tv Smerconish CNN November 12, 2022 6:00am-7:00am PST
6:00 am
6:01 am
this is a scam and voter fraud. they stole the election from blake masters. do election over again. excuses like this, they have finally run out. trump's welcome with the conservative media, jeopardizing any attempt for him to run again. of course, i first thought that trump was finished when he descended that escalator at trump tower and told us that mexico was sending us its rapists. yes, i doubled down when he disrespected john mccain by saying he liked people who weren't captured. and i was convinced it was the end of his campaign when we heard the grab 'em by the p tape. i'm nothing if not consistent. this time it feels different. the conservative media has now turned against donald trump by recognizing that he has cost the gop the last several election cycles by putting his thumb on the scale, favoring those who showed fealty to trump at the risk of electability. particularly galling to many was his attempt to emasculate
6:02 am
potential republican rival ron desantis during a campaign, just days before desantis recorded the largest gubernatorial victory seen in florida since 1868. and the pushback has been intense. look at t"the new york post," dn had a great fall. can all the gop's men put the party together again? this wasn't the liberal "washington post." it was t"the new york post," owned by murdoch, who owns fox. inside was a piece titled "here's how donald trump sabotaged the republican midterms." another conserve tifrative jour, noonan, talked about inferior candidates being robbed of a clean shot at the house and the senate. as it was put, in almost every
6:03 am
place a trump sster lost, there was a regular republican that should have been the party's nominee, a nominee who could have taken advantage of the uniquely horrible facts and fundament tals confronting candidates in 2022. "the wall street journal" editorial board similarly blunt. trump is the republican party's biggest loser. he has now 23flopped in 2018, 2020, and 2022. the "journal,," too, gave specific examples, including new hampshire, blake masters in arizona, mehmet oz and doug mastriano in pennsylvania. then there was the conservative "washington examiner," which went with this headline, "voters show they want sanity and don't want trump." the paper pointed out that trump's presumptive 2024 rival, florida governor desantis, in his re-election victory speech, claimed, quote, florida was with refuge of sanity when the world went mad. the "examiner" added, florida
6:04 am
voters love this message, and whereas then president donald trump barely beat joe biden by three points in the state only two years ago, desantis crushed his opponent by 20 points on election day. other republican governors who brought order instead of chaos also won. ohio, governor mike dewine ran away with a 25-point victory. g governor siununu took new hampshire. the "examiner" concluded the midterm elections made it crystal clear voters want to move past the chaos and dishonor of the 45th president. over on fox news, mark thiessen, former speechwriter for george w. bush, said this. >> we have the worst inflation in four decades, the worst collapse in real wages in 40 years, can worst crime wave since the 1990s, the worst border crisis in u.s. history. we have joe biden, who is the least popular president since harry truman, since presidential
6:05 am
polling happened, and there wasn't a red wave. that is a searing indictment of the republican party. that is a searing indictment of the message we have been sending to the voters. they looked at all of that and said, looked at the republican alternative and said, no thanks. >> trump's response was to take to truth social and then, about the media, and to portray desantis as an ingrade. the fox and no longer great "new york post" bring back a former editor, all in for governor who is average and didn't have to close up his state but did, unlike other republican governors, whose overall numbers for a republican were just average. trump was offended that, when desantis was asked by the media if he would run if trump runs, desantis demured. trump responded, well, in terms of loyalty and class, that's really not the right answer.
6:06 am
then for good measure, another unprovoked attack on a potential rival, this time virginia gov governor, said, young kin. sounds chinese, doesn't it? it's hard to keep up. almost lost in the aftermath of the midterm was that trump's vice president, mike pence, is finally finding his voice with regard to his former running mate. pence never testified before the january 6th committee, of course, but now in publishing a book, he is providing a tiktok of what went on before, during and after january 6th. an excerpt was published in mur murdoch's "wall street journal" under the headline, "my last days with donald trump." pence recounts the browbeating he sustained by trump who wanted him to disregard his constitutional duties. trump chided him, you're too honest. and told him, you'll go down as a wimp.
6:07 am
powerful stuff, which, by the way, would have made more of an impact under oath instead of in a memoir. of course, not all are convinced that all of this conservative closing of ranks against trump will thwart his attempt as a comeback. this headline accompanied media columnist's wimple's piece in "the washington post," "wake me when hannity turns on trump. "good point. trump has yet to lose the fox primetime lineup, remaining the epicenter of gop talking points and leadership. and now, as votes are still being tallied from the midterm, another high drama trump moment looms. tuesday night, he's promised a special announce. . will he formally announce candidacy? we don't know. even kayleigh mcenany said he should delay the announcement not to conflict with the december 6th run-off in december. but in the face of the o
6:08 am
opposition he's drawn because of his poor picks and would be rivals, to trump, it'd seem like weakness and capitulation. yesterday, a siris xm caller of mine, don of illinois, invoked winston churchill. 80 years ago this week, churchill said this, now, this is not the end. it is not even the beginning of the end. but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. to exactly what, we're going to soon find out. it all leads me to today's poll question at smerconish.com. can donald trump win the gop nomination without the support of the conservative media? joining me now is selena zito of the "washington examiner" and ""new york post,"" it's, how our nation is coming together and
6:09 am
falling apart. our piece titled "trump voters where done," with the ex-president. he needs to disappear. selena, you have written that, up until now, trump voters were willing to overlook his crassness because of his policies. well, what is it that has now changed? >> first of all, thanks for having me on. in 2016, as you well know, i took a lot of heat for saying, hey, you guys, i think trump is going to win. it wasn't my opinion, it was based on reporting. this "new york post" piece is based on reporting, it's not my opinion. in the final days of the election this year, this past week, feels like a year ago, voters, when they started to hear him talking about desantis as desanctimonious, i saw a pause in voters. i wasn't sure if it would impact the election.
6:10 am
however, it was at the last minute, so it was hard to get in there and granulely understand. however, i think the reason why this is the moment -- to get back to your question, the reason why i think this is the moment that things might start to break apart, not of the conservative populous movement. i would say that is bigger and stronger than it ever was. however, i think trump's problem now is because there is a vacuum that is being filled. on january 6th, there wasn't a vac vacuum. there was no one else on the landscape. voters reluctantly came back after january 6th. but now, after everything that ron desantis accomplished, and also glenn youngkin, and i think there's going to be a number of other conservative leaders, they'll let you know if they're running for president, nikki
6:11 am
haley to scott to mike pompeo, i think this is -- >> but, selena, that's what is in trump's wheelhouse. that's what he wants. there's a lot of ego that you've just identified, and if they all get in and he holds firm, i don't know, 25%, 27%, 30% of the vote, then he can't be stopped in the nomination. will you speak specifically to what i've identified, this coalescing of conservative media voices now weighing in against him? what do you make of all of that? >> well, i think a vacuum has been filled. right now, that vacuum is ron desantis. he has shown that he can be robust and vigorous in defending the conservative movement and conservative ideals. he has proved that he can build a coalition because that's what you need to win. and, also, he is competent. he has handled things, just disasters, let alone the
6:12 am
pandemic, in a competent, clear-headed way. i think that is what the problem is for donald trump. because voters are saying, look, there's someone else that can do this, and he's not always going off on social media. >> you know that trump's response to this is to say, hey, they were all against me in 2016. when i defeated everyone they put in my path, they then all jumped on board. the same thing will happen again, whether it's "the new york post," "the wall street journal," the murdochs, even if i'm adanbandoned by fox personalities, they'll all come around when i'm the victor. >> i think what donald trump has gotten different now from what he understood in 2016, 2016 was about the people. it was about aspiration. it was about being part of something bigger than himself. since 2020 and through 2022, it's been about him. these voters are -- they've always voted on community.
6:13 am
they've always voted about being together on ideals and on values. when you make the -- your argument about you, you lose that coalition. it starts to break apart. >> selena, it is going to be interesting to see who finally gets in against him. if they all get in, even if a couple of them get in, i think he's got a clear path. but if they can -- if there were a sit-down and they all decided, okay, it's youngkin's turn or desantis' turn in a one-on-one, but i felt the same way in 2016. final question, how are you voting on today's poll question? can he win a nomination without the support of the conservative media? >> yes. oh, trump? >> yes. >> i don't know. i don't know. i don't know the answer to that question. is that one of my options, i don't know? >> no, it is not, selena. we make you weigh in.
6:14 am
go to smerconish.com, and make up your damn mind. thank you, selena. >> thanks. >> selena zito is struggling to the answer to today's poll question, but you heard what it is. can he win without the support of the conservative media? tweet me at smerconish. go to social media, i'll read responses throughout the course of the program. the conservative media may be turning away from trump, but liberal media will never let go of him. your cnn show today is case in point. hey, observer, i don't have it out for the guy. i really don't. but i'd be derelict in my duty if i didn't take note of the fact. look it a this, are you joking? if i didn't take note of the fact of the abandonment in trump, where he has been treated before with open arms, then i wouldn't be doing my job. that's what's changed. i told you at the outset, i have a clean track record. i've been wrong in every other instance, where i thought it was the beginning of the end for him. but the media role in all of this, as parts of my overar chig
6:15 am
belief about what has driven us into a partisan ditch in this country, that remains, i think, in tact, and confirmed. still to come, make sure you're voting at smerconish.com. go vote. still to come, what happened to the red tsunami? were the polls wrong again, or did we just misread them? and imagine this, a campus where no smartphones are allowed. well, that's the actual policy at a small boarding school in the berkshires for both students and teachers. what has it meant for their happiness levels? you might be surprised. ♪ capella university sees education difffferently. our flexpath learning format helps you control the pace and c cost of your master's degree. what's it like shopping on carvana? it's a car buying process that lets you shop tens of thousands of cars 100% online so you can buy, sell oeven trade your car from anywhere it's getting as sn as next day delivery
6:16 am
or picking your new ri up at one of our sleek car vending machines. and it's the comfort of a seven day return policy to make sure it fits your life. because at carvana, we take joy in making every customer well happy. carvana will drive you happy. dove 0% is different. we left aluminum out and put 48 hours freshness and 1 quarter moisturizers... in. dove 0% aluminum deodorant. lasting odor protection that's kind on skin. ♪hit it!♪ ♪it takes two to make a thing go right♪ ♪it takes two to make it outta sight♪ ♪it takes two to make a thing go right♪ ♪it takes two to make it outta sight♪ ♪one, two, get loose now!♪ ♪it takes two to make a- it takes two to make a-♪ ♪it takes two to make a- it takes two to make a-♪ ♪it takes two to make a- it takes two to make a-♪ get double rewards points this fall. book now at bestwestern.com.
6:17 am
♪ ♪ ♪ voltaren. the joy of movement. ♪ dude, what're you doing? i'm protecting my car. that's too much work. weathertech is so much easier... laser-measured floorliners up here, seat protector and cargoliner back there... nice! out here, side window deflectors... and mud flaps... and the bumpstep, to keep the bumper dent-free. cool! it's the best protection for your vehicle, new or pre-owned. great. but where do i---? order. weathertech.com. sfx: bubblewrap bubble popped sound. when moderate to severe ulcerative colitis persists... put it in check with rinvoq, a once-daily pill. when uc got unpredictable,... i got rapid symptom relief with rinvoq. check. when uc held me back...
6:18 am
i got lasting, steroid-free remission with rinvoq. check. and when uc got the upper hand... rinvoq helped visibly repair the colon lining. check. rapid symptom relief. lasting, steroid-free remission. and a chance to visibly repair the colon lining. check. check. and check. rinvoq can lower your ability to fight infections, including tb. serious infections and blood clots, some fatal; cancers, including lymphoma and skin cancer; death, heart attack, stroke, and tears in the stomach or intestines occurred. people 50 and older... with at least 1 heart disease risk factor have higher risks. don't take if allergic to rinvoq... as serious reactions can occur. tell your doctor if you are or may become pregnant. put uc in check and keep it there, with rinvoq. ask your gastroenterologist about rinvoq. and learn how abbvie could help you save.
6:19 am
♪ music: “everywhere” by fleetwood mac ♪ you ready? ♪ ♪ ♪ can you hear me calling ♪ ♪ out your name? ♪ ♪ you know that i've falling ♪ ♪ and i don't know what to say ♪ ♪ oh, i ♪ dude ♪ i want to be with you everywhere. ♪ from bolt to blazer, equinox to silverado, chevy evs are for everyone, everywhere. imagine the modern teenage
6:20 am
world without mart smartphones. that was the focus of a "wall street journal" headline that caught my eye this week. this school took away martphones, and the kids don't mind. it profiles a massachusetts high school taking on this experiment. the buxton school, 57-student boarding school in williamstown, massachusetts, its students and teachers not allowed to carry smartphones on campus. no instagram, no tiktok, no scrolling while walking to classes or checking in on how many likes they're getting. the campus has gone completely old school. students are allowed to call parents or classmates, but only on non-smart devices. the policy took effect this year after faculty noticed an eroding sense of community. students often look down at screens during meals and even in class, where phones are prohibited. teachers grew tired of being gadget police. kids retreated to rooms after class to stroll and text rather than gathering in student lounges. the prsurprising takeaway is ma of the students say they like the new policy.
6:21 am
one student describes feeling a lot happier and a lot more self-aware. that reaction probably less surprising to my next guest. dr. lemke is the author of "dopamine nation," finding balance in the age of indulgence. she's from the stanford university school of medicine. what is dome pamine, and what d it have to do with my smartphone? >> dopamine is a chemical we make in our brain. it's fundamental to pless asure reward and motivation, and key to getting addicted. when we do something that is rein reinforcing, whether it is ingesting a substance or engaging in a behavior, we release dopamine in a specific part of the brain called the reward circuit. the more dopamine we release and the faster we release it, the more likely that substance or behavior is to be rewarding. so when we're engaging with these devices, they are very
6:22 am
rewarding. they are releasing a whole lot of dopamine in our brain's reward circuitry. >> you're making it sound to me, with no credentials in this disregard, as booze, gambling or sex. is it just the same in that regard? >> it really is just the same. so the process of getting addicted to a drug is very similar to the process of getting addicted to a device or to digital media. people start out for one of two reasons. to have fun or to solve a problem. the problem can range from loneliness and boredom to anxiety and depression. if it works, people return to using it. the problem is, over time, our brains will adapt to that increased surge of dopamine by down down-regulating our own dopamine production. ultimately, what we've done is we've decreased our dopamine
6:23 am
firing levels, not just to their baseline but below baseline. now, we're in a dopamine deficit state. that is very much akin to a clinical depression or to an anxiety disorder. now, we're using this substance not to feel good or get high but just to bring ourselves back up to baseline. when we're not using, woe're experiencing the universal symptoms of withdrawal from any addictive substance, anxiety, irritability, insomnia, and craving. intrusive thoughts of wanting to use our drug. >> dr. lemke, i'm learning all of this from you, and i'm sure the cnn audience is learning all of this from you. big tech, they already know this, right? they've got our number. >> these are the attention engineers. they've hired the neuroscience minds of our generation. they know exactly what they're doing. we are not using their products, we are their products. they have engineered these devices to be incredibly
6:24 am
reinforcing. tiktok really is the equivalent of crack cocaine. i know for myself that the first time i used tiktok, i used it for 3 consecutive hours before i knew what happened. we knew a sense of time when we're chasing dopamine. these digital products are engineered to be addictive, and we are individually and collectively becoming addicted to these devices. >> when your book on dopamine came out two years ago, maybe a little less, you wrote an essay in the "wall street journal." you told a story about a 20-year-old, very, very bright, suffering from anxiety and depression related to this very subject, and in that particular case, instead of prescribing something, meaning some medication, your recommendation was a fast. can you speak to that and whether that works for everybody? >> yeah. so once we recognize that the fundamental problem is that we're bombarding our reward pathway with too much dopamine, the solution is pretty
6:25 am
straightforward. we have to limit our dopamine intake. for this young man who was addicted to video games, i recommended no video games. in fact, no screens for a single month. why a month? because 30 days is about the average time it takes to restore normal dopamine firing. so he put everything away for a month. he went into withdrawal. because in the first two weeks, it is very, very difficult. people will experience these universal symptoms of withdrawal, which can be physical and mental, even when it comes to behaviors. by week three and four, he was feeling so much better. not just better than he had in the first two weeks of the dopamine fast, the screen fast, but, in fact, better than he had in years. he said to me, i'm actually going downstairs, having a conversation with my mother and enjoying that conversation. now, that's rewarding. >> so, finally, you're the expert in this regard, and, yet,
6:26 am
i'm sure you need, given your credentials and attainment, you need to rely on social media or at least electronic communication to some extent. how do you get it done? like, in a typical day or week, what is your fix? >> i use self-binding strategies, which is what i recommend in my book. self-binding strategies are both literal and metacognitive barriers we put between ourselves and the drug of choice, whatever it is, so we're not just exercising our willpower, we are anticipating the pull of the drug in add vaps. w advance. i make sure i don't touch a device at all until i made my bed, exercised, eaten breakfast, and brushed my teeth. before i open my twice, i make a list of what i'm going to do on the device. i'm intentional in advance about how i'm using the device. i also use time as a self-binding strategy. i make sure i consolidate and limit my time on the device,
6:27 am
doing whatever the activity is, so i really focus, not doing two or three or ten things at once, but doing the one thing on the device i need to get done, like answer my email, and then getting off the email. although it is tempting to mindlessly scroll or mindlessly wait for something new to come in, we have to really be disciplined in advance and create these self-binding strategies, so that we limit our consumption. quantity and frequency matter when it comes to addiction. access matters. access is one of the biggest rr risk factors for becoming addicted. we have to build a world in this crazy, over dopamine world, so we can have a healthy relationship with technology. >> everything you said makes perfect sense. my executive producer cath lynn s catherine said in my earpiece, you'd never allow us to get away with that. she's right. i need to rethink that. i'll go to a commercial break in a minute, what am i going to do? look down and see if there was a reaction to the show i need to
6:28 am
respond to. that was excellent. thank you so much. >> you should do a dopamine fast. if you can't do a month, just do 24 hours. this is my 24-hour challenge for people. no screens for 24 hours. plan it in advance. let people know you're not going to be available. don't let your mind tell yourself stories about why you have to be on. don't touch a device for 24 hours, and notice what you feel. >> i'm going to try it. i am going to try it. thank you so much. >> you're welcome. here's social media action that came in. that sounds hypocritical. let's go to twitter, youtube and facebook. andy, the smartphone is part of the society. that's the reality. the responsibility sits with educators to teach etiquette and manners. the lessons follow students into society. i love the boarding school experience. i'm not surprised at all by the outcome, that the kids are mentally healthier and happier. they're interacting with one another. i mean, mingling.
6:29 am
we have to -- bill maher's word, not mine, but i've been on this subject a long time. we have to get back to mingling with one another. up ahead, many days past the election, and control of the house and senate are both und undecided? what are the latest numbers, and what can we expect? along those lines, remember when this was supposed to be a red wave due to historical precedent, the president's low approval rating, 40-year high inflation? is it time to blame the polls yet again? or were they actually correct? and please make smerconish. register for the newsletter, and answer this question, can donald trump win the gop nomination without the support of the conservative media? wouldn't be a thing. yeahah, dad! i don't want to dedeal with this. oh, you brought your luggage to the airport. that's adorable. with shipgo shipping your luggage before you fly
6:30 am
you'll never have to wait around here again. like ever. that can't be comfortable though. shipgo.com the smart, fast, easy way to travel. i have moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. now, there's skyrizi. with skyrizi, 3 out of 4 people achieved 90% clearer skin at 4 months... and skyrizi is just 4 doses a year, after 2 starter doses. serious allergic reactions and an increased risk of infections, or a lower ability to fight them, may occur. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms, had a vaccine or plan to. ♪nothing is everything♪ talk to your dermatologist about skyrizi. learn how abbvie could help you save. pain hits fast. so get relief fast. only tylenol rapid release gels have laser drilled holes.
6:31 am
they release medicine fast for fast pain relief. and now get relief without a pill with tylenol dissolve packs. relief without the water. what if “just an idea” could become a family tradition? this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire. ♪ the hiring process used to be the death of me. but with upwork...
6:32 am
6:34 am
congress. the senate, 49-49, with two races to be decided. the house, where 218 is the magic number, is at 211 for the gop, 203 for the dems. in times like these, i always like to turn to cnn's senior data reporter, harry entin. there is only nevada and georgia, the run-off. what's the latest in nevada's senate race, and why is it taking so long? >> so a few things. number one, in nevada, what we've seen is catherine cortez masto has closed within 1,000 votes. she gains as more mail ballots are counted. in clark county, obviously the home to las vegas. it is those mail ballots that take so long to get counted in nevada because they only have to be postmarked by election day. they can come in as late as saturday. now, nevada has universal mail voting for all registered voters. essentially what's happening, they're getting the envelopes, they have to verify the signatures, and it takes a while to count ballots. better to be accurate than fast.
6:35 am
obviously, you prefer to be both, but it's best to be accurate. >> harry, as i watch, and i'm watching a lot of harry enten this week, which is a good thing, but i'm watching the margin get smaller to smaller. as a neophyte, p trajectory continues, she beats him, right, in the senate race? >> look, i think that is most likely scenario. we have to wait for the mail ballots to get in. every time the mail ballots came in, she's hitting essentially what she needs to hit to overtake him. that's the same thing, obviously, in arizona. we saw mark kelly was doing what he needed to do. that's why cnn rejected the race. in nevada, cortez masto is hitting the numbers she needs to hit. getting 63%, 64% of the mail ballots that are coming in. yeah, if i were making a bet at this particular point, i would think that she will, in fact, win re-election. >> okay. which would mean that georgia
6:36 am
then, still an important race, but it'd be gravy for the ds. then it'd be a question of whether they go to 51 or it is 50/50 with the vice president breaking ties the way, frankly, it was going into the election. the house, how do you see the big picture for the house of representatives? >> i mean, look, the fact that we're still talking about the house on the saturday after the election was not something i envisioned at all. look, republicans, obviously, have won more of the projected races so far. 211-203. although, the democratic number has been coming up. i think the real question is, can democrats eventually overtake republicans? i think they can. i don't think it is the most likely scenario. republicans are favored, but there are a number of races out in california where republicans currently hold the advantage, where i wouldn't be surprised if democrats overtake. california's 22nd congressional district, if i'm recalling correctly, with valadao, back in 2018, he lost a race that he led for basically a month. because california has universal
6:37 am
mail voting. it counts a lot time to count the ballots. as of yesterday, only a third of the votes have been counted in the district. he was up, but we're going to have to be patient here. california and the west coast, with all its mail voting, it takes time to count the ballots. the house is far from determined at this point, even if republicans are the favorite. if they win control, it is probably only 220, 221 seats. it is ridiculously close. >> it feels like groundhog day. i'm tired of seeinging it, so i hope it is over soon. harry, nicely done. thank you so much. >> thank you, sir. more social media now. what do you have? an unmitigated disaster for rs. entire leadership should step down. trump need to get out of the way. john, when you take a look, and i went through some at the outset of the program today, in the races with he put his thumb on the scale -- and i'm not laying it all off on trump -- you know, you get what you deserve. republicans nominated those candidates that he weighed in
6:38 am
for. it's unmistakable, i'll go with peggy noonan's word, the normy republicans,sununu, d terrific. those who were deniers, peter meyer in michigan, you know, an old school conservative for sure, republican in grand rapids, that he got defeated by an election denier who bought into some of the crazy conspiracies about hillary because trump was offended that meyer voted for impeachment. okay, look what happened. the ds pick up the seat that otherwise would have been meyer's for as long as he wanted to serve in the congress. make sure you're answering the poll question at smerconish.com. an interesting one. i pushed selena zito at the outset. she wasn't sure of the answer. can donald trump win a gop nomination without the support of the conservative media? because many of them this week jumped ship. still to come, speaking of all this election data, what happened to the midterm red
6:39 am
wave? were we all misled by pollsters, or did they get it accurate? ydrt lightweight. clinically proven. 48-hour hydration.n. for that healthy skin glow. neutrogena®. for people with skin. every year, millions of people find a health p plan at healthcare.gov during open enrollment. ♪ so they can enjoy more visits. ♪ have more meet and greets. and have less to worry about. with the new law, 4 out of 5 customers can find a plan for $10 a month or less with financial help. feel like a million and find your plan during open enrollment. healthcare.gov is here for millions. like you. living with metastatic breast cancer means being relentless. because every day matters. and having more of them is possible with verzenio. the only one of its kind proven to help you live significantly longer when taken with fulvestrant, regardless of menopause status.
6:40 am
verzenio + fulvestrant is for hr+, her2- metastatic breast cancer that has progressed after hormone therapy. diarrhea is common, may be severe, or cause dehydration or infection. at the first sign, call your doctor start an anti-diarrheal and drink fluids. before taking verzenio, tell your doctor about any fever, chills, or other signs of infection. verzenio may cause low white blood cell counts, which may cause serious infection that can lead to death. life-threatening lung inflammation can occur. tell your doctor about any new or worsening trouble breathing, cough, or chest pain. serious liver problems can happen. symptoms include fatigue, appetite loss, stomach pain and bleeding or bruising. blood clots that can lead to death have occurred. tell your doctor if you have pain or swelling in your arms or legs, shortness of breath, chest pain, and rapid breathing or heart rate, or if you're nursing, pregnant or plan to be. every day matters. and i want more of them. ask your doctor about everyday verzenio.
6:42 am
6:43 am
so what happened to the midterm red wave? in other wds, were the llsters wrong again? you'llemember that as we approached election day, the drum beats were sounding that the gop was on a trajectory to probably take both houses of congress, flip some governorships and generally mop the floor. with an unpopular president, a bad economy, and a 75% thought process that the country is headed in the wrong direction. on the eve of the election, by way of example, real quick politics had the senate going 53-47 for republicans. at 5:38, nate silver laid odds of the gop taking the senate at 59 out of 100. in the betting model, it predicted to win a dollar, you had to bet 63 cents for the gop taking the senate. only 37 for the democrats.
6:44 am
in two key senate races, the group which often bucks co conventional wisdom, masters was over kelly. last night, the race was called for kelly with the latest tabulation up 5.7. nevada, the republican was up by nearly five over the incumbent, cortez masto. as of today, the lead is less than 1,000 votes or 0.1%. that lead has been steadily dwindling. yet, after midnight election night, nate silver was saying on his podcast, the pollsters seem to have had a pretty good night. joining me now to discuss is a political columnist and data analyst for "the washington post," where his election postmortem piece was sitetitlede early verdict, the polls were okay." if that's the case, if the polls were okay, why was the outcome received as such a surprise? >> well, i think the hype got
6:45 am
ahead of the polls. if we forget for just a second about analysis and trying to say which pollster is better than the other pollster, or how are we unskewing this or that or whatever, and we just look at the aggregates, simple, top line numbers, the polls did a pretty good job. if you look back at national house polling, most of the sort of major aggregates said the republicans were going to have a very narrow victory. races haven't been called yet, but by my estimation, we're on track for the republicans to have a narrow victory in the national vote. if you look at it on a race-by-race basis and throw trafalgar and the other pollsters into an average with everyone else, you see the close races were close, and the b blowouts ended up being blowouts. they predicted the winner in ohio, north carolina, wisconsin. the average got it right, i would say, in arizona. so i think if you just sort of, you know, simplify a little bit and just look at the numbers,
6:46 am
you see that, you know, the survey researchers did their job. >> i think that the public and pundit class have disregard for margin of error. you know, you hear a race is 51-49, and you just go with the p person with the 51. i referenced 5:3838. 60/40, let's call it. there is a 40% chance it won't be, but we disregard that. >> yeah. i think that's exactly right. i mean, to someone who, you know, has a profession of probability, a professional poker player or something like that, 59% probability is different from a 50/50 probability. but for most people, 59%, that feels like a coin flip. that's a toss-up. that's not something where the republicans have some overwhelming advantage that's going to carry them, you know, with certainty to a majority. so really what you had going into the election was a narrow
6:47 am
advantage for republicans in the house. you know, again, we're waiting for races to be called, but they still have a narrow advantage here on saturday. a toss-up in the senate. most likely, when all the votes are counted, you'll end up with either 50 or 51 democrats, which is, you know, kisconsistent wit toss-up. people who are expecting the polls to be accurate are asking a little bit more than really any predictive measure can deliver. >> and notwithstanding what you've said, meaning, i'll accept everything you've offered so far, could there, nonetheless, have been some overcompensation for the republican vote because, in the last few cycles, it seems like it had been discounted? >> right. i mean, if you read the commentary and the analysis and everything heading into the election, even people whose numbers were saying, hey, this is a toss-up, they were biting their nails, saying, well, what if i'm missing the republican voters again? what if there is a problem with my likely voter model?
6:48 am
what if there's a problem with people not responding? people were really worried about that. they were kind of second-guessing their own math and their own estimates. i think that the lesson of 2022 for everyone, me included, is trust the process. if you have a process and it is your, you know, analytical way of looking at the world and it says, hey, this is a toss-up, don't second-guess based on hype or vibes. go with your numbers. more often than that, that'll lead you in the right direction. >> i'm a 76ers fan, and that slogan has still not panned out for us. we're still waiting. thank you, david. that was really great, and i appreciate it. >> thank you. checking in on your tweets, facebook, youtube, social media comments. the polls predicted a red wave. when will you journalists and pundits accept the fact that you guys were wrong once again? the polls actually didn't predict a red wave.
6:49 am
the headlines, we use them. we call them full screens. i said, make sure you get all the full screens that show red wave. but when you actually look at the data, you go into those real clear politics averages, among other places, no, they were all saying it is a pretty damn close race. if it is a 51-49 race and it's got a 3% margin of error, it's really like 3% extended either way, so there's like a 6-point margin, where it could come out. but i think we all fall into the trap where, you know, you hear the bucks are favored to defeat whomever. you're like, objection, they're saying it'll be tampa bay. you have to look more closely at it. yes, there was a lot of glomming on to the idea it'd be a blowout, and it wasn't. still to come, more of your best and worst tweets and youtube and facebook comments, and the final result. i cannot wait to see this. i have no idea what you're going to say. can donald trump win the gop nomination without the support of the conservative media?
6:50 am
selr fromom anywhere it's getting as soon as next day delivery or picking your new ride up at one of our sleek car vending machchines. and it's the comfort of a seven day return policy to make sure it fits your life. because at carvana, we take joy in making every customer well happy. carvana will drive you happy. ♪ ♪ ♪ voltaren. the joy of movement. ♪ your record label is taking off.
6:51 am
but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire when moderate to severe ulcerative colitis persists... put it in check with rinvoq, a once-daily pill. when uc got unpredictable,... i got rapid symptom relief with rinvoq. check. when uc held me back... i got lasting, steroid-free remission with rinvoq. check. and when uc got the upper hand... rinvoq helped visibly repair the colon lining. check. rapid symptom relief. lasting, steroid-free remission. and a chance to visibly repair the colon lining. check. check. and check. rinvoq can lower your ability to fight infections, including tb. serious infections and blood clots, some fatal; cancers, including lymphoma and skin cancer; death, heart attack, stroke, and tears in the stomach or intestines occurred. people 50 and older... with at least 1 heart disease risk factor have higher risks. don't take if allergic to rinvoq... as serious reactions can occur.
6:52 am
tell your doctor if you are or may become pregnant. put uc in check and keep it there, with rinvoq. ask your gastroenterologist about rinvoq. and learn how abbvie could help you save. men put their skin through a lot. day-in, day-out that's why dove men body wash has skin-strengthening nutrients and moisturizers that help rebuild your skin. dove men+care. smoother, healthier skin with every shower.
6:54 am
result of this week's, wow, 3103 votes cast. we will leave it up all day. can donald trump win the gop nomination without the support of thetive media? 85% i'll say have the correct answer he can't. i am of a decided opinion that years ago the rnc was supplanted by the a.m. radio band. he cannot win without the support of the conservative media.
6:55 am
i gave examples where there are cracks in that armor. but keep your eye on the primetime lineup of fox. that's when you'll know it's really over when hannity and tucker abandon him. some of your social media reaction, if they should abandon him. i am not saying they will. the donald is toast if the fox media heavyweights turn on him. they reach the heart of the base. that's true. it comes from, you know, that oracle. another one. what else came in in social media? i think the better question is can anyone else get the republican nomination without trump supporters? if they go separate ways, i don't think it matters. i asked selina zito what i think is the key question. there is a lot of ego on that stage, the individuals who could possibly run for the presidency as republicans or democrats. are they prepared to stand down? just because desantis is now viewed favorably by the gop, does that mean that youngkin
6:56 am
doesn't get in, that rubio doesn't get in, fill in the blank, they all stand aside? i remember being at the reagan library when there were 15 candidates on that stage and in that environment with a hard-core base, trump continues to win the nomination. keep voting at smerconish.com. see you next week. ♪ when you see things differerently, you can be the difference. welcome. capella university looks at education differently. our flexpath learning format helps you control the pace and cost of your master's degree. make your difference with capella university.
6:57 am
is it possible the only thought that comes to mind is... ♪ finally? this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire. ♪ ♪ hit it!♪ ♪it takes two to make a thing go right♪ ♪it takes two to make it outta sight♪ ♪one, two, get loose now! it takes two to make a-♪ get double rewards points this fall. book now at bestwestern.com. moderate to severe eczema still disrupts my skin. despite treatment it disrupts my skin with itch. it disrupts my skin with rash. but now, i can disrupt eczema with rinvoq. rinvoq is not a steroid, topical, or injection.
6:58 am
it's one pill, once a day, that's effective without topical steroids. many taking rinvoq saw clear or almost-clear skin while some saw up to 100% clear skin. plus, they felt fast itch relief some as early as 2 days. that's rinvoq relief. rinvoq can lower your ability to fight infections, including tb. serious infections and blood clots, some fatal, cancers including lymphoma and skin cancer, death, heart attack, stroke, and tears in the stomach or intestines occurred. people 50 and older with at least one heart disease risk factor have higher risks. don't take if allergic to rinvoq, as serious reactions can occur. tell your doctor if you are or may become pregnant. disrupt the itch and rash of eczema. talk to your doctor about rinvoq. learn how abbvie can help you save.
7:00 am
143 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNN (San Francisco) Television Archive Television Archive News Search Service The Chin Grimes TV News ArchiveUploaded by TV Archive on