this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you from new york. today on the program, a russian made missile lands in poland and biden and xi meet for three hours. i explore what we learned from nato's would-be crisis, and what we can glean from talks between the world's two most powerful leaders. with richard haass and tim naftali. also, is china ready to seize taiwan? that is the question the reporter dexter filkins sought to answer in a new story for "the new yorker." what did he learn from his trip to the embattled island? and it's now been more than two months since a woman died after being arrested by iran's morality police. what do we need to know about iran's gen-z, the young people leading the protest?

i'll talk to holly dagres. but first, here's my take. it is heartening to see some important republican figures come out against donald trump. but it's worth noting that many of them embrace him when he proposed a muslim ban, was impeached, and then tried to overturn an election. his real sin in their eyes, is that now he's losing popularity. however, trump's slump among republicans could change. imagine that during the 2024 republican campaign, the republican party runs a large and varied field. ron desantis, nikki haley, liz cheney, among other possible candidates. trump would start with a shrunken base but generate

publicity and would likely win the largest single vote share in the early prime ministers. he might not get past 50% in any state, but most republican state primary systems favor the front-runner, and in state after state, he would just do better than anyone else. as ron brownstein reminds us, that is how trump became the presumptive nominee in 2016, while only garnering around 40% of total votes. voters did deliver a powerful rebuke to the republicans in the midterms, centered around election denial and abortion. but those who shifted appear to have been independents and a sliver of moderate republicans. these are not the voters who will determine the results of republican primaries. the results also don't tell us enough about a possible matchup between trump and desantis. desantis' victory in the florida gubernatorial race was impressive, but in the early

stages of a presidential campaign, desantis would not be facing trump mano a mano, but as rather one choice among many. a poll found almost half of likely primary voters still prefer trump, with about a quarter favoring desantis and 6% favoring pence. desantis' popularity will probably have increased in recent weeks, but in a possible 2024 presidential campaign, he will be fighting for not trump voters and the not trump lane of the republican party is going to get very crowded. for trump to have a revival of his fortunes, many would jump back on his bandwagon. ted cruz has already reserved a spot there, promising if trump gets the nomination, he would enthusiastically support him. republican officials seem to be hoping that their voters will do their dirty work for them, and

deliver them from trump. reversing the usual roads of leaders and followers. but it won't work. the party must put an end to its moral cowardice and explain to voters that trump is a demagogue who tried to undermine american democracy, which should make him an unacceptable nominee for the republican party. in a fascinating essay in foreign affairs, sherry berman points out that america is something of an outlier among well-established democracies. she notes that in many western european countries, right wing parties have been forced to retreat from their most extreme positions and except things like the euro and the war in ukraine. but in the u.s., the republican party having opted for extremism in the wake of the trump revolution, has been far more

willing to go along with his dictates, with a slate of almost 300 election deniers as candidates in the midterms. the reason, berman points out in the essay and in a conversation with me, is that the institutions and norms of liberal democracy are strong in western europe. the political parties act responsibly, european and national institutions maintain their independence, and leaders call out bad behavior. so from sweden to italy, when radical right-wing parties come to power, they are rarely able to change policy along the dramatic lines they had once called for. she notes that in sweden and italy, the far right parties have had to moderate their policies significantly to attract support and be seen as serious enough to govern. the united states unfortunately has a weaker, more open political system to begin with, defined nowadays by primaries, money, social media, and celebrity. all of which enable an

entrepreneurial politician like trump to take over a major political party and turn it into something resembling a personality cult. at the last republican national convention, not one of the former presidents or presidential nominees of the party spoke, but six members of trump's family were given prominent slots, something unthinkable in a european country. berman writes that freedom house and other groups that track democratic development have noted a marked decline in the strength of american democracy but found no similar decline in western europe. in countries where democratic institutions are weaker, such as hungary, turkey, and alas, nowadays the united states, demagogues change parties rather than the other way around. to fend off this threat, republican leaders must act to purge their party, and country,

of extremism. even after the midterms, trump and trumpism will not magically vanish. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my "the washington post" column this we're, and let's get started ♪ most eyes and attention this week were on the missile that landed in poland just over the border from ukraine on tuesday, but the united states does not believe russia fired that missile. what we all should have been paying attention to was the devastating aerial bombardment of ukraine that moscow delivered this week. the british ministry of defense said there was the largest number of strikes that russia has conducted in a single day since the first week of the invasion. one of the main targets has been

energy infrastructure, plunging swaths of ukrainians into darkness. kyiv experienced blackouts and communication disruptions, all this as winter, cold, and snow have arrived. let me bring in the panel to talk about ukraine and we'll later get to china. i have two terrific guests joins me in studio, richard haass, and tim naftali. richard is the president of the council on foreign relations, and tim is a cnn presidential historian and teaches history at nyu. so that bombardment, this is part of the new general that's been put in place in russia. this is the guy who oversaw the syrian campaign. this is exactly what he did in syria. it is brutal. and they're going for energy infrastructure, they're basically plunging the civilian population into cold and misery, right? can ukraine just keep taking these body blows? >> you're exactly right. this is the aleppo-ization of the

ukraine war. russia went compete on the battlefield, so they're saying we are going to so increase the misery, that we are going to try to get you to say "uncle" so we can claim this was worth it. mass bombing tending to stiffen the spine of civilian populations, but we'll see. he's hoping the new house of representatives here might give him a break. he's hoping europeans get cold this winter, maybe they'll lose their spirit of backing ukraine. and obviously he wants to break the back of the ukrainian people. i don't think it will work, but that right now is his strategy. >> do you agree with that? >> oh, it's absolutely his strategy. he is looking for weakness, for lack of resolve on the part of europeans and the united states. and like all autocrats, he underestimates democracies. one thing you can count on from an autocrat, they think we are weak and always get surprised when we don't back down. so we have to project a sense of unity and resolve.

>> which we have so far been able to do, right? >> remarkably so. the united states and europe have continued to tell putin and continue to sell signals to putin that we mean it when we want to defend ukrainian sovereignty. >> but it does highlight that ukraine is going to be devastated. i don't know if you can come up with a figure to describe what the rebuilding of ukraine is going to cost at this stage. >> it's incalculable. this is pulverization. this is a modern society. we've both spent time there. you go to downtown kyiv and you could have been in any modern city in contemporary europe. the cost of this, a quarter of the population has been displaced. the physical cost now. i spoke to a friend the other day in kyiv. i think she is on the 23rd floor of her building.

the only way to get to her apartment is to walk up and down the stairs. imagine what this is like for the elderly and for young children. so this is a conscious strategy. these are war crimes on an hourly basis. that is what we are seeing. and the cost of rebuilding ukraine, the years it will take, the dollars it will take, will be enormous. >> tim, you had a fascinating piece in "foreign affairs" that you pointed out putin, in a conference with a bunch of russian journalists, in answer to one of his favorite foreign policy experts, who has been on this show, the guy asked him about the cuban missile crisis. and what did he say? >> he asked putin, are you going to be like khrushchev, accepting a retreat?

and putin -- >> he said are you going to be like khrushchev, and putin says, you mean, accept a retreat? no. >> what's so important is that there is a sense among american and some european elites that the cuban missile crisis ended peacefully because of statesmanship on both sides. there is no doubt that statesmanship mattered. but the initial move towards an off-ramp was from the russian, the soviet side. the russians were scared. the reason they were scared is they were looking for some lack of resolve on the part of john f. kennedy and they didn't see it. when john f. kennedy imposed a blockade and stuck by it , khrushchev realized, i don't want war. so don't look to history to give putin a reason for an off ramp. don't give putin a sense you want to end this, because he's looking for that. he is desperate for strauss. force him to want an off-ramp the way that john f. kennedy forced khrushchev to look for an off ramp.

>> i would agree, but >> but khrushchev acted you believed greater restraint. there was a degree of institutions in the soviet union. you had a degree of collective leadership. we have a personalization and a de-institutionalization of that country, which makes it frightening that one man has so much power. >> but we shouldn't be searching be offramps for putin? we should be maintaining pressure and let him look for the off-ramps? >> absolutely. neither side is prepared to accept half a loaf. what we want to do is create the conditions for diplomacy rather than go directly into diplomacy. stay with us. when we come back, we're going to solve the china problem, right here. show your sore throat who's boss. mucinex instasoothe. works in seconds, lasts for hours.

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when biden came into office, he did little to moderate the tough foreign policy stance that trump took on china. but this week, there was at least the potential for a thaw, as president biden and xi jinping met for three hours ahead of the g20 in bali. it was the first in-person meeting between the two men as leaders of their respective nations. we are back with historian tim naftali and richard haass of the council of foreign relations. richard, what did you think of this biden/xi meeting? >> not bad. almost nostalgic. it kind of looked like diplomacy to me. unlike the original meeting of the senior lieutenants of both governments in anchorage, which was this scolding match that was unprofessional and counterproductive. both came there with a desire to

lower the temperature to build a floor under this relationship. we want china's help with ukraine, among other things. they haven't provided arms to russia, as best we know. all good. xi jinping, despite his consolidation of power, has an in-box, shall we say, that is enough to keep anybody up at night, all the economic challenges, the health challenges, the demographic challenges, what have you. so he too wanted to slightly calm things down. china is on something of a charm offensive right now. so they didn't solve problems, fareed, they've agreed to institutionalize more talks. that might be the most important thing. again, it's diplomacy. it's at least the beginning of a possibility of avoiding some downside. even possibly creating some limited areas of upside. >> tim, what do you think about this possibility of china not quite breaking with russia but putting more pressure on russia? this is an odd alliance.

it harkens back to the cold war when it was the same alliance but in reverse. at that time, the soviet union was the major power and china was the minor power. this time the roles are reversed. >> our objectives with the chinese should be limited and should be do no harm. what we really want is the chinese not to mess around with taiwan, and let north korea do what it wants to do. if china just doesn't provoke in asia, it gives us a chance to focus on ukraine. i think our objectives with china should be short-term. diplomacy is a good way to achieve it, but we should be laser-like focused on putin. we don't want two 70-year-old autocrats to find a reason to work together. they are both unhappy with american power. look, both china and russia share that. we should remind china of the reasons they need to work with us. >> is it possible to get to a

kind of real working relationship with the chinese? because while there is all this talk, the biden administration is essentially waging a kind of economic war on china with the chips ban and things like that, the chinese are looking at that saying the americans want to keep us down. what is the potential for, you know, a real working relationship? >> first of all, you're right. after years of saying we wanted to support china's rise and bring them into the international economy, now we're saying we changed our mind. we don't like the way you do things, so we are trying to slow down china's rise. so there is that. that is the backdrop. i'm skeptical that we can have a cooperative relationship. china has had decades to rein in north korea. i've seen zero evidence. remember that old line the french used to say about germany -- we like germany so

much, that we like two of them. china wants to keep that peninsula divided. they are more worried about a unified korea working against them than a north korea with nukes and missiles. so they're not helping us there. >> is there an analogy with the cold war, where at some point the u.s./soviet relationship, which initially was very tense and there were no super power summits or anything like that, and really, it's the early '60s where the cuban missile crisis, and both sides realized we've got to have a good working relationship with each other. what would it take to get the u.s. and china to realize, look, there is a real danger of this spiraling out of control? the two largest technological powers in the world going at it in space, and artificial intelligence. how do we rein it in? how do we rein it?in? >> in the 1960s, there was a shared fear of nuclear danger that brought the united states and the soviet union to a series of understandings about limiting the arms race. in the case of the united states and china, it's china's

recognition that the world economy matters, and it's not so much a nuclear danger. no one is talking about a nuclear war between china and the united states. their actions should flip the game board and make it impossible for them to achieve the standard of living increases that xi himself has talked about. xi's not committed to market capitalism at all. but he wants the chinese people to enjoy growth and better living standards. it's making him understand that cooperation with us is necessary to keep the world economic system together. >> and presumably we have to real that as well, this economic warfare against china -- >> could turn against us.

our ability to use economics to persuade china to act with restraint, we have a problem. we are so dependant, over 40% of taiwan's economy is based upon exports to the mainland. we are so dependant on china economically. but the question is, who has the leverage? i think we have the same problem with china. if there ever is crisis over in taiwan, it will be really interesting. does the economic relationship, who derives more leverage from it? and right now we have not positioned ourselves so we can pressure china. in some ways they can pressure us and our allies. >> we're going to have to close this conversation for now. and we are going to look in greater depth at taiwan, with "the new yorker" reporter dexter filkins, who tells us what the taiwanese think of the possibility of an invasion. take to c studio. ♪ they knew what it meant to keep evolving, and never give up. ♪ they saw the future. ♪ can you? ♪ the next generation lexus rx. with its bold design, intuitive technology,

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after meeting with xi jinping this week, joe biden said he did not see any imminent attempt on the part of china to invade taiwan. but at last month's party congress where xi cemented a third term, he declared complete reunification of our country must be realized. so is an invasion coming, just not imminently? my next guest has a new article called a dangerous game over taiwan. dexter filkins is a staff writer at "the new yorker." dexter, welcome. what was it like to be in taiwan? taiwan has handled covid fantastically. did you have quarantine? >> i did. it's very intense. it feels like 2020. when i got on the airplane, the flight attendants had on full bodysuits.

i was met in taipei by people who escorted me to a quarantined taxi to a quarantined hotel. and i was locked in my room for four days. >> and now, we talk a lot about this tension between china and the u.s. over taiwan, and the point that's always struck me as the most dangerous part is this, there is a status quo that's kept the peace in taiwan for a long time, 50 years, where everyone recognizes that let's not mess with the status quo. taiwan shouldn't declare independence and china shouldn't invade. but the problem is, the thing that might change the status quo is what you report in your piece, which is younger people in taiwan are increasingly very fiercely independent minded. i don't know if that means they would vote for independence, but they are absolutely clear they have nothing to do with china,

they have no connection, they're a separate country. the party that represents them seems to be most likely to win again. it feels like in other words what is changing and what china must be noticing is that every day taiwan becomes more pro independence, even if not formally, de facto. >> exactly. that's the problem in a nutshell. china is watching this and see taiwan drifting away. it's generational. ed the young people are like, china? forget it. you know, we've got a democracy here. the economy is booming. it's super sophisticated. we don't want anything to do with those guys. china see what's happening, and the dpp, the ruling party is giving voice to that. that's creating a lot of attention, because china sees what is happening clearly in front of them. >> if china were to want to do something, the militaries are completely mismatched, right?

china has 2 million people under arms. taiwan has how many? >> 200,000. but i think it's in china's interest, if they were going to invade, to do it fast. basically before the cavalry, which would be the united states, could ride in. but there is a possibility, something under the radar, like a blockade, that would be -- that would cripple taiwan. it's an island. they're dependant on everything, from oil to natural gas to food. so if suddenly the ships couldn't come and go, the place would shut down. >> you point out they have 11 days worth of supply of energy. >> exactly. >> it's coal and liquefied natural gas. so just a blockade, and they would be crippled. >> exactly. china knows that. so when nancy pelosi, right

after her visit in august, they basically the chinese navy essentially practiced the blockade. they had the ships outside all the major ports. so i think that, to me, is probably more realistic danger than full-on d-day. >> and you quote somebody in the article saying, the reason that would be so deadly is because if you would have just blockade or delayed the arrival of a series of commercial cargo ships, would that cause the outrage, would it trigger a response from the u.s.? >> exactly. what would we be watching on television? a ship in the pacific ocean stopped by the chinese navy. that might be an essential ship with food, but why is anybody going to get outraged? but it's crippling to the

taiwanese economy and the policy lace. >> when you asked the taiwanese what they thought of joe biden, four times now saying that the united states would come to the defense of taiwan military, which is not something the u.s. is treaty bound to do, do they take that to mean there will be american troops in taiwan? >> i think so. they're skeptical. they feel like in their past they've been kind of betrayed before. but for instance, we're not all paying attention to every move in taiwan. but when biden said for the fourth time we will defend taiwan, i got a text message from a very senior official in the government saying, fourth time. they feel very insecure and very vulnerable. so i feel like they don't think they could do it without the united states.

>> do you think the situation now is sort of stable or are we in a kind of escalatory cycle where the u.s. does things that it feels is designed for taiwan's defense, but china regards those as provocative, and then it does things, you know what i mean? >> yeah, yeah. i talk to a lot of people in the biden administration. that's what they're worried about, they're worried about an accident. every time the united states sends a warship into the south china sea, it's international waters, two chinese ships right next to it. every time they send up a plane, a chinese plane is right next to it. >> and the chinese planes, often the pilots say stop, turn back. and then the u.s. pilot has to say, we are in -- we are not in territorial space. so there's a -- there's this confrontation every time. >> every time. so what happens?

that's happening every day. so what happens if those planes bump or the ships bump? as has happened before actually. but what happens then? one of the things the people in the biden administration made clear to me is that the communications between the senior leaderships in washington and beijing, it's not good. they said to me, we're sending messages to xi jinping and they're not getting through. >> perhaps the scariest part of your piece, you said there is a hard line between washington and beijing, but a lot of times the beijing side does not pick up the phone. >> literally, yeah, yeah. that to me was -- i mean, i think somebody from the trump administration said to me, we have these channels to get messages to xi, and we realize that they weren't getting through. and then he said, the biden administration has concluded the same thing, which is we're not getting through. that's super dangerous.

>> on that cheery note, you're reporting from countries from anywhere in the would, always insightful. >> thank you so much. next on "gps," iran's ayatollah khomeini was once a young revolutionary. now the 83-year-old leader is facing an uprising from today's youth. we'll explore that after the break. ♪ voltaren. the joy of movement. ♪ two loads of snot covered laundry. only one will be sanitized. wait, what? adding lysol laundry sanitizer kills 99.9% of bacteria detergent alone, can't. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market

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who are driving the protests. women and gen-z. my next guest wrote an article for "foreign policy" explaining just who iran's gen-z is and what they want. holly dagres is a senior fellow with the middle east programs. holly, welcome. i want to first ask you, when you see these protests and you see the police pretty brutally putting an end to them, people are imprisoned, it doesn't seem to be having the effect that, you know, governments are often able to achieve, which is to get people po disperse, as to stop protesting, they don't want to lose their jobs or their livelihoods. how are the iranians able to just keep going? >> well, i would say hope springs eternal for starters. this is a people that have been through so much the past four

decades with a brutal and authoritarian government under the leadership of the islamic republic. so they know their lives are on the lives, that they could be beaten or shot. that should tell you how desperate they are for change and fed up against the status quo. they're not just chanting against the clerical establishment saying things like death to the dictator, they're chanting for freedom. they're chanting they no longer want an islamic republic, and that supreme leaders guardianship is invalid. that explains why people continue to go to the streets. additionally, the more protestors that are killed, if you talk to the protestors on the ground, they tell you the more we rise up. for instance, just the past few days, we saw the death of a 10-year-old boy who was, according to his family, killed by security forces. this little boy had dreams of being a robotics engineer.

and these pictures and videos of this little boy have gone viral and brought so much achor to the -- anger to the streets of iran over the death of this boy that had so much potential. >> you talk in the article about how these gen-z protestors have managed to communicate. 80% of iranians are on social media. we forget how social media can be this force for incredible, you know, allowing people to organize themselves. talk a little about that. >> 80% of iranians over the age of 18 use social media messaging apps, albeit through numerous hurdles. they use circumvention tools like vpns. that's the only way to have their voices heard.

what's interesting is that when mahsa amini was murdered, she was a hashtag, her name, and her family embracing each other post mortem, went viral in iran and it was that anger online that poured into the streets. so a lot of these videos and images coming out of the country, iranians want their voices to be heard. they want human rights organizations to document what's happening. they want the media to pay attention. because they don't have any other way of connecting to the world. this is exactly why social media is so integral right now to the people of iran. >> it feels still like a david versus goliath struggle in the sense that they don't have a single leader or a political party that is organizing this. where does this go? does it have the capacity to by itself, do damage to regime? >> it's an important question you're asking and one we get a

lot. i remember the arab spring, they were also leaderless, but that doesn't mean that it's meaningless. protestors don't need our skepticism, they need our support. and right now, the point of why protestors are in the street is because they don't want an islamic republic. yes, it is a david and goliath moment, but i think that the more attention is given to what's happening in iran, especially with the protestors, the more it helps their cause. >> holly, pleasure to have you on. a real honor. thank you. >> thank you. next on "gps," swedish prosecutors declared this week that sabotage was behind the explosions at the nord stream undersea pipeline that is carry gas. we'll look at what could become another casualty of the conflict, the pipes deep in the ocean, when we come back.

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and now for the last look. on september 26th, two nord stream pipelines in the baltic sea were rocked by a series of explosions. the pipelines carry natural gas from russia to germany and the it caused gas to spew to the surface so dramatically, it could be seen from space. months later, little is known about exactly who was behind the suspected attacks on the pipelines, but prosecutors did declare this week that sabotage was to blame after traces of explosives were discovered at the site. some fingers point towards the kremlin, which has been seeking to punish european countries for supporting ukraine. russia denies involvement but the event highlights the underlying weakness in the critical infrastructure that connects the world's nations and one that russia could easily

disrupt. you see, when tech companies talk about our data being stored in the cloud, we may think of the sky. but our emails, financial transactions and phone calls sent abroad are also likely to be found zipping through narrow tubes on the bottom of the ocean floor. these cables are cheaper and faster than the satellite alternatives. even a decade ago, the u.s. federal reserve estimated that $10 trillion a day was being transmitted through this underwater network. the optical fibers that do the transmitting are as narrow as a human hair. encased in protective material, the whole apparatus is often no thicker than a standard garden hose. . >> as of 2022 the market research telegraphy has tracked 530 active and planned undersea cables have been planned, stretching hundreds of thousands of miles. some as deep on the ocean floor

as mt. everest is high. as of 2009, the u.n. believed that between 100 to 150 cables are damaged each year by commercial fishing, earthquakes and sometimes even sharks and the threat of underwater terrorism is real with many analysts now worrying that a wave of rising geopolitical tension could soon spill on to the ocean floor. the "financial times" told us one recent incident in the north sea that has raised eyebrows in the international security space. cables supplying internet and communications to the shetland islands experienced significant damage, severely impacting service. officials believe it may have been caused by fishing vessel activity, but the presence of a russian ship in the vicinity has raised concerns it could have been sabotage. a russian spy ship is set to be spotted near cable sites and

said to carry tools capable of cutting through and tapping these pieces of critical infrastructure. the russians aren't alone in alleged underwater espionage, either. the edward snowden leaks in 2013 revealed information about a program called tempora where the uk was tapping into transatlantic internet cables, sucking up vast troevgs of data and sharing it with the united states. china has gotten in on the cable game too. several state-owned companies own, maintain and repair undersea cables. china's move to increase its dominance in this cable industry has prompted taiwan to increase spending on its own infrastructure for fear that china could have a tight grip on its telecons. in the early 20th century the world was connected with a similar network of undersea cables but they carried telegraph signals. the united kingdom was a dominant force in the industry, given the wide reach of its empire. during world war i, british

forces engaged in an early act of information warfare, they cut the cables connecting their adversary germany with the outside world. more than 100 years later, russia could do something similar with devastating consequences. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. unlike some others, neuriva plus is a multitasker supporting 6 key indicators of brain health. to help keep me sharp. neuriva: think bigger. (vo) verizon small business days are back. and there's never been a better time to switch! get our best offers of the year on business internet. help your business stay ahead with the reliable connection your business deserves. book your appointment today. and switch to the network america relies on. verizon. [ music playing ] when we first arrived at st. jude, it was just claire and i. she was still recovering from her brain surgery. and side effects of that surgery

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