this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the

united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. ♪ ♪ today on the program -- president putin's most formidable political rival was locked two ed up two years ago. but he still has a voice, his message carried on by his inner circle that inspires russia's opposition movement. i have an exclusive interview with his daughter, dasha, on the state of her father and his mission to bring democracy to russia. and what might befall the world in 2023? ian bremmer will lay out the biggest political risk of the new year. >> the biggest risk is putin, agenting as the most powerful rogue state in history. >> and we'll have the economic

outlook. but first, here is my take. it was hard not to be fixated on the drama that unfolded in the house of representatives this week, when the republican party had a nervous breakdown in full public view. this crisis was entirely of the party's own making. for decades, it has whipped its base into a righteous fury, by promising radical policies that offer emotional satisfaction to hardline constituents, from rolling back social security, to defaulting on the national debt, to eliminating whole government agent sis. but because these policies are totally unworkable, they never happened. the lessons of the base has internalized it was constantly being betrayed by cowardly moderates. the solution is to maintain a vice grip on the speaker, ensuring he will do what the hardliners want. this is a recipe for permanent

blackmail and constant chaos. the republican party struggles are severe. newt gingrich said that the party is in its worst shape in almost six decades. but it is not alone. in many countries around the world, populists are flailing. look at britain, where brexit, perhaps the ultimate 21st century populist cause, has caused havoc within the conservative party, which used to be described as the world's oldest most successful political party. britain has had five prime ministers in the six years since 2016. the prior five prime ministers spanned more than 30 years. the self-defeating decision to exit its largest market, the european union, continues to depress the country's economic prospects, and britain remains the weakest of the g7 economies. in the g20, only russia is projected to do worse than britain in the near future.

the story is similar in south america. even though that continent has been swept up in populism from the right and the left, neither version is doing very well. in brazil, bolsonaro lost his bid for re-election, but the winner, the former president, will find it hard to implement some of his more radical promises. in chile, left wing populists coalesced around a plan to redo the constitution that many regarded as extreme and unworkable. in the ensuing referendum, 86% of the people of chile turned out rejecting the new constitution by a whopping 62%. on the other side of the globe in australia, right-wing politicians had embraced trump-style policies and rhetoric. under the prime minister, they spoke a language that mirrored the grievance politics of older white voters and scared the

country about the dangers of immigration, crime, and so-called african gangs were marauding through victoria. but he bungled the covid pandemic and had little success with the economy. in the recent elections, australia's conservatives suffered their worst loss ever. and the even more extreme united australia and one-nation parties did poorly, as well. the new labor prime minister currently enjoys an extraordinary high approval rating. why is this happening? well, populism thrives as an opposition movement. it encourages fear and conspiracy theorys about nefarious ruling elites and promises emotional promises, such as ban immigration, stop trade. but the shallowness of this is exposed once in government and leaders can't blame others as

easily. the non-populist forces are sensible and get things done and defang some of the populist right. look where joe biden's style and policymaking have giving him large legislative accomplishments without triggering a electoral backlash. he benefits from being an old white man. had barack obama enacted the same policies as joe biden, i have a feeling we would hear much more talk of his dangerous socialism and un-american policies. the poster child for populism has always been argentina. juan perone and his wife built a powerful mass movement that promised to become the voice of the people. in fact, they destroyed argentina's economy. what had once been the world's wealthest countries became a

basket case economy. since then, they have promised the people of argentina the moon, run you have debt, and routinely defaulted. but now things have soured for them. prompting the economist toss observe that argentina's populist movement is at its lowest end. the former president told a magazine, it is the main culprit of the situation of argentina, saying today, we are in our worst moment. these trends are not permanent. the world's complicated problems always allow for someone that proposes answers that are simple, seductive, and wrong. but let us hope that 2023 will see populism exposed for the sham that it is. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington coast post col.

and let's get started. putin out. that was the slogan at a protest in moscow in december of 2011. the bbc called it the biggest anti-government there since the fall of the soviet union. prior to the rally, its organizer was a man living outside russian circles, a blogger named alexy novelny. he told reporters that russia was ripe for revolution, and putin's party was one of swindlers and thieves. he became known world wise as a thorn in putin's side, always being arrested or investigated or tried for one charge or another. charges novelny says were trumped up. but he agitated the elite as he

agitated for democracy. then this happened. those were navalny's groans after being poisoned with a chemical agent called novavicho. cnn found evidence that a russian spy team had been trailing navalny for years. five years later, navalny returned to his homeland, having mostly recovered from the attack, and knowing he faced prison time in russia for a prior conviction. he was arrested on arrival. today, navalny is in a maximum security prison where he is in and out of solitary confinement, has little contact with his lawyers, and can only communicate with his family by letters, many of which disappear enroute to their intended recipient. he is the subject of an extraordinary documentary from cnn films called "simply

navalny." as award season approaches, the film has generated a ton of buzz and will air on cnn on january 14th at 9:00 p.m. it's also available on hbo max. navalny's brave daughter, dasha, joins me now exclusively. dasha, welcome. >> thank you for having me. >> so tell us what is the latest on your father's condition? he is in -- i imagine russian prisons are not that great. >> yes. no one wants to be many a prison overall, but russian prisons take it to whole other level. my father is currentry, for try months now, he's been in solitary confinement at a penal colony. it's a small cell, 7 x 8 feet. and it's -- it can be called a cage for someone who is of his 6'3" height. he only has one stool sewed to

the floor, and he is allowed to have a mug, a toothbrush, and one book. currently, he has some bad back problems, and he's been trying to get in touch with doctors, and he's been complaining a lot to the prison guards and the prison administration. but the prison doctor visited him once, prescribed him with injections that are not really helping him, and they're not giving us the medication name and diagnosis, or even refusing to tell us the name of the doctor who is treating him. >> everybody i have talked to who has been through solitary confinement says it is hell. it is the worst form of punishment. and for three months you say he's been there? >> yes. well, people -- he's been in solitary confinement nine times now. what they do to say that he's

not in solitary confinement for such a long time, is they put him in for a week, then take him out for one day, and then say well, now you violated another rule, so we're going to put you back into solitary confinement. all together since august now, so for almost four months now, he's been in kolsolitary confinement. >> there's this amazing moment in the film where your father is impersonating the national security adviser to putin, and he asks the people who he thinks poisoned him, and the guy explains what he did. [ speaking non-english ]

>> as a dramatic moment in the movie, it's amazing. but how did you react when you seen the government of rush ai is now admitting that they were basically trying to poise oon t kill your father. >> right, well, the thing about the russian government, i would say putin's government officials, is that they've been unlawfully doing everything they wanted for so long, that they -- their cockiness caught up to them. and one of the people didn't even think that there was a

possibility for not a government official to be calling them and asking them about this. they didn't even think it was possible for us to investigate the poisoning, and find out what really happened. so i'm -- i'm happy that he spoke out about it. he didn't speak out about it, but he -- >> accidently. >> yes, accidently spilled everything. but i'm -- you know, it's like we said in the movie, it's scary, because he's probably now in hiding or killed because -- >> because of that conversation. >> of course. >> and you've dealt with this your whole life. your mother was arrested. you've had uncles in jail. what is it like growing up? i'm thinking you as the stanford undergraduate, and people at stanford are sitting around worrying about what isdeliver a. how were you able to maintain

the ability to be, you know, fully at stanford while you have this whole other thing going on in the back of your head? >> it's a strange situation. i am definitely managing it more now that i've grown up, because in middle school, you know, i was still trying to figure out what i wanted to do with my life while balancing my dad running for president and my dad being arrested. but like i said, before having this incredible support system that's been around me my entire life, my grandgrandparents, who very supportive of my dad, and my mom was a champion and so compassionate and incredible. and a father who is not only a great politpolitician, but

amazing, warm, smart dad, it makes it easier to navigate the world of politics when you're 21. we'll be back in a moment with more of the story of the navalnies. after almost being called, alexei navalny decided to go back to russia, where he had at best a very uncertain fate. did his daughter counsel him not to go? i'll ask her on the other side of the break. uhhhh..... here, i'll take that. [woo hoo!] ensure maxax protein, with 30 grams of protein, one gram of sugar and nutrients for immune health.

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it starts with our free online hearing test. from there you can fine tune your settings with your remote audiology team seven days a week so your hearing aids work when it matters most. jabra enhance select hearing aids cost thousands less than you'd expect. so hearing well is easier than ever. try it risk free for 100 days. visit jabraenhance.com we are back with dasha, daughter of the jailed russian opposition leader, alexei navalny. cnn will air a film about his life called simply "navalny" next saturday january 14th at

9:00 p.m. so dasha, i want to take you to that moment where you realize after he has been arrested, imprisoned, they have attempted to poison him, he's been if a coma, he comes out of this. he decides to go back to russia. he must have realized that what is going to happen when he goes back to russia is not good. he's going to get arrested, they tried to kill him just months earlier. at that point, did you tell him, dad, don't go back? you're comfort ably here in the west. >> well, of course, there was this little voice in the back of my head saying, you know, cuff him to your hand, never let go. you want your dad being by your side. but we never had a family

conversation of whether he is going to go back. it is something we accepted as a family. we knew he would want to go back. he's a russian politician. we're a russian family. you can't do russian politics from abroad. you can't help a country being more prosperous and free from being in the western country and living in the flat in new york and doing politics like that. >> he's a great russian -- i mean, this is obvious, but what might be worth reminding is he loves russia. he adores russian culture. >> yes, yes. he loves russian literature. he gave that love to me. as a whole family, whenever we travel somewhere for summer vacation when i was little, we would always rate the cities, and moscow would always be at

the top. because it's our home, we love it. my whole family is there. my grand parents are there. my uncle is there. i -- whenever we have -- it makes -- it makes this work so much easier knowing that we're patriotic towards our country, and that we actually love the culture and the people, and i grew up in moscow and i want to go back. >> now, you haven't seen your father in a while. the last time was -- you visited him in jail? >> yes, i visited him in jail for my birthday a year and a half ago, september 2021. and it was -- it was the second time i visited him in prison. the first time was as he was going through a hunger strike, so it was -- it was definitely nerve-racking, a child seeing

their parent being imprisoned, not looking healthy. but the last time i saw him, he looked better. at least he was eating. so that made me happy. and the last time i talked to him was a year ago on new years. they allowed him to have a five-minute phone call. but you know how you probably have seen in the spy movies, whenever there is a muffing sound, you know it's being taped. so for the whole phone call, it was going back and forth with hello, can you hear me? hello, can you hear me, and then the muffing sound. but i'm happy that the attorneys are getting to see him. i'm definitely -- that's something that is making me very

happy is that there is people who, you know, there to see that he is not doing terribly. although his prison conditions are far worse, and getting worse by the day. >> so i doubt very much that russian media will air this interview. but there are ways that things get around. if your father were to be watching, what would you say to him? >> i would say that we're there for him, and that we're doing everything we can possible to get him out and change the regime and, you know, educate people, and that we're continuing the work that he started a long time ago, and that he shouldn't give up, and i'm proud of him. that's the most important thing,

i'm proud of my dad. >> dasha navalny, pleasure to have you on. next on "gps," what will 2023 bring for politics around the world, good, bad, and ugly? i ask ian bremmer, who has been looking into his crystal ball. [♪] if you have diabetes, it's important to have confidence in the nutritional drink you choose. try boost glucose control®. it's clinical shown to help manage blood sugar levels and contains high quality protein to help manage hunger and pport muscle health. trboost® today. (fisher investments) in this market, you'll find fisher investments is different than other money managers. (other money manager) different how? aren't we all just looking for the hottest stocks? (fisher investments) nope. we use diversified strategies to position our clients' portfolios for their long-term goals. (other money manager) but you still sell investments that generate high commissions for you, right? (fisher investments) no, we don't sell commission products. we're a fiduciary, obligated to act in our client's best interest.

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a new year means a fresh start, right? that can be true for you and me with resolutions of the like, but not for global politics. for starters, the war in ukraine has been heating up. and the threat of china invading taiwan didn't disappear when the clock struck 12:00 on the 31st. so what are the biggest rivesksf 2023? joining me now is ian bremmer. ian, without further ado, what is the biggest risk the world faces in 2023? >> the biggest risk is clearly putin acting as a rogue, the most powerful rogue state we've ever dealt with in history. but more broadly, the top risk this year is all about a small group of individuals that don't

have checks and balances, they don't have good information coming to them. they can make really big mistakes that are very disruptive. and putin is the most emblematic example of that. but there are others. xi jinping, the iranian supreme leader and a lot of individuals in the technology space. very different when we were worried that democracies were falling apart. this is a different year. >> you talk about technology, obviously you're thinking of musk. do you think in general big tech, because of that, there is a certain kind of dictatorship? mark zuckerberg runs facebook without any checks or balances. do you think that has led to a lot of bad decision making? >> i think it's led to a lot of decision making that is deeply dangerous for civil society and democracy. i think about us growing up and doing our ph.d.s at the end of the cold war. back then, the united states was the leader exporter of

democracy. sometimes with bad outcomes, but today, 30 years later, the united states is the principal exporter of tools that destroy democracy, because these tools -- >> you're talking social media mostly. >> i'm talking about a.i. algorithms, i'm talking about increasingly the ability through these tools, for you and i not to be able to differentiate between a real human being and an a.i. bot. and the polarization and disinformation that comes from that. yes, on the social media platforms, but it's the a.i. algorithms driving this. this is deeply destructive of democracies, and it also helps to strengthen and consolidate authoritarian regimes. so it's a real problem, even though it's not the intention of people in charge of these things. >> you're right, that a.i. accelerates it, but social media has this tendency to allow you to find your group of crazies or

fanatics, and expands that power. so look at what's happening in congress, with the craziness the republican party is going through. one of the reasons this is happening is that the way you get famous in congress, in the united states congress these days, is not by serving on committees, doing a good job, pleasing the leadership, moving up, it's by being great on social media. you can raise funds for the party, you become a celebrity. so it's that same tendency that destroys hierarchy, that destroys order, destroys institutions. >> and yet it's not where the population is. the united states population, like canada, like europe, like japan, is a bell curve. we see that on issues like abortion. most americans don't want abortion to be illegal and every case, they want it safe, rare,

and legal. and 13, 15 weeks is where we have hit. unfortunately, the politics moved in a more extreme direction. social media, and athlga rhythms making them move politics. the united states is not at risk for this. it's the weaker democracies in the most danger. >> you talk about an energy crunch. help us understand what is going to -- what is the world of energy going to look like with all the problems that we have, the russia/ukraine war, all the rest of it? >> two big issues in 2023. the first is the fact that the europeans are fundamentally decoupled from russia, especially when it comes to gas. it means that their input costs are structurally so much higher for the foreseeable future, from

the united states, from the western hemisphere and much of asia. what that means is de-industrialization. a lot of their corporations are going to leave and not come back. it's a real negative impact. second, the europeans have the money when things get ugly to pay for the inputs to ensure their working class is taken care of. the developing world does not. if you're not a commodity exporter in the developing world, you face a serious fiscal crunch, lots more social instability, maybe a financial crises. >> i want to end on that point. you talk about arrested global development. this is something that strikes me. you know, we have spent the last few years talking about oh, you know, we overdid globalization, we overdid market reforms. the problem is, the only way to grow, the only way to raise incomes is by embracing markets and trade and all that, and all of these developments, the populist wave that has shut down a lot of that, and brought

barriers up, you can see the data. it's the poorest people in the poorest countries in the world that are struggling. >> particularly the women. through the invasion, through the populist backlash, you have these realities that the poorest countries in the world cannot take care of the poor. so we are now seeing move more people into poverty, move them out of the schools and even moving them into sexual and human trafficking. nobody wants to see a world that looks like it's anti-progress. yet for a majority of the world's 8 billion in 2023, progress is not for them. >> ian bremmer, always good to talk to you. >> happy new year. next on "gps," we look at the economic outlook for 2023, when we come back. supply fuel for immune cells and sustain tissue health. ensure with twenty-five vitamins and minerals, and ensure complete

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2022 was a rocky year for

the economy. growth slowed, inflation ran rampant, and the stock market plummeted. what will the economy look like in 2023? investor and writer has a new piece in the financial times laying out some big shifts he expects to see this year and beyond. welcome. >> thanks, fareed. >> so the concern here is that all of the rules of the last decade have been overturned. why? what do you think is happening? >> well, i think that the main event from an economic perspective is that the era of easy money with zero interest rates, quantitative easing, that's come to an abrupt end. so many of the rules that apply, deficits get away with it, because funding was relatively easy, the cost of funding was very low, those rules have

changed. many leaders across the world have still not got this memo. they are still trying to spend and still trying to sort of rule as if they're in an easy money era. >> the best example of this is liz truss in britain, right? >> yes. that's the best example and the most prominent example. you have lots of other countries facing the prospect of default. so many countries in africa, even in places such as pakistan, egypt, all these are struggling. and the political leaders in all these countries are being forced to bow to the markets and do what the markets are telling them, which is you have to have fiscal responsibility, or you become an argentina that is kicked off the grid and loses access to funding and markets and become an economic basket case. >> when clinton came to power, that whole white house, 1992, was terrified about the bond

market. james carville used to joke, when i get reincarnated, i want to come back as the bond market because the bond market scares the hell out of everybody. but the bond market is really back, except in the united states, where we seem to think because of the dollar, we can print as much money as we want. but you say we may be at peak dollar. >> yes. there's a lot of hubris on that. but america made a mistake, we're seeing the consequences oh of that. still relatively high inflation, even though it's coming off, and all this monetary tightening. look at the stock market, very tough year in 2022. so i think there are consequences of this, which even america is facing. but yes, we can get away with it, and my warning is, don't be so confident, that we have seen what happened in the uk and what happened in other countries. and the markets get in a mood,

their sentiment can turn very abruptly. the dollar has had incredible value over the last few years, but the season for why the demise of the dollar may have begun. is dollar has peaked against most major currencies. and also, fareed, there is a geopolitical point, which is the fact that even though america used sanctions against russia, but the way it used the sanctions by weaponizing the dollar, that i think will have long-term consequences. so many countries around the world are thinking that they can also -- even though it's irrational fear, but maybe they could face such an event. and so -- >> the only solution is, get out of dollars. >> exactly. in terms of trade directly in your own currency. >> end of big tech. people have been saying every time the tech stocks go down, people say this is the end of

big tech. didn't prove to be the case after the crash in '99 or after the crash in '08. what makes you think this time these companies like apple, microsoft, google, that have so dominated the world, why do you think it's -- they're on the way down? >> fareed, if you look at the list of the top ten companies in the world by market value, at the beginning of each decade, and then you compare it to the subsequent decade, just a decade later, it's fascinating. nine of the top ten companies typically fall off the top ten list. that's what the creative destruction is all about. once you get so such an elevated level, that sews the seeds of your own demise. as an investor, i would not allocate any capital, even though one or two of them will do well and survive. but 80% to 90% of the companies in the top ten list are usually not there a decade later.

i think that process has begun now with higher interest rates. >> and with that same cyclical process, in a sense, you're say thing is an element here, a peak america, and it's now time for the rest of the world, particularly their stocks and things, to rally. explain the logic behind that. >> well, there's one simple statistic out here. america today is about 25% of the global economy. but if you look at america's share in global stock markets, what the value is, 60%. that is way high. so america is punching well above its weight as far as global stock market is concerned. >> america is 4% of the world's population, 25% of the world's economy, economic output. but 60% of the total stock market valuations of all the stock markets in the world put together is just america. >> exactly. i think that this is very telling, because it's not -- a lot of people say america has

always been the world's dominant and great capitalist system. and so that number was 45%, never this high. so the american stock market, in a way relative to the rest of the world, has never been this expensive. >> pleasure to have you on. >> thanks, fareed. next on "gps," when china lifted its draconian covid restrictions, it unleashed a wave of disease across the country. but what does china's reopening mean for the rest of the world? i'll explain when we come back. it's getting a discount on your trip, plus poioints for your future travels. so you can think about the next trip. and the next trip and the next next trip. so wherever you go, you'll know you're getting the most out of your travels and you can keep thinking, “where next?”

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now for the last look. today marks the end of an era in the global pandemic. after two years, nine months, and 11 days of near complete

isolation from the outside world, the government of china finally flung open the country's borders. it's a major piece of the stunning reversal of xi jinping's zero covid policy. gone are mass testing regmens and dra cronian requirements. most of the headlines about this development have focused on the wave of covid cases that has predictably sprung up in the country, overwhelming hospitals and snarling production on factory floors. but china's reopening is bigger than a rash of covid cases. as the economist reports, china's reopening signifies a massive jolt to the global economy. in the near term, economic activity may be slow to rebound, but soon enough, chinese tourists will begin booking

flights and traveling aboard. as a travel expert said, before the pandemic, china was the world's single largest source of international tourists. chinese households saved 1/3 of their income last year, and this year, one estimate has household consumption bouncing back by 9%. the government wants to revive the beleaguered property sector. and if it does, chinese families may start investing in real estate again, which could kick off a burst of construction. factories will reopen and build capacity. investment will rise. business executives will visit the country again. restaurants and shops and cities will all come to life. to understand how big a change all of this will be, look at how depressed the chinese economy has been. gdp growth plummeted from 8.1% in 2021 to around 3% last year. in november, exports fell 8.7%,

compared to the year before. exports to the u.s. fell 25% in the same period. hsbc estimates in the first quarter of 2024, china's xgdp's will account for 2/3 of global growth next year. all of this may seem like good news, but remember, the pandemic has slowed supply chains, and the russian invasion of ukraine has destroyed energy markets. so all this good news could easily turn bad. that's because hundreds of millions of chinese consumers clamoring for global goods and services again would represent a massive rise in demand, that could lead to something we're all familiar with, inflation. look at energy. china is the world's largest importer of world. before the pandemic, it was the largest importer of liquefied

natural gas. but demand for oil went down by 2 million barrels a day during the shanghai lockdown. one places china's consumption of liquefied natural gas down by 30% compared to its long-term average. this was a largely hidden dynamic pushing down inflation. china's lower demand released pressure on the price of oil, gas, and coal. but now, china's demand could grow by an average of 1 million barrels a day according to one estimate noted in "the economist," pushing crude up to over $100. if china is fully opened by mid 2023, energy prices will increase by 20%, and the u.s. consumer price index could go from 3.9% mid year to 5.7% by the end of 2023.

that means that the fed and other central banks would likely respond with more interest rate hikes, which many had hoped would call off this year. of course, none of this is a foregone conclusion, and much will depend on the nature and the scale of the chinese economic recovery. but it's an important reminder of just how large a role china plays in the global economy. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this year. i will see you next week. (woman) what would the ideal weight loss program look like? no hunger, no cravings, no isolation,

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