tv Fareed Zakaria GPS CNN June 11, 2023 10:00am-11:00am PDT
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justice department throws 37 charges at former president donald trump saying he mishandled classified documents. the indictments say the papers laid out everything from america's military weaknesses to foreign nations' nuclear capacities. what does it mean for u.s. security? should he have been indicted? >> i'm an innocent man. i did nothing wrong. >> then -- >> artificial intelligence may be the most important development of our time, but is it the most dangerous as well? ♪ >> we know it will replace jobs and blur the lines of reality, but could it be a larger, existential threat? i'll talk to geoffrey hinton known as the godfather of ai who says yes. >> the worry is can we keep them working for us when they're much more intelligent than us?
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>> also, how do you end extreme poverty globally? >> it's a very tall order, but r.j. banga wants to do just that. he's the brand new head of the world bank. he's tasked with taking global action in a world where the west and russia are at odds and tensions are rising with china. he'll join me live for his first interview in the job. >> but first, here's my take. if you want a glimpse into the future, come to berlin and walk down the bustling avenue often described as the city's champs elysee. a new car showroom, sleek, with a design center, showrooms and more. as you enter you see what looks
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like a bugatti or a ferrari except more stylish, it's an ep-9, a top of the line racing car that has been sold to a handful of customers for around $3 million each. the company dehind is is neo, one of china's new car makers which is going to take the world by storm. ten years ago china exported a tiny number of cars relatively. today it is the world's leading exporter of automobiles, handily ousting japan from that position. it is especially strong in electric vehicles. two of every three evs made in the world are made in china. as we think about chinaa's weaknesses these days and it has several, it's worth remembering its formidable strengths and the degree to which it is intertwined into the global economy. [ bell ringing ] >> neo's cars are designed in
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munich and it has research centers in oxford and england as well as beijing and jianshanghad it assembles vehicles in china. europe is an interesting place to think about china. i traveled to three european countries this week, germany, italy and britain and everywhere the conversation turned to the united states' relationship with china. they were strongly behind the biden administration's toward russia and credited the president with uniting the west and uniting it with strategy and purpose. and more generally about biden's new economic policies as outlined by jake sullivan, the national security adviser. former british prime minister gordon brown explained the european dilemma.
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europe needs an industrial policy, but it cannot afford to mimic the administration's protectionism, he told me. for europe, trade is vital. its prosperity is dependent on trade with the rest of the world including china in a way that america's is not. unlike america, europe imports energy and is not self-sufficient. despite the surface agreement across the atlantic, this could become a growing divide. he acknowledged that the administration had made moves to expand tread ties, but expressed the concern that all of them are bilateral in regional efforts that might undercut global trade. at the expense of any real discussion of what a modern, multilateral would look like. helen schmit, former prime minister of denmark concurred, europe cannot divorce itself from china, she explained. that would be the end of globalization. that is why we want to derisk,
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not decouple. derisk it, a term famously applied by eu commission president ursula vanderleien is the hardest diplomacy these days and even the biden administration says it wants to derisk rather than decouple and sullivan admitted as much on gps last week and many i spoke to in europe worry that this is a rhetorical change and that china's responses will keep moving the ratchet up. when people in washington hear these, they are too passive and pacifists, admitting that china would have to create a new coalition with japan and vietnam, but even with these asian countries there will be limits. china is a close second to the u.s. as india's top trading partner and new delhi is well aware that its future growth
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depends on maintaining a healthy, economic relationship with the middle kingdom. the former singaporean diplomat and author of "the asian 21st century" points out that discussions in the west that the world growth is coming from asia using his own region as an example. in 2000, japan's economy was eight times larger than southeast asia, a see an and about three years, a seesean is largest trading relationship in the world right now is between china and asean, almost a trillion there ares and these countries cannot grow without open and vibrant trade especially with china. america's strategic genius his always been to offer the world not a pax americana, but rather
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a global system that was open, free and fair. we all need a well functioning and expanding global trading system and multilateral institutions that work, noted gordon brown. abu bani described bill clinton often needed stronger global institutions by responding they would, indeed, constrain america and also constrain the new rising powers in the world. he said we desperately need more of that enlightened self-interest from washington these days. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington post column this week, and let's get started. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ 31 of the 37 counts of the federal indictment against donald trump accused the former
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president of illegally retaining classified documents. federal prosecutors say that at mar-a-lago, his private club in florida that doubles as his home, boxes of presidential papers containing classified information were stored everywhere, from the stage in a ballroom to a chandeliered and gilded bathroom. i asked ken naftali to talk about the political impacts of all of this. he is a former director of the nixon library and a cnn presidential historian and next month he begins a new road teaching at columbia's school of internat international and public affairs. >> you are trained as an intelligence historian. so looking at all of this, what can we glean from what were these documents? >> did they reveal things. how worried should we be? >> well, for viewers who remember benedict cumber batch
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in "the imitation game," they remember that in world war ii, certain secrets were very fragile if the nazi his figured out that we were intercepting messages and the nazis could have changed their communication system and we were going to shut out and we were going to be blind. the special prosecutor jack smith, in order to underscore the severity of the alleged crimes has actually revealed to us in the indictment the level of sensitivity of the documents, so donald trump caused to move to the bathroom documents that include code and cipher information, information that we derive from breaking other country's codes. donald trump put in the bathroom or had put in the bathroom material from agents working, putting their lives at risk for us working in other countries. he put at risk material from our satellites that would reveal the res
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resolution offer satellites and all of this is about as sensitive material and these related to the military capabilities of foreign gossip. this is not gossip. this is not high-level goes on s inand this is about protecting ourselves and our allies. one cannot imagine a collection of more valuable information than those that donald trump considered his trophies. >> and when people say, well, but biden had some documents in his garage and hillary in the server, what strikes you as the difference here? >> what's important here is the reaction to the u.s. government. when the u.s. government determined that donald trump had not turned over everything the u.s. government asked for it nicely as it should. donald trump after all is a former president, you have to treat them with respect though they don't have the powers they once had.
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>> donald trump engaged in a systematic conspiracy from reclaiming documents that belonged to the american people and should be protected. there's no evidence that mike pence, former vice president biden or hillary clinton engaged in systematic deception and conspiracy to prevent the u.s. government from protecting the secrets that we americans expect the u.s. government to protect. >> in effect, realize this was a mistake. >> they all make -- you know, our government allows for mistakes. people make mistakes and we're talking about huge amounts of material that move at the end of a presidency or moves after someone leaves office, but when you figure out that something's missing, our system requires good faith on the part of former member ps of the government. basically, they have to say, we made a mistake, let me help you
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rectify the mistake and our government recognizes that and there will be no charges, vice president pence, former vice presidented bien and now president biden and hillary all engaged in a process to rectify the mistakes they made. donald trump stonewalled and apparently engaged in a conspiracy with the valet to make sure that even his lawyer didn't know the nature of the materials he was keeping. >> and we know that there are some tweets, you pointed out that mark -- he talks about the battle plans with iran and says -- tell that story. so you have -- we don't know how, but the national archives figured out that donald trump had material he shouldn't have had in mar-a-lago. this is in 2021. he's already left office and he knows through his lawyers that the national archives wants it back and it's the archive for the presidential materials and at the same time that he's
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stonewalling the archives, he is showing off to a group, mark meadows, ghost rider, his former chief of staff and he's showing off to them a battle plan for attacking iran. why is he doing that? because he wants to prove to them, hey, general milly, he's going around saying that i'm crazy, that i want to attack iran. let me show you, he's the crazy one and i've got it in a highly secret and by the way, i could have declassified it, but i can't anymore. this was caught on tape. this was part of the indictment and we know that donald trump knew that he had classified material and he knew as a former president that he couldn't declassify it and he was engaged in conspiracy from getting the government it has to protect. >> you are the former director of the nixon library. what is the parallel here with richard nixon? is there one? >> this is a reminder that we've had corrupt presidents before, but there was a red line and
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that red line was whether the president wanted a great press te presidency to exist for future generations. richard nixon realized that he was not going to burn the house down. when the supreme court said you have to turn over those tapesee did. he didn't want to, but he realized the office was presidency mattered more than him. >> he responded to subpoenas. donald trump to date still believes that he is more important than the office of the presidency, that he's more important than the security of our military, that he's more important than the security of our intelligence secrets. that he matters more than any other element of our constitutional republic. that is a line that richard nixon never crossed. >> tim naftali, always a pleasure to have you on. >> next, artificial intelligence may prove useful in almost all
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aspects of human life, but will it also bring about the end of human life? my next guest dubbed the god father of ai says it does indeed pose an existential risk. that important story in a moment. a paradise for parents. lomita feed, current caretaker and owner. we did not know anything about the employee retention credit. that is a legitimate tax credit. so innovation refunds has really helped guide me through the process. just had to get a few of my records together, submit that, and they made it as painless as possible. i can't thank innovation refunds enough for what they did. starting a new chapter can be the most thrilling thing in the world. there's an abundance of reasons to get started. how far we take an idea is a question of willpower. because progress...
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but don't know what to do next? call invent help today. they can help you get started with your idea. call now 800-710-0020. when chatgpt burst into the public consciousness late last year, its abilities stunned the world. headlines blared that it was able to pass the bar exam and hold human-like text conversations. it writes computer code, term papers and shakespearean pennsylvaniatameter. google, microsoft and other companies have their own artificial intelligence software. people have been fascinated and frightened. the fright was heightened last month when more than 350 computer scientists and tech executives signed on to a one-sentence statement that said, mitigating the risk of
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extinction from ai should be a global priority alongside societal scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war. one of the signatories is a man who has been called the godfather of artificial intelligence, geoffrey hinton. hinton left his job at google so that he could freely discuss the risks of ai, and that is what i want to ask him about today. geoffrey, welcome. >> thank you. >> first, before we get into the bad stuff, i want to, you know, give people a sense of the amazing creativity that produced ai and the thrill you must have felt. so at what point did you start to realize, as a professor, that you were beginning to -- that you were getting computers to be able to think? >> so back in 1986 we started
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usi using algorithm used by many different people and we got computers to do a little bit of thinking, but it didn't work as well as we hoped and at that point we didn't really understand that all we needed was more data and bigger computers, but by 2006 we had that and then we started seeing real progress. we started seeing artificial networks modeled after the brain, being able to do all sorts of things that conventional, symbolic ai had not been able to do like recognize objects and images, recognize speech and be able to predict the next word in a sentence. >> for you, was there a kind of crossing of the rubicon moment when you realized that computers were just getting so good and so powerful at ai? >> so i think in 2012, what of my graduate students who is now the chief scientist of open ai
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and kreshevski were much better at recognizing objects and images. you have a million images and objects and brief kwously people couldn't do better than getting 25% wrong and that was a huge breakthrough and it was clear this suv wtuff was working bett than previous forms of ai. >> when did you go from being exhilarated about all of of this to worrying? >> really only a few months ago. so i -- i mean, i was always worried about things like what would happen to the people whose jobs were lost to ai, and would there be battle robots and what about all of the fake news it was going to produce, and what about the echo chambers being produced used by people to click on things that would make them indignant and the idea that this stuff would bet smarter than us and would replace us and it was worried about a few months ago
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when i suddenly flipped my view. my view had been that i'm working on trying to make digital intelligence by trying to machke it like the brain and assume the brain is better and we're starting to catch up with the brain. i started to realize that maybe the algorithm we've got is better than the brain already and when we scale it up, it will be smarter than us. >> and the fundamental reason for that, i think you've said is that computers learn instantaneously and every computer in the world if it's connected learns -- gets to know everything, right? explain that scale of computing power compared to the brain. >> okay. so if you learn something and now you want to convey that to me, what you do is you produce sentences, and i try and figure out how to change the connection in my brain so i would produce the same sentences. but there's not that much information in a sentence, so it's a very slow and painful
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business conveying what you know to somebody else, but if you have two different digital computers that have exactly the same model of the world and one of them sees one document and another one sees a different document and each learned from the document they're seeing, and so if you have 10,000 computers like that, it's like you had 10,000 people all learning from different data and as soon as one person learns something everybody knows it. >> and everybody has -- intelligence is strengthened by that averaging. >> yes. >> so it's something that means theoretically even human beings can never get to that place. >> we could never see enough data. it would take us, i don't know how long, thousands and thousands of years as much as chatgpt has seen and we could not see it in our life time. >> that is, on one level, exhilarating to think of the extraordinary power this this computer will have, but
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worrying. >> it is worrying because we don't know any examples of more intelligent things being controlled by less intelligent things. with human societies you have dictators and peasants and that's not a big difference. it's in the same league and these things will get much more intelligent than us and the worry is can we keep them working for us when they're much more intelligent than us? they will, for example, learn how to deceive. they'll be able to deceive us if they want to. >> stay with us. when we come back, more with geoffrey hinton. ♪ start your day with nature made. the #1 pharmacist recommended vitamin and supplement brand. i will be a travel influencer... hey, i thought you were on vacation? it's too expensive. use priceline, they've got deals no one else has. what about work? i got you. looking great you guys!
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so when you think about, you know, the concerns about ai, how would you describe them very simply to somebody? what is it that you worry about? >> so i would distinguish a bunch of different concerns. it's what i call the existential threat which is whether they will wipe out humanity and that's definitely a threat to humanity's existence and it's not existential if the same sense. they're very bad, like they'll make a lot of jobs much more efficient by getting people, and there is a huge increase in productivity which should be good for us will cause the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer and that will be very bad for society. then there's things like battle robots where obviously, defense departments would like to have robots that replace soldiers.
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that's going to make you politically much easier to start wars and the fake news where it will be very hard to know what's true and then the division into these warring camps by the big companies trying to get you to click on stuff that will make you indignant and so you get these two different echo chambers. >> those are the small problems and they're not small problems at all. they're huge problems, but they don't involve the end of humanity so they don't call it existential. and then the problems if these things get smarter than us, and i believe they will and many areas are beginning to believe they will and in not too long, like not in 100 years, so i wish we had a simple solution like with climate change, there is a simple solution, you stop burning carbon and it will take a while, but you'll end up okay, and it's politically unpalatable
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with the oil companies and if you stop burning carbon, you solve the problem. here there isn't anything like that that i know of. the best people can come up with, is that you try to give these things strong efforts and the one example they have is that they didn't evolve. we made them. we evolved and we evolved in small, warring tribes. we wiped out 21 other species because we're very competitive and aggressive and these things don't have to be like that. we are creating them, maybe we could build them with strong ethical principles. >> and you could do that with the algorithms? >> i notice when you ask chatgpt a question say about homosexuality it gives an answer that is clearly curated in a way to be thoughtful, to not reflect every crazy view about it, but you know, kind of -- politically
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correct may be too strong, but it's a sensitive answer. >> yes. >> there is some shaping that takes place. if you ask it how do you build a nuclear weapon. it says i won't tell you that. >> if you try to get it to do the right thing by putting guardrails around it, because you have to think about every way that it might go wrong and you have to get it to follow principles. defense departments want robots that will kill people so that seems to conflict a bit with put putting ethical principles in. there is one piece of good news which is that with nuclear weapons there was an existential threat so that even with the cold war, russia and the united states would try to cooperate a nuclear war because it was bad for both of them and with this existential threat and not with the other threats, but with the
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existential threat if you take the u.s. and china and europe and japan and so on, they should all be able to agree we don't want them to wipe us out and so maybe you can get cooperation on that. >> and you could put some kind of guardrails in or ethical principles in. >> yes. >> -- around that? >> that's our hope. we don't know if we can make that work, though. >> are you going to be spending time on solving this problem? >> i think i'm too old to solve new problems. i've done my -- i've done my bit of solving problems. i will help, but i'm planning to retire. >> you leave us -- you leave humanity in a lurch. >> yeah. it doesn't sound good, does it? >> maybe your students are going to -- >> my students are very capable, and many of the people i worked with are working on this. >> we'll have to -- on that slender read, we'll have to close this out. such a pleasure.
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>> thank you. next on "gps," the first-ever sitdown interview with r.j. banger as the new ceo of the world bank. how will the former mastercard ceo foster a new geopolitical landscape? i will ask him just that when we come back. and where they came from. and what my ancestry is. and what my hopes and dreams for them are. ancestry is such a great gift for someone who not only loves history but is also a great storyteller. it was the best gift that i ever received in my entire life. because it opened up my life. now on sale for father's day. - representative! - sorry, i didn't get that. - oh buddy! you need a hug. you also need consumer cellular. get the exact same coverage as the nation's leading carriers and 100% us based customer support. starting at $20. consumer cellular.
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the biggest land war in europe since world war ii, the existential threat of climate change, a global pandemic that pushed tens of millions into poverty. it's not exactly an easy moment to come into stewardship of an organization designed to foster growth and prosperity for all its 189-member nations, but that is what faces ajay banga who just finished up his first week as 14th president of the world bank. he joins the bank from the private sector. he was previously the ceo of mastercard. banga will spend the next six
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months hopscotching the globe have saiding member countries and the first stops are peru and jamaica which he will get on a flight to go directly after this interview as head of the bank. ajay banga, welcome to the program. honor to have you on. >> thank you, fareed. >> so, one more complication, it seems to me, in addition to all of the challenges you face is that the defining reality right now that we are living with is growing tension between the largest economy in the world and the second large of the economy in the world. does that kind of geopolitical tension make it more difficult for you at the bank because at the end of the day the americans and the chinese don't agree on things. do you get paralyzed? >> i'm afraid there's no doubt that multilateralism is in a very different place today than it was years ago and that has to impact us. we're in the business of trying
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to eliminate poverty in a livable planet and while politics is important we really don't have the time and our institution to get stopped by that. we have to find the things in common that they can work on, and i spent time in beijing during the nomination and i began to speak to the finance minister of china and we talked about where things can be in common, healthcare and pandemics, climate. these are things that cut across boundaries and borders. if we look to the skies of washington, d.c. and new york, it came from a friendly bottom, and so i think that we have to understand that there are things we need to work together on, and that's what we'll do. ? a lot of people wonder whether china is willing to play in the multilateral system or is it trying to replace it? your discussions in beijing how would you characterize china's aims and goals? >> i think every country plays
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in the multilateral system and also does things bilaterally and directly as fits their own national interest. china's doing the same thing and the question is that there are expertise and the experience and the capability and how they deal with the difficult situation? have they learned all they need to do to set the kind of example that we think a large player in the world economy should be doing? that's where the criticism is coming from and every country does something bilaterally and my experience thus far is that they're willing to engage with us in the institutions at the world bank, particularly on these two or three topics i talked about. >> your big challenge, it seems to me and this is something people don't realize and after 20 or 30 years after eliminating the rise of china and india, the pandemic is now the food crisis produced by the ukraine war have actually pushed, maybe 150 million people back into
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poverty. at this point, is there a simple solution to that? is it, you know, large-scale debt forgiveness for all these countries all around the world that have had this double whammy? >> i think, fareed it's more than just debt. debt is an extra complication and at the end of the day, over the last three or four decade, the fight against poverty benefited simply by the creation of jobs. the best way to fight poverty is to give a person a job, both for their economic growth and their sense of dignity and the sense of independence and i think we should never forget that. it's not the handout as much as the job that makes the biggest difference of generations and that's got setback and yes, by ukraine and the war, yes, by circumstances of other fragility and refugees in central africa ask c
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and central america and also by climate change. . if you don't get rainfall in a year you go from two crops to one. when you go to one, you get rid of the cattle that give you dare income. you no longer get the dairy income and can no longer afford the labor on your farm? what do you do? get your kids out of school to work on the farm and it got turned back for four years and that's the kind of thing that's going in these intertwined crises and people call poly crisis and there's no one thing that will stofl it. let's get more debt fixed and that's why i feel time is of the essence and these have become intertwined issues and trying to pass them into individual units hoping one magic bullet can fix it. that's not going to happen. >> all right. stay with us because when we come back i want to talk about climate change. poor countries need trillion of dollars to tackle the challenges posed by climate. how can the world bank help shore up that money?
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and we are back with the new president of the world bank in his first television interview since he took on the job. ajay, would you look at the issue of climate change and you hear the proposals which we've all heard, the numbers people talk about are trillions of dollars. even the world bank doesn't have that kind of money. how are you going to get it? >> i think the estimates in the emerging markets alone are trillions of dollars. clearly government money, philanthropy, people like the bank, we cannot add up to those numbers although there is an exercise under way in the bank as part of the evolution agenda to see what we can do with the current balance sheet to extract
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more from it. and then there is a lot of interest in governments and philanthropies to act on that over time. but we are talking tens of billions but not trillions in this effort. so only way is to find a way to get the private sector to believe that this is part of their future. the truth is that renewable energy is cheaper than fossil fuel. what has happened in the last three, four years in technology both with generation and storage. but that pathway seems to lead to the developed world because of the kinds of risks that people perceive in some of the emerging markets. i think we have to sit with people who invest in this, understand what holds them back and find a way to take on a different playbook and take on the risks that they cannot take on.
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and that is what we can do with informed risk taking. that itself is what i'm looking at. >> when i talk to people in india, for example, there still is a lot of thenning which is you guys in the west, you polluted the world and you industrialized, we have to get our people out of poverty, we don't have time to think about climate change. >> there sis no doubt access to affordable electricity is one of the first starting points of social and economic development. in every country. therefore that is a real challenge for them to work on. the problem is that what we go through is the same energy, emissions intensive, growth model that we've had, i think the world does not have a hope of getting to the right place by 2050. so we have to find a way to create a transition plan for what we want to get to. and there is a number of countries participating in that idea, you know, in indonesia,
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vietnam, in south africa, india, there is opportunities here to consider transition from coal to natural gas to renewable electricity. >> so you are going to go on this world tour, you will listen to people, talk. one of the things that i think in the third world or developing world, whatever you want to call it, nonwestern world, there is a feeling that president of the world bank should be not an american, not an american former ceo, but should be from there. what will you say to them? >> my view is that actually i bring a whole diverse point of view. what you want is diversity at the top. that comes from your experiences and your background as much as it comes from your ethnicity and your gender. and i grew up in india, i studied in india, as prime minister modi would say, i'm made in india. i've worked overseas both in the developing world and developed
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world. and i think the u.s. should get credit for thinking of having someone of nonconventional background like me represent the opportunity to be part of the institution. >> and when you go on this tour, what are you hoping to achieve? >> three or four things. i want to, first of all, send a message of partnering with others. so i'm traveling with the head of the inter-development bank as a way of demonstrating that we will work together. and we need so much to be done, we need all shoulders of the wheel. what we don't need is silos. and secondly i'll try to meet the governments. jamaica has never had a world bank president visit them. i think an island nation dealing with climate crisis and economic crisis deserves the attention from us so i'm trying to do that as well. meet the local political system but also meet the private sector and some beneficiaries of
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projects past funded by the bank to get around what is it that makes us who we are and what more do we need to do. there is nothing to beat the value of on the ground knowledge that you pick up when you travel. >> and when you look at -- you had a very successful tenure at mastercard. i think the stock soared under your leadership. what do you think the biggest difference is? are you ready for a world in which you have so many bostons, all the nations will tell you what do, you will have to deal with the politics of it all. you didn't have to deal with that at mastercard. you said do it and they snapped their heels. >> it wasn't that easy. but i believe at my age what i really want to do, i don't want to be an arm chair critic. we have real problems in the world. i believe that the arc of humanity and climate and our people is at an important juncture. i have a granddaughter, i want her when i look at her five
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years from now, i want to be able to say to her i tried. >> a plenty to have you on, sir. thanks to all of you for being a part of my program this week. i'll see you next week. you know with priceline you could actually take that trip for less than all this. i made a horrible mistake. ♪ go to your happy price ♪ ♪ priceline ♪ (vo) this is sadie. she's on verizon. and she's got the new myplan, so she gets exactly what she wants and only pays for what she needs. she picks her perks and saves on every one.
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