this is "gps", the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you today from london. on the program, ukraine's

counter offensive has officially begun. what do the early signs reveal? and what exactly is at stake? i'll ask an all-star family. also, the electric vehicle revolution. europe and china are far ahead of america. can the u.s. catch up? i'll talk to bill ford, the executive chair of the ford motor company. finally the supreme court. it is supposed to be the final check, the ultimate safeguard to preserve america's bedrock values. but it is now itself a danger to democracy. a new book said just that. but first, here is my take. if you are surprised by saudi arabia's defactor takeover of

professional golf, get ready for many more such announcements in the months and years to come. the rise of the golf and particularly saudi arabia is already reshaping the middle east. but it will also have powerful consequences across the world. a quick quiz. what was the world's fastest growing large economy last year? if you guessed india or china, you're wrong. the answer is of course saudi arabia. which clocked in at 8.7%. kuwait and the united arab emirates registered seve growth as well. what explained the boom? the world continues to be heavily dependent on fossil fuels. ukraine sanctions against russia have reduced moscow's importance in global oil and gas markets. in addition two of the world's other major oil producing countries, iran and venezuela,

are also under sanctions and have oil and decaying oil infrastructure. america produces a lot of gas but still imported large quantities. as a result, the world is now reliant on a handful of countries in the persian gulf as stdy and suppliers of oil and gas. these conditions will likely condition over the next decade. and if they do, the -- did see one of the largest inflows of wealth in history. already the four main sovereign wealth funds of these countries have reportedly accumulated almost $3 trillion in assets, an increase of 42% over the past two years. saudi arabia expects that its pain investment vehicle, the public investment fund, will have more than $2 trillion by 2030 making it the world's largest. for the foreseeable future, these will be the most significant pools of capital on

the planet. the economic consequences of this wealth are all around us. saudi arabia has in effect bought the professional golf business. in january, the kingdom sought to buy the formula 1 racing franchise for over $20 billion. it lured christian ronaldo to pay for a reported $200 million a year. it is making huge investments in the online gaming industry. hoping to become a major player in that space. look around at prestigeous sports team and luxury hotels in europe and storied brands and you might see behind them golf. as one minister said to me, we built a lot but what is coming in now is cash to invest. this surge of wealth has re reshaped the middle east.

the players in the region, egypt, iraq, syria, of poverty and division and destruction is -- and golf is where the action is. saudi arabia has made a huge strategic shift in its foreign policy. in the early years in power, the de facto rule or mohammed bin salman used his wealth in a crude and overbearing way. he tried to pressure or topple the regimes in qatar and lebanon and waging a hot war in yemen and a cold war with iran none of which bore any fruit. the 2018 murder of jamal cack oegy occurred in this period. he appears to have matured mending ties with qatar and jordan, re-establishing diplomatic relations with iran and actively seeking a peace deal in yemen. the gulf states are all deepening relations with china

which is now the region's largest customer. in 2001, saudi arabia's trade with the middle kingdom was just over $4 billion. about one-tenth of the trade with the west. in 2021, it was about $87 billion. more than the u.s. and the e.u. combined. economic ties are growing rapidly and "the washington post" even reports that china has continued construction on the suspected military facility in the uae. saudi arabia and the gulf are not seeking a divorce with the united states. they want close economic ties with china and close security ties with america. they want to be able to deal freely with everyone, including russia. if you want to see where russians have gone to escape western sanctions, visit dubai, where you will hear more russian than arabic at some hotels. there are growing ties with india and building new links

with israel. most countries would like to pursue a policy that allows them to freelance. choosing friends in the west and east as suits their interests. if india continues down the path it is on now, saudi arabia for sure will likely be able to manage this balancing act. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington post column this week. and let's get started. ♪ last week, the world got its first official indication that the much discussed much anticipated ukraine counter offensive had actually begun. when president zelenskyy at a press conference alongside canadian p.m. trudeau talked about actions that were taking place. so how big are the stakes here and what could we expect from

the ukrainian forces? could they take back their territory? joining me now is anne applebaum and or issia lutsevych, head of the ukraine format chatham house. ann, you say that the purpose, the real purpose behind this ukraine counter offensive or the larger surprise is not murely military. explain what you mean. >> the real purpose is to create a political change in russia, by which i mean regime change. there has to be a moment when the russians decide the war is not worth fighting any more and they take their troops and leave. it is kind of decision that the french made in 1962 when they decided to pull out of algeria, and the british made that decision a number of times in their empire. there is a moment when the empire ends. and the ukrainians will use both military tactics as well as political tactics to convince

the russians to leave. remember, the war is over when the russians go home. ukrainians don't have to occupy moscow or get anybody to surrender. all they need to do is get them to leave. and so what you're going to see over the flexnext few weeks is shaping operations with he see now, attempts to cut off railway links and so on. you may see some bigger military moves but you'll also see more events like this small group of russians who went over the border, russian forces calling themselves -- you'll see drones in monscow and that is part of% waiting the russians to go home. >> that is a good way to think about it. and i think the analogy with france and algeria is right. the french tried and tried after estimated killing 1 million algerias, that they were going to get their independence. >> and they just weren't french. it wasn't going to be part of an

empire. and ukrainians at some point need to convince their not russians and they won't ever be, trying to murder lots of them to persuade them to become russian isn't twoing to work. >> it seems like right now it is these shaping operations as an was saying. there are military analysts that say the thing to do is put pressure on the southeast so you start threatening crimea. is that what would make the russians in your view, you know, feel like okay, this is getting very dangerous, it takes them very high. >> the ukrainians are very res olute to keep fighting. so what we see now is society backing this military effort, to achieve a collapse of the russian front. i don't think russians will be very much willing to pack and go, i think they really have to be deceived and the russian senior leadership and political elite will have to understand

this is just costing too too much. and what we're seeing right now even as the start of the counter offense, the main battlefield is where we're prepared over 40,000 men, they have not been deployed yet. they are still in the homefront in the bases gearing up. russians are really nervous because ukrainians have capabilities now that russians don't. >> anne, when we think about this at a broader level, the ukrainians have been amazing with their bravery and good fighters and they have been -- the skill is amazing. but i think all of us do think in the back of our minds, russia is so big. it is so many people. putin could call up another mobilization. the military budget before obviously western aid, but the russian budget was ten times the ukraine budget. do the russians have this

capacity to just take the pain and put more troops through the meat grinder and just keep going? >> well, as i said, one of the things that the ukrainians are trying to do is convince them that that won't happen. but there is some diplomacy about that. why the u.s. giving ukraine f-16s and why did the germans decide to give tanks. there are military reasons nor that but there are also signs to russia that we haven't going to stop. in other words, you could keep your war going, and we're also going to keep the war going. and so the u.s. and europe have been sending signals that they too are prepared for along conflict. so there is a psychological competition going on where the russians are saying we'll stay here forever and the west is saying so will we. and then i think as -- that is the thing to watch, is that kind of psychological battle. >> you mentioned crimea.

you know a lot of people outside from elon musk, to various importants various european statesman have said crimea should go back to russia. you have heard that the russian possession of it is appropriate given that it was originally russian and crush cough gave it to ukraine in 1964. you say ukrainians will not accept that idea. >> putin made one of the largest strategic mistakes by annexing more ukrainian territory last year. he annexed on paper four ukrainian regions which is equalizing them to crimea. it is not special. it is lost to ukraine as zaporizhzhia and danesque. there is concern about escalation and in crimea but it has already started. the black sea is very much the front line of this war.

remember, the downing of the flagship that is now at the bottom of the black sea, the snake island they attack on the bridge and in a way this war in 2014 started with crimea and this war must end with crimea being resolved. >> stay with us. next on gps, president putin on friday said that russia had started transferring tactical nuclear weapons to belarus, ukraine's neighbor to the north. he made another threat to use nukes saying he do it if there what as threat to russia. we'll discuss it in a moment. ps! and i'm about to steal this game from you just like i stole kelly carter in high school. you got no game dude, that's a foul!l! and now you're ready to settle the score. game over. and if you don't have the right home insurance coverage, well, you could end up paying for all this yourself. so get allstate, and be better protected from mayhem,

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the nuclear issue? >> it is a very serious issue. i mean, because i don't think we have ever faced this kind of a war where a nuclear state, the member of p-5 attacked the country that gave up nuclear weapons and others guaranteed integrity and sovereignty and we have to confess that we state that nuclear blackmail is not working but the west and washington and other capitals were providing that much needed military assistance to ukraine. that is why ukrainians are paying very high price for maintaining that front line, almost like clenching their teeth waiting for the time when the west will understand that honestly, russian troops must be defeated on ukrainian territory and this is where putin has the upper hand with this nuclear saber rattling that he keep using from the source of the war. it is a serious issue. >> and you've written this

fantastic cover story for the atlantic on the counter offensive. but before that you spent some time with zelenskyy. is it your sense that he is now -- he has rally the world extraordinary. is he now directing military operations? is that being done by the general in charge? how should we think about this? who is going to run this counter offensive? >> so he said from the beginning that he's not a military commander and as far as i know he doesn't try to preempt that role. but there are political considerations to any military offensive. how it should be conducted, what should its purpose be and what role for example did the free russian forces play and what role does belarus play and i think he has a large role in that. so it is -- because it is both a military and a political project, i think he's got a role. >> what was your sense of his mood, the circle around him, the

decision-making? >> they're very self confident now. i saw him right the athe beginning of the war. we went in april of 2022, right after the russians have left kyiv and then we went back a year later and it was i have' transformed experience. he's now surrounded by much more professional people. there isn't the sense of emergency. they are -- they seem much more in control of, you know, they're economic ideas, their contacts with world. it is sort of more -- it doesn't feel like an emergency that everything is about to fall apart at any minute. so he's changing in that way. i think fundamentally he hasn't changed in that he still has an emotional belief in that the ukrainians can win and if he's able to galvanize them, they could work together and he's still very good at linking ukraine and its -- to the broader problems of democracy in the world.

they've made a big effort to get african and latin american politicians and journalists to kyiv. they understand their position in the world and they're still doing the same kind of outreach they've been doing since the beginning of the war. >> i was just looking a few weeks ago and it is quite interesting, i was inside of the office of the president meeting his team, it felt very special. that the core of ukrainian state has been preserved, that it is functional, that it is a vision for ukraine role in the architect and how we avoid the similar aggression and it was right after the hiroshima summit, it is the place where ukraine plays global. ukraines leading on a global conversation, not just the conversation within europe or just transatlantic community. and i think it is something that this war allowed ukraine to come into the forefront of the global

conversation. >> you are just back from ukraine and you have this terrific report for chatham house in which you talk about it seems to be this very important issue which is the rebuilding of ukraine. you don't mean the economic, but the democratic and ukraine was corrupt and dysfunctional. do you think that -- that people are energized about that. because right now ukraine is under martial law because they have to fight this war. but is there a determination to, you know, to make sure that it reforms and democratized fully and all of that. >> absolutely. i met a lot of representatives from civil society and we've run a survey where we asked what is the main added value of this recovery and the infrastructure in bridges and roads and they say it is about modernization of institutions. so ukraines are mature enough to understand that if it is well organized, if it is well --

there is good oversight and good participation of citizens and communities, it will allow european integration to move faster, it will allow rule of law to progress, and it will allow ukraine to build trust. ukrainans are very heapful. they are even under all of the circumstances see bright future for the country as part of the european union. >> on that hope, thank you both. next on "gps", the global race for next big car market which is lek rick vehicles. i will talk to bill ford, the executive chairman of the ford motor company about how the u.s. could keep up with the european union and china. i brought in ensure max protein with 30g of protein. those who tried me felt more energy in just two weeks.

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president biden said last

year's inflation reduction act represents the largest investigation in clean energy and american manufacturing in history. it is easy to dismiss such rhetoric as political bluster. but tis predictions about the ira may actually come true. companies have announced billions of dollars of investment in factories for sole panels and wind panels and the batteries that could power as many as 13 million electric vehicles for a year. i wanted to talk about it with bill ford, executive chair of the ford motor company and the great grandson of the founder henry ford. the elder ford changed manufacturing forever over a century ago by inventing the assembly line. bill ford, pleasure to have you on. >> thank you, fareed, it is great to be here. >> so let me ask you, a lot of people are looking at joe biden,

inflation reduction act, which is a series of tax credits and subsidies and incentives for a transition to a green economy. and they say this is going to be imagine om. t -- this is going to be mammoth. and if the tip of the spear is the electric vehicle revolution. so for you, looking at it from your advantage point, what does it look like and is that kind of characterization accurate? >> i think, yeah, it is a big change. and but we need it. we need to -- the rest of the world is moving faster than we are. china has moved at light speed towards electric and europe has moved much faster than we have. and it is inevitable and it is coming and frankly it should come. but the important thing though, and this is why the ira is really helpful, is to help establish a manufacturing base in america. right now, the technology largely is outside of america.

and a lot of it is being imported. but we feel it is really important and i think the administration does as well to build an american supply base as we transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles. >> talk about the local supply base. because you've gotten into a little trouble with some senators like marco rubio because you're building a battery facility in michigan but in order to do it, in order to use the most cutting-edge technology you're partnering with a chinese company. so inevitably there has to be some kind of this partnering. >> and it is wholly owned ford facility and all we're doing is licensing the technology. that is it. and actually it is exactly what the ira was set up to do. because we're localizing production in america. our engineers will work with that technology integrated into

our vehicles so we will learn that technology. we'll understand how in this case catl, not only makes the batteries, but also, you know, prepares them to be integrated to the vehicle. that is really important. that our engineers gain that knowledge so we could eventually do it ourselves. >> when you hear people talk about the -- the building america part of it, there are many people, economists who criticize it saying, look, what you're going to end up doing is passive raise costs if everything has to be manufactured in america. you're not taking advantage of global supply chains, global manufacturing, the fact that you can source things from all over the world in order to make something, the famous example if is the iphone was made in america, it would cost four times as much as it does now. what do you say to that? >> i say making things in america matters. and if we outsource it all,

we're not going to have a strong economy. that is for sure. the multiplier effect of a manufacturing job is much greater than any other part of the economy. other countries know this and that is why their so anxious to get the auto jobs in their countries. >> but when you look at this cost issue, is this part of what is going on with the evs, with the electric vehicles because you lose money even though your making a lot. on each car you lose money. >> we do. now. but it is like all new technology, once you come down the cost curve and climbing up the production curve, and the costs will come down. and they're coming down even as we're sitting here and each generation the technology will get better and better and more efficient and you could look at any other industry that has adopted any technology, the early days were typically lost leaders and things were expensive. but once the technology ramped up, cars started to come down quite dramatically and we see

that happening here too. >> when you look at the future of the american economy right now with all of this transition taking place, with the infrastructure bill, which is, you know, a largest in 20, 25 years, how do you feel about the american economy? >> well, i mean, i think there is a lot we could be happy with. and but, you know, we have too much debt as a country. yes, we just raised the debt ceiling but that is kicking the can down the road. and i think we -- you know, in china and it owns a lot of our debt which is worrisome, i think, from a national security standpoint. but i think a lot of good things also have been done. now are we heading into a recession? i don't know. my crystal ball is pretty cloudy on that one. >> next up, how does ford plan to keep up with the stiff competition in electric vehicles

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kill it to save it. that is the mandate facing many automakers who have made their name on gas guzzling vehicles and are now trying to pivot to electric. how that working out at ford? more of my interview with bill ford, executive chair of the ford motor company. >> how difficult is it to change the culture of your whole manufacturing process which has really been an industrial process, whereas an electric car is software on wheels. >> right. >> tesla does seem to have an advantage in that it is a technology company that happens to make cars. whereas you're a car wecompany trying to move up the technology

chain. >> there is merit to both. think tesla has found that making the car part isn't as much fun as they thought it was. it is difficult. and you're right, we're trying to catch them now on the technology side. but i think one of the things for sure is that not everybody is ready for evs. and that is fine. we have a whole incredibly attractive portfolio of internal combustions and we're going to have those vehicles for quite sometime because one of the questions i'm frequently asked, how quickly is this going to happen and what is the adoption rate? and the short answer is we don't know. and we have a wonderful portfolio of vehicles which we're continuing to invest in. i was in kentucky last week which we introduced the super duty, it doesn't lend itself to electricification. will it some day? yes, probably.

but we're not there yet. so for some segments, yes, gasoline will still be needed. so it is important that we have a mix of vehicles. and if this thing all breaks much faster than what i just described, we'll be ready. >> if things, if ev adoption moves faster than people are expecting or even at the same pace, there are concerns about the supply chain there. do we actually have the capacity to get as much lithium, as much copper, as much of all of those layers that you need to make these computers on wheels? >> one of the nice things about battery is they are almost infinitely recyclable. so once we get the big groupu ot there. there is a whole industry around recycling the battery because the elements could be reused and reused.

so it is not as if we're pining these forever. we'll mine them until we get the critical mass out there and then recycle the heck out of them. >> and do you think that -- are there any dangers in terms of the supply chain, people worried about our access to minerals, a lot of african countries in many of those cases have signed almost exclusive deals with china, some of those things are in china itself. do you foresee any problems in getting access to all of this stuff? >> what the supply base, whether it is on the internal combustion engine or ev, covid knocked the supply base on its tail and we're still recovering from that. whether it is chips, whether it is something very prodayic and all of a sudden we do. on the mineral side, some are tough to get but they keep finding new sources too. and the new sources in this

country. the salt and sea out in the desert in california, turns out it has quite a bit of lithium that is ready to be mined. but, yeah, it is an issue. and then there is the human rights issue on the mining as well. we're trying to be very, very careful and mindful about the suppliers that we do business with. but some of it is, it is hard to have great vision into some of the sub supplier, sub suppliers but we're trying to because we don't want to do business like that and we won't. >> the world's biggest exporter of cars today is china. really remarkable. from no industry 15 years ago to doing better than japan this year. the next big phase of the electric vehicles i assume will be chinese evs because they have huge numbers there. >> yes. >> are you ready to compete with chinese evs in america?

>> probably not quite yet. we need to get ready. and we are getting ready. but you're right, i mean they're already going to europe and they're growing very fast in europe. they are -- and you mentioned the speed at which they developed. they develop very quickly. they've developed them in large scale and now they're exporting them. and they're not here, but they'll come here we think at some point. and we need to be ready. and we're getting ready. so, i mean, we have an all hands on deck -- we learned a lot. when i look back at when the japanese came to america, we weren't ready. then the koreans came and we really weren't ready. well guess, what it is going to happen again and we're going to be ready this time because we're acutely aware of not being ready will do for us. >> pleasure to have you on. >> thank you, fareed. we'll ask an important

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and now for the last look. it is been about a year since dobbs v jackson when the supreme court voted to revoke the constitutional protections for abortion in america. and in coming days, the court will weigh in on cases that will decide everything from the future of affirmative action in university admissions to the fate of president biden's student loan forgiveness plan, to the right of american businesses to deny services to lgbtq americans. i asked my next guest to put the court's prior term into perspective and tell us what we could skpexpect in the future.

mark waldman is from nyu and his new book is called "the super majority, how the supreme court divided america". >> you talk about the supreme court as a danger to american democracy these days. most people will have thought particularly if you go back 20, 30 years, that the court is sort of the savior of american democracy. what do you think has changed? >> i think we have to rethink and understand the role the court is playing right now. it is very unusual thing to have a supreme court with nine unelected justices with lifetime appointments making such big decisions every june. we only give it that kind of power because we trust it to be above politics, to act like a court. right now, the supreme court is controlled, is dominated by six very conservative justices, a

super majority and they've begun to make very, very radical and extreme and activist rulings that are remaking society in basic ways. it poses a threat i think to our notions of democracy. it is changing the country in ways people are only beginning to understand and i think it is going to lead to a pretty big backlash at the same time. >> what would you say to conservatives who say, well, look, you have the warren court making liberal big important decisions that were liberal, and why was that okay but it is not okay? >> there have been times in the country's history where we need the court to take steps to protect equal rights even when the political system isn't interested in. brown v. board of education is an example of that and it is the beginning of the warren court. but the warren court was the only time in the country's history where the court was activist and ahead of the country and it created its own

backlash, a political backlash that we're living with to this day. >> so what you're describing at this moment, it does seem to be accurate that the court is doing things that the public in general, majorities of the public are not comfortable with on abortion. even on guns which you've written a wonderful book about this the second amendment. most people don't realize that the second amendment did not prevent 200 years of gun regulation or maybe at least a hundred, suddenly going back to the 1850s. and that it was a series of decisions really starting with peller, scalia's opinion that completely transformed the legal landscape for guns, right? >> you're exactly right. it is sort of hard to imagine, but the supreme court never said the second amendment protects an individual right to gun ownership until 2008, that is

the heller decision. but it still leave room for gun laws even though it was seen as an individual right. and justice scalia was asked what is the difference between you and justice thomas and he said i'm an originalist, but i'm not a nut. justice thomas wrote the opinion, the brewing case, and that case, one of the really extraordinary decisions at the end of the last term in june of 2022, basically said you could not consider public safety when you're looking at whether a gun safety law is constitution. you can only look at history and tradition by which they mean some law from the colonial era or from the founding era. if they had that law then, then maybe we could have it now. and this is an unusual way to rule. >> and this originalism and original intent and you say in the book it is fundamentally

misconceived. explain why. >> it is miss conceived. it is pretty new. it wasn't until last year the supreme court said this is how we're going to make our big rulings. the only way to interpret the constitution is ask what did it mean at the time it was ratified to the founders. the court rules that the meaning of the constitution is, quote, fixed, in a very rural way what this means is that the social views, the moreays of property owning wight men from late 1700s or the 1800s has to govern us now and that is whatever the justices think they could find to bolster their argument. sometimes it is terrifying, in the dobbs case they actually cited in the opinion, justice alito, six times a judge named matthew hail who is a british judge who sentenced women to death in the witchcraft. in the 1500s, not last year. and the founders understood that they were creating a broad

charter for a growing country, a country that would change. we have changed. we've evolved. the constitution evolves with it and that doesn't mean it is a misunderstanding of the constitution, that is the only way to run a modern country. >> so when you look at where the court is now, and there is a kind of piptship on both sides now, each president is appointing reliably conservative or liberal judges. you think the solution is basically to remake the court and to put in, for example, term limits? >> i theyink one of the answerss to understand that the supreme court is an institution that could be rear formed and fixed just as the same as congress or the executive branch. i think nobody should hold too much public power for too long so that an 18-year term limit for justices could make sense. it is broadly popular with the country. i think that people are just now

starting to understand the supreme court as a political institution, needing some kind of reform. >> michael waldman, pleasure to have you on. >> thank you. and thank you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. not that into saving, are you? -whoa, dude... -money. cuz... cuz you paid too much for those glasses. next time, go to america's best where two pairs and d a free, quality eye exam ststart at just $79.95. book a an exam today at americasbest.com. ♪ arthritis pain? we say not today. tylenol 8 hour arthritis pain has two layers of relief. the first is ft, the second is longasting. we give you your day back, so you can give it everything. tynol. number one doctor recommended

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