we're back live in the cnn newsroom. i'm jim acosta. it is 5:00 a.m. in moscow. a new day of questions and uncertainty lies ahead for russia. russian mercenaries suddenly abandoned their insurrection and possible coup attempt on

vladimir putin in a surprisingly quick advance on moscow. the wagner group claimed to seize control of an important russian military facility in the city of rostov-on-don. [ applause ] >> the leader of the wagner group says they captured the facility, a key operations base, for the war on ukraine without firing a single shot. the cheers you just heard are locals showing their support ahead of wagner. yevgeny prigozhin also claimed to seize a military facility in another city about halfway to moscow. that's when prigozhin said he ordered his mercenaries to suddenly turn around. this is video of them pulling out of one town. and here's prigozhin receiving a hero's farewell as he leaves. he said he did it to avoid a bloody conflict.

>> translator: therefore realizing all the responsibility for the fact that russian blood will be shed from one of the sides, we turn our columns around and leave in the opposite direction to the field camps according to the plan. >> we're following all the latest developments. let's begin with nic robertson. nic, help us make sense of this extraordinary day in russia. that may be understating things. and what it might mean in the days ahead. the cheers we just played, those were for wagner. not vladimir putin. what a wild day. >> what a wild day. from beginning to end. when i heard the cheers, i asked myself, are they cheering prigozhin for prigozhin because they think he's great or because he left their town and avoided a potential massive bloodshed if the military has gone in to get him. it does seem on the face of what we're seeing that it is support

for prigozhin. perhaps this is what putin was worried about. he does seem to be out of touch. the conventional wisdom has been that putin is the guy that can pull all the strings, that has good strategic oversight. but this was a situation he let get out of control. it is not clear how much control he still has. is his defense minister shoigu still in place? because prigozhin demanded that he be forced out. that prigozhin's troops didn't have to sign up and become part of russia's main forces under everything issi shoigu? where is he? in belarus? is he going to be under house arrest? forced not to speak on tv? not to criticize putin? none of this is clear. that view and that understanding and the conventional wisdom that putin was the center of all power, that has evaporated on

this extraordinary day. >> right. and the kremlin said this case against prigozhin will be dropped and that prigozhin will be allowed to go to belarus. i have to ask you, it seems odd to me that vladimir putin, knowing everything that we've known about vladimir putin the last 23 years he's been in power, would just allow prigozhin to head off to belarus and that would be that. i can't imagine that is the end of the story. >> it doesn't add up. it doesn't pass the basic sniff test. putin likes loyalty. he hates people who are disloyal. and by his own admission today, prigozhin and putin was forced into this opinion, prigozhin's actions according to putin were treasonous. the ultimate failure of the loyalty test. how can prigozhin begin to believe he is safe?

how did a weak leader prompted up by putin bail him out of the potential problem? it doesn't pass the basic sniff test. >> right. and let's talk about what might be happening next for prigozhin in belarus. we simply have no visibility on that. and the kremlin, if i've not mistaken, was saying we don't really have a firm handle on prigozhin's whereabouts. and there was something cryptic that prigozhin said at the end of that audio message where em, this is all happening, quote, according to the plan. according to what plan? i don't know what that means either. this is all sounding like a russian spy novel. >> because the best assessment has been that prigozhin went off his own script and found himself having to back down from a situation where he wasn't going to win. in what russia can a military force that is taking on the

government, taking on the army to drive half the way to russia. how come they weren't stopped? we saw a couple of situations on the main highway where there were a couple of trucks parked. they have been forced out of the way. what is bizarre is the conventional wisdom in russia is that the russian leader, putin, is respected by the people of russia and they tolerate whatever he does because he is powerful. he controls the situation. and he keeps them safe. that has been rewritten today. and as part of that rewrite, where does prigozhin stand? is he able to mount another angry aggression against the defense minister? the defense minister's deputy, gerasimov?

again, we don't know the details. it doesn't make sense. >> no. and the scenes were almost from something that you would see out of a regime change except there was no regime change. a very puzzling situation. nic robertson, thank you. i know it has been a very long night for you. thank you. the actions of yevgeny prigozhin and his mercenaries have been the biggest threat to vladimir putin's grim on power in two decades. what does this mean going forward? i'm joined by a former u.s. defense aattache to russia, and the former deputy director of national intelligence and cnn analyst. it's been a little while since you and i have spoken. we you'd to so that a regular basis about what's going on in ukraine. the common denominating on is vladimir putin. and what is going on with vladimir putin? not that long ago such naked

aggression against moscow would have been inconceivable. in the past few weeks we've seen drone attacks on the kremlin. people are still scratching their heads on that one. and then what we saw today. and there are people cheering in the streets for somebody like prigozhin. it just seems you would never expect to see that in putin's russia. >> jim, thank you for having me back. two things. there are two things going on in this overall russia/ukraine war. one is the viability, the survival, the existence of the free-minded ukrainian state of its own sovereignty. and that looks like it will happen. the other existential fight that is going on, has been going on, is inside the kremlin and the viability of the putin jerome. which today, i think, it may take some time, has suffered a

mortal blow. in the most unlikely of ways, though yevgeny prigozhin and wagner, he's been talking and speaking, i don't think anybody could have imagined this would happen. what he has done is he has divided the russians. he's got them squabbling publicly. if you're a russian citizen, you say what the heck is going on with our leadership? or a soldier? where you see the wagner group is fighting with the military. no. this may take time but this is a mortal bl to putin and his regime. >> beth, is that how you see it? what does putin do now? does he get desperate or sort of sit back and assess the scene now that he has supposedly gotten prigozhin out of the way and off to belarus, we should

underline what we were reporting earlier this evening. even the kremlin was saying, we don't exactly know where he is. that's one of the many puzzling things. >> yes. it has been an incredible day, no doubt about that. where the kremlin is rate now. if you look at the statement, he makes this statement about this is all wrapped up in a bow. we're done. and he's asked, is putin going to talk again, and he says no. he won't make any more comments. so this set to me, la la la, never mind, i'm trying to put this genie back in the bottle and prigozhin is pretty big to stuff back in the bottle and i don't think it is possible. we've seen a lot of myths shattered over the last, you know, 48 hours.

and there are no way to put it back together again. i think this could take quite some time. it's not the end of the story but we don't know how long this book is. >> and what do the events of the past 24 hours say about the russian military itself? and how the wagner group forces were able to have this march to moscow as prigozhin was calling it? and make it within a couple of hundred kilometers of the russian capital? that is just wild. that's just an extraordinary thing. >> and the word is wild. it's extraordinary. the fact that we heard about the wagners leaving bakhmut and farther into eastern ukraine, and then all of a sudden, they make their move.

they take rostov which is a significant regional capital where the headquarters of the russian southern military district, which directs the fighting mostly in the south and crimea and the black sea, and then turns around with this force and presses to voronezh, after way to moscow. an important regional capital that is full of logistics. and you're getting at what you just saw. what we all saw. these russians, they're russians. however rough humans they are. and we were seeing footage. they were kind of bemused. others were completely open and others treated these wagnerites as rock stars. extraordinary. and the narrative is getting out

now to the main stream population again that this invasion of ukraine. it was wrong, it was a lie, and all of this is spilling out into the russian heartland. the information that russia's putin's body guards lied. >> the other thing extraordinary about this day, prigozhin was poking holes in the russian propaganda-fueled narrative as to why they were in ukraine. he was saying that the oligarchs and the military leaders were cashing in on the bloodshed of ukraine. then he does this.

as general zwack saying this, that they were cheering on the streets, it is amazing that those images were allowed out of the country and people were able to do this sort of thing. i don't want to overstate things but that also suggests, all of those suggest that putin's grip is slipping. >> yes and potentially no. it depends. rostov-on-don still had prigozhin controlling that city. people put masks over their faces in some cases when they were doing that. we may see putin now. what will be his reaction? we could see putin tunnelling down as a reaction to this.

also whatever he can bring in ukraine and double down there and show that he is in control. he has been humiliated. he has been shown to be not in control. so what does a strong person do to try to reascertain that? so i don't know how long that lasts or what it looks like. i think that putin will not just stand there and allow all of this to flourish and blossom. >> that's an important point. to the that point does that mean that putin has to focus on solidifying things in russia at the spent of conducting what he's doing in ukraine? >> yeah, the word is that this is bigger than a distraction. this is a deadly serious and the

sbeernls and the narrative of russia. the mental band width of the leaders in russia and elsewhere, let alone the military, the fallout, and an ugly war that is now increasingly being reinforced to the public. yes, now imagine you are a mid level russian officer and you're completely tuned in to all this. what is going on in moscow? what is going on in my country? and the young russian on the line oh, by the way, the wagner group is out. they're still dealing with a fight with the ukrainians who have got to be absolutely heartened by this. and going to come at them even harder.

where is the tipping point? it's been a tough fight. where is the will to fate among the russians with all this messaging. there's a lot going on. i think the ukrainians are looking for that scene and will capitalize it probably with a message to a lot of the russian rank and file. go home. surrender. put up your arms. we're coming. and we're going to come through and fight. you don't have to do this, russians. so this is i think a really serious fate for the russian rank and file who for anything, the only thing they're fighting for right now in ukraine is for their own lives. they don't believe in the cause or the narrative anymore if they ever did. >> it could be a huge turning point indeed. thanks so much.

coming up, ukrainian president zelenskyy. if you think you, a child in your care,

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shelves smart enough to see, sense, react, restock. ♪ so caramel swirl is always there for the taking. the subway series? it's the perfect menu lineup. just give us a number, we got the rest. number three? the monster. six? the boss. fifteen? titan turkey. number one? the philly. oh, yeah, you probably don't want that one. look, i'm not in charge of naming the subs. no question about it. we all observed a stunning course of events in russia today. u.s. officials had pick up on clues that yevgeny prigozhin was

planning to move against russia's military but no one was prepared for the speed at which those events unfolded and then ultimately fizzled. so what happens next? writing about the russian economy, and jeffrey, welcome. appreciate your time. this afternoon you tweeted, don't be fooled by the prigozhin-putin deal. the emperor is now naked. you wrote a piece on putin critics. tell me why you think putin's armor has been pierced. >> thanks a lot. i should mention the other putin critics that you mentioned are the renowned bill browder, one. longest standing putin critics and putting his money behind his mouth quite courageously as well as the ambassador to russia. these are great experts and my expertise is on leadership. what we see here is this is a leader who has been in power.

he has fortified himself by fear, coercion, a sense of structure. and intel. all that is broken down. he's caught by surprise. his intel is not there. he doesn't have the coercion. a perfect case study of contrasting styles. you look at putin putin. he rules by the sense of trust with his. it is extraordinary. what that means now is he has threats. this is back to putin. threats inside and outside. on the outside, it is all over the ma'am. from china to chechnya. he has allies that are now worried about how much they can anchor on him. of course, messaging to ukraine and on the outside. but inside, it's total chaos. it is roving war lords.

not just wagner group. there are other groups out there. some more like neighborhood bullies but you see a breakdown of society which is unparalleled. >> does this make putin more dangerous, do you think? >> the thing that is really dangerous, go the late ash carter, we saw break downs in russia before. the old soviet union. the loose nuke danger. i don't want to be alarmist on that but in a strange way, that many in the u.s. government almost like a unified command for russia so we don't have worry about that. this is a great situation for ukraine to take advantage of the chaos and the confusion and the lack of solidarity. that is tremendous. and we also see that there is an eroding power base, let's say, in belarus. where there is a deposed

president put in prison. another one, his wife who had probably taken over and we see that prigozhin there is not legitimate. that's why putin had to go to someone on the outside to protect himself. he couldn't save himself with his own forces. his own forces melted and gave up this rostov-on-don. the people in the town cheered. they had never seen anybody tell putin -- >> it's remarkable to see. i was going to say. prigozhin is hardly a character worth admiring. he is a bloody butcher himself. and so why do you think he was able to make such a strong stand? did he just essentially catch putin with his pants down? >> well, obviously, it has been the incompetence of his version of his secretary of defense in

his version of a commander in chief of, in milley, and they have, their campaign has failed so much. these are the people who said they would take kyiv in three days. here we are a year and a half later and they're losing ground. not winning ground. and the massive casualties. prigozhin is hardly a sympathetic figure. not to be could not because theed with navalny. those people had the affection of the people and they were noble, heroic types. prigozhin, he is a butcher and a bully. what he did, of course, in aleppo and syria, he bombed aer qua of a million civilians. and his atrocities throughout africa. this is one vicious guy. he orders the sledge hammering of people who betray him. so this is not a nice guy. the old bit about the enemy of the enemy is our friend. well, this guy, nobody will call

prigozhin a friend. what we do see is he had the courage to say this is a war. this is a war that we're failing at. we being russia. and this is a war that should never have happened. and that message is getting out to the russian people in ways they never have before with perhaps only 4% of russians downloading through vpn to get the news. and any honest press that hasn't somehow lost their balance on a window sill or shut down, they have been picking it up through the vpn but now it is getting through with the telegraph messaging that-the telegram, rather. as you talked about with the general. putin is in very bad shape. we don't know how the wagner group can retreat. 25,000 heavily armed people possibly still in control of the command center of the war on ukraine. >> and that is why there are a

lot of folks asking, what we saw today is the end of this. and it may very well not. thank you so much for your time. that's all the time we have. we'll definitely have you back and continue this conversation. >> thank you for your great coverage. >> thank you very much. we appreciate it. and coming up, i'll be joined by a member of the house foreign affair committee to discuss what is happening in russia and how will congress respond. that's ahead. ahhhh... with flonase, allergies don't have to be scary spraying flonase daily gives you longng-lasting, non-drowsy relief. (psst psst) flonase. all good. (vo) with verizon, you can now get a private 5g network. so you can do more than connect your business, you can make it even smarter. now portcan know where every piece of cargo is. and where it's going. (dock worker) right on time. and order their own replacement parts.s can predict breakdowns (foreman) nice work. (vo) and retailers can get ahead of the fashion trend of the day with a new line tomorrow.

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despite the events of the last day, the u.s. says it has been seen a change in russia's nuclear posture. it is a sign that there is some stability in russia at least when it come to nuclear weapons. >> reporter: yes. it is really significant. u.s. official have long watched what president putin might do as the war in ukraine has continued on because he has engaged in nuclear sabre rattling throughout the course of the war. and the concern has been that any escalation on the battlefield where he feels cornered or putin feels threatened, he might actually engage in the use of those nuclear weapons to demonstrate

some show of power. and of course, the situation unfolding now has nothing to do with ukrainian aggressions toward russia. it has to do with internal divisions within russia's fighting force. but it is a situation where president putin is facing pressure. he is facing a situation where he could feel threatened, of course. so u.s. officials continue to watch this space closely. as we reported, right now, no changes to russia's nuclear posture at the moment. we should note that earlier this month, putin did say that he moved tactical nuclear weapons into belarus. so that is significant also, a space in this realm that u.s. officials continue to watch incredibly closely. the state department spokesperson confirming that there is been no change in russia's nuclear posture and saying that the u.s. has not made any changes to its conventional nuclear force

posture. >> thank you. we appreciate that. there's speculation of other consequences for the leader of the wagner military group. our next guest has had some choice words for the russian president. last year he slammed putin amidst talks of a potential ukrainian peace deal. >> when they're at the peace talks table, he's bombing hospitals. he's a dirt bag. that's all they're going to do, those kinds of things. >> here with us to discuss, the house foreign affairs member, tim, congressman, what is your reaction to this wild day in russia? >> wild is right, jim. thank you for having me on. putin is learning if you can't trust a bloodthirsty mercenary, who in the world can you trust? he's like his protege.

he gets, it was reminiscent, a little bit of hitler coming in on mother russia getting so close to moscow and then of course, they hit his price and he turned around and high-tailed it to belarus. you have to wonder though, he got so close without any military raising a hand at all, jim. so that tells me one of two things. either that the russians said in fact keep away from this guy or they were afraid to take him on. if you saw the pictures of him, people were getting selfies with him. he was getting rock star treatment. and i would say, if this guy were to take over, he's a blood

thirsty -- a no-down. it's very reminiscent to me of during the second world war, i study ad little of the history there. my father fought in it. my mama flew an airplane. but hitler, churchill could have taken him out toward the end but they figured he was doing such a terrible job, why take him out? leave him in there and, you know, the devil we don't know is what we're worried about. so there's a lot of moving parts here. it is a crazy, interesting day. >> i suppose with the committee you're on, the foreign affairs committee, there will be briefings on where putin's standings are now. does anyone in washington have any sense as to what the future holds? if there is no putin in charge in russia?

>> and i caution my colleagues. military intelligence to me is a whole lot like congressional ethics. i'm not sure it predicts. even with our incredible investment that putin would roll over ukraine. you remember the talks. it was in two weeks. they had no idea the ukrainian people would rally around zelenskyy and their country and defend their homeland. so it's a toss-up anyway. i think it is like the weather in washington with russia in this case. everybody sticks their head out the window and say, yeah, it's raining so predict rain. that's what the intelligence committee has been doing on this war. >> and do you think putin hits back harder at ukraine? what should the biden administration be thinking about? what should members of congress be thinking about? should ukraine try to take advantage of this opportunity? is this time for ukraine to push forward even more aggressively, if that's even possible for the

u.s. to send even more weapons to ukraine to take advantage of this moment? >> you would think they're weakened but the presumption, this wagner group, the mercenaries, the majority of them are heading back or still over there. so you know, i don't know that it weakened the military. i think morale wise, it sure as heck would. as you reported many times, what do the russian people know and what do the troops know? what are they being told? they don't have access to the media. they can't turn on cable tv and watch cnn like we can and find out what the heck is going on. it is kind of a toss-up. a brutal war. and it's wearing them down, i suspect. and i don't see how they can continue. it's gone on so long. it has to be stretching their finances very thin. i suspect that hurts back home.

>> you saw when they were rolling in. i thought it was a lack luster at best attempt of the folks trying to stop prigozhin from coming in in the wagner group. so who knows? >> let me ask you this. back in april, you and other conservative lawmakers sent a letter to president biden saying would you no longer support unrestrained american aid to ukraine. do you want to reconsider that? >> i don't, personally. it is our war. it is europe's war. i still think putin is a dirt bag and i wish he would be deposed and i wish somebody had a bigger heart for russia and their people and the ukrainians would take over. i still think it is a bad idea for us to be in that war. it has shades of vietnam. we're just ramping this thing up. >> don't you want to see the russians defeated? i mean -- >> absolutely.

>> but i don't know that we're going to do that. i think what we're going to do is fatten the war machine. fatten missile stocks, members of congress, and it goes down the line. and i've stated this many times. it's not normal for a him being to have a 70% on return on average. and i'm not just talking about former speaker pelosi. there are several. i'm sure they're on both sides of the aisle that will profit from this when we send our missile defense system over there. we have a rule to keep ours at a certain level of readiness. when we don't have them, we have to purchase them. so it is those multi-billion dollar contracts go to one or two contractors that we know that we have, the only people that have that technology. it is a pretty safe bet that your investments will go up. i just don't think it is a good idea for us to be in this war. put it into context. russia's gdp is between france and canada? they're not the super power they

once were, jim. and i worry, too, the signals -- >> you can't let, but you're not of the mindset that the russians should just be able to blow through ukraine and take over the country. you're not of that mindset. >> hell no. i think we should have looked at the economic and the oil situation first instead of completely capitulating to them. you remember the first couple months of the war, people didn't like it. in fact, we were funding both sides of that war with oil contracts. we still honored those contracts. so i feel like we've, we're talking out of both sides of our mouth on this thing. we never thfd anything to do with it. we should have provided economic pressure on russia. and gone with diplomacy first and led with bullets. i think we got the cart before the horse. i'm fiscally reserved.

we're $32 trillion in debt. so $114 billion unrestricted dollars to a country that is fairly corrupt to me is probably not a good investment. >> well, you know, of course, the ukrainians would take issue with a lot of that. let me ask but china and how they might be looking at all this. you said the chinese will make a move on taiwan. and after seeing putin's hold on power challenged today, do you think xi jinping is re-evaluating things? >> i think they're always playing chess and we're always playing checkers. the balloon that flew over this country, they just absorbed every bit of technology that we had to their infiltration, to our colleges and campuses, to our research institutes, buying

property around our military installations. they are multifaceted. the investment in oil rigs. they can monitor our ingress and egress on our eastern and our southern sea boards. there's just, they're just everywhere. so you know, they're watching us and watching how we react. they're watching mostly our political movement during all this and seeing what we're doing. it is just like with the balloon. i believe the most they got from that, they got a lot of technology burks they saw how we would react or not react. they saw our military, how it would not react in our white house. they're playing the long game. >> getting back to putin. i will ask you this. and i have to make this the final question. some in your party have elevated putin as sort of the strong man to look up to.

and i know, you called him a dirt bag and so on. do you think some in your party need to be reassessing that? vladimir putin as a strong leader? >> 100%. i wish he was on a fast trip to hell right now. he's caused nothing but suffering in this world and he is a very bad person. and i would never, i have encouraged my colleagues to be very cautious in that. i think it sends the wrong message. it sends the wrong message to our enemies and to our friends. he's still a dirt bag in my opinion and he'll never change. and thank you for having me on. >> congressman, thank you very much for your time. we appreciate it. we'll be right back. the chef's cooking up firsts with her newew debit card. hungry? -uhuh. the designer's eyeing sequins. uh no plaid. while mom is eyeing his spending. nice. and the engineer? she's taking control with her own account for college. three futures, all with chase.

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destabilization spread. the mercy area wagner group claimed to capture two russian cities and advance about want 20 miles to moscow before turning around. now another nation is involve. russia says prigozhin will not be prosecuted and will be exiled today to neighboring belarus. ivan watson joins me now. how far could the impact of today's events be felt? you're in hong kong there. we were talking to a congressman. a member of house foreign affairs committee. we were wondering, might china be watching this? xi jinping?

what's your sense of it? might it have that kind of impact? >> reporter: sure. china was watching. the chinese state media was covering what was happening there. and you had chinese propaganda trying to find a positive spin to a mautiny until abruptly turning around. that puts them in a difficult position. how do you make this look good when xi jinping right before the russian invasion of ukraine, and vladimir putin, signed a big agreement and declared themselves friendship with no limits? other countries that would be watching closely, iran, which is making defense deal with russia. it is iranian unmanned drones that are slamming into ukrainian cities night after night. on a global scale, people have to be concerned. russia has one of the largest nuclear arsenals in the world. when senior russian generals are

saying this is a coup attempt. when vladimir putin himself is saying, this could lead to something like the bolshevik revolution and civil war, people should think about what implication that could have. what could happen to the nuclear weapons. and closer, you have in the soviet union. while this was unfolding on saturday, vladimir putin took the time to call the leaders of uzbekistan and kazakhstan. two former republics that he still has agreements with. one of them said, this is an internal russian affair. why is that important? well, in january of last year, vladimir putin sent troops that? when he was facing his own bloody insurrection. it doesn't appear that the kazakhstan president is going to offer the same in return. one step further, he announced

he's going to have a meeting with the security council today, jim, and they are going to discuss measures to take to protect their country from any possible negative consequences of the instability in russia. all of what has happened in the former soviet union has worried former soviet republics that have been in russia's fear of influence and have led to moments where tens of thousands of russian men have fled the country with to escape the draft. none of it has made it look stronger over the past year and a half and the past 24 hours. >> no question about that. ivan watson, with a nice global view on things. we'll be right back.

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it was the biggest threat to vladimir putin's power head. the head of a russian mercenary group charging on moscow and suddenly calling it off. ben is following the developments this evening. >> reporter: jim, what a long,

strange trip it's been. and it started with yevgeny prigozhin claiming regions, and the southern military district, the strategic command center for much of russian forces in southern and eastern ukraine. for ukraine, it seemed like the enemy was turning upon itself. that the ripples of chaos in russia was coming on the line. they said this is the beginning of the collapse of russia, a civil war. president zalelzelinski said th was going n hiding.

he said that prigozhin was going to stop his march on moscow to return to face. and the offenses against the russian-occupied town. but when all is said and down, the sound and fury of prigozhin's insurrection came to naught. jim? >> thank you very much. still ahead, a new day in moscow after insurrection from the wagner group. what can happen next? that is ahead. you're live in the cnn newsroom. n that causes it! flonase headache and allergy y relief. psst! psst! all good! money stresses me out. so, i got this experian app, and now, i'm checking my fico® score. i got a new credit card, and m even finding ways to save. see all you can do with the free experian app. about money feels really good. download it now. trelegy for copd. ♪ birds flyin' high, you know how i feel. ♪

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