this is "gps", the global public scare. welcome to you around the united states and around the world, i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. todayond the program, president

biden just finished a important round of meetings with world leaders in japan as the debt ceiling dromma continues back home in washington. we'll talk about all of that and plus ukraine's counter offensive and more much with a smart panel just back from kyiv. also, pakistan is on edge after its former prime minister khan was arrested and released last week. now he fears for his life and he will join me for his side of the story. but first here is my take. many of us had high hopes for turkey's recent general election, believing that a flat out victory for the opposition could make a break with the worldwide trend tordil liberal democracy. but perhaps we were misguided, with free elections and trusting in the will of the people. in fact, what happened in turkey last week highlights the latest

and most disturbing trend in the rise of ill liberal democracy. the results last weekend were a victory all the same. he did better than the polls predicted and came out well ahead of his main opponent leaving him high lie likely to win in the runoff scheduled for may 28th. this is stunning given that turkey is a country in economic catastrophe with sky high inflation. the vote also took place just months after an earthquake in which the government performed miserably. consider, though, the back drop to those elections. erdogan was um against kemal, a colorful bureaucrat without much charisma or eloquence, but the president has already eliminated from the field the most powerful potential candidate against him, the charismatic politician from

the same party as derilou. he won the election for istanbul mayor, a pivotal position that was erdogan's own path to power. but erdogan's claims fraud and the electorate council ordered a fresh round of voting and then he won the second election by a larger margin so he was charged with insulting public officials over the incident and was tried by a judiciary backed with ruling party loyalists. sure enough, last december a court barred moleu and sentenced him to prison for almost three years. the decision is under appeal but in the meantime he was prevented from running for the presidency. turkey's political playing field is massively tilted in favor of erdogan. the state lavishes funds on his

supporters an the country's media is slavishly pro-government. most of turkey's major media properties have been bought by business people that are supporters of erdogan. the largest business group that maintains its distance from the president found itself mfacing charges of tax fraud and sold its media holdings toar moy complaint owner. state television, the country's main source of broadcast news relentlessly extols the virtues of erdogan atrumpets the achievements of the government. they spend only 32 minutes on his opponent. of all democracies, turkey imprisons the most journalists. the turkish government initiated more than 30,000 cases for the offense of insulting the president. that is just in the year 2020. erdogan's government has

systematically taken over independence institutions including courts and the body controlling elections. if the may 28 election is close and the opposition candidate comes out ahead, you could be sure that erdogan will appeal and that the election authorities will likely rule for him just as they did in the case of the istanbul mayoral vote. ngo's fate government investigation and scrutiny, limiting their ability to operate. the government has passed laws giving it tight control over social media and ahead of the election, reportedly asked twitter to block the accounts of about a dozen opposition figures. after february's earthquake, when the government confronted intense criticism on social media for the mishandling of the natural disaster, it simply blocked twitter for a while. this is the next innovation in ill liberal democracy. elected presidents and prime ministers use their majorities to pass laws that give them sustained and structural

advantages over their opponents. they use government funds to shower their supporters with benefits. the government files tax and regulatory cases against independent media groups, investigated journalists and ngo's and reshapes independent agencies and courts into complaint arms of the ruling party. and then they hold free elections. erdogan's tactics will seem similar to many democracies around the world. today it has fallen to 161 in the world press freedom index put out by reporters without borders. look at hungry where the government and pro-government businesses control almost all of the country's media and the body overseeing the judiciary became an arm of the ruling party drawing the ire of the european union. the office's first head was the god parent to prime minister

victor orban's oldest child. look at mexico where the president has tried to gut the election authority. when elections are held in these circumstances, and international observers duly note that the ballots were properly cast and counted and then certify such elections to be genuinely competitive, they're doing us all a disservice. we need a new vocabulary to describe this phenomenon. are some elections free. technically, they are free but also profoundly unfair. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington post column this week. and let's get started. ♪ earlier today, hiroshima, japan, volodymyr zelenskyy said that while it wasn't a fair

comparison, images of the nuclear devastation hiroshima reminded him of what is happening in bakhmut, the most hard fought city in his own country. yesterday the leader of the wagner group, a mercenary force for russia, announced that his fighters had taken back khmut. it is a claim that zelenskyy denied. he was taking part in the g7 world leaders there. joining me to discuss ukraine and the g7 are kori schake and the director of foreign and defense policy studies at the american enterprise institute and gideon rose, a distinguished council on the power of foreign relations an the former editor of foreign affairs. you are both back from a trip to kyiv, literally just back. corrie, what were your impressions? you got to meet a lot of people there. >> the grim commitment ukrainian have against succeeding against

the russia invasion, they own it now in a way that even six months ago they felt like they were persuading them sfz they would with stand it. now they know they can. >> and gideon, when you hear people say that ukrainians need to understand, they have to compromise, they're not going to be able to reclaim all of their territory. we need to start some process of negotiation. what is your sense of how they view those arguments? >> every single person we talked to from generals to soldiers to cabinet ministers to local officials to civil society figures and ordinary citizens was united. they see this as a fight for their lives. they say we're defending our homes and our children and our future and we're going to reclaim all of our territory. they didn't say with you or without you. but they suggested that the fight will continue until ukraine is free. the only question is how long it will take and how much we have to suffer to get there. >> and why -- so do they think

that they'll be able to get everything, not just a 2022 lines, but the 2014 lines? >> yes. what was the most interesting thing was as cory said, in the fall you were there and you saw them almost trying to convince themselves not false bravado, but bolstering their own confidence. now the grim determination is met with a quiet confidence. they've taken everything that the russians have thrown at them and now they're ready to punch back. and one general said, i asked where are we in the war. he said we're toward the end of the first half and they're going into the locker room knowing they could beat the russians and the only question is what time scale and how long it will take and how much damage will be caused along the way. >> what is their sense of what is going on, on the russian side. >> as gideon said, the russian

conduct means that no ukrainian government to possibly leave their people or territory under russian control. i heard several senior people in the ukrainian government suggest that perhaps a leadership transition is already going on in russia. and it is not that vladimir putin is permitting the lesser figurers to bicker and fight and people are being falling out of windows and generals being cashiered. it is that he no longer has the ability to control it. >> that is fascinating. so when you see the head of the waugner forces dissenting from the defense minister, this is something that putin has lost control over? >> yeah. and we shouldn't avert our eyes from the fact that the next russian government may actually be worse than the current russian government. >> wow! gideon you have written a lot about how wars end. do you think that the ukrainian view of this is -- is plausible,

that they could actually win? >> after this trip, i do. wars end when either you have a durable stalemate that can't be moved or both sides come to understand that the trend is irreversibly in one direction. that is when the end game starts. we're not there yet. each side is still trying to fight it out and each side thinks if the other gives us an if the west pulls back support then maybe the tide will turn. so what is crucial now is to continue to pledge support for ukraine so that the russians realize that we're not going to back out and with that, the iranians -- the ukrainians need the tools to win but they know that they can beat the russians on the ground. the question is when will the gap between the objective russian situation and russia's real perception of it change and i think that will happen this year. i don't think the war will end this year. but i think as this year progresses, the gap between russia's really bad situation

and its public recognition of it will tart to change. >> what was your sense of how much the ukrainians worried that the west will -- the concern support will falter, will dry up, any of that? >> i think they are worried. and justifiably worried. because the countries of the west are giving an enormous amount of assistance. especially the united states. but that is why president zelenskyy's trips to the arab league summit and g7 and the trip around the european capitals mattered so much for showing the support for ukrainian and showing russia's international isolation and it matters for gaining commitments of additional assistance to ukraine in particular the commitment of fighter aircraft whose readers and missiles can range -- can attack russian forces from outside the response envelope. >> so i've got to ask you, because you are a republican.

do you worry that between donald trump and some of the things governor desantis has said, some of the things that josh hawley and people like that have said, that there is substantial republican opposition to supporting ukraine with the kind of fullness that the biden administration has done? >> yeah. i think there is opposition. but it really matters that the leadership, including speaker mccarthy, are committed to continued assistance to ukraine. >> so you think that if donald trump goes on the came trail, becomes the nominee and said, as what he keeps saying, i'm going to stop the fighting, you think republicans in congress will still vote for ukraine aid? >> i do. i do. because the united states is in a shrewd strategic actor. a lot of times we're more of a sentimental actor and the war in ukraine is such a battle good

against evil. and that ukrainians are willing to restrict their military operations in their own territory and not extend it into the sanctuary of russian territory really underscores who the good guys and the bad guys are and i think americans understand that and this is why republicans will continue to support aid to ukraine. and in addition, even in shrewdly strategic terms, for 5% of u.s. defense spending last year and zero american military casualties, the ukrainians are destroying the russian army and that is in in america's interests. >> stay with us. next up president biden was supposed to be headed to papua, new guinea, after the g7, now he's back on his way to washington thanks to american political dysfunction. i'll discuss that with the panel and broader foreign policy in a moment.

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president biden was planning on making the most of the fact that he was half way around the world for the g7 and visit other nations in the western pacific. instead, air force one took off two hours ago to take him back to washington to deal with the debt ceiling crisis. joining me again are kori schake of the american enterprise institute and gideon rose. kori, what do you think of the debt ceiling crisis and do you think it gets soft. >> i'm concerned about fellow republicans about the level of government spending. but threatening to default on the nation's debt is bad governance. the right way to rein in spending is through the practice of passing authorization and appropriation bills, not threatening to default. >> kevin mccarthy's worry is he will not keep his job if he

compromised. >> that is certainly a possibility. >> what did anyone talk about this in ukraine, gideon? >> no, they were concerned about their own future and less concerned about ours. i wish there was the same solidarity here that we saw in ukraine across the different parties, across politicians who might run against each other. they were still on board for the current effort and one hopes that could be a lesson for us here. >> the stakes are sky high for them. kori, you wrote a piece, a foreign affairs article that i thought the most intelligence kind of republican critique of the biden foreign policy. so just describe what is it that you -- i know you support him on ukraine. but more generally, what do you think biden is getting wrong. >> he's such a protectionist that you cannot provide the vision for the u.s. and its allies to jointly reduce our reliance on china.

the strategy is to align american allies and pressure china into actually following the rules. and becoming a responsible stakeholder. that is a strategic objective. but so emphasizing democracy versus autocracy, it makes it more difficult for countries like vietnam, whose assistance we want in this dispute, to take our side. and by pressing the military elements of it, they're overemphasizing the military elements because they can't deliver on the economic elements of it. i thought the g7 was a step in the right direction, though. and it appears to be where the secretary of state is putting a lot of his diplomatic emphasis. to align with allies and have a common approach to chinese economic practices really is the center of gravity and they took a small step in the g7 in the right direction. >> but to be clear, what you're

saying is that the protectionism is not directed just to china, you have buy america provisions. you're saying can't buy german stuff and canadian stuff. >> exactly. economic tariffs on canada are still in place. europeans are complaining justifiably about the buy america provisions of the inflation reduction act. that the biden administration has abandoned multi-lateral trade policies. and what countries want is market access, and rules that benefit all of us, not just benefiting the united states. and the administration's answer has been, but you should want a strong american economy. and the response of others is, yeah, but not at the expense of our own success. >> now when i read your article, i thought this is a very smart republican critique if only the leader republicans running for president would agree with it.

i suspect that donald trump is more protectionist than biden? >> well, certainly as protectionist as biden and they're both mistaken. expanding economic opportunity is what makes american power so cost effective in the international order. >> the irony is that ukraine is providing the opportunity for a different model. because what the united states is doing in ukraine is acting as team leader for the good guys. it is sourcing weapons and aid. it is coordinating european aid from a number of different counties to help ukraine defend itself. it is not just a crisis and a danger, it is also an opportunity to show the kind of american leadership that will give the liberal international order a future as well as a past. >> you told me something interesting while you were there, there were a whole bunch of missile raids on kyiv. and you were told by the ukrainians that it might have been tied to the chinese diplomatic initiative. >> yes.

that the russians and chinese are coordinating operationally and diplomatically and the russian large missile strikes on monday night in particular were designed to prepare ukrainians to accept compromises in their bargaining position to advance the chinese initiative. >> did you it work? >> it backfired spectacularly because the weapons the united states and the west have provided that help ukraine shield their population from russian attacks. >> because they intercepted every single one of the missiles, right? >> yes. >> the ukrainians are use american made patriot missiles to take down russian made kinzhal missiles for the best american support you could get. everybody watching this war will want the american weapons helping ukraine win. so it is an opportunity to

reknew our defense industrial race and advertise there is benefits to being on our side and we saw that firsthand. >> do you think that the chinese will play a role in finally resolving all of this? >> no. because they haven't yet acknowledged they -- the war crimes the russians are committing, they're not -- the first element of the chinese peace plan is respect for state sovereignty and they can't yet knock that russia is in violation of that. >> kori schake and gideon rose, welcome back and glad you're here safe and sound. next i'll talk to imran khan. they've tried to assassinate him and released on corruption and he still fears for his life. listen in. yeah. cashbackin. cashback like a pro with chase freedom unlimited. how do you cash back? chase. make more of what's yoyours. okay everyone, our mission is complete balanced nutrition.

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tip nation of pakistan became engulfed in political drama and violence. after the arrest of the former prime minister imran khan on what the state calls corruption charges. it was a very public and theatrical arrest as para military troops snatched him from a courthouse. across the country, khan supporters turned on pakistan's military and took to the streets. the military leaders play a role in the nation's politicians and khan said the army chief ordered his arrest. last friday he was released on bail after the supreme court deemed the arrest unlawful. to offer his side, imran khan himself joins me now. imran, welcome. let me first ask you, we have been trying to do this interview for almost two weeks now and once you're internet mysteriously cut out, the last time we were told that there was an army raid on your compound.

tell us what happened. >> well, look, ever since i came out of jail, fareed, my house is surrounded by the police. there are checkpoints. everyone is checked who come floo into my house and they have to walk a distance. the main roads, connecting my house, are blocked. an one evening when i was supposed to do your interview, i suddenly discovered that the government announced there were 40 terrorists hiding in my house and they were going to come and the police was going to come looking for them. so i opened my house for the media to come and see where these terrorists were. so that is what stopped the police raid. so unfortunately, you know, it is an unpredictable time so hence i couldn't do the

interview before. >> where do you think this goes? do you worry that the elections which have been scheduled which you are hoping to participate in will not take place? tell us what looking forward, what do you see happening? >> well, fareed, my wife so far is about democracy being dismantled. the true assembly in which we were governing, that is 70% of pakistan, cady and pun jab. we resolved our government and the constitution is clear, you have to have elections within 90 days. the government wouldn't hold elections. we then had to go to the supreme court, supreme court ruled that the elections must be held within 90 days and give the date of 14 nlth may for the election pin jab. the government refused. they violated the constitution

and the orders of the supreme court. n now my worry is that even the national elections scheduled for october, i'm worried they will hold elections unless and until they are clear that my party won't win. right now, our rating is above 70%. out of 37 elections we have swept 30. so they're petrified of elections. and because they are scared that pti and i will be back into power, everything has been done to dismantle our democracy. so right now, as we speak, over 10,000 workers have been arrested. my entire senior leadership is in jail. on tuesday i'm going to make an appearance for various bails in islamabad. 80% chances are that i will be arrested.

so right now, there is no rule of law. the judges, one of the judges said that he would give people bail and they were rearrested when they got out of the cart. the supreme court chief justice, when he said elections are to be held on 14th of may, then his decisions are discarded. so we are heading towards a law of the -- right now there is no rule of law in this country. >> stay with us. when we come back, i will ask imran khan if he has taken on the country's most powerful institution, the army. how will that tussle work out when we come back. there's my little marzipan! [ laughs ] oh, my daughter gives the best hugs! we're just passing t through n our way to the jazz jamboree. [ imitates trumpet playing ] and we wanted to thank america's number-one motorcycle insurer -for saving us money. -thank you.

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imran, you know how the story goes. that the army was happy to work with you in your first incarnation. in fact, they supported you. then they found you uncontrollable and they essentially engineered your ouster and now you have taken them on openly. can you -- are you doing that and can you win a struggle against what is often called pakistan's most powerful institution, you know the way the saying goes, that most countries have armies in pakistan it is the army that has a country. >> look, fareed, how can you win by taking on your own army? i mean, even if you win, it is a violent victory. the country loses. i mean, pakistan needs a powerful army. all you have to do is look around the muslim world and just look at the -- i mean the devastation that is going on

there. so, i'm a firm believer that the country needs a strong defense and needs to be able to defend itself as it did in the war on terror. because, i mean, we got ourselves into a mess. and 80,000 pakistanis died. and the army gave great sacrifices. the problem right now is -- first let me correct you. i never had a problem with the army. i worked knowing they were entrenched, the army has been -- it is a fact of 75 years the army has -- three times they've ruled through martial law. and half of the families were chosen, the sharifs. so i was working with them. i was working with the general. what happened when he decided to switch horses and abandon me and topple my government? i still am not sure. i'm not still sure of his -- he

struck a deal with the current prime minister for his extension. but i never knew what happened. all i know is that the last six months he just worked to remove my government and he's openly said in an interview that he decided i was to dangerous for the country and so my government was ousted. since then, all i have said is that the solution to pakistan's problems are in free and fair elections. because that is the only thing that will bring political stability in this country. and without political stability, our economy has just tanked. we're now in a worse situation than syria was. pakistan has never had the economy in such a tailspin as it is right now. the only way you could bring the economic stability is through

political stability which will come through elections. that is all i've been saying. now the problem i'm facing is that somehow the current lot, what i call the pdm parties, they have aligned themselves with the establishment. and they have convinced the establishment that if their elections, they're going to lose, which is a fact, now in order to keep me out, the whole democratic system has been dismantles. so when you -- the government does not listen to the supreme court and doesn't follow the constitution, when the way they have used the pretext of arson, they blamed us for the arson when i was grabbed from the -- from the high court, by the army. and the way i was grabbed, there was a reaction. but, they used that reaction,

unfortunately, to dismantle the party. so i mean, they have over 10,000 workers in jail and a lot of women have been jailed which has never happened before. >> let me ask you, before -- >> -- just one word, fareed. >> sure. >> they are now thinking of trying us in military courts. >> they're also was an attempted assassinate on you, imran. do you think that was directed by the army and do you think you are safe now? >> well, there was in november 3, there was an assassinate attempt, which i had preempted. i are predicted. i had been warning they're going to use this so-called religious fanatic who was going to, you know, kill me and then just like

our governor, he kwas killed bya fanatic. so they were going to use that to bump me off. and the reason was they have lost all of the elections and the party was getting more and more popular. so i knew that my life was in danger. i had sort of spoken about it publicly about it. then but subsequently there was fl another attempt on my life. i was lucky the judicial complex. this was a perfect trap to have me bumped off. there was one other way which i p preempted. so yes, my life is in danger. because they feel that even they put me in prison, the popularity ofpy party is at such a level right now that despite, they think that they won't be able to stop us winning. >> imran khan, thank you for coming on program and please

stay safe. next on "gps", why does strong man populism, the kind of pop you'll is by erdogan and trump. answers when we come back. >> and also tonight at 9:00 p.m., look at back barack obama's historic presidency and the defining moments that shaped the decades politics. a cnn original series "the 2010s" continues with obama, legacy on the line. are there animals living underwater? ♪ is the ocean warm? yeahah, it can be very warm. ♪ you were made to remember some days forever. we were made to help you find the best way there. ♪

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a week from today, turkish voters will go to the polls in a runoff election between president erdogan and the opposition candidate kemal. as i told you earlier, erdogan

got 49.5% of the vote, just shy of the 50% benchmark that would have returned him to the presidency without a runoff. iz strong showing is more surprising that under his tenure turkey's economy has nose-dived. this is one of the world highest rate of inflation, at 43%, having peaked at over 85% last year. foreign investors have fled, and erdogan has a culture war between the muslim voters an the country's secular elite. does his strong showing suggest that culture matters more to turkish voters than the economy? if so, it is not a political phenomenon specifically to turkey. we see it all over the world. joining me to you to talk about the appeal of strong men like erdogan is pippa norris. she's a comparative political scientist at the harvard kennedy school and the author of many

books including cultural backlash, trump brexit and auj our tearan optimism. >> thank you, fareed. it is good to be with you. >> let's talk about the ideology of the populism. it is elites over educated seculars could month poll tan. this plays well in europe against macron and it plays well in the united states and it is playing well in turkey and it is played well in india. why do you think, what is happening in the world that we have this wave of anti-elitism directed towards all of these -- these so-called secular elites? >> so, as you say, authoritarian populism in particular on right is very much about anti-corruption, arguing that

the establishes institutions, the groups in akcademia leading those judges and the courts as well those in politics who have been there for many years, their corrupt and deeply self-serving. that is some claim and there is evidence of widespread corruption in countries around the world in scandals for money and politics for example. and the other is they could come in and save the country, be very patriotic but act in order to clean out the stables, in order to bring a fresh perspective. where a leader has been in power for many years as erdogan has and as bolsonaro has been and in many other countries, the leaders remake themselves and appear as though their a fresh force and what they claim above all is that they're going to speak for you and in an us-them

situation where the country is divided between us and them, however them and us is defined. that the leader is going to protect and speak for you. as donald trump said in his most nt i am your retribution. >> and it feels like the strong showing of erdogan and, you know, the showing that trump has the republican primary polls and as i said, if you look at the last two years of elections in latin america, what it seems to show is this cultural force and this cultural backlash is not over by a long stretch. that we are in for this -- we're in for an age of this cultural politics. >> that is absolutely right. and i think it is about a tipping point in many countries. and the problem, if we think about the united states, is this -- that the traditional attitudes toward the roles of women and men has being binary or homosexuality or things like guns, in the public, over a long-term pattern, they've

changed and they've become more liberal and moved in a more liberal direction. but unfortunately many people feel that they've been left behind by those trends and they don't agree with them. that the core moral values, what they stand before, whether it is about god and religion or marriage and the family, whether it is about hard work and how one gets ahead in america, versus a stronger welfare system, all of these are things which create cultural and moral divisions and it is very difficult to compromise if you think that one thing is clearly right and the other thing is clearly wrong. and of course, that means that that group, the social conservative groups, is been shrinking in popular attitudes if you look at public opinion polls, it is in the gallop series. but they are still large enough in the country that if they mobilize, if they organize, if they get money from donors, if they vote and many of the older populations are much stronger at voting than the younger populations, then they could still get their candidate in.

so it is a battle for essentially the cultural hearts and minds. and it can go either way. i don't think we could necessarily assume that authoritarian populists are going to rise to power everywhere. there have been some mixed fortunes and candidates from the center left can do quite well. and all is still to play for in the united states and the united kingdom in the next general election and in many other countries as well. >> pippa norris, always a pleasure to read your research on this and to hear from you in person. thank you. >> thank you. thank you, fareed. >> into thank you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. commmmunities and the people who live and work there grow and thrive.e. we''re proud to call these places home too. they're where we put down roots, and where together, we work to help move

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