this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the

united states and around the world, i am coming to you live. today on the program the mess at the mexican border, it might get worse, much worse. this week, u.s. authorities lost the authority to expel migrants from land borders. officials are expecting an onslaught. i will talk to former homeland security secretary jay johnson about the problem and solutions. also, the clock is ticking. treasury secretary yellin says america may go into default in just 18 days. there is little doubt such an event would badly hurt the u.s. economy and sully america's standing abroad. i will get the view from london with martin wolf of the financial towns. then --

after 12 years of civil war and more than 300,000 civilians dead, syria and its infamous leader are back in the arab league. what is going on? i will ask a regional expert. but first, here is my take. the tragic mass shooting in the suburb of dallas, texas took place as i was leaving the country to visit written. i might as well have taken one of elon musk's rockets and landed on a different planet. the texas massacre means so far in 2023 more than 15,000 americans have died from gun violence. in 2021, the last year for which we have complete data, there were 48,830 gun related deaths of which 20,958 were gun homicides. in england and wales, there

were 31 gun homicides, 31. even accounting for its larger population, calculating deaths per 100,000 people, the united states in had roughly 100 times as many gun homicides as the uk. the comparison in suicides is equally as depressing. in 2021, 26,328 americans took their own lives using guns. about half the people who killed themselves in america use guns to do it. in the uk in 2019, the number was 117. and of all suicides, death by firearm is one of the rarest methods. with 4% of the worlds population, the united states has about 44% of the world's gun suicides.

great britain is a useful point of comparison. in cultural terms, it is the countries closest relative, the mother ship that created the colonies from which the united states of america spring. it has a strong tradition of individualism that predate america's. even the scotch irish tradition in parts of the south old their origins to the british isles. and yet, with regard to contemporary gun violence, britain looks like most other advanced industrial countries. america, meanwhile, might as well be on another planet. perhaps because it draws on the same history of liberties and rights as america, britain was not always exempt from gun violence and mass shootings. in fact, reddish gun laws changed substantially after 2 mass shootings in 1987, and then in 1996.

in the latter case, a man entered a primary school in scotland at 9:30 a.m. armed with 4 handguns and 743 rounds of ammunition. he entered the gym full of children and opened fire. in just a few minutes, he caused the deaths of 17 people then turned the gun on himself. after those 2 massacres, it was conservative governments that passed gun control laws significantly restricting the use of firearms. when tony blair swept into power in a landslide in 1997, his government expanded on those laws. and great britain today has a total ban on handguns and automatic and semi automatic hand weaponry. they were given a few months to

hand in their weapons in a buyback program. the laws remain in place today. and gun violence of all kinds has declined over the last 25 years across the united kingdom. a similar gun ban and buyback took place in australia after a gruesome massacre in 1996. that was also enacted by a conservative government, by the way. since then, gun homicides and suicides have declined in the country as well. one study by the nonprofit every town for gun safety says strong gun laws are much safer from gun violence. for example, the gun death rate in new york state which has some of the strongest gun control is only a fraction of the national average. overall, the states with the most permissive gun laws have almost triple the death rate of those with the most stringent. according to the nation lab, living in the northeast means you have a higher likelihood of gun related homicides or suicides than in the deep south. it is true that some states with gun laws like illinois don't reap the full benefits of

the laws because of neighboring states that are more lax. but you see also the equivalent phenomenon in reverse. states like new hampshire with weak gun laws have low gun deaths helped by the fact that neighboring states have all enacted tougher measures. texas governor greg abbott true to form hold out an old clichc in response to the latest mashing. >> people want a quick solution. the long-term solution here is to address the mental health issue. >> abbott has it almost exactly backwards. the nonsolution is to talk about mental health. does america have 100 times as many mental health problems as britain? it is 18 times the rate of gun violence as the average rich country. does that mean it has 18 times the rate of mental health disorders?

texas has almost tripled the death rate as new york state. but texas does not have three times as many mentally ill people as new york. all these statistics can have the effect of deadening our sensibilities to what is going on in america. but let me try one last set to jolt us all into awareness. every day in america more than 200 people are wounded by guns. 120 are killed by them. of those 120, 11 are children and teens. the leading cause of mortality for children in america is now death by a gun. the same number of deaths, 120, will happen tomorrow, and the day after that, and then the day after that. every day until we come to our senses and do something about it. go to cnn.com/freed for a link to my washington post column this week. let's get started. ♪

>> i want to focus first on the u.s. and mexico border where a tradition is at risk of being exacerbated. on thursday night at 11:59, u.s. officials lost the power to swiftly expel migrants from the border after it was granted in march of 2020. authorities had used the power almost 3 million times to return migrants to their home countries or to mexico. so, what happens now? joining me is former secretary of homeland security, jay johnson. it's a pleasure to have you on, sir. >> thank you. >> most people don't understand why we seem somewhat -- not powerless, but we have to do something within a certain framework. it is, these people are all coming here to claim political asylum. it seems to me it is a process meant for individuals who are facing persecution. it has broken down when you have 3 million or 4 million people

coming in. >> yes, that is true. asylum, the ability to apply for asylum is fundamental to who we are as a nation. under our law, asylum is intended to protect people who are part of a group that is being politically persecuted in their home country. that's an oversimplification. that is basically it. many of the migrants we see coming from central and south america are essentially economic migrants, however. they are fleeing poverty, drought, violence, and don't fit squarely within our asylum laws. the asylum laws and process now , frankly, do operate as a magnet for illegal immigration because of the backlog. it takes years to process an asylum claim. it is essentially a two-step process. on the front end of the process

the migrant has to establish a credible fear of returning to the home country. that bar is relatively low. on the backend of the process the qualification is much higher. in between is a several year process. many people who come here know that. and they are so desperate to leave their circumstances in central america, haiti, cuba, nicaragua and venezuela, they are willing to come here even if they only get to stay for a few years. so the process as it currently exists in its broken form does serve as a magnet. >> you said something to me off- camera will that i want to bring up. from an international law point of view it is worth pointing out that people might be seeking asylum, but they do not have the right to choose the united states as the preferred destination. they have to get to a safe country. >> correct. under general principles of international law and bilateral agreements that nations can enter into, a migrant fleeing their circumstances should apply

in the first safe country they reach. you can't come to the united states and say, i want to keep going and go to canada because i would rather be in canada. and we have encouraged the mexicans to try to do this as well. but it does require the safe country devote resources to establishing a system. >> is there a solution to this? you had to deal with this when you were homeland secretary. but the numbers were much lower. what is the solution when you have millions of people applying through this process? >> i learned for many years managing this problem. the underlying push factors always overwhelm whatever defense you can put on our southern border. families are making the basic choice to flee a building -- one of the most violent regions on earth, the violence and

corruption is immense. and now, the problem is much bigger because there are a larger number of countries, a larger list of countries contributing to the problem. it was mexico, guatemala, el salvador, add to the list, haiti, cuba, nicaragua, venezuela, and some of the countries or countries with whom we have no diplomatic relations. you can't repatriate people to a country with whom you have no relationship with. add to that the smugglers, the bigger operations. the push factors have to be addressed. we started towards that in the obama administration, the last year. congress appropriated $750 million. the biden administration wants to continue that. it's a good idea. i know president biden believes in it because we used to have the conversations when he was vice president and i was secretary. you have to address the underlying factors.

there are aspects of the system that operate as a magnet but you have to address the underlying factors or we are going to continue to bang her head against this wall to try to solve the problem. >> finally, the politics, you know, it's worth pointing out i am haunted by a line from the writer who in 2015, looking at the politics of immigration said liberals need to understand that they don't control the borders. the american people will elect fascists to do it. >> that is correct. this is an instance where two things can be true at once. most americans, i am convinced, want us to be fair and humane towards people who arrive in the country by whatever means. but americans also want border security .

put aside a lot of the racist rhetoric about the great replacement and so forth. americans believe the most powerful nation on earth should be able to control our perimeter and keep track of who is entering the country. i think that is a legitimate, worthwhile objective. and that's where most americans are. if you go to a place like laredo, texas which is 80% democratic, they want the border under control. they want to be humane to kids, people who came here as kids, give people an opportunity to be accountable on the books. they want to secure border as well. >> always a pleasure to talk to you, sir. thank you. next, we will look at another country that is struggling to control migration, the united kingdom. the nation wants to block all migrants entering the country by boat. wiwill it work? that's service thehe way we want it. >> singers: ♪ safelite rerepai, safelite replace. ♪ ♪ ("i like to move it" by reel 2 real plays) ♪ we're reinventing our network... for total coidence and complete control.

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britain is in the midst of intense debate over a bill that

has come to be known as stop the boats. it seeks to penalize unauthorized migrants for crossing the english channel by boat. this is a problem for the prime minister. last month, he finally got the votes to move the bill through the house of commons. in the house of lords, the archbishop of canterbury called the piece of legislation unacceptable. the european union and the u.n. have also been critics. to help us understand what is happening, we are joined by a reddish correspondent. thank you. >> thank you so much. >> so paint a historical picture for us. is this problem, you know, people coming on boats to britain? has it gotten much worse over the last 10 years? you know, what is the historical trajectory here? >> generally, since 2015, there has been a huge surge of migrants into europe.

many of them are syrians escaping the civil war. in britain, the problem has been in terms of the boat crossings, exacerbated by the fact that from 2018 onwards britain introduced very strict security controls at tunnel and ferry crossings which meant people started to cross the channel to get to britain. one of the problems of the system is there are few safe routes into britain. so the number of people crossing this way has increased every year. last year, it reached a record number of 46,000 people. so richie >> last year promised to make stopping the boats a priority. that's what you're seeing now. >> this has been happening. the italians have the same problem with boats. everywhere they are trying to

be tougher and more hard lined on it, britain's earlier attempts, i remember this whole thing about rwanda. can you explain that? >> so the rwanda solution was cooked up last year as a way to deter people from crossing the channel. it is problematic -- >> explain it. >> the rwanda solution is packing people off to rwanda to process claims for asylum. if they win asylum they would be settled in the country. the first is it is being installed in the courts. the second is that the governor has made it clear there is no solution anyway. they could take a few hundred people. >> rishi sunak says he wants to rethink the idea of asylum because he is arguing -- you know, u.s. cases are also similar, the numbers of people coming, it's not really asylum in the traditional sense of the word, an individual feared

persecution. it is just large numbers of people fleeing the syrian civil war or instability in north africa. what is his solution? >> his solution, he has introduced a law called the illegal migration bill. it sounds very draconian. it would prevent anyone who entered written via boats crossing the channel from claiming asylum in britain. instead, the idea is they would be detained and deported. this is a measure that would deter other people from crossing the channel. that is not a bad idea. it seems unlikely to work. it's not clear it would act as a deterrent. even if it did, it's not clear how long it would take for the deterrent to kick in. you have britain detaining possibly large numbers of migrants and where would it house them? you know, up to hotels? there

is such a big backlog. this takes such a long time to process claims. it is costing the taxpayers something like $7 million a day. >> so politically, i am assuming what rishi sunak is doing is reasonably popular at least looking around the world, you know, when you are facing what seems like a flood of migrants, you know, asylum seekers and regular migrants also mixed in, the politicians say, i'm just going to stop it. you know? i'm going to repel. >> i think it would be an exaggeration to say it is popular. it is popular for some parts of the british electorate. politicians are always thinking about headlines which are very crude, grab attention that don't convey any nuance of the situations .

so that's one problem. the polling on these sorts of things is difficult because of course most brits are going to say they don't want people to cross the english channel, some of them drowning. it is terrible for their image for the government to so clearly be unable to control its borders. but this is not the right solution. i think one of the problems is the home office has shown by its actions that large numbers of people crossing the channel are legitimately in search of sanctuary. and we know that because afghans and syrians have asylum rates of 98%. they are legitimately seeking and gaining asylum. to send those people away and lock them up seems to be a problematic approach to the problem. >> it's a pleasure. thank you. next on gps, time is running out for the united states to raise the debt ceiling. just a few weeks. what does the world make of f this spectacle? i will asksk martin wolf when w get back.

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president biden hosted house speaker kevin mccarthy of the white house this week. the two sides remain at an impasse over raising the debt ceiling. with the treasury secretary janet yellen warning the u.s. could default as soon as june 1st, how does the spectacle appear to the rest of the world ? and what would be the economic impact of a default? i am joined by martin wolf, the chief economic commentator for the times. he has a new book out called the crisis of democratic capitalism. welcome, martin. so first, what does this look like outside of america? what does it look like to you? >> it looks like a lunatic asylum to be blunt.

we have been here before. it is sort of familiar. the debt ceiling controversy has arisen many times. i have written about it quite a few times. our view is it is generally a very weird theater. and it does look crazy. the americans will sort it out. it is not worrying about. we always wonder whether this is the time it out. i'm beginning to wonder whether it is. >> just for a moment so people understand the reason, you think basically no other country in the world has this two-step process where you authorize suspending, then you have to raise the debt limit? >> yes. the standard rule issue is a government has a budget which is passed by its parliament or congress. and once that is done, it borrows enough to meet the commitments that have been legislated. it is the standard process. and the idea that you would then separately need an authorization to raise your

borrowing limit which is the same thing as the debt limit in order to fund what has already been agreed is just quite extraordinary. because it is asking for a crisis. that's not what governments and parliaments normally want. >> the reason you say you are now more worried, i'm guessing, is for the same reason i am. i've noticed donald trump has come up very strongly and said, the republican party should hold firm. it should not give in. it should not make a deal. of course, when he was in power he raised the debt limit twice. that makes it very hard for congressional republicans to compromise. >> there are two elements in my thinking. the first one was that over time, we have seen the republican party from our point of view go into directions in all sorts of ways which we never imagined.

and the element with extreme views has become stronger. so for that reason, we have been more worried. so it might be really difficult for kevin mccarthy to compromise because his people will throw him out. but then along comes donald trump who is happy to see the debt ceiling raised when he basically did a massive structural underlying loosening of the position by cutting taxes now saying, actually, we shouldn't raise the limit. i presume his idea here is that it will cause a crisis. it will be on biden's watch. people don't really understand who is responsible. he will blame it on biden. it will help him get reelected. that begins to be really worrying. he has such influence with the republican party's base and his interest in the crisis is so obvious. maybe it's going to happen.

>> if the u.s. were to default, it would be a catastrophe and cause a global meltdown. are the stakes that high? >> i think they are. the ramifications are interesting to note. obviously, there are 2 elements in this. the first is, would it actually be a default on debt? the administration has other ways of handling it. for example, it could decide not to pay the people who work for it, not to pay public employees. it could, i presume, stop paying for things necessary like healthcare or defense. they could do that rather than default. i don't know which they will choose. i'm assuming from this question they might not service the debt as soon as that happens. the u.s. treasuries will have to be downgraded for the first time. the u.s. will have voluntarily failed to meet its obligations when it raised this money in

the market. it will have to be downgraded. and it will have to be downgraded, i think, globally. it's the one asset people hold including foreign currency reservations, banks all over the world. and they will say it is no longer safe. they will want to get rid of it. therefore, the price will fall which automatically means interest rates will rise. so the monetary tightening as well -- >> does it cost the u.s. more? >> in the future, it will. it will affect the future cost. but i think the biggest issue, the concern is the blow to confidence. there are very few things that people who invest hold money around the world sort of hold trusting as a bedrock of the financial system. and u.s. treasuries are far and away the most important.

if they happen to doubt that, the likelihood is they are going to become more risk- averse generally, and that will mean less risk-taking in a world economy and certainly a weaker american economy. >> martin wolf, always a pleasure. >> a pleasure to be with you. next on gps, it was a good week for bashar al-assad. syria was readmitted to the arab league after more than a decade of being frozen out . why now? yeah, it can be very warm. ♪ you were made to remember some days forever. we were made to help you find the best way there. ♪

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i usually jump on board. golo was doable, it's realistic, and it's something we can do the rest of our lives. i brought in ensure max protein, with 30 grams of protein. those who tried me felt more energy in just two weeks. uh... here i'll take that. ensure max protein with 30 grams of protein, 1 gram of sugar and nutrients for immune health. ♪ these suits are here to make sure that anything i say is legally indisputable. like... we got more spaces than space! that's entirely incalculable.

oh, i think that's legalese for... for true! apartments.com the place to find a place. asking the right question can greatly impact your future. - are, are you qualified to do this? - what? - especially when it comes to your finances. - are you a certified financial planner™? - i'm a cfp® professional. - cfp® professionals are committed to acting in your best interest. that's why it's gotta be a cfp®. the spark that ignited syria's civil war was unrest in the southern city in march of 2011. just eight months later, the arab league kicked syria out of its organization. all told, the 12+ years of war have been devastating for the people of syria. more than half the population has been forced to flee their homes. in the first 10 years of

the war, an estimated 12,000 children were wounded or killed. just about one every eight hours, 300,000 civilians have been killed in total. so it was shocking to many to see that the arab league decided this week to reinstate syria's membership. what is behind the change of heart? what will it mean for syria in the middle east? we have the professor of international relations at the london school of economics. welcome. so explain the syrian thing. what is the fundamental force behind what is happening here? >> i think the saudi foreign minister really summarized the puzzle. he said, for many years, we tried to get rid of a sod and we failed. what is the alternative? the arab league states are trying to reengage to see whether assad will deal with the humanitarian crisis.

millions of refugees in lebanon and jordan and elsewhere, you have 6 million displaced people between 80 and 90% of the syrian people, 26 million people live below the poverty line. syria has now become a key exporter of drug trafficking to neighboring countries, jordan, saudi arabia, the united arab emirates. you have thousands of fighters all over syria, russia is in syria, united states in syria, -- >> you quoted the saudi foreign minister. i think that is important. what seems to be going on to me is a new saudi foreign policy. they are approaching syria differently. they are trying to work with iran. they are not doing the kind of thing they were doing when they were trying to overthrow the

government of qatar and lebanon. what is going on with saudi arabia? >> i think you are absolutely correct. there is a shift in foreign policy in the past two years. i think now, the normalization of relations between saudi arabia and iran are significant. it was basically brokered by china. so what you have now is the saudi's are trying to exit yemen. yemen has been costly for saudi arabia both financially and reputation. they tried to live in cold peace with iran. why? because they have come to realize they cannot really rely on the united states. they believe the united states has been retracting from the region. also, they are terrified of what comes next in the next five, 10, 20 years. they believe international system has shifted and the future, china is the future. we are seeing a much more complex, much more dynamic -- what the saudi's call diversifying policy and regional policy as well.

>> this really is a post- american middle east. >> if you ask me, i would say it's leaders in the region. they look and say china is the future. it's the chinese sanctuary. the next 20 or 30 years, it will be china is to have just to give you an example for your viewers. china is the biggest trade partner of saudi arabia. china will be the greatest trade partners of almost every single mideastern state in the next 10 or 20 years. if you follow the trail of money, the saudi's are not irrational. they are rational. but this speaks about saudi arabia, saudi arabia, turkey, iran, egypt, they are really now showing independence. they are trying to take action into their own hands. everyone is normalizing relations, turkey with saudi arabia, turkey with iran, iran and syria --

>> and israel? >> absolutely. >> in the middle of this, we have an iran that faces crippling sanctions because the u.s. by pulling out of the iran deal imposed secondary sanctions. what is happening? is a ron on the brink? how do you see what it is doing? >> iran is facing one of the most severe economic crisis is in the past 40 years, literally, not to mention the social tension, the social protest inside of iran. in a way, the iranian economy is on the verge of collapse in terms of inflation. again, you cannot understand the normalization without understanding the economic situation. china is the biggest economic trade partner as well. >> in the midst of this, you have one regional actor, israel, whose prime minister set on my program just a few

weeks ago he will not allow iran to move forward on its nuclear program. is there a danger here that israel will take some kind of action against iran? how would the arabs view that today? >> i was hoping you would ask me a different angle, that really, israel is swimming against the tide. everyone is normalizing relations while israel is using brute force to suppress things. the united states knows this. the biden administration is unwilling to do anything about it. but my take on israel and iran, israel will never take a major military action against iran without the consent or yellow line from the united states. this is historically true. iran is not iraq. at the end of the day, when we talk about israel, we have to talk about the united states. it seems to me the biden

administration policy is detached as opposed to military confrontation. >> always fascinating to talk to you, we will be back. >> thanks. as russia celebrates a victory over germany, vladimir putin is facing pressure at home over his war in ukraine. that surprising story, when we come back. >> woman: why did we choose safelite? we were loading our suv when... crack! safelite came right to us, and we could see exactly when they'd arrive with a replacement we could trust.

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and now, for the last look. russia's victory day celebration marking the defeat of germany in world war ii may not have seen restrained with columns of troops standing to attention marching under the tricolor, but it was a display. the kremlin decided to forgo the flyover of warplanes. the parade featured only one tank. 20 cities canceled their ceremonies. a national march honoring veterans was scrapped. they cited security concerns for th e

prepared events, but president putin might have been unwilling to ostentatiously celebrate a 78-year-old victory when current news from the ukrainian front is bleak. best estimates say as many as 200,000 russian troops have been killed or wounded. many troops on the front line lack proper supplies, and a ukrainian counteroffensive looms. still, in his speech, hooten appeared unbowed, casting himself as the leader of a country beset by the censure of western globalist elites. he may want to stop worrying about his own elites. from the outside, it's easy to see putin as an all-powerful strongman who runs russia by decree and has manipulated and mobilized his people behind him. but in a fascinating interview with isaac chapter of the new yorker, a senior fellow at the carnegie russia eurasia center describes a more vulnerable

putin. that is in part because russian elites have become to grow disillusioned with his leadership and fear the outcome of what they increasingly see as an unwinnable war. putin is a leade r caught between two sets of elites. on the one hand there is the progressive elite made of technocrats, regional governors and senior officials who view putin as too extreme and worry about the effect of western economic sanctions. on the other hand, there are what she calls the patriots who see putin as too soft. these voices are diffuse and plentiful. and they reach the head of the mercenary wagner group as well as heads of security services and members of putin's own party. the two groups aligned in their belief that putin is mishandling the war effort. a terrifying reality that seems to emerge from this picture is that hooten, a man who started

europe's biggest land war since 2002, a man whose policies are nothing short of extreme in the eyes of the world is far less radical than the warmongering elite in his own country. she paints a worrying portrait of governance far from the vicious regime many in the west have come to nurture in their imaginations. she tells the new yorker that unless carried out by multiple agencies, sometimes without putin's knowledge, one's own decisions appeared confused based on which faction influences him at the moment. he can be at odds with his own agencies. for example, he sees a hero even though the federal security services and technocrats view him as a threat. hooten also faces more severe economic pressures than is widely believed. the wall street journal reported that pollution data belies the kremlin's claim that

industrial regions are recovering. pollution has dropped 6.2%, more than during the peak of the pandemic. russian officials statistics claim that annual industrial production actually rose by 1.2% in march. and the professor at the yale school of management has pointed out that russia's energy revenue is down as a result of the g7 price cap on russian oil. meanwhile, the budget deficit has soared. there is one silver lining for putin. whatever russian elites might think of him, he is still overwhelmingly popular with the public. he has an enviable 83% approval rating according to the independent lovato center. moreover, the public does support his ill considered war. but according to the report, it keeps elites who may privately oppose the war from speaking out.

the danger is not that the putin regime might collapse from within, she says, but even under him it could transform into something monstrous, ruthless, inhumane, a reign of fear. as bad as the putin regime looks now in russia, it could actually get worse. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. >> want a daily dose of fareed and his team? you can get it with fareed's local briefing. it gives you the best insight and analysisis on global affair go to cnn.cocom/ fareed to sig up. switch to a kiking suite- or book a silent retreat. silent retreat? hold up - yeeerp? i can't talk right now, i'm at a silent retreat. cashback on everything you buy with chase freedom unlimited with no annual fee. how do you cashback? chase. make more of what's yours.

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