this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the

united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. today we devote the program to that sobering anniversary. one year since russia's full-scale invasion of ukraine. ♪ ♪ >> i'll bring you my interview with the national security adviser jake sullivan and usaid administrator samantha powell about where the war and america's assistance go from here. also, who should foot the bill for the hundreds of billions of dollars in damage to ukraine? former treasury secretary larry summers says the answer is easy. listen to him explain his plan. then why putin's war in ukraine may not be proceeding as he hoped. ♪ ♪ >> the russian president may be getting exactly what he always wanted back home in russia.

"the new york times" valerie hopkins will explain. but first, here's my take. one year into russia's naked aggression against ukraine, it's become clear that neither side is strong enough to win the war nor weak enough to sue for peace. the conflict has settled into a stalemate. after making impressive gains, ukraine's armed forces have not made significant advances in months. russia, meanwhile, has dug into the territories it occupies and its further attacks are having little success so far. the numbers tell the story. according to a washington post analysis, russia occupied 70% of the territory when it launched the invasion in february 2022. it swept into eastern ukraine and in a month it was holding 22% of the country and then came

ukraine counter offensives which by mid-november had taken back about a third of those gains. in the last three months nothing significant has changed. ukraine and russia are both planning new moves, but it would take massive victories to fundamentally change the situation. to put it another way, ukraine would need to recover roughly twis as much territory as it was able to last year just to get it conquered since the 2022 invasion. russia's performance in the war has been poor, but it's doing better especially at holding territory. russia has been able to stabilize its economy which the imf projects will do better this year than the united kingdom or germany. russia is treating with such economic behemoths like china and india, because of these countries and many more, outside of the advanced technology sector, russia has access to all

of the goods and capital it lost through the western boycott. there now a huge world economy that does not include the west and russia can swim in those waters freely. the long-term costs of the war and the effects of the sanctions are real, but slow. this kind of isolation and pain rarely changes a dictatorship's policies. look at north korea, iran, cuba and venezuela. so what is the path forward? in the short run, there is only one answer for the west and its allies. give ukraine more weapons, if the decision has been made that putin's war of aggression must not be rewarded then take steps to make that a reality with every weapons system requested by ukraine, there is a pattern of ambivalence first, then delay and then finally agreement. why not send more sooner?

the next three months are crucial as the winter thaws and makes movements easier. all that said, however, it's difficult to imagine a world war ii style total victory. most wars end in negotiations. this one is unlikely to be different. the task for the west is to ensure that ukraine has enough success and momentum on the battlefield that it enters those negotiations with a very strong hand. only dramatic, ukrainian victories like cutting off crimea will likely bring putin to the negotiating table. is there a way to end the hostilities? on paper, yes. it's possible to imagine a cease-fire that returns all lanes captured since february 2022 to ukraine. those taken earlier like crimea in 2014 will be subject to international arbitration including local referendums that will be conducted by

international groups and not the russian government. in addition, ukraine would get security guarantees from nato. they would not apply to those disputed territories. that tradeoff, to put it simply, crimea and parts of the donbas for de facto nato and eu membership is one that could be sold to ukrainians because they would achieve their long-cherished goal of becoming part of the west. it could be acceptable to russia because it could claim to have protected some russian-speaking parts of ukraine. there are many who believe that the war can end with a total ukrainian victory. i hope so, but i doubt it. in 2021 russia was more than three times bigger than ukraine in population, almost 15 times bigger than gdp and spent ten times more on its defense budget. russians have been known to have a high capacity for pain in wartime. the soviet union lost 24 million people in world war ii compared

to america's 420,000, and while russia's economy is in slow decline ukraine's has fallen off a cliff. gdp contracted by 30% in 2022. the government is spending more than double what it takes in thanks to western aid. more than 13 million people are displaced, more than 8 million of them abroad. the war is taking place on ukrainian soil with its cities being bombarded to rubble and its factories razed and its people growing destitute. if it continues like this for years it is worth asking are we letting ukraine get destroyed in order to save it? go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my column this week and let's get started. ♪ ♪

to mark the first anniversary of russia's invasion i had the opportunity to interview jake sullivan and samantha power. sullivan is, of course, president biden's national security adviser and in that role, the man in charge of america's response to putin's war in addition to the war's other crisis that he deals with. powell is the administrator of usaid, the department that has the responsibility for among other things, humanitarian aid for ukraine. the setting was a town hall set in washington d.c., held a year after the invasion started. take a look. >> i want to first ask you, jake, this was really knowa extraordinary trip. the first time in history the u.s. president has entered a war zone that the united states did not control. so i've taken that overnight train to kyiv and you're going through poland and you're in a

war zone for a large part of it, so i'm guessing u.s. planes could not enter that war zone. what was that like for you there? what were you guys thinking? there was a period where the president was not protected the way the president normally is, right? the trip actually began with a long plane flight from washington and a stop over in ramstein in germany and we landed in poland and in fact, the president had to take an hour-long car ride in an unmarked suv and not his normal limo that we're all used to seeing with a very small motorcade. i pull up to the train station and board this train late at night in the dark for a 10-hour trip overnight to arrive in kyiv the following morning, and as you said, the united states didn't control the airspace, didn't control the growth fund. we ground, entering a country at war and subject to routine and repeated bombardments by the

russians and without any of the normal security capacity that would usually accompany a president. so we were heading into the unknown because this was unprecedented. the president was up much of the night not so much worried about his safety as he was worried about making sure that he would maximize his time on the ground with kyiv and that he would have the kind of conversations face-to-face with president zelenskyy and most importantly that he can say to the world from right there in kyiv that a year ago people were bracing for the fall of kyiv and a year later kyiv stands. ukraine stands, and america stands with kyiv and there is no more powerful way to send this message than to have the american president go do that. it was a mixture of deep anxiety and also a building pride about serving a president and being part of a country that is trying to support ukraine in its hour of need.

>> but, jake, there does seem to be a pattern. the ukrainians are asking for something. the administration is ambivalent and time passes and there is a clamor around it that builds and it's leaning toward it and finally delivers it and that's what happened with himares and patriots and fighter jets are now the issue. it feels like if you're going to do it three or four months later why not do it now given that speed is of the essence? what is going that always leads to this pattern of you do eventually say yes, but it's now four or six months later? >> first, fareed, wait that our military and intelligence community make to the president, that make decisions based on what they're confronting at that time. in the earlier weeks of the war what the iranians needed to

defend kyiv was anti-armor systems and basically missiles that could stop tanks in their tracks and couldn't roll over kyiv and stinger missiles to shoot down the helicopters that were bringing in paratroopers to try to take over the city from the air. in the second phase of the war, ukraine really neated artillery in the east to stop the more traditional advances of the russian military. as we head into the spring, what ukraine really needs is armor. infantry-fighting vehicles and yes, tanks and we are providing those. when it comes to f-16s it is important for the current phase of the war. this is important for the current phase of the war which is they're about to mount a significant counter offensive. from our perspective, f-16s are not the key capability for that offensive and it is the stuff that we are moving rapidly for the front lines now. f-16s are not a question for the short term fight. f-16s are a question for the long term defense of ukraine and

that's a conversation that president biden and president zelenskyy had. >> samantha powell let me ask you a question and it's something a lot of americans think about, and a lot of republicans have been clamoring about which is bfsh the war, ukraine was regarded as if you looked at various indices, a very corrupt country. there was a lot of corruption in the country and transparency and all those kinds of measures, how can you be sure that these massive amounts of aid that the united states and europe is sending into ukraine are getting to the people they need to get to, that there isn't corruption, graft, siphoning off. what kind of assurances can you give? >> one thing, just stepping back and recalling a year ago, putin's speech where he

described his motivation for invading ukraine, at the heart of it was the panic over the progress that ukraine was making to integrate itself to europe, for starters, to become more democratic and to take on this corruption fight because that endangered so many of his cronies' ill-gotten gains. so actually, what you've seen particularly since 2014 is the strengthening of a whole series of anti-corruption institutions within ukraine. are there panaceas for decades, generation where corruption was a major issue? absolutely not, but you've seen u.s. aid and other u.s. government actors throw their weight behind support for independent media and once this war broke out a year ago and getting flak jackets and cell phones to independent media and making sure they can survive a war and continue to report on what ukrainian authorities were doing in a critical way as a check and balance.

civil society organizations, judges -- we just launched a new initiative with the gao in the united states to help ukraine build out its supreme audit institution and that would be incredibly important reconstruction for the resources flowing in with regard to the very large investments in providing monthly, direct budget support so that health workers can be paid and educators can be paid and people with disabilities can get to support when the ukrainian budget is under such strain and such pressure. that, we do is basically on a reimbursable basis. we don't provide resources unless we see a receipt for the expenditure. at this point, we don't have any evidence that u.s. assistance is being misused or misspent. the key is not resting on anybody's good will or virtue. it's checks and balances, the rule of law and the integrity of officials and when something is spotted because there are going to be issues that that gets

smothered, that the people get fired and that they get prosecuted and what's amazing about this last year is the fight against corruption has been continuing. it's been continuing to pass laws on whistle-blower protection so that e-from curement so procurement is more visible to the rest of uses and that fight has to continue alongside the military fight. next on "gps," a moment in the town hall. a ukrainian soldier joined us live from the battlefield to ask a question of national security adviser jake sullivan.d you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

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his last name or his exact location, but he joined us from the east of ukraine just a few miles from russia's troops. igor, i know you have a question you want to ask jake sullivan. what would you like to know? >> yes, i have a very specific question for mr. sullivan. is the u.s. government planning or launching ammunition especially for ukraine? i mean 155 caliber shells and 120 caliber mines and missiles. will you consider this plan and if your answer is positive could you please tell me when are you going to realize this? thank you. >> first, igor, before i answer the question i just want to say that as you stand out on the front lines tonight, you are defending the freedom of your country, but as president biden said in warsaw, you are

defending freedom everywhere, so i want to say thank you for your bravery, your courage and for the men and women who are fighting with you. we are grateful for all that you do, the sacrifices that you are making and we can't even begin to imagine the difficulty and the trials that you've gone through. when we can do is everything in our power to get you the equipment and the ammunition that you need and you mentioned 155 millimeter artillery shells, 120 millimeter tank shells and other systems like the himars missiles that you also just discussed. one of the things that we are working hard at at president biden's direction is to increase the production of all of these types of ammunition. here in the united states, but also in nato countries so that the total supply of each of these different forms of ammunition grows month by month and we can continue to move to

the front lines, this ammunition and the quantities necessary to mount a successful defense and for you to take back territory that's been occupied by russia. this is not something we can do with the snap of a finger, but it's something that we are putting immense effort and resources into. >> yegor, thank you so much for joining us. we pray that you and your compatriots return home safely to your families. let's take a question from the audience. i want you to meet walter landgraph, he served in the u.s. army for 19 years and he has a question for administrator powell. >> thanks for the opportunity. what vital interest does the united states have in ukraine. from a national security perspective, it seems that avoiding nuclear war with russia is most important, however, it raises the possibility that nuclear escalation might occur. our strategy seems to rely on the rationality of vladimir

putin to not go nuclear. is this wise? >> thank you so much. you've heard president biden himself speak often to the importance of avoiding exactly that scenario. he's been very attentive to the risk of escalation and the strategy that has been pursued has been very measured, but what is at stake in ukraine are values and interests so core to the united states. imagine just wanting your freedom and your independence. this country is predicated on exactly those two values. imagine the counter factual when we walk away or we didn't show up in the first place and what would mean when a dictator who has shut down civil society, shut down independent media, shut down dissenting voices in his own country and just turned his sites on a neighbor and with impunity take over that country. i mean, what would that mean for our allies in europe?

what would that mean for our own security over time? so i think americans understand bullies and the importance of standing up to bullies, at the same time, again, we are very alert to the risks given that russia is a nuclear-armed power as you rightly say, but that is, again, how we are in the position that we are in now building a coalition of countries coming together making sure that this isn't just the united states and russia that this, in fact, is ukrainians on the front lines and ukrainians doing the fighting and a coalition of 50 countries rallying behind them and including today more than 140 countries at the u.n. signaling still a year into the war their support for ukraine's self-defense. >> jake, i've got to ask you one final question. we've talked all about the war, russia, ukraine. we haven't talked about what's going on in the united states. do you worry when you hear voices like governor desantis,

senator pauly, senator vance questioning why the united states is doing this, asking why we should be spending in money and wondering whether we should be taking a more neutral position? >> what i find so interesting about that perspective, we can't operate in the world because we have to operate at home is it presents a fundamentally false choice that is not at all who america is. we can both invest at home and provide for the safety and well-being of the american people and we can lead in the world and that's what we have done at our best under democratic and republican presidents for decades. the united states is capable as a powerful, self-assured nation. we have the resources, we have the talents and the energies of our people to solve our own problems here and president biden has done more in two years to invest in this country to build jobs, to provide for the social safety net, to deal with the problems that people sit

around their kitchen tables and think about while at the same time mobilizing a coalition of free nations to support the values that americans hold so dear. so what i would say to those senators is, yes, let's do these things at home, but are you saying that america is incapable of also helping to serve a powerful force for good in the world? i don't think that the american people believe that. i think the american people are capable of doing both and at best that is exactly what we have done and i believe that a lot of the moments that i've seep in ukraine from those flags waving in small towns to the people in the u.s. government who are trying to support folks like yegor on the front lines, that has been america at its best and so i think that there's a pessimism in this argument that these senators are making. president biden has an optimistic view which is we can do it, and we should do it and

we are doing it and as a result, i believe that democracies in the world are getting stronger and not weaker, and autocracies are getting weaker and not stronger and that is better for every single person in this country. >> next on "gps" larry summers, how we can get russia to pay for too. (vo) get internet that keeps your business ready for anything. from verizon. even the most chill of parents know when it's time to go into protect mode. nothing kills more viruses on more surfaces than lysol disinfectant spray. ♪ meet a future mom, a first-time mom and a seasoned pro. this mom's one step closer to their new mini-van! yeah, you'll get used to it. this mom's depositing money with tools on-hand. cha ching. and this mom, well, she's setting an appointment here,

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after last year's invagsion the united states and its allies have worked to isolate russia's economy and they banned imports of russian goods. big companies suspended operations inside russia. at the same time, other countries like china, india and turkey ramped up trade with russia and russia's central bank took steps to prop up its currency. here to help us understand the full impact on putin's war chest is the economist larry summers,

former president of harvard. he served as treasury secretary under bill clinton and under barack obama. larry, welcome. explain to us first, is economics really central to understanding where we are in the struggle with russia? >> i think it is, fareed. war starts and wars of maneuver and that's what putin hoped it would be and he would win quickly, but they evolved to be wars of attrition, and when it's wars of attrition the economic strength on the two sides, the capacity to mobilize and to produce weaponry and to bring troops to the front become central and that's the concern right now that this has evolved towards a war of attrition and that's going to make what happens to the russian economy and of even greater importance

what happens to the ukrainian economy central to how this plays out. >> when you look at the bottom line figure and even though there have been sanctions and the central bank reserves were frozen and technology denied, the russian economy this year is set to grow by 0.3% according to the imf. that means it will actually do better than the uk or germany as i pointed out at the top of the show. is it fair to say that the economic sanctions have not had the bite that people expected? >> russian economic sanctions haven't really bitten that hard because less than half the world's people have been involved in countries that are part of the sanks and a large p part of the gdp. china india and turkey, more than a third have not been part of the sanctions, and if you look at russia's neighbors their

trade with us have ramped up considerably in the last year which suggests that they're serving as a weigh station for goods to get into russia. so there are real limits to the damage we can do to russia economically. we should probably stiffen up on the price gaps and there are financial areas that can tighten, but the most important part of winning the economic aspect of the war of attrition is doing much more to support the economy of ukraine which, by some measures, has declined by 40%. >> so the build in order to do this and then to build ukraine and to build out those apartment houses which have been bombed out and the cities that have been devastated and those people, millions and millions who are now destitute, that is a very, very big bill. where is the money going to come from? >> i'll tell you where a large part of it should come from. it should come from russian

state assets. russia took german assets to pay for its reconstruction after german aggression after world war ii. resources of iraq, after iraq went into kuwait were seized to support the reconstruction of kuwait and also to compensate other nations further away who had been victims of that conflict and that needs to be the ultimate source of support in ukraine. it needs to be an ultimate source of support for countries taking refugees from ukraine, and it needs to be an ultimate source of support for countries in the global south and the developing world that have paid and suffered enormously from higher food and energy prices because of russian aggression. i believe that if this sets a

precedent that countries that engage in naked cross-border aggression will lose their state assets, that's a precedent that i think is a very healthy precedent to set. >> now how would this work technically? help people understand where is this money that we're proposing we spend? >> the funds were held in international -- in banking institutions around the world who, in turn, hold claims back on the treasurys of the major countries, the united states and the europeans principally and so we have the ability to seize these assets and when we seize these assets we can spend them as we see fit without any need for russian approval and with

strong precedent from cases like what took place in iraq. >> larry summers, pleasure to talk to you. important message. thank you. next on "gps" while his war in ukraine is floundering, how is putin doing on the home front? i will talk to "the new york times" larry hopkins who has fascinating answers. go betty! ♪ let's be more than our allergies! zeize the day. with zyrtec. join me in the finish 24 hour challenge. start by cooking a lasagna. skip the rinse and load your dishes. 24 hours later when your dishwasher is full, let finish quantum clean your dishes. if the stains aren't gone, your lasagna is on finish.

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including this article which is president biden has said a couple of times, i think, once the body bags start coming back the russian people will stop supporting this war or words to that effect, and what you found is that the body bags are coming back, but it is actually increasing the support for the war. explain what's going on. >> well, thank you very much, fareed, for having me, and i wish i didn't have to talk about this with you today, but it's tru. in my reporting across russia what i found when talking to mother of those who have been lost or relatives, people are finding that their losses are actually making them support the war even more. they're starting to feel it even more, and of course, the kremlin has refused to actually release the full statistical data of how many people have been killed,

how many soldiers have died in this war. you know, they've only released them intermittently, and i believe the last full count was in september at 4,000 while they estimate there's been 200,000 wounded and killed in this war, russians only. most russians don't know the full extent of this, but my reporting and the reporting by other colleagues who remain in russia and who have spoken to the mothers and relatives of these dead soldiers find that this makes them more supportive because they feel a concrete sense of loss. they do believe the propaganda that the government has been pushing not only for the past year, but also before, but it has really ramped up this year that the west seeks to destroy russia and this is an existential struggle for russia's survival against the

west and they are also increasingly buying the line and that putin was smart to preemptively invade ukraine. it is quite surprising and quite shocking, but this is where we are right now one year in. >> you talk also about a much broader transformation that is taking place in russia. this goes back a long way, the debate between russia and the debate with the westernizers and what used to be called the slavophiles and russia is its own distinct unique creature and you say this war has helped finally in a very decisive way moved that debate in one direction, right? >> absolutely. well, as you read in the article, one of the businessmen -- very close to president putin expressed his joy that this war or he expressed some degree of

pleasure, we can say, about the fact that this war continues as long as it did, you know? as you know, initially when this was planned, and it was planned as a blitzkrieg and they thought they could take kyiv in three days and change the government and just occupy, but instead, this has required a societal transformation and con stan insaid, this is great because if the blitzkrieg had succeeded we would still have these liberal elements of our society and the more this goes on, the more it changes into the society that putin wants. the more free speech is suppressed and the more it's possible to create educational, cultural institutions and even civil society into the type of organizations and bodies that the kremlin wants to see which are traditional, conservative and essentially define themselves as the antithesis to

the values that the west professes to stand for. >> so, in a sense, it feels to me like the longer this war goes on, don't expect russia to feel that it's, oh, my goodness, it's a big mistake and it's having the effect of making russians double down on this anti-western narrative and anti-western society. >> on the one hand, yes. i think in the near-term that is the case, but i think what we've learned from russia's experience from other wars, the soviet unvation of afghanistan was something that many people were frustrated about and opposed to, but it took them years to organize and to truly be fed up and frustrated. i think a lot of this is actually apathy, and much of that is due to the fact that the economy has sort of more or less remained normal and it's possible that at a certain point there may be some tipping point.

it's just how far along that might be, it is really hard to say. >> valerie, this is really terrific and important reporting. thank you. >> thank you very much, fareed. next on "gps," we will introduce you to a new way of looking at the world and its governments and its worry some age. it is called the atlas of impunity. it is absolutely fascinating. back with that in just a moment. i went on their website, uploaded everything, and i was blown away by what they could do. getrefunds.com has helped businesses get over a billion dollars and we can help your business too. qualify your business for a big refund in eight minutes. go to getrefunds.com to get started. powered by innovation refunds.

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in his elegant speech in warsaw promising that the west would not waiver or be divided and would not tire, president biden cast the conflict in ukraine in terms he has used before. a struggle between democracies and autocracies. but a group of distinguished scholars and former policymakers have released a report that tries to categorize the world in more subtle and perhaps more important ways.

the atlas of impunity released by former british foreign secretary david mill band, the chicago council on global affairs and eurasia group, impunity, they say, is the exercise of power without accountability, the commission of crimes without punishment. when the prevailing sense is the law is for suckers and impunity thrives when the imbalance of power is to great that the powerful think they do not have to follow the rules. the report ranks most of the world's nations along five dimensions. lack of government accountability, human rights abuses, environmental degradation, unfairness in the economy and the use of violence in internal and foreign conflicts. it largely draws on the work of other groups who have made indices such as the rule of law index, world freedom index, eke no, ma'amic index, but the

various scores are integrated to provide a much more powerful and complete picture. the lessons are fascinating. first, democracy does not guarantee a good score on the atlas of impunity. the report shines a light on democratic countries like turkey, mexico and india, which despite having free elections, score poorly on other dimensions like human rights. it is striking, for example, that on the overall index, india does worse than china and mexico does worse than vietnam. iraq comes in the seventh worst-ranked country on the planet, a sobering reminder of the failure of america's effort to spread democracy in the middle east. the report confirms my description of the growing danger of ill liberal democracy that i first identified 25 years ago. america itself fairs poorly, coming in somewhere in the middle of the pack. this is largely because it

scores poorly on conflict and violence measure, but also on human rights and equality indicators. in general, the world's most powerful countries are not the most law and norm abiding with the exception of germany which ranks fifth best. the most useful revelation is there are many countries that are not democracies, but that score quite well on this index. in other words, they exercise power accountably and provide reasonably effective and fair government for their citizens. singapore, for example, scoresing better than india, israel, hungary and even, just slightly, the united states. jordan and the united arab emirates do better than many democracies. these strong scores show why it is a mistake to use terms like free world in the west, groupings that exclude countries like these that often act responsibly. of course, russia scores terribly and most of the regimes that rate abysmally are

autocracies. the country with the worst score is unsurprisingly afghanistan, followed by syria, yemen and myanmar. the best are the seven northern most european countries. but between the two obvious extremes, this report provides a wealth of nuance, helping us see the great tones in which the world is truly painted. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. today we unite with the elements that have always been at our core. as every action counts, we are committed to building vehicles that contain an average of 40% recycled materials. repurposing waste, such as old fishing nets. and, going all electric by 2030. land. sea. air. join us on our journey to a more sustainable future.

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