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tv   Fareed Zakaria GPS  CNN  May 21, 2023 10:00am-11:00am PDT

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>> this is "gps, the global public square." welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. today on the program president biden finished a round of meetings with world leaders in japan as the debt ceiling drama continues back home in washington. we'll talk about all that plus ukraine's coming counter offensive and much more with the smart panel just back from kyiv. also, pakistan is on edge after its former prime minister imran khan was arrested and released last week. now he fears for his life, and he will join me for his side of the story. ♪ ♪ >> but first, here's my take. many of us had high hopes f turkey's general election believing that a flat-out
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victory for the opposition could mark a break with the worldwide trend toward in-liberal democracy, but perhaps we were all misguided and seduced by the lure of free elections and trusting ultimately in the will of the people. in fact, what happened in turkey last week highlights the latest and most disturbing trend in the rise of liberal democracy. while incumbent recep thayyip erdogan did not win reelection results, he did better than the polls predicted and came out well ahead of his main opponent leaving him highly likely to win in the runoff scheduled for may 28th. this is stunning given that turkey is a country in economic catastrophe with sky-high inflation, and the vote also took place months after an earthquake in which the government performed miserably. consider, though, the backdrop to these elections and erdogan was up against kamal, the
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opposition colorless, and they had little alternative. the president had eliminated from the field perhaps the most powerful potential candidate against him. the charismatic politician from the same party who was on a winning struck. imam ol you, won for istanbul mayor and it was erdogan's own path to power and erdogan's power claimed fraud and the electoral council ordered a new round of voting. he was charged with insulting public officials over the incident and was tried by a judiciary which has been described as backed with ruling party loyalists. sure enough, last december, a court barred him and sentenced
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him to prison for almost three years. the decision is under appeal, but in the first time immog lu was prevented from running with the presidency. the state lavishes funds on his supporters and the country's media is slavishly p pro-government. most are supporters of erdogan and the largest business group that's maintained its business from the president and found itself mysteriously facing tax fraud and ultimately sold its media holdings to a more compliant owner. state television, the country's main source of broadcast news extolls the vifrtues of the stae department. they spent. 32 hours on erdogan versus 32
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minutes for his opponents. the turkish government initiated more than 30,000 cases for the offense of insulting the president. that's just in the year 2020. erdogan's government has systematically taken over ostensibly independent institutions including courts and the body controlling elections. if the may 28 election turns out to be close and the opposition candidate comes out ahead you can be sure that erdogan would appeal and that the election authorities will rule for him just in the case of the istanbul vote. india faces severe government scrutiny limiting their ability to operate. the government has passed laws giving tight control over social media and they asked twit tore block the accounts of a dozen opposition figures. as february's earthquake when the government confronted intense criticism on social
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media for the mishandling of the national disaster it simply blocked twitter for a while. this is the next innovation of liberal democrat. elected presidents and prime ministers pass laws that give them sustained and structural advantages over their opponents. they use government funds to shower their supporters with benefits and the government files stacks and regulatory cases against independent media groups and re-shapes independent agencies and courts into the ruling party and then they hold free elections. erdogan's tactics will seem stunningly familiar to citizens in many democracies around the world. look at india, once home to fiercely independent media today it has fallen to 161st in the world press freedom index put out by reporters without borders. look at hungary where the government and pro-government
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businesses control almost all of the country's media and the body overseeing the judiciary became effectively an arm of the ruling party drawing in ire of the european union. the office's first hand was the godparent to prime minister vi victor orbonn's oldest child. when elections are held in these circumstances and they duly note that the ballots were properly cast and counted and then certify such elections to be genuinely competitive, they're doing us all a disservice. we need a new vocabulary to describe this phenomenon. are such elections free? technically yes, they are free, but also profoundly unfair. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington post column this week and let's get started. ♪ ♪
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earlier today in hiroshima, japan, ukraine's president volodymyr zelenskyy said that while it wasn't a fair comparison, images of the nuclear devastation in hiroshima reminded him of what is happening in bakhmut, the most hard fought city in his own country. yesterday the leader of the wagner group, a mercenary force for russia announced his fight h ers had taken bakhmut and zelenskyy denies. joining me to discuss ukraine and the g7 and many other issues are a senior fellow and director at the foreign studies at the american enterprise institute and gideon rose at the council on foreign relations and the foreign editor of foreign
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affairs. welcome, you are both back from a trip to kyiv. literally just back. corey, what were your impressions? you got to meet a lot of people there? yeah. the grim commitment ukrainians have to succeeding against the russian invasion, they own it now in a way that even six months ago when i was last there it felt more like they were persuading themselves, they could withstand it and now they know they can. >> and gideon, when you hear people say the ukrainians need to understand they have to compromise. they're not going to be able to reclaim all their territory. we need to start some process. what was your sense of how they view those arguments? >> every single person we talked to from generals to soldiers, from cabinet ministers to local officials and to civil society figures and ordinary citizens was absolutely united. they see this as a fight for their lives. they say we're defending our
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homes, our children and our future and we are going to reclaim our territory and they did not say with you or without you, but they suggested that the fight will continue until ukraine is free. the only question is how long it will take and how much we have to suffer to get there. >> and why -- so do they think that, you know, they'll be able to get everything and not just the 2022 line, but the 2014 lines? >> yes. what was the most interesting thing was as corey said, in the fall you were there and you saw them almost trying to convince themselves, not false bravado, but bolstering their own confidence and now the grim determination is met with a quiet confidence and they've taken everything the russians have to throw at them. they've survived and they're now ready to punch back and one general i talked to at one point said, and i asked him where are we in the war? we said woe're toward the end o the first half and we're in the end of the locker room knowing they can beat the russians and
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the only question is what time scale and what damage is caused along the way. what is the sense of what is going on on the russian side? >> as gideon said, the russian conduct of the war has meant that ukrainians, no ukrainian government could possibly leave their people or territory under russian control. i heard several senior people in the ukrainian government suggest that perhaps a leadership transition is already going on in russia and it's not that vladimir putin is permitting the lesser figures to bicker and fight and people are falling out of windows and generals being cashiered. it's that he no longer has the ability to control it. >> that's fascinating. so when you see prigozhin, the head of the wagner forces dissenting from the defense minister, this is something putin has lost control over? >> yeah.
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and we should not avert our eyes from the fact that the next russian government may be worse than the current russian government. >> wow. gideon, you have written a lot how wars end. do you think that the ukrainian view of this is plausible? that they can actually win? >> after this trip, i do. wars end when either you have a durable stalemate that can't be moved or both sides come to understand that the trend is irrees havibly in one correction. that's when the endgame starts. we're not there yet. each side is still trying to fight it out and each side thinks that if the other gives up and if the west pulls back support then maybe the tide will turn, so what's crucial now is to continue to pledge support for ukraine so that the russians realize that we are not going to back out, and with that the iranians -- the iranians, the ukrainians need the tools to win, but they know now that they can beat the russians on the
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ground, and so the only question now is when will the gap between the objective russian situation and russia's real perception of it change and i think that will happen this year. i don't think the war will end this year, but i think as this year progresses, the gap between russia's really bad situation and its public recognition of it will tart to change. >> kori, what was your sense of how much the ukrainians are worried that the western support will falter, will dry up any of that? >> i think they are worried and justifiably worried because the countries of the west are given an enormous amount of assistance especially the united states and that's why president zelenskyy's trip to the arab league summit and his trip around to european capitals mattered so much. it mattered for showing the breath of ukrainian support and showing russia's isolation and it mattered for gaining
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commitments of additional assistness of ukraine and in forecast the commitment of fighter aircraft can attack russian forces from outside the repons. >> i r to ask you because you're a republican, do you worry between donald trump and some of the things governor desantis has said, some of the things that josh hawley and people like that, that there is substantial republican opposition to supporting ukraine with the kind of fullness that the biden administration has done? >> yeah. i think there is a position, but it really matters that the leadership including speaker mccarthy are committed to continued assistance to ukraine. >> so you think that if donald trump goes on the campaign trail and becomes the nominee and says what he keeps saying which i'll just stop the fighting.
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you think the republicans in congress will still vote for u vainian aid? >> i do. i do. the united states is a shrewd and a lot of times we're a sentimental actor and the battle is a good against evil and ukrainians are willing to restrict their military operations in their own territory and not extend it into the sanctuary of russian territory really underscores who the good guys and the bad guys are, and i think americans understand that and that's why republicans will continue to support aid to ukraine. and in addition, even in shrewdly strategic terms, for 5% of u.s. defense spinning last year and are zero military -- and the ukrainians are destroying it. that's absolutely in perk's
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instance. >> straight up, now he is back on his way to washington thanks to american political dysfunction. i'll discuss that with the panel and foreign policy in a moment. like a smart coffee grinder - that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that... ...i need a breakthrough card... like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more... plus unlimited 2% cash back on all other purchases! and with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas... ...a brilliant reality! the ink business premier card from chase for business. make more of what's yours.
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to washington to deal with the debt ceiling crisis. joining me again are kor ishaqi of the american enterprise institute and gideon on the council of foreign relations. republican, what do you think of the debt ceiling crisis and do you think it gets up? >> i am sympathetic to concerns by my fellow republicans about the level of government spending, but threatening to default on the nation's debt is bad governance. the right way to rein in spending is through the practice of passing authorization and appropriation bills, not threatening to default. >> do you think that -- my fear is kevin mccarthy's worries that he will not keep his job if he compromises. >> that's certainly a possibility. >> what did anyone talk about this in ukraine, gideon? >> no. they were concerned about their own future and less concerned about ours. i wish there was the same
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solidarity here that we saw in ukraine across the different parties and against politicians that might run against each other and they were still onboard for the current effort and one hopes that could be a lesson for us here. >> the stakes are sky-high for them. >> kori, you wrote a piece on the foreign affairs article that was the most intelligent republican critique of the biden foreign policy. so just describe what is it that you -- i know you support him on ukraine, but more generally, what do you think biden is getting wrong? >> what he's getting wrong is he is such a protectionist that he cannot provide the vision for the u.s. and its allies to jointly reduce our reliance on china. the strategy is to align american allies and pressure china into actually following the rules and becoming a responsible stakeholder. that's a strategic objective, but by so emphasizing democracy
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versus autocracy, it makes it more difficult for countries like vietnam whose assistance we want in this dispute to take our side. and by pressing the military elements of it they are overemphasizing the military elements of it because they can't deliver on the economic elements of it. i thought the g7 was a step in the right direction, though, and it appears to be where the secretary of state is putting a lot of his diplomatic emphasis to align with allies that have a common approach to chinese economic practices really is the center of gravity and they took a small step in the g7 in the right direction. >> but to be clear, what you're saying is that the protectionism is not directed just at china. when you have buy america provisions, what you're saying is you can't buy german stuff, you can't buy canadian stuff.
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>> exactly. tariffs, economic tariffs on canada are still in place. europeans are complaining, justifiably, about the buy america provisions of the inflation reduction act that the biden administration has abandoned multilateral trade policies and what countries want is market access and rules that benefit all of us, not just benefiting the united states. and the administration's answer has been, but you should want a strong american economy and the response of others is yeah, but not at the expense of our own success. >> this is a smart critique if only the republicans running for president would agree with it. i suspect donald trump is more protectionist as biden. >> he is certainly as protectionist as biden, and they're both mistaken. expanding economic opportunity
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is what makes american power so cost effective in the international order. >> the irony is ukraine is providing the opportunity for a different model because what the united states is doing in ukraine is acting as team leader for the good guys. it is sourcing weapons and aid. it is coordinating european aid from a number of different countries to help ukraine defend itself. it's not just a crisis and a danger. it's also an opportunity to show the kind of american leadership that will give the liberal international order a future as well as a past. >> you told me something interesting. while you were there there were a whole bunch of missile raids on kyiv, and you were told by the ukrainians it might have been tied to the chinese diplomatic initiative. >> yes. that the russians and chinese are coordinating operationally and diplomatically and the suspicion in kyiv is that the russian missile strikes and the large missile strikes monday
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night in particular were designed to prepare ukrainians to accept compromises in their bargaining position to advance the chinese initiative. >> did it work? >> it backfired spectacularly because of the weapons the united states and the west have provided that help ukraine shield their population from russian attacks. >> because they intercepted every single one of those missiles, right? >> yes. >> the ukrainians are using american-made patriot missiles to take down russian-made hypersonic kensol missile and the best advertisement for american technology and american support you can get. everybody watching this war will want the american weapons that are helping ukraine win. so it's an opportunity to renew our defense industrial base and advertise that there's actually benefits on being on our side and we saw that first hand. >> do you think that the chinese will play a role in finally resolving all this? >> no because they haven't yet
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acknowledged the war crimes the russians are committing. they're not -- the first element of the chinese peace plan is respect for state sof rentee and they can't yet acknowledge that russia's in violation of that. >> corey schake, gideon rose, welcome back safe and sound. embattled prime minister imran khan, they've tried to assassinate him and arrested and released and still fears for his life. listen in. ♪past t he pain, and past your limits. no matter what, we go on. biofreeze - i'm lynette. this is my husband, arthur. - yeah, you wouldn't believe we're in our 70's, huh? (lynette and arthur laugh) - i have recommended consumer cellular to so many people. - she was the one to convince me to come over to her side. (arthur laughs) - that's right! - [announcer] come over to consumer cellular
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nuclear-tipped nation of pakistan became engulfed in political drama and violence after the arrest of its former prime minister imran khan on what the state calls corruption charges. it was a very public and theatrical arrest as paramilitary troops snatched him
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from a courthouse. across the country, kahn supporters then turned on pakistan's military and took to the streets. pakistan's military leaders play an outsized role in the nation's politics and khan has said the army chief ordered his arrest. last friday khan was released on bail after the nation's supreme court deemed the arrest unlawful. to offer his side of this extraordinary story imran khan himself joins me now. imran, welcome. >> let me first ask you -- >> thank you. >> we have been trying to do this interview for almost two weeks now and once your internet mysteriously cut out. the last time we were told there was an army raid on your pom pound. tell us what happened. >> well, look, ever since i came out of jail, fareed, my house is surrounded by the police.
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there are checkpoints -- everyone is checked who comes into my house and they have to walk a distance. the main roads, you know, connecting my house are blocked and aone evening when i was supposed to do your interview i suddenly discovered that the government had announced there were 40 terrorists hiding in my house and the police were going to come looking for them. so i opened my house for the media to come any see where the terrorists were and that's what stopped the police raid. so, unfortunately, it's an unpredictable time so, hence, i couldn't do the interview before. >> where do you think this goes? do you worry that the elections which have been scheduled which you were hoping to participate in will not take place? tell us, looking forward, what do you see happening? >> well, fareed, so far
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democracy has been dismantled. the two provincial assemblies in which we were governing that's 70% of pakistan, punjab. we dissolved our governments and the constitution is clear you have to have elections within 90 days. the government wouldn't hold elections. we then had to go to the supreme court. the supreme court ruled that the elections must be held within 90 days and give the date of 14th of may for the election of punjab. the government refused. they violated the constitution and the orders of the supreme court. now my worry is that even the national election which i should review for october, i am worried that they will overrule
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elections unless and until they are clear my party won't win. right now our rating is 70%. out of 37 elections we have swept 30. so they're petrified of elections, and because they are scared that pti, and i will be back into power, everything has been done to dismantle our democracy. so right now, as we speak, over 10,000 workers have been arrested. my entire senior leadership is in jail. on tuesday i am going to make an appearance for various -- in islamabad, 80% chance that i will be arrested. so right now there's no rule of law. the judges, one of the judges cried saying that he would give people bail and they were re-arrested when they got out of the court. the supreme court chief justice, i mean, his -- when he says e t
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14th of may, his decisions are discarded. so we are heading towards law of the jungle. right now there is no rule of law in this country. >> stay with us. when we come back, i will ask imran khan, he has taken on the country's most powerful institution, the army. how will that tousle work out when we come back. kyle? and while romeo over here is trying to look cool, things are about to heat up. uh-oh. darn it, kyle! and if you don't have the right home insurance coverage, you could end up paying for this yourself. sorry mr. sanchez! get allstate, and be better protected from mayhem, like me. that's a hard no. my most important kitchen tool? my brain. so i choose neuriva plus. unlike some others, neuriva plus is a multitasker
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>> and we are back with pakistan's former prime minister imran khan who is at the center of a political maelstrom in his country right now. imran, you know how the story goes that the army was happy to work with you in your first incarnation, in fact, they supported you, but then they found you uncontrollable and they essentially engineered your ouster, and now you have taken them on openly. can you -- are you doing that
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and can you win a struggle against what is often called pakistan's most powerful institution? you know that the saying goes that most countries have armies. in pakistan it is an army that has a country. >> look, fareed, i'm -- how can you win by taking on your own army? i mean, even if you win it's a victory. the country loses. i mean, pakistan needs a powerful army. all you have to do is look around the muslim world and just look at the -- i mean, the devastation that is going on there. so i am a firm believer that the country needs a strong defense and it needs to be able to defend itself as it did in the war on terror because we got ourselves into a mess and 80,000 pakistanis died and the army gave great sacrifices. the problem right now is --
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first, let me just correct you. i never had a problem with the army. i worked knowing that they were entrenched. the army has been -- it's a fact of 75 years the army has three times they have ruled directly through martial law. the last six years half has been ruled by the army and the half by the two families which were the sharifs. so i was working with them. i was working with the general. when he decided to switch horses and abandon me and topple my government? i still am not sure. i'm still not sure of his motives. one of them is he had struck a deal with the current prime minister for his extension, but i never knew what happened. all i know is that the last six months he just worked to remove my government and he's openly said after wards in an interview claimed that he decided that i
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was too dangerous for the country and my government was ousted. since then, all i have said is that the solution to pakistan's problems are free and fair elections because that's the only thing that would bring political stability in this country and without political stability, my economy has just tanked. we now are in a worse situation. pakistan has never had an economy in such a tailspin as it is right now. the only way that you can bring economic stability through political stability is to overcome elections and that's all i've been saying and the problem i'm facing is that somehow the current lot, the -- what i call the pdm parties and they have aligned themselves with the establishment, and they have convinced the establishment
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that if they're elections and they're going to lose which is a fact. now in order to keep me out, the whole democratic system is being dismantled. so you don't -- the government does not listen to the supreme court and doesn't follow the constitution, when the way they have used the pretext of arson that blamed us for the arson when i was grabbed by the high court by the army and the way i was grabbed there was a reaction, but they used that reaction, unfortunately, to dismantle the party. so i mean, they have over 10,000 workers are jailed. a lot of women have been jailed which has never happened before -- >> let me ask you -- >> just one word, fareed. >> sure.
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>> they are now thinking of trying us in military courts. >> there also was an attempted assassination on you, imran. do you think that was directed by the army and do you think you are safe now? >> well, was there in -- in november 3 there was an assassination attempt which i had preempted which i had predicted and i had been wanting that they were going to use the so-called religious fanatic who was going to, you know, kill me and just like sylvan ghana, he was killed by a religious fanatic and they were going to use that to bump me off and the reason was that they had lost all of the bielections and the party was getting more and more popular. i knew that my life was in danger and i had spoken publicly about it, but subsequently,
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there was another attempt on my life. i was very lucky to get away. this was on the 18th of march in the judicial complex, and it was a perfect trap to have me bumped off and there was another one which i had preempted and already announced. yes, my life is in danger because they feel that even if they put me in prison my popularity is so high that they won't be able to stop us winning. >> imran khan, thank you for coming on the program and please stay safe. next on "gps," why does strong men populism, the kind of politics espoused by likes of erdogan, orbonn and donald trump have an enduring appeal for so many. answers when we come back, also tonight at 9:00 p.m. look back at barack obama's historic
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a week from day turkish voters will go to the polls in a runoff election between erdogan and opposition candidate kemal kilicdaroglu. erdogan permitted better than expected in the first round getting 49.5% of the vote just shy of the 50% benchmark that would have returned him directly to the presidency without a runoff. erdogan's strong showing is all the more surprising given the fact under his tenure turkey's economy has nose dived.
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the country has one of the worst highest rates of inflation and now currently at 43%, having peaked at over 85% last year. foreign investors have fled turkey under erdogan's rule. erdogan has played up a culture war between his base, conservative often rural religious muslim voters and the secular elite. does his strong showing suggest culture matters more to turkish voters than the economy? if so, it is not specific to turkey. we see it all over the world. joining me now to talk about the appeal of strong men like erdogan is a comparative political scientist at the harvard kennedy school and author of men books including "cultural backlash. ." pippa, welcome. >> a pleasure to be with you. >> let's talk about the kind of ideology of this populism. because it is often anti-elite,
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anti-these distant elites,off educated, secular cosmopolitan. it plays well in mexico and colombia and europe and in the united states and playing with he well in turkey and india. what is happening in the world that we have this wave of anti-elitism directed towards all these so-called secular elites? >> as you say, authoritarian populism in particular on the right is very much about anti-corruption arguing that the established institutions, k3wgroups in beiacademia, those in the jus and ku courts and as well as the incumbents, they are corrupt and deeply self-serving. that is the first claim. and to some extent there is
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evidence of widespread corruption in many countries and problems of scandals about money and politics. and the other claim is that the populist leader can come in and basically save the country, be very patriotic, but abtct in orr to bring a fresh perspective in politics. in some cases that is simply rhetoric in particular where a leader has been in pow foremany years as erdogan has. they remake themselves and appear as though they are a fresh course. and what they claim above all is that they will speak for you and in the us/them situation where the country is deeply divided between us and them, however them is defined, however us is defined, that the leader will protect and speak for you. and as donald trump said in his most recent talk, i am your retribution. >> feels like the strong showing of erdogan and the showing that
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trump has in the republican primary folds and as i said if you look at the last two years of elections in latin america, what it seems to show me is this cultural force, this cultural backlash is not over by a long stretch, that we are in for an age of this cultural politics. >> that is absolutely right. and i think that it is about a tipping point in many countries. and the problem if we think about the united states is this -- the traditional attitudes towards for example the roles of women and men is binary or towards homosexuality or many other liberal things like guns. in the public, they have become more liberal, they have moved in a more liberal direction. and unfortunately many people feel that they have been left behind by those trends and they don't agree with them, that they core moral values, what they stand for, whether about god and religion, whether it is about
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marriage and the family, whether it is about hard work and how one gets ahead in america, versus a stronger welfare system, all of these are things which create cultural and moral divisions. and it is very difficult to compromise on moral issues if you think that one thing is clearly right and the other thing is clearly wrong. and of course that means that that group, the social conservative groups, has gradually been shrinking in popular attitudes if you look at the public opinion polls. but still large enough that if they organize and mobilize, if they get money from donors, if they vote, and older populations are stronger at voting than younger populations, then they can still get their candidate in. so it is a battle for hearts an minds and it can go either way. i don't think that we can assume that authoritarian pop uheulist will rise too hoyer everywhere.
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so all is still to play for in the united states and many other country as well. >> about inpa, always a pleasure to read your research on this and to hear from you in person. thank you. >> thank you. thanks to all of you for being part of the program this week. i'll see you next week. .of my p. (vo) introducing myplan from verizon. you get exactly what you want and only pay for what you need. and it all starts at just $30. it's your verizon. when you find your reason to go on, let it pull you past the doubt. past the pain, and past your limits. no matter what, we go on. biofreeze
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rich, velvety coffee. cafe-quality espresso. one high-pressure system that can do both. brew to your heart's desire. with the l'or barista system. a masterpiece in taste thank you so much for joining me this sunday. i'm fredricka whitfield. and breaking news on the ever changing stu