this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live. ♪ ♪ >> today on the program, the mess at the mexican border. it may get worse, much worse. this week, u.s. authorities lost the ability to swiftly expel migrants from land borders. officials are expecting an onslaught. i will talk to former homeland security secretary jeh johnson about the problem and solutions. ♪ >> also, the clock is ticking. treasury secretary yellen says america may go into default in just 18 days. there's little doubt such an event would badly hurt the u.s. economy and suddenly america is standing abroad. i'll get the view from london with martin wolf of "the financial times" then -- after

12 years of civil war and more than 300,000 civilians dead, syria and its infamous leader bashar al assad are back in the arab league. what is going on? i will ask regional expert farwaz gerbez, but first, here's my take. the tragic mass shooting in the suburb of dallas, texas, took place as i was leaving the country to visit britain. i might as well have taken one of elon musk's rockets and landed on a different planet. the texas massacre means that so far in 2023 more than 15,000 americans have died from gun violence. in 2021 the last year for which we had complete data there were 48,830 gun-related deaths of

which 20,958 were gun homicides. in england and wales there were 31 gun homicides. 31. even accounting for its larger population, calculating deaths for 100,000 people, the united states in 2019 had roughly 100 times as many gun homicides as the uk. a comparison of suicides is equally depressing. in 2021, 26,328 americans took their own lives using guns. about half of the people who killed themselves in america used guns to do it. in the uk in 2019, that number was 117, and of all suicides death by firearm is one of the rarest methods, with 4% of the world's population, the united states has about 44% of the

world's gun suicides. great britain is actually a useful point of comparison in cultural terms it is this country's closest relative the mother ship that created the colonies from which the united states of america sprang. it has strong traditions of individualism, rights and liberty that pre-figure americas. even one of the more violent strains of american culture, the scotch-irish tradition in parts of the south, owe their origins to the british isles and yet, with regard to contemporary gun violence, britain looks like most other advanced industrial countries. america, meanwhile, might as well be on another planet. perhaps because it draws on the same history of liberties and rights as america, britain was not always exempt from the gun violence and mass shootings and british gun laws changed substantially after two mass shootings. in 1987 in hungerford and then

in 1996 in dunblaine. in the latter case a man entered a primary school in scotland at 9:30 a.m. armed with four handguns and 743 rounds of ammunition. he entered the gym full of children and opened fire. in just a few minutes he caused the deaths of 17 people asknd tn turned the gun on himself. after the two massacres it was conservative governments that passed gun control laws significantly restricting the use of firearms. when tony blair swept into power in a landslide in 1997 his labor government expanded on those laws and great britain today has almost total bans on handguns and automatic and semi-automatic weaponry. brittons were give know a few months to hand over their weapons in a government buyback program. these laws remain in place today and gun violence of all kinds

has declined markedly over the last 25 years across the united kingdom. a similar gun ban and buyback took place in australia after a gruesome massacre in 1996. that was also enacted by a conservative government, by the way. since then gun homicides and suicides have declined in that country, as well. one study by the non-profit every town for gun safety suggests that states that have strong gun control laws in america are much safer from gun violence. for example, new york state is only a fraction of the national average. overall the states with the most per mis permissive gun laws have almost triple the gun rate of the most stringent in the northeast. living in the northeast you haveio much lower rate of homicides or gun suicides than in the deep south. illinois don't reap the full

benefits of these laws because of neighboring states that are more lax, but you see also the equivalent phenomenon in reverse. states like new hampshire with weak gun laws have low gun deaths helped by the fact that their neighboring states have all enacted tougher measures. texas governor greg abbot, true to form pulled out an old cliche in response to the latest mass shooting. >> people want a quick solution. the long-term solution here is to address the mental health issue. >> abbott has it almost exactly backwards. the quick non-solution is always to talk about mental health. does america have 100 times as many mental health problems at britain? it has 18 times the rate of gun violence as the average rich country. does that mean it has 18 times of rate of mental disorders? texas has almost tripled the rate of gun deaths as new york state, yet texas doesn't have three times as many mentally ill

people as new york. all thee statistics have the effect of deadening our sensibilities to what is going on in america and let me try one set to try to jolt us all into awareness. every day in america, more than 200 people are wounded by guns. 120 are killed by them. of those 120, 11 are children and teens. the leading cause of mortality for children in america is now death by a gun. the same number of deaths, 120 will happen tomorrow and the day after that and then the day after that. every day until we come to our senses and do something about it. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington post column this week and let's get started. ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ i want to focus first on the u.s.-mexico border where an already kay on the being situation is at risk of being exacerbated. on thursday night at 11:59 u.s. officials lost the power to swiftly expel migrants from the border after it was granted in march of 2020. authorities had used the power almost three million times to return migrants to their home countries or to mexico. so what happens now? joining me is former secretary of homeland security jeh johnson. pleasure to have you on, sir. >> thank you. >> tell me, most people i don't think understand why we seem somewhat not powerless, but we have to do something within a certain framework which is these people are coming here and claiming political asylum, but it seems to me an asylum process that was meant for individuals and who were facing persecution has broken down when you have 3,

4 million people coming in. >> yes, that is true. asylum, the ability to apply for asylum is fundamental to who we are as a nation. under our law, asylum is intended to protect people who are part of a group that is being politically persecuted in their home country. that's an oversimplification, that's basically it. many of the migrants we see coming from central and south america are essentially economic migrants, however. they're fleeing poverty, drought, violence and don't fit squarely within our asylum laws. the asylum laws and process now, frankly, do operate as a magnet for illegal immigration because of the backlog. it takes years to process an asylum claim and it's, sshlly a two-step process on the front end of that process the migrant

has to establish a credible fear of returning to their home country. that bar is relatively low. on the back end of the process, the ultimate qualification for asylum, the bar is much higher, but in between is a several-year process. many people who come here know that and they're so desperate to leave their circumstances in central america and haiti and cuba and nicaragua and venezuela that they're willing to come here even if they only get to stay for a few years. so the process, as it currently exists in its broken form does serve as a magnet. >> and you said something to me off-camera which i just want to bring up which is from an international law point of view, it's worth pointing out these people may be seeking asylum, but they do not have the right to choose the united states as their preferred destination. they just have to get to a safe country. >> correct. under general principles of international law and under bilateral agreements that nations can enter into, a

migrant fleeing their circumstances should apply in the first safe country they reach. you can't come to the united states and say, no, i want to keep going and go to canada because i would rather be in canada, and we have encouraged the mexicans to try to do this, as well, but it does require the safe country to devote resources to establishing a system. >> is there a solution to this? you had to deal with this when you were homeland secretary, but the numbers were much lower. what is the solution when you have millions of people applying through this process? >> fareed, i learned three years managing this problem that the underlying push factors always overwhelm whatever defense you can put on our southern border. families are making the basic choice to flee a burning building and the most violent -- or one of the most violent

regions on earth, the poverty and the corruption is immense and now the problem is much bigger because there are a larger number of countries, a larger list of countries contributing to the problem. when i was there, it was mexico, guatemala, honduras, el salvador and add to the list, haiti, nicaragua, cuba and venezuela and you can't repatriate people to a country with whom you have no relationship with. add to that the smugglers, their bigger operations, so the push factors have to be addressed. we started to address that in the biden years -- i'm sorry, in the obama administration in the last year. congress appropriated $750 million. the biden administration wants to continue that. it's a good idea. i know president biden believes in it because we used to have these conversations when he was vice president, and i was secretary. you have to address the

underlying factors. they were aspects of our system that operate as a magnet, but you have to address the underlying factors, otherwise we will continue to bang our heads against the wall to solve this problem. >> the politics of it probably wasn't central, but it's worth pointing out, i am haunted by a line from the writer who in 2015, looking at the politics of immigration said liberals need to understand if they don't control the borders, the american people will elect fascists who do. >> that is correct. this is an instance where two things can be true at once. most americans, i am convinced, want us to be fair, humane toward people who arrive in this country by whatever means, but americans also want border security, put aside a lot of the racist rhetoric about the great replacement and so forth. americans believe that the most

powerful nation on earth should be able to control our perimeter and keep track of who is entering our country. i think that is a legitimate worth while government objective and that's where most americans are. if you go to a place like laredo, texas, which is 80% democratic. they want us to be fair, humane and to kids who came here -- to the people who came here as kids and gave people an opportunity to be accountable, on the books, but they want to secure a border, as well. >> always a pleasure to talk to you, sir. >> thanks, fareed. >> next, we will look at another country that is struggling to control migration, the united kingdom. the nation wants to block all migrants trying to enter the country by boat. will it work? because it's powered by the most potent source of energy there is ... you. this is the lexus variety of electrification ...

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can we even afford this house? maybe jacob can finally get a job. the house whisperer! this house says use realtor.com to see homes in your budget. you're staying in school, jacob! realtor.com. to each their home. britain is in the midst of intense debate over a bill that has come to be known as stop the

votes. it seeks to penalize unauthorized migrants for crossing the english channel by boat. the approximpolicy is a priorit rishi sunak and he got the bill to move through the house of commons. the archbishop of kant you are bury called the piece of legislation morally unacceptable. the european union and the u.n. have also been critics. to help us understand what's happening, we are joined by mian rich, correspondent. welcome. >> thank you so much. paint the historical picture for us. is this a problem of people coming on boats to britain, has it gotten much worse over the last ten years, you know, what's the sort of historical trajectory here? >> in europe, generally since 2015 it's been a huge surge of migrants into europe. many of them syrians escaping the dreadful civil war there.

in britain, the problem has been in terms of the boat crossings, exacerbated by the fact that from about 2018 onward, britain introduced very strict security controls at tunnel and ferry crossings which meant that people started to cross the channel to get to britain. in fact, one of the problems is that there were very few, safe routes into britain, and so the number of people crossing this way has increased every year. last year it reached a huge record number of 46,000 people and so that's rishi sunak last year promised to make, you know, stopping the boats one of his pledges for 2023 and that's what we see happening now. >> as you said, this began roughly around 2015. it has been happening all over europe and everywhere european governments are struggling with this and the italian government has the same problem with boats

and everywhere they're trying to be tougher, more hard line on it and what about britain's earlier attempts and what about rwanda. can you explain that? so the rwanda solution was cooked up last year as a way to try to deter people from crossing the channel. it's problematic on humanitarian grounds. >> what is it? explain it. >> the rwanda solution is basically packing people off to rwanda to have their claims for asylum processed there and if they win asylum then they would be settled in the country. they've got two major problems. the first that it is being stalled in the courts. the second is that the govern the of kigally has made quite clear that they can only take a few hundred people. >> rishi sunak says, and the u.s. case is similar, that the numbers of people coming is not really asylum in the traditional sense of the word, an individual who feared persecution.

it's just large numbers of people fleeing the syrian civil war or stability in south africa. what is the solution? >> so his solution, he has introduced a law called the illegal migration bill and it would basically, it sounds very draconian because it is, it would prevent anyone who entered britain via boats crossing the channel from claiming asylum in britain. instead, the idea is they would be detained and deported. this is intended as a measure that would det yoer other peopl from crossing the channel and it seems very unlikely to works and not clear that if it would act as a deterrent and it's not clear what it would take for the deterrent to kick in and they are detaining large numbers of migrants and where would it house them, and hotels, up and down the length of britain are full of asylum seekers at the moment because there's such a

big backlog and it takes such a long time to process their claims and it is costing the taxpayers and something like 7 million a day. >> so, politically, i'm assuming what rishi sunak is doing is reasonably popular, and at least looking at around the world, when you're facing this kind of what seems like a flood of migrants or asylum seekers and regular migrants also are mixed in. politicians are saying i'm just going to stop it. i'm going to repel. it tends to be popular. >> i think it would be an exaggeration to say it's popular and the problem with immigration policies and you're always thinking about headlines had are very crowd, grab attention or have the nuanced of these situations. so that's one problem. the polling on these things is very difficult because, of course, most brits will say they

won't want people to cross the channel. some of them drowning is it's people's image to soak clearly and be unable to secure the borders, but this is the reit drugz solution. the home office has shown by its ak actions that large numbers of people crossing the channel are legitimately in search of century and we know that because afghans and syrians have grant rates above 80% and they're gaining asylum. to send those people away or to lock them up seems to be a problematic approach to the problem. >> a pleasure, it was a fascinating primer on what's going on. >> thank you. >> thank you. next on "gps" time is running out on the united states to raise the debt ceiling in just a few weeks. what does the world make of the spectacle. i'll ask martin wolf when we come back.

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>> president biden hosted house speaker kevin mccarthy at the white house this week, but the two sides remain at an impasse over raising the debt ceiling. without a deal, treasury secretary janet yellen has warned the u.s. could default as soon as june 1st. how does the spectacle appear to the rest of the world and what would be the economic impact of a default? i am johned by martin wolf, the chief economics commentator for "the financial times." he has a new book out called the crisis of democratic capitalism. welcome, martin. so first, what does this look like outside america? what does it look like to you? >> well, it looks like a lunatic asylum, to be blunt, but we've been here before. so it's sort of familiar and the debt ceiling controversy is the reason many times i've written about it quite a few times, and

our view generally is it's a very weird theater and does look crazy, but the americans will sort it out and it's not worth worrying about. we always wonder whether this is the time when they won't sort it out and i'm beginning to wonder where it is. >> just so people understand the reason they think it's insane is that basically no other country in the world has this two-step process where you first authorize the spending and then you have to raise the debt limit. >> yes. the standard rule is the government has a budget which is passed by its parliament and congress and once that's done, it borrows enough to meet the commitments that have been legislated. that is the standard process and the idea that you would then separately need an authorization to raise your borrowing limit

which is the same thing as the debt limit in order to fund what has already been agreed is just quite extraordinary. because it's asking for a crisis, and that's not what governments and parliaments normally want. >> the reason you say you are now more worried, i'm guessing is for the same reason that i am which is they noticed this donald trump has come out strongly and said the republican party should hold for them. it should not give in and it should not make a deal, of course, when he was in power it raised the debt limit twice. that makes it very hard for congressional republicans to compromise. >> there were two elements in my thinking. the first one was that over time we have seen the republican party from our point of view, i think most people's point of view, go in directions that in all sorts of ways which we never imagined so -- and the element

with extreme views has become stronger. so for that reason we are more worried so it might be really difficult for kevin mccarthy to compromise because his people will throw him out. that's that sort of kr and conc and long comes donald trump when he sees the debt ceiling raised which me does a massive, structural underlying loosening of the fiscal positioning by cutting taxes and now saying, actually we shouldn't raise the limit. i presume his idea here is that it will cause a crisis, and it will be on biden's watch. people don't really understand who is responsible and they will blame it on biden and it will help them get reelected and that begins to be really worrying because he has such influence with the republican party's place and his interest in the crisis is so obvious that maybe it's actually going to happen? >> janet yellen says if the u.s. were to default it would be a

catastrophe and it would cause a global economic slowdown and are the stages that high? >> well, i think they are. the ramifications are difficult to note. obviously there are two elements in this, and the first is would it actually be a default on debt and the administration has other ways of handling it and it could, as i understand it, for example, decide not to pay the people who work for it, and not po thai public employees and it could, i presume, stop paying for things that are legislated like social security and health care and defense, they could do that rather than default and i don't know which they'll choose, but i'm assuming that from this question they might not to service the debt and as soon as that happens, u.s. treasurys will have to be downgraded for the first time the u.s. will have voluntarily failed to meet its obligations when it raised this money in the markets.

you would have to be downgraded and you would have to be downgraded, i think, globally, is the one asset people hold including currency reserves and countries and banks all over the world. sovereign wealth funds and they will say it's no longer safe and they will want to get rid of it and therefore its price will fall which automatically means interest rates will rise and the monetary tightening, it would cost the u.s. more to borrow money in the future. >> yes, it will, surely affect the future cost, but i think the biggest issue is, the concern is the blow to confidence. there are very few things that people who invest, hold money around the world sort of trust in as a bedrock of the financial system, and u.s. treasurys are far and away the most important. so they have to doubt that, but

the likelihood is they'll become more risk averse generally and that will mean less risk taking and a weaker world economy and certainly a weaker american economy. >> martin wolf, always a pleasure. >> pleasure to be with you. >> next on g peps, it was a goo week for bashar al assad. syria was re-admitted to the arab league after more than a decade of being frozen out. why now? how to grow more vibrant flowers: step one: feed them with miracle-gro shake 'n feed.

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asking the right question can greatly impact your future. - are, are you qualified to do this? - what? - especially when it comes to your finances. - are you a certified financial planner™? - i'm a cfp® professional. - cfp® professionals are committed to acting in your best interest. that's why it's gotta be a cfp®. the spark that ignited syria's civil war was in the city of dharra march of 20 len. six months later the arab league kicked syria out of its organization. all told, the 12+ years of war have been devastating for the people of syria. more than half the population has been forced to flee their homes. if the first ten years of the war an estimated 12,000 children were wounded or killed, just

about one every eight hours. more than 300,000 civilians have been killed in total. so it was shocking to many to see that the arab league decided this week to reinstate syria's membership. what is behind this change of heart? what will it mean for syria and the middle east? joining me now is the great middle east expert far waz gergez. farwaz, welcome. explain the syrian thing. what is the fundamental force behind what is happening here? >> i think the saudi foreign minister really summarized the puzzle. he said for many years we tried to get rid of assad and we failed. what is the alternative? the alternative now, the arab league and the arab states are trying to re-engage assad to see what assad will be willing to deal with the catastrophic humanitarian crisis for you viewers, 6 million refugees in

turkey, lebanon, jordan and elsewhere. we have 6 million displaced people in syria. between 80% and 90% of the syrian people, 26 million people live below the poverty line. syria has become now a key exporter of drug trafficking to neighboring countries, for jordan, saudi arabia and to the united arab emirates. you have tens of thousands of foreign fighters in syria, the russia is in syria, and the united states in syria. you quoted the saudi foreign minister and that's significant because what seems to be going on is the new saudi foreign approximately see and they're approaching syria differently and they're trying to have a -- with iran and they're not doing the kind of thing that they were doing when they were trying to overthrow throw the government of qatar and trying to overthrow the government of lebanon. what's going on with saudi arabia? >> you're absolutely correct.

there is a shift of foreign policy in the past two years. i think the normalization revelations between sawed rabe wra a ia and iran is significant and what you have now is the saudis are trying to exit yemen. yemen has been really very costly for saudi arabia, both financially and reputation. they're trying to re-live in peace with iraq. why? because they have come to realize they cannot really rely on the united states, that they believe that the united states is retrenching and has been retrenching from the region and also they're terrified of what comes next in the next five or ten or 20 years. they believe that the international system has shifted and then the future, china is the future. so we're really seeing a much more complex, much more dynamic and what the saudis call -- to diversify the foreign policy and regional policies, as well. >> so this really is a kind of

post-american middle east? >> i think if you ask me, i would say it's really -- it's what leaders in the region and they look at the world and say china is the future and it's the chinese sanction, and the next 10, 20, 30 years it will be china's to have, just to give you an example for your viewers. ch china is the biggest trade partner. china will be the greatest trade partners of almost every single middle eastern state in the next ten or 20 years. so if you follow the trail of money and the saudis are not irrational and they're very rational and the big trend is not just about saudi arabia. the key regional powers, saudi arabia, turkey and egypt are showing independence and they're trying to take action into their own hands. everyone is normalizing relations and everyone, turkey with saudi arabia, and turkey with iran and the united -- and iran and syria. >> and with israel, even. >> absolutely.

>> in the middle of this, we still have an iran that faces very crippling economic sanctions because the u.s. by pulling out of the iran deal imposed those secondary sanctions. what is happening? is iran on the brink? how do you see what it's doing? >> no, fareed. iran is facing one of the most severe economic crisis in the past 40 years, literally. not to mention the social tension, the social protests inside iran. so in a way the iranian economy is on the verge of collapse in terms of inflation and the currency and you cannot understand the normalization between saudi arabia and iran without understanding the economic situation. china is the biggest economic trade partner of iran, as well. >> in the midst of this you still have one regional actor, israel whose prime minister bibi netanyahu said on my prime minister just a few weeks ago he would not allow iran to move

forward with its nuclear program. is there a danger here that israel takes some kind of action against iran. how would the arabs view that today. >> i was hoping that you would ask me a different angle that really, israel is running against the tide. everyone is normalizing relations and everyone, while israel is using brute force to suppress the palestinians and the united states knows this and the united states, and the biden administration is unwilling to do anything about it, and my take on israel and iran and israel will never take a major military action against iran without the consent or a yellow line from the united states and this is historically true. iran is not iraq. so my take on it at the end of the day, when we talk about israel later on and we have to talk about the united states, israel and iran and the biden administration toward iran is detasked as opposed to military confrontation. >> always fascinating.

dr. fawaz, we will be back. >> president vladimir putin is facing pressure at home over his war in ukraine. that surprising story when we come back. no. ♪ -no. -nuh-uh. ♪ yeah. oh. yes. ♪ oh yeah. yes. isn't this great? yeeaahhhh!! ♪ yeah, i could do a cartwheel in here. oh hey! would you like to join us? no. we would love to join you.

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now for the last look. russia's victory day celebration this week marking the soviet union's defeat of nazi germany may not have seemedrestrained, but it was a muted display. the kremlin decided to forego the fly over of war planes. more than 20 cities canceled their ceremonies and the national march with veterans was scrapped. president vladimir putin might have been unwilling to celebrate

a 78-year-old victory when current news from the ukrainian front is weak. as many as 200,000 russian troops have been killed or wounded. many troops lack supplies and a ukrainian counteroffensive looms. still, putin appeared bunbowed y these pressures. he may want to start worrying about his own elites. from the outside it's easy to see putin as an all-powerful man who rules russia and who has manipulated his people. in a fascinating interview, tatiana, a senior fellow at the carnegie russia center describe as more vulnerable putin. that is because russian elites

have begun to grow disillusioned with his leadership. on the one hand there's the progressive elites who putin as too extreme and worry about the effect of western economic sanctions. on the other hand there are the patriots who see putin as too soft. these voices are plentiful and include men like the head of the mercenary group as well as the heads of security services and members of putin's own party. these two groups align in their belief that putin is mishandling the war effort. a terrifying reality that seems to emerge from this picture is that putin, a man who started europe's biggest land war since

world war ii, a man whose policies are extreme is far less radical than the war mongering elite in his country. she paints an alliance in the regime and tells the new yorker that arrests are carried out, sometimes without putin's knowledge. putin's decisions appear confused and putin's view can be add odds with his own agencies. for example, putin sees him as a hero, even as the federal security services view him as a threat. putin faces more severe economic pressures than is widely believed. the wal "the wall street journal" reported information that belies the fact that russia's economy

is recovering. russian official statistics claim that annual production rose by 1.2% in march. a professor at the yale school of management pointed out that russia's energy revenue is down as a result of the g7 price cap on russian oil and its budget deficit has soared. there's one silver lining for putin. whatever russian elites think of him he's still overwhelmingly popular with the public. he has an 83% approval rating. more over the public supports his ill-considered war. according to this journalist, it keeps elites who privately are against the war from speaking out. the danger is that, even under

putin, it could transform into something monstrous, a reign of fear. as bad as the putin regime looks, it could be worse. thanks to all of you for being part of the program. i'll see you next week. welcome to the next level. this is the lexus nx with intuitive tech safety radar detector: watch for traffic. and our most advanced safety system ever. ♪ (vo) if you've had thyroid eye disease for years and the bags under your eyes are looking more like purses, it's not too late for another treatment option. to learn more visit treatted.com. that's treatt-e-d.com.

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