welcome back. you are live in the cnn newsroom. i'm jim acosta in washington. and russia, it's the day after. the day after the head of the wagner mercenary group called off his armed rebellion and advance on moscow the day of the military leadership in the handles of the war in ukraine, the day of wagner forces were almost uncharged as the columns marched towards moscow. it's the day after. locals were heard cheering for the mercenaries, and not for putin. they said they had captured

military facilities in two russian cities. the wagner chief yevgeny prigozhin said he wanted to spear sharing russian blood. >> translator: realizing all the responsibility that russian blood will be shed from one of the sides. we turn our columns around and leave in the of sirte direction to the field camps, according to the plan. >> did you ever think you would see this? here is prigozhin receiving a h hero's farewell as he leaves. the kremlin says he will not be prosecuted and he will be sent to belarus. what happens the day after? we are following all the developments. let's begin with nic robertson. this is a hell of a day after in

rus russia. before wagner turned aren't, he was called -- what happens next? what happens the day after? >> reporter: yeah, prigozhin's made a mockery out of putin's threats. prigozhin comes out looking like the real rough time. prigozhin is not looking like way the day after. and anyone who wants to have the day after, and thinking we're going to see all the dust settle and flig become clearer, i'm not reading that situation at the moment. there is no doubt that the deal that prigozhin has done, the deal with the belarusian leader, the idea that it can be the weak man propped up by putin, he supposedly has a great

relationship a 20-year relationship with prigozhin just doesn't pass muster. he wouldn't have done that if putin had ngt signed off in advance. so it's face-saving for putin. everyone seems to be getting thems themselves out of a jam. and what after the day after? they have themselves out of a jam and there is still a ways to go on the jam. >> nic, i have to think the day after and the day after and the day after, that will be on prigozhin's mind. how does he feel comfortable taking a sip of coffee or drinking his soup? i can't imagine he is going to be standing next to any open windows on high floors any time soon. >> reporter: he would be a fool if he did, right? putin hates people who betray him.

putin rewards loyalty. he doesn't reward the behavior. putin led it run to a crisis point. and where prigozhin would take 25,000 well trained troops on the road and threaten putin's own troops, that it had gotten to that point, that prigozhin still has the upper hand. this is a guy who likes the limelight. he came out of the shadows in full last year. he has made a huge amount of money being putin's go-to guy overseas in africa and other parts of the world. allowing putin to extend a military arm overseas and have a level of deniability. prigozhin has been a lot to putin. it's hard to see that putin's not going to need more of that in the future somehow, and prigozhin is willing to give all

flow of cash, the adulation. this is a guy who has thrived when people have more of him. that has to feel like an encouragement for prigozhin. whatever deal is done and whatever silence he has agreed to for a certain people in belarus. >> nick robertson, we really, really appreciate it. we'll talk to you soon. it has been an astonishing 24 hours. joining me to talk, steve hall, cnn national security analyst. steve, what do you think is happening right now at the kremlin or putin is right now? >> well, i mean, i think -- my guess is what is going on in the kremlin is just what is going on among us. everybody is scratching our

heads and saying, how did we get here? the russia watchers i have been talking to and reading, everyone's is scratching their heads. the only sense i can make from a day like today, you have two guys who found themselves in untenable situations and had to find their way out. prigozhin is go, go, go, and had all the support, marching on moscow, passing through military garrisons and all the sudden realized, did i bite off more than that i can chew? and the group of chechens and you have putin with about 25,000 troops marching on me? what do i do about that? even if i defeat them, it's going to look back. and the bess they can come up with, how about belarus?

they will do whatever we tell them. it's not something that they drup on their own. everyone is scratching their heads, and putin should have seen this coming much more, and he has much more responsibility for this than prigozhin does. prigozhin is a bold guy. putin should have seen it coming literally months ago. we'll see how it ends up. i don't think the story is over yet. >> i suspect you're right about that. and general, i keep thinking about the images we were showing when nic robertson was reporting that prigozhin loves the adulation and the cheers, and he was getting it. it's extraordinary to see it take place in putin's russia. and when putin described the march as an up rising and wagner's actions as a stab in the back of our country and our people. how do we get to that prigozhin

able to hop off to belarus and the kremlin dropping charges against him? i'm not saying steve was offering a simple explanation, but they figured out a way for all of them to get out of the jam, and that has to be the way it is for the time being. >> yes, i think that there was -- they had found themselves almost looking with brinkmanship at each other. prigozhin and wagner probably bit off far more than they could chew. but they had the opiate of all these people and public along the way, cheering them on, down the m-4, which is a very good highway going through cities and towns. yeah, i think's that that. i think they had to come out. i think just to realize they had

bitten off -- and putin. is on also. it's not just -- he's there. he's certainly the maximum leader. what are his intelligence people saying? his military? what is fascinating in the 400-mile run in russia, yeah, there were a couple helicoptering we heard about but there was no national guard action, no military blocks. and they were able to move back and forth. i think the regime, putin himself, realized that we need to get -- turn this thing around. because the way the narrative is going, it's not going to be good, and i think he was probably getting a lot of advise on this, though he doesn't normally listen to it. and we don't know where this is going to go. and last point, i'm wary because prigozhin is a survivor. belarus, he's going to go there

without his wagner group. they're going to disband and blend in the m.o.d., the wagner group, they're going to give away his riches. so i think is a lot more to be looked at. this, i think, is a very temporal deal, if you will. >> steve, prigozhin claims the forces took the russian military headquarters without firing a shot. and we saw the video, the people cheering in the streets for the wagner fighters. what does this say about putin's grip on power? i'm sure you have been hearing all the conversations and participating in some of them all day long. putin's grip on power is slipping, this is a bad day for vladimir putin and so on. do you buy that or can he get back to business? >> i didn't see how he can, jim. he's, i think, wounded.

now, a year ago, we were saying the poor ukrainians, how long do they hold out against the russians? who knows, not long. the business of predicting what putin and the rugtsssians are gg to do is fraught with danger and the expectations, the russian society have after their leader and the leader is supposed to provide them first and foremost with stability and safety, and even though this was a russian marching on, this is prigozhin, and his group marching on moscow, that is instability, and not to mention the ukraine war, that prigozhin said, putin said it's not true. it's a lie. that that cognitive dissonance, and inability, if russians get access to that, it will cause problems. he may have lost the confidence

of his innermost eastern. the senior leadership. the real question, can he recover from that? if anybody's going to conduct a really successful coup against putin, it's going to be those people. and if they lose faith in him, the way he has taken the country, that can still happen. >> yeah, general, that raises a good point. might -- might the people closest to putin be sensing a opportunity here? or even some maximum danger in what prigozhin was able to pull off there? and might they be tempted to take some kind of action for their own part? and usher putin out so he leaves the scene in ways that russians only know how to do? is that too much of a farfetched scenario? what do you think? >> first of all, very much appreciate steve's last

comments, and they segue great into what we're talking about here. i think that the -- that you have -- you have always had kremlinology, but you have sort of a new age -- to use the term almost inner kremlin, inner sanctum "game of thrones" going on. he expects loyalty back, and i think things are beginning to fall apart. and who will make up the power center around him? survivors? opportunists who have moved up through there? they are all in with the boss,

until when? and i think that putin has -- has shown real clay feet, not just now, not just in the last 36 hours but all the way back to the war, the beginning of the war, almost a year and a half ago. so i think that -- that the threat -- these are veteran power brokers, in the security surface. putin last year and others, savaged publicly, the head of the cia equivalent, and then the military. the military has been abused by prigozhin and others. putin has been careful about that, but the military has got to be -- there has to be fury there too, and how long does loyalty work? especially when your leader has gone wobbly and taking the country potentially down a dark space and you're going with it, if it continues this way.

>> all right, well, lots to comp template in the next few days here. thanks so much for helping us analyze all this at the end on of a very long day. peter zwack, steve hall, thank you very much. appreciate it. coming up, u.s. intelligence have been gathering intelligence on putin and prigozhin for months. we will tell you what it shows. you're l live in the cnn newsro. meet the future. a chef. a designer. and, ooh, an engineer. all learning to save and spend their money with chase. the chef's cooking up firsts with her new debit cd. hungry? -uhuh. the designer's eyeing sequins. uh no plaid. while mom is eyeing his spending.

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>> remarkable scenes out of sl russia in the last few hours. loud cheers as wagner founder yevgeny prigozhin leaves the area. he says he will be heading out to belarus as part of a deal to avoid spilling russian blood, as he called us. joining us now is terrorism expect malcolm nance. great to see you. i know you have been saying you thought some of this would be coming to pass, that perhaps putin's days were numbered because of the way he overextended the russians in ukraine. what do you make of what has occurred in the last 24 hours? and do you think it would be the beginning of the end for vladimir putin? >> well, let's look at it from a

u.s. intelligence perspective. this would have been a day that is absolutely maddening. what appears to be a trend of activity that is leading you in one direction. you are collecting information left and right, you're starting to see it firm up. and then the entire process turns on its head with one division by prigozhin, apparently negotiated by schenko and that will completely reverse anything you have ever collected against prigozhin and wagner. that itself is a little maddening. the question is not the who, what, when, where and how. it's always the why. why did this event occur? why did it participate the way did it? and in the end, why did it stop? >> yeah, why did i stop? we were talking to steve hall in

the last segment, and he thought this is the only clean way for each of the sides to back away from what would have been a lot of blood schedule, russian bloodshed, as prigozhin was describing it. >> well, you think about it that vault mere putin has a very long, deep connection to prigozhin. prigozhin ran the restaurant when he was deputy mayor of st. petersburg. prigozhin had his mafia restaurant that he came to. he brought him to the kremlin, gave him food contracts for the armed forces, and all the schools of russians made him a billionaire, and then gave him the state organization, which allowed putin to have deniability in different parts of the world, and that is pmc wagner. it's clear that prigozhin was upset the way that wagner was

treated on the battlefields of ukraine. we caught wagner and they have a higher level of experience. the russian army's level of experience is far lower than that, and prigozhin thought his forces were mistreated. for him to carry out 19-17 2.05 and march it out, it's a little confusing. no matter how favorable a deal, he is likely a dead man walking. vladimir cannot afford to keep him alive. the why is going to be one of the great intelligence mysteries here. >> absolutely. and you mentioned you were fighting with the international leon in ukraine and you had encounters with the wagner group. they had been fighting some of the more effective battles the,

and what happens now? ? is the wagner group not finished? i guess nobody nopes or do we know? >> it's absolutely fascinating. what -- apparently prigozhin was to be disbanned in the earnl of the russian army. that is why he did it, on the march on to moscow. supportedly to change the government, get rid of vladimir putin, become the strong man himself. and then he brings it back and now the actual same deal is doing. wagner and some are going to fly out and others will get contracted in place under the russian army. so wasn't it just an elaborate

bus bus byzantine kabuki? >> yeah, and putin is certainly not going to be trusting him any time soon. mal malcolm nance, thanks, great to talk to you. >> my pleasure. the mercenaries have turned about. is it threat to putin over? and what does it mean to the war in ukraine? i will talk to a guest next live in the cnn newewsroom in a few minutes. communities and the people who live and work ththere grgrow and thrive. we're proud to call these places home too. they're where we put down roots, and where together, we work to help move

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worse. a putin alley-turned critic marches on moscow. but instead of a coup, he abandoned the short-lived insurrection. prigozhin will go to belarus and will not face charges. but the political landscape has seen a seismic shift. joining us now is congressman. it was quite a day a wild day, and still a lot of questions

that remain for all of us to unravel in the days ahead. what is your sense of it? is vladimir putin really weakened or as people have been saying today? or what is your sense of it? >> strong men only survive in russia, and the idea that putin had to go to a third world power, in belarus to ask him a five get him out -- i would say that a hawk with a mercenary he helped start, basically tells them he is weak. he has to worry about the ministry of defense, not r realizing he was doesn't have people to fight for him. wagner was able to march 400 miles with no one able to stop them. if they are not able to stop

someone like wagner, are they going to be able to stop someone who has more following with an army or other services. the history of russia, if you are a weak leader, you will be taken out. time is not on his side. i don't know how much time that will be. but russia tends to repeat itself when it comes to history, and prigozhin apparently stood down. vladimir puttin remains in powe now. do you buy it, that? the last 24 hours, putin was saying that russia had stabbed him in the back. i can't imagine that is that good for prigozhin either. >> well, prigozhin is a mercenary, and he acted like a p mercenary and he took a better

deal. i don't know will happen to bella ruz. i would avoid bull buildings if i were him. putin is weaker than he has been in the past, and crukraine, a really good example of what happens when a couple is invaded and they took together a fought. slaush had an insurrection and basically nobody fought for putin. >> how do you think ukraine should respond? should it be taken as a funt for the ukrainians? >> well, i think the ukrainians should take every opportunity to actually push forward and try to get as many gains back. what it tells us, americans should not stop parting ukraine. the plan has been to stop the united states and the west, and

they think they weight us out and they did overwhelm ukraine. we know that russia is internally weak, and the last thing we should do is not supporting ukraine in its fight for freedom and to gain back its land. it will's take a real lesson from this. russia is the weak country. russia and allies are the institution of the world, and we as freedom fighting and freedom loving country should push forward to make sure that ukraine stays free and can gain back the territory land. >> to your point, i know you said that ukraine can win this war, if they're getting the weapons they need to defeat the russians. is now the time for the biden administration to step up u.s. support for ukraine by providing by weapons, like long range -- more long range weaponry? does the biden administration need to seize a moment here? >> i certainly have said this

before. if you plan for a long war against russia, you will get a long wore against russia. we need to give ukraine the capable tips it needs to befend itself and go on the offense to gain back territory, that is recognized by it commercial community, and the idea we are going to create a scenario with russia, i think it's a ridiculous scenario. i this they biden is moving on, but i think long range, can build with attacks, forever, a very great asset from russia, to really be able to -- you know, really take that battle to deeper parts of the former ukraine and push russia back in their homeland and hopefully end

and the it echoes things from the other side of the while. if you take putin out of the situation, it could end up worse. that you can end up with someone worse than putin. what do you make of that logic? does it work for you? >> i think that's an excuse for us not to keep engaging in ukraine. you can really get someone worse -- a remainer in crew yan, and civilians who was trying to assassinate people in the united kingdom who violated national laws inviding if and the way that you contained slaush is making sure that russia knows they will bauls met we quaul redistance and they have to

avoid by the international order or they will be 234e679 and i feel like nenl. >> all right, congressman, thanks very much for your time. appreciate it. >> thank you. have a good one. >> all right. thank you. you too. coming up a western official specially here in the u.s. are closely watching the situation in russia. we will have the white house reaction coming up. you're livive in the cnn newsro. ...and thoughtful details... ...inspired by you. ( ♪ ) from the brand that delivers amazing ownership experiences, this is the first ever, all electric, rz. this is lexus, electrified.

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>>. >> a remarkable day in russia, with leaders around the word watching it play out. secretary blinken said that the u.s. will stay in close partnership with alleys. kevin with the latest. k kevin, so many questions about what happens next. they have just getting the day started there, and they have a lot to assess, and so do u.s. officials. >> i think the u.s. officials are saying, what does it mean for the war in ukraine? a distracted russia would be a good day for the eweukrainians,t

what happens if putin escalates and he takes a step forward because he feels boxed in? that is part of what is forming the u.s. strategy today, basically to not respond, to say nothing. certainly there is a design to not appear as if they are putting a finger on the scale here, and not to provide a pretext for putin to said this is an american plot, which is a playbook of his in a lot of instances. and you saw him talk to the french president, and the german chan chancellor, and the english prime minister, and they could say that is a made up nato plot. but it did catch the white sox

by surprise, how quickly thises s escalated. but the u.s. officials should been monitoring it for a long time, going back adds early as january, they warned about this potential power struggle, even as recently as last week, they were briefing members of congress about preparations that they saw in their intelligence that the head of the wagner group was preparing to take the steps that he e havenventually take sbhsm we saw a number of officials, including the joint chiefs chairman mark philly, and jake sullivan. both had planned a travelo overseas. they have scrapped that travel and they are going to stay in washington to watch. >> kevin, thanks very much for

that. appreciate it. although much remains uncertain in russia right now, u.s. officials tell cnn they have not seen changes in russia's nuclear posture as a result of yevgeny prigozhin challenging vladimir putin. kylie, a listening day for you at the state department. and president putin has engaged in nuclear saber rattling throughout the war, there is not as a result of the incident, and i guess u.s. officials are taking comfort in that, they haven't seen anything change in terms of the nuclear posture. >> yeah, that's right. taking comfort in the fact they haven't seen any change, any movement to russia's nuclear arsenal over the past 24, 36 hours as the threat from prigozhin has faced the kremlin. but it's important to note, as you said, the kremlin, president

putin has engaged in nuclear saber rattling over the concern of the ukraine war. and the concern for u.s. officials, as the war evolves and there are escalation points on the battlefield, he will have to use his nuclear capabilities, and this is a result of what is happening on the battlefield, and also a result of what is the divide of the russian fighting force, and that situation does threaten president putin. so there are concerns about what he could potentially do with his nuclear capabilities. we should note that earlier this month, putin said they had moved the fact cal weapons in russia for the first time. that was a concern for officials, and right now, they

say no change to the nuclear posture. >> another story i know you have been watching. what about the americans who have been detained in russia earlier tonight. i mentioned any instability would make concern for the americans. any part of those kind of develops and what would i mean for the americans detained in russia tonight? >> yeah, u.s. officials who track the miles an hours who are wrongfully detained in the country with, they are working it closely, and of course one of the concerns as they engage in efforts to try to get the americaning out for plong so the tactics they may come to the baseball with e and do they use

this to get nor leverage? they are trying to get something out of the u.s. burks does the situation mean they are going to increase the cost for the u.s. as they try to engage in efforts? we don't note answer to that question yet, jen. this is such a rap lidly e wolfing situation. we don't know what the ripple effects are going to be, the other issues the its has with russia, and the world has with russia. we will be closely watching to see how the play poefr and. >> yeah, there will be a lot to watch in the coming days, and thanks very much. i know it's been a long day. appreciate it. more coming up, and kylie was talk about the detainees. we will continue that on that

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there is little event that it will have imact on the russian leadership. joining me is diane foley, the mother of james foley, kidnapped and killed by isis. she has a legacy. it's so good to talk to you again. really appreciate your time. there are at least four americans known to be wrong bli detained in russia right now. how do you see the really remarkable developments in the last day or so in russia. how do you see the developments impacts what is happening with those americans? >> well, as kylie was just saying, it creates a lot of enserenity. it really does. we're not sure what it means in terms of the miles an hours who are hold, wrongfully delined in

slaush. and i could say to stay foe and the appeal was rejected and now several re and evan and paul and others. fwhaus's what we need to do. we need to protect our citizens. i just spoke we elizabeth, and she's very concerned about his life. his slif in danger, as long as being health captain in slaush noimp so very disturbing --

>> disturbing events in the last 24 hours. does it make putin more desperate? does he feel like he has to flex his muscles? what does it mean for the americans? >> well, that is the question. it absolutely, jim, that's why we have to stay very focused and be shrewd watching and negotiates. it's essential. i hope it will be an opportunity, and one never knows with someone like -- with putin, one never knows. but it's very concerning for me. i'm very concerned. >> oifk of course, and i guess you are just mentioning the flip side after this, because if it does mean that perhaps we're

seeing the beginning of the end and maybe the beginning of the end -- it takes along time before he actually gets to the end. but if it is the beginning of the end, if putin's hold on power, perhaps there are people who are much more national who say this is maybe not such a great ideas to be snatching basketball players and journalists and holding them, and detaining them for leverage. >> exactly. exactly. jim, that's what i'm hoping. that, you know, this might -- i just like to think very positively about it. but i think the big thing is, we have to stay focused on our priority as a count, and yeah, i'm hopeful of the group people

and i'm hopeful in that regard and i feel like the country has to stay focused and prioritized, the freedom of our citizens who are unjustly held in russia. i really want that to be a focus. >> you said you spoke with the family of paul wieland. any update on paul? >> well, it's tough. elizabeth and david, his siblings are truly heroic in their efforts on behalf of their brother, paul. they know he is innocent of any wrong doing and here he is, you know, in a very harsh labor camp enduring a really, really tough time. you know, food is terrible. back breaking work. they are very worried about him,

and elizabeth was recently at the u.n., and spoke at the national security council. they are truly amazing advocates for their brother. >> you are an advocate for this coup. you are up late for us. it's in new hampshire, thanks for your time. we appreciate it. >> thanks for all you do. >> thanks. before we go tonight, i want to take a momen

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