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tv   Fareed Zakaria GPS  CNN  January 29, 2023 10:00am-11:00am PST

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s to payday, you can with wells fargo. (co-worker 4) what are you doing this weekend? ♪ every search you make ♪ ♪ every click you take ♪ ♪ i'll be watching you ♪ - [narrator] the internet doesn't have to be so creepy, the duckduckgo app, lets you search and browse pria blocking most trackers all forf your search history is never tracked, so it can't be shared. and when you leave search, duckduckgo helps keep companies from watching you as you brows. join tens of millions of people making the easy switch by downloading the app today. duckduckgo, privacy simplified. (upbeat music) public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you from new york.
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today on the program, germany will give leopards as america offers the abrams. >> they're the most capable tanks in the world. >> what will the tank deliveries to ukraine mean for the future of its fight? how will russia retaliate for what it sees as a major escalation? we'll talk about all of that and more with the new panel. israel's new government led by netanyahu is the most far right ever. its first month in office has been marked by provocations and protests and problems. a fight has begun over the power of parliament to overturn the rulings of the nation's highest court. would it be a major step back for the middle east's only
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liberal democracy? i'll talk to a close observer. and we'll bring you an important update on iran. on the anti-regime protests, and the status of the islamic republic's nuclear program. but first, here is my take. what should we think of the fact that donald trump, joe biden and now mike pence have all turned out to have classified material sitting in their houses? before i answer that question. let me tell you a few facts. one 2004 essay put the number of classified pages in existence at about 7.5 billion. in 2012, records were classified at a rate of three per second making for an estimated 95 million classifications that
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year alone. today, no one knows how frequently information is classified. and as of 2019, more than 4 million people are eligible to access classified information. about a third for top secret documents, the highest general classification. the real scandal here is the u.s. government has a totally out of control system of secrets and this is a real danger to the quality of democratic government. let me acknowledge a political point. it is true that people glossed over these issues when donald trump was found to be holding on to classified documents at his mar-a-lago home. but had begun to discuss them now that joe biden also appears to be guilty of the same offense. some of this double standard is political bias. but trump's behavior was also a major issue, particularly his refusal to turn over the documents and defied direct requests from the justice department. that is an important difference.
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though it doesn't change the larger point. given how crazy the classification system is, the wonder is that we don't find more top secret documents littered throughout the houses of government officials. in 1998, then senator daniel patrick moynahan, who served on the select committee wrote a book titled "secrecy, the american experience." in it he lamented the rise of culture of secrecy in american government which he believed was bad for foreign policy and dangerous to democracy. on the first point, moynahan argued that many of the government's biggest mistakes were a result of its reluctance to share information and subject it's analysis to outside criticism. remember that the intelligence community was largely created to assess one question. the nature of the soviet threat. it got this wrong. in the late 1950s, for example,
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in the late 1950s, for example, it claimed that the soviet union was significantly ahead of the u.s. in missile technology and deployment of very consequential but totally false assertion. more broadly, it got the state of the soviet economy in the 1980s dead wrong. claiming it was sturdy when, in fact, it was collapsing. after the cold war in the late 1990s, the intelligence community central directive was to establish whether sudan hussein was trying to develop nuclear weapons. it got that wrong as well. moynihan argued secrecy has become a form of regulation and bureaucratic control. people in government view information as power and don't want to share it and develop elaborate mechanisms to hoard it. they cover up mistakes and illegal activities by classifying the problem away. richard nixon's solicitor general wrote in 1989 about the publication of the pentagon papers. the top secret documents about the vietnam war released while
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the war was still being waged. this is what he said. i have never seen any trace of a threat to the national security from the publication. indeed, i have never even seen it suggested that there was such an actual threat. it becomes apparent to any person with classified material that there is massive overclassification and that the principle concern is not with national security but with governmental embarrassment of one sort or another. democratic government demands transparency and accountability and control over government are impossible when citizens know so little about what it is doing. and when government has the power to block access to any of that information. this problem has become much worse in the digital era. tiffany neftali and former director of the mixon library told me we now have a tsunami of classified documents,
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tens of thousands of e-mails, power points, all kinds of stuff, all stored somewhere in the cloud. but we still have a tiny staff of people at the national archives for the declassification process. he estimated that it could take five years for a request to declassify a single document to even make it to the agency that has to decide whether to do so. another scholar, matthew connelly of columbia points out that the u.s. government spends $18 billion a year on classifying and protecting information, and just $100 million on de classification. most presidents come to office promising to open up government secrets. yet once they get into office, they prefer the cozy system that keeps their actions hidden away from public scrutiny and assessesment. so what we have now is a vast military intelligence secrecy complex that just keeps growing.
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a recipe for bad decision-making and unaccountable government. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington post column this week. and let's get started. president zelenskyy turned 45 on wednesday and got one of his biggest birthday wishes when president biden announced that the united states will send 31 m-1 abrams tanks to help with the fight. dozens more leopard tanks will come from germany and other allies. ukraine had long been pleading for such heavy weapons from the west and the breakthrough came after what seemed to be game of chicken between the united states and germany to see who would offer tanks first. let's talk about the war and much more with today's panel.
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anne marie slaughter the former director of planning at the state department and joins us 666 from princeton. the former prime minister of sweden joins us from stock hom and top singaporean diplomat and joins us from singapore. what do you make of particularly the german decision? >> well, the german decision is extraordinary in just historic terms, because once again, german tanks, panthers to most of the russians and the europeans, they will be fighting russia, they will not be rolling into russia or we hope no. so the historical significance really what's most important about this decision is political. it is signaling to putin, no, we are not going to split, we're going to maintain cohesion and we're going to amp up so we're not scared of your threats of escalation.
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that's a more important signal right now than the military advantage. it's going to take months for the ukrainians to get them and use them. longer term, it will help ukraine defend and advance against russia, but that's going to take quite a while. so, for now, it is really a very important political signal that nato is holding together. >> but carl, if it is an important political signal, does it break the stalemate that has developed on the ground. there is no major advances on either side, will this change that? >> well it might. but as ann marie said, that will take quite sometime. the immediate significance is political. and i think it was very important that there were u.s. tanks as well. i think that is in terms of political signal even more important than the german tanks, there might be 100 leopards, which are significant, but the fact that there are some abrams is also significant.
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that is going to take some months, at best, to make some sort of effective fighting units out of this. and that will make it more possible for the ukrainians first to resist the new russian offensive that is going to come at some point in time and then perhaps to be able to reconquer or take back some of the territory that russia has tried to steal from them. >> kishore, do you think that this play pushes russia in a direction where it is more likely to negotiate? so far president putin has not seemed particularly willing to negotiate? >> well, clearly the war has to be condemned, russia's invasion has to be condemned. but i think russia is also aware that 85% of the world's population has not imposed sanctions on russia. and if you look at it,
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functionally in terms of russia's links with the rest of the world, they haven't been that badly damaged by the war. so i don't think the supply of additional weapons is going to change everything and in the end of the day, it has to be a political compromise and i think that the vast majority of the world like to see some kind of political compromise to end the war, because the war is damaging all of us, too. >> what do you say to that, anne marie? # is there a compromise to be had? some kind of deal where crimea is -- is given to the russians and in return for that russia recognizes most of ukraine. i mean, you know, diplomats can work out the formula, but the question is, is that kind of political deal, the only way to end this war? >> i see no sign of that. yes, we could all outline different possible deals.
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but, in fact, the ukrainian position has hardened and expanded. i mean, wanting now really total victory. wanting not just the donbas back, but also crimea. and i see no face-saving way for putin to climb down. certainly the stalemate militarily means both sides can stick to their demands. the more -- doing things like sending tanks helps putin with his domestic audience because his view this is a nato proxy war against russia. so the more nato does, the stronger he gets. so i don't see the actual psychological, political conditions or the military ones that make any kind of deal likely for the foreseeable future. >> carl, where does this go? it does sound like -- i think kishore is right, that the russians and putin seems to have settled down for a long war and essentially destroying ukrainian
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civilian infrastructure, hoping to effectively defeat the ukrainian nation rather than the army. >> well, i think that is correct. putin's entire political future is tied to the success of get rid of ukraine, which is what he wants to do, to restore the great russia empire. that he sees as his destiny and talks about a life and death struggle. and there is no sign of him backing down and no sign of ukrainians to surrender. >> stay with us. i'm going to, when we come back, ask kishore to expand on the issue of 85% of the world that is not imposing sanctions, particularly the world's largest democracy, india, when we come back. this whole thing wouldn't be a thing. yeah, dad! i don't want to deal with this. oh, you brought your luggage to the airport. that's adorable. with shipgo shipping your luggage before you fly you'll never have to wait around here again.
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from the research institute. kishore, you understand india's foreign policy very well and in singapore you've had to watch india and china in particular very carefully. and you were at the u.n. for almost i think a decade representing singapore. what is your sense of why india, the world's largest democracy, always talks about its foreign policy, has been resolutely neutral and unwilling to -- to actively work against russia? >> well, i think it is important to understand, from india's perspective, this is probably the most promising moment in india's history. there is now no question that one of the fastest growing economies in the world over the next ten years will be india. and i don't know how modi did
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it, but he's woken up a sleeping giant. and this sleeping giant, as it wakes up, wants to focus on succeeding in its economic development. and i think it doesn't want to get distracted by other issues like this ukraine war. and at the same time, india, you mentioned that it's not just about smith military supplies. you mentioned i was at the u.n. india knows that when it comes to the crunch, when it desperately needs a veto in the u.n. security council to protect indian interests, which happens from time to time with pakistan or something, the indians have learned after many decades that their reliable veto cannot come from the united states or united kingdom or france and certainly not china, the most
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reliable comes from russia. so there is deep links between india and russia that could not be forgotten. but this does not mean that india supports the invasion of ukraine. it is very unhappy about it. but nonetheless, it has larger concentrations and and so you work with russia. you will not cut off ties with russia. >> ann marie, what do you think is going on in china? because the chinese have in some ways signaled a kind of backpedaling of sorts. there was a conversation reported between the chinese foreign minister and the russian foreign minister where the chinese version, the read out seemed to dial back a little bit this idea of an alliance, they said it was not an alliance. it seemed to suggest it is not without limits. so in some ways, dialing back even the think that xi jinping had said just a year ago. >> well, china, i think is making clear that there are limits.
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for instance, if putin were even to really certainly to use a tactical nuclear weapon, i think xi is saying, we will not support you all of the way. it is not without limits. but the united states is not giving china much room to do anything other than to support russia. and here what kishore said is hugely important. because for the biden administration, this is the free world versus the unfree world. this is democracy versus autocracies. that is how biden frames the importance of the war in ukraine. it is not just about territorial integrity, it's about freedom, democracy versus autocracy. china doesn't want to play into the narrative of the democracies versus the autocracies. it, like india, wants to play its only global role and have relations with many, many countries who are otherwise also close to the west.
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>> carl, where does this leave the europeans, trying to preserve a european order, they don't want to see, you know borders changed by force, it is not just in europe, it is been very rare since 1945, almost unheard of for borders to be changed by force. is this a parochial european concern or could they sell this to the indians of the world about a concern about the -- the indians should not want borders changed by force. that is what the chinese are trying to do up in the himalayas. >> exactly. you can phrase it different ways. i would prefer, i think that is the fund. facing it in terms of global order. you don't invade other countries. you don't start war. that is sort of the very fundamentals of the un league. they've been trying to build since 1945. not always successful. but there have been cases where the one nation is trying to
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conquer other states, saddam hussein in kuwait and he was thrown out decisively by the international community for that very reason. and for us europeans, of course, this is something that brings back memories of hitler versus poland in 1939, the worst of memories of the worst periods of european history. but for us it's a question of global stability. if we suddenly unravel, depart from and destroy what is the very foundation of the international order, that is you don't invade other countries. then the consequences could be quite severe. also for the indians. >> kishore, do you have a final thought on this? we have to wrap up? >> well, the paradoxical situation, fareed, is that at the end of the cold war there was so many predictions that europe's past will be asia's future, all of the wars will be in asia. paradoxically, there have been
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no major war in asia since 1979, 43 years, and what's remarkable is now the wars are at europe's doorstep. and i only say this because it is important to do some deep reflection. because wars are also at the end of day a result of political incompetence of some kind and there needs to be some deeper reflection on why is it in so many wars on europe's doorstep and peace, these are the big questions. >> we will have to leave it at that and have you back to give us the answers. ann marie, carl, kishore, really fascinating conversations. thank you so much. >> thank you. >> next on "gps" we'll tackle two important stories out of iran. first what is happening with the protest movement there and we'll also give you a troubling update on the country's nuclear program when we come back. your dishes.
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for months, large crowds of outraged protesters filled iran streets. they gathered to condemn the death of 22-year-old massa amina who died while in custody of the morality police. the protests were met with a brutal regime crackdown. one human rights organization estimates that more than 500 people including children have been killed in clashes with government forces. protesters are also being sentenced to death in at least four have already been hanged. today the protesters appear to have mostly died down. and there was another big iran story in the news this week. the iaea declared that iran has stockpiled enough material to build several nuclear weapons. i want to talk about all of this
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with my guest, vali nasr. welcome. first explain to us this issue of what has happened to these protests. they captured the world's attention. what has happened? >> well, i think the protests have entered a new phase. it was -- it was people expecting that they would just continue as they did. but they have lost some of their intensity. it is in large measurer due to the regime crackdown, but there are other things, the weather is very cold in most of iran, it has been snowy, enormous amount of air pollution that shut down cities for time and this disrupted the flow of the protests. but it is important to say that the anger that prompted these protests is very much is there and the situation is very froth. iran's economy has gotten in a much worst place than it was before and there's a public anger
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at the way in which government mas reacted to these protests and particularly to the executions that you mentioned. >> the executions strike me as an even kind of escalation that you haven't even seen from this regime often. >> exactly. first of all, they are in contradiction to iran's own law, the rights of appeal and families to intervene in the process have not been observed. i think there is a combination of revenge, show of bravado by the regime that we could do this but also i think there's an element of deterrence here. they've been using many ac ticks including the executions to raise the cost of participation for young people. >> you know, one of the things that samuel huntington said about looking for democratic transitions or the breakup of an authoritarian regime is when you see cracks within the regime.
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and during the green revolution or movement in iran you saw that, you had reformist members of the elite and hardline members. what is going on within the regime now? >> there are people who count themselves loyal to the islamic republic. even from the very beginning, women who wear hijab were sympathetic to young girls who wanted freedom of dress. there are senior ayatollahs and senior statesman who have criticized the performance of the government and the crackdown. there's been broad criticism of the executions in iran by clerics. the kabul that is ruling iran is making decisions under a siege mentality, that country is under attack, that this is not the time to buckle, this is not the time to blink. >> and what do we make of these nuclear moves? as you say, the economy is in terrible shape, the sanctions are making it very difficult for iran to modernize any aspect of its economy.
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so what are they doing here? are they trying to get the world's attention and get back to negotiations? >> i think they would like to. but there is reality here. the protests have made iran a pariah state. the public opinion does not provide for any kind of deal with iran. i think there's any world leader willing to lift sanctions and give money to the islamic republic at any price. unless the nuclear program becomes more threatening you're not going to get the west to budge. the thing to keep in mind with iran, we have multiple crises. there are the protests that are very serious and the handling has been heinous and captured public opinion. that's not the only issue. we have a nuclear issue that is not going away and now we have a ukraine issue that is not going away. >> just explain that. the drones. they're selling drones to the russians. >> perhaps other things to the russians and getting things from russia. they're building a much tighter economic relationship with
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russia. in some ways iran is becoming an economic lifeline to putin, providing him with an outlet to the persian gulf and all of these are on the table and all are happening at the same time. we used to have one crisis with iran and now we have three crises with iran at the same time. >> and it seems to me the effort to ratchet up on the nuclear front may be a way of getting attention and restarting negotiations has another really important side effect, which is israel is also watching. and the prime minister of israel right now is netanyahu who has said unequivocally on this program, if iran continues to move in the direction, israel will not accept an iran nuclear program. by which i think he means the israelis will attack iran. >> they will attack iran or they will carry out acts of sabotage. this is going to be a game of
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cat and moussaoui at any point in time could erupt into something much bigger. iran's calculation is that the west has a lot more to lose in a major crisis in the middle east than iran has. in other words, they're calculating on the fact with ukraine going on and china going on, last thing the biden administration and europeans want is a third major war in the middle east, and that, in fact, by escalating -- if they get netanyahu to start saber rattling of his own, that is a benefit to tehran. just like it forced the obama administration to do something, it will force the biden administration to do something. >> vali nasser, great to have you on. >> thank you. next on "gps" mass protests have rocked israel, and some say democracy itself is at risk there. we'll tell you all about it when we come back. of illness-causing bacteria detergents leave behind. clean is good. sanitized is better. about two years ago i realized that jade was overweight.
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grabbing the attention of that nation and the world. protests have rocked israel's streets over a fundamental issue of governance. let me explain. >> how do you think americans would feel if congress wanted to pass a law that would give it the power to overturn supreme court decisions by a simple majority vote. i think it is safe to bet that there could be outrage and massive protests and it would violate the system of checks and balances that form the bedrock of the american system. the israeli government, though different, is based on checks and balances and benjamin's netanyahu new justice minister has proposed just such reforms and more. nobel prize winning israeli economist daniel khan said if these reforms were enacted, israel would no longer be a democracy in the eyes of world. let me play you a little bit of what netanyahu said to me in november before he returned for his third stint as prime minister.
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>> fareed, if i have to describe my political philosophy, i'm a 19th century democrat with a small "d" and i believe that the principle s small -- and i believe that the principles that lock in montes coup put forward, that you have to have balance between the three branches of government and it's important and in israel you have to address some of the imbalance because it's different than most other parliament democracies, it has been thrown a little out of kilter but you don't destroy one of the nodes of the triangle because then you're really out of balance. so i will -- whatever we do in judicial reform will be very measured and responsible and my record shows that. >> joining me now is dahlia shinedlin a columnist at har witz. welcome. first i want you to ask you, is netanyahu's statement that he believes in checks and balances compatible with these reforms that are being outlined right now.
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>> i'm glad you asked the question that way because many people think what does bebe really want. i don't think it matters what he thinks or wants or believes. what matters is what he has been doing. what he has been doing is having his justice minister, from his party, propose a package of reforms that would severely constraint the independence of the judicial as a whole and effectively end judicial review of legislation and frankly of executive power as well. so i don't think what he said at that time is compatible with what his government is doing now. just to highlight what you're saying, the israeli executive, the prime minister, has quite extraordinary powers, because correct me if i'm wrong, but you don't really have a constitution, you don't really -- israel hasn't courts and such, it does strike me that this -- the stakes are
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already super executive one step further. >> that's true. in fact, israel lacks the institutional checks and balances that we would see in any other democracy. we only have one chamber of parliament. we do not have a federal system or regional elections or presidential veto. and the issue of the constitution is complicated. some legal scholars would say that israel's basic laws add up to something like a constitution if you include supreme court rulings. but there is no one formal written constitution. >> wow. now tell us when did this movement on the right start? what is it about? >> well that is a very complicated question. but i'll make it very simple. i think the most immediate response to that question is that several of the figures in this government, namely the prime minister and one of his key allies, are either on trial for corruption, that is the prime minister, and one of his key allies who have been
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convicted of corruption, so one immediate answer is by straining the judiciary you could have more free reign for an executive who could be investigated or on trial for corruption. but that is a very small part of it. because the right-wing tendency in israel to support constraining the judiciary and frankly over the last 13 years attacking the judiciary rhetorically, in op-eds, and media, through think tanks and through top-level government figures has taken on a very -- i would say a frenzy tone. >> what happens to netanyahu's own court case? we kept hearing about it but here he is prime minister again. is he still under investigation? >> he's not only under investigation, he's under indictment and standing trial. his trial is active. it will probably go on for a long time, so there are recesses and we don't always hear about it. for that reason, the way i look at this
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package of reforms, there is not one item in there that could end his trials. which would be a very extreme move in a country like israel, especially because everybody is watching and this is obviously not something that would go under the radar. but the reforms that we're talking about, essentially consolidate power. i think this is the really important point. they remove constraints on executive power, and the more the executive has consolidated control, the stronger their case becomes. they become more dominant. >> what is the reaction in israel? i'm struck over here in the united states by the fact that even allen dershowitz, one thinks as the supporter of israel on all counts, has been critical. what's it like there? # # >> i think we're all fascinated by allen. most israelis know who allen dershowitz is, which is more than i can say than they know with other americans with the exception of the president. so everybody has been covering the critical statements and it is surprising. but the reaction in israel is as
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striking, i would say. it's one thing to have the political opposition oppose this, which they are, in extreme terms, some of them have called it a pagram against the israeli judiciary, bus we're -- but we're cease mass protests. three weeks straight and over the last two weeks they were over 80,000 and last week it was over 130,000. which is very big in a society of 9 million people in israel. and in addition, i've been surprised to see open protests and statements of protests from a wide range of figures throughout society. the only question is, what kinds of arguments will be coming from this backlash that might actually make the government reconsider and say, these reforms are too dangerous for society, maybe too dangerous to our position and certainly if they're dangerous to the economy, or the image of israel, israel's global image of his economy that could lead to harming the credit rating, that is something that netanyahu would take seriously.
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>> wow, thank you so much, dahlia. pleasure to have you on and try to understand this issue. >> thank you so much for having me on. next on "gps", when russia invaded ukraine last year it sent food and energy prices soaring. now they have come back down. i'll explain how the world did that after the break. so adding a student title might feel daunting. national university is here to support all your titles. national university. supporting the whole you. ♪ ♪ mom! mom! every day can be extraordinary with rich, creamy, delicious fage total yogurt. elmo: now daddy has super duper bandages just like elmo! louie: you were super duper today getting your covid vaccine elmo! elmo: yeah. there was a little pinch but it was okay. elmo was really glad to have daddy and baby david there with him.
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and now for last look. it is nearly a year since russia invaded ukraine and shook the global economy. prices for energy, food and fertilizer skyrocketed as countries moved to cut off commerce with russia and as russia blocked ukraine from exportsing its own goods. but now, after a surprisingly short amount of time, those
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economic shock waves appear to have dissipated. food prices, according to a global index, ended 2022 lower than what they started. fertilizer is also cheaper today than it was at the beginning of the last year. the same is true for natural gas. after big spikes last year, prices have fallen below initial levels. oil prices aren't quite as low as they were at the start of 2022 but they are significantly cheaper than the day the war began and way down from the peak. how the world pulled this off is a story of both the private sector and governments swinging into action. american energy companies, according to industry data, pumped more oil, extracted more natural gas and exported a record amount of petroleum. the u.s. government released some 200 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserve. european officials raced to strike energy deals with azerbaijan and algeria and the uae and others. the european governments
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work with other countries to install new terminals to receive foreign gas. countries and consumers also tried to use less oil and gas in the face of high prices. americans drove less over the summer. europeans turned down their thermostats this winter. governments even urged or mandated that they though do so. countries deployed more renewable energy and extended the life of nuclear plants that were due to be shut down but unfortunately they were also forced to burn more coal. all of this helped to bring down prices for oil and gas. that, in turn, benefited the agriculture sector. one reason is because natural gas is a key ingredient in making many fertilizers. as natural gas has gotten cheaper, so has fertilizer. and that means cheaper food. farmers also need oil to run equipment and transport products, so falling oil prices have helped lower food prices
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and meanwhile farmers plant for crops and some ukraine grain was able to get to market after the u.n. helped broker a deal whereby russia allowed ukrainian exports on condition of inspections in turkey. one more thing that's brought down energy and food prices is luck, in the form of good weather. an usually warm winter has required let heating fuel to be burned and favorable conditions have yielded strong harvests. it is worth noting one other factor. russian exports of energy and fertilizer and food declined less than was expected when the war began. partly this was because weatern sanctions including carveouts for critical goods. partly this was because nations like china and india snapped up russia products. this obviously hurt the goal of depleting putin's war chest but many russian goods have been selling at a discount because russia is desperate to sell. and indeed the west's overarching goal has been to eat into russia's profits, while minimizing impacts on global supply.
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regardless, exports from russia and from ukraine did take a serious hit last year. russia's invasion administered a massive shock to the global economy. but political leaders and the invisible hand of the market did their jobs as well. the fact that prices have now fallen back to earth shows that after a painful year, the world has largely absorbed the russia shock. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. ls int. air wick essential mist. connect to nature. every day, more dog people are deciding it's time for a fresh approach to pet food. developed with vets. made from real meat and veggies. portioned for your dog. and delivered right to your door. it's smarter, healthier pet food. >> woman: why did we choose safelite? >> vo: for us, driving around is the only way we can get our baby to sleep, so when our windshield cracked,
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hi. thanks so much for joining me.