a couple said to me odds are he's not going to be speaker of the house. we will wait and see, but there's one thing every republican source i said today, he doesn't have 218 votes. he is in a huge fight and it's not going to be easy. we all know the freedom caucus. they've already come out and many members said they will not commit to voting for him. then there are moderate republicans who are worried that mccarthy is going to make so many concessions to the freedom caucus that they won't like what he's doing.

finally there is the donald trump factor. we have known donald trump is very angry at kevin mccarthy for a long, long time. there are republicans who think he may get into this and be a spoiler and anoint someone else. >> we are going to pick up on that in a second. i first want to go to manu raju who has some reporting as well. >> behind the scenes, kevin mccarthy, he has not made commitments that the freedom house caucus members are making, they're asking mccarthy to give them more power to oust a sitting speaker assuming they don't like something he does. that is something mccarthy is resistant. he said he brought this party back to the majority after two election cycles. even though it may not be as big as they want, they are back in the majority.

we have not called that. he said he would not be a top down speaker the way speakers past have been putting some of his allies in position to be charged with a legislative agenda, to come up with an investigative agenda all of which showed the kind of speaker that he would be. the reason why it is significant is next week will be the first step in the process. there will be a vote to nominate him. he will have the votes for that. the bigger question is in january. he needs 218 votes on the house floor. 220 seats, 225, just a handful of republicans deflecting which could complicate that bid.

in talking to members of the freedom caucus, but they are certainly wanting him to listen to their commands. he said he did not commit to supporting mccarthy but said mccarthy was open to meeting with them. >> manu, thank you so much. i was talking to a source close to kevin mccarthy who said he is working the phones. he's trying to preempt a spectacle that he could have, once assuming. say one more time. republicans don't have the seats yet. the republican leader is saying once the seats are called, he'll be fin e.

>> last night he barely wanted to answer questions about this. he claimed he had the results. it lines right up with this. there's no way to control if he has 218 republicans to vote for him. >> they don't exist. dahna, how many of these have we covered over the years where there's a lot of drama in the leadup and usually it fizzles on the floor. i don't think this is going to be like this. >> fizzles on the floor meaning -- >> whoever is up will be walking into it. this is going to be nuts. that's more than enough in which mccarthy wants to be a speaker, i mean, let's put jim jordan out there? is he going to get whatever is left. >> matt goetz, there's someone else out there. we know donald trump does not p happened in this election. kevin mccarthy, someone donald trump likes sitting out there. angry. no daylight between them. i'm not saying it's going to happen. we've seen him come in before and cause trouble. >> if trump were to actually publicly break up with mccarthy, all bets are off in that scenario. don't you think? >> yeah. it could be.

>> give me a break. >> i'm not a huge kevin mccarthy fan. >> he's bent over backwards to do what he needed to do in trump world. coming up, new exit polls on key 2020 swing states and what do voters think of president biden when "election night in america" continues. before... & bath fitter. before.. & bath fitter. if you have a "before" bath, now's the time to call bath fitter to get a beautiful "after." with our unique tub over tub process, there's no mess or stress. spend smart on a beautiful new bath done right, backed by a lifetime warranty. join over 2 million happy customers who know: it just fits. bath fitter

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welcome back to cnn's coverage of this historic election. arizona is in the spotlight. numbers could determine whether democrats or republicans control the senate. thanks for joining us. there is a lot to talk about it out ahead. so what are we waiting for? >> we are waiting for them to count the votes. there is a big conversation going on now, i agree with david from earlier, because it matters to their head and the democrats hang on in arizona, then it

makes georgia very meaningful. there's stuff going on in georgia. mitch mcconnell is saying they're partnering with brian kemp to get out the vote. pending the outcome. >> it's going to suck. >> there are $271 million spent on the first campaign. i bet you spend more on the second. >> the only good thing. let's check in with mr. biden. hey, anderson, you were talking about the georgia runoff which may not be controversial. he was asked about looking ahead two years if, indeed, he's poised to get ahead of election.

they would like to see joe biden run for re-election. in florida, do you want joe biden to run? 27% yes, 70% no. in michigan, 27% said yes. 70% of michiganders say no. 28% say yes, 69% say no. wisconsin, we have 28% in the doorway. obviously biden won three of those four states. he would need those battle ground states if he was to be

respectful. we talked about this a lot in terms of -- >> well, no. these numbers are not caring -- can you tell where the president's numbers were lagging. he ended up winning a substantial victory two years later. the issue remains the same. think about this. we're sitting here tonight wondering about control of the senate are in disarray. we did an interview with ken

ready to be carried in on a rick shaw. now he's struggling to become the leader because they did so poorly. so, you know, i think there -- i can see why they and the white house are feeling better. i said what i said. the issue is not about biden and politics -- >> go ahead. >> isn't part of the -- you said what you said about biden. the numbers are what they are. at the same point tonight the so-called leader of the republican party has put out an incomprehensible skreed against you and they're clearly nervous. republicans wouldn't listen. why? >> it's not partisan it's just

that the country is screaming to move on. it's obvious in the numbers. the market demand is there. >> it's compared to what? compared to what? if he's sort of up against donald trump, well, maybe they might want to. what's the state of the economy at that point. as david points out, he was looking for a red wave and i got a trickle. i don't know. >> under read or over read. >> tough question to answer right now. i think a high likelihood is the economy is not going to be straight. the fed is going to try to beat inflation. maybe a soft economy people are going to be looking for change.

i feel like every election is a failed election. here's the problem. or is it? >> no. >> we all said here in our wisdom and forecast what was going to happen in the election. i for one was wrong. >> fair enough, it's through campaigns. >> let's talk about the governors. very good mid-terms. whitmer handling. yeah, their presidential. >> stars there. >> the most significant factor that we didn't know that got the polling wrong, made us think we were going to have a red waive,

young people came out. young people are screaming for something different. this is a moment they should heed. not wanting two octagenarians. they retained the governor's office. that has implication for the presidential race. it's important to have the governor in those states. a couple of them are prospects for the future, maybe even the next election -- >> election officials set to release new vote count numbers in a moment. so take care of that heart with lipton. because sippin' on unsweetened lipton

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we're on it. we're on it with jardiance. ask your doctor about jardiance. (fisher investments) in this market, you'll find fisher investments is different than other money managers. (other money manager) different how? aren't we all just looking for the hottest stocks? (fisher investments) nope. we use diversified strategies to position our client's portfolios for their long-term goals. (other money manager) but you still sell investments that generate high commissions for you, right? (fisher investments) no, we don't sell commission products. we're a fiduciary, obligated to act in our client's best interest. (other money manager) so when do you make more money, only when your clients make more money? (fisher investments) yep. we do better when our clients do better. at fisher investments, we're clearly different. republicans try to figure out why their anticipated congressional sweep failed to materialize. new vote numbers coming soon from arizona could push closer to a narrow victory, but some blaming the trump factor for the disappointing results. wondering what comes next.

i want to bring in kristen holmes. new information from your source about the former president's plans to announce another run for the white house. >> that's right, anderson. so the invitations for that event, which is tuesday, are anticipated to go out as soon as tonight. this despite the fact that so many of trump's advisers and allies are asking him not to announce until after the georgia runoff. they are telling him he will be blamed if walker loses, that him announce willing pour money into the race for warnock as well asner jazz democratic voters. now as for where trump's mind is, yes, he is still planning to announce on tuesday, but he is also very focused on one person, and that person is florida governor ron desantis. there is no questioning the fact that desantis has had an enormous amount of momentum after his win. we have seen multiple republicans, including conservative media essentially out the desantis as the new leader of the party and throw trump to the side. and that has not gone unnoticed. now trump had promised donors and allies he would stay away

from desantis before the midterms after a swipe at him that had people enraged. but he is not anymore. he released a statement. he took credit for desantis' win in 2018. he said that desantis is disloyal because he is talking wanting to run, that he never said he wouldn't run if trump did. so he's already out there. >> i got to say, a statement implies that it is a well thought out, like, you know, actual sentences that are coherent that have a subject and a verb and some nouns. this is a rambling screed. it's quite something. >> well, you can see where his energy is at. this is what he is focused on. i will know that no one right now is at mar-a-lago. >> a lot of places. >> the entire club has been evacuated. he is there alone until friday. so he has a lot of time to focus on this stuff. >> it's fascinating. kristen, thank you so much. i want to talk about it here. elisa, i know you're waiting for

your invitation announcement. it is fascinating. i had not read this screed until recently. and i had to read the first couple of sentences because they do not actually make sense. >> oh, it's nonsensical. and there is an actually better version if you want the say that on truth social that goes even further. this is the professionalized version. he is looking for everyone to blame. desantis is the focal point. he wants to take credit for desantis' tremendous success. but those around trump are also copping after mitch mcconnell, kevin mccarthy, ronna mcdaniel. kevin mccarthy's got the worst tightrope he's got walk for the next two months because he does have to stay in his good graces. mitch mcconnell doesn't need a thing from donald trump. every republican governor just elected doesn't need a thing from him. i'm curious what will vips from the republican party even show up at this event. >> it has the quote, unquote advantage of sunshine. all caps. >> this is referred to as covid, right? >> the advantage of sunshine. >> so the thing about the announcement is everybody has

tried to talk him out of doing this on tuesday. i spoke with the source who is close to him today who said actually we tried to talk him out of doing it on tuesday. we want him to do it in january. we really want him to wait. don't do it during the holiday season. people are sick of politics. you're going to have the stage to yourself in january. people will pay attention. and the source i spoke to said look, nobody knows. the invitations, the invitations are going out tonight. did you just get yours? >> i was going to read something. this is from my west point classmate and future candidate as well, mike pompeo. conservatives are elected when we deliver, not when we rail on social media. >> well, that's a different tone from mike pompeo i might add. >> i think people are kind of jumping into the deep end of the pool on this. we'll see what the vice president -- >> but do you really -- we've been talking now for several days about whether this is a real break or is it a gosh, i

can't quit you in the end break. >> look, i think this is a -- floodgates are open. people are going you saw sears earlier saying i can't support trump. a very conservative african american future of the republican party in georgia. >> but lindsey graham said this the night of the insurrection. and then he was in the airport the next day by people screaming at him, and he seemed to then go to mar-a-lago. >> the trump announcement i predict is going to fall pretty flat. and it's not going to be what he wants it to be. what i'm watching is january. i'm watching the new year. when the dust settles, people break for the holidays. congress is back in session. that's when people tend to gravitate back towards mar-a-lago. they end up needing something from him. they're hearing from their base when they're back home. >> who is going to go there. this is my point about going to tallahassee versus mar-a-lago. what are you going to need from him at this point? >> ron desantis. >> my question, i think the point about not -- about not

wanting more politics now, the only people who are going to be excited by this are the people who travel from place to place like it's a grateful dead thing. and they just go to all of his rallies. but i think america is tired of all of this, and they're tired of him, frankly, right now. and, you know, it's interesting. he did better and the republican party did better during the months when he was quiet. the republican party started having problems when he resurfaced in a big way. and, you know, i mean, this -- you kind of feel like there is this big implosion coming. but the question is at the end of the day, i want to see how the base reacts to all of this. rank and file people who have followed trump. >> i'm still imagining the trump base and the grateful dead base traveling together. a lot of crossover. >> they're all tie dye.

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there is a major push under way right now to count ballots in arizona. looking live pictures from pima county in arizona. thousands of new votes were just reported, and we're expecting even more results coming up this hour. arizona and neighboring nevada could be the deciders as the nation waits to learn which party will win the keys to the u.s. senate. control of the house of representatives also is hanging in the balance right now as election night in america continues.

i'm wolf blitzer in the cnn election center. we're standing by to see if the needle moves tonight in the critical undecided senate races in both arizona and nevada. two democratic incumbents fighting so hard to try to hold on against strong challenges from republicans. those races crucial in determining the final balance of power in the senate. right now, democrats hold 46 senate seats, 48 i should say. 48 senate seats. republicans have 49. that's two short of the 51 seats they need to retake senate control. over in the house of representatives, democrats have won right now 192 house seats. so far republicans have 209. that's nine seats short of the 218 needed to reclaim the majority. 34 house seats still haven't been decided. to win house control, by the way, republicans must win seven

seats in competitive contests that are still playing out right now. we have a very good chance at doing that since they are currently leading in 11 races. democrats have a taller order. they must win 21 competitive seats to hold on to the house. they are currently leading in 16, 16 races. let's go to the battleground states right now. our correspondent kyung lah is in arizona. kyung, we expect new votes from arizona very soon. what are you hearing? >> and by very soon, it could be any minute from now, wolf, in this hour. and we anticipate should it be very, very soon. the second largest county here in arizona, pima county will be releasing more election results, about 10,000 ballots expected. and then in two hours, this county that i'm in, maricopa county will be releasing even more election results. we are told that it will be in the range of about 62,000 votes, if not greater. they anticipate it will be greater. but that number has been moving

as they work through all of these ballots. those ballots from friday night, saturday, and sunday -- excuse me, saturday night, sunday, and monday. these are ballots, early ballots before election day. and so those are going to be a part of the results that we get tonight. and every single night we're going to expect about the 60,000, 70,000 range to be released nightly here from maricopa county. it is a slow process. they have to signature verify. they are mandated by state law to follow some certain rules. but this has created an area for some heated political rhetoric, including from what we are hearing from arizona republican gubernatorial nominee kari lake. and here the election officials have pushed back on her assertion that they're doing it on purpose. take a listen. >> quite frankly, it is offensive for kari lake to say that these people behind me are slow rolling this when they're working 14 to 18 hours. so i really hope this is the end

of that now. we can be patient and respect the results when they come out. >> one other thing is that these officials are working under enormous pressure, wolf. they have sustained some incredible threats on their families, on their lives, on their livelihoods. so they say they are trying to move as quickly as professionally, and as accurately as they can, wolf. >> kyung lah on the scene for us. we'll get back to you as soon as the numbers come out. kyung lah reporting for us. let's go over to dave chalian. what do the candidates need the do to actually win right now in arizona? >> as you see, we have about 665,000 votes outstanding in arizona statewide. so one of the things, wolf, that we're doing, our team at the decision desk looks at what each candidate needs, what percentage of that remaining unkwuncountede they need to wind. 665 uncounted, an estimate.

blake masters, who is now running behind would need approximately between 52 and 56% of the remaining uncounted vote. obviously, mark kelly needs less. he is currently in the lead in this race. so mark kelly needs about 42 to 46% of that overall statewide remaining vote to be counted. so as we look at each vote batch that comes in, we'll lock to see if masters and kelly are sort of hitting these marks that they would need to hit in order to win this race. >> david, thank you very much. i'm here with john king at the magic wall. i understand we're getting some new numbers already coming in from arizona. >> we're waiting for these two big counties, wolf. you just talked to kyung. she in maricopa. this is the big, 60,000 tonight, more to come as we go forward. this is 61% of the state population. so this is the biggest. you just mentioned any moment kyung mentioned we could get pima county. that's the second largest county

in the state. we do have some new numbers. coconino county, these numbers came in a short time ago. let me pull this up. the new numbers are included here. i just want to show you in the idea that as each of these new voting reports come in, what is the raw number? and number two, what is the percentage. if you're republicans you need a higher percentage because you need to catch up. that's the test. i want to show owhat happened in this one county. let's look at the senate race for now. and we'll bring up this. and i'll write it here. in this one county when the votes came in, senator kelly 2047. they're included in the totals there. these aren't new numbers. i want to give you the map to show you whatter woo looking for as we bring the extra votes into the process. so that's 69%. that's 29%. so if you're blake masters and you're trailing, maricopa is much more important. pima is much more important, because that's where there are more votes. this is a democratic county. so let's be clear about that.

the democrat is winning in a democratic county. not breaking news. but the democrat is winning, getting 69%. so that's what you're look for. you get a batch of votes from this county, batch of votes from another county. that's what matters in the end. i'm going come out and turn this off so it moves. you'll see the raw numbers in the race. this is the statewide numbers. when you get new votes like this, mark kelly's lead is above 100,000. it was 87,000 earlier. it is now above 100,000. now we have tens and tens of thousands more votes to count. so we're not there yet. but that's what you want, right? we're at 76%. nearing 80% of the estimated vote. what you want in this situation, you get an installment of votes, it could be hours, a day before you get the next one. you're hoping you see more votes and the percentage in the new votes that is higher than your statewide total. that's gold. you're at 51 and winning, when the new votes come in, can you stay above 51? if that continues, he gets a second term as senator from

arizona. compare the new to the existing, and if you're blake masters, 46, that doesn't do it for you. this is just one small installment from one county. so no reason for panic in the masters campaign. but if this continues, then there would be, wolf. >> certainly would be. mark kelly still ahead. let's go to david chalian. i know you're looking so, so closely right now at the governor's race in arizona. >> yeah, which is a different picture, because of where the race is right now. obviously kari lake the republican and katie hobbs the democrat are locked in a much closer battle than we see between the two candidates in the senate race. our approximation of how much vote is outstanding in arizona is the same. 665,000 votes we estimate are still out there and uncounted. so hundreds of thousands of votes to still count in the state. but look at this. this is so interesting because it's a close race. kari lake is running a little behind right now, but in this estimate, in this range, kari lake needs between 49 and 51%,

roughly half of that outstanding vote in order to overtake katie hobbs and secure a victory here. katie hobbs' range is really similar. 49 to 51% is what she needs to achieve in what is left to be counted. she needs that kind of haul, roughly half of the votes in order to maintain her lead and secure a victory, wolf. >> very interesting indeed, john. let's talk a little bit about this governor's race. katie hobbs the democrat, kari lake the republican. katie hobbs is ahead. she is ahead right now 56.6% to 49.4%. 76% of the estimated vote is now in. >> and so we're going to go through the same exercise in two counties. now two different counties in arizona. those interest numbers. these numbers i'm about to show you and the smaller numbers are included in this total. i want to show you to the point david chalian was making about trajectory, the percentage you need to catch up or the percentage you need to keep your lead. katie hobbs is a 22,740.

she is in a tighter race. but look at the two reports, let me bring up the chalk board to help us out here. let me bring this up twice. i'm going bring it up and bring it up again. i can't. we'll just use the same one. here we go. we're going go up here. again, back into this county in the north. i'm going to move it up a little bit so you can see. this is the democratic county in the northern part of the state. i just show you'd the kelly county. excuse me for turning my back. in this county, hobbs gets 2,3015. this is 69 if you round it up. and this is 31%. so, again, david just said kari lake needs to get a majority. she trailing. she needs to get above 50% of the new votes. in this one, a democratic county. take that into account. but katie hobbs is getting let's come out to the statewide vote. she is getting 51% if you round. the new votes she is getting 69% of them. that's gold if you're the democratic campaign.

again, it's one county. there are tens of thousands more votes to come, but that is gold. that's up in the northern county. now let me blank this out, come down for santa cruz county. that's a small county. that's pima. below it is santa cruz. i want to do this one more time and bring these in. in this county here, some new votes just came in. 102, 405. it's a democratic county. if you're katie hobbs getting 22% to 28%, that's what you want. in terms of trying to build your lead, yes, kari lake is hoping more votes come in. you come back out statewide, kari lake is hoping they come from maricopa county in the phoenix suburbs, tucson in pima county. if you're katie hobbs, the blue county, you're getting 72%, you're happy. >> let's discuss what's going on over there. constance hargrove is joining us, the elections director in pima county, arizona. thank you so much for joining us. so how many outstanding ballots are there in pima county right

now? if you can just give us the numbers, and give us the latest in the senate race. give us the latest numbers. >> okay. the latest numbers in the senate race for mark kelly, 18926. for blake masters, 11146. and markovic or the has 5712. >> so those are all the numbers you have so far? >> that -- yes. those are all the numbers i have so far. >> how many outstanding ballots do you think there are remaining to be counted? >> so there are approximately 120,000 ballots between the recorder's office and the election. >> when do you expect those to actually be counted and reported out? >> so we have in our office roughly 60,000 ballots. so we should be able to get

through hopefully approximately 20,000 tomorrow. we can usually get through about 20,000 a day. and we will keep working through the weekend and get through most of those ballots, not all of those ballots. we have probably by no later than monday morning. >> constance hardgrove, i know john king has a question as well. john, go ahead. >> this has been largely in maricopa county. but when you hear social media people outside your state, but including the republican candidate in your state, questioning why this is taking so long, raiding doubts about whether the integrity of the count essentially. can you explain as the count is taking place, one of the things that's normal in most places, and i'm not there with you, so tell me if this is true. as the votes are being counted, don't both parties have the right to have observers watching all this? they're watching. they know nothing bad is happening. the noise is coming from female

outside the room. that correct? >> that is correct. we always have at least two observers in the room at any time. and we've had multiple observers, some that were not inside the room, but both parties here all week. >> you guys are doing an impressive job indeed. thank you very, very much. and john, you've got the new numbers. i just want to make sure you report and give us your analysis. >> so you get the new numbers. pima county is a democratic county. there should be no shock the democrat is getting more votes. as you get into the batches, i'm going to come out here, make sure this is off. the statewide totals now over here. so senator kelly is, this is katie hobbs. this is the governor's race. katie hobbs is getting 51% if you round that up. 49% for kari lake. for hobbs you need to stay above 50 you. win if you stay above 50. the new votes come in, she is getting 65%. you're not only meeting your bar, she is about 49 or 50% to keep that lead. so you want to get 50% any time in an election.

50% of every new batch that comes in or more. 65%, so you're happy. you're happy if you're in the dobbs campaign. again, it's a democratic county, but every vote counts. you want to stretch that lead out, because you are worried. kari lake was a anchor in the phoenix suburbs. she'll have more support in larger more populous maricopa county. now let's switch to the senate race. senator kelly has a bigger lead. it's up to 107,000 now because of this. it was about 100,000 last time we spoke. now it's up to about 107,000 because of this. and look what's happening with it. he is at 51, 52% to 46%. so mark kelly, if he gets 49%, he could still win this race. he wants to get 50 or more in every one of these. well can do a statistical analysis or just have common sense. to keep your lead you want to win more than half of all the votes coming in. and you're guaranteed to keep your lead. look, 66%. again, it's a democratic county. republicans are saying so what, it's a democratic county. we're going through the votes, some by the hundreds, some by the thousands. mark kelly is doing exactly what he needs.

blake masters performing at this level in pima county, he is going to need a gang busters perform in maricopa county where there are more votes, but number like that does not make you happy. you need to do better. even in democratic areas, if you want to win this state, the republican needs to do better than that. >> right now we're waiting for a huge batch of votes come in from maricopa county that could potentially be very, very decisive. we'll watch that. we'll share it with you as soon as those numbers come in. it could be decisive. just ahead also, house republicans are predicting a gop majority once all the votes are counted. but cnn has not yet made that projection. we're going dig into all the latest numbers and explain what we're still waiting for. our special election coverage continues in just a moment. to provide flexible pay options and greater workforce visibility today, so you can have more success tomorrow. ♪ one thing leads to another, yeah, yeah ♪ in this family, it's the scientists versus the artists. [ melancholy music playing ]

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open primary system. so we know a democrat will win. cnn can project that in california. democrats will win. a california state senator will defeat democrat jan perry, a former los angeles city council woman. also in california's 15th and 34th congressional districts, we can also say a democrat will win. we don't know yet which one. this means we can move three morehouse seats over to democrats, bringing the balance of power to 195 democrats right now and 209 republicans. so let's take a look at the state of play where things stand right now on this election night in america continued. right now democrats must win 21 competitive seats to maintain their majority in the house. republicans must win seven competitive seats to win their majority in the u.s. house of representatives. let's go over to john king right now, who is watching all of this. so, so closely. so we haven't projected the

winner in the house of representatives yet, the democrats or the republicans. tell our viewers -- explain what's going on. >> well, we're counting votes. so you have these races. these are the races we've called so far, as you just outlined. republicans have 209. that leaves them just nine seats a way from 218. the magic number that would be a new republican majority. democrats are at 195. and again, republicans did not expect the map to look like this three days after. now republicans, as you note, have an easier path. we just look at the races where they were ahead right now. they're ahead in 222. you need 218 for majority. the races are not called. they could go the other way. wear still countinballots. there is a lot to go. the mathematical remains democrats can get there. it's a steep hill. remember, this is the possibilities. republicans have an easier path. republicans have a more probable path. but democrats have a possible path. and let's go through some of the steps. you see right there they're at

195. 195. let me bring these three races in. here is three more. we view these races. our decision team has looked closely that democrats are likely to one. one here in new mexico, one in colorado. and there is one here in maryland. i want to note the republican is currently leading in this race in maryland. but there are outstanding votes in montgomery county just outside of washington, d.c. it's overwhelmingly democratic. that's where the outstanding votes are. the republicans' lead is narrow. so it is quite likely in our view based on voting patterns that the democrat will win there. there is one, there is two, there is three. where does that get you? that will get you in this scenario, and it's a scenario, to 198, right? leave that there. let's take the next step. let's look at some more races here. here is 14 more races where democrats are ahead. in some of these, democratic victory is guaranteed. california has a jungle primary. in several of the races it's a democrat versus a democrat. a democrat will win. we just don't know which democrat yet. in other races, the democrats are ahead. several of those, republicans have actually conceded. we have not called them yet because the vote margin is so

close. we're conservative here. we want to wait and count the votes. there is 14 more. what does that get you to? that would get you to 212. let's take this out. wipe this out. bring this up. that would get you to 212. 212. that's tantalizingly close to 219, isn't it, wolf? so let's take the next step. let's take the next step right here. 218 is where you need to go. two states with rank choice voting, the democratic candidates in alaska and maine are currently ahead and close to 50%. they could win outright. if they don't get above 50% when all the votes are counted, that's when they do the second and third choice. they drop out the bottom candidates and look at the second and third choice. it is not only quite possible, we believe probable the democratic candidate wins here and wins here. so that would get you to 214. again, this is a scenario watching at home. but this is why. >> they're four short right now. >> in this scenario they are four short right now. this is where we want to be completely transparent and honest with you. this next four, to 214, i can get you there. it doesn't mean it will happen.

but okay, i see how that would work and it would be hard for any republican to disagree it is possible. these four fully transparent is a reach. these are a reach. why? because republicans are leading in them right now. this includes the lauren boebert district here in western colorado. she is ahead by 1136 votes. they're not done counting here. it's possible the democrat can win this race. that's why we say it is possible. but it would be a reach. one more i just want to show you one more of these. let's bring this back out here and come out to central california. this name might be known to you when i come into this district here. this is david ball valadao's district. david valadao, you see him here, he is ahead by 3386. but there are a lot of votes to count out here. this district was carried by joe biden by 13 points. so that's why we put it on this list. it is possible, reasonable california does mail-in ballots. this district has swung back and forth. the vote count has swung back and forth in this drib as we watched. will the democrat win? we don't know that.

will the republican win? he just might. in this scenario, if democrats can defy the odds, yes, and get the mail-in ballot counts and get those other four, come back out to the full map, if they can get the other four, it is still mathematically possible to get there. again, republicans have a clearer path to the majority. but the reason we're still counting votes, and it's so important to count these votes on night three is there is still a mathematical possibility. 214 to back that up pretty good. getting the last ones, it is a reach. but it is a mathematical possibility and it's not out of the realm. >> you and have i been at this magic wall over many midterms. have you ever seen a midterm like this up with. >> no, i have not. let's come back to the real maps where we see where we are right now. look. the probability here is a narrow republican majority. we need to be honest about that. but we're not there yet. we are simply not there yet. republicans, there is one point

kevin mccarthy said we'll win 60 seats. and he said we'll win 30 seats. you're looking right now where they are ahead in 222 seats. in the current house of representatives, they have 212 seats. if this ends with a 10 or 12-seat republican gain, republicans will have the majority that is significant. joe biden's life, president biden's life will change dramatically if that happens. but that is nowhere near, absolutely nowhere near what they anticipated. that's what makes so it fascinating. >> let's go over here because there are new votes coming in from arizona right now. and i want you to share with our viewers what we're learning. >> let's see what we have in arizona. let me reset and come back up. let me see right here. i'm told to look up here. where am i going here? i'm going to the wrong place. let's see. okay. okay. we're going to get here. >> north of phoenix. >> yavapai county.

new votes here. we have new votes to bring? . or these just came in? it's a republican county. i'm sorry. >> let's take a look at the governor's race. >> you see blake masters winning 60% in this republican county. donald trump carried this county by 29 points. but if there are new votes there, that hasn't been communicated. >> bring in the chalk board. >> let's bring it up. okay. let's go. >> this is the governor's race right now. all right. for katie hobbs, 2479. >> 2479. >> 2479. 33.6% of the vote. >> okay. >> kari lake, 4892. 66% of the vote.

that clearly helps the republicans. >> to the point we were making earlier when the new votes come in, you want them to a, match or exceed your percentage already in that county if this is your county. this is a republican county. you want 60% here. and katie hobbs 34%. kari lake overperforming her current number. and then you come out to the statewide map. and you have obviously kari lake is trailing at 49.5. it's a very, very close race that lead has ropped to 20,336. >> a lot closer. >> from this. this it is right here. 2400 votes that has dropped right there. if you're kari lake, that's what you need to do. we were just talk about how the democrats were getting huge percentages, 60 plus, close to 70% in the democratic county. kari lake is doing the same thing right now in a republican county. >> 70% of the vote is in. there is still plenty of votes outstanding. >> and midwest of those votes are here in maricopa county. and as you watch maricopa, this is, again, more than 60% of the vote. but again, it's a blue county. but look how close it is in the blue county. number one, it's a competitive county. it's blue, but it's a very competitive county.

and number two, most people nationally think of kari lake as the donald trump acolyte and things like that. but instead, what you have here is she was a phoenix tv anchor for ten years. she is very well-known in the community. we'll see what happens here. >> let's take a look at the senate race right now. the new numbers coming in. mark kelly, the democratic, blake masters the republican right now in this county. >> let's go back up here. see the new numbers that came in here. let me pull this up. let me move it up as i see the county. the numbers in here. the question, are each candidate getting or exceeding what they need in this county. this is senator kelly here. 2545. excuse me. let me blank it out. 4679. so blake masters -- >> clearly, these numbers that are coming in from this county

helps the republican blake masters. >> right. so, again, it's a republican county. if the republican -- if kelly was on top, not only is he getting 63%, that's in excess of where he was in this county. and then you pull out to the statewide vote. and again, david chalian smartly laid it out earlier. if you have 46, blake masters needs to catch up. in this county, that's gold. that's gold. that means as these new votes came in this republican county, the masters campaign can say not only are we meeting, but we're exceeding what we need percentage-wise as we get it. that's what you need to do. in the blue counties, the democrats need to overperform. in the red counties the republicans need to overperform. blake maertss, way more votes to come in phoenix. more votes is the phoenix here. pima county is tucson and the suburbs. when you're the republicans we just saw kari lake and now blake masters in these smaller red counties, that's what you need to do. >> and we're about to get, i'm told, a huge number of votes

coming in from the largest county in arizona and maricopa county. and that will make a difference presumably on what's going on right now, as soon as the votes come in, we'll share them with our viewers. so john, don't go too far away. coming up, a closer look at republican candidates who denied president biden's 2020 victory have fared in some of the key races across the country. stay with us. we'll be right back. [ sneezing ] are you okay? oh, it's just a cold. if you have high blood pressure, a cold is not just a cold. coricidin is the #1 doctor recommended cold and flu brand.

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let's take a closer look now at how election deniers did in some key races for secretary of state in michigan in the incumbent democrat benson won against election denier kristina karamo who claims she witnessed fraud in 2020. she got president trump's endorsement before the statewide convention that won her the nomination. similar story in minnesota where incumbent democrat steve simon beat out a republican kim crockett who also earned trump's

dormant calling the 2020 election fake. in new mexico, incumbent secretary of state defeated republican audrey trujillo who publicly questioned president biden's 2020 win. we're also following two major secretary of state races that we have not yet called in arizona. we're awaiting new vote numbers. the race between the republican mark finchem and democrat adid font. he is a self-proclaimed member of the oath keepers. in nevada we're following the still undecided between republican jim marchant and aguilar. marchant denies that president biden legitimately won the 2020 election and claims that stop congressional democrats have been installed by what he calls the deep state cabal. there you go. finchem and marchant in their own words. >> ladies and gentlemen, we know it, and they know it.

donald trump won. >> president trump and i lost an election in 2020 buzzecause of rigged election. i've been working since november 4th, 2020 to expose what happened. and what i found out is horrifying. and when i'm secretary of state of nevada, we're going fix it. >> let's get more on all of this with our team. i mean, this was a strong rebuke of election denials in a lot of states that we saw. >> i think so. i really do think this is a big part of the dynamic. i think this is part of the fabric that people were rebelling against. there were big efforts that went into these secretary of state races. an organization called i vote that has spent millions and millions of dollars in these secretary of state races against these election deniers. but this guy finchem in arizona was the guy in the state house who faced down rusty bauers, the

speaker of the house who stood up to trump and giuliani and all those folks on the whole issue of election denial. and he was leading the charge on the other side of it. so we has a deep, rich history. and think how dangerous that is. >> yeah. >> well, kari lake we sort of have to see how that turns out. she is kind of the leader of election deniers, one of the most famous ones. and she has said that if she doesn't win, you know, the election was rigged, et cetera, et cetera. she is kind of symbolic of that. and if she wins, i think it would give a little momentum. i mean, secretary of states according to cnn, 12 republican nominees were eelection deniers and four won. >> you know, being an election denier to the extent that finchem was and a few others, mastriano, some of the real extremists, it's not a platform that has appeal beyond a small number of people.

and so could you ride it to victory in a primary? maybe. but when you get into a general election, and you look at our exit polls, and you see what the concerns the american people were, you're a republican, maybe it was inflation and immigration and crime. you're a democrat, maybe it was abortion. these are serious issues that everybody is dealing with every day. and then you're out here running on some niche thing that a small group cares about. and at that, most of the time when you're talking about it, you sound crazy. we were just talking at the break, this election rewarded a lot of incumbents, a lot of people with experience. and you said, david, it was like a stability election. if you're out here ranting about this stuff, it's the opposite of stable. >> governor sununu of new hampshire who won handily and then down ballot republicans who were election deniers in new hampshire who lost said it very well to jake tapper last night. they said we can deal with policy, but we need to fix crazy right now. i think this was a pro governance election.

it's not really a pro boiden. it's definitely anti-trump. we want to chase the crazy to the sidelines where they should be. >> i think one of the most important developments is the most normal one. concessions. people who lost conceded that they had lost. i think more than anything else, that is squeezing some of the crazy out. because you have people who are republicans. and how trumpy they were not trumpy they were, you have a lot of people standing up and saying i lost and it's okay. >> i was going to say in pennsylvania, mehmet oz on monday night -- excuse me, on wednesday morning did what normally happens in elections, right? you call your opponent, you shake his hand. you say tough race. congratulations. and so that used to be normal. so i think that should be celebrated in this current environment. >> here is an overhang on this whole election. i'm of the firm belief that we're still trying to recover from what that pandemic did to us. i think there is a sense that things have been sort of out of

control. and i think that's true in our politics. and i think that's true in our lives. so it makes sense that people, they don't want crazy. they want stable. and. >> those independent voters by the way, if you look again, go back to the independent voters which broke for republicans. i think broke for -- excuse me, broke for democrats instead of republicans, i think they broke for stability. they broke in favor against the election deniers. they broke in favor of stability. >> i think that has a lot to do with the high turnout. we were just talking about this. we're all applauding high turnout. it's great, it's great. but i think what's going on is people are afraid of the other side. and so they're turning out out of fear because there is a fear on one side that the election deniers are going to ruin democracy and get rid of it. and there is a fear on the other side that the democrats are going to, you know, bring socialism here and that's going to be the way the country runs, and the economy will never get better. >> i'm sorry, elisa. one of the things is we are so

polarized that these independent voters actually become very important because the democrat gets 96% of the democratic vote. the republican gets 95%. >> if will is one person who i hope is hearing this it's kevin mccarthy, who may be overseeing one of the slimmest majorities in recent republican house history. it's not a mandate for wild conspiracies, for bringing everything to a screechling halt to investigate people and to subpoena everyone from the biden administration. due legitimate oversight, that is absolutely the role of congress. but this is mandate for working across the aisle, getting things done and taking the temperature down. >> you won't get there without making concessions to do those things. >> explain why that is. >> right now. >> it's math. >> it's math. right now he going around meeting with different folks if you want my vote, here is what i would like. i wantimpeach. he doesn't have many votes to not get.

>> this is the irony here as democrats, we're glad we didn't lose a bunch more seats from a political point of view, that's great. from a governing point of view, if you're going to have republicans in charge, it would be better for a bunch of them to be in charge because then the lunatic fringe is smaller comparatively. >> one of the rules we're trying put in and trying to get mccarthy to agree to is this idea that you can vacate the chair every time you get mad about something. if you watch what's going on in great britain right now, musical chairs, that's what they want to do to the u.s. house. it's crazy. coming up, more critical votes from arizona. the state is preparing to lease rest lease new numbers. surprising numbers from the exit polls why democrats beat expectations in some key races. our special coverage continues in a moment. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place. subscriptions are down, but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation.

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welcome back. america's choice to control congress for the next two years is up in the air tonight. but we are getting some new information about why democrats did better than expected in some critical races. let's go straight to cnn's david chalian for a closer look. david?

>> hey, dana. so what we have done here is sort of go battleground state by battleground state to look at how candidates did, specifically democratic candidates among voters who told us they somewhat disapprove of joe biden's job performance. so just think about this. these are people who say i somewhat disapprove of joe biden's job performance. 51% of them vote for fetterman. 42% for oz. look at new hampshire. you'll see even a greater disparity. 72% of these somewhat disaprovers of joe biden actually voted for maggie hassan, the democrat. only 25% of them for don bolduc. in nevada, which obviously is a much close erase, and one that we haven't called yet, and you see it here too. so among that crowd of somewhat disapprove of joe biden, 47% still go with the democrat catherine cortez masto. 44% of them go with adam laxalt.

and in georgia, which we know is going to that runoff on december 6th, 50% of those somewhat disaprovers of joe biden went for raphael warnock. 44% for walker. 5% for oliver, dana. >> david, thank you so much. so going back to what mitch mcconnell said in the summer, candidates matter, dissing his own candidates. this is bearing out in the exit polls. that if the candidates were better from the perspective of republicans, and obviously the perspective of voters, things could have been different this these key states. >> i think that is definitely the case. but i also think there is even more going on here than just the candidates themselves. i think this environment has been unusual pretty much the entirety of this year. gas prices at record highs. the economy in a state of inflation and headed toward a recession. and yet democrats generically have been performing better than the president. and it's because of this factor

that david just explained. and i think some of that has to do with the idea that a lot of people, there is actually a huge swath of the electorate that is kind of so-so about joe biden. and they're making their decisions kind of independent of that. that was not always the case with someone like trump who was extremely polarizing, but biden just has a lot of people feeling like eh. and those people are making decisions separate and apart from how they feel about him. >> i think it's clear there are so many people out there who don't really love the job biden is doing. you see you see it in the approval rating. i think this does have to do with trump. i think this is something mcconnell understands distinctively, that trump has lost republicans' winnable elections. it wasn't that long ago that trump was president. he's still in and out of news all the time. he was hosting rallies in the swing states up until the end,

reminding people, hey, this is the kind of chaos you voted out a couple years ago. >> i can't believe you didn't use the term normy. i'm really disappointed. >> i'll just say normal. >> i was talking to a senior republican official tonight who was talking, once again, about, can we wrestle the party back from donald trump? can we be normal again? and he said to me, no one wants to run into a brick wall on purpose. and i think with some of these voters, that's exactly what you're seeing. they want normal. they want competent. there are a lot of centrists out there. and they're willing to put aside that they may not be crazy. >> just to what jamie's talking about that, you know, some strategists have suggested to me the last couple of days, we haven't talked about the attack on paul pelosi and how that was a jolt, a real jolt, in this

midterm cycle. and what happened in the aftermath of that, seeing so many republicans, including some people who tried to present themselves as normal, like a glenn youngkin, going out there and being callous and kind of leaning into -- >> offensive. >> -- the nastiness of it. people on both sides of the aisle have raised that to me as one of the few things in the last few weeks of this midterm cycle was a real moment in this cycle that broke through to people. and the reaction of the republican party largely, which was muted in their condemnation and in some cases joking about it, and then trump joking about it, did not help at all. >> that's such a good point. we should say that glen kun youngkin apologized later and wrote a hand-written letter to the speaker saying he was out of line. it does remind us that when we look back at the big sweep elections in the first midterms

of the first term of a president, george w. bush, barack obama, even bill clinton, they were voting for -- i'm just going to keep using your terms -- normies. in 2010, there was the tea party. the tea party, they were for something very specific, which is lowering government spending. now it's, do you want to have somebody who is for truth and -- you know, maybe they don't have the same philosophy as you, but they are sort of living on planet reality as opposed to some of their alternatives. >> i think people are saying and certainly when i talk to some voters who -- i do this thing when i go out on the campaign trail called the walmart parking lot test, right? pick your big box mart store and just talk to people. see what they say. you tend to get people who are more engaged in politics if you're in new hampshire than if you are in arkansas. it depends on the place exactly. one of the things that really changed and has changed over the

past 15 or so years i've been doing this is how angry and disillusioned everybody seems to be on all sides of the aisle. what i take from that is people don't really want to have to worry about whether the government is functioning on a basic level. they don't want to have to be stressed out about it all the time. >> i found that too. but usually that anger and that disillusionment is taken out on -- pick your democrat -- because that's the weapon that they have. and it didn't happen. as much. it happened some. >> a little bit. >> the reality is that republicans were running against the economy but not really running on anything as it relates to the economy. i mean, given all the different factors that could have played into this, you have to imagine when voters are deciding, okay, do we really think that they're going to do something about it? they didn't actually present a plan. and to this day, i don't think we know really what the plan would have been or would be to

address inflation and cost. and i don't think that helped either. >> i just think people really still blame trump and the republican party by extension because the republican party -- who is it? was it governor hogan who said he felt like he was on a lifeboat by himself until these election results? like, people -- the 2020 election, as much as we are absolutely a 50/50 country and it was close by almost any metric, it actually wasn't. voters handed democrats control of the white house, control of the house, and narrow control of the senate. and i don't think that they've forgotten the things that they knew back then. >> maybe not. well, coming up, new details on the closely-watched races in arizona and nevada. we're standing by for new vote counts. this is election night in america, continued. ♪ what if we- ♪ what is that?

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-- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com right now we're getting a behind the scenes look at the vote counting in arizona, as we await a big new round of results from the state's largest county. arizona one of two western battlegrounds with considerable power to shape the ongoing fight for control of the united states senate. we're following all the undecided races and the stakes for both parties, as election night in america continues. i'm wolf blitzer back in the cnn election center. we're standing by to see if there are any new shifts in those key races, as more votes come in from the pivotal battlegrounds of arizona and nevada, those states home to two undecided senate races that are crucial to determining the final balance of power in the u.s. senate. right now democrats hold 48

seats in the u.s. senate. republicans have 49. that's two seats short of the 51 they need to win majority control of the senate. the fight for control of the house of representatives also remains undecided right now. remember, 218 seats are needed to win the majority in the house. democrats just won some more seats. they now have 195. republicans are holding 209. 31 house seats remain undecided and they're still in play right now. to win house control, republicans must win seven seats in those competitive contests that are still playing out right now. republicans very optimistic about their prospects, since they are currently leading in 11 races. democrats have more of an uphill fight. they must win -- right now they must win 21 competitive seats to hold onto the house. they are currently leading in 16 races.

right now our correspondents are standing by in arizona and nevada. first let's go to kyung lah in arizona for us. kyung, we're closing in on getting new results from arizona right now. i know they're working on right behind you. what's the latest? >> reporter: yeah, they've been working 14, 18-hour shifts a day to try to get through what the board of supervisors is calling just a historic number of early ballots that were returned on election day. these early ballots also received just before election day. so, it's a tremendous amount, and they're working through them as quickly but as accurately as possible. what we are waiting for in just one hour, we are going to get another picture into house this race stands, the u.s. senate race as well as a critical governor race in arizona. approximately 60,000-plus votes will be released. these are votes from saturday night, sunday night, and monday. we should get a bit more of a

picture of how those early ballots before election day are going to fall. but, wolf, it is very important to note that these are not the same day election day votes. that is also going to give us a different picture. but what we are looking for in the next hour or so is to get a better idea of where these races stand. wolf? >> huge number expected very, very soon. kyung lah in phoenix, arizona. we'll get back to you quickly. gary tuchman is in north las vegas, nevada, for us right now. we expect new the numbers to come in from nevada as well. >> reporter: we're one state north of arizona, and we're expecting a similar thing to happen here. updated results any time. we've been promised once a night, there will be updated results. we haven't been told what time, but we anticipate it will be soon because it was this time last night we got the results. there are still tens of thousands of ovotes to be counted in nevada, 17 counties, including this one, clark

county, the most populous county in the state. this building behind me is where we were inside a short time ago. the tabulating is still going on. we're not allowed to show live pictures inside there because of security reasons. we are allowed to take pictures. we're not allowed to show the faces of the workers inside for those security reasons. we know, we've been told today there are at least 63,000 ballots to be counted in this county alone. that includes 50,000 ballots that were either mailed in or put in drop boxes on election day on tuesday. and then another 5,500 provisional ballots and 7,100 ballots that need to be cured. those are ballots that sometimes don't have signatures. people are called, give us your signature, and then the ballot will be counted. either way, there's a lot of lt bahs to count. two close, high profile races, senate race, and gubernatorial race. tomorrow is veterans day, but the tabulators will be here like it's any normal work day because ballots are allowed to be mailed in by saturday as long as they're postmarked by tuesday.

so, they will be counted through saturday no matter what. >> and those results could determine the winner. gary tuchman in north las vegas for us. let's go to david chalian now. you're taking a closer look at the senate race in nevada and what each campaign needs to do. >> yeah, with the outstanding vote state-wide, our estimate is approximately 120,000 votes are still outstanding state-wide. gary tuchman just said 63,000 in clark county alone, las vegas area there. so, half of this is in clark county, which will be key to watch. but what the decision desk did hear at cnn was calculate what each candidate would need to win, what percentage of that outstanding vote in order to win this race. so, catherine cortez masto, the democratic incumbent, who is currently behind in this race, she would need 53% to 56% of the remaining 120,000 votes, roughly, in nevada in order to

win this race. adam laxalt, who, you know wolf, is ahead in this race, needs a smaller percentage. he needs between 41% and 44% of the remaining votes. obviously since such a huge chunk of the outstanding vote is from clark county, this percentage, 53% to 56%, is not entirely out of the realm of possibility for catherine cortez masto. so, that's yef got to count more votes before we can see which way this race will fall. >> thank you very much. let's go back to john king. he's with me at the magic wall right now. you're tracking these votes that are coming in in arizona and nevada right now. these are crucial. >> to david's point, it's possible for senator cortez masto because the bulk of the outstanding votes are here, las vegas and the suburbs around it, clark county. this is more than 73% of the state-wide population. how much of the voting percentage will it be. it will be 70 poskt voting

population depending on turnout. this is the bulk of the election here. if you come out to the state-wide numbers, she is behind just by 16,000 votes. her math is more difficult. but it is still well within reach. let's go to arizona for a second. i want to show you. we've gone through this now. senator kelly's lead is 104,570 votes. it was 85,000 when i came to the office today. it's grown a little bit as smaller results came in. we're waiting for maricopa county. just like nevada, this will most influence the final outcome because maricopa county is 61% of the state-wide population. so, it's going to be 6 and 10 or more of the votes cast in the state of arizona are going to come from here. we'll know the final number soon. but every vote counts. we want to come down here to santa cruz county. i want to bring up the blackboard because i want to show you something here as we go. you see this county is a republican county. you see it play out there. i want to give you votes. i want to show you where

sometimes good news can be not so good news. in the new report in the governor's race here that came in a little bit ago, katie hobbs got 1,426. kari lake got more. it's a modest number of votes, but 1,513. so, that's 49%, if you round up. that's 48.5%. i'll give it 52%. it's 51.5%. let's go the same round up. give it 52%. excuse me for turning by back at home. i just want to get these numbers right. 1,400 and 88 for senator kelly. that's # 50%. and 1,387 -- you see, very competitive. this is one vote report. so, this is not a state-wide number. it's one vote report, and that's 47%. so, now i want to show you why i said sometimes good news or encouraging news. carry lake got more votes. that's good news, right? sure, it's good news. i want to bring this down on top of this one. this is a republican county that donald trump carried by 20 points. so n a republican county donald

trump carried by 20 points, you do not want to be roughly splitting the vote. 52 -- it's 51/49 -- i rounded up the numbers here because of the smaller percentages. you see here in the raw numbers, that's more votes. you always want more votes. but this is a county donald trump carried by 20 points. so, in this county, you want to be -- you need a much more lopsided number. same here. in this county that donald trump carried by 20 points -- this is just one vote report. this is not the county. as you see, county-wide, the republican candidate is leading. as later votes come in and you have a smaller pool of votes to count, david masters needs bigger math state-wide. he's trailing state-wide. in areas that are red on the map, you need to run it up. the democrats are likely to win the blue counties. the red counties are smaller, so they need bigger margins to offset the bigger blue counties. in this particular one vote report, he's leading in this

county, but that's not good enough. that makes his math every time he comes in under 50, whether it's a big vote report or small vote report, it makes his math harder. you see the numbers there, 104,570. we have a ways to go. but notice the blue. it doesn't mean the votes that will come in will favor the democrat. but this is a county joe biden carried by 20 points. maricopa county, much more votes here and a much more competitive county. this is a county that joe biden carried by just a little over two points. this is the more competitive county. it is blue. senator kelly is winning. katie hobbs is winning by a slightly slower margin. we don't know if that's how the votes will still come in. to the point david made about the percentages, i showed you a modest number of votes and the percentages were not simply large enough for the republicans. they need to do better the next time. >> and there's still a huge number of votes we anticipate

coming in from maricopa county. >> you look at the percentages. we lay out what do they need to catch up. you can look at it either way we want. from our perspective, in this case, kari lake is trailing but not by much. she's very well in the hunt. every time you get one where she doesn't meet that percentage, that means the percentage gets larger. that's why you look at them even if it's 1,300, 1,500 votes, but you're right. we're waiting for a lot more votes right here, tens of thousands of votes still to be reported in maricopa. >> we're standing by for new vote totals coming in from both arizona and nevada. they're coming in very, very soon. we'll update you as soon as we get them. this is critical. we'll be right back. -good. capella university sees education differently. our flexpath learning format lets you set deadlines and earn your nursing degree on your schedule.

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>> let me go to the senate race, that's what we're watching most closely. this is what we've been waiting for. it's the largest county and the largest place of outstanding votes. let me pull up the chalkboard and make this easy to do. you have senator cortez masto, democratic incumbent. you see her on the top. blake masters is the republican challenger. there are tens of thousands of votes out, so this is not going to get you to the finishline. 7,480 votes in clark county. 4,000 for adam laxalt. that's 61 the court and that's 31%. you're look at these votes. in clark county, he was 46% if you rounded up. in this one new installment -- there are others to come. this is what you're looking for in a campaign. she's at 52. whether it's 10 votes coming in

or 11,000 votes coming in and change, you want to be in the lead. she's getting 61%. that is encouraging for the cortez masto campaign. and this makes his math harder. simply straight up you see that right here. this is one drop, but it's 11,500 votes and 11,600 votes and change if you add that up. she was at 51%. let me come out to the state-wide number. this is more important. he was leading state-wide. she is gaining. she is trailing state-wide. she gets these votes. she needs that consistently throughout the night. she needs in the 50s. >> this gap is really narrowing. >> yes, that gap narrowed. >> because let's go through. it's narrowing. you make a point. let's go through other counties. as we go through it here, i'm going to erase this and close it out. you also got votes, let me move the map up here so you can see. this might take two steps because it's hard. you go over to carson city. this is a smaller county, 83% of the vote in.

we just got votes from -- let me make sure i have the right ones here. this is carson city, nevada. we just got these votes in. this is a much smaller report. the democratic incumbent getting 928 votes to 625 votes. again, she is trailing. whenever she comes in, she wants to -- in the new installment, she wants to be -- again, i'm sorry for turning my back. there's a couple ways to look at this. number one, let's look at the county. carson city here, republican, 11 point republican. donald trump carried by 11 points. in any installment whether it's 20 votes or 10,000 votes, a democrat getting more votes in this county is good news for a democrat because it's a republican county. you see adam laxalt -- related to senator laxalt from the last. 53% in this county. cortez masto, this is good for her. she's making up ground in this county.

then you pull it out to the state-wide level, and that's why she's making up ground there. as you go through these reports and you go through, in a place that traditionally votes republican -- he's still leading in that county. in this installment, she is making up ground and meeting the number. is she getting the percentage of vote she needs in the end to narrow the gap? that is in excess of what she needs. this is good news as we move up for the incumbent senator trailing in the race right now. can she make up the ground? that's why we're going to count all the votes, but that is encouraging news for her. i think we have one more here. we do. we do. let me bring up on the map one more time for nevada senate to go through it. this is a much smaller vote tote. we were just showing you where you had cortez masto gaining. but this is elko county, much smaller vote. 308, 29%.

65%, if you round that up. so, again, this is a much smaller county and smaller installment of votes. this is the seesaw and back and forth. in the laxalt campaign, that meets his test. the issue is this is much smaller. you want to meet your test in every one of these reports. he makes it here. this is the challenge as these come in. sometimes you get a couple hundred votes. this is 1,000 votes just shy of that. in the campaigns they're doing the same math we're doing. what percentage do we need? i just want to come over here because we have a couple new votes in arizona and make sure i get this right. we're going to come to pinot county right below phoenix here. this is the senate race. this is a republican county that donald trump carry bid 17 points. let's bring up the senate blackboard here so we can get it right. watch this. so, 39, 25, 4404 -- the nuns are

not going to be happy with that handwriting. 52. they're especially not going to be happy with that. 52.46. in this county, a narrow vote for a republican in a county that donald trump carried by 17 points. that's six points, right? he's leading in this county. 54%. he's running in 54% of this county. he's matching what he's getting in the county. it's good. it's good. it's good you're making up ground. he has more votes than him. politicians, simple math, it's arithmetic. the challenger has more votes than the leader. that means he's catching up. is that enough to catch up to this when you come out to the state-wide gap? that was a little bit higher, so he's made up some ground. as you make up ground, are you making up enough? is that percentage meeting the test you need? and you need to get it in the biggest counties, and that's

maricopa and pima. when the small ones come in, you need those too. every vote does count and every percentage counts. >> if the democrat were to win the senate seat in arizona and the democrat were to win in nevada, they would be the majority in the u.s. senate. >> let's come out to the full senate math to make the point you're making here, as we come back out and we just -- >> this is why we're here talking about these votes. it's so critical right now. >> right. these are the three uncalled races, right? these if you count georgia and count the lead -- if you want to do it on this map, this is why three niets after election night the stakes are so high here. let's just look at the races that we have called. this is where we are. republicans have 49 seats. democrats have 48 seats. those numbers, they will not go down. that's what they have now. the question is, can they go up? democrats need only 50 because they have the vice president of

the united states. we're not going to know this until december 6 skpgt the count after. so, you make the point. senator kelly is leading here right now. over 100,000 votes if you're in his campaign. you're somewhat optimistic, but you have to keep counting. that would get kdemocrats to 49. the republicans leading here right now. that would get republicans to 50. republicans need 51. in this scenario, republicans would still need georgia. if democrats win georgia, it's a tie again like it is right now, and the vice president breaks the tie. if she keeps closing the gap and take the lead, then the democrats can get to 50 with arizona and nevada, and then georgia is a trophy. it's critically important to the people of georgia. you would rather have 51 than 50, but that would be the challenge. so, how much -- georgia matters. of course it does. it's a big state. it's a big senate race. how much it matters depends on the outcome. >> it's 50/50. the vice president of the united states is the president of the

senate. she breaks the tie. the democrats continue to be the majority. >> right. if it's 51, she gets to leave town a little bit more often. she doesn't have to be there to break the tie. >> we're awaiting new votes coming in from arizona right now, where hundreds of thousands of votes are still uncounted. plus some new projections to make in minutes. we'll be right back. people remember ads with young people having a good time. so to help you remember that liberty mutual customizes your home insurance, here's a pool party. ♪ good times. insurance! ♪ only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪

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we have two projections to make in the u.s. house of representatives. right now california's 40th district, republican congresswoman young kim has won a second term in office. she was first elected in 2020 and was one of the first korean american women elected to the u.s. congress. our other new projection right now, montana republican ryan zing ki is coming back to congress. he served two years in the house before joining the trump cabinet

as the interior secretary. he will now be heading back to the house of representatives. so, let's take a closer look at the state of play for control of the house right now. with these two new cnn projections, republicans have won 211 seats. they're just seven away from taking over control, the majority, in the house of representatives. let's go back to dana bash for more. dana? >> thank you so much, wolf. i want to bring in david chalian to talk about what we're seeing in nevada in that senate race. it looks as though the incumbent democrat has the ability to pull ahead there. but let's -- david, let's get the kind of context that only you, david chalian, can bring us. >> thanks, dana. but, john was just -- as john was taking in the nevada vote that you just saw and he was showing the clark county breakdown of the vote that came in, you saw that among that batch of votes from clark county, catherine cortez masto won 61% in that batch. look here.

that is well above her need number. after those votes were counted, 105,000 votes remain uncounted in nevada, dana, okay? and catherine cortez masto's need of the remaining vote is in a range here because these are estimates. this is just a range, between 53% and 56%. in that big batch, she just got 61%, well over the need range of where she is. so, she keeps performing like that as votes come in, that would signal to you, hey, she can make up some ground here. adam laxalt, his number is lower. he only needs 41% to 43% of what's out there. if he gets that, he'll hang on. >> thank you, david. as david was talking, i got a text from somebody in cortez masto's camp saying that they are cautiously optimistic given the trends that we just reported that we're seeing with clark county, which of course is the most populous county in nevada. it's where las vegas is. >> yeah. and i think democrats going into

this week were hopeful but really nervous about this race. she was very, very vulnerable. but a couple of things that we've been seeing in the numbers -- first of all, what david just described, which is where the votes are coming from are where democrats expect they'll do pretty well. we looked -- we talked about this yesterday. we looked a little bit into the exit polls. one of the big concerns for democrats with senator cortez masto was whether she would hold her own with latino voters, a huge chunk of the democratic electorate in that state. and she largely did. she performed about as well as biden in 2020 and about as well as the democrat four years ago in the other senate race. so, i do think that she is performing, even though, you know, i think many democrats are still kind of white knuckled about this race. they are very hopeful at least as we sit here tonight.

>> and they should white knuckled about this race because it's very race in this particular contest. but also if you kind of look back at history, nevada is always like this. even harry reid had some nail biter races where he won by a few hundred votes. >> to abby's point, the emails i was getting at the beginning of the point when the initial data came in on nevada was that it was going to be republican from top to bottom that cortez masto was gone. then, as we started to learn there was this difference in the environment than we had initially seen or thought r about or been reporting for weeks, that was going to shift and those people had been telling me she had lost at 7:00 or 9:00 p.m. at night were now saying once these batch of votes come in, they are potentially likely to win the race. they're much more confident now than they were. one of the things i think is driving this too is that this was a pretty generic -- it was

almost as generic of a ballot test you can get with a senate race. cortez masto not necessarily well known outside the beltway for anything in particular. it was not like there were two characters like the fetterman/oz race or herschel walker/raphael warnock race. from that perspective, the fact that a lot of polling was wrong, a lot of the data used to make decisions was incorrect, could carry her. >> there was a big name there. laxalt -- you're all too young to remember. but when i covered -- >> thank you for saying that jamie, but no. >> i did get an interesting call from another senate race about this race, and that was from a strategist on the herschel walker campaign. they have been watching this very, very closely. 48 hours ago, they thought laxalt had it. today, i spoke to them this morning, they thought she had it. >> that's such an important

point because the reason we are so obsessively focused on these two races is because it actually has an enormous amount of bearing of what the next month in the state of georgia. if democrats hold on to both of these seats out west -- >> nevada and arizona. >> nevada and arizona -- it means that they've got a majority. >> they control the senate. >> and they control the senate. if they lose one, it means that georgia will decide who controls the senate. >> just thinking about being in nevada. as we talked to a guy who's a crossing guard said, i'm not going to vote. i said, why not? he said, just because i don't trust any of these people. i remember looking and thinking, we need to get all these votes out because we know how close it's going to be. all eyes remain on arizona where the battle for the senate and governor's mansion is too close to call. the state's most populous county is set to release thousands of votes in just a few minutes. don't go anywhere.

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new numbers are in and more are coming very, very soon from arizona, which has turned out to be a pivotal player in the midterm election and could very well decide the balance of power

in congress. brianna keilar is over at the voting desk for us tracking what's going on in arizona right now. what are you seeing? >> let's talk about what remains here in arizona. about 618,000 votes still need to be counted in the entire state. let's look at some of these counties. in mariko fa county, the most populous county in arizona, where phoenix is, of those 400,000, 290,000 are ballots dropped off on election day. this was a record number. 70% higher than any previous election. and they have not started counting them yet. counting these ballots takes longer than in-person election day votes because visuals must verify the signatures before tabulating them. this batch of 290,000 votes could be critical in determining the gubernatorial and senate races in the state. originally officials said they expected to have 95% to 99% of

those votes counted by friday. but they expect to take even longer. the remaining 110,000 we are waiting on include 90,000 early votes that were submitted before election day and those 17,000 votes that were cast on election day that were put in what is called box three because they couldn't be run through the tabulators because of a printer problem. we are expecting to get some updated numbers from maricopa county officials around 10:00 p.m. eastern tonight. this batch will include those early vote ballots received saturday, sunday, and monday before election day. and there's also a significant batch of votes left to count in pima county. this is of course arizona's second most populous county. this is where tucson is. we got an update from officials there tonight. they say there are still roughly 120,000 ballots left to be counted. and they say it will take a few days to have final results here. the elections director telling us about 20,000 votes will be

uploaded each day. official es will continue counting through the weekend and will get through most but not all of the outstanding votes by monday. >> john king is with me at the magic wall. show us right now why arizona is so critically important. >> number one, critically important to the balance of power in the senate. if you come back out to the full map and see that's 50/50. this is the current balance of power in terms of leading in the races. in the races we've called it's 49/48. democrats only 50 because they have vice president harris to break the tie. you have it right now. the republicans have 49 seats. so, the republicans need two of these three, nevada, arizona, and georgia. georgia run off is december 6th. these will be settled in the next cupouple of days. so, they're critical, absolutely critically important because if the democrats -- if the democrats can win them both, that gets the democrats to 50. and this would be to get to 51. if the democrats can win both of

these western states tharks keep their majority and this is an added number. if republicans get one of these, they still need this. if they get both of these, that would get republicans to 51. democrats only need 50 because of the vice president. republicans need 51. you have to remember that in the context. one of the things we're looking at, brianna smartly went through the counties that are left. do we have to wait until we get to the last vote to call the elections, we don't know the answer to that. if somebody is ahead by 100,000 votes and there are only 90,000 votes to be counted, that's simple math. one of the things we look for. i want to make clear, this is preliminary. joe biden won this state. let's go back and show you the margin in 2020. presidential election. 10,457 votes. this is a very competitive state. this state hadn't gone for a democrat for president since 1996. joe biden won it narrowly. come forward to the senate race now and senator kelly leading by

104,000 votes. that makes you happy if you're a democratic candidate. we've got about a quarter of the vote to count. that's an estimate. one of the questions, you ask. this is preliminary. joe biden won it two years ago. is senator kelly at least oning equal with joe biden? is he running the in a way that would get him a 10,000 or 15,000 vote victory? he's overperforming biden just about everywhere. only down here in the southwest corner of the state is he underperforming. this is preliminary. when we have 100% of the votes, then you can run the anal sils as the final analysis. senator kelly is ahead of joe biden in every county, meaning he's getting a higher percentage of the vote in every county except this one. let's ask the question of blake masters because donald trump was very competitive in this state. let's ask the other question, is the republican overperforming donald trump anywhere? and the answer is, only in that tiny county where joe biden is not. if you're looking at this map --

and again, it's preliminary -- if you're blake masters, you're underperforming in every county but one. that's not a good sign. if it stays like this until the end, you'll lose. the question is, does it stay like that until the end? >> that's a good question. we'll find out fairly soon. stay right here with us. arizona election officials tell us they are now set to release new vote count numbers just minutes from now. as soon as we get them, you'll know those numbers as well. plus, is the gop ready to move away from donald trump? our special coverage continues next. i have moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. now, there's skyrizi. with skyrizi 3 out of 4 people achieved 90% clearer skin at 4 months, after just 2 doses. serious allergic reactions and an increased risk of infections or a lower ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms,

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customizes your car insurance so you only pay for what you need! (limu squawks) he's a natural. only pay for what you need. ♪liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty.♪ welcome back. as we are awaiting more midterm election results, former president donald trump has officially revealed he will make a, quote, special announcement tuesday night, a tease of his intentions for 2024. gop attitude toward the former president. >> yeah, and anderson, it's really interesting to note the difference between the nation overall and republicans on donald trump. but also noticing a change for donald trump from when just two years ago he was president. so, in the exit polls across the country, people who voted in the house of representatives election this year, 39%,

according to these exit polls, had a favorable view of donald trump. 58%, unfavorable. that is a significant downgrade from where he was two years ago when he had 46% favorability and 52% unfavorable. among republicans this year, 73% of republicans still have a favorable view of donald trump, those that voted in this election. 23%, unfavorable. and then we asked, was trump a factor in your vote in this election? a slim majority of voters across the country, 54%, say no, donald trump was not a factor. but where he was a factor, he was a negative factor. 28% said they voted to oppose trump in their vote for the house of representatives. 16% said to support trump. and we look at this among republicans as well. this, i think, may be one of the most interesting numbers tonight. 62% of republicans say donald trump was not a factor in their vote, a non-factor.

when he was a factor for republicans, it was more in support. 31% voted to support trump. only 4% of republicans, anderson, voted to oppose donald trump. >> i want to read from this statement. it's not the thing where you have a graphic for. i think the more interesting statement is how this statement begins which is, news corp., which is fox, "wall street journal" is all in for ron desanctimonious, with great public over all numbers for republicans were just average, middle of the pack, including covid and who has the advantage of sunshine, capitals, where people from badly run states up north would go no matter what -- no matter who the grch was, just like i did. >> all of of you are yo english teachers have having a coronary right now. >> he's going to make a statement, whether it's i'm

running for president or i will announce when i'm running for president. >> i think he is really feeling the pressure right now. i don't think -- i don't know that they expected the level of anger that they're getting from all corners of the republican party after pulling that stunt against desantis. that's number one. number two, i think the size of the desantis victory, in florida, where the president lives, that was loud -- that was a loud statement, and they obviously heard it. you know, for most of his career in the republican party trump is used to being the person that is the most praised person by republican media outlets, conservative media outlets. today it's desantis, he's the one getting all the praise and all the attention right now. if there's one thing that we know about president trump, center of attention, that's what matters. and it's desantis today. so to me, all of those variables went in to -- that's what came out the other end of that. which is a little scary. >> please pay attention to me. can i just make one point about

this so called special announcement. my reporting today, my colleague kristen holmes' reporting today is that lots of people were trying to a talk him out of running. so there is still a possibility, i believe, that this could just be a special announcement, not for the presidency or some kind of head fake or saying i'm going to announce later. we don't know what this is, and in terms of wanting to get the attention back, that's what this is about. but we don't know -- we still don't know what it is, and so, you know, we don't know. >> i can predict what's happening behind the scenes right now. every prominent republican is begging him not to do this, they have been for weeks. >> are they actually calling him? >> i'm certain, i'm certain. especially if there's a georgia senate runoff for control of the senate. even as i closest advisers are telling him this is not the time to do it, it's going to look reactionary, he as of now is definitely planning to do it but with donald trump nothing is definite until he does it.

this may be a game time decision to go either direction and i think it should be covered as such. he cannot stand not having the attention on him. i want to note, a number of republican governors outperformed donald trump. sununu, dewine in the states he had won in, it's the home state of florida, the conservative media has wrapped their arms around ron desantis, he can't stand it. >> isn't his daughter getting married this weekend? >> yes, at mar-a-lago. >> isn't there something he could be doing with his family? >> one would think, one would think. >> i would just agree with alyssa on just one piece. judging by this publication there, this message, memo, whatever you want to call it the president put out, it's clear he's not in a good mood. >> this man is a student of people. >> nothing gets past this man. >> clear he's not in a good mood. putting your hand in a blender calling donald trump right now. i'm not sure there's a long line of republican, whether they're loyalists or confidants, that say they'll call somebody else,

make a phone call to a staffer and say, what kind of mood is the president in, did you see the press release, that's the kind of mood, and they'll say, call him tomorrow. not many people are calling him right now, put it off, don't put it off. i saw jins miller put out a statement earlier and saying recommend we wait until the end of the election. a lot of people are saying that, doing the right thing, and i agree with gloria and alyssa, saying that he may well -- he may go up there on the podium and say, changed my mind, announce something completely different. >> january. >> yes. >> all this week, though, doesn't it? >> he's madly pushing all the buttons that used to work for him now, and they're not working. if he goes out there on tuesday, having teased this thing the way he has teased it, and it's just a cannon rolls out and a flag comes out that says pop, i think that, you know, he's in a fragile position right now. i don't think that would help him at all. >> we're just minutes away from a new batch of votes to be posted from arizona, control of

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♪ at any moment now election officials in arizona are expected to report thousands of additional votes in the state's largest county. what will that mean for the high stakes races for senator and governor in arizona? we're standing by to find out. stay with us. the midterm election and the battle for control of the united states congress, they are still unfolding right now. this hour. we should know more. i'm wolf blitzer, and this is election night in america, continued. so far tonight democrats have made some gains as we've gotten new vote tallies in the critical

arizona and nevada senate races. we'll see if that trend holds up in the next round of results coming very, very soon. remember, these two races should potentially, potentially decide who controls the u.s. senate. this is the state of play in the fight for the senate right now. look at this. democrats hold 48 senate seats, republicans have 49. at 49, that's two seats sort of 51 that they need to win back control of the senate. the fight for control of the house of representatives is also undecided right now. democrats so far have won 195 seats. republicans just won some more seats. they now have 211 seats. this is just seven seats short of the 218 needed to win the majority in the house. 29 house seats are still undecided as of this minute. republicans moving closer to their goal of trying to take back the majority in the house.

let's go to arizona first right now, cnn kyung la is on the scene for us. coming out any moment now? >> any moment now. i keep looking at my laptop and refreshing, our anticipation is that sometime this hour, we haven't been given an exact time but we are hearing that this county will be releasing another trench of votes. so this is going to give us a better picture of those early votes before election day. these are from saturday night, sunday and monday. so before election day, early votes. now, we're expecting a drop of about 60,000 plus. we have not been given an exact number, but we're going to see it on the county website. and so far these numbers, actually they have just come in. they have just come in. john, if you are there, we are looking at new numbers for mark kelly here in maricopa county. the current vote total out of

maricopa county is 642,691. nor blake masters, 539,795. and in the race for arizona governor, very, very tight as well. democrat katie hobbs at 627,778. kari lake, 573,284. i'm not going to do the math here but these races, percentage-wise, are looking fairly stable, pretty much where they were before this drop. so at least at the county level, it appears to be pretty stable. the thing that these campaigns are trying to tell us is that they anticipate that as the same day election votes come in, those votes that came in on tuesday, there could be some more shifting. we don't know which way they're going to go but the campaigns

are certainly hoping, or at least the republican campaigns, they anticipate it could be favorable to them but we don't know, wolf. the percentages on those, mark kelly is at 53%. blake masters at 45%. that is where it was before. >> all right, kyung lah, good work. >> as far as governor, katie hobbs at 52%. kari lake at 48%. percentage-wise, neither has changed with this latest vote total that has come out from maricopa county. the percentages have stayed the same, but numbers have risen. they've gone up. but again the percentages have not changed. >> interesting. important numbers indeed, kyung, thank you very, very much. talk about these numbers. looking good for mark kelly. >> that's why it's great to have reporters on the ground. we have the numbers before. they may update while we're

talking. as soon as they're punched in. everyone wants to check the data input. raw vote total, there's mark kelly, this is just maricopa county, not statewide, this is mark kelly in the county, these are the new numbers. he grows. getting 53% now, was getting 53% there. kyung, noted, stable. if you're in the lead, that's fine. you'd love to build it. we don't want to see it shrinking. raw vote totals, moving up to 539,795. that's 45%. we round up. stability in the race as we get more votes. if you're leading you're find with that. you would love to grow your lead but you're absolutely fine with that. this is the largest county in the state. i'll bring this down so you can see it here, joe biden just -- 2.2 #. joe biden the first democrat to win arizona since 1996 for the presidency. 2.2%, joe biden carried the county. that's eight points. that's eight points. so mark kelly in maricopa

county, we don't have the final numbers yet, this is preliminary, sorry if i keep repeating that, but it's important especially when people out there are questioning the integrity of elections. there is no question about these counts. the people doing this are professionals, they were then, they are now. mark kelly at 45%. at the moment he's overperforming the president in the most vital county in the state. if you're in the kelly campaign headquarters, your main goal, keep it above 50. if you can keep it stable or grow it, that's your goal. in this vote report he's met his goal. let's switch to the governor's race. bring this down in front here. new totals are not in yet. maricopa county, statewide in just a minute here, 585,000 to 627,728. i was scribbling. 52 3k9 to 48%. no change in the race. if you're the leader, again, you'd rather grow it but you're good with that as long as you stay ahead in the race. kari lake's raw vote total comes

up. the challenge is for the candidates behind. in nevada it's different, the republicans in the lead. in arizona, with the two republicans behind they need to make up ground. when you get stable, it's just not good enough. it's just -- simple math at home. >> good numbers for the democrats. >> they're good numbers for the democrats. you always love to grow but if you're in the lead and it comes in and you don't lose ground, you're good. >> yeah, and i'm sure katie hobbs and the senator are both very, very happy right now, with these latest numbers. >> i want to come out, to look, see these numbers, i do not believe these numbers have been added to this yet and someone can get in my ear if we know that's different. that vote total is about the same as it was before. double checked and triple checked. these are the statewide numbers, not added, i'm told. essentially you're both going to get additional votes. same percentage, shouldn't change this. that might change it on the margins. decimal point changes. new votes added to the system since they match what they had earlier in maricopa county, they'll even out as well. on the senators race when you

come statewide, 52, 47 # statewide even though senator kelly is winning by a larger margin in maricopa county. when those numbers come in, show them to you there. both democratic campaigns are happy. >> kyung, i understand you're getting new information on how many votes in maricopa county actually came in today. >> we're getting that as well as what the picture looks like ahead. so these are very important numbers if you're trying to keep track of what's happening in maricopa county. there were more ballots, more results released tonight than we anticipated. we were told about 60,000. we got 78 #,000. just a little over 78,000 ballots were released, and this is, again, from last saturday, sunday, and monday, these are early ballots, before election day. so what is left? the 17,000 so called box three, those ballots that had a little trouble at the vote centers, that couldn't go through because of the printer, so those are

being tabulated here, they still have to be reported. there are early ballots still left to process and tabulate. that's about 68,000 ballots. and they still have to verify some of these early ballots. they're about 29,000 of them. so there's still a lot of work left ahead, you know, these are significant numbers still coming out of maricopa county. it's still a bit of a road ahead before we know the actual results here. >> very interesting indeed. john, these numbers that are coming in, huge numbers still undecided. uncount, at least right now. >> but with the 78 #,000 as kyung noted. if you're involved in this race, a citizen of arizona, you want to know. here in washington everybody wants to know. this race is critical to the balance of power. people care about who controls the united states senate, there's still a long way to go but it's a smaller number than it was five minutes ago. look at it that way. and to the point, david chalian

can do this math for us, he's already working on it in a few minutes, they say the final numbers could be several more days. the question is, especially in the senate race, with 114,000 vote lead this is just maricopa county, not statewide yet, there are additional votes, how many votes are out. so if you look at -- if this were statewide, that's 99 #,000, i'm rounding up a little bit this point we call the race, one or two more sets of votes because the outstanding votes, you know, are pretty close when you match them up there. >> we're told by the way john that the new numbers are now included in the statewide numbers that we're getting right now, show us the governors. >> that's 114,894, the governor's race, katie hobbs numerically stretches to 26,879 #. this is still a very competitive race. this one, a closer race, again, so i was just saying about senator kelly. do this one more time for

clarity. 115,000 if you round that up. doing 68, plus 30, you're at 98. rounded that up a little bit. you're getting close here, just in maricopa county. if this were a statewide number, pretty close to a couple more vote reports. call this race. but if you look at this one, 26,000 votes. this is just maricopa county. this is the largest pool of outstanding votes but there are some more in pima county, updating the numbers throughout the night. if you're kari lake, you don't like what just happened, in the last voting report you were below the number, the percentage you need to catch up, but you have plenty of opportunity, right, 26 #, 27,000 vote lead. box three is called they set them aside on election day. work on them a little bit but there's plenty of votes here. kari lake, that last vote report, disappointing for her campaign, plenty of opportunity, this is, i want to emphasize,

people out there question these things, this is just maricopa county. >> largest county. >> smaller number than it was ten minutes ago. that's a good thing. they're making progress. >> and working really hard at the same time. right now i want to bring in the chairman of the maricopa county board of supervisors, bill gates, mr. gaetz, thanks very much for joining us, as you probably know the republican gunner in atorial candidate kari lake is accusing you and election officials of intentionally, intentionally misleading, and going ahead and blowing this -- rolling this process forward, and she's worried about the integrity of what's going on. i want you to listen to what she said. >> they're dragging their feet, and they're slow rolling the results, and they're trying to delay the inevitable. this is just an embarrassment, and the people of arizona are sick and tired of elections being run like we're in some banana republic. i have very little faith in some of the people that are operating that maricopa county elections.

i think they're incompetent. >> mr. gates, i want your reaction to what we just heard. >> well, wolf, thanks for having me. and it's really sad to hear that we have the republican nominee of governor, for governor here in arizona, who's talking like that. i think the votes that were just released, 78,000, that doesn't happen magically. it happens because of the people behind me, all the people here in maricopa county elections, who are working so hard. they're working 14 to 18 hour days every day. we're about to go into a holiday weekend with veterans day, and they're going to continue to work those kind of hours on the holiday, friday, on saturday, and sunday. and i understand that kari lake wants us to move quickly, and a lot of people do. but you know what's more important, is that this is done accurately. that is the focus. and that, you know, like for all of these mail-in ballots, that

those are signature verified. this is very important to me as an elected official, that only eligible people, only eligible votes are count. i would think that kari lake would be interested in that as well. that's something that i ran on, on the board of supervisors. i support id at the polls and all those things, they might take a little bit more time but it ensures that only those eligible people are voting. >> mr. gates, it's john king. i just want to follow up on that. thank you for your time, i know you're incredibly busy. i've been to your office, offices like yours all around the country, and these are honest hard working people who don't get paid enough money doing the work of democracy. but to kari lake's point, i want you to explain. number one, you're a republican. i want our viewers to know that. the republican candidate for governor is questioning an elected official, when she says that on television. when i asked your call on pima

county earlier, in that room behind you kari lake has representatives who have eyes on everything that is happening, correct, so if she had any -- if they saw anything specific that they could raise questions about, she would be able to say i saw x as opposed to i accuse them of things with absentee information. sorry to ask a long question. there are democratic and campaign representatives behind that glass behind you who are watching everything that's happening? >> so, i don't know, that's a great question, and you're right, there are republicans and democratic eyes on everything through the process, and i actually know this from personal experience because before i was elected to the board of supervisors i actually used to be a republican lawyer who would come down here and observe this, back in the 2006 race it was a close congressional race between jd hayworth and harry mitchell, i was down here for days after election day. that's what we do. that is essential to the

process. we could not do what we're doing here today and have been doing for the past few days if we're not for the democrats and the republicans who have eyeballs on everything. >> yeah, excellent, excellent point. chairman gates, when will we see the first of the, what, 290,000 same day dropoff ballots? >> yes, we should start to see those tomorrow, i believe, we'll start seeing those come in, again, that 290,000 mail-in ballots that were dropped off on election day on tuesday, that's the most ever we've had on election day. and, in fact, it broke the previous record by 70 #%. so it's a lot of ballots that people are trying to process behind me. but we're going to get through it. we're going to do it on a timeline, which is frankly consistent with what it takes, how long it takes us to get this done. every two, and every four years. so there's nothing out of the ordinary, it makes me wonder if

kari lake has really been following elections in the past in maricopa county. >> well, chairman gates to clarify will we see the first of those results as early as tomorrow? >> yes. >> any idea what time? >> i think -- i would expect, again, in the evening. i don't have an exact time, but tomorrow evening we should see the next release of votes. >> and we'll of course be with you tomorrow night, we'll be watching all of this unfold, as the stakes are so enormous, right now. once again, i want to echo what john told you, chairman gates, we are grateful to you, all the workers who are working around the clock, to get the job done. this is democracy, in action, right now, and we appreciate it. very, very much. thanks so much for joining us, i assume we'll continue this conversation tomorrow. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> coming up, new projections, we're about to make, in minutes, plus, as we wait to learn which party will control the u.s.

house of representatives we're going to pour over the latest numbers and tell you what cnn is still looking for to actually make a call. stay with us. ♪ here goes nothing. hey greg. uhh...hello?

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we have two projections to make in the u.s. house. in nevada, democratic incumbent dina titus reelected in a las vegas area district, republicans had seen this as a potentially big pickup opportunity. she's reelected, though, according to our projection. in nevada democratic congressman steven horsford reelected in nevada's fourth district as well. take a closer look at the state of play for control of the house right now. right now the democrats have 197. democrats, 2 # 11, republicans, the democrats have four pickups so far, the republicans 16 # pickups, 27 # seats remaining right now. let's go over to john king and take a closer look at the house of representatives, it's very dramatic what's going on in this battle for the house, john. >> it is, here i was just looking closely at those nevada districts, i'll come back in a minute. quick point about them. as you note, these are the called races, the current state

of play, 211 # to 197 #. republicans are closer, republicans are closer, and very close, seven seats away from taking the house majority, and taking the speakers gavel away from nancy pelosi. and that tells you right there, doesn't it, that these races are not called, right, but they are ahead in more than enough races, more than enough races. but republicans now have 212 seats in the house. they thought they could still get more than a ten seat gain but they were talk 25, 30 seat gain not that long ago. see what happens. this number, races that are called, touch on the two you just called. you noted republicans thought they could have an opportunity. titus district is here, unemployment at the peak of covid was 28% in nevada. las vegas was so punished by the covid pandemic. the unemployment rate has dropped down, below 5% now, but gas prices are a buck more than the national average in nevada. republicans thought this is a place we could pick up.

joe biden carried this district by nine points and republicans had grand ambitions we're going to beat democrats in solid districts. didn't happen. this is the reason that republicans -- when you come out, you can find districts like that all across the country and that is the reason. republicans had ambition, saying we can win districts that biden carried by seven, eight, nine points. some examples of that but way fewer than the republicans thought, wolf, why the number is right there. republicans are knocking at the door of 218 seats and they very well could get there. the probability is they will get there. but this idea that we're going to get there with a massive majority, your eyes don't lie, that's not going to happen. >> hasn't happened yet. we'll see what happens in extra innings, as we say, right now, watching what's going on. david chalian, i understand you've done some calculation, these new numbers that have just come in as far as the arizona senate race is concerned. >> to be fair our decision desk did the actual mathematical calculations but we've been looking and this is exactly what john was just talking to you about, wolf, when that new batch of arizona votes came in, and it

benefitted the democratic candidates in arizona, but what does that mean, then, for what the republicans need now that there are fewer votes left outstanding? right now in arizona, statewide, 540,000 votes, approximately, this is an estimate, not an exact science, 540,000 votes now remain outstanding after that big batch of votes from maricopa county. and the calculations of what is needed for each candidate are now dramatically different. blake masters has now moved up to a range of a need number between 58 and 60% of everything remaining. so when you watch arizona votes come in, going forward, look to see if blake masters is winning 58 to 60% of him, because that's what he needs. mark kelly's number now is down to between 37 and 39% of what's outstanding. that is all he needs when you see the votes come in of what is outstanding to maintain this position and win this race. >> then when you come here,

that's why it gets so interesting. let me just put this up here. blake masters, forgive me for turning my back. let's say he needs 58%, low end of that range. he needs 58%. give him the benefit of the doubt and move it to the low end of that range. that's an estimate. could be lower than that. might be 57.5 or 57. it tells you, he needs this with the rest of the vote, that's where he is right now. so that just tells you, that's a big step, he needs to dramatically overperform how he's doing right now and here's the additional challenge. most of the votes are in these counties that are blue. now, maricopa county is a competitive county but it's a democratic county in recent years, the president joe biden carried it by two points two years ago, let's go back, i want to go back and look at this, at 2016, and remind people what it was in the presidential race then, the presidential race then, it was very competitive, donald trump carried it with 49. here you have a county, you know, 49%, in the 2016 race, 50% in the race in the president two years ago, come forward here, so

mark kelly is doing better than he has to do. blake masters, if he needs 58% of the statewide vote, are you going to get that in maricopa county, 61% of the remaining vote, most of the outstanding ballots are here, it's a blue county where senator kelly is getting 53%. blake masters getting 45%. dramatically overperform in the remaining votes. you just heard mr. gates tell us, #00,000 of those votes are ballots dropped off. people showed up on election day but ball -- republicans tend to vote more on election day. it's possible. 200,000 votes. there's your statewide numbers right now, 114,000 vote lead. the math is possible. but when you look at the blue and you look at the number one blue, kelly's getting 53% right now. in pima kelly's getting 62% right now. most of the votes are in those two counties at the moment are blue and where senator kelly is doing even better than his statewide number and blake masters needs that. it's not impossible but that's a step hail. >> very, very step hill, i must

say, indeed. david chalian, i understand you've done work calculation on the numbers coming and how they're impacting the arizona governor's race. >> i don't know, i think i heard the elections officials say when you were talking, 290,000 same day dropoff, closer to 300,000 coming from maricopa county in terms of the same day dropoff, which will impact the governor's race as well, overall our estimate again after we saw that batch of votes from maricopa county come in earlier, there are 540,000, roughly, votes, outstanding, in arizona. obviously the biggest bulk of that will be coming from maricopa county. now, look at what happened here to what each candidate in the governor's race needs to win. this changed from just before that vote batch when we showed you this. now, because katie hobbs got to increase her lead a bit, in that last batch, kari lake has a bit of a taller hill to climb here. she now needs between 52 and

54%, a range of what is outstanding in arizona, and the hobbs win percentage has gone down. it's now between 47 and 49%. earlier it was like they both roughly needed about half. but now you can see, when those votes came in, and hobbs stretched her lead a little bit, she now has a bit, a bit of an easier task here than does kari lake. >> very interesting indeed. all right, we're going to continue to monitor what's going on. this is crucial right now, coming up, we're expecting another new round of votes from nevada. we'll share them with you as soon as they come in. plus, democratic governors scored major victories all across the country. the chair of the democratic governor's association, standing by to join us live, that's next. e clean clothes to more people in crisis. with every purchase of tide hygienic clean you can help too.

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we expect new votes very soon out of nevada. and democratic governors are celebrating after major victories in this midterm election. some of them, california, gavin newsom, illinois, j. b. pritzker, michigan, gretchen whitmer, in pennsylvania, josh shapiro, in maryland, wes moore, and in massachusetts, maura healey, and joining us is roy cooper, the chairman of the democratic governor's association, thank you so much for joining us tonight. first things first we have two outstanding governor's races, one in nevada, one in arizona, what are you seeing and hearing about the prospects of democrats

taking either or both of those? >> democratic governors had a very good night. we beat expectations, and historical trends, the worst we can do is plus one in net governor's races, and if we can win arizona and nevada, that would be plus three, already we have beat the midterm for any president's party in governor's races since 1986. we know, though, that arizona is a critical state for us to flip. katie hobbs has been strong, she's been courageous. i believe she's going to win this race, but we're all on the edge of our seats. we know that kari lake has been sowing the seeds of confusion, and chaos, using the donald trump playbook, but we know, but we know, particularly with these

election workers that are working so hard late at night, that this election is going to be decided by the number of votes count, not by how loud kari lake screams. >> governor, it's abby phillip, thank you for being here tonight. so as you just described you had a lot of successes last night, but particularly in the so-called blue wall of governors, michigan and wisconsin picking up those governor's mansion, also in pennsylvania as well. given the role that those states play, especially in our presidential politics, what do you think the takeaway is, especially for democrats, about what the direction is of those states going into the next two years? >> with the attacks on our democracy that we've seen, governors are the last line of defense. and it was critical that we elect democratic governors in

pennsylvania, michigan, and wisconsin, and we did that. when you look at what this u.s. supreme court, trump-influenced supreme court has done in stripping away women's reproductive freedom, you know, your abortion rights shouldn't be decided by your zip code but that's where we are. so these decisions are going to be made in state capitals across the country. having democratic governors there can protect our rights and freedoms, and when you have somebody like kari lake who is an election denier, who may very well just decide to go by the trump playbook and ignore the popular vote of the people when it comes time to select presidential electors, it shows that it's even more critical that we elected democratic governors in these swing states. right now, even without having count arizona and nevada, democratic governors represent

more than 54% of the united states population. that is so important right now when we have so much on the line. i think for years republicans have concentrated -- actually for decades, they have worked hard in state and local elections, i think democrats have not done that as well. i think we, with the election of donald trump, we've been waking up to that, the democratic governor's association invested three times the amount of money that we did in 2018, in these elections, because we knew how important it was, and it turned out that we had the right formula, people knew that democratic governors were going to protect their pocketbooks, and their freedoms, and we know that they're there to protect democracy. >> governor, it's casey hunt, it's good to see you tonight. we've rightfully talked quite a bit about your successes but i want to ask you about the state of florida, where the democratic

g gubernatorial nominee lost by 1.5 million votes in a state that used to be so, so close. what happened in florida to charlie crist? and are you going to get not throwing a bigger roadblock up in ron desantis's way come 2024? >> well, i think it's important to remember what kind of midterm we were dealing with. we have inflation where people are paying more at the gas pump than the grocery store. we have the historical trend of the party of the president and first midterm not doing well. so we knew those wins were against us. you add to that one of the hardest things to do in politics is to beat an incumbent governor. and what we did at the democratic governor's association, we concentrated on those states that we believed that we could win, that were important swing states. we have not given up on florida. i believe that we can regroup there, reassess there, and texas, these states are too

important, it involves too many people, i believe that ron desantis kind of politics are not in the long run going to be what the people of florida want, nor is it going to be what the people of the united states want. he's planning to run for president. we all know what he's doing. >> is it the demographics, governor, in texas and florida, or were -- was it the candidate in each state? that was the problem, and not overturning those governor's mansions. >> yeah, you had two strong incumbents. and i think you had a democratic party that was concentrating on protecting our incumbents. we had more than we ever had. we were defending 13 incumbent seats, in critical states. so we made those elections there. no, we're not going to give up on florida, and i think it's important that we reassess there, make sure that we are speaking to the people, democratic governors have heard what the people have said to them, and they've listened to

that. and i think that in florida we can do the same thing. >> governor, before we let you go i want to ask you about president biden, who said yesterday that it is his intention to run for president again, he'll make that decision early next year. i know you have said you want him to run. what is your message to fellow democrats who aren't azure as you are, maybe even opposed to that idea? >> look at the results. in 18 short months president biden has passed three major pieces of legislation that have helped us invest in child care, reducing costs to working parents, allowing them to be back into the workforce, connecting people with high speed internet access, capping the cost of prescription drugs for seniors and capping insulin costs, lowering energy costs for people, repairing our roads and bridges, the long promised infrastructure legislation finally came under joe biden. i've known him for a long time.

you can never, ever count him out. we know that his approval ratings weren't as high but that's happened to great presidents over the years during the first midterms. i think now that we have this -- these funds in place we're going to be investing in them over the next couple of years, and i think people are going to feel the results of the success, in washington, and a lot of that has come from the leadership of joe biden. >> governor roy cooper of north carolina and the chair of the democratic governor's association, thank you so much for joining us tonight, appreciate it. >> thank you guys. and coming up, the georgia runoff that could decide control of the senate, we're going to go there live as raphael warnock, and herschel walker's campaigns are preparing for a month long battle, our election coverage continues in a moment.

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we got a large batch of notes from arizona, waiting for nevada, two very close senate races could determine the control of congress. raphael warnock and herschel walker are heading to a runoff election next month. let's go to cnn's nick valencia in canton, georgia, both candidates held first public events today since the runoff was announced. >> yeah, anderson and today is the start or was the start, rather, of a very long four weeks for raphael warnock and herschel walker. it was walker who kicked off his campaign alongside republican senator ted cruz the first in what will no doubt be a cavalry of republican leaders to come down to the state over the course of the next four weeks. a source tells me they kicked off in canton deliberately. part of the their strategy is to get out the vote in red counties where they underperform when compared to incumbent republican

governor brian kemp who won his midterm election and avoided a runoff. at the rally both kruz and walker boldly predicted a win in the runoff. it was after the rally was over that we caught up with senator cruz and asked him if we thought it was a good for former president trump to stump alongside him as well. >> we're in overtime. that means we've got a runoff. hey, i was built for this. i was built for this. god prepared me for this moment right here. >> made clear he will welcome the support if president trump, who's supporting him, he would welcome the support of ron desantis, he would welcome the support of anyone coming to campaign. >> meanwhile, incumbent democratic senator raphael warnock kicked off his runoff of campaign a couple blocks away from ebenezer baptist church. he appeared to make a plea to those who may not have voted for

him, saying stick with me the next four weeks, pinning it as a moral decision, not so much between a republican and a democrat, as one between a right and wrong candidate. as i mentioned, it's going to be a very long four weeks and once again georgians find themselves in the middle of deciding who's going to control the senate in the united states, anderson. >> yeah, long indeed. the white house -- thanks very much. the white house says that president biden will support senator warnock in any way he can but as of now no specifics. >> clearly the president will do whatever senator warnock needs him to do to help him win. the dnc made significant investments in georgia this year but again i don't have anything right now to lay out as far as any travel that the president will be making. i actually have not -- i have not heard of a request, i just don't have anything to share on that. >> let's talk about it with our team here. van, i mean, there's a lot of folks from the democratic party who would be very eager, obviously, to help campaign for

raphael warnock, do you think biden will be one of them that will be invited there? >> i think he will be. it may not be the -- if trump shows up it's going to be a big deal. biden will do what it takes to be helpful. here's what i think is important about georgia. you can waste a lot of money and a lot of time. this is not like the last time. you only have four weeks, you've got to be smart and you've got to be surgical. digital is going to matter a lot more than tv ads. graphics advertising is going to matter more than rallies and credible influencer, are going to matter more than celebrities. if biden wants to come, fine, i don't think it hurts but it probably doesn't help. you've got a bunch of deejays a preachers, social media influencers who have not been called in yet. i'm telling you right now, we were talking about this at the break, you have deflation among some black voters. you can talk about that more if you want to. deflation among black voters. they're not going to want to

hear from big establishment people, hearing from people closer to the grassroots. if those people get the support, digital platform and the money, you can get there. >> how about obama? that's big establishment people. >> obama, that's different. >> he's -- yes, sort of the nuclear weapon of -- turnout. >> him and oprah. >> do you think obama would move there for the month? >> i wish he would. i wish he would. >> i don't know, anderson, i'll ask him. but the -- a friend just sent me numbers from just from wisconsin, but i think they're a make microkoz am of -- cast ballot in the midterm elections, large black population in milwaukee. that is the lowest the last four elections. i mean, the lowest that there was. so, there is a sense of

deflation. i think that's a problem and that's a particular problem -- >> one of the dangers we are having right now is that people are so stunned that the republican -- the republicans are actually having a healthy response. they are looking at their mistake. they are trying to figure something out. democrats now are so happy they are still alive we are not looking at our own problems. there are some soft spots, there are some challenges that we have. if we don't improve our game in georgia in a serious way, we are going to have problems. >> this is incredible. because, what was it? i can't remember how many days it was before the election. but before we had conversations, about, there's going to be a lot of soul searching the democratic party about what we need to do and what we need to change -- >> and they're still should be hispanic votes around the country. we have talked about how they communities are different, and south florida is different than the west and so on. but that margin was 40% in favor of democrats four years ago, and 21% in this election

according to exit polls. i think part of it is that these communities have been lashed by these economic circumstances. but there are other factors as well. there is a lot to chew over here. democrats should feel grateful to have escaped as well as they did in this election for the reasons we have been discussing. but that should not paper over real challenges. >> the enthusiasm gap, which we saw in all the exit polls we see, is that republicans, despite the results, were much more enthusiastic about voting this time -- >> some of them voted for us. some of them voted for us. >> right. i think that's a big issue. look, it seems to almost be a constitutional requirement these days that georgia determines who controls the senate. so, i think that adds a level of involvement on the part of the electorate. >> than, you were talking about

grassroots activities being more effective than tv ads. and i agree with that. republicans are also feeling that, there is a story in politico tonight that mcconnell's outside group, the senate leadership fund, was has finalized an agreement with the best republican grassroots guy in georgia, the governor, brian kemp, he has agreed to transfer his data analytics, micro-targeting program to the senate leadership fund. that group normally just runs tv ads. it's like mass media. that is like their air cover. this is the first time they have ever engaged in a grassroots program and have spent $2 million on it. they have hired camp senior advisers -- there were lots of discussions about how to get kemp with arms around herschel walker. -- >> it's a major difference for us. >> to put a final point on what scott is saying, a lot of the criticism is about the rnc, right? where is the rnc on these

things that scott is talking about? on the ground game, get out the vote? it's absent in a lot of places. i think there's going to be a lot of soul searching in the republican party about what ron did on the national level and why there was not more of a national effort to go and drag bodies. >> and just real quick from that ted cruz interview, that was a greenlight for donald trump to come and he's not going to be able to help himself. it only hurts herschel walker. and by the way, we saw this in 2020, where donald trump could bring 20,000 people out but they didn't necessarily go to the polls. part of it was just seeing the trump show. it's like a grateful dead show. you show up but you don't necessarily go and cast a ballot afterwards. >> some of them may have voted for herschel already. >> exactly. -- in fact, i think, it hurts him. but this -- factor is huge. >> in an election like this, you have a lot of experience here -- you have people who have voted for. you've got two challenges, one to get those same people to vote for you. does anybody here think that there is any way to get

somebody who voted for the other guy to come over to you -- so, if you are warnock, you can drag a warnock, and if you are walk or you can drag a few warnock? i doubt it. but it's such a close race. >> -- new numbers out of nevada are coming up after the break. tonight, t pure zzzsquil sleep plus next day energy with melatonin to help you fall asleep naturally... plus extended-release b-vitamins. wake up feeling refreshed. pure zzzs. sleep better. wake up your best.

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>> election officials are working into the night in arizona right now with hundreds of thousands of ballots still to be counted in critical contests. we are also watching vote counting in nevada right now, where additional results were just released. those states are key to the ongoing fight for control of the united states senate, as election night in america continues. i am wolf blitzer in the cnn election center. we are tracking all the votes

right now as they come in. i want to go right to cnn's john king to break down the new numbers from nevada, first of, all for us. these new numbers are significant. >> they are significant. they are already factoring into what you see here and i'm going to write them on the board in a minute. the numbers are factored in to what you see right here. these are the statewide numbers. the republican challenger adam laxalt is still 1054 votes ahead. that now it's closer to 13,000 a few minutes ago. 48 point 48.0. so just one point ahead in this race. you see 400 -- the new votes that just came in from this northwest county, washout county, reno and the areas to the north of the border, i will go to the county in the middle part is want to put the numbers up in front of you and see the latest numbers come in -- excuse me, one second, while i turn my back to see. -- 11, 182, which is 61%. this is from washout washout -- county. 36%. so, why does that matter?

if you look at the statewide vote, she is trailing right now. so, simple math at home -- of the additional votes are being counted, again, reported, over the next day or so -- she obviously needs to overcome this. she needs to overcome by a smaller margin now because she's getting closer. so, the reason she close the gap is that she got 61% of the votes to 36% for adam laxalt. he's been winning so far 56% of the vote statewide -- she needs to pass him by 51 or 52. but if she is getting 61, she is going to narrow that gap. i want to bring us down a little bit and move it down here -- to talk about why this is significant. the biggest batch of votes -- we can move it over, here excuse, me wolf blitzer the -- biggest batch of votes is here. -- las vegas, the suburbs around, at the biggest part of the state. it's close to 75%, 73, 74% of the population and it will be over 70% of the statewide, vote down in -- that's the most significant. but this is a swing county in the north west part of the state.

the places we look here, especially in a close race, the winner of this county eight times out of ten is going to win the state. -- second largest county in the state -- she is getting 50% in the county right now. the new votes came in for 51%. she's over performing yesterday, if you will, from yesterday in the day before. -- she is trailing, so, she needs, that she is trailing statewide. -- the governor's, race why this is important. actually, now, this has changed. this is a change in the governor's race. just moments ago -- the incumbent exceeds steve cisa lack. and the republican challenger joe lombardo -- and as these new came into the senate race they also tabulate the senate race and a democratic candidate has pulled ahead. i want to go to the statewide numbers in that race so we can -- see them here and you will see that he is still behind. so, he is behind, so governor steve sisolak, that's what he needs, he needs to overwhelmingly make up the gap and he still behind when it comes to the senate race. she is behind by by a much mueller margin, right?

800,000 votes, which is why this is so important. over the next day or two, maybe later tonight as we get more of those votes, the raw vote total count but if you are trailing you just need to -- he's ahead of you. but now it's getting to the close point where it's -- point or two behind this. and so you are getting 61% in this one county like that you are incredibly encouraged. the question is, and gary tuchman is on the ground for us here, how many votes are left and then what percentage of that you need? it represented has shrunk a little bit and what she needs to win. but it's progress for her. >> let's go to gary tuchman right now. he is on the ground for us in clark county, largest county in nevada right now. that is where las vegas is. what do we expect tomorrow? a lot more votes being counted tomorrow? >> that's right, wolf. the tabulators ardennes tabulating tonight here at the clock county election headquarters. they will be back tomorrow morning. there are still tens of thousands votes to tabulate here. at least 50,000 votes.

we were told there would be a big rely's release of votes on the website tonight. -- there are still 50,000 and we must point out, wolf, that there are 17 counties in the state. this is the largest county in this is the most democratic county. so, this is an important place to observe because this could change the race dramatically. wolf? >> we will spend the day watching those words come in. brianna keilar is watching all of this unfold for us as well. brianna, show us where the nevada votes are actually coming from. >> gary just walked us through the latest in clark county. let's look now at a couple of other counties in nevada and what is still to come and looking at washoe in the western edge of the state, the second most populous county, of course, home to reno -- officials there are just released more than 80,000 new votes. last night officials there had told us about 20,000 votes remained, which included early ballots dropped off on election day. a reminder, though, that more mail-in ballots will continue to arrive by mail between now and saturday. but officials say they do not

have an estimate of how many that will be. they did receive about 4000 by email yesterday, though. and then we are also hearing from election officials in douglas county -- it's a smaller county, just south of washoe -- they report about 7000 votes to count there. this is a county that typically leans red. so, still a lot to watch, wolf, as we wait for that saturday mail in a ballot deadline. >> certainly we will be watching together with you. thanks very much. i want to go to david chalian right now. david, you are looking at these nevada votes from what we call our battleground desk right now. what are you seeing? >> yeah, our decision desk team just put together these calculations after those votes were tabulated from washoe county that brianna was showing you -- 90,000 votes remain uncounted in nevada. and after those votes were added, now that they knew we need to win percentage for catherine cortez masto, the

democratic incumbent, it is in this range of 52 or 54% -- so, she needs 52 to 54% of that outstanding 95,000 in order to win that race. now, adam laxalt is still in the lead for his needed percentage range is lower. he needs between 43% and 47%. but i just want to note -- john was explaining this -- she just won 61% of that batch in the reno area. now that means she significantly overperformed in that batch what she needs with outstanding vote. not every batch will look like that. but that is how people should watch the votes coming in. does katherine cortez masto start achieving this 52% to 54% of the remaining votes, wolf? >> -- very important indeed. john, you are looking closely, adam laxalt the republican candidate, katherine cortez masto -- ahead by only 8000 votes and -- she needs 52% and maybe a little more than that and the

remaining vote statewide -- so, statewide, she's getting 48% right now. so, okay, you would say at home, will, she needs to exceed her performance. that is right. she needs to do better in the remaining count than she has done so far. but -- and this is a very important but -- most of the votes, the preponderance of them, our here in clark county, where she is getting closer that 52%. so, if she can do a little bit better -- if in clark county she can turn that 52 to a 53 or a 54, closer to 55, then that would exponentially increase her odds of catching up. because most of the votes are here. so, she is already close to what she needs at the statewide level here -- this, obviously, you have to factor in these other counties, there are other votes -- explain. but if she can boost her total here, where most of those votes are from, marginally -- not a ton -- she can stay around that ballpark street a little bit, but stay up, there stay well above 50%, it's possible out here, you don't expect her to

do that, in those counties. so, it's critical -- she is running about 52% right now in clark county. she needs to boost that number a bit in the remaining votes to come in, this percentage needs installment, and if he does, she is in play. but it is very tight. 8000 votes -- the data, like arizona, it's very competitive. >> that's why we -- were a 95,000 uncounted votes in nevada right now. so, there is potential, and a lot to unfold. dana, back to you. >> thanks, wolf and john. this is so fascinating because democrats from, really, the beginning of the cycle looked at nevada and said that she is the most vulnerable democrat. >> yep. >> and they were worried that she is going to lose. she still might. a republican challenger is still ahead. but oh my goodness, it is so close. and it's so consequential to the balance of power here in washington. >> yeah, it really is, dana. it is wild that it is coming down to 8000 votes. it's like nothing really in the grand scheme of things.

and when you think about this -- we have talked so much about the house and what a surprise that was. the senate has been tracking more, i think, with what people expected it to be. but something like this -- it may seem like, okay, it's just one race, it's just one senator. but it really represents the same kind of environment across the map see change that we saw in the house the way that democrats really outperformed, because, as you pointed out, they just did not expect her to have a shot at winning a, at least when the polls were -- >> absolutely. everyone was hopeful on the democratic side. but the expectation was that one of those two seats, either nevada or arizona, would be a loss. and a lot of people were saying that it was more likely to be the nevada seat. so, we are looking at a possibility that that could hold for the democrats. and just to game this out, if democrats are able to hold on to those two seats and win a georgia runoff they would expand a majority in the senate

in a mid term year in which most democratic presidents lose a lot, including a lot of seats in the house, and seats in the senate -- so, it just underscores that this is a weird time. it is a really, really weird year. and this entire scenario is totally against the tides of history. and that is why we keep talking about democrats exceeding expectations and we are just having a conversation that most democrats in washington or elsewhere did not really expect to happen. >> yeah. we have been talking a lot about these republican candidates underperforming and not being the right fit for whatever race or whatever -- at this time. and that is really because it's -- it's not just me saying it. more importantly, it's what mitch mcconnell and certain republican leaders might. but this is a different case. mitch mcconnell poured a lot of his super pac --

his super pac for the lot of money into this race. >> yep. >> they were actually betting on adam laxalt being different from other republican candidates then in the other races they were not as excited about. >> -- i think they thought they would be much more competitive in arizona if they had gotten a different nominee and some serious infighting between mcconnell and the billionaire, peter thiel, who mcconnell thought was -- any idea what he was actually doing. he was involved in ohio as well. and that may turn out to be correct. there is a lot of finger pointing already going on on the republican side that we have talked about tonight, about some reporting that came out in politico that details some of rick scott's ambitions, potentially, to run against mcconnell, that basically have been completely sidelined because he went out there saying, i think at one point -- he may have said to you they knew that he was going to win 55 seats in the senate and now here they are they could end up

in the 40s. >> yes, and that economic message, overall, across the board, across the map -- something went wrong with the republicans economic message. this should have been an environment -- nevada is a state where in the stronghold for the democrats is clark county -- workers there were hit so hard by this economy. and yet here we are talking about a really competitive race. the republican argument did not break through. and i think they're going to be asking themselves why. >> we are going to be watching the votes change every single vote is going to matter -- as we see them counted in the next days and weeks. maybe not weeks -- hopefully not weeks, days! coming up, a new projection to make in minutes as control of the house hangs in the balance. our election coverage continues right after a quick break. 's hard for your family to remember they can use less. sweet pillows of softness! this is soft! holy charmin!

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>> right now we have a brand-new cnn projection to make for control of the u.s. house of representatives. democrat kim schrier has won a third term to represent the eighth district in washington state. she's a former pediatrician. let's go over to john king and see what's going on right now. john, a lot of viewers are asking why haven't you been able to make a projection, a call yet, for control of the house? >> here's what we have right now called races. republicans have won 211 seats in the new house. democrats have won 198 seat. it takes 218 to get a majority. so, republicans are on the doorstep, on the doorstep. they need seven more races. they are ahead in more than enough races. so, the probability is -- the probability is that the

republicans will get a narrow majority in the house of representatives but we are not there. 2022 republicans are leading -- to under 13 democrats leading. let's focus more on this. right now, this is where we are -- so easier to get republicans to 218. but the reason we are still here and we have not projected the republican majority is because it is still mathematically possible -- and i'm going to give you a scenario -- where democrats could -- could -- take the house back. we know they're already performing better than expected. this map has a lot more blue -- then kevin mccarthy in the rest of the problem thought it would have. -- let's go through a scenario -- and i want to stress it's a scenario. as we go through, ten democrats get there. let me show. you let's walk this through. these are in uncalled races, right? these are uncalled races, which our team, which i.d.s the data very, closely believe that democrats are likely to win. right? so, add those three to the 198. that gets you to 201. in this way's race -- i want to note, for anyone watching the data -- the republican candidate is

still ahead. -- it stretches up into northwestern maryland and the league has been narrowing, the outstanding vote is in -- it's an overwhelming democratic area, and our team was protecting those votes to come in as the democrat likely to win, and that's one scenario and it's not done yet. but that will get you to 201. how do you get to further from there? there are 11 more races where the democratic candidate is ahead and likely to win but it is not there yet, including several in california because of the jungle primary. you have democrats running against democrats, so, in several of those races we are so that the democrat will win. we just don't know which democrats yet. you have 201 and then you have 11. more so, if that plays out that way -- let me bring that, up and bring it up the other way, sorry about that, number one, and then number two -- wearing this in. i just need to get back in play. this brings us up to 212 when it slides away. this is when i wanted to get. it happens. 200 to. then you up to 212, you need 218, and democrats get six more. well, here is the next step in this. there are two states, alaska and maine, that have so-called ranked choice voting.

-- gets 50%, the bottom candidates after the top to get drop out, they look at the ballots, who is your second, george who is your third choice? in both alaska -- let me show you this, when we talk about the main maine race earlier -- today she's running against -- mary peltola, who is the democratic incumbent, has 47.3%. it's possible, as the vote count gets above 50, then baggage is dropped out, and then its second, choice and then it's very possible that the democrats believe that the special elections you will get to the finish -- line we will see. we are not there yet. that's why we say it is possible when you add it. if you add those as well and you have those then you have 214. realistic. it's quite realistic democrats get that number. now, the question is, can they get for more? can i get to 218? so, let's look at that. you come in here and you look at alaska. just want to acknowledge straight-up -- this is a scenario -- number two, this is a reach. it's difficult.

it's hard for democrats to get to 218. these districts that you see in the pink or purple shade, they include lauren boebert here in western colorado. she's a trump acolyte, very well-known in conservative circles. she is ahead now. she was trailing last night and they are still counting votes out here. and in four, former dale council member, running a tough race, benefiting from a big win by the democratic governor, a good win by the democratic senator. but lauren boebert is ahead at the moment with about 98% counted -- this one here, i said it was a reach. she's getting close to a narrow victory but she's not there yet. but it is still possible for her to pull that out. another one of these races, come back in. another one of these races out in california, a name you may have heard earlier in the trump administration -- david valley dale is one of the impeachment, and with that ten house republicans who voted to impeach donald trump. he is ahead right now but this is the district that joe biden carried by nearly 13 points and only about a third of the vote has been counted. a lot of mail balloting in california -- it's a tradition and intensively in democratic, so, we have votes to count here. congressman valley dale may well be -- but it is possible that this is still within reach of the

democrats, which is why we say, when you pull this out, you take the likely's -- the races where they are ahead -- they are ranked choice voting, where they think there is a very, very good possibility, and then these for -- this is why it is a reach, right? it gets there but it is possible. it is possible, if they get those four, that this turns into 280. the probability -- and it's more likely -- you get that narrow publican majority. just look where we are. republicans only need seven. democrats need to pull off -- it's like drawing through an inside. straight down trump lost the popular vote in donald trump, drawing an inside straight, and when the electoral college. it is possible. the probability is that you get a small republican majority. but a democratic win is still possible. >> possible indeed. our thanks very, much john, for that. coming, of florida governor ron desantis turns heads after winning reelection in a very dominating fashion. so, what do voters think of him? and could he challenge donald trump for the republican presidential nomination in 2024? stay right there.

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without a referral. enrollment ends december 7th. take advantage now. call or go online today. ♪ ♪ >> oh control of congress a still undetermined tonight, we saw a decisive win in florida for republican governor ron desantis. it's raising his national profile even higher and feeling even more speculation about a 2024 run for the white house. david chalian is looking at that. david? >> dana, some of the numbers behind that decisive, impressive reelection victory that ron desantis had, they are just eye-popping. look at the exit polls from florida. among independent voters in the florida governor's race, desantis won them by eight

percentage points, 53% to charlie crist's -- percent. -- this is an 18-point swing from four years ago, when he lost the independents by -- it gets even better for him among latino voters. so, take a look here in the florida governor's race. latinos split 58% for desantis, 48% for chris. they made up 21% of the overall electorate. an 18-point advantage for desantis after he lost latinos by ten points four years ago. a 28 point swing. his opinion of the governor and job approval, 59% of florida voters this week said they approve of the job he did, 41% saying they did not approve. and what about asking florida voters if they think their governor should run for president? 45% say yes, they want to see ronald desantis run in 2024 among the florida voters. a slim majority -- 52% -- say no.

but no doubt this next number will get a lot of attention at mar-a-lago and may be a reason why we are seeing the press releases where we are. do you want donald trump to run for president in 2024, we asked florida voters, in this election this year. only a third of florida voters -- 33% -- said yes. 64% of florida voters, dana, said they don't want to see trump run in 2024. >> okay, i think you are right, that might explain a lot of what we are seeing tonight. thank you so much, david. appreciate it. joining us now is miami mayor frances soares, president of the u.s. conference of mayors. thank you so much for coming on at this late hour. let's talk about miami-dade. i want to talk about the results there. marco rubio and ron desantis one -- percent of the vote in miami-dade county. just six years ago, in 2018, hillary clinton won the county with 63%. what how do you explain the dramatic republican gains in that area? >> yeah, dana, thank you, it's

about a 40-point swing from the 2016 election where hillary won by 30 points and the governor and the u.s. senator, rubio, won by about ten points. so, what i attributed to is the policies of republicans in miami. and in the case of the city of miami, we have kept taxes low, or reduced taxes to their lowest rate in our history. we have kept people safe. we are on the precipice of having one of the lowest homicide rates per capita in our history. and we -- innovation. we have 1.4% unemployment rate. we are number one in the nation and wage growth, number one in tech job growth. and number one in direct foreign investment. so, we have had a robust economy and those policies have helped create prosperity in our community. i think that is what has gained the confidence of voters in the county. >> the swing had a lot to do with how hispanics voted. and they went 58% for desantis

in florida. he only got 2020 -- excuse, me in 2020, he only got 44%. so, as a fellow republican, what do you make of that and how do you explain that? >> i think the beauty of hispanics in florida is that they're incredibly diverse. there's an incredibly diverse set of hispanic communities in the state of florida. i think part of it is -- you know, democrats tried to brand -- as latinx. i don't know how that works in other parts of the country but it does not seem to work in florida. then you have a situation where the first lady said that hispanic hispanics in texas were as unique as a san antonio taco. that certainly doesn't resonate with hispanics in south florida. i think the fact that you have candidates that are tailoring their messages to hispanics that are pro-america, believe in the american dream and who love this country tremendously -- many of which are exiles from

socialist and communist regimes and feel that republicans better understand the trauma that they left their countries from -- i think that has been a message that has resonated with south florida hispanics. >> as you know, the republican party tried to expand its reach into the hispanic community across the country. in fact, one republican operative i was with a nevada said to us that they want other states to be a lot more like florida, meaning the republican party to become more diverse. it does not look at this early hour like they have had a lot of success this year. why not? >> i think first you have to understand that the fact that we have been talking about success among hispanic republicans. it's something we have never talked about in the past. hispanics were dominated by democrats for a long time, and have been dominated by democrats for a while.

i think the fact that we are debating about how big of an impact republicans have with hispanic, i think, shows growth among hispanics with republicans. but i also do acknowledge that the gains among hispanics were not the same across the country as they were in florida and certainly in south florida. and i think what you will see is probably more surrogates coming from the south florida area campaigning across the country because, i think it's important to have people that connect with hispanics and that understand the nuances of different hispanic cultures to be able to communicate emissions that resonates and convince them to support republican causes. >> mayor francis suarez, president trump may announce his third presidential run next week. ronald desantis he's also talked about as a presidential contender in 2024. and i know you have not been that wild about either as a candidate. would you support either of them as a nominee of the republican party? >> i understand it's logical to

start talking about the next cycle already and the next election. i think we first have to figure out -- we are still counting votes tonight -- the ramifications of this cycle. >> he wants to announce on tuesday. do you want him not to? president trump is planning on announcing tuesday. should he hold off? >> there is nothing that i can say that is going to motivate the former president to do one thing or another. i think we will see what he does on tuesday. then i think we will see what the governor does. and i think we will see what they do with each other. because obviously, right now, it seems like the president is engaging heavily the governor and we will see how the governor responds. and we will see where the chips fall. there's a variety of other candidates have also expressed interest in running. and i think we will know a lot by the first quarter of next year. >> mayor francis suarez of miami, thank you so much for joining us. appreciate it. >> thank you, dana. >> and coming up, president

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>> the fight for control of congress playing out in realtime tonight as new numbers come in four critical battleground states. we are learning new information

about republican minority leader kevin mccarthy's quest to become the next house speaker. cnn chief congressional correspondent manu raju is on capitol hill. so, what are you picking up? hey, manu raju, you are on the show. it's anderson. hey, manu raju. trying to check in with him. poor guy has been running around all day. scott, let's go to you. i don't know why kevin mccarthy wants this job -- but he really does. is he going to get it? >> he's wanted it for a long time. and i think for most of this year he thought it was going to be a dream come true. but with this probable, slim margin that he is going to have, it's going to be more like a nightmare on most days. because there's gonna be a faction of republicans in the conference who, in order to get their votes on the floor -- in order to become speaker, it's not just a simple vote in your party. you have to go to the floor and get 218 votes. and there are people making noise about withholding their votes from him, republicans on the floor, if mccarthy won't

give them certain kinds of things. what those things look like in the end, we don't know. that's just to get the job that. doesn't even get into what it will take to get them to govern. so, it is going to be -- i mean, look. in a complex, crisis situation, this is a chance where you can look like a genius or look up on this time as the most miserable of your life. we will see what one -- >> i was working in the house in 2015 for the freedom caucus when they first used the motion to vacate to basically threatened john boehner speakership it. didn't ultimately work in that he didn't leave office then. he ended up resigning months later and that ended up putting pressure on him. and then paul ryan, the dream for republicans to be speaker, lived in constant fear of his right flank and ultimately resigned. i think kevin will squeak through and gets the speakership but that's not even a foregone conclusion. but i predict it will be the shortest speakership in recent history because of the pressure from his right flank. >> look at what he has done to get the speakership -- the deal with the devil.

after january 6th, with january 6th, he goes on the floor, he criticizes donald trump and then, in short order, he is at mar-a-lago doing the thumbs up picture with him. -- speaker of the house. and it was a way to protect himself from his right flank. meantime, the right flank now is saying, oh, we don't like you so much. the majority is as large -- if they get the majority -- will not be as large as he thought it would be. maybe it will be a few seats, if that, and we will see. and he is going to be in constant turmoil if he gets the job. they are saying they don't want him to get the job. it's just going to be a mess. >> listen, i think it's going to be tough getting there. i think, once he is there that the house members are so eager to conduct oversight. they have full plates of things to do. i think they will be able to manage through that. that will keep things going. you are going to have tough fights on the debt ceiling. smart of things, which i think, will be tricky for them to negotiate. but i don't think -- let's assume they get the majority first. we are not there yet.

we are still a ways there. but i -- going to go a lot more smoothly than people think. >> we have manu raju. let's check in with manu raju. what are you hearing? >> the hard right faction of the house republican conference wants to extract some leverage. in fact, one member said tonight -- bob good, he's a virginia republican -- he indicated tonight that they want to put up a challenger to kevin mccarthy because, not necessarily because they think that that challenger will win. but they want to demonstrate that kevin mccarthy does not have 218 votes in the full house. and as a result, they will have to be some deals cut to get a whole wide range of concessions about, essentially, giving them more power over the speakership, assuming that mccarthy would have agreed to these changes. they essentially would have been able to push him out of office if they did not like something that he has done. among the wide range of other measures to make themselves more powerful and weaken the power of the leadership -- something that the leadership

very likely will resist, mccarthy has rejected a number of those suggestions. now mccarthy also has ended the conversation, we have learned, with president biden himself, just yesterday, they had a brief discussion, a short discussion. and joe biden, earlier tonight, revealed some details about the short talk. listen. i said if you win the majority, congratulations so far. >> so biden is saying that he congratulated mccarthy if he were to have won the can majority not conceding at the mccarthy will in fact be in the majority because we have not called out yet either. but these two men indeed if the republicans are in the majority, will have to work together. they don't have much of a working relationship together,

in fact they have very little interaction between the two of them over the last two years. as we have seen, the republican new speaker facing a president from the opposite party, that can be a very adversarial relationship of we've seen pelosi versus trump. or obama versus boehner. we'll see how that relationship works out as well. >> matter as you thank you so much. scott what is the relationship if mccarthy will agreed to these demands? who's in charge? >> well, i think what would happen again through there and through some of these wars and worked on capitol hill as well. they go to a conference meeting, the conference will decide who the leaders are, come out of the. but then you go to the house floor and there's a fault of the whole house and of representatives. so if members of your own party -- let's say had 222, needs to 18.

i'm not moderately good enough but it just takes a few of them to withhold their votes. and if you don't have the support, and you are not the speaker. so in theory, you have this worked out in advance, but with margins like this an unpredictable characters like this, it's a little bit of a chaotic moment. >> here's the challenge. i said it be the shortest speakership in time. this could be the shortest majority as well. if they put in pushing to the right and pushing to the right in order to keep our, they're gonna make it more difficult for those swing district members to get elected in two years. >> coming up republican candidate social hearse walkers getting some high power help to get through in georgia. brian kemp that's. next even when you're not working. a plan that includes all your accounts so you can enjoy whatever comes next. that's the planning effect. from fidelity.

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senate candidates in georgia

are gearing up for the december runoff, and republican herschel walker is getting help from someone who knows the ropes there pretty well. governor brian kemp. thank you so much for coming back to the table david chalian. it's so interesting about camp helping. it makes sense i guess if the balance of power potentially is at stake in georgia. and he has a movement republican a good republican but it's not like he was working so hard to help him leading up to the election. >> listen, first of all it's a dream come true for herschel walker because this is the most experienced ground operation political operation in the state that just had a very substantial victory. so what politician would not

want to inherit that entire infrastructure with this four-week extended race now? but the herschel walker campaign is not paying for this right? >> no they're benefiting. >> they're gonna benefit from a perhaps. but this is all designed by mitch mcconnell and the super pac a guy, who runs mcconnells super pac as a way to try to put their best foot forward. now listen, i think there are two runoffs. there is one where it does not matter for senate control because arizona and nevada have already decided it, and then there's an entirely different race. >> what's also interesting is that what is not gonna happen in georgia, that republicans are not going to be able to internalize any lessons if any from what happened on tuesday for the georgia runoff because they're stuck with the trump candidate. they cannot do anything about herschel walker who is trump endorsed, trump like in all kinds of ways when it comes to

his personal life, when it comes to his politics. and they have to sell that. and brian kemp ran against trump, has to sell a herschel walker. and mitch mcconnell who would love to get away from donald trump now has to sell a herschel walker. if you are a republican that's the deck you've been dealt and you have to play with it, but it's not really the best-case scenario because they can't move away from something that caused a lot of winnable losses. >> it comes down to that really being the difference between republicans getting control or not they will be selling that. >> i do think trump and actually really want to dig into what david was saying in a second. first they are gonna be dealing with if this is a runoff for senate control. if arizona and nevada split, then donald trump is gonna potentially announcing a

presidential bid as this runoff is unfolding. now it's a four-week time slot. he don't want to be involved, god forbid ron desantis goes to campaign for herschel walker. is trump gonna let him do that without showing up in georgia himself? people in georgia gonna be saying no, stay away. but you can't control donald trump. i just think those dynamics, and it's totally different that in the event that senate control is not on the line. the data, i was turning this over in my head. i don't know if it makes it more less likely whether we have a senator walker? >> i don't know that we know who's going to win, but certainly this is a race about who controls the senate, the republicans they have to make is that this seat is a check on joe biden and that is gonna be really important to bring out their base. what they have to do in georgia is basically, have to find a

bunch of new voters or convince a lot of republican-leaning voters who actively chose not to vote for herschel walker but did vote for brian kemp to come out again in another race and cast a ballot for herschel walker. that's really hard to do. so they can either do that or they can find some brand-new voters to make up that difference. the only way to do it i think the best way to do it is to say this is a seat that is a check on joe biden. >> i think yes that's absolutely a good argument to make. i think your point is absolutely the right one that they know they have an uphill climb for all of the reasons you just outlined. figuring out how to motivate people. honestly, herschel walker's best chance to be a senator was to have brian kemp pulled over the first one. >> this is not for senate control, what is that drop off going to be and we just saw the initial turnout on tuesday? so significant.

does that go back more to the reddish purplish nature of the state. >> remember, the drop off as the reason they lost the seat to two years ago in the first place. there is a drop off in the general auction to the runoff. >> thanks so much everybody. thank you for watching our election coverage continues next. stay with cnn for all of the latest results. certified from headlamp to tailpipe. that's certified head turns. and it's all backed by our unlimited mileage warranty. that means unlimited peace of mind. mercedes-benz certified pre-owned. translation: the mercedes of your dreams is closer than you think. vo: the next time you fill up the tank, remember why it costs so much. because the biggest oil companies decided they need to profit even more. they make record profits... even as americans struggle to pay the bills. call it price gouging.

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