tv Fareed Zakaria GPS CNN January 29, 2023 7:00am-8:00am PST
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this is "gps" the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you from new york. today on the program, germany will give leopards as america offers the abrams. >> they're the most capable tanks in the world. >> what will the tank deliveries to ukraine mean for the future of its fight? how will russia retaliate for what it sees as a major escala escalation? we'll talk about all of that and more with the new panel. and the new government led by netanyahu is the most far right ever. its first month in office has been marked by provocations and protests and problems. a fight has begun over the power of parliament to overturn the rulings of the nation's highest
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court. would it be a major step back for the middle east's only liberal democracy? i'll talk to a close observer. and we'll bring you an important update on iran. on the anti-regime protests, and the status of the islamic republic's nuclear program. but first, here is my take. what should we think of the fact that donald trump, joe biden and now mike pence have all turned out to have classified material sitting in their houses? before i answer that question. let me tell you a few facts. one 2004 essay put the number of classified pages in existence at about 7.5 billion. in 2012, records were classified at a rate of three per second
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making for an estimated 95 million classifications that year alone. today, no one knows how frequently information is classified. and as of 2019, more than 4 million people are eligible to access classified information. about a third for top secret documents, the highest general classification. the real scandal here is the u.s. government has a totally out of control system of secrets and this is a real danger to the quality of democratic government. let me acknowledge a political point. it is true that people glossed over these issues when donald trump was found to be holding on to classified documents at his mar-a-lago home. but had begun to discuss them now that joe biden also appears to be guilty of the same offense. some of this double standard is political bias. but trump's behavior was also a major issue, particularly his refusal to turn over the
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documents and defied direct requests from the justice department. that is an important difference. though it doesn't change the larger point. given how crazy the classification system is, the wonder is that we don't find more top secret documents littered throughout the houses of government officials. in 1998, then senator daniel patrick moynahan, who served on the select committee wrote a book titled "secrecy, the american experience." and he lamenting the rise of culture of secrecy in american government which he believed was bad for foreign policy and dangerous to democracy. on the first point, moynahan argued that many of the government's biggest mistakes were a result of its reluctance to share information and subject it's analysis to outside criticism. remember that the intelligence community was largely created to assess one question. the nature of the soviet threat.
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it got this wrong. in the late 1950s, for example, it claimed that the soviet union was significantly ahead of the u.s. in missile technology and deployment of very consequential but totally false assertion. more broadly, it got the state of the soviet economy in the 1980s dead wrong. claiming it was sturdy when, in fak, it was collapsing. after the cold war in the late 1990, the intelligence community central directive was to establish whether sudan hussein was trying to develop nuclear weapons. it got that wrong as well. it is a form of regulation and bureaucratic control. people in government view information as power and don't want to share it and develop elaborate mechanisms to hoard it. they cover up mistakes and illegal activities by classifying the problem away. richard nixon's solicitor general wrote in 1989 about the
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publication of the pentagon papers. the top secret documents about the vietnam war released while the war was still being waged. this is what he said. i have never seen any trace of a threat to the national security from the publication. indeed, i have never even seen it suggested that there was such an actual threat. it becomes apparent to any person with classified material that there is massive overclassification and that the prin principle concern is not with national security but with governmental embarrassment of one sort or another. democratic government demands transparency and accountability and control over government are impossible when citizens know so little about what it is doing. and when government has the power to block acsecess to any that information. this is much worse in the digital era. tiffany neftali and former
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director of the mixon library told me we now have a tsunami of classified documents, powerpoints and all kinds of stuff all stored somewhere in the cloud. but we still have a tiny staff of people at the national archives for the declassification process. he estimated that it could take five years for a request to declassify a single document to even make it to the agency that has to decide whether to do so. another scholar, matthew connelly of columbia points out that the u.s. government spends $18 billion a year on classifying and protecting information, and just $100 million on de classification. most presidents come to office promising to open up government secrets. yet once they get into office, they prefer the cozy system that keeps their actions hidden away from public scrutiny and assessment so now we have a vast
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military intelligence secrecy complex that just keeps growing. a recipe for bad decision-making and unaccountable government. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington post column this week. and let's get started. president zelenskyy turned 45 on wednesday and got one of his biggest birthday wishes when president biden announced that the united states will send 31 m-1 abrams tanks to help with the fight. dozens more leopard tanks will come from gathery and other allies. they have been pleading for heavy weapons from the west and this breakthrough came after a game of chicken between the united states and germany to see who would offer tanks first. let's talk about the war and much more with today's panel.
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ann marie slaughter from the state department and joins us from princeton. she's the president of new america, carl bildt joins us from stock home and kishore mahbubani joins us from singapore. and ann marie, what do you make of this, particularly the german decision? >> well, the german decision is extraordinary in just historic ol terms because once again german tanks, panthers to most of the russians and europeans, they will be fighting russia, they are not rolling into ush, but we certainly hope not. so the historical significance is enormous. but what is important about this decision is political. it is signaling to putin, no, we are not going to split, we're going to maintainco he cohesion
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we're going to amp up so we're not scared of your threats of escalation. that is more important than the military advantage. it will take months for the ukrainians to get them and be able to use them. long-term it will help ukraine defend and advance against russia. but that is going to take quite a while. so, for now, it is really a very important political signal that nato is holding together. >> but carl, if it is an important political signal, does it break the stalemate that has developed on the ground. there is no major advances on either side, will this change that? >> well it might. but as ann marie said, that will take quite sometime. the immediate significance is political. and i think it was very important that there were u.s. tanks as well. i think that is in terms of political signal even more important than the german tanks, the leopards which are significant, but the fact that there are some abrams is also
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significant. that is going to take some months. at best. to make sort of effective fighting units out of this. and that will make it more possible for the ukrainians first to resist the new russian offensive that is going to come at some point in time and then perhaps to be able to reconquer or take back some of the territory that russia has tried to steal from them. >> kishore, do you think that this play pushes russia in a direction where it is more likely to negotiate? so far president putin has not seemed particularly willing to negotiate? >> well, clearly the war has to be condemned, russia's invasion has to be condemned. but i think russia is also aware that 85% of the world's population has not imposed
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sanctions on russia. and if you look at it, functionally in terms of russia's links with the rest of the world, there haven't been that badly damaged by the war. so i don't think the supply of additional weapons is going to change everything and in the end of the day, it has to be a political compromise and i think that the vast majority of the world will see some kind of political compromise to end the war because the war is damaging all of us, too. >> what do you say to that ann marie? is there a compromise to be had? some kind of deal where crimea is -- is given to the russians and in return for that russia recognizes most of ukraine. diplomats could work out the formula but the question is that political deal the only way to end this war? >> i see no sign of that. yes, we could all outline
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different possible deals. but, in fact, the ukrainian position has hardened and expanded. i mean, wanting now really total victory. wanting not just the donbas back, but also crimea. and i see no face-saving way for putin to climb down. certainly the stalemate militarily means both sides can stick to their demands. the more -- doing things like sending tanks helps putin with his domestic audience because his view this is a nato proxy war against russia. so the more nato does, the strong he gets. so i don't see the actual psychological, political conditions or the military ones that make any kind of deal likely for the foreseeable future. >> carl, where does this go? it does sound like -- i think kishore is right, that the russians and putin seems to have
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settled down for a long war and essentially destroying ukrainian civilian infrastructure, hoping to effectively defeat the ukrainian nation rather than the army. >> well, i think that is correct. putin's entire political future is tied to ukraine which is what he wants to do. to restore the great russia empire. that he sees as his destiny and talks about a life and death struggle. and there is no sign of him backing down and no sign of ukrainians to surrender. >> stay with us. when we come back, i'm going to ask kishore to talk about the 85% of the world not improsing sanctions, including the world's largest democracy, india, when we come back. maybe it's perfecting that special place that you want to keep in the family... ...or passing g down the family business... ...or giving back to the places t that inspire you.
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and former swedish prime minister and kishore plau bub annie from the research institute. kishore, you understand india's foreign policy very well and in singapore you've had to watch india and china in particular very carefully. and you were at the u.n. for almost i think a decade representing singapore. what is your sense of why india, the world's largest democracy, talks about a foreign policy has been resolutely neutral and unwilling to -- to actively work against russia? >> well, i think it is important to understand from ind yu's perspective, this is probably the most promising moment in india's history. there is now no question that one of the fastest growing economies in the world over the
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next ten years will be india. and i don't know how modi did it, but he's woken up a sleeping giant. and this sleeping giant, as it wakes up, wants to focus on succeeding in its economic development. and i think it doesn't want to get distracted by other issues like this ukraine war. and at the same time, india, you mentioned that i was at the u.n., india knows that when it comes to the crunch, when it desperately needs a veto in the u.n. security council to protect indian interests, which happens from time to time with pakistan or something, the indians have learned after many decades that they're reliable -- could not come from the united states or
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united kingdom or france, or certainly not china, the most reliable comes from russia. so there is deep links between india and russia that could not be forgotten. but this does not mean that india supports the invasion of ukraine. it is very unhappy about it. but it has larger concentrations and so you work with russia. you will not cut off ties with russia. >> ann marie, what do you think is going on in china? because the chinese have in some ways signals a kind of backpedaling of sorts. there was a conversation reported between the chinese foreign minister and the russian foreign minister where the chinese version, the read out seemed to dial back a little bit this idea of an alliance, they said it was not an alliance. it seemed to suggest it is not without limits. so in some ways, dialing back even the think that xi jinping
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had said just a year ago. >> well, china, i think is making clear that there are limits. for instance, if putin were even to really certainly to use a tactical nuclear weapon, i think xi is saying, we will not support you all of the way. it is not without limits. but the united states is not giving china much room to do anything other than to support russia. and here what kishore said is hugely important. because for the biden administration, this is the free world versus the unfree world. this is democracy versus autocracies. that is how biden frames the importance of the war in ukraine. it is not just about territorial integrity, it's about freedom, democracy versus autocracy. china doesn't want to play into the narrative of the democracies versus the autocracies. it, like india, wants to play its only global role and have
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relations with many, many countries who are otherwise also close to the west. >> carl, where does this leave the europeans, trying to preserve a european order, they don't want to see, you know borders changed by force, it is not just in europe, it is been very rare since 1945, almost unheard of for borders to be changed by force. is this a parochial european concern or could they sell this to the indians of the world about a concern about the -- the indians should not want borders changed by force. that is what the chinese are trying to do up in the hi himalayas. >> exactly. i would prefer, i think that is the fund. ales in terms global order. you don't invade other countries. you don't start war. that is the very fundamentals of the united nations league.
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they've been trying to build since 1945. not always successful. but there have been cases where the one nation is trying to conquer other states, saddam hussein in kuwait and he was thrown out for that very reason. and for us europeans, of course, smsing this that brings back something of hitler versus poland and the worst of the memories of the world periods of europ european security. but it is global stability. if we suddenly unravel and depart from and destroy what is the very foundation of the international order, that is you don't invade other countries. then the consequences could be quite severe. also for the indians. >> kishore, do you have a final thought on this? we have to wrap up? >> well, the paradoxical situation, fareed, is that at the end of the cold war there
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was so many predictions that europe's past will be asia's future, all of the wars will be in asia. paradoxically, there have been no major war in asia since 1979, 43 years and it is now at europe's doorstep. and i only say this because it is important to do some deep reflection. because wars are also at the end of day a result of political incompetence of some kind and there needs to be some deeper reflection on why is it in so many doors on europe's doorstep and peace, these are big questions. >> we will have to leave at that and have you back kishore to give us the answers. ann marie, carl, kishore, really fascinating conversations. thank you so much. >> thank you. next on "gps", week tackle two important stories out of iran.
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first what is happening with the protest movement there and we'll also give you a troubling update on the country's nuclear program when we come back. what's the #1 retinol brand used most by dermatologists? it's neutrogena® rapid wrinkle repair® smooths the look of fine lines in 1-we, deep wrinkles in 4. so you can kis wrinkles goodbye! neutrogena® there's a different way to treat hiv. it's every-other-month, injectable cabenuva. for adults who are undetectable, cabenuva is the only complete, long-acting hiv treatment you can get every other month. cabenuva helps keep me undetectable.
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for months, large crowds of outraged protesters filled iran streets. they gathered to condemn the death of 22-year-old masa ameany who died while in custody of the morality police. the protests were met with a brutal regime crackdown. one human rights organization estimates that more than 500 people including children have been killed in clashes with government forces. protesters are also being sentenced to death in at least four have already been hanged. today the protesters appear to have mostly died down. and there was another big iran story in the news this week. the iaea declared that iran has
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stockpiled enough material to build several nuclear weapons. i want to talk about all of this with my best valli nasser. welcome. first explain to us this issue of what has happened to these protests. they captured the world's attention. what has happened? >> well, i think the protests have entered a new phase. it was -- it was people expecting that they would just continue as they did. but they have lost some of their intensity. it is in large measurer due to the crackdown and it is very snowy and an enormous amount of air pollution that shut down cities an disrupting the flow of the protests. but it is important to say that the anger that prompted these protests is very much is there and the situation is very froth.
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the economy has been in a much worse place than it was before and there is also public anger at the way in which government mas reacted to these protests and particularly to the executions that you mentioned. >> the executions strike me as an escalation that you haven't seen from this regime often. >> exactly. first of all, they are in convention to the law, the rights of appeal and families to intervene in the process have not been observed. i think there is a combination of revenge, show of bravado by the regime that we could do this but also an element of deterrence here. they've been using many tactics including the raise the cost of participation for young people. >> one of the things that samuel huntington said about looking
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for democratic transitions or the breakup of an authoritarian regime is when you see cracks within the regime. and during the green revelation, you did see that. you had reformist members of the elite and hard-line members whax , what is going on within the regime now. >> there are people who count themselves as lawyer to the islamic republic. even from the very beginning, women who wear hijab were sympathetic to young girls who wanted freedom of dress. there are senior ayatollahs and senior statesman who have criticized the performance of the government and the crockdown. there has been broad criticism of the executions by clerics. but the cabal is making these decisions under a siege mentality. that the country is under attack, that this is not the time to buckle, this is not the time to blink. >> and what do we make of these
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nuclear moves as you say the economy is in terrible shape, the sanctions are making it very difficult for iran to modernize any aspect of its economy. so what are they doing here? are they trying to get the world's attention and get back to negotiations? >> i think they would like to. but there is reality here. but they have become a pariah state. the public opinion does not provide for any kind of deal with iran. there is no one willing to lift sanctions and give money to the islamic republic at any price. so unless the nuclear program becomes more threatening, you're not going to get the west to budge. and the thing to keep in mind with iran is we have multiple crises. there are the protests and they're very serious and the handling has been heinous and captured public attention. but that is not the only issue. we have a nuclear issue that is not going away and now we have a ukraine issue that is not going away. >> just explain that. the drones.
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they're selling drones to the russias. >> perhaps other things to the russians and getting things from russia. they're building a much tighter economic relationship with russia. in some ways iran is becoming an economic lifeline to putin, p providing him with an outlet to the persian gulf and all of these are happening at the same time. we used to have one crisis with iran and now we have three crises at the same time. >> and this effort may be as away of getting the attention and restarting negotiations has another really important side effect, which is israel is also watching. and the prime minister of israel right now is netanyahu who has said unequivocally on this program, if iran continues to move in the direction, israel will not accept an iran nuclear program. by which i think he means the israelis will attack iran.
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>> they will attack iran or they will carry out acts of sabotage. this is a game of cat and mouse which at any point in time could erupt into something much bigger. iran's calculation is that the west has a lot more to lose in a major crisis in the middle east than iran has. in other words, they're calculating on the fact with ukraine going on and china going on, last thing the biden administration and europeans want is a third major war in the middle east and that in fact by escalating -- if they get netanyahu to start saber rattling of his own, that is a benefit to tehran. it will force the biden administration to do something. >> vali nasser, great to have you on. mass protests have rocked israel and some say democracy itself is at risk there. we'll tell you all about it when we come back. we will work with you every step of the way to help you achieve it.
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even before the new bout of violence in israel, another story, a political one, has been grabbing the attention of that nation and the world. protests have rocked israel's streets over a fundamental issue of governance. let me explain. how i do americans would feel if congress wanted to pass a law that would give it the power to overturn supreme court decisions by a simple majority vote. i think it is safe to bet that there could be outrage and massive protests and it would violate the system of checks and balances that form the bedrock of the american system. and benjamin's netanyahu new justice minister has proposed just such reforms and more. daniel khan said if these reforms were enacting, israel would no longer be a democracy
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in the eyes of world. let me play you a little bit of what netanyahu said to me in november before he returned for his third stint as prime minister. >> fareed, if i have to describe my political philosophy, i'm a 19th century democrat with a small -- and i believe that the principles that lock in montes coup put forward, that you have to have balance between the three branches of government and it is different from most other parliament democracies, it has been thrown a little out of kilter but you don't destroy one of the nodes of the triangle because then you're really out of balance. so i will -- whatever we do in judicial reform will be very measured and responsible and my record shows that. >> joining me now is dahlia scheindlin, from har witz.
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welcome. first i want you to ask you, is netanyahu's statement that he believes in checks and balances compatible with these reforms that are being outlined right now. >> i'm glad you asked the question that way. because many people think what does bibi want. and i don't think it matters what you think or wants or believes, but what matters what he has been doing, is his justice minister propose a package of reforms that would severely constraint the independence of the judicial as a whole and end review of legislation and frankly of executive power as well. so i don't think what he said at that time is compatible with what is happening now. >> and the prime minister has extraordinary powers because, correct me if i'm wrong, but you don't have a koconstitution,
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israel hasn't treated tonight courts and such, it does strike me that this -- the stakes are already super executive one step further. >> that is true. in fact, israel lacks the institutional checks and balances that we would see in any other democracy. we only have one chamber of parliament. we don't have any regional elections or presidential veto. and the issue of the constitution is complicated. some legal scholars would say that israel's basic laws add up to something like a constitution if you include supreme court rulings. but there is no one formal written constitution. >> wow. now tell us when did this movement on the right start? what is it about? >> well that is a very complicated question. but i'll make it very simple. i think the most immediate response to that question is that several of the figures in
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this government, namely the prime minister and one of his key allies, are either on trial for corruption, that is the prime minister, and one of his key allies who have been convicted of corruption, so by straining the judiciary you could have more free reign for those who could be investigated or on trial for corruption. but that is a very small part of it. because the right-wing tendency in israel to support constraining the judiciary and over the last 13 years attacking the judiciary rhetorically in op-eds and media through think tanks and top level government figures has taken on a very -- i would say a frenzy tone. >> what happens to netanyahu's own court case. we kept hearing about it but here he is prime minister again. is he still under investigation? >> he's not only under investigation, he's under indictment and standing trial. his trial is active.
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we -- it will probably going on for a long time so there are recesses and we don't always hear about it. and the way i look at this package of reforms, there is not one item in there that could end his trials. which would be a very extreme move in a country like israel, especially because everybody is watching and this is obviously not something that would go under the radar. but the reforms that we're talking about, essentially consolidate power. this is the important point. they remove constraints on executive power, and the more the executive has consolidated control, the stronger their case becomes. they become more dominant. >> what is the reaction in israel? i'm struck over here in the united states by the fact that even allen dur sh witz, has been very critical. what is it like there? >> i think we're all fascinated by allen. most know who he is, which is
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more than i could say than they know with other americans with the exception of the president. so everybody has been covering the critical statements and it is surprising. but the reaction in israel is as striking, i would say. it is one thing to have the political opposition oppose this, which of course they are in very extreme terms. some of them have called it a pagram against the judiciary but we're seeing mass protests for three weeks straight and over the last two weeks they were over 80,000 and last week it was over 130,000. which is very big in a site of 9 million people in israel. and in addition, i've been surprised to see open protests and statements of protests from a wide range of figures throughout society. the only question is, what kinds of arguments will be coming from this backlash that might actually make the government reconsider and say, these reforms are too dangerous for society, maybe too dangerous to our position and certainly if they're dangerous to the
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economy, or the image of israel, israel's global image of his economy that could lead to harming the credit rating, that is something that netanyahu would take seriously. >> wow, thank you so much, dahlia. pleasure to have you on and try to understand this issue. >> thank you so much for having me on. next on "gps", when russia invaded ukraine it sent food and energy prices soaring. now they have come back down. i'll explain how the world did that after the break. maybe it's perfectingg that special place that you want to keep inin the family... ...or passing down the family businesess... ...or r giving back to the places that inspire you. no matter your purpose, at pnc private bank, we will work with you every step of the way to help you achieve it. so let us focus on the how. just tell us - what's your why? ♪
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- [announcer] do you have an invention idea but don't know what to do next? duckduckgo, privacy simplified. call invent help today. they can help you get started with your idea. call now 800-710-0020. and now for last look. it is nearly a year since russia invaded ukraine and shook the global economy. prices skyrocketed as countries move to cut off commerce with russia and as russia blocked ukraine from exporting its own goods.
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but now, after a surprisingly short amount of time, those economic shock waves appear to have dissipated. food prices, according to a global index, ended 2022 lower than what they started. fertilizer is also cheaper today than it was at the beginning of the last year. the same is true for natural gas after big spikes last year, prices have fallen below initial levels. oil prices aren't quite as low as they were at the start of 2022 but they are significantly cheaper than the day the war began and way down from the peak. how the world pulled this off is a story of both the private sector and governments swinging into action. american energy companies, according to industry data, bumped more oil, extracted more natural gas and exported a record amount of petroleum. the u.s. government released some 200 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserve. european officials race to strike energy deals with azerbaijan and algeria and the
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uae and others. the european governments installed new terminals to receive foreign gas. countries and consumers also tried to use less oil and gas in the face of high prices. americans drove less over the summer. europeans turned down their thermostats this winter. governments even urged or mandated that they though do so. countries doo he ployed more renewable energy and extended the life of nuclear plants that were due to be shut down but unfortunately they were also forced to burn more coal. all of this helped to bring down prices for oil and gas. that in attorney benefited the agriculture sector. one reason is because natural gas is a key ingredient in making many fertilizers. as natural gas has gotten cheaper, so has fertilizer. and that means cheaper food. farmers also need oil to run equipment and transport products so falling oil prices have helped lower food prices and
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mein while farmers plant for crops and some ukraine grain was able to get to market after the u.n. helped broker a deal whereby russia allowed ukrainian exports on condition of inspections in turkey. and luck in the form of good weather. an usually warm winter has required let heating fuel to be burned. it is worth noting one other factor. russian exports of energy and fertilizer and food declined less than was expected when the war began. partly this was because concern sanctions including carveouts for critical goods. partly this was because nations like china and india snapped up russia products. this obviously hurt the goal of depleting putin's war chest but many russian goods have been selling at a discount because russia is desperate to sell. and indeed the west overarching goal has been to eat into russia's profits, while
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minimizing impacts on global supply. regardless, exports from russia and from ukraine did take a serious hit last year. russia's invasion administered a massive shock to the global economy. but political leaders and the invisible hand of the market did their jobs as well. the fact that prices have now fallen back to earth shows that after a painful year, the world has largely absorbed the russia shock. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. ly see you next week. dry skin is sensitive skin, too. and it's natural. treat it that way with aveeno® daily moisture. formulatedith nourishing, prebiotic oat. it's clinically proven to moisturize dry in for 24 hours. aveeno®
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every day, millions of things need to get to where they're going. and at chevron, we're working to help reduce the carbon intensity of the fuels that keep things moving. today, we're producing renewable diesel that can be used in existing diesel tanks. and we're committed to increasing our renewable fuels production. because as we work toward a lower carbon future, it's only human to keep moving forward. >> woman: why did we choose safelite? >> vo: driving around is how we get our baby to sleep, so when our windshield cracked, we trusted the experts. they focus on our safety... so we can focus on this little guy. >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪
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i screwed up. mhm. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck.
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