this is "gps, the global

public square." welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you today from london. on the program, ukraine's counter offensive has officially begun. what do the early signs reveal and what exactly is at stake in? i'll ask an all of had star panel. also, the electric vehicle revolution. europe and china are far ahead of america. can the u.s. catch up? i'll talk to bill ford the executive chair of the ford motor company. ♪ >> finally, the supreme court. it's supposed to be the final check, the ultimate safeguard to preserve america's bedrock values, but is it now itself a

danger to democracy? a new book says just that. but first, here's my take. if you were surprised by saudi arabia's de facto takeover of professional golf, get ready for many more such announcements in the months and years to come. the rise of the gulf and particularly saudi arabia is already reshaping the middle east, but it will also have powerful consequences across the world. a quick quiz. what was the world's fastest-growing large economy last year? if you guessed india or china or any of the asian tigers you're wrong, the answer is of course, saudi arabia which clocked in at 8.7%. kuwait and the united arab emirates registered heady growth, as well. what explains the boom? well, despite what many hoped for, the world continues to be heavily dependent on fossil fuels.

the u rkraine war and sanctions against russia has oil and gas markets, in addition, two of the world's other major oil-producing countries, iran and venezuela are also under sanctions and have oil and dekag infrastructure. america produces lots of oil and gas, but still imports large quantities. as a result, the world is now utterly reliant on a handful of countries in the persian gulf as steady and reliable suppliers of oil and gas. these conditions will likely continue over the next decade and if they do, the gulf will see one of the largest inflows of wealth in history. already the four main sovereign wealth fund of these countries have reportedly accumulated almost $3 trillion in assets and an increase of 42% over the past two years. saudi arabia expects that its main investment vehicle, the public investment fund will have

more than $2 trillion by 2030, making it the world's largest. for the foreseeable future these will be the most significant pools of capital on the planet. the economic consequences of this wealth are all around us. saudi arabia has, in effect bought the professional golf business. the kingdom sought to bring the formula 1 franchise at $30 billion and cristiano ronald onto play for one of its teams for a reported $200 million a year. it is making huge investments in the online gaming industry hoping to become a major player in that space. look around it. prestigious sports teams, luxury hotels in europe and storied brands and you might see golf arab owners. as one golf minister said to me, we've built lots of

infrastructure in our countries, what's coming in now is cash to invest. this surge of wealth has reshaped the middle east. the once-dominant large and historically significant players in the region, egypt, iraq, syria off of various reasons for poverty, division and dysfunction unable to play leading roles. the gulf is where the action is. saudi arabia in particular has made a huge, strategic shift in its foreign policy. it has only years in power, the kingdom's de facto ruler, crown prince muhammad bin salman used his country's wealth in a rude and overbearing way and he tried in various ways to pressure or topple the regimes in qatar, lebanon and jordan while waging a hot war in yemen and a cold war with iran, none of which bore any fruit. the 2018 murder of jamal khashoggi also occurred this period. in the last few years, by contrast, he appears to have

matured, mending ties with qatar and jordan and re-establishing diplomatic relations with iran and actively seeking a peace deal in yemen. the gulf states are all deepening their relations with china which is now the region's largest customer. in 2001 saudi arabia's trade was one-tenth of its trade with the west. in 2021 it was about $87 billion, more than the u.s. and the eu combined. economic ties are growing rapidly and "the washington post" even reports that china has continued construction on the suspected military facility in the uae. saudi arabia and the gulf are not seeking a divorce with the united states. they want close economic ties with china and close security ties with america. they want to be able to deal freely with everyone including russia. if you want to see where

russians have gone to escape western sanctions, visit dubai where you will hear more russian than arabic at some hotels. they have growing ties with india and are even building new links with israel. most countries would like to pursue a policy that allows them to freelance, choosing in the west and east as suits their interest. if mbs continues down the path that he's on now, saudi arabia for sure will be likely to manage this balancing act. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington post column this week and let's get started. ♪ ♪ >> last weekend, the world got its first official indication that the much-discussed, much-anticipated ukrainian counteroffensive had actually begun. when president zelenskyy at a

press conference alongside canadian p.m. trudeau talked about counteroffensive actions that were taking place. so how big are the stakes here and what can we expect from the ukrainian forces? can they take back their territories? joining me now are anne applebaum and alyssa lucevich and a staff writer for "the atlantic." ariza is the head of the forum at chatham house. and you say that the purpose, the real purpose behind this ukrainian counteroffensive or the larger purpose is not -- [ no audio ] >> the counter offense sif to create a political change in russia by which i don't mean regime change. there has to be a moment when the russians decide that the war is not worth fighting anymore and they take their troops and leave. it's the kind of decision that the french made in 1962 when they decided to pull out of

algeria. the british made that decisions a number of times. in their empire, there is a moment when their empire ends and the ukrainians will use both military tactics as well as political tactics to convince the russians to leave. the war is over when the russian goes home. ukrainians don't have to occupy moscow and they don't have to get anybody to surrender. all they need to do is get them to leave and so what you will see over the next few weeks is both the kinds of shaping operations we see now and attempts to cut off railway links and you might see bigger military moves and you will also see more events like the small group of russians who went over the border and free russian forces calling themselves and you'll see drones, moscow in other russian cities and that's also part of persuading the russians to go home. >> i think that's a very good way to think about it and i think the analogy of france and algeria which is the french tried and tried and after some

point they realized killing 1 million algerians that the algerians were going to get their independence. >> and they just weren't french. it wasn't going to be part of an empire and ukrainians at some point need to convince russians that they're not russians. they will not murder lots of them in order to persuade them to become russian isn't going to work. >> it seems right now it's these shaping operations as anne was saying. do we have a sense as to whether there are a lot of military analysts who say the thing to do is to put pressure the southeast so that you start threatening crimea. is that what would make the russians, in your view, you know, feel like, okay, this is getting very dangerous. the stakes are now very high. >> ukrainians remain very resolute to keep fighting and nobody wants to give territory to crimea. we're seeing society achieve

collapse of the russian fronts. i don't think russians will be willing to pack and go. they really have to be defeated and the leadership and political elite will have to understand that this is just costing too much, and what we're seeing right now even with president zelenskyy announced is the start of the counteroffensive, the main battlefield battalions are prepared with over 40,000 men, they have not deployed yet. they are still in the home front in the bases gearing up. russians are really nervous because the ukrainians have the abilities now that russians don't. >> and when you -- when we think about this on a broader level, the ukrainians have been amazing in their bravery and they've been incredibly good fighters and their skill is amazing, but i think all of us do think in the back our mines russia is so big. it has so many people. putin could call up another

organization. the military budget before obviously western aid which changes the whole thing, but with the russian budget was ten times the ukrainian budget. do the russians have more to put them through the meat grinder and just keep going? >> one of the things the ukrainians are trying to get them to do is that that won't happen and there is also diplomacy about that. why is the u.s. giving ukraine f-16s which has just been announced and why did the germans decide to give ukraine tanks? of course, there are military reasons for that, but they're also signs to russia that we aren't going to stop. in other words, you can keep your war going and we will also keep the war going. so the u.s. and europe have both been sending signals saying that they, too, are prepared for a long conflict. yeah, there is a psychological competition going on where the russians say we'll stay here forever and the west is saying.

>> so will we -- >> so will we. that's the thing to watch is that kind of psychological battle. >> you mentioned crimea particularly. you know lots of people outside from elon musk to at various points and various european statesmen have said, look, crimea should go back to russia or that the russian possession is appropriate given that was originally russian and khrushchev gave it to ukraine in 1954. you're saying ukrainians will not accept that idea. >> well, first of all, putin made one of the largest strategic mistakes by annexing more ukrainian territory in september of last year and he annexed illegally on paper, actually, four ukrainian regions which equalizes them to crimea. crimea is not special anymore, and it belongs to ukraine as

zaporizhzhia or donetsk. of course, there's concern about escalation over the military in crimea, but has at ready start, the black sea is very much a pat of the war. the snake island and the attack on the bridge. in a way, this war in 2014 started with crimea and this war must end with crimea being resolved. >> stay with us. next on "gps," president putin on friday said russia has started transferring tactical nuclear weapons to belarus. ukraine's neighbor to the north. he also made yet another threat to use nukes saying he would do it if there was a threat to russia's existence. we'll discuss in a moment. smart. like a smart coffee grinder - that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that... ...i need a breakthrough card... like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more...

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orysia lutsevych. what do you make of putin and the issue? >> it's a very serious issue because i don't think we've faced a war like this where they annexed the country and gave up nuclear weapons and where other p-5 members guaranteed uskrainin territory and sovereignty. we state that nuclear blackmail is not working, but the west, washington and other capitals were self-deterring in mroiding that much-needed military assistance to ukraine. that is why ukrainians are paying very high price for maintaining that front line almost like clenching their teeth waiting for the time when the west will understand that honestly, russian troops must be defeated on ukrainian territory and this is where putin has the upper hand with the nuclear saber rattling that he keeps

using from the day one of this war. it's a serious issue. >> anne, you've re-written this cover story on oil for "the atlantic" and before that you spent some time with zelenskyy. is it your sense that he is now -- i mean, he has rallied the world extraordinarily. is he now directing military operations? is that being done by the general in charge? you know, how should we think about this? who is going to run this counteroffensive? >> so he's said from the beginning that he's not a military commander, and as far as i know he doesn't try to preempt that role, but there are political considerations to any military offensive, how it should be conducted and what its purpose be, you know, what role, for example, do those free russian forces play. what role does belarus play, and i think he has a large role in that. so you know, because it's both the military and the political project, i think he's got a

role. >> what was your sense of, you know, his mood, the circle around him, decision making? >> they're very self-confident now. it's funny, i saw him right at the beginning of the war. we went in april 2022 right after the russians had left kyiv and then we went back essentially a year later and it was a very transformed experience. he's surrounded by much more professional people. there isn't this sense of emergency. they are -- they seem much more in control of their -- their economic ideas and their contact with the world. it's a -- it's sort of more, it doesn't feel like an emergency that everything's about to fall apart at any minute, so he's changed in that way. i think fundamentally, he hasn't changed, though if that he still has an emotional belief in the -- that the ukrainians can win, that if he's able to galvanize them and galvanize ukraine's partners that they can work together and he's still

very good at linking ukraine and its trauma to the greater problems around the world. they've made a big effort to get african, latin american politicians and journalists to kyiv. they understand their position in the world and they're still doing the same kind of outreach they've been doing since the beginning of the war. >> i was in kyiv a few weeks ago, and it was quite interesting and the office of the president and meeting his team. it felt very special that the core of the ukrainian state has been preserved, that it's functional and it has a vision. a vision for ukraine's role in the architecture of security and the vision of the whole world how we in the future avoid the similar aggression, and also it was right after the hiroshima summit and it was the place where really ukraine plays global -- ukraine is leading on a global conversation and not just the conversation within europe and not just the trans atlantic community, and i think that it's something that this war actually allowed ukraine to

come into the forefront of really global conversation. >> you are just back from ukraine and you have this terrific report for chatham house in which you talk about it seems to me this very important issue which is the rebuilding of ukraine. you don't mean just the economic rebuilding, but the democratic rebuilding where ukraine was famously very corrupt and dysfunctional. do you think that that is, you know, that people are energized about that? because right now, in effect, ukraine is under martial law because they have to fight this war, but is there a determination to make sure that it reforms and democratizes fully and all that? >> absolutely. i met a lot of representatives from civil society where i ask people what is the main, added value of this recovery and they say it's about modernization of

intugzs and ukraine themselves are mature to understand that if it's well organized and there's good oversight and good participation of witnesses and communities, this transformative process for ukraine will allow european integration to move faster and it will allow rule of law to progress and it will allow ukraine to build trust. ukrainians are very hopeful. they even under all those circumstances see bright future for the country as part of european union. >> on that hope, thank you both. it was terrific. next on "gps," the global race for the next big car market which is electric vehicles. i will talk to bill ford, the executive chairman of the ford motor company about how the u.s. can keep up with the european union and china. . hungry? thank you, chef. control for parents. nice. one bank for both. chase. make more of what's yours.

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president biden said last year's act represented the clean merge and american manufacturing in history. it's easy to dismiss such rhetoric as political bluster, but his predictions about the ira may actually come true. companies have announced billions of dollars of investment and factories for solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and the batteries made in those plants can power as many as 13 million electric vehicles for a year. i wanted to talk about it with bill ford, executive chair of the ford motor company and the great grandson of the company's founder henry ford. the elder ford, of course, changed american manufacturing forever over a century ago by literally inventing the assembly line. >> bill ford, pleasure to have you on. >> thank you, fareed. it's great to be here. >> so let me ask you, a lot of people are looking at joe

biden's ira, the inflation reduction act, which really is a series of tax credits, subsidies, incentives for a transition to a green economy and they say this is going to be mammoth. this is going to be one of the sea changes in america and american industry and the tip of the sphere is the electric vehicle revolution. so for you from your vantage point and is that characterization accurate? >> yeah. we need. the rest of the world is moving faster than we are. china has move at light speed towards electrification and europe has moved much faster than we have, so it's inevitable. it's coming and frankly, it should come, but the important thing, though, and this is where the ira really is very helpful is to help establish a manufacturing base in america.

right now the technology largely is outside of america and a lot of it's being imported, but we feel it's really important and the administration does, as well, to build an american supply base as we transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles. >> but talk to me about that local supply base because you've gotten into a little trouble with some senators like marco rubio because you're building a battery facility in michigan, but in order to do it, but in order to use the most cutting-edge technology you're partnering with the chinese company and inevitably there has to be some of this kind of partnering. there will be our employees and all we're doing is licensing the technology. that's it. and actually it's exactly what the ira was set up to do because we're localizing production in america and our engineers will be working with that technology

integrated into our vehicles and we will learn that technology. we'll understand how in this case, catl not only makes the batteries, but also prepares them to be integrated into the vehicle. that's really important that our engineers gain that knowledge so we can eventually do it ourselves. >> when you hear people talk about the men -- the building america part of it, there are many people, economists who criticizeded it saying, look, what you will end up doing is you will massively raise costs if everything has to be manufactured in america, you're not taking advantage of global supply chains and global manufacturing and the fact that you can source things from all over the world in order to make something and the famous example is that if the iphone was made in america, everything was made in america it would cost four times as much, i think, is the estimate, as it does now. what do you say about that?

>> i say making things in america matters. if we outsource it all we're not going to have much, and the manufacturing job is much greater than any other part of the economy. other countries know there and that's why they're so anxious to get the auto jobs in their countries. >> but when you look at this cost issue is this part of what's going on with the evs with the electric vehicle because you lose money, even though you're making a lot you lose money. >> we do. it's like all technology, once you go down the cost curve and climbing up the production curve the costs will come down and they're coming down even as we're sitting here and with each generation the batteries will get smaller and smaller and momore efficient and you can look at anything, and in the early days things were more expensive and

once technology ramped up the costs came down quite dramatically and we see that happening here, too. >> when you look at the future of the american economy right now with all of this transition taking place, with the inf infrastructure bill which is the largest in at least 20, 25 years, how do you feel about the american economy? >> well, i think there's a lot we can be happy with, but you know, we have, i think, too much debt as a country. yes, we just raised the debt ceiling and we're kicking the can down the road, and i think we -- you know, and china owns a lot of our debt which is worrisome, i think, from the national security standpoint, but i think a lot of good things also have been done. are we headed into a recession? i don't know, my crystal ball is pretty cloud owe that one. >> next up, how does ford plan to keep up with the stiff

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♪ go to your happy price ♪ ♪ priceline ♪ kill it to save it, that's the mandate facing many automakers who have made their names and fortunes on gas-guzzling vehicles and are now trying to pivot to electric. how is that transition working out at ford? more of my interview with bill ford, executive chair of the ford motor company. how difficult is it to change the culture of your whole manufacturing process which has really been an industrial process whereas an electric car is basically software on wheels. >> right. >> tesla does seem to have an advantage in that it's a technology company that happens to make cars whereas you're a car company that is trying to move up the technology value chain. >> it's a mirror to both.

tesla has found that making the car part isn't as much fun as maybe i thought it was. it's difficult and you're right, we're trying to catch them now on the technology side, but i think one of the things for sure is that not everybody is ready for evs and that's fine. we have a whole incredibly attractive portfolio of internal c combustion and we'll have those vehicles for quite some time and one of the questions i'm frequently asked is how quickly is this going to happen and what is the adoption rate and the short answer is we don't really know. so we have a wonderful portfolio of vehicles which we're continuing to invest in. i was in kentucky last week where we just launched the new super duty which is the backbone and that's an internal combustion vehicle. that vehicle doesn't lend itself today to electrification. now, as batteries get bigger, stronger and more energy dense, will it some day? yes, probably, but we're not

there yet. so i think for some segments, yes. gasoline will still be needed. so it's important that we have a mix of vehicles, and if this thing all breaks much faster than what i just described we'll be ready. >> if things -- if ev adoption moves faster than people expect and even at the same pace, there are many concerns about the supply chain there. do we actually have the capacity to get as much lithium, as much copper, as much -- of all those that you need to make these computers on wheels? >> one of the nice things about battery is they are almost infinitely recyclable. so once we get the initial sort of big group out there, there's going to be a whole industry around recycling the battery because all of those elements that you mentioned can be reused and reused and reused. so it's not as if we'll have to be mining these forever.

we'll have to mine them until we get a critical mass out there and then we'll just recycle the heck out of them and do you think that that -- are there any dangers in terms of the supply chain and people worry about our access to minerals. a lot of them are in african countries and in many of those countries, they've signed almost exclusive deals with china. do you foresee any problems in getting access to stuff. the supply base whether it's the internal combustion engine or on the ev level there are issues all through the supply base globally. it being comboed the supply base on its tale and we're still recovering from that, whether it's chips and something prozaic, and we never thought we'd have a problem with and i'm not saying we do. on the mineral side, some of them are tough tore gettougher get than others and the salton

sea in the desert in california. it turns out that's got quite a bit of lithium that's ready to be mined, but yeah, it is an issue and of course, there's the human rights issue on the mine, as well. we are trying to be very, very careful and mindful about the suppliers that we do business with, but some of it is it's hard to have great vision into some of the -- or sub-suppliers, sub suppliers, but we're trying to, because again, we don't want to do business like that and we won't. >> the world's biggest exporter of cars today is china. really remarkable, it's gone from essentially having no industry 15 years ago to doing better than japan this year. the next big phase of electric vehicles, i assume will be chinese evs because they have huge numbers there, are you ready to compete with chinese

evs in america? >> probably not quite yet, but you're right. they're going to europe and they're growing very fast in europe. they are -- and you mentioned the speed at which they developed. they developed very quickly. they developed them in large scale and now they're exporting them and they're not here, but they'll come here, we think at some point, and we need to be ready and we're getting red. so we have an all-hands on deck -- we learned a lot. when i look back at when the japanese came to america we weren't ready and then the koreans came and we really weren't ready. well, guess what? it's going to happen again and we are getting ready and because we know what not being ready will do for us. >> bill ford, up this. as the supreme court issues landmark end of term decisions we'll ask an important question, is the court today acting as a

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>> and now for the last word, it's been about a year when dobbs v. jackson when the s supreme court voted to revoke in america, and they will decide everything from the future of affirmative action in university admissions to the fate of president biden's student loan forgiveness plan to the right of american businesses to deny services to lgbtq americans. i asked my next guest to put the prior term into perspective and what we can expect in the future. his new book is called the super

majority, how the supreme court divided america. michael waldman, pleasure to have you on. you talk about the supreme court as a danger to american democracy these days. most people would have thought, particularly if you go back 20, 30 years that the court is sort of the savior of american democracy, what do you think has changed? >> i think we have to re-think and understand the role the court is playing right you in. it's a very unelected justices with lifetime appointments making such big decisions every june. we only give it that kind of power because we trust it to be above politics, to act like a court. right now, the supreme court is controlled, is dominated by six very conservative justices, a super majority, and they've begun to make very, very

radical, extreme and activist rulings that are remaking society in basic ways. it poses a threat, i think, to our notions of democracy. it's changing the country in ways people are only beginning to understand, and i think it's going to lead to a pretty big backlash at the same time. >> what would you say to conservatives who say, well, look, you had the warren court making liberal big, important decisions that were liberal. and why was that okay, but this is not okay? >> there have been times in the country's history where we need the court to take steps to protect equal rights, even when the political system isn't interested in it. brown v. board of education is certainly a classic example of that. and that was the beginning of the warren court. but the warren court was the only time in the country's history where the court was very activist, but actually kind of ahead of the country and it created its own backlash, a political backlash, that we're living with to this day. >> so, you know, what you're

describing at this moment, it does seem to be accurate that the court is doing things that the public in general, majorities of the public, are not comfortable with on abortion even on guns, you've written a wonderful book about the second amendment. most people don't realize that the second amendment did not prevent 200 years of gun regulation or at least 100, certainly going back to the 1850s and that it was a series of decisions really starting with heller, scalia's opinion, that completely transformed the legal landscape for guns. >> you're exactly right. it's sort of hard to imagine, but the supreme court never said the second amendment protects an individual right to gun ownership until 2008. that was the heller decision. but it still left room for gun

laws, even though it was seen as an individual right. and justice scalia was asked, what's the difference between you and justice thomas? he said, i'm an originalist, but not a nut. justice thomas wrote the opinion more recently, the bruin case and that case, one of the really extraordinary decisions at the end of the last term in june of 2022 basically said, you cannot consider public safety when you're looking at whether a gun safety law is constitutional. you can only look at history and tradition by which they mean, some law from the colonial era, or from the founding era. if they had that law then, then maybe we can have it now. this is a very unusual way to rule. >> and at the heart of all of this is this idea of originalism, original intent. and you say in the book that it's fundamentally misconceived. explain why. >> it's misconceived. it's really pretty new. it wasn't until last year that the supreme court really started

saying, this is how we're going to make all of our big rulings. it's the idea that the only legitimate way to interrupt the constitution is to ask, what did it mean at the time it was ratified to the founders. the court ruled that the meaning of the constitution is, quote, fixed. in a very literally way, what this means is that the social views, the social moraes of property-owning white men from the late 1700s, or maybe the 1800s, has to govern us now, and that's basically whatever the justices think they can fine to bolster their argument. sometimes, it's terrifying, in the dobbs case, they actually cited in the opinion, justice alito, six times a judge named matthew hale, who is a british judge who sentenced women to death for whitchcraft, in the 1500s, not last year, and they understand, the founders understood that they were creating kind of a broad charter for a growing country, a country that would change.

we have changed, we've evolved. the constitution evolves with it. that doesn't mean it's a misunderstanding of the constitution, that's the only way to run a modern country. >> so when you look at where the court is now. and there's a kind of partisanship on both sides now. each president is appointing reliably conservative or liberal judges. you think the solution is basically to remake the court and to put in, for example, term limits. >> i think one of the answers is to understand that the supreme court is an institution that can be reformed, that can be fixed, just the same as congress or the executive branch. i think, for example, that nobody should hold too much public power for too long, so an 18-year term limit for justices would make sense. it's actually broadly popular with the country. i think that people are just now starting to understand the supreme court as a political institution needing some kind of

reform. >> michael walden, pleasure to have you on. >> thank you. >> and thank you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. don't forget, if you miss a show, go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my itunes podcast. smart bankers. convenient tools. boom. one bank with the power of both. chase. make more of what's yours. my most important kitchen tool? my brain. so i choose neuriva plus. unlike some others, neuriva plus is a multitasker supporting 6 key indicators of brain health. to help keep me sharp. neuriva: think bigger. moderate-to-severe eczema. it doesn't care if it's

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