close this close story with anderson cooper premieres tonight at eight on cnn. this is

gps. the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you from new york. today on the program. exclusive interview with the secretary of treasury janet yellen. is inflation defeated. how likely is a recession? will america's small banks survive? are the sanctions against russia really biting? i'll ask her all that and more. also highly classified documents from the pentagon. leaked on the internet. military plans in the ukraine war have been revealed. allies like south korea and israel are dismayed. we will tell you what you need to know about this burgeoning scandal, but david sanger and mark hertling, thank you very much.

finally america's immigration crisis from an angle rarely ever seen. cnn got exclusive access inside a harrowing trip from south america towards the united states on foot. startling is the sheer number of children. but first here's my take. last week , i argued against banning tiktok and talking to people about the platform. i came to see that the real concern most had was not about tiktok's chinese ownership, but rather just how scarily addictive it and much of social media is that is true and deeply worrying, and we should do something about it and soon ticktock is the dominant app in the us today it has about 100 and 50 million users here. the washington

post's drew harwell nicely summarizes the data in 2021. its website was visited more frequently than google. two thirds of american teens use it with one in six, saying they use it almost constantly. it is also wiping the floor with the competition. however quotes of bernstein research report that found that between 2018 and 2021 , the time americans spent on the apps surged by 67. while hours on facebook and youtube grew by less than 10. what is it that tiktok does that is so distinctive. no one quite knows . phillip lawrence spring, a research scientist at the max plank institute for human development in berlin, told the guardian. it's embarrassing that we know so little about tiktok and its effects. partly this is because tiktok is relatively new and partly because it's algorithm is highly sophisticated instead of an

image or a post chosen by a friend tiktok presents you with a stream of videos and gauges. what you like to give you more of it, replacing the friction of deciding what to watch. the bernstein researchers explain with a sensory russia bite sized videos delivering endorphin hit after hit. most psychologists would characterize it as also delivering dopamine, the chemical secreted in the brain when we find something pleasurable, such as food, shelter or sex, anything that connects us to others triggers this sense of pleasure because it's an evolutionary response. we survive better in groups than as individuals. social media apps capitalize on this survival mechanism for their own profit. and tiktok provides this dopamine hit, perhaps faster, better and more pleasurably than any other app. the best way to understand how social media is affecting our brains is to go back to psychology one. oh, one.

bf skinner, one of the foundational scholars in the field demonstrated how operate conditioning works by using a simple system of continual rewards for pigeons, teaching them how to fly in circles, guided missiles and even play ping pong. the simplest version to watch is a dog trainer who will give the pet a stream of small treats. to reward him or her for following directions. social media apps provide those small dopamine hits just as reliably jonathan hyde has become famous as a critic of social media. a distinguished social psychologist. he teaches it n y you hide, argues that the rise of social media and its reward system is closely correlated with staggering declines in the mental health of teenagers around 2012, he argues , you begin to see all kinds of indications of declining mental health from self reported

feelings to hospitalizations, two attempted suicides. he says it has happened in the united states, britain in several other countries with widespread use of social media. the rising anxiety , depression and attempted suicides among teenage girls is particularly frightening. and these numbers are getting worse by the year. the timing makes sense when you consider that the early 20 tens is when teens were trading in their flip phones for smartphones loaded with social media apps. and that 2009 is when facebook introduced the like and twitter introduced the retweet feature that mimic the dark trainers treats so by 2012 . the year facebook board instagram and its user base exploded. a large number of teens were hooked. heidi is working on a book on this topic and on his sub stack after babbled. he maintains an ongoing database of scholarly studies and commentary on the studies. i

came away from it utterly convinced that he is right and that we need serious rules and laws surrounding this technology. he argues that the agent which social media companies can collect children's data without parental consent should be raised from 13 to 16. the initial discussions among lawmakers had chosen 16, he told me but then social media company lobbyists were able to push it down to 13. there could be federal laws requiring more notifications when the app has been used for too long automatic turnoffs at night and more. for those worried about this kind of legislation bear in mind that social media companies are largely protected from lawsuits by an extremely generous provision in the law section, 2 30 of the communications decency act. they can reasonably be asked in return to make their products safer for their consumers. the next technological leap is generative artificial intelligence. and

once that is fully merida social media, those companies will have a superhuman capacity to create addiction machines of astonishing power. that could hook us permanently, perhaps even rewire our brains with devastating consequences. we should act now. while we have the time and the attention span. go to cnn dot com slash fareed for link to my washington post column this week. and let's get started. yeah. this week. data showed that u. s inflation had dropped a 5% on an annual basis , continuing on nine month streak of declining inflation, but that number was still well above the 2% target, and this comes after the collapse of several regional banks to fall out of which leads fed economists who believe the economy will tip into a mild

recession later this year. where is this all headed? i sat down on friday for an exclusive interview with treasury secretary janet yellen. madam secretary. thank you for joining us. thank you for inviting me. let's talk about the american economy. sure. the federal reserve has raised rates some ways that faster pace than almost, you know, ever before, and yet the america remains at full employment. i mean, in general, the argument is the way you crush inflation is you raise interest rates make it harder for people to borrow, which then causes the economy just slow down. unemployment to rise, but unemployment really isn't rising. one of your predecessors , larry summers says. you're going to have to get unemployment up to really break the back of inflation. do you think that you're you're going to need to see substantially greater unemployment before inflation is conquered. i think

we probably need some easing of stress in the labor market to get inflation down. but that doesn't mean that we need to see unemployment rise significantly . i believe a strong labor market and bringing down inflation are compatible goals and i think we're seeing that play out right now. um first of all, inflation is too high and president biden and i feel, um this is a major primary problem that is afflicting american households and it's something that we need to deal with. the fed has the primary role here. um, we're trying to do other things that we can to be supportive, but it is a problem , but it has come down significantly. it's been declining for a number of months. and we continue to

create jobs that are remarkable pace, um, over 230,000 jobs last month. um so the labor market remains very strong, but we're still seeing with a slowdown in the economy, something we expected in his natural given that the economy is operating it full employment near its capacity. we're seeing some easing of stresses in the labor market. initial claims for unemployment insurance. you know they're not at levels, signaling distress, but they have risen somewhat. job openings have declined somewhat. which growth has, um, still solid, but his moved down somewhat so, and labor force participation has moved back up. it declined substantially when the pandemic struck, but so you think you can

achieve what people are calling this immaculate? slow down where you slow down the economy enough to cut inflation, but not so much that it throws a lot of people out of work. that's right. i mean, mostly economists have often viewed this as a trade off. i think that is what people call the soft landing is possible. so i do think there's a path to bring down inflation will maintaining what? um. i think all of us would regard as strong labor market. um and the evidence that i'm seeing. uh suggests we are on that path. now are there risks? of course i don't. i don't want to downplay the possibility that there are risks here, but i do think that's possible. there are many factors that have been pushing inflation up. that has nothing

to do with the tight labor market. russia's war in ukraine raised food and energy prices, um, the disruption from the pandemic, um caused supply bottlenecks that led to outright shortages pushed up, for example. the prices of cars dramatically new and used cars because of shortages of semiconductors. we're seeing those supply chain bottlenecks that boosted inflation. they're beginning to resolve. we had big shifts in the way people live. um and low interest rates and housing prices rose a lot now housing prices of essentially settled down rental prices of new rental units moved up a lot, but they have now settled down in her falling and that's an

element of inflation. that will continue to subside over time. what effect do you think the svb bank and they sort of banking crisis? if one calls it that has had on this program, lloyd blankfein, the former ceo of goldman sachs, said he thought it had the effect of equivalent effect of the federal reserve raising rates, meaning that banks everywhere we're now being careful being cautious, not lending a lot of money and that therefore it was also going to slow the economy down and slow inflation down. so i want to say we, um, took rapid action to, um , deal with the failure of two banks that had. rather idiosyncratic of features that caused them to fail. um wanting to make sure that americans feel safe about their deposits and,

um, what we've seen in the aftermath of those actions is that outflows from the banking system have stabilized and things have been com where, of course, monitoring things carefully, but i think the actions that we've taken have stemmed the systemic threats tested. um existed existed because of the failure of those banks. um banks are likely to become somewhat more cautious in this environment. we already saw some tightening of lending standards in the banking system . um prior to the that episode. and um, there may be some more to come and said does tend to lead to somewhat greater restriction and credit that could be a substitute, um for

further pricing further interest rate hikes that the fed needs to make, but i'm not seeing anything at this time. that is dramatic enough or significant enough. in my view to significantly change the outlook , so i think the outlook remains one for, um moderate growth and continued strong labor market with inflation coming down next on gps will be back with more of my interview with secretary yellen. we will talk about russia sanctions and the ukraine. and whether they will need to be more of both. start your day with nature made the number one pharmacist recommended vitan and supplement brands. i would like

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global growth to be slower than last year. only 2.8. one of the pressures weighing the world down, of course, is russia's war with ukraine more now of my exclusive interview with treasury secretary janet yellen, you must get design meetings. we're talking about the russia sanctions, and i wanted to ask you when you look at them. what is the piece of evidence you could point to? that conclusively demonstrates that they are actually working and that russia is being substantially deprived of revenues that putin is paying an economic price. so we've had two objectives from the outset. one is to deprive russia of revenue as you noted, and the second is to deny him access. to the equipment that he needs to provision his military adequately to conduct this brutal war. um on the revenue

side. um our price caps that we've put in place on russian oil. um have lowered the revenues that putin is receiving by roughly 40% over the last year, um, he expected to have budget surpluses. he now has a very large budget deficits in terms of equipment. we know that we've had great success in depriving him of the equipment that he needs to conduct this war. this is due to our export controls and importantly, it's not just the united states acting alone. it's that we have strong coalition partners who were working together to put in place sanctions, export controls and working jointly on enforcement. um he lost over

9000 pieces of heavy equipment on the battlefield and we see the russian the russians struggling to replace this, so we see on the battlefield. um russia is now forced to resort to iran and north korea. um to try to supply his military and we continue to take steps to, um , make sure that vision of our sanctions isn't possible. but um , we think his military is really short of the equipment that they need to wage war. let me ask you about one of the costs or one of the prices of these sanctions the way that the united states has you sanctions often in this case in the case of the iran nuclear deal is to use the power of the dollar as the as the reserve currency of the world. but that

weaponization of the dollar has produced a reaction this week, president lula in brazil said. why are we all being forced to use the dollar? emmanuel macron made reference to the dollar in that same way the european commission has stalked about after trump pulled out of the iran sanctions doctor about creating an alternative to swift to the american dominated payments system. is there a danger that we will look back at all this? you know these these measures and said this was the moment that the dollars high germany and its its status as a reserve currency began to falter. so. theories risk when we use financial sanctions that are linked to the role of dollar at the dollar that over time, it could undermine the hegemony of the dollar. as you said. but um , this is an extremely important tool. we try to use judiciously

and in circumstances. especially when we have the support of our allies. it's not just the united states. it's a coalition of partners, um, acting together to impose these sanctions, so it is a very effective tool. of course , it does create a desire on the part. um of china of russia. veron um, to find an alternative , but, uh, the dollar is used as a global currency. for reasons that are are not easy for other countries to, um find find an alternative with the same properties. um the u. s treasury market is the deepest and most liquid and safest asset. um dollars are widely used. its, um

we have very deep capital markets and rule of law that are essential in the currency that is going to be used globally for transactions, and we haven't seen any other country. um that has the, um. this basic infrastructure and institutional infrastructure. uh that would enable its currency to serve the world like this. we ask you one question about ukraine about rebuilding ukraine resupplying. it's going to take a lot of money. there are some who say this money should be taken from russia's frozen central bank reserves. would you agree with that? i think russia should pay for the damage that it is done to ukraine. so that's a responsibility that i think uh um, the global community expects russia to bear this is something

we're discussing with our partners. but, um. you know, theory, legal constraints on um what we can do with frozen russian assets. um. and we're discussing with our partners. what? might lie in the future, but i think that's the right thing for to happen that russia should pay. for the damages that it's caused. janet yellen. a pleasure to have you on the program. thank you, fareed. next on gps, the league of american classified documents. what effect will it have for us relations around the world and on the battlefield in ukraine? reinventing our network smarter, more efficient routes so you can deliver more value to your customers. fast reliable, perfectly orchestrated. united

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leaked to social media that came to light last week has revealed information that the u. s and its allies would rather have kept secret, most notably that ukraine's air defenses are weak and that kiev is in desperate need of munitions. the people also says south korea is worried that artillery shells itself to america might end up on the ukrainian battlefield. a breach of that country's policy not to supply ammunition to countries at war. they revealed that the us may press israel to provide weapons to ukraine, which would be a change in israeli policy as well. and there's undoubtedly information in the leaks that russia can use against ukraine. so what will the military fallout be? and what effect is all this happened on the united states diplomatic relations? joining me now is retired u s. army general mark hertling and david sanger. general hertling is a national security and military and list for cnn. and david is a white house and national security correspondent for the new york times and also a cnn contributor. david let me start with you and just set the

you know the big picture. what do these documents reveal? what do you what was the most striking things to you when you read it? or you know, as soon as i saw these leaks for read the first thing i was thinking was, you know, how does this compare with the famous leaks of the past? you know the pentagon papers or wikileaks or snowden revelations of just about 10 years ago, and the answer is that those were much bigger leaks. but these are much more current. they're very tactical. some of the documents are 40 days old there from the end of february through, say, early march of this year, and so some of them are very damaging because they tell the russians what it is that the united states is worried about immediately. so in the immediate tactical problems there is, as you suggested at the beginning. one document that makes it pretty clear that ukraine is running out of ammunition for

its air defenses and by a certain date in may may have none left. well that would be a big red flag out there for the russians to know that their air force which they've kept pretty well grounded. would be able to go up without fear of being shot down. but there are other bigger issues that are there. the fact that we are listening in to the military officials around and some of the political officials around president zelinsky in ukraine tells you we don't trust entirely what the ukrainians are sharing with us. the fact that we have as as you suggested, gotten in deep to the south korean national security council tells you that we want to know everything about their internal debate about whether or not they can ship ammunition to ukraine. they're one of the biggest producers of 155 millimeter

rounds that ukraine desperately needs for its i. tillery some of this is embarrassing to the us, fareed because president yoon of south korea is coming to the united states. and just two or three weeks. for a state visit. you know what he's going to have to get past the fact that the united states was listening in on his government. david let me ask you about one reaction i had, which was compared to the previous ones. wikileaks and things like that. it strikes me. there's nothing terribly embarrassing here in the sense that there's no hypocrisy. the u. s. has not caught doing something. it was saying it wasn't doing. we know that they have been trying to pressure the israelis. even the south korean issue. it's a little awkward, but it's clear the u. s. has been pressuring its allies to send arms to ukraine. so while i'm sure that at a diplomatic level is going to be very tough on the ambassadors in those areas and the you know, assistant secretaries, it doesn't seem to me there's a big negative diplomatic fallout in

place here. i think there isn't a long lasting one. ah you know, in reminded me for read a little bit of wikileaks in that regard. wikileaks came out about 13 years ago. we learned a lot about the vividness of it. we learned about the sharp elbows of diplomacy. we learned about the angst when they discovered that allies were lying to the united states. but by and large as you say, there was no great revelation. beyond an understanding of the detail, and i think the longer term issue that it reveals is that while american officials love to say the ukrainians are doing great, they're brave. they're out on the field, who could believe they could hold off the russian so long there is a deep concern. general milley has said publicly that we are headed towards stalemate here and that the united states does not see a path to victory for the ukrainians. and that raises the

big question. how does this war end? then doesn't end in a negotiation in which, despite what president zelinsky has said he may have to agree to at least exceed two, a an armistice or some kind of ceasefire. in which the russians are holding onto big chunks of his territory. you've teed it up perfectly for me, david because i'm going to put all those questions to mark hertling when we come back. t mobile. your businesess will sae over 1000 bucks. what are you going to do withh it? i could ue a new sign. with t mobile for business save more than 1000. bucks versus verizon and with our price lock guaranteed will never raise your rate plan ever. okay everyone. our ssion is mplete. balanced nutrition together, we provide nutrients to support immune, muscle bone and heart health, 25 vitamins and minerals and ensure complete with 30 g of protein. to finally lose £80 and keep it off with

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sets them back at all. freed truthfully, the things that were on the documents are pretty well known by most military on both sides. the ukrainian military knows where the russian military are on a daily basis. i get an open source report showing exactly where all the battalion tactical groups are and their estimated strength. what this has done is shown the other side . it's showing the russian something that we have been assessing from our joint staff based on the intelligence. we've been receiving i don't think there's a whole lot of big surprises there. in terms of the document you mentioned or david mentioned with the earth defense equipment, most military folks understand how much ammunition ukraine is going through. don't think this is going to change any plans from the ukrainian military. uh i've always tried to put myself in the place of what would i be doing if i were ukrainian general right now, i've got to do several things. first of all. and intelligence

preparation of the russian battlefield to find out what they're doing and where they're at and where i can attack number two, incorporating all the bevy of new equipment he's received from both the us and all of the nato nations and how to coordinate that into a combined arms operations. how do i move from the defense to the offense , which is going to be exceedingly difficult for the ukrainian military? and most importantly, how do i maintain my supply and logistics lines? wherever i attack wherever i conduct the offensive. i did disagree a little bit about the comment regarding ukrainians capability to advance. let's let's let's talk about that for a second, because it's not just these documents. we know that general milley has felt that there is going to be a limit to the ukrainian ability to recover territory, particularly once you get into the heart of the donbass where the russians have been since 2014 and of course, crimea. do you think that that's

true? i think this year we will . in my view, we will not see a war win by ukraine, but i've certainly believe the capability of the ukrainian forces with new equipment. if they get their supplies straight will have have them have the ability to regain territory in both the don boss and in the southeast, and that's more than i wouldn't put crimea in that category. i would talk about zap or asia and, uh, the other provinces in the south. southeast so the intent is to regain territory on an offensive and you think it's nothing they could hold. you could win. and you think they could hold for this year? just fine. you don't think that the you know what you're envisioning is? is the war going on all of this year, the fighting going on and into next year easily i think so, unless we see a complete failure in the russian military, uh, the

russian military isn't going to calculate new operations based on any of these leaks. the reason they're not going to fly aircraft is they can't they have been failing to exceed the front line of their own troops and getting aircraft out there? they've been bombing from long distances. some of that isn't is due to ukrainian air defense artillery. but most of it is the fact that russians air force is just not capable. so if they completely fail, there could be much more advancing by the ukrainian forces. but ukraine going on the offense is much more difficult kind of proposition than what they've had in the first year of this conflict. david final thought on you know that the circumstances of this leak as often with these other ones, lead me to wonder. why do so many people have access to so much classified material? and why is there so much classified material in the united states the number of classes of top secret documents is truly staggering. it is and

so i think one of the long term uh, consequences of this. fareed is going to be yet another rethink of our classification system. there have been complaints that too much is classified. and i think as you go through these documents, and i've been through many of them, you realize that many of them didn't need to be. i mean, some of this comes from sensitive signals intelligence. a lot of it comes from things that people were reading in the new york times, the washington post or or foreign newspapers, each and every day and they're all mixed together. um the second thing that you conclude from this is if you pull back dramatically from allowing this intelligence to flow, you run the risk of making again the error that led to 9 11. you'll recall that post 9 11, we said, why is all this intelligence siloed? why did people in the defense department at the fbi and others not know

about the saudi hijackers who were trading training in the us and that led to a big opening of the intelligence world so that more people would see the data and then you get an incident like this, and the immediate instinct is to close down again and we keep getting in this cycle. and the only way we're going to break out of it, fareed is if we begin to think hard about those things you really need to protect. and those things that you really don't because if you protect everything, you're really protecting nothing. thank you both. and mark hertling points out. most of his analysis is using open source data, which has been as far as i can tell as good as the government. so on that note, mark hertling, david sanger. thank you. next on gps. the journey through one of the world's most dangerous migration routes, has chronicled by a cnn reporter. it is totally fascinating stuff. you will not want to miss this. we have, like

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everyday hurry, they'll be gone in a flash up to 70% off guilt .com today. and now for the last look. tonight at eight, p.m. eastern and pacific cnn will launch a new show called the whole story, with anderson cooper and its first installment correspondent nick payton. walsh travels through the darien gap. it is one of the world's most dangerous migration routes used by people trying to get to the united states from south america. this part of the journey takes them from colombia into panama. the crisis there has gotten so dire that just this week those two countries joined with the us to launch a campaign cracking down on transit through this lawless jungle. in this clip. we come to understand the sheer volume of people willing to make this difficult trek nearly 90,000 people in the first three months of this year alone stories here and many, but there is only one goal. america and the dream is

just that a reverent of hope of conviction that they will be the ones to make it. over danger. disease dehydration deportation about this number every day every year, almost doubling. the darien gap is the only land corridor from south america, where entry is easier to its north, where it's not. there were no roads only 66 miles of treacherous jungle from colombia to panama and onwards north 3000 miles to the u. s border. we walked the entire route of the darien gap over five days in february to document the suffering endured by people milk for cash by cartels and wanted by any country. startling is the sheer number of children on this trick as it begins on a route. sometimes adults don't even survive. and cnn's chief international security

correspondent nick paton. walsh joins me now. nick welcome. it's a it's a fascinating documentary , and it seems to illustrate a point of a friend of mine always said that donald trump didn't understand which border the world needed to be built on. it was not mexico's northern border with the united states. it was mexico's southern border with central america because that's where all the migrants are coming from. um are the countries of central america trying to do something to stop this flow? is the us asking them to what's going on on that front. yeah i mean, there's us pressure to try and stop this flow of migrants, but it's not really in the interests of any of the countries, frankly, before mexico even before the u. s border with mexico to really get in the way of this flow of people, the numbers are just staggering. they could easily possibly at the same rate breach a million this year, and so any country that chooses along that route to say, all right, we're going to stop the migrants here,

if indeed they can is then going to be left with hundreds of thousands likely every year of migrants who just stay in there. particular country, hoping perhaps circumstances to change. you also show how this is a big business. these cartels are big and sophisticated. and you are, but you did this with the permission of a cartel embedded as it were. why did the cartel let you do it? we don't know the full answer. my guess is possibly that this is something they perhaps wanted to parade that they wanted people to see. that this journey could be done that to some degree the colombian side of it with the cartels function was quite organized and fair to say it certainly was the reporters taking people up towards the border kind of marketing strategy, nick indeed, possibly although obviously our role was to be sure we documented the suffering of people on that who are really being used by a cartel the dreams that bring them to use that cartel quote unquote service. uh just emerged

wholesome needs to make a better life for their family. the cartel seize upon that often sell them a rosy, inaccurate picture of how easy or fast this trek will be helped them on their way. initially take a lot of money off them at every opportunity they possibly can, like, four or $5. gatorade up a mountain. yeah, it takes a lot of effort to get it out there, but that's a lot of money for a lot of these migrants. and then in panama. it's onwards and off you go, fareed! thanks nick. the whole story with anderson cooper premieres tonight. april 16th at eight. p.m, eastern and pacific. make sure to catch this one. and thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week, i will see you next weweek. now is the time foror cleaner indoor ar withth an air duct cleaning from ststanley steamer. you've noticd fofor carpet cleaning, but we've been cleaning air ducts for over 20 years. we do things the right way cleaning your entire system. so if you need an air duct cleaning, call 1 800 steamer day and there he is. chazz

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