this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. ♪ ♪ today on the program, understanding russia. on the war in ukraine, vladamir putin said this week that his military would fight with all of their means at its disposal, but it's going to take a while. also, moscow's prisoner swap with washington. brittney griner for infamous arms dealer viktor bout. a fair trade? >> having home. >> i ask two of the best russian experts. and, here in germany. dozens arrested, including a german aristocrat and former

member of parliament. mixed in allegedly are elements of qanon and a german conspiracy group that believes the state of germany is actually a corporation. what in the world is going on in deutscheland? we'll ask an expert. then, is the tide turning in iran? this week, a former iranian president called on the current regime to take a softer approach and recognize where their government has gone wrong. i talk to an iranian actress and activist about what is happening on the ground. but first, here is my take. the united states and europe find themselves in a closer alliance than at any point in many decades. france, for example, has long

been the european nation most reluctant to play junior partner in an american-led enterprise. in his fir yearses in office, emmanuel macron described nato has brain dead, and declaring his greatest priority to be developing europe's strategic autonomy, something he defined as separate from the united states. contrast that with macron's remarks in november of this year, when he talked about nato as a corner stone of french and european security. while in washington last week, he described a new goal for the continent as strategic intimacy with washington, and spoke of the need for deeper corporation. when the french president starts sounding like the british prime minister, it's worth paying attention. and it's not just macron. germany's olaf schulz has

sounded a wall for western unity. for those wondering if germany's declared shift in policy was a momentary reaction to russia's invasion of ukraine, he declares we are at the end of an era of peace, underlining the creation of a $100 billion fund to upgrade the german armed forces, which he called the starkest change in german security policy since 1955. the break was so dramatic, that germany had to amend its constitution to make it possible. the tectonic shift has been triggered by the russian invasion, but it's also a response to the dawning of a new age of great power competition. a recognition that the rules-based international order built by the united states and europe, is in danger of crumbling, as countries like

russia and china and others break those rules. push for their own unilateral advantage and precipitate a return to a world where might makes right. the russian invasion explains much of this. but the biden administration deserves much credit for how it has handled that challenge. until now, washington has managed to rally large parts of the world to oppose putin's axw aggr aggression, persuading allies to punish russia and aid ukraine. all this has helped to create a moment of unusual western unity, which could help restore and rebuild a rules-based international system. but these successes can still be squandered by america's own unilateralism and pursuit of narrow self-interests. european leaders have been displayed by how protectionist the biden administration has

turned out to be in its economic policy. putting buy america provisions in spending bills and showering subsidies on green technology produced in the united states. all of these measures are violations of the rules governing governing free trade that washington has sponsored since the 1940s. the tensions are only going to grow, because europe's pain is only going to get worse. facing natural gas prices that are seven times higher and electricity prices ten times higher than in the previous two decades, many european firms are finding they simply cannot compete. the financial times reports that there is a genuine risk of the

de-industrialization of germany. auto manufacturing and other manufacturers move overseas to the u.s. or china. europeans see this as rank american hypocrisy. as the pain for ordinary europeans grows and as companies move production to america, the friction will make it harder to get sustained cooperation from europe on russia and they will be less likely to take a tough stand on china, a market that will become increasingly vital to the economic future. as europe and others start retaliating against american protectionism with their own, the open international system will start shutting down. now, when people like me raise objections to protectionism and economic nationalism, we are often dismissed as being naive about the domestic politics of this issue. democrats are doing this, so the argument goes, to help american

workers and stem the tide of right-wing populism. the trouble with the argument is that the working class has abandoned the democratic party, largely on cultural issues. it's true elsewhere, as well. look at france, where workers are coddled, or sweden with its generous welfare and training programs. both have growing right wing populist parties, fueled by issues like education, race, and immigration. assuming that people can be swayed from their fervently held beliefs because of a few government subsidies might be the more naive view. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington post column this week. and let's get started. ♪ ♪

on wednesday, in a meeting with russia's human rights council, vladamir putin said of his war in ukraine, it's going to take a while. later when pressed on the use of nuclear weapons, putin said russia wouldn't brandish them like a razor, but wouldn't commit to not using them first. and said that the risk of nuclear war was rising. i wanted to talk to two people who have spent decades studying russia, and both have new books about the war. duke harding is a reporter for the guardian and his latest book is "invasion." owen matthews also joins me. you've been in kherson and ukraine very recently and spent a lot of time there. what is your sense of the state of the war in this sense, which is, you always hear about the ukrainians having extraordinary

morale. they're fighting for their country, for democracy, and the russians don't know what they're fighting for. so when you've been there, this question is a testament of morale, where do you think it stands. >> i agree with that. you talk to any ukrainian soldier, they all say they're fighting for their country and so on. and the russians, it's not entirely clear what it's all about. in the beginning, it was about de- de-nazifying ukraine, then saving the donbas and the east of the country. and now putin talking about a very long war. but no one -- i was in kyiv on february 24th, when most people thought the ukrainian capital would fall, including the government. we've come such a long way in ten months, the point where ukraine has evicted russia from half the territory it seized. and now my sense is we'll push

forward next year and in winter, perhaps in the south, less so in the east. this is a dynamic situation, with both sides dug in for the long haul. >> owen, you have been to russia several times after the war began. what is your sense of the mood in russia? obviously, it's a little bit subjective. you're not seeing the whole country. but what is your sense? >> you're right. i see -- i've been to moscow three times, most recently there in mid october. the bizarre fact of the matter is, there is no sense whatsoever that you are in the capital of a country that is fighting the biggest war in the 21st century. right up until september 21st, when putin announced mobilization. until that moment, the war was completely invisible. deliberately so. in the first week of the war when i was there, there was

little bit of a wave of public patriotism. and that quickly disappeared. and the state of the russian people is essentially those who -- a small minority is in despair and they have run for the exits, about 500,000 have gone to now, you know, to -- wherever they can get to basically. but for the vast majority, they're either too poor to leave or too rich to leave. they have too much to lose. and the predominant mood among the elite members, the sort of upper middle class and government connected bureaucratic people is sort of quiet despair and denial and basically they just don't want to know. >> look, what do you think happens? you mentioned that the ukrainians are going to push forward. but they are going to start getting to those parts of the donbas, which are really -- i

don't want to say pro-russian, but have mixed feelings. this is why russia was able to take them in 2014 so easily, as with crimea. these are largely russian speaking. many of those people thought the ukrainian government discriminated against them. "the new york times" had a good story on one of these towns which has been liberated where half the people were glad they were liberated, half the people are apprehensive about it. >> it's complicated. we have to acknowledge that everyone speaks russian in ukraine and i speak russian all the time in kyiv. it's not a problem. in 2014, the sort of russian-backed milltists seized luhansk, and there was a pro-russian group, but plenty of

pro-ukrainians, many were driven out or silenced. listening to the mood in kyiv right now is vehement. so many people have died. so much has been lost. almost 500 kids have been killed. cities like mariupol have been pulverized by russian aviation and russian bombs. and there is no mood for, for, for dealing, for negotiations with putin. they're determined to liberate everything, including those areas we're talking about in the east. and it also includes crimea. i think it's going to be a really interesting point, let's say ukraine comes close to crimea. is that a point that washington, whether it's the biden administration or some other administration, phones up zelenskyy and said time to stop and settle, because the ukrainians are determined to cary on. it's a question now for the west, how far does the west back ukraine? until the end or short of that? >> and owen, from your sense, and in your book, you spent a

lot of time talking about the kind of -- the mentality that let putin to adopt these fairly extreme views on ukraine. is it possible that putin is going to get to a point where he will be willing to negotiate? >> i think the issue for putin is that he just wants -- he is willing to throw as much at this war as it takes to not lose it. and he's -- it's very clear when you talk to people who, you know, second, third-tier people in that kremlin administration, they all assume that the west is going to lose interest. and that's not totally irrational by the way, because that's what happened before. that's the problem with this war, is putin has seen the future will be like the past. in the past, they took crimea in 2014. a year later, angela merkel was

signing a $10 billion pipeline bill. we have to take a break. we'll get back to that. but also the other big news out of russia this week, the prisoner swap with the u.s. the notorious arms dealer viktor bout for the wnba star brittney griner. who got the better deal? nina has a plan based on what mattersrs most to her. and she can simply focus on right now. that's the planning effect. from fidelity. i brought in ensure m max protein with 30 grams of protein. those who tried me felt more energy in just two weeks. uhhhh... here, i' take that. [woo hoo!] ensure max protein, with 30 grams protein, one gram of sugar and nutrients r immune health.

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- [announcer] do you have an invention idea but don't know what to do next? call invent help today. they can help you get started with your idea. call now 800-710-0020. after news broke thursday morning of a u.s.-russian prisoner swap, a senior white house official told cnn it was a painful decision for joe biden. there had been two high profile americans wrongly detained by moscow. wnba star brittney griner, and former u.s. marine paul whelan.

but only griner was on a plane out of russia on thursday, leaving whelan behind. in exchange, the u.s. released viktor bout, a notorious arms dealer. we bring back our experts to talk about this swap. luke, what do you think? was it a -- it feels a little unbalanced. >> it was a bad deal for the u.s., unfortunately, and a good keel for russia. we're talking about a, a basketball star who was framed by their spy agency, versus a prolific arms dealer who has committed alleged crimes all over the world. i think the other sort of thing from a u.s. perspective is the precedent it sets. essentially vladamir putin believes anything can be traded. any deal can be made. when the west talks about human rights, it's hypocritical, and it's all about power and money. and this confirms the sort of

rather cynical view that we have something, you have something, we trade. of course, it sets a precedent for ukraine. putin would like nothing better than to sit down with joe biden, decide the future of ukraine, decide the future of eastern and central your as if it's the 19th century, with a map where they draw, you have this, i have this. and he thinks everything can be negotiated that way or it's a conspiracy. it's his classic kgb brain, and this is a moment involving alleged kbg operative who has been sitting in jail for 12 years. >> that image of them drawing up a map, that is what stalin and churchill did, they drew up a map and assigned percentages of innuancfluence that russia and u.s. would have. >> this is a hostage situation, blackmail. russia has been at it for a long time.

it's classic cold war, dirty diplomacy. >> you wrote in your book, your -- >> my father. >> he was part of a swap. >> my mother was russian. he was only allowed out of the soviet union in 1969 after six years of trying, because she was add d in the same kind of swap. nothing has changed since. that's the way the kgb men who run russia roll. >> luke, when owen is making the point that putin's strategy is to hope the west gets tired. i would say also the price pour the ordinary europeans, the energy hikes and all that, backs unbearable. >> i just want to follow up on that and say one of putin's mistakes is that ukraine of 2022 was the ukraine of 2014, was there was a minority to russia.

the great irony is putin consolidated ukraine as a state, a nation and a people and those have melted away. and he thought the west would not do much like last time. what we have seen is an unprecedented anti-kremlin coalition. despite their calculation we the west would flee, it's been robust. we've seen a restoration of leadership under the biden administration. the germans have abandoned pacifism. nato has been bolstered by the swedes and finns joining. it's been a real turning point in history. actually, putin, after two decades plus, is out of touch is reality and behind the curve as to where we are now. >> how does this end? >> i think, sadly, it ends like every other war ends, which doesn't end until victory. there's going to be a

negotiation eventually and acknowledge that the ukrainians have been determined to fight to the end, and fatally and dangerously for ukraine. and there comes a point where russia has enough manpower and weaponry just to make any further military advance bloody. that's what mark milley said. it's not the world we want to live in, but we do live in. mark milley predicted a long, bloody stalemate. i think that's probably what is going to happen, just because of the volume of russian military and hardware and sort of meat that they can throw into the grinder. >> we have to leave it there. we will be back. this was fascinating. thank you both. next on "gps," the headlines seemed like they were straight out of fiction. but dozens were arrested this week for allegedly plotting to overthrow the government of germany. we'll explain the story behind the headlines in a moment.

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what do three police officers, a judge, and a minor german nobleman all have in xhx common? they were all arrested in connection to a plot to overthrow the jgerman governmen and establish a monarchy. they're suspected to be part of a movement known as the citizens of the reich. they believe that german's government is a corporation set up by allied governments after

the second world war. is this a january 6th moment for germany? joining me now is peter neumann from kings college, london, an expert on global terror. peter, let me ask you first to just explain to us who are these people and what do they believe? when we see something like this in germany, we imagine that this is, you know, the sort of neonazis, or this feels to me almost like babylon, berlin, that wonderful series is about to have season four preview in a week. it feels like the preview began one week early. >> yes. i think the closest comparison in an american context is probably the sovereign citizens. they're basically espousing similar beliefs. they don't believe the state exists or it is legitimate. they produce their own passports. they refuse to pay taxes and

produce their own driving licenses. their narrative is basically they want to go back to monarchy. monarchy ceased to exist in germany in 1918. they want to re-create that system, because they say that every german state that has come into existence, including the third reich, the nazi government, was illegitimate. they are far right. they want to create an authoritarian government. but they are not neatly fitting into the neonazi category, because they want to create a different kind of authoritarian government. >> now, to what extent does this say something about the stability of german politics that we have taken for granted? we think of germany being the most stable country in the west. unlike almost every other western country, there is no significant far-right populist movement. you know, the afd is a small

party in germany. does this -- should this shatter that sense of what is going on in germany? >> well, i think there have always been people around like this. i mean, that movement came into existence in the 1980s. it didn't, however, have a lot of followers until ten years ago. especially during the pandemic, this movement took off to some extent. there has been like in america and other european countries, a lot of interest in conspiracy theorys and people asking is the state legitimate, are we governed by a global, secretive cabial. germany has experienced that like a lot of other countries. the secenter right in germany i

completely against this, so they do not have support within the main stream of the political system. >> and it's a fairly small movement, i think 20,000. but to what extent did they look at something like january 6th and get inspired, do we know? >> that certainly was an inspiration for them. it has to be said, they have 20,000 supporters. around 10% of the german domestic intelligence agency, around 2,000 people are supposed to be potentially violent. what's important about this movement is in contrast to the rest of german society, they are heavily armed. they are people who are hoarding arms in the basements of their houses, waiting for day x, just like the qanon movement in america, and they've all been watching the storming of the capitol. that's what they were trying to re-create, trying to do the same thing. now, i don't believe for one second they would have succeeded. but they would have caused a lot of damage, both to people, but

also to the trusted institutions as a consequence. >> so is this something that is more akin to qanon? slightly more visible version of qanon, and are there any connections between the two? >> well, it is, i think, quite similar in the sense that it's driven by conspiracy theorists that are so laughable, if you listen to them as an outsider, you think this can't be true, they must be nutcases. but it is a serious political movement, at least that's how they consider themselves. they are heavily armed and listening heavily to qanon. german is the most translated into language of qanon content, and you would have never thought this would take off outside of the united states, but it did in germany. they are closely following qanon and trying to imitate it to some extent. >> peter, this is fascinating.

thank you so much. you've really shed a lot of light on a puzzling, bizarre story. >> thank you, fareed. next on "gps," iran has started executing protestors. will this disturbing escalation rise up the people in the streets or take them off the streets? answers when we come back. avoiding triggers but can't keep migraines away? qulipta® can help prevent migraines. you can't always prevent what's going on outside... th's why qulipta® helps what's going on inside. qulipta® gets right toork. in a 3-mon study, qulipta® gnificantly reduced monthly migraine days and the majority of people . qulipta® blocks cgrp a protein believed to be a cause of migraines. qulipta® is a preventive treatment for episodic migraine. most common side effects are

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nazanin boniadi. nazanin, tell us first what you think these announced executions and the actual execution to the situation on the ground? >> people are outrainged, faree. for every person is killed, a thousand people will rise up behind them is the slogan. that's why we have seen these protests last for three months now and no sign of slowing down. so every image, every report that we're hearing and seeing of people being executed wrongfully killed is basically galvanizing iranian society at large to protest the government. >> is the government making any concessions? because we heard about the disbanding of the morality police. but that turns out to be something of a red herring, right? >> that's right. it wasn't a legal edict. it was something that was just floated by an official that had no real purview or jurisdiction to make that call.

it should be something the ministry of interior is deciding on, and there have been no changes inside iran. it came at a time conveniently for the regime just before the nationwide strikes that were taking place and a call for the islamic republic to be expelled from the united nations. so these things seem to be strategic and haphazard at the same time. >> do you get the sense there are splits in the regime in the last time in iran when the green movement came into being around that contested election, there were reformist members of the government, of the regime, who seem to be calling for, you know, they seemed to be breaking with the regime. could you imagine that somebody like the former president who was regarded as a reformist, or

zarif, the former foreign minister, regarded as a moderate, do you think they might peel off, or they're all in this struggle for survive altogether? >> i think the latter, fareed. we've now had a 43-year case study on the islamic republic. the slogans on the streets say it best, the people are saying they want this regime gone. and frankly, i think the statements by the former president where he said that a change in this system is neither possible nor desirable goes against everything the protestors are demanding. so there's not just a disillusionment with the movement, there's animosity towards them for perpetuating the regime and the brutalities. >> a new book out that tries to examine when do dictatorships fall. one of the points it makes is one of the central conclusion is that regimes come to power

through revolution are the hardest to dislodge, because i suppose they know -- they know what to do in terms of a mixture of repression and opening up some escape valves here and there, and exiling dissidents. so when you think about that and you think about this regime that has so much control and has been around for 43 years, is it realistic to think that these protests could actually snowball into something much, much bigger and much more deadly? >> that's a very valid question, fareed. no popular uprising has been predicted accurately. and that's possibly because human behavior is unpredictable. in a situation like this, it's very easy to liken it to the arab spring and the outcomes there, or sri lanka perhaps. but i would encourage a little less cynicism, and maybe what we can strive for in support of this movement, because the margin between success and failure is very slim.

we as the international community have that ability to tip the scale in the favor of the protestors and the pro democracy and freedom in a slr way we did for south africa. if you look at the david and goliath revolutions, we have to have that hope and keep hope alive for the protestors. >> what do you want the west in particular to do? >> i think what we can do is -- i think michael mcfall, u.s. ambassador to russia, he said it was an arms controller who ended the fall of the soviet union, it was freedom fighters, basically of soviet states . and in iran, it won't be

american or western diplomats who cause an end to the cold war with iran, it will be the small d democrats on the ground in iran. so our job is to empower the small d democrats inside iran to achieve self-determination. >> and do that by? >> there are a number of ways. the human rights council was a very good first step. strategic sanctions have to continue. my hope is we sanction the supreme leader. we haven't done that yet. and there are a number of other ways. why are the children of these regime officials living freely and comfortably in democratic countries, while people who need refuj in the west don't get the same? so we have to make a clear distinction of who we're supporting, and stop supporting and empowering the regime in that way, and start empowering civil society in iran through internet access and things like that. >> fascinating to hear you, and

you have extraordinary courage to be doing this. >> thank you. >> thank you for being here. next on "gps," as china emerges from draconian covid restrictions, i will explain why the country is at a dangerous moment. nina's got a lot of ideas for the future. and since anyone can create a free plan at fidelity, nina has a plan baseon what matters most to her. and she can simplyocus on right now. that's the planning effect. from fidelity.

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and now for the last note. remember that idea of herd immunity? at the beginning of the pandemic, anti-lockdown voices wanted to let the virus run free. they argued the population would build so much immunity that covid would stop spreading and life could go back to normal. it was a reckless idea at the time, when there were no vaccines or good treatments. but today, most countries have built up protection through a combination of vaccination and exposure.

it isn't exactly herd immunity, but it's enough that the virus, while still spreading, doesn't pose a colossal threat to the population. in china, however, the situation is totally different. tough and effective covid restrictions have kept people from getting sick. but as a result, also from acquiring natural immunity. there isn't enough protection from vaccines either, particularly among older people. and now, after a stunning wave of protests, china is suddenly loosening its restrictive covid policies. this could get very dangerous. if china ends its zero covid policy, the economist estimates the country will hit 45 million new daily infections after just one month. virtually everyone would get infected. 680,000 people would die, assuming enough icu beds for

everyone, which there definitely are not. another model reviewed by the ft, predicts 1 million deaths. others go higher to 1.6 million or 1.7 million dead. now, it may not get that bad if china reopens gradually and uses masks and vaccines to gradually flatten the curve. but just to put this in context and china's figures can't be completely trusted, china has reported a few thousand covid deaths over the whole pandemic. within months, it could rival america's death toll of 1 million. the big question is, why china stuck to the testing and lockdown strategy for so long while the rest of the world moved on? one lopsided reason is vaccine nationalism. two doses of western vaccine are far superior the two doses of the chinese vaccine. but xi jinping is too proud to

import western vaccines. so he's been playing for time while china could develop its own mrna formula. but that's not the whole story. chinese vaccines are hardly useless. in fact, a study in hong kong found that three doses gave full protection against severe disease. but getting the whole population up to three doses would require a major vaccine push. and china's zero covid strategy was so extensive that it sapped the state's resources for vaccinating the population. mass ptesting carried a cost of nearly 1.5% gdp. china ran quarantine facilities rather than letting people quarantine at home. another problem has been vaccine hesi hesitancy, particularly with older people. china did not follow western

nations in mandating shots. local officials floated a mandate and quickly dropped it after a backlash. senior citizens have partly resisted vaccines because of past scandals of tainted vaccines and drugs, and with a zero covid policy in place, they worried about side effects of the vaccine than contracting the virus. plus, in the west, the vaccines were seen as the way to end lockdowns. in china, there was no sense that vaccination was a ticket to freedom. as the zero covid policy has been lifted, the government is making a renewed vaccination push. immunity isn't china's only issue. i mentioned icus. this the event of uncontrolled spread, china would need 7 to 16 times the number of existing icu beds to accommodate the peak number of patients. the country doesn't have enough supplies of anti-viral drugs and rushing to increase stockpiles

of those. the whole point of the lockdowns was to buy time, to for thtify vaccinate the population. xi jinping squandered his time, and alas, the chinese people will pay the price. that's it for this week. thanks to all of you for being part of my program. ly see you next week. >> tech: when you get a chip in your windshield... trust safelite. this couple was headed to the farmers market... when they got a chip. they drove to safelite for a sameay repair. and with their insurance, it was no cost to them. >> womanreally? >> tech: that's service the y you need it. >> sinrs: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪ get refunds.com powered by innovation refunds can help your business get a payroll tax refund,

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