continued. what a night it is right now with a new decision in arizona and new tightening going on right now in nevada. arizona senator mark kelly pulling off a rid kill win for the democrats defeating his republican opponent, the trump endorsed election denier blake masters and in nevada, the senate race has narrowed again after that new round of results that have just come in. democratic incumbent kathryn cortez masto. take a look at the ballots of power in the senate this hour. democrats and republicans now have won 49 seats each but democrats are closer than republicans to winning senate control. they need only one more seat to lock up a majority because vice president kamala harris has the tie breaking vote in the senate. there is also a very exciting fight playing out right now for control of the u.s. house of representatives and we can now

make a new projection. cnn projects that democrat greg stanton is reelected to a third term in arizona in a district biden carried by ten points. look at the balance of power in the house where it stands now. democrats inching up to 203 seats, republicans holding at 211 seats. that's seven short of the 218 seats needed to win control of the house but democrats continuing to make gains tonight. let's go to john king who is taking a closer look at the battle in the house of representatives that's unfolding right now. so john, tell us a little bit more. >> so, just wow. i keep trying to find a better word for it but wow. this is not the math republican expected and actually, let's be honest. it's not the math many democrats would tell you they expected to have as we are friday now in an election week we started counting tuesday night. as you mentioned, called races, republicans have 211, they are seven shy of a 218 seat

majority. democrats have a steeper hill to climb, they need 15 more wins to get to 218. the simple math says republicans are closer knocking at the door of a speaker ship. let's look at republicans clearly have the edge three. a three-seat majority. not what they wanted and expected but majority is still majority. what will happen from here? let's go back to this. we leave these numbers up. this is the cement. the cement dried on these races. 211 republicans. 203. republican haves a cleaner path. we need to emphasize that. republicans have an easier path to 218 and this but is getting more interesting. let's walk through. can democrats get there? well, let's look at this. number one two likely. republicans have actually conceded in the races but some of these happened before. concessions and votes come in and get clipped. we're being conservative here. you're at 203.

pretty certain those will end up there. that gets you to 205. right? we'll finish them when we get there. what's the next step? these are races where democrats are ahead. you see them filling in in green. democrats are ahead. we haven't called them yet. you're at 205. right? does seven get you? 212. that gets you six away from 218. now can the democrats get more than that? well, let's go back and look at the map. number one there we go here. what is your third step? this is quite probable. you talk about this being a steep hill for the democrats but rank choice voting in alaska, democratic house income bent, in maine, they are both leading. they're both close to 50%. they may not get there. second ex thirand third choice candidates. a lot of democrats tell you likely. where does that get you, two, one, four. wow. and so then the question is how do you get there? can you get there? well, we've identified these races. i'll show you a couple others in a minute.

we've identified these races. we will call them a reach because they're a reach. this is not easy for democrats by any means. this district here. lauren bobert's district is 1122 votes ahead. she was trailing yesterday. it's not done yet. it's not done yet. it's possible democrats can get the seat. you come back out. more seats in california. just want to bring up one of them. i want to show you this because we talked about it before. i want to show you david, one of the house impeachment ten, house republicans that voted to impeach donald trump. his lead was above 3,000. about 3700 earlier today. more ballots have come in. the democrat is closing the gap. still only about 40% of the estimated vote counted. a, this will take awhile and b, the democrat is still in play. it's a reach. it's a reach. there is no guarantee. pull back out. we have these other races, as well where democrats again -- anything in the pink, purple the republican is leading and it would be a reach for the democrats but there are four right on this map, wolf, that if

the democrats luck isn't the right word but if the map turns in their favor, i want to come back out because they're not the only ones. we put that on the list because democrats were closing in or in districts we thought okay, it's a possibility in a strange year, let's come out to the state of california, right? let me look at the uncalled races. the uncalled races are the ones that highlight on your screen. let's look at this race right here. that's not on the list. that's not on the reaches i showed you. republicans 84 votes ahead. republicans 84 votes ahead. come down here and this is the one i showed you on the list and he's 2900 votes if you round that up a bit but come here. there is another one there. come here and look at this one. much more likely than republicans keep this seat here. you see 10,000 vote lead there. you can look at the map nationally to uncalled races and again, the likelihood is that republicans get -- those are ahead races. look at the called races.

a statistician would tell you republicans get to 218 and it will also tell you they're not likely to get much pass 218. if you're in vegas making a bet, republicans don't get the house and if they do, it's narrow. it's a mathematically possibility maybe, just maybe they can keep the house. >> to get your perspective, you and i covered politics for a long time. have you ever covered anything similar to now? >> no, it will take us a long time. i said weeks ago this is the most complicated midterm of the 38 years. you have the dobbs decision. you have inflation. you have the president's approval rating. republicans trying to use the crime issue, the return of trump in the campaign in many ways. there is a lot stirring in the pot and i think it's going to take anyone that tells you today they already know what happened here. there are basic assessments you can make. it will take a long time to sort this out. one thing is true, almost three

years of the pandemic followed by inflation. the american people are anxious, nervous, exhausted. when you're exhausted and you feel queazy, you don't order the spicy food, you get the meat and potatoes and a lot of meat and potatoes are winning and spicy republicans are winning. >> during the republican primary, some democrats were going out and campaigning for republicans who were trump supporters and election deniers and all of that thinking they would be more vulnerable in a general election against the democrat. with whindsight knowing what we know now, was that smart? >> the democrats spent money against the republican inc incumbent, where democrats spent money to get the trump republican to try to help. again, that will be one of the things studied for months some of the races the money went in,

the maryland's race for example. most republicans will tell you that guy was going to win anyway. a lot to study. we know the historical average is a president, democrat or republican, barack obama lost 63. donald trump lost 40. if you go back to ronald reagan, the average is 30. if you start the clock at bill clinton, you think politics are more polarized don't go back to region, it's 37. the democrats are not going to lose 37 seats. here is where they are now. they're at -- whoops, how did that happen? democrats now at 220. let me block this off. democrats went into the election at 2020. here is where they are in called races. 203. republicans 2011. someone, which one party will have a narrow majority. it is still possible democrats hold on the probability is republicans have a very narrow majority. wolf, there was a time they were talking 60 seats and then 40 and then 30. that's not happening.

that's simply not happening. the president will defy expectations. the democrats will defy history if you will. his life is still miserable if republicans control the house and some would argue, manu would make this point, his life will be more miserable in someways if the republican majority is smaller because it will get so much more complicated to do anything but the democrats will take that. they want to keep that number as small as possible and doing a pretty good job at it. >> excellent point. thanks very much for all of that. let's go back to dana right now, dana? >> excuse me. excuse me. it's late at night. >> it is getting late at night. we have manu raju -- >> thank you. >> sitting here to tell us more about what john was suggesting. >> yeah, look, i think just take a step back here, what a divided time we are here in america. we are coming off a -- the longest period of a 50/50 senate in american history. we are -- it's a possibility we could be at another 50/50 senate for the next two years. it's a real possibility. you show -- the breakdown in the

house right now, democrats have a hand full of seat majority right now in the house. we could see the republicans with almost a similar majority on their side. this country is divided right now and also, it shows parties that go too far with the majorities or the rhetoric and the like, they'll get brushed back by the american public that clearly does not want to see them. >> you know, one thing i've heard from sources that i've been talking to over the past couple days who represent both parties, republicans and democrats, it's kind of a wonky phrase. it's the median voter, right? it's the person in the middle who sometimes thinks well, democrats have this mostly right and i'm going to vote with them this time and who sometimes thinks actually, you know what, i want to change and vote for the other party. there is a lot of school of thought and truth politics are much more polarized than ever but a lot of our politics have been dictated by the extremes and i think this election really

shows and certainly a lot of the smartest people who think about this stuff all the time who are talking to me about this are saying that actually those people in the middle, they still exist. they still want something in the middle. >> and they're showing up. first of all, thank you for the save. i just lost my voice. >> you're welcome. >> welcome to the table, david. what are your thoughts? >> the point that kasie is making is super interesting. it's just that we live in a time where you were talking about the extremes especially on the right right now and sort of the magna fa case of the republican party. it's producing nominees, right, that that median voter is rejecting and we've now seen that in three elections cycles, '18, '20 and now '22. where we thought -- where i think a lot of people thought the over lay of inflation and the economy and the president's standing would somehow not make

that reality of that media voter and the republican party come into play and i think what these results are showing is that's not the case. there is a still a reality of moving from a primary to a general election and having to deal with that. >> to under score the under performance we're seeing here because we don't know where this is going to end up, it's clear republicans have dramatically under performed. republicans had hadan advantage battle ground so to speak redistricting states in ways that were generally favorable to them creating an extraordinary narrow band of districts that could be described as battle grounds and even still here we are still counting down to see who -- which party it is going to be that will control the house in an environment that is deeply favor to believe

republicans and as david and kasie pointed out, their primary process is producing extreme nominees. and they are not willing to acknowledge that and address that problem. maybe they can't. it's not a top down problem. it a bottom up problem. republican voters are choosing largely extreme nominees and when those candidates get to the general election, this extraordinarily favorable environment, they're struggling. >> i'm reminded of a piece dana did in this cycle where you went down to texas in the room of the guy drawing the lines on the computer screen and i remember when you were reporting this out and we all were having conversations obviously, this notion that both parties were less interested in drawing competitive districts they thought they could win and much more interested in drawing very

safe -- >> status quo. >> the person sitting in your seat, the mara lyland democrat t won, he had a competitive race because of redistricting. >> also because a judge created that more. >> they wrote a map very gary bandered. >> it happened in new york, too. that might hand the whole thing to republicans. >> okay. it has been an incredibly exciting night so far. the balance of power in the senate clearer after mark kelly's win in arizona. now all eyes on the closely watched nevada senate race, which could determine control. much more on that next. stay with us.

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all eyes on nevada this hour as the outcome of the senate race there could determine which party controls the chamber. democrats and republicans tied at 49 seats each. scott jennings, if you're mitch mcconnell watching what is going on in nevada, what are you thinking now and doing? >> you're hoping. right now probably asleep. [ laughter ] it's late. you know, you're hoping because if you've somehow pull a rabbit out of a hat in henevada here i keeps georgia relevant and gives you a chance to pull the senate majority. if you don't win it, it's obviously a huge disappointment because you would imagine at some point although mcconnell was cautious in predictions. everybody was screaming able the red wave and he was always very muted on that. but, you know, in a world where joe biden's approval rating is

in the mid 40s where three quarters of the country thinks we're on the wrong track and upset and anxious about the economy, you would have thought in a year like there you could have found one senate seat to flip and they -- if this nevada thing goes against republicans, they just would not have found it and it would be a disappointment. just like the house republicans are facing disappointment over in the having -- if they hold the house -- >> but this seat was the one that republicans and democrats thought was absolutely the most likely to go. they thought that because of the nature of the state is much more sensitive to economic issues. they thought so because the harry reid passed away. he was the ramrod of the democratic organization there. they've always had close elections. he was the guy that pulled it all together. there are a lot of reasons and adam laxalt had been the attorney general. he's a famous name.

he'd run for governor. he was not someone that sprung from donald trump's brow. so, you know. >> you know, biden's disapproval was 54% in the state. laxalt was endorsed by trump and desantis. okay? so brought them together. cortez masto we seen in the exit polls now was trying to attract latino voters. she did about 2-1. as david was saying, he had the pedigree, political pedigree wasn't an unknown. he's an election denier because that is one of the reasons of course donald trump went with him so it's clearly considered really gettable. and it's closer than, you know, i think republicans thought that it was going to be. >> laxalt is one of those people when we heard mcconnell talk about candidate quality, laxalt was one of the poster childs of that because as gloria said, he

was an election denier and didn't see anything wrong with january 6th but wise in the campaign to make this about economic issues. he continued to point to cortez masto and her support of biden's policies that led to the economic turmoil that many people in nevada face. this is also an interesting -- another example of split ticketing because already in nevada. we had a republican win the governor, lieutenant governor and state comptroller and this is getting close to the wire. it could possibly be another example where people decided they wanteded to vote republican -- >> point out, this race is not over. >> not over. >> i do think, though, again, roe plays a role in this. he is not a pro-choice candidate. he is very anti lgbtq and i also think, you know, i'm an organizer at heart and the culinariry union showed up and showed out in nevada and you know if you've run a race in nevada newknocking on doors mats

and they did that and that is actually helping to close the gap for cortez. >> one thing we haven't mentioned enough. i think the january 6th hearings mattered in the races. this is a referendum. we haven't called the race yet obviously but on election denial and i think that tens of millions of people tuned into those and saw it was a conn and it was a lie. even people with a pedigree like adam laxalt with the statement name that matters in the state, they're saying we're threw with people lying. >> which is fascinating because we talked about this earlier, when those hearings started, there's a lot of people saying look, there is not anything new, what's the point of these things? but just the constant drum beat of it and the sort of laser focus of it, it -- i mean, they were laying out odds. >> to that median voter kasie hunt was talking about, they absolutely had an impact. >> it was -- i'm sorry. it was part of that stew of kind

of extremism that we were talking about earlier and let me just say, it isn't just what happened during the summer and late spring and early summer but also the way the race closed. i wonder how much that attack on paul pelosi entered into this. i wonder how much the reemerging of donald trump in the last week played into this? i think that this -- you know, added to the burden of -- you know, for all republican candidates. >> the mockery of the attack on paul -- >> yes, exactly. exactly. yes. >> looking at the exit polls, though, that we've shown, it's kind of split at this point between these two candidates, 48% for cortez masto and 45% for laxalt. the economy in the state of nevada has really been hit. you know, gas prices still over $5 a gallon.

and so the tourist industry, et cetera, et cetera. so i think we see why given everything else this race remains so tight. >> in a race this close, everything causes you to win and everything will cause you to lose. >> right. >> with such small numbers. on our exit polling, 75% of respondents said the economy was not good or poor and cortez masto pulled 36% of those. the people that thought it was excellent or good she got 92%. the people upset in the state where economy was really ravaged during covid still went with the democrat does speak to the idea that other issues crept in there. we thought it would be an economic election and inflation election but obviously, there were people mad about that but then opted for other things. >> coming up, senate balance of power coming sharper in focus after a dramatic night. we'll continue to track the vote night as numbers come in and donald trump unleashed a fleury of attacks on social media given

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battle for control of the senate in full swing tonight with each party holding 49 seats. nevada, georgia will term the outcome. meanwhile, many republicans have been evaluating how much former president trump is helping or hurting his party in light of remarks but republican virginia governor glenn youngkin trump writing young ken, that's an interesting take, sounds chinese, doesn't it, in virginia count have won without me. i endorsed him. did a very big trump rally for

him tby telephone, got maga to vote for him-o dash or couldn't have come close to winning. alicia? >> i don't know that sounds racist. it is racist. i'm not sure what he's trying to get at with the young ken name there. it's not true. glenn youngkin got elected because he ran a smart race. he met the needs of the state and kids being kept out of the close rooms in covid and ran on an education choice platform. trump was not a factor. it was the model republicans said going forward candidates want to run away from trump but win in purple states you need to do. he can't let anyone get credit. >> by the way, he won. >> right. >> he's in office. right. and trump is not. it's remarkable. >> do you think because he apologized to nancy pelosi. he apologized to nancy pelosi

after he made an ill considered remark, you know, and he wrote her a hand written note. am i -- >> he sees that as weak. he didn't like the fact he did it. >> everybody is talking about youngkin running for president. >> that's part of it. >> clearly, he's one of the other people listed on the potentials to run in 2024 but glenn youngkin was smart not to take the bait. any republican who has been against trump realizes don't take the bait or you're going to be served up as a fillet on the dinner table in short order. they talk with youngkin's campaign about this. they said look, donald trump is becoming more and more irrelevant, just let him go. where trump is running into a big mistake, he's going to label everyone. he did with desantis called him des that name.

people in the crowd booed. if he wants to burn the down the house, that's fine but he'll hurt the grass roots base. >> on the strategy of ignoring it, that's also what desantis is doing. there is some reporting today that desantis has just decided to ignore it. i think that's -- you can comment on this maybe -- but that might be what drives him the craziest. mcconnell ignored. he made racist attacks against mitch mcconnell's wife secretary chow around ethe idea of soundig chinese. this idea of ignoring it -- >> i think that disturbs him most of all. the thing on youngkin that is interesting is he had the advantage of a system in virginia that didn't really -- that wasn't really a primary. he didn't really need trump's endorsement and that is the big problem for the republican party because you need his endorsement to win or at least you've had to have his endorsement to win in the past and then it's really hard in a general election to get that, frankly, that stench off of you with voters that don't like trump. >> can i mention by the way,

yo women have been ahead of the curve on the republican party doing so. >> i mean, is anybody surprised by this tweet? trump is racist. he pouts when he loses. heantrums. he's the one of the most consistent politicians in a negative way i've seen. i'm not surprised by this. he is showing us who he is and he's not going to change. >> this isn't the first time. this is deja vu for me in 2016. when he ran in 2016 he had a nickname for everybody, low energy bush or whatever. he's replaying that. but he seems to be the only one that doesn't realize that people don't want to hear that anymore. i mean, maybe some people in his base do who go to his rallies. >> you hear ted cruz who is -- went over to campaign for walker saying, you know, of course trump is welcome. it would be great.

anybody is welcome here. they're not -- everyone is not -- >> that's part of the strategy with the walker campaign speaking with his folks. look, they need trump's base and the support. they're not really going to turn away anyone. the key with them, you don't want to put him in atlanta. you want to put him in more the areas of the state where he does have support. but they're really going to rely on in the walker race if it does go down to georgia which it appears it may be hugely instrumental, they will rely on more people like youngkin, like desantis and people that are more of the rational wing of the republican party. the new face of the republican party. >> in that rant of his, trump talked about, you know, doing this telephonic rally for him. the reason it was telephonic they didn't want him anywhere near the state and made that very, very clear to him and the people around him made it clear. he had that because he didn't want the impression to be that he wasn't invited into the

state. so he pulled it together. i think bannon was involved in that. >> if i could issue one warning, though, the problem with donald trump, we know his character at this point is if he loses, he will burn the entire party down with him. that's what we have to look forward to. >> he's done that. >> he's continuing to do it. that is part of what forces the same wing of the party to keep going back to him. my advice would be let him burn it down and let's rise from the ashes. >> here is what i'll say about georgia and trump going. be careful. there are a lot of black voters in rural georgia and that was the approach in 2020 is that going to counties where people often don't go and if trump goes there, he activates a base in the democratic georgia party that i think could backfire. >> democrats defied expectations, historical precedent and we'll take a closer look why has this election cycle been different than midterms past. "election night in america" continues.

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right after it was overturned, the democrats thought they suddenly had a galvanizing issue and then the economy seemed to supersede it but abortion was always there as an energizer. >> yeah. >> for democrats and indepen debts. >> absolutely. i think there is a temptation to view what happened over the summer after the supreme court decision is something of a mirage but i was talking to a republican working in a bunch of races across the country that said we were getting killed over the summer after the dobbs decision. it was a very, very real change for republican candidates. the question was how long would it last? i think even a lot of democrats didn't really know but i think what we're seeing this week is that in a lot of places, not everywhere on the map but in a lot of places, it was that extra edge, the democrats needed to hold on to some seats that were really at risk and to get voters out and also, these ballot initiatives. there were several on the

ballot. abortion rights won in pretty much every single one of them. that's really remarkable i think for the record on where the country stands on this issue of abortion. >> you know, i had a conversation. i went back and read my notes from it this week back in february with a white house advisor -- >> i remember these. >> about the abortion issue and about whether or not the court was going to overturn dobbs and i remember the white house having this mentality of this is going to be the thing for us. if the court does do this, this is going to change this whole midterm landscape but also raise the issue of it will come out in june and we have to go to november. so there was this open question there. i think what is so fascinating about this week and we said it's unlike any before. in 2020 the house was close also. there was a presidential contest going on so we didn't quite focus on it as much but this is the second very close house election in a row now. i think what is intriguing to

look at, the tale of two states, if republicans win this majority, it will be largely like new york and for many districts there that flip from blue to red will hand them the majority. the countervailing pressure is a place like pennsylvania four competitive districts that democrats were able to maintain. and so you're like well what is different? is different when it comes to the abortion issue? in new york, kathy hochul is governor and people didn't feel quite as threatened of the o outcome versus doug mastriano and much more of an edge for voters in a state like pennsylvania even though that's more purple and new york is more -- >> i also think that the pendulum swings both ways in american politics and when voters view one party one party going too far, they tend to reign them in from time to time. so even though people -- the over supporting roe v. wade is overwhelmingly supported by the

american public, the idea t that -- >> that roe. >> yeah, that the idea that roe could go away essentially galvanized democratic voters, the question for republicans in the runup in the last few weeks of the campaign season is they have no answer for this issue. they were getting absolutely hammered and they decided to completely ignore it. >> yes, that's so true. >> completely believe -- >> on the economy. >> just going to be the economy and didn't want to get into the issue and cost them. >> we spent a lot of time talking about what we've seen over the past couple days in terms of extremes, right? voters rejecting extreme candidates. i actually think that plays to your point a very important role in the abortion issue, as well because the reality is that the decision, the dobbs decision was the most extreme version of that decision that could -- that they

could have made. it was the farthest they could have gone to change our abortion laws and frankly, it was out of step with the majority of the country. right? like yes, there are pluralities of americans that believe there should be some restrictions on abortion at some point in pregnancy as long as, you know, there are reasonable exceptions for rape and incest and the mot. that's not what the court and states did and republicans lost sight of that. they figured it out at the end of the campaign. they started talking about and trying to pin down democrats on what restrictions they would support and they started trying to argue democrats support abortion without any restriction because they realized that they were now the ones on the extreme end of the issue. >> but they never talked about what they would do as a party on this issue. they were just -- >> except always -- except by putting on the table a national

abortion ban, which i think actually -- >> which badly divided the party. >> abortion is very much a national issue. >> i was asking republican strategists who worked on senate campaigns about like what happened? and the answer was we lost independent when is we thought we'd win them and massively under performed with them and the reason largely some of it was trump but also abortion. >> yeah. >> and it's pretty clear now. >> now we know where americans stand on this issue in a way we haven't known even since roe became the law of the land. i think that's going to have huge i wermplications for this country especially in the next election, a presidential election you could have people opposed to abortion on the republican side. >> coming up, much more vote counting ahead in the remaining uncalled critical races. we'll take a closer look at what we can expect to learn in the days ahead. days ahead. stay with us. our election coverage continues right after a quick break.

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nevada is in the spotlight tonight as that state's senate contest could potentially determine whether democrats or republicans control the chamber. david chalian, 821 votes at this hour, but it has been a very -- a very dramatic night. >> it certainly has been, dana. now, i wish i had a time stamp to put on this graphic, everyone. this is where we started the

evening. right before we came on the air adam laxalt had an 8,960 vote lead at that time. there were 90,000 ballots left to count in nevada. and you can see here catherine cortez masto needed 52 to 54% of them. approximately 55,000 votes are out, and when those 40,000 votes came in, wow did things close. now adam laxalt's lead only 820 votes and cortez masto only needs about 50 to 51%. her lead number went down because she made up so much ground and adam laxment needs 49 to 50% of this outstanding 55,000 to win this race. >> and david, there are still tens of thousands of votes that could sway this election in

either direction. briana keeler with how many votes are left. >> as chalian was just illustrating there we still don't know who nevada's next senator will be. let's look at clark county home to las vegas, of course, and 70% of the population of the state. they have just over 23,000 mail-in ballots left to count. mail-in votes in clark county they have been trending democratic and new votes we got there tonight did stick with that trend. i should note not included in the remaining mail-in ballots there are about 15,000 additional ballots that could eventually be counted including 10,000, meaning the voter there made an error, they need to correct it in order for their vote to be counted. usually not a lot of ballots get cured but we do know the las vegas culinary union which is huge there needs to alert its members. so a higher number than past elections could come in by the monday deadline. there are also 5,555 provisional

ballots cast in person on election day that still need to be validated. so onto washo county, home to reno. we're still waiting on 12,000 mail-in votes there. that's expected by tomorrow. the county also has just under 2,000 provisional ballots that still need to be verified. votes reported tonight in washo county have also continued to trend democratic. so between these 12,000 ballots left there in washo and the 23,000 left in clark county it is possible that the democratic candidate or incumbent senator catherine cortez masto could take the lead. >> so incredible. brie, thank you so much. thank you so much for watching. our election coverage continues next. stay with cnn for all of the latest results. if you're turning 65 soon

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hello and a warm welcome to all of our viewers watching across the united states, live from studio 7 at the cnn center in atlanta. i'm michael holmes. appreciate your company. well, there has been as we've been seeing dramatic changes in vote results over the past several hours in two key senate races in nevada and arizona, both favoring the democratic candidates. cnn now projects incumbent democrat mark kelly will win re-election