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i'm fareed zakaria. today we devote the program to that sobering anniversary. one year since russia's full-scale invasion of ukraine. i'll bring you my interview with the national security adviser jake sullivan and u.s. aid administrator samantha power about where the war and america's assistance go from here. also, who should foot the bill for the hundreds of billions of dollars in damage to ukraine? former treasury secretary larry summers said the answer is easy. listen to him explain his plan. then, why putin's war on ukraine might not be proceeding as he hoped. the russian president may be getting exactly what he always wanted back home in russia.

"the new york times" valerie hopkins will explain. but first, here is my take. one year into russia's naked aggression against ukraine it is become clear that neither side is strong enough to win the war, nor weak enough to sue for peace. the conflict has settled into a stalemate. after making impressive gains, ukraine's armed forces have not made significant advanced in months. russia, meanwhile, has dug into the territories that it occupies and further attacks are having little success so far. the numbers tell the story. according to a washington post analysis, russia occupied about 7% of ukraine territory when it launched its invasion in february of 2022. it swept into eastern ukraine and in a month it was holding 22% of the country. then came ukrainian counter offensives which by mid-november had taken back about a third of

those gains. and in the last three months, nothing significant has changed. ukraine and russia are both planning new moves but it would take massive victories to fundamentally change the situation. to put it another way, ukraine would need to recover roughly twice as much territory as was able to last year, just to get back the lands conquered since the 2022 invasion. russia's performance in the war has been poor. but it is doing better. especially at holding territory. russia has also been able to stabilize its economy, which the imf projects will do better this year than the united kingdom or germany. russia is trading freely with such economic behemoths as china and india and neighbors like turkey and iran. because ever these countries and many more, outside of the advanced technology sector, russia has access to all of the goods and capital it lost through the western boycott.

there is now a huge world economy that does not include the west. and russia could swim in those waters freely. the long-term costs of the war and the effects of the sanctions are real but slow. this kind of isolation and pain rarely changed a dictatorship's policies. look at north korea, iran, cuba and venezuela. so what is the path forward? in the short run, there is only one answer for the west and its allies? give ukraine more weapons and money. if the decision has been made that putin's war of aggression must not be rewarded, then take all steps to make that a reality. with almost every weapon system requested by ukraine, there is a pattern of ambivalence first and then delay and finally agreement. why not send more sooner. the next three months are crucial as the winter thaws and

makes troop movements easier. all that said, however, it is difficult to imagine a world war ii style total victory. most wars end in negotiations. this one is unlikely to be different. the task for the western is to ensure that ukraine has enough success and momentum on the battlefield that is enters those negotiations with a very strong hand. only dramatic ukraine victories like cutting off crimea will likely bring putin to the negotiating table. is there a way to end hostilities? on paper, yes. it is returning all lands captured since february of 2022 to ukraine. those taken like crimea will be subject to local referendums conducted by international groups not the russian government. in addition, ukraine would get

security guarantees from nato. though they would not apply to those disputes territories. that tradeoff, to put is simply, crimea and parts of the donbas is one that could be sold to ukrainians because they would achieve their long cherished goal of becoming part of the west. it could be acceptable to russia because it could claim to have protected some russian speaking parts of ukraine. there are many who believe the war can end with a total ukrainian victory. i hope so. but i doubt it. in 2021, russia was more than three times bigger than ukraine in population. almost 15 times bigger in gdp and spent 10 times more on its defense budget. russians have a high capacity tor pain in war time. the soviet union lost 24 million

people in world war ii compared to america's 420,000. and while russia's economy is in slow decline, ukraine's has fallen off a cliff. gdp contracted by about 30% in 2022. the government is spending more than double what it takes in thanks to western aid. more than 13 million people are displaced. more than 8 million of them are abroad. the war is taking place on ukrainian soil, with its cities being bombarded to rubble, its factory's razed and destitute. and it will be worth asking, are we letting ukraine get destroyed in order to save it? go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my column this week. and let's get started.

to mark the first anniversary of russia's invasion, i had the opportunity to interview jake sullivan and s samantha power. sullivan is the national security adviser and the man in charge of america's response to putin's war. in addition to all of the war's other crises that he deals with. power is the administrator of u.s. aid, the department responsible for among other things humanitarian aid for ukraine and rebuilding efforts there. the setting was a town hall in washington, d.c., held almost exactly a year after the invasion started. take a look. >> i want to first ask you, jake, this was really an extraordinary trip. first time in history that a u.s. president has entered a war zone that the united states did not control. so, i've taken that overnight train to kyiv and you're going through poland. and you're in a war zone for a large part of it.

so i'm guessing you u.s. planes could not enter that war zone. wha what was it like for you? what were you thinking? there was a period where the president was not protected the way the president normally is. >> right? >> the trip began with a long plane flight from washington, a stop over in ramstein in germany and then we landed in poland. and in fact, the president had to take an hour long car ride in an unmarked suv, not his normal limo that we're used to seeing, with a very small motorcade, pull up to the train station, and board this train and late at night in the dark, for a ten-hour trip overnight to arrive in kyiv the following morning. and as you said, the united states didn't control the air space. didn't control the ground. we were entering a country at war, a capital at war and a country subject to routine and repeated bombardments by the russians. and without any of the normal

security capacity that would usually accompany a president. so we were heading into the unknown. because this was unprecedented. the president was up much of the night, not so much worried about his safety as he was worried about making sure that he was going to maximize hi time on the ground in kyiv. that he would have the kind of conversations face-to-face with president zelenskyy that would allow us to move forward in our support and most importantly that he could stand up and say to the world, from right there in kyiv, that a year ago people were bracing for the fall of kyiv. and a year later, kyiv stands. ukraine stands. and america stands with kyiv and there is no more powerful way to send that message than to have the american president go do that. so it was a mixture of deep anxiety, but also a kind of building pride about serving a president and being part of a country that is trying to support ukraine in its hour of need. >> but, jake, there does seem to be a pattern.

the ukrainians ask for something, the administration is ambivalent, and time passes, there is a clamor that builds and then he started leaning toward it and finally delivers it. that is what happens with himars and patriots and the abrams tank. fighter jets is now the issue. it feels like if you're going to do it through or four months later, why not do it now given the speed is of the essence? what is going on that always leads to this pattern where you do eventually say yes, but it's now four or six months later? >> so first, fareed, the way that our military and our intelligence community make recommendations so the president is they look at the needs of the ukrainian military during the phase of the war that they are confronting at that time. and in the early weeks of the war, what the ukrainian military needed to defend kyiv was anti-armor systems, basically

missiles that could stop tanks in their tracks so they couldn't roll over kyiv and anti-air stingers to shoot down the helicopters that were bringing in paratroopers to try to take over city from the air. in the second phase of the war, ukraine really needed artillery, in the east, to stop the more traditional advances of the russian military. as we head into the spring, what ukraine really needs is armor. infantly fighting vehicles, and yes, tanks. and we're providing those. when it comes to f-16s. this is important for the current phase of the war, at this point it is important for the current phase of the war which is they are about to mount a significant counter offensive. from our perspective, f-16s are not the key capability for that offensive. this is stuff that we're moving rapidly to the front lines now. f-16s are not a question for the short-term fight. f-16s are a question for the long-term defense of ukraine and that is a conversation that president biden and president

zelenskyy had. >> samantha power, let me ask you a question that is really in your belly wick. and it is something that a lot of people thinks about, a lot of republicans have been clamoring about, before the war ukraine was regarded as, if you look at various indices, a very corrupt country. and all of those kind eof measures, how you could be sure that the massive amounts of aid that the united states and europe is sending into ukraine are getting to the people they need to get to, that there isn't corruption, graft, siphoning off, what kind of assurances could you give? >> well one thing, just stepping back and recalling a year ago, putin's speech where he described his motivation for invading ukraine at the heart of it was his panic over the

progress that ukraine was making to integrate itself to europe for starters, to become more democratic, and to take on this corruption fight. because that endangered so many of his and his cronies ill-gotten gains. so what you've seen since 2014 is the strengthening of a whole series of anti-corruption in ukraine. are they panaceas, absolutely not. but you've seen u.s. aid and other u.s. government actors throw their weight behind the support for independent media, including once this war broke out a year ago, getting flack jackets and helmets and sat phones to independent media and making sure they could survive a war and continue to report on what ukrainian authorities were doing in a critical way, as a check and balance. civil society organizations and

judges, we just launched initiative with the gao here in the united states to accept ukraine build out the extreme audit institution and that is important for reconstruction and all of the resources that are flowing in. with regard to the very large investments that we make in providing monthly direct budget support, so that health workers could be paid and educators could be paid and people with disabilities could get support when the ukrainian budget is under such strain and pressure. that we do on a reimbursable b basis. we don't provide resources unless we see the receipt for the expenditure and at this point we don't have any evidence that u.s. assistance is being misused or misspent. but again, the key is not resting on anybody's good will or virtue. it is checks and balances, the rule of law, the integrity of officials and when something is spotted, because there is going to be issued, that that gets smothered, that the people get fired and they get prosecuted

and what is amazing about this last year is the fight against corruption has been continuing. it has been continuing to pass laws on whistleblower protection and e-procurement so procurement is more visible to ukrainians and also to the rest of us and that fight has to continue alongside the military fight. >> next on "gps", an extraordinary moment in the town hall. a ukrainian soldier joined us live from the battlefield to ask a question of national security adviser jake sullivan. supply fuel for immune cells and sustain tissue health. ensure with twenty-five vitaminsns and minerals, and ensure complete

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for his safety, we can't tell you his last name or exact location but he joined from the east of ukraine just a few miles from russia's troops. igor, i know you have a question you want to ask jake sullivan. what would you like to know? >> yes. i have a very specific question for mr. sullivan. is his government planning or considering launching the production of -- specially for ukraine? i mean, 155 caliber shells, 20 caliber mines and himars missiles. do you consider this plan and if you're answer is positive, could you please tell me when are you going to realize this? thank you. >> well first, igor, before i answer the question, i want to say that as you stand out on the front lines tonight, you're defending the freedom of your

country, but as president biden said in warsaw, you're representing freedom everywhere so thank you for your bravery and for your courage and the men and women who are fighting with you. we are grateful for all that you do and the sacrifices that you are making and we can't begin to imagine the difficulties and the trials that you've gone through. what we can do is everything in ow power to get you the equipment and the ammunition that you need. and you mentioned 155mill p millimeter artillery shells and 120 millimeter tank shells and other systems like the himars missiles that you also just discussed. one of things that we are working hard at a president biden's direction is to increase the construction of all of the types of ammunition here in the united states but also in nato countries. so that the total supply of each of these different forms of ammunition grows monthly month and we could continue to move to

the front lines, this ammunition and the quantities that is necessary for you to be able to mount a successful defense and take back territory occupied by russia. this is not something that we could do with the snap of a finger. b but it is something that we're putting immense effort and resources into. >> igor, thank you so much for joining us. we pray that you and your compatriots return to your family. and i want to meet walter. he has a question for administrator power. walter? >> thank you for the opportunity. what vital interest does the united states have in ukraine? from a national security perspective, it seems that avoiding nuclear war with russia is most important. however, the continued material support to ukraine raises the possibility that nuclear escalation might occur. our strategy seems to rely on

the rationality of vladimir putin to not go nuclear. is this wise? >> thank you so much. well you've heard president biden himself peekspeak to the avoidance of that scenario. he's been very attentive to the risk of escalation and the strategy that his been pursued has been very measured. but what is at stake in ukraine are values and interests so core to the united states. i mean, imagine just wanting your freedom and your independence. this country is predicated on exactly those two values. imagine the counter factual, where we walk away or we didn't show up in the first place. and what that would mean when a dictator, who has shut down civil society, shut down independent media and dissenting voices in his own country and could turn his sights on a neighbor and with impunity, take over a country.

what would that mean for our allies in europe and for our own security over time. so i think americans understand bullies an the importance of standing up to bullies. at the same time, again, we're very alert to the risk given that russia is a nuclear armed power as you rightly say. but that is, again, how we're in the position that we're in now. building a coalition of countries coming together to make sure that this isn't just the united states and russia, that this, in fact, is ukrainians on the front lines, ukrainians doing fighting and a coalition of 50 countries rallying behind them. and including actually today more than 140 countries at the u.n. signaling still a year into the war their support for ukraine's self-defense. >> jake, one final question. we've talked all about the world. russia and ukraine, we haven't talked about what is going on in the united states. do you worry when you hear voices like governor desantis,

senator hawley, senator vance, questioning why the united states is doing this, asking why we should be spending this money. wondering whether we should be taking a more neutral position? >> what i find so interesting about that perspective, we can't operate in the world because we have to operate at home. is it presents a fault choice that is not at all who america is. we could both invest at home and provide for the safety and well being of the american people and we could lead in the world. and that is what we've done at our best. under democratic and republican presidents for decades. the united states is capable, as a powerful and selfish order nation, we have the talents and the energies of our people so solve our own problems here and president biden has done more in two years to invest in this country, to build jobs, to provide for the social safety net, to deal with the problems

that people sit around their kitchen tables and think about. while at the same time, mobilizing a coalition of free nations to support the values that americans hold so dear. so what i would say to those senators is, yes, let's do these things at home, but are you saying that america is incapable of also helping to serve a powerful force for good in the world? i don't think that the american people believe that. i think the american people think we are capable of doing both and at our best that is exactly what we have done and i believe that a lot of the moments that i've seen in this last year in ukraine, from those flags waving in small towns to the people in the u.s. government who are trying to support folks like igor on the front lines, that has been america at its best. and so i think that there is a pessimism in this argument that these senators are making. president biden has an optimistic view, which is we can do it and we should do it and we are doing it.

san as a result, i believe that democracies are getting stronger and not weaker and autocracies are getting weaker and not stronger and that is better for every person in this country. next on "gps", larry summers on how we could get russia to pay for rebuilding ukraine. and a hunter. that''s why you need versatile, durable kubota equipment. ♪ what will you do? will you make something better? create something new? our dell technologies advisors can provide yowith the tools and expertise you need to bring out the innator in you. ♪ i like to move it, move it ♪ ♪ you like to... move it ♪ we're reinventing our network. ♪ ♪

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is the economist, larry summers, he served as treasury secretary under bill clinton and the economic council on barack obama. welcome. first explain to us is economics central to understanding where we are in this struggle with russia? >> i think it is, fareed. war start as wars of maneuver and that is what putin hoped it would be. and he would win quickly. but they evolved to be wars of attrition. and when it is wars of attrition, the economic strength on the two sides, the capacity to mobilize, to produce weaponry, to bring troops to the front becomes central. and that is the concern right now, that this is evolved towards a war of attrition and that is going to make what happened to the russian economy

and of even greater importance what happens to the ukrainian economy central to how this plays out. >> when you look at the bottom line figure, even though there have been sanctions in russia's economy shrank last year and the central bank reserves were frozen and technology denied, the russian economy this year is set to grow by 0.3% according to the ifm. that means it will do better than the u.k. or germany as i pointed out at the top of the show. is it fair to say that economic sanctions have not had the bite that people expected. >> russian economic sanctions haven't bitten that hard because less than half of the world's people have been involved in countries that are part of the sanctions and a large part of the world's gdp. china and india and turkey, more than a third has not been part of the sanctions. and if you look at russia's

neighbors, their trade with us has ramped up considerably in the last year when suggests they're serving saas a weigh station for goods to get into russia. so there are real limits to the damage we could do to russia economically. we should probably try to stiffen up on the price caps on energy, there is some financial areas where we could tighten. but the most important part of winning the economic aspect of the war of attrition is doing much more to support the economy of ukraine which, by some measures, has declined by 40%. >> so the build in order to do this, and then to build ukraine, to build those apartment houses that have been bombed out and the cities devastated, those people, millions and millions who are now zdestitute.

where is it the money going to come from? >> it should come from russian state assets. russia took german assets to pay for its reconstruction after german aggression during world war ii. resources of iraq, after iraq went into kuwait, were seized to support the reconstruction of kuwait and also to compensate other nations further away who have been victims of that conflict. and that needs to be the ultimately source of support in ukraine. it needs to be an ultimate source of support for countries taking refugees from ukraine. and it needs to be an ultimate source of support for countries in global south, the developing world that have paid and suffered enormously from higher food and energy prices because of russian aggression.

i believe that if this sets a precedent that countries that engage in naked cross-border aggression will lose their state assets, that is a precedent that i think is a very healthy precedent to set. >> now, how would this work technically. help people understand where is this money that you're proposing we spend? >> the funds are held in international -- in banking institutions around the world. who in turn holds claims back on the treasuries of the major countries, the united states and the europeans principally. and so we have the ability to seize these assets and when we seize these assets, we can spend them as we see fit without any need for russian approval and

with strong precedent from cases like what took place in iraq. >> larry summers, great to talk to you. important message. thank you. next on "gps", while his war in ukraine is floundering, how is putin doing on the homefront. i'll talk to "the new york times" valerie hopkins who has a fascinating set of answers. with more confidence. freestyle librbre 2. try it for free at freestylelibre.us struggling with the highs and lows of bipolar 1? ask about vraylar. because you are greater than your bipolar 1,

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vladimir putin's war in ukraine is certainly not going as he intended. but on the homefront, his dreams may be coming true. that was the thrust of a terrific "new york times" artillery but the moscow reporters valerie hopkins and an ton troofski. valerie joins me from moscow. welcome, valerie. i want to start about talking about something i found interesting in reporting you've

done before this article and including this article, which is president biden has said a couple of times, i think, once the body bags start coming back, the russian people will stop supporting this war. or words to that effect. and what you found is that the body backs are coming back but it is actually increasing the support for the war. explain what is going on. >> well thank you very much, fareed, for having me and i wish i didn't have to talk about this with you today. but it is true. in my reporting, across russia what i found when talking to people, mothers of those who have been lost or relatives, people are finding that their losses are actually making them support the war even more. they're starting to feel it even more. and of course, the kremlin has refused to actually release the full statistical data of how

many people have been killed, how many soldiers have died in this war. you know, they've only released them intermittently and i believe the last full count was in september at 6,000. while western intelligence estimates that there have been 200,000 killed and wounded in this war of russians only. so, of course, many russians, most russians don't know the full extent of this. but my reporting and reporting by other colleagues who remain in russia and who have spoken to the mothers and relatives of these dead soldiers, find that this makes them supportive even more because, you know, they feel a concrete sense of loss. they do believe, the propaganda that the government has been pushing, not only for the past year but also before. but it has a really ramped up this year is that the west seeks to destroy russia and this is an existential struggle for russia's survival against the west. and they also are increasingly buying the line that actually

the west was preparing an invasion and putin was smart to take a preemptively invade ukraine. it is quite surprising and quite shocking. but this is where we are right now one year in. >> you talk also about a much broader transformation that is taking place in russia. this goes back a long way, the debate between russia and between the westernizers and what was the slavo files and saying that russia's destiny lies with the west and russia said it is its own distinct unique creature. you say that this war has helped almost finally in a very decisive way moved that debate in one direction, right? >> absolutely. well, as you read in the article, one of the businessmen closest to president putin expressed his joy that this war or his -- he expressed some

degree of pleasure we could say about the fact that this war continues as long as it did. as you know, initially when this was planned, it was planned as a blitzkrieg and they thought they would take kyiv in three days and change the government and just occupy. but instead, this has required a societal transformation and this businessman said this is great because, if the blitzkrieg had successed, we would more change into the society that putin wants. more liberals are either silenced or forced to flee, the more free speech is suppressed and the more it is possible to create educational cultural institutions and even civil society, into the type of organizations and bodies that the kremlin wants to see, which are traditional conservative and

essentially define themselves as the anti-thesis to the values that the west stands for. >> so in a sense it feels like the longer this war goes on, don't expect russia to feel that it is oh, my goodness, it is a big mistake. it is having the effect of making russians double down on this anti-western narrative and anti-western society? >> on the one hand, yes, i think in the near term that is the case. but i think, you know, what we've learned from russia's experience from other wars, the soviet invasion of afghanistan was something that many people were frustrated about and opposed to, but it took them years to organize and to truly be fed up and frustrated. i think a lot of this is actually apathy. and many of that is due to the fact that the economy has more or less remained normal. but it is possible that at a

s certain point there may be a tipping point. but how far along that might be, it is hard to say. >> valerie, this is terrific and important reporting. thank you. >> thank you very much, fareed. next on "gps", we'll introduce you to a new way of looking at the world and its governments in the worrisome age. it is called the atlas of impunity. it is absolutely fascinating. back with that in a moment. i brought in ensure max protein with 30 grams of protein. those who tried me felt more energy in just two weeks. uhhhh... here, i'll takthat. [woo hoo!] ensure max protein, with 30 grams of prote, one gram of sugar and nutrients for immu health.

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and now for the last look. in his elegant speech in warsaw promising that the west would not waiver or be divide and would not tire, president biden cast the conflict in ukraine in terms he has used before. a struggle between democracies and autocracies. but a group of distinguished scholars and former policymakers

have released say report that tries to categorize the world in more subtle and perhaps more important ways. the atlas of impunity released by david millband and theure asia group, impunity is the exercise of power without accountability. the commission of crimes without punishment. when the prevailing sense is the law is for suckers and impunity thrives when the imbalance of power is to great that the powerful think they do not have to follow the rules. the report ranks most of the world's nations along five dimensions. lack of government accountability, human rights abuses and environmental degradation, unfairness in the economy and the use of violence in internal and foreign conflicts. it largely draws on the work of other groups who have made indices such as the rule of law index and the economic redom

index, but the various scores are integrated to provide a much por powerful and complete picture. the lessons are fascinating. first, democracy does not guarantee a good score on the atlas of impunity. the report shines a light on democratic countries like turkey, mexico and india. which despite having free elections, score poorly on other dimensions like human rights. it is striking, for example, that on the overall index, india does worse than china and mexico does worse than vietnam. iraq is the seventh worst ranked country on the planet. a sobering reminder of the failure of america's effort to spread democracy in the middle east. the report conforms my description of the growing danger of ill liberal democracy that i first identified 25 years ago. america itself fairs poorly, coming in somewhere in the middle of the pack.

this is largely because it sc sc sc scores poorly on human rights and equality indicators. in general, the world's most powerful countries are not the most law and norm abiding with the exception of germany which ranks fifth best. the most useful revelation is there are many countries that are not democracies, but that score quite well on this index. in other words, they exercise power accountably and provide reasonably effective and fair government for their citizens. singapore scores better than india, israel and hungary and just slightly the united states. jordan and the united arab emirates do better than many democracies. these strong scores show why it is a mistake to use terms like free world in the west, groupings that exclude countries like these that often act responsibly. of course, russia scores

terribly and most of the regimes that rate abysmally are ou autocracies, which are afghanistan and following by syria and yemen and myanmar. but between the two obvious extremes, this report provides a wealth of nuance, helping us see the great tones in which the world is truly painted. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. care pt toto help guide her with the right care team behind her. the right plan promise only from unitedhealthcare. ♪ i like to move it, move it ♪ ♪ you like to... move it ♪ we're reinventing our network. ♪ ♪

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