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this is "gps", the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live. we'll begin today's program with the stunning developments in russia over the last few days. i'll be joined by top analysts who will help us understand what is happened so far and what might happen next and what is all means for the war in ukraine. also, french president emmanuel macron. i talk to him at a global summit he hosted in paris this week about how the west could help end extreme poverty and curb climate change. and about the striking rise of china and the potential of a thaw in its relations with the

u.s. it is been an extraordinary 48 hours in russia as the world watched what president putin called an armed rebellion. the rebel leader prigozhin was the top caterer before he threw away his kitchen apron and now wears military fatigues as the head of wagner group which has provided mercenaries in africa and the middle east and a key player in russia's war against ukraine. according to statements from the russian government, the criminal case against prigozhin was dropped yesterday after he agreed to leave russia and go to belarus. let me bring in matthew chance in moscow. good to have you. what is the mood in moscow? >> well, i mean, that is a great question. because yesterday the mood was extremely anxious. it was bracing itself for, the

city was, for a potentially bloody confrontation. barricades were set up at the entrance points of the city and trenches were dug across the main access roads to try to slow the advance of the wagner armored column heading decisively toward the outskirts of the russian capital. it stopped a couple of hundred miles on the outside in the end. but, you know, there was a lot of tension that people were sort of bracing themselves for potential blood shed. and that is been averted because of the deal that you referred to, prigozhin has apparently been sent to belarus. although, i spoke to belarus official this is morning and they say they have no details on what his status is going to be inside of the country or whether he is actually arrived yet. but that relief is also amongst people in moscow, it also coupled with a high degree of anxiety about what comes next. because the idea that this is

now doing to have a line drawn under it by vladimir putin, and it is just not going to be mentioned again, it totally unrealistic. this was obviously an unprecedented challenge to vladimir putin's authority over the country and he could well now move into the days and the weeks and months ahead to crack down on the supporters of prigozhin to tighten laws even further. i mean, who knows what. and that is what the anxiety is all about now, fareed. >> do you see anything in terms of troop movements in russia or announcements that would suggest a crackdown has begun? i know putin has his own presidential guard which is like a roman emperor guard. are you seeing anything that suggests a kind of crackdown? >> no. i mean, not at this point. in fact, it is eerily quiet.

in venice, it is a sunday. it is not the busiest day of the week, but tomorrow is declared a holiday in moscow, a non-working day as they call it here and that is for security reasons. there are still anti-terrorism measures, as the moscow authorities have called it, that have been put in place in moscow. the security measures elsewhere, outside of the capital in other towns that were soft of like rostov in the south occupied by prigozhin's mercenary fighters, they've lifted their restrictions and moscow still has them in place and by absence has been vladimir putin. we haven't seen him in public or television in any way except in a rerecorded interview done last week before this crisis happened. since he gave his very angry remarked and hi very angry pledge to crack down on what he called this armed rebellion

against his authority and we haven't seen him since then or nor have we seen -- and remember it was so sort of topple the heads of the defense ministry and the chief of the military staff as well for the been dauz t because of the complaints against him. they haven't been seen in public at all. >> matthew, thank you. stay safe. i know it is a tricky business reporting out of moscow these days. so, how should we understand this russian rebellion? what it does mean for putin's hold on power? i want to bring in today's trevor panel. ann applebalm and marsha is from the new yorker. marsha, what is the -- what the kind of main conclusion you draw from the events of the last 48

hours? >> well, this was the biggest crisis that the putin presidency has ever faced. in 23 years in power, he has not faced this kind of challenge to his monopoly on political action and his monopoly on violence. so, you know, it can't be underestimated. granted, it is a coup that failed and most cuoup does fail. and prigozhin never said that he was going up against the president. his march was to the president. he very much sort of maintains this narrative that if the president is doing something that he doesn't support, that the people don't like, the people that he claims to represent, then it is because the president doesn't have the right information. the president himself is beyond assault. >> ann, to me the most significant thing prigozhin said is something that you allude to in your atlantic piece which is

he directly and frontally criticized the entire rational for the war on ukraine. that seems a major -- i mean this is a guy who has been -- who has been running the one part of the army that seemed to be winning the battles in ukraine and he's saying the wa was started on bogus claims? >> yes. this to me was the most extraordinary thing that he said yesterday. he said there were two reasons for the war. one was that the defense minister shoigu wanted to become a marshal and raise her rank and the other reason was that lots of russian elites have made money from the occupation of eastern ukraine from donbas since 2014 and now they wanted to make more money. and he was saying this is purely self-interest and greed and no reason to fight this war and he accompanied that by saying how badly russian soldiers have been

treat and how many had died unnecessarilych this is undermining the narrative of the war and the entire narrative of the invasion of ukraine going back to 2014. i think it put him in tune with the russian army in a way that maybe the russian military leadership is not. in that he wasn't talking about imperialism or peter the great or some kind of idea about russia's special role or christianity, he was talking about you haven't giving us enough weapons or letting us fight. and i think this is the reason why so many soldiers seemed at least initially prepared to support him. to me, the extraordinary moment yesterday was after that comment was when he was sitting in rostov and chatting away and they were happy that he was there and nobody was trying to arrest him or take him away.

so he had a rapport and a ability to impress the army. i mean, the question now is whether any of that will be retained. >> and ann, do you have a sense as to why it all collapsed so quickly. at some level it was kind of weird. he had at most 25,000 troops, putin's personal presidential guard is by some counts 200,000. so, it seems like a mad escapade. what is your sense of why it fizzled out? >> i mean, it seemed like a mad he i escapade from the moment it began until he was in rostov with his tanks, nobody believed he would do it. the only guess i could have is that he was -- this is a mercenary. he wanted his money. his contract was over july 1st and they offered to pay him off. that is one possibility. the other possibility is that maybe he expected more inside support than he got. maybe he had some expectation of somebody being there in moscow

to welcome him that didn't materialize. but i don't think we're going to fully understand yesterday's events for some days or maybe even weeks. >> marsha, do you have a sense about the whole issue of the people on the the streets in rostov, for example, seemed to be cheering him on. that would seem kind of dangerous? what conclusion do you draw from that? >> so, you know, his main audience is the military and the people who adjacent to the military. and that is exactly who was in rostov, in the streets of rostov. i wouldn't put too much stock into his undermining the rational for the war narrative. there are many rationals for the war, it works by creating a caulko phony and what he has done is he's tapped into a deal

well resentment within the military which feels like it is been mistreated, misused, like the bosses are corrupt which is a fact. so that is deep russian sense of we're being skewed over by our bosses and everybody is corrupt, that is what he's talking to. and that is i think why we saw him sort of chatting and in a friendly manner with the deputy minister of defense in that rostov courtyard and why he got -- there weren't thousands on the streets in rostov, but the people came out to say thank you or to applaud prigozhin's troops. i want to say that every coup is a game of chicken. and i think that you try to march to moscow at a certain point it was probably becoming clear to him that he wasn't going to get to moscow alive and that is when he turned around. i think -- i don't think there

is a whole lot to untangle there. that war of nerves failed. >> marsha and ann stay with us. when we come back, we'll talk about what all this means for war in ukraine when we come back. with the freestylelibre , know youglucose level and where it's headed. no fingersticks needed. manage your diabetes with more confidence. freestyle libre 2. try it for free at freestylelibre.us psoriasis really messes with you. try. hope. fail. no one should suffer like that.

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and we're back with annapple balm and marsha. what are the lessons we should draw about putin and how to negotiate with him. because it does seem like putin called prigozhin a traitor. he called this an armed rebellion and a act of betrbetrayal and then negotiated with the guy and gave him a seemingly asylum in belarus. so, to me, it seemed to suggest that when faced with a real -- a

real threat, putin climbed down, that one should -- shouldn't worry too much about putin being willing to climb down in ukraine and find himself a face-saving excuse because when confronted with force, he found a way to back down. >> fareed, you're exactly right. there have been a number of moments in the last self years and also in the last year and a half when faced with something stronger, putin stepped back and he retracted and then changed the story and makes up a new one. in the morning prigozhin is a traitor and causing a civil war and in the afternoon we more give him and he's moving to minsk, maybe. and there was an interesting moment in 2014 when the russian army tried to using kind of sab tours and provocateurs to take more city in ukraine. wherever they were met with

force, they stepped down and moved back. so we may well have overrated his toughness. he may have overrated his ability to -- to push things through to the bitter end. this is something who will step back and make up new stories if he needs to make them up. >> marshal, when you look at the situation, at the heart of it is putin's decision to use a whole bunch of militias in ukraine. for a variety of reasons he's not wanted to use the regular army initially because he wanted to pretend there wasn't an invasion in 2014 in this most recent invasion because the army wasn't fighting hard enough and so he gets the chechens and then the wagner group. does this mean that the whole strategy is now going to be disbanded and it is just going to be the russian regular army which didn't seem to be fighting very well in ukraine.

>> well i think there are two aspects to this. he carved up the armed forces, as dictators often do, to make sure he wasn't facing a military coup. so he always, you mentioned the presidential guard, which could have been marshalled against prigozhin if he had continued his march on moscow. t this is the kind of contingency he was waiting for, by creating the army are their armed contingents and through plausible deniability in ukraine and now the bigger problem he's facing to the strategy of carving out the military has clearly proved dangerous in itself. but also, prigozhin's mercenaries are no longer in play in ukraine. that significantly weakens

russia's military effort. at the exact right moment for the ukrainians while their staging their counter offensive. so i can't predict what putin's strategy on the battlefield is going to be. but i can say what -- with a fair am of confidence that this is good news for ukraine. >> and we have about 60 seconds. what are you hearing from ukraine? have you very good contacts there? what is the mood there and the sense of what is going on there? >> i mean, people were sanguine about this. they kept a lot of distance from the events. people didn't invest too much into it. they know that prigozhin has killed a lot of ukrainians, but generally speaking the appearance of weakness in moscow is good for them, it creates doubts in the mind of russian military commanders and allies around the world and that has to help ukraine in the short or long-term. >> and do you think that there

is something that we should watch for in terms of the counter offensive now? >> i mean, i'm not sure the counter offensive is going to change. but we should watch for it and continue supporting it and make sure that they win. it is a -- the country they're fighting against is one that is decaying and falling apart and based on a series of lies and ukrainian victory would improve that situation. >> and in a way zelenskyy made exactly that kind of appeal in a series of tweets that he sent out saying that shows you they control nothing, essentially they're a paper tiger. thank you both. really fascinating set of insights. appreciate it greatly. next on "gps", i was in paris for an interview with french president emmanuel macron. he has a important insight into the fight against climate change

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i was in paris this week for an interview with french president emmanuel macron. on thursday and friday he hosted a summit bringing together world leaders an stakeholders to seek now ways of funning the fight against climate change and extreme poverty. we m we met on friday morning on the side lines of the summit, before the events of the russian rebellion were known. >> mr. president, pleasure to have you again. >> thank you for being here in paris. >> let's talk about this conference, 55 heads of government, heads of state here, trying to get some kind of

agreement about what to do about climate change, about debt relief, poverty reduction. isn't the fundamental problem you face that in the wealthy countries of world, the domestic politics right now does not allow for a massive expansion of aid and you need a lot of money to solve the kind of problems you're talking about. >> look, i think this summit is very important moment. for at least two reasons, if i may say. first one, geopolitics. there is a big risk of a global divide. because of the war in ukraine, and the whole dynamic and this divide is a west against the rest and this narrative is pushed by some big country, i would say, for several reasons, but listening to a lot of leaders during the past year, i was very upset by this narrative

of double standard. and a lot of leaders in this world say to us you have a lot of billions for ukraine but when the question is to fix poverty, climate change, climate vulnerability in our country, it takes years or decades to find a few millions. this is quite true. i think we are right to do what we are doing for ukraine because we are fighting for international law, for our liberty and our principals and for a country being aggressed. but let's be clear, we were not sufficiently sufficient vis-a-vis poverty and the climate change at the same time. so we have to address this narrative of double standard. otherwise it will be used by some of us to create an alternative to military order. new financial institutions, new global order and to say world bank, imf, even united nations

are no for efficient to fix our issues. let's create something else. this -- gathering from the u.s. to china to south africa and nigeria and saudi arabia, a lot of countries very poor to very rich, to build together is a second objective of this summit. it is precisely to fix a new consensus. because we created our financial institutions in the world where more than half of this country didn't exist. they are not fairly represented. and at that time, the change was not at the magnitude they are facing. poverty and inequality increased during the past few years and covid crisis and the crisis now had a huge impact in poverty in a lot of these countries and climate change and biodiversity

crisis has huge impact on those countries an impact for all of us because we we'll never fix this issue, emerging in poor countries and this is precisely to fix with them this question, this nexus, poverty, biodiversity climate and to find new instruments and mobilization and we're designing this new consensus for people in planets around four principles to be clear. number one, nobody should be put in a situation to choose between poverty and bio diversity. this is for the countries and for us. because a lot of the countries are -- in terms of biodiversity and key for our fight against the zero emission. if they keep differentiating, the impact for the whole planet

is huge. so principle number one, they have to fight together against poverty and climate change and biodiversity. second, we have to repespect ea country on its own task and that is why this is much more contract by country to be negotiated. it is to be implemented for everybody. third, we need much more public money. much more investment from rich countries, much better utilization by imf and world bank and here we signed a new record for imf and world bank and this is a key international moment, better coordination with public development banks and yesterday we set up the first political summit finance in common with all public development banks and military institutions from china to the u.s., europeans, the emerging, the saudis and so on.

so more. and fourth, we do need more private money. to fix this issue in a lot of this country. and world bank committed to have a leverage of at least one. for one dollar of public money, we have one dollar of private money being invested. this is key. and this is why we are channeling all of this liquidity on sovereign funds, asset managers, private equities, part of this world to be channeled to this country and this project. what do they need? they need first mechanism, new guarantees, new fencing in order to take the risk in these different countries. this is what we are fixing in this summit. >> next on "gps", emmanuel macron said the quiet part out loud in april when he said

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change is beautiful. paris and washington have a special relationship. after all, france was the first military ally of the yet to be formed united states during the revolutionary war. but will that relationship holdover france and its neighbors find another path. after a three-day visit to china in april, president macron told reporters that europe needed what he called strategic autonomy. he didn't want the continent to be a vassel or follower of china or america. here is more of my interview with the french president. >> let's talk about china. you had a very important trip to china and after you came back, you said something that provoked a certain amount of opposition in europe and particularly the

united states. most specifically your comment on taiwan. so i want to ask you, you said that, you know, europe needs strategic autonomy, it should not be a vessel of either china or the u.s. and we should be careful not to accelerate a problem that is not ours. the house of representatives said these comments are disgraceful. >> -- is there anything you want to clarify or change about what you said. >> i was clear and i want to be clear. on taiwan, we are in favor of the status quo. which means we are dead against any aggression and we do respect the existing monthedel. and this is what i raised with president xi jinping and i understand this is the position of president biden. second, i never put france in sort of equal distance vis-a-vis

china and the u.s. we are aligned in nato, our history with the u.s., we do share the same values. we are economic competitors. but we are closely linked by history, by the alliance, and i mean human relations and friendship. we want to have the best possible relationship with china. we want and we have to work with china to fix climate change, biodiversity crisis and it is clear that we don't share all of the same -- i mean, all of the same values. and we have very differences in h human rights but we have to respect each other and we are competitor and our willingness is to -- china in the global order. that is what we're doing here in this conference. so this is just to sort of a

perception that china and the u.s. could be put at the same level vis-a-vis, which is not the case. but i want to insist on the point, for me it is very important to have a much more autonomous europe and european union. why? because it is useful for the global order. i think it is useful even for the u.s. it is useful to have a more powerful europe being in capacity to fix conflicts such as border. i think we are very lucky to have a u.s. administration ready engage in ukraine today. would it be the case in a few years or in a few decades? i'm not sure. the europeans have to build themselves at capacity to preserve peace in their territory and in their neighborhood. second, i want for all citizens to be independent in terms of technology, defense and energy.

and i would say the key structures of normal life. why? because nobody knows what could happen in the rest of the world. and if you are dependent on one country, you could be put in a tricky situation. today you have a leadership in this urnt coo which decided to completely flip-flop and it did happen. >> yes. >> so i don't want to be put in such a situation again. so i think it is fair as a european to be very pushy for -- and it is useful for the u.s. from a different point of view because this is burden sharing and it is useful for the global order because it is helping the u.s. and the alliance to be in a -- with other people with big powers with which it is more difficult for the u.s. so i think it is not a lack of respect vis-a-vis the united states and by the way, i discussed with president biden before and after my trip and we were very clear and i so that i that you have a president clear

regarding china and sensible regarding this interest and he's not pushing for an increasing of the conflict. and this is my last point on china and your question, my main objective was to say, through different initiatives, we should not push -- push the chinese to overreact in the short-term. >> after you made those remarks about taiwan, almost it seemed that a poll came out in which they asked europeans whether they would be willing to fight in taiwan, over taiwan. and the overwhelmingly people in europe said no. do you think that vindicates the point you were making about taiwan? >> no. i mean, i'm always very cautious with polls because sometimes they are good and sometimes they are bad and i think you have to design your strategy referring to them as well as the long-term

interest for everybody. i think we have to be -- we have to be very strict in our values and in perspective and global order. but i think these words, because the top priority of our agenda is to fix global problems. i think for me the top priority of the global agenda is trying to fix the existing crisis, fighting against inequality and poverty and fixing climate change and biodiversity. these are the key challenges of the decade. i would act as one find and building a good framework and common regulation on artificial intelligence. here are the key elements of a global agenda. to deliver this agenda, we need cooperation and especially we need cooperation between china and the u.s. we did sign the paris agreement

because president xi and president donna found an agreement a few months before. if there is not agreement between china and the u.s., on all of these topics, it is impossible to build a global agenda and fix these issues. here are my top priorities. that is why i think for the critical elements where you will increase divisions and conflict and tension between the u.s. and china, we should try to moderate them to find a way to -- i mean, this is quietly and building relevant to decrease tensions because our priority should be to fix this. >> mr. president, always a pleasure to have you on. >> this is mine. thank you, fareed. thank you. >> thank you, sir. and next on "gps yt. >> while i was in paris i regarded many i take which is on relations between the u.s. and another key nation, india.

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here is my take. as the biden administration welcomes india's prime minister modi to washington lavishly, some experts are warning that the u.s. shouldn't succumb to irrational exuberance about the two country's relations. they write that india will never be america's ally no matter how warm washington's embrace. india is focus on its own national interests and will pursue them narrowly. the off sided example is india refusal to condemn the russian invasion of ukraine. the skeptics are right to note that india has long resisted the pull to become a full fledged ally of the united states. and it will continue to do so.

like any country, it does have its own interest to worry about. but india is changing and in the past the country has placed little emphasis on foreign policy. devoting its energies instead to managing the vast complexities of its own society. which is characterized by thousands of casts and communiti communities, dozens of languages and huge regional diversity. now the rise of china has finally gotten its attention. the 2020 clash in the himalayas, which chinese and indian soldiers fought over a still disputed border area was a wake-up call for india's strategic elite and to some extent the entire country. public sentiment shifted sharply and today a large number of indians regard china with hostility. for its part, beijing has done little to try to solve the problem. it actually re-en forced its military infrastructure along the border which will allow it

to search troops whenever it sees the need. since the clash, india has outright banned many chinese companies and technologies from operating in its market. including huawei and tiktok. the threat from china will motivate india to strengthen its ties with america for decades to come. yet as india emerged as a great power, it will have to adopt a more expansive vision around the world and define its attitude toward the international system itself and how its own ideas and ideals should effect its stance. in the process, it might well decide that it values a rules-based international system and see that as the world's largest democracy it gains enormous soft power by adopting a foreign policy that is influenced by its democratic ideals. even if it won't be feasible in every case to apply them. such selectivity is after all

true of most democratic countries including the united states. there is a separate critique of the over turn of modi that deal with his government's policies toward minorities, the press, the judiciary and other independent agencies of the democratic system. many of these critiques are accurate. modi has precised over a decay of democracy in india and all of the major think tanks have downgraded india in recent years. sweden's institute judges that india is no longer a democracy at all, describing it as an electoral autocracy. but how washington should handle democratic decay in a country like india is a complicated problem. the truth is that modi is extremely popular in india. and what is more, his hindu nationalism is also popular.

like erdogan in turkey and orban in hungary, he is tapped into vein that scored checks and balances and liberal constitutionalism. in all of these places the populist leader is against the old secular cosmopolitan elite and truth be told there is often much frustration with that helie which seemed disconnected from ordinary people and their ideas and emotions. i sometimes wonder whether all of these countries are revealing that the values of an open society, pluralism and tolerance and secularism, were an import from the era of the west dominance in the world and that the erosion of these ideas is gradually revealing a more authentic less tolerant

nationalism. the former u.s. ambassador to india, john kenneth goldbraith told him once, i am the last englishman to rule india. the country and his fellow post independent leaders created was built on values that its founders drew from their deep association with britain and the west. their india was a secular pluralistic and democratic and socialist state. all of those ideals have been fading in india in recent years. in any event, lekuring modi on human rights is not the best way for the biden administration to deal with him. that would backfire. not only with him, but also with moat indians would are recent western bullying. far better to ally with india's society itself, expanding ties with its businesses, press, ngo's cultural groups and

others. india is one of the most pro-american countries in the world, something that is palpable when you're there. companies and students and scholars and activists all want closer ties with mamerica. this people to people alliance will strengthen the government to government relations between the two countries. but more important, i believe that an india that is more deeply connected to america will be a country that will naturally seek to perfect its democracy at home. and that will also give it moral authority in a fracturing world that could use more of it. go to cnn.com/foreed for a link to my washington post column this week. thank you for joining us and see you next week. ♪ ♪ [typining]

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