we maybe about to see what happens when someone is shot on 5th avenue. i'm michael smerconish. donald trump has been invited to

testify in an investigation into a hush money scheme involving stormy daniels. that's believed to be a precursor to an indictment. potential defendants are required to be notified and invited to appear before a grand jury weigh anything charges. it charged, trump would become the first former president to be indicted. but would it slow his current presidential quest? i say not a chance, at least not based opt this case alone. any charges here would stem from the $130,000 in payments made to daniels during the 2016 campaign. apparently she had been ready to share her story with the national inquirer. but the tabloid's publisher was a trump friend who instead h helped broker a deal with the lawyer. i long thought it was the weakness of the trump investigations. first the events of january 6th.

the mishandling of documents, the election interference including the so-called perfect phone call to secretary of state and fourth, this, the stormy daniels hush money. merrick garland appointed a special counsel to look at january 6th and mar-a-lago. meanwhile, the georgia special grand jury investigating election interference recommended indictments for more than a dozen people. it's enough to keep awake any presidential candidate, but when it comes to donald trump, no matter what he steps in, somehow he seems to emerge smelling like a rose. while he was being investigated for his handling of classified documents, a process that included the execution of a search warrant at his home, classified information was found in the homes of mike pence and joe biden, not an apples to apple comparison, but enough to muddy the court of public opinion and make it seem like he's not alone.

the grand jury foreperson gave media interviews casting a sha doe on the work of that investigation. and giving trump's lawyers a basis to question the process. i have long thought the mar-a-lago case was the most perilous to trump. the facts seemed pretty straight forward and damning. the prosecution based on stormy daniels, not so much. the money was paid in 2016, 7 years ago, and any prosecution would have to rely on a is statute of limitations having been told in office. that's unprecedented and untested. it would rely on a novel legal theory, the uniting of two cases and a violation of state election law. only by connecting the first to the second would it be a felony if that strategy should fail, the da would be left with a 7-year-old misdemeanor case based on sex, brought against a former president and current

presidential candidate who leads husband own pear's polls. i thought we learned sex scandals dent tank a president's popularity. also i find it curious that alvin bragg having decided not to prosecute trump in other pa matters would choose this hill to die. on. when he announced he would not move forward, two lead prosecutors quit the department. one, mark pom rans, leak ed his resignation letter to the press, and said bragg's predecessor the facts weren't in prosecution and to prevent evidence and seek an indictment of trump and other defendants as soon as reasonably possible. he just published a book about this. when he won a criminal case for fraud against the trump corporation and trump payroll corporation, he did not pursue trump personally. instead, he seems to be honing

innen opt much small er malfeasance. it should be noted even after trump left office and shed his immunity, the federal investigation of the daniels case, that which had sent former attorney michael cohen to prison, in which trump referred to as individual number one, was not prosecuted by the u.s. attorney in the southern district of new york, who instead took a pass. now trump seek ss to exploit al this by crying witch hunt. at truth social he said, i did absolutely nothing wrong. i never had a an affair with storm you daniels. nor would i would wanted to. this is a political witch hunt trying to take down a leading candidate in the republican party while at the same time also leading all democrats in the polls, et cetera. you have to wonder what merrick garland, jack smith and willis were all thinking when news broke that it's alvin bragg who might get the first bite at the apple. if each of the others is seriously contemplating

indicting trump, you'd have to think they would rather the first claim be the strongest. the stormy daniels case sets the wrong tone. it's the one that most plays into trump's claim of a politically motivated prosecution whether that's true or not. it could define all those that toll. all in the context of a presidential race well underway. ron desantis arrived on friday. it's time for all these prosecutors to play their hand or fold. joining me now is a former federal prosecutor, legal affairs columnist for politico, cohost of the podcast "it's complicated." welcome wac. what's your take on this week's developments? >> well, i agree with you, michael. this is the weakest of the cases against trump. that said, i think it causes problems for trump. in other words, it's potential

charges it is always difficult to try to find a multiprong war. . anything trump says or does in relation to this case make it is more complicated if you u ultimately faces charges in fullton county and elsewhere. certainly he will. >> if in fact he's indicted on multiple fronts, does it matter which goes first? fbz to lead with the week might taint the following? >> it's more complicated. there's a dabs done to try to slow down one case and speed up another they want the trial to go earlier. i agree certainly jack smith would prefer these other

prosecutors aren't out there. i'm sure some of the prosecutors will say this the r. kelly case where didn't want all of other prosecutors charging as well. it's part of how the system works. >> why to you think bragg having passed on what you and i regard as better cases would have chosen this one to hone in on? >> it's interesting. i originally thought that alvin bragg made a very brave choice by deciding to take a pass on what appeared to be stronger charges against trump. these are the charges that ultimately were taken up by the civil case. but later on, i think he was misleading whether or not that investigation was still ongoing. it just made me wonder whether or not public pressure, because he's obviously an elected official, had something to do with that.

i don't know whether it had something to do with him deciding to go forward, but it's a legitimate question. >> ron desantis was in iowa yesterday should have said nikki haley was in iowa yesterday. donald trump will be there monday. what concern or consideration is the fact this this race is beginning? to both merrick garland and jack smith, how does that impact their decision making and timetable? >> it's a great question. it could cause merrick garland to point to jack smith in the first place. with mr. smith has to weigh is whether or not this is foing to be seen as an atelt by the justice department to impact the presidential race and consider the long-term impact on the department because ultimately the department of justice wants the public to have confidence that it's outside of politics. i agree with you that the mar-a-lago case was by far the strongest. it's clear that jack smith

working up to january 6th case this an aggressive fashion as well, i think if you he indicts soon, it won't be seen as too close to the election, but he's on a timetable. >> thank you as always. we appreciate your expertise. >> thank you. what are your thoughts? hit me up on social media ul read some throughout the program. what do we have? from the world of -- i don't see it. maybe it's twitter. maybe it's not. we'll dpo right to the poll question. there it is. every legal development with trump bolsters his claim that prosecution has morphed into a persecution and improves his chances of reelection. yeah, he has good luck. who would have thought as we were debating ask discussing the fact that the fed said executed a search warrant at mar-a-lago that joe biden and mike pence

would be sitting on classified evidence. it's not an apples to apples comparison. they cooperated, he didn't, he obstructed. but it muddies the cause in the court of public opinion. still to come, the biggest u.s. bank failure in more than a decade and the second biggest ever. regulators seized sill is con valley bank citing insolvency is. where did the $200 billion in assets go? this brings us to the poll question. please go there. you can use the qr code it you choose. answer this week's poll question. is the failure of silicon valley bank an ice latd event or will there be broader financial contagion? go cast your b ballot. market's doing, he's ready. and that's..... how you collect t coins. your money never stops working for you with merrill, a bank of america company.

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because when you experience europe on a viking longship, you'll spend less time getting there and more time being there. viking. exploring the world in comfort. the fall of silicon valley bank is the second biggest bank collapse in u.s. history and it sent is shock waves from silicon valley to wall street to main street. svb was a tech lender and held more than $200 billion in assets. it was hit by a bank run and a capital crisis and rapid rising interest rates.

the failure sent bank stocks plummeting. customers withdrew $42 billion in deposits by the end of thursday. in massachusetts customers were turned away from accessing their cash and were told to colt wac on monday. deposits are ensure d by the fdc up to $250,000. the fdic said all depositors will have full access by no later than monday morning and pay uninsured depositors an advanced dividend within the next week. for corporation, it's a different story. roku held $487 million, a quarter of its cash, at svb. and roku said most of its deposits with the bank are uninsured. could this the second biggest u.s. financial institution failure since the crisis of 2008 lead to a larger systemic failure? that is this week's poll question. go cast a ballot. if the failure of the bank an isolated event or be broader

financial contagion. joining me to discuss is aaron cline, senior fell low at the brookings institution and former deputy stapt secretary for economic policy at the treasury department. what's your answer to this week's poll question? i isolated or more con toy on? >> i don't think it's going to lead to a horrible disease that's going to bring down the financial system, as we saw in 2007 and 2008. however, i'm not it's completely an isolated incident. silicon valley bank isn't the first to go under this week. silver gate had leaned heavily into crypto. there are a couple more dominos that could fall. i'm not sure this is a completely isolated one off event, but i also think the regulators have been tell ing u that st the contagion is

contained within parts of the financial system and silicon valley bank is big, but it's not like other banks of its size. so they have a different business model. >> i read nearly all, i don't know how this can be true, but nearly all their depositors are this access of their limit. does that sound right to you? >> it does because this is a $200 billion bank, which is a large regional. the big banks that you see in large portions of america, those are about the same size, but they have about a thousand branches. silicon value' only had 16 branches. how could that be? they didn't take that much money from regular consumers. they took it more from companies. they banked startups. as they got bigger, they kept those relationships. roku is aerfect example. so companies tend to have money in access of deposit insurance.

whereas ordinary americans regular viewers rarely have more than $250,000 in the bank account. >> the "wall street journal" today raises the exquestion of w will the government respond. i want to read you a paragraph. if svb was doomed, it's better to let it fail than have the government bail it out, despite what one hedge fund lord suggested this week. didn't we learn from the 2008 crisis that the feds rescue encouraged everyone to leave that lehman brothers would be rescued too. your reaction? >> i would say the following. the right answer for the number of banks to fail on a given year is greater than zero. if you have no bank failing,

then you probably have bigger problems in the economy. the first time in american history we went a year without a bank failure was 2005. 2006 was the second year. the regulators told us that they won. this was great regulation. no one was failing. the system couldn't be safer. banks take different types of risks. some of them fail. that being said, you do need to be careful that the failure is born by the loss of the risk takers at the bank and less so by companies that are just seeking a bank to do their general business. i'm very concerned with how regulators handle the explosive growth of silicon valley bank and its reliance on unusual funding sources to maintain and handle that fwroet. i think there are a lot of important questions to be asked as we uncover this failure and lessons to be learned.

>> thank you fsh the insight. we appreciate your expertise. >> pleasure to be on. more social media reaction from the world of twit ter. what do we have? we don't use money in heaven. that's right, i keep forgetting. you're quoting the right movie, but the wrong scene. the right scene is the run on bailey building and loan. a color rised vergsz. we're showing a color rised version. more to the point. remember what ends up happening, george has to explain, i don't have your money here. it's in her mortgage. and then remember ms. davis is the one who says how much do you need. she says, $1750 and he gives her a kiss and a hug.

please dpo to smer conish.com ad cast a ballot in the poll question. is the failure of svb an isolated event or broader contagion? up ahead, four americans that went to mexico wound up getting kidnapped, two of them killed. rising health care costs have led to a boom in such medical tourism. there's a cottage industry, i deny know anything about it. more on what's going on in these mexican border towns from someone who lives right there. ♪ ♪ ♪ voltaren. the joy of movement. ♪ all ross the country, people are working hard to build a better future.

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despite the deadly kidnapping of four americans, a medical tourism trip to mexico, u.s. citizens are still flooding the southern border for low-cost cosmetic surgery. data shows more than a million americans go to mexico every year for medical tourism. the mexican government says

medical tourism brought in $137 headlight in 2021. in fact, it's so common there that these dedicated traffic lane at the san diego border designed to speed american medical tourists into mexico. these people are traveling to what's fwoen mexico's health clusters where dental procedures, cosmetic procedures, veterinary care are typically cheaper than in the united states, on average. americans can save up to 660% o the most common procedures. the more frequented and reliable destinations are cancun and tijuana. there's an area known as molar city for the 300 dental offices there. but it's not considered a primary medical travel destination mainly because there are no internationally accredited medical centers or

specialty clinics in the immediate region. but that is where this group of american friends were so one could get a tummy tuck. the procedure costs about $9,000 in the united states, but it's half that price in mexico. other examples include a tooth implant with an acrylic crown that could cost $3400 in the u.s. and less than $170 in mexico. a coronary artery bipass would be $73,000 here. it's $27,000 there. overall, up to 70% of the medical tourism trips to mexico are for dental care. 15% for cosmetic care. the remaining 10% are for a variety of procedures led by orthopedic care. as for security, there are shuttles provided for patients crossing at the texas border, although americans prefer to arrive by private car so they can shop and dine at the restaurants. officials also say there are federal security forces to guard the medical district in addition to state and local police.

the founder of the group patients beyond borders says that since the kidnappings, he's been inundated by requests for people seeking medical care as cross the border and not expressed concern about the violence because the risks are just low. joining me is katie monroe, she lives in texas near the border and has seen the practice firsthand. tell me about what you know of this. >> good morning, michael. it's not a weird thing for anybody in the surrounding communities to go there for d dental surgeries, for dental work such as fillings. it's pretty normal. it's a lot more affordable than it is here in the states. and honestly, a lot of the dentists that work there have gotten certifications here in the united states and chose to run their business this their home. >> i was going to ask how do you have confidence in this, how do you know you're receive ing the

standard of care, but you're answering that question. you can look at the websites and see the accreditation, the background of these particular practitioners. >> yeah, and a lot of us aren't even going that route of picking out a dentist. you usually know somebody, a family member, a friend that goes, oh, i have a dentist i could recommend and tell you where his office is. i have had all my work done this. you usually take their advice and go, cool, let me get their information. and that that's the one you don't want to go with, there's many other options in that area you can pick from. >> i was blown away by discussing this on radio and receiving so many calls from so many people, you included, who said this is no big deal. this is what we do. we live in the border communities and save a lot of money by going over there. i was unaware of the common

usage of this, and also the fact that people will make a day of it. you go over, you have dental work done, go to a restaurant and have a margarita. >> yeah, have a margarita, do a little shopping. aside from just the dental work, there are people that will go over for medications. you can get over the counter like antibiotics. they cost less there and you can bring them back legally. if you need antibiotics, it's a good choice to go there and get them. >> given the horrible case that we're all familiar with from this week, what's your level of concern? is it going to change the frequency with which a million americans cross the border for medical treatment in mexico? >> i think it might change temporarily. my wife showed me an article written since this occurred with the four americans that the sales have been done about 50% in the past couple days just because of so much national attention on it.

but i wouldn't say that it's any less safe than traveling to a larger city in america or abroad. not knowing the language and not knowing your way around, there's always going to be a level of risk. >> katie, nice to see you. thank you for your insight. >> thanks so much. checking in on more social media reaction. what you have? >> it's truly sad that people feel compelled to seek medical care that it's so ebs pence i have for all. get there's a lesson here about the united states health care system. but to hear katie tell it, it's not fsbeen inferior. i looked at the credentials. and the data i don't think supports the view it's so inherently dangerous. i know this one case just happened, but maybe it's not all driven by the factors you identify.

up ahead, nine years ago this week, mh 370 vanished despite a search costing hundreds of millions of dollars, they never found the plane. what do we know of its fate? plus if donald trump doesn't win the nomination, could he still up end the race by running as a third party candidate? thot if you do a close reading of several state laws in place. they are called sore loser laws. please go to smerconish.com and register for the free daily newsletter. answer this week's poll question. is the failure of civil con valley bank an isolated event or broader financial contagion? toe our money. i keep eating all these chia seeds. i could live to be 100. we work with empower, even if we do live to 10100 we don't have to worry. eh, not worried. take control of your financncial future to empower what's next. when it comes to reducing sugar in your family's diet, the more choices,

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sglrchlts . 2014, the launch of the cnn program. also the day more important ly that mh 370 disappeared. which marked the start of one of the biggest aviation mysteries of all time. the plane carried 239 passengers and crew members it was set to arrive that morning after departing, gut has never been seen since. coverage then took over our air waves and everybody else's for months after that despite launching the biggest search in history, nothing was found of the aircraft. theories on how a plane could vanish have gripped the world for almost a decade, but so far none have been proven. nets flick is streaming a brand new docuseries investigating the still unsolved mystery.

jeff wise is an aviation journalist who plays an important role in the netflix series. he's the author of the book taking of mh 370. i invested the three hours. i'm not sorry i did. i learned a lot. but at the end, we still don't know. >> we still don't know. that's the point. in the months that followed the investigators performed this mathematical calculation that told them where the plane went. and they devoted a year's long search to scanning the seabed really amazing the water is as deep as three miles the size of great britain and the plane was not there. this is really what the docuseries is trying to tackle. how do we reconcile those facts. how can they have performed this

really rigorous analysis and yet failed to find the plane. what could have happened? >> i'm going to put up a map of that part of the world and ask jeff wise the question, is there even consensus on what body of water it went down in? >> think there's kind of the main theory and then there's everything else. the main consensus view is that the plane turned south because the captain had plotted out this very elaborate murder-suicide scheme. it flew south and went into this area. that's why the australian government spent hundreds of millions of dollars searching this area. a big commitment. but then there's other theories, including my theory, which i attempt to piece together an alternative explanation that also fits with the actual scientific evidence in hand. in which i sort of say there's

this kind of farfetched series of coincidences, which could result in the plane going north to kazakhstan. >> you referenced the pilot. he had a flight simulatorer in his home. that took on a nefarious connotation. what's the bottom line about the pilot? >> you know, it's one of those thing where is it depends on who you ask. there's a lo of people that think he was going through a troubled marriage and he was a lech and has psychological problems. the people who know him best and had the most access to his family and trends say he was a very emotionally balanced guy. he was really welliked his marriage was strong. he was looking forward to retirement. he put up videos of helping to are repair your leaky windows. just looking at pictures of him, he seems like a chill guy. he was very popular. he was regarded as an excellent pilot. i did a story the following year

about a young german pilot who flew his plane into the alps. he was deeply troubled. he had been pulled from flying duty for psychological problems. he had searches on his computer of searching for how to commit suicide. he searched mh 370 almost like this incident inspired him. but there's a different psychological there. the human brain is so unfathomable at some level. >> jeff, quick answer, is there still an active investigation? if not, why not? >> it's a cold case basically. the files still exist. the people who looked into it are still around, but they have sort of put it on the back burner and are waiting to see if anything happens. i hope this will shake the tree. there are still questions that need to be asked. there's some really hard realities that need to be faced.

how come the plane wasn't there? people think it's a big ocean and they didn't find it because the ocean is too big. that's not really correct. they had data with a known margin of error attached to it. if the plane had flown south, they really should have found it. >> if it were a movie, we would be disbelieving and say, too fan it's a call could never happen. jeff wise, thank you so much. i really appreciate it. >> thank you. still to come, the gop race heating up. on friday ron desantis introduced himself in friday. donald trump will head to that state on monday. if one of them loses the nomination, can they then run as a third party candidate? the expert answer that you're going to hear in a moment might surprise you. please go answer the poll question at smerconish.com. is the fall jury of silicon valley bank a an isolated incident or will there be a broader contagion?

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can donald trump run as an independent or third party candidate if he first fails to win his party's nomination? it's a question circulating throughout the republican party and political media. if trump were deciding to run, it would make for an interesting race, but you can't just run, lose and come back because of one obstacle, sore loser laws. a new study ub lished says such a candidate would be denied valid access in 28 states totaling 290 votes if sore loser

laws are applied as written. this report is titled if you ain't first, you're last. one of the co-authors joins me now. he's a practicing attorney and professor at the college of william and mary. thank you for being here. share with me the conclusion beyond which i have described. you took a look at all 50 state laws and what did you find? >> so in 28 state, the sore loser laws would prohibit somebody who lost the primary from running as an independent or a third-party candidate. for somebody like donald trump, what that means if it he were able to get ballot acts is in every state that he basically won in either '16 or '20, less the ones that would bar him under the sore loser law, he would only win 81 electoral votes. that puts a road block. >> a felon looked at this issue and came to a different

conclusion. he thought it was only south dakota and texas that would have a sore loser law. why do you think that analysis is wrong and yours is right? >> richard didn't look at laws, statutes, regulations. he only looked historically and said can i find instances where someone sought a nomination and ran as a third-party candidate. while it's true there are some, in particular probably the best one would be john anderson in 1980, i think the modern environment 40 years after john anderson did t i think the republican party would look very differently at a trump third-part run if he were not the republican nominee and look to take advantage of these laws and challenge his access to the ballot in those 28 states. >> jason, what would happen if trump or anyone else for that matter were to run for a nomination and not get it, and then try and advance a write mf in campaign? >> so write-in laws are very different.

they vary across the country. some states would accept those votes. some states would say the sore loser law apollutes. we're not going to count those. i haven't done a separate study, but that would be harder. the number of candidates who get elect ed using a write-in campaign for major national office is slim to none. >> why do we have sore loser laws? >> sore loser laws are designed about 100 years ago or so, and they kind of protect the party nominees from somebody who lost this a political party primary and says, you want to run in the general any way. the idea if you lost, you lost. you don't get a second bite of the aptal and won a primary. >> i would argue they are outdated to the extent they served a useful purpose. where gal up says 42% of the count truss regards themselves as independent, they are a lot of us who get shut out of the

primary process. a lot of moderate candidates who can't emerge in a primary, i think, could be viable in a general election. . but are often procolluded from coming back. >> that's probably right. but keep in mind the sore loser laws protect the republican and democrat you can primary processes and frankly it's republicans and democrats that control the legislatures in nearly every state in the country. so changing those laws would be very difficult. >> right, it's like term limits. there's consensus to have term limits. we need the people in washington to agree with us about term limits and they don't. you get the final word. >> again, i think our study shows it would be difficult to kpobl for donald trump to run as a third-party candidate it he loses the republican primary. >> jason, thanks for the work that went into is and your willingness to discuss it. . hang on. here's a social media reaction.

maybe we'll answer together. put it up on the screen. if trump runs third party and he gains enough electoral votes to block the others from hitting 270, then it goes to the house and trump could win outright. your thought? >> it's been 100 plus years since we have had an election go to the house. i would be surprised if donald trump could win enough states to actually make that happen as a third party. >> can i add, and you correct me if i'm wrong, if trump today said i'm out of the republican primary process. i'm today announcing i'm running third party. that he could do, correct? >> possibly. but keep in mind he's already file d a declaration of candidae us is with the fec that says he's seeking the republican nomination. for states that have february or march primaries, there's a good argument that he's already affiliated with the republican party for the purposes of those state laws.

>> i'll bet he appreciates all the free legal advice you just gave him, this he better win the republican primary or he's done. thank you. i appreciate your time. >> thank you. still to come, more of your best and worst social media comments and the final result. please go vote. go to smerconish.com and tell me is the failure of svb, is that an isolated event or will there be broader financial contagion? results in a moment. i was always the competive one in our family... 't my sister signed up for unit healthcare medicare advantage.

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before the poll results, i have a test for you. put something on the screen, you're going to shout out loud what you see. ready? here we go. what do you see? the car's owner is a vegan. he says it's about his love of tofu and his attempt to lobby people to. stop using animal products. the state bureau of motor vehicles saud it could have a because the license plate is owned by the state. the state then offered him a plate that reads v3 gan, but the motorist said, no thanks and just got a standard plate. what were you thinking? here are the results of the poll question from smerconish.com this week. it has to do with svb.

might it be part of a broader contagion? 56% of more than 25,000 say it is an isolated event and we hope that they are correct. social media, what else came in? there was this. these people can't get trump out of their head after two and a half years. another dog chasing its tail. i assume pete phillips means the prosecutors can't get thunderstorm out of their head. at the bd of my opening commentary, i said something about it's time to wrap up those investigations because we don't want them budding right up against the 2024 election. thank you for watching. happening now in the newsroom