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public square. welcome to all you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live. we begin with the stunning new development in russia over the last few days. i'll be joined by top analysts who will help us understand what has happened so far, what might happen next and what it all means for the war in ukraine. ♪ ♪ >> also, french president emanuel macron. i talked to him at a global summit he hosted in paris this week about how the west can help end extreme poverty and curb climate change. ♪ ♪ and about the striking rise of china and the potential of a thaw in its relations with the u.s. it's been an extraordinary 48 hours in russia as the world

watched what president putin called an armed rebellion. the leader yevgeny prigozhin was the kremlin's top caterer before he threw away his kitchen apron. he wears fatigue as the head of the shadowy wagner group which has fought in conflicts in africa and the middle east and has been a key player in russiaya war against ukraine. according to statements from the russian government, the criminal case against prigozhin was dropped yesterday after he agreed to leave russia and go to belarus. for more let me bring in nic robertson in london. nic, lukashenko, the ruler of belarus' role here is quite extraordinary. a junior partner negotiating for russia to save putin from a possible assault on moscow. what do you know about whether prigozhin, has he actually gotten to belarus? >> we don't know, and apparently, the belarusians

don't know either. lukashenko has a 20-year history of knowing prigozhin and it's part based on that knowledge of each other that he stepped in here, and the best analysis has to be lukashenko who is a weaker partner to putin. putin stepped in and helped him out in those elections in 2020 that were widely regarded as fraudulent and he asked putin for help and putin stepped in. lukashenko and belarus have become a base for putin's war in ukraine to the south. he is very much the junior partner and he is unlikely to have gone out on a limb and helped prigozhin here. equally, when you look at prigozhin leaving rostov undone last night to the cheers of crowds and with all that heavy, modern military equipment getting to walk away with it, and not just saving his own skin earlier in the day, the

president said what he was doing was treasonous and putin disliked people who aren't loyal to him and that was the ultimate attack of disloyalty and prigozhin seems to have had leverage in this deal because he was able to walk away, save his life, and ostensibly go to belarus and take much of his military hardware with him, and i think it really doesn't pass the sniff test so far inasmuch as we don't know the details and prigozhin has utterly disappeared. what kind of deal is this, and has he gotten what he wanted out of it which is replacing russia's defense minister? even that isn't clear at the moment. >> as you say, nic, you wonder about any promise that putin makes to somebody who has betrayed him this dramatically. i would not be surprised if in a few months prigozhin somehow

disappears. what are you hearing about the mood in moscow? you know, i gather that the barricades have come down. they had been preparing for an attack and had put up all kinds of almost trenches around moscow. are you hearing anything out of moscow these days? >> there seems to be some crowd control on red square although there were no crowds, but the control barriers are there. normally people can -- are free to roam across red square and sunday is quite a popular day, if i'm in moscow i'll take a walk across red square and it is empty today. there are barricades stopping people getting onto it. that seems to be minor compared to the security measures that are being put in place around the capital. i think the sense is early yesterday there was a real concern about what could happen and moscow and rostov-on-don where they were holed up, people

were fleeing the city, cueing up at the airport to get out of the city and the growing concerns were in the day and dissipated later in the day yesterday. i think mood at the moment is a sense that it is not all over. it is not all done. the immediate threat of a pos earn clash in moscow is gone, but the sense of unease about what it means for the leadership and putin's power at the moment, i think, that's going to endure. >> nic, thank you for your excellent reporting. so how should we understand this russian rebellion? what does it mean for putin's hold on power? i want to bring in today's terrific panel. anne applebaum is a pulitzer prize-winning historian and a staff writer for "the atlantic" and marcia is a staff writer for "the new yorker." marcia, what is the main conclusion you draw from the e

ve vents of the last 48 hours? >> this is the biggest crisis the putin presidency has ever faced. in 23 years in power he has not faced this kind of challenge to his monopoly on political action and his monopoly on violence. so it can't be underestimated. granted it is a coup that failed and most koos failed and another thing is that prigozhin never said he was going up against the president. his march was to the president and very much sort of maintains the narrative that if the president is doing something that he doesn't support that the people don't like and the people he claims to represent, then it's because the president doesn't have the right information. the president himself is beyond assault. >> anne, to me the most significant thing prigozhin said is something that you allude to

in your atlantic piece had is he directly and frontally criticized the entire rationale for the war in ukraine -- for the war in ukraine. that seems a major -- i mean, this is a guy that's been -- who has been running the one part of the army that seemed to be winning the battles in ukraine and he's saying the war was started on bogus claims? >> yes. this to me was the most extraordinary thing that he said yesterday. there were two reasons for the war and one was that the defense minister shoigu wanted to become a marshal. he wanted to raise his rank and the other reason was that lots of russian elites had made money from the occupation of eastern ukraine from donbas since 2014 and now they wanted to make more money. in other words, he was saying this is purely self-interest. this is purely greed and there was no reason to fight this war and he accompanied that by saying how badly russian soldiers had been treated, how many had died unnecessarily.

i mean, this was really undermining the entire narrative of the war and really the entire narrative of the invasion of ukraine going back to 2014. i think it put him in tune with the russian army in a way that maybe the russian military leadership is not, and that he wasn't talking about imperialism or peter the great or some kind of idea about russia's special role on christianity. he was talking about you aren't giving us enough weapons and you aren't letting us fight. i think this was the reason why so many soldiers seemed to at least initially prepared to support him. to me, the extraordinary moment yesterday was after that comment was when he was sitting in the courtyard in rostov with the leaders of the southern military district chatting away, and they seemed very happy that he wases there and nobody was trying to arrest him or take him away. so he has some kind of rapport

and he had some kind of ability to impress the army. i mean, the question now is whether any of that will be retained. >> and then do you have a sense as to why it all collapsed very quickly. at some level it was kind of weird and he had at most 25,000 troops and putin's personal presidential guard is by some counts 200,000. it seemed like a kind of mad escapade. what's your sense of why it fizzled out? >> i mean, it seem like a mad escapade from the moment it began so much so that people literally until he was in rostov with his tanks nobody really believeded that he was going to do it. the only guess i can have is this was a mercenary. he wanted his money and his contract was over november 1st and they wanted to pay him off and maybe he expected more inside support than he got. maybe he had an expectation of

someone being there in moscow that welcomed him that didn't materialize, but i really don't think we will fully understand yesterday's events for some days or maybe even weeks. masha, do you have a sense of about this whole issue of the people on the streets in rostov, for example, seemed to be cheering him on. that seems kind of dangerous. what conclusion do you grew draw from that? >> so, you know, his main audience is the military and people who are adjacent to the military and those are people who were in the streets of rostov. i w i wouldn't put too much stock on the rationale for the narrative. propaganda works by creating a cacophony. i don't think he pierces the propaganda bubble, but what he has done is he's tapped into a

deep well of resentment especially against the military which seems like he's been mistreated and misused and that deep, russian sense of we're being screwed over by our bosses and everybody is corrupt. that's what he is talking to. and that's, why, i think, we saw him chatting in a friendly manner with the deputy minister of defense in the courtyard and there weren't thousands in the streets in rostov, but the people who came out came out to say thank you or to applaud prigozhin's troops. i also want to say that every coup is a game of chicken, and i think that he tried to charge to moscow at a certain point and it became clear that he wasn't going to get to moscow alive and that's when he turned around.

i don't think there's a lot to untangle there. a bad war of words failed. >> masha, anne, stay with us. when we come back we will talk about what all of this means for the war in ukraine when we come back. uh... here i'll take that. -everyone: woo hoo! ensure max protein with 30 grams of protein, one e gram of sugar. enter the nourishing moments giveaway for a chance to win $10,000. my most important kitchen tool? my brain. so i choose neuriva plus. unlike some others, neuriva plus is a multitasker supporting 6 key indicats neurivaof brain health.tasker to help keep me sharp. neuriva: think bigger. dupixent helps you du more with less asthma. and can help you breathe better in as little as 2 weeks.

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but don't know what to do next? call invent help today. they can help you get started with your idea. call now 800-710-0020. we are back with anne applebaum of "the atlantic" and masha gessum with "the new yorker." putin and how to negotiate with him because it does seem like putin called prigozhin a traitor. he called this an armed rebellion. he called this an act of betrayal. he compared it to the bolshevik revolution and then he negotiated with the guy and gave him -- and seemingly has given him asylum in belarus. to me it seems to suggest that when faced with a real threat

putin climbed down that one shouldn't worry too much about putin being willing to climb down in ukraine and find himself a face-saving excuse because when confronted with force he found a way to back down. fareed, you're exactly right. there have been a number of moments in the last several years and also in the last year and a half when faced with something stronger putin steps back. he retracts and then he just changes the story and makes up a new one. as you said, in the morning, prigozhin is a traitor and he's starting a civil war and in the afternoon we forgive him and he's moving to minsk, maybe. we've seen this in other moments. there was an moment in 2014 when the russian army tried using saboteurs and provocateurs and tried to take more cities in ukraine. wherever they were met with force they stepped down and

moved back. and so we may well have overrated his -- his toughness. we may have overrated his ability to, you know, to push things through to the bitter end. this is someone who will step back and who can clearly make up new stories if he needs to make them up. >> masha, when you look at the situation it seems to me at the heart of it is putin's decision to use a whole bunch of militias in ukraine. for a variety of reasons he never wanted to use the army and he wanted to pretend that there wasn't an invasion of 2014 and it's because the army wasn't fighting hard enough and he has the chechens and the wagner group. does this mean that the whole strategy is now going to be disbanded and it's now going to be the russian regular army which didn't seem to be fighting very well in ukraine.

>> well, i think there are two aspects of this, and one is that he carved up the armed forces as they do when facing a military coup. he mentioned the presidential guard if prigozhin had continued his march on moscow, this is exactly the kind of contingency he was preparing for by creating, in addition to the regular army, various other armed contingents. in addition to creating, as you mentioned sort of plausible deniability in africa and syria and in ukraine. and now the bigger problem that he's facing is the strategy of carving up the military has clearly proved dangerous in himself and prigozhin's mercenaries are no longer in play in ukraine and that

significantly weakens russia's military effort at the moment while staging their counteroffensive. i don't know, i can't predict what putin's strategy on the battlefield is going to be, but i can say with a fair amount of confidence that this is good news for ukraine. >> anne, we've got about 60 secondses. what are you hearing from ukraine? you have very good contacts there. what is the mood there? what is your sense of what's going on there? >> i mean, people were sanguine about this. they kept a lot of distance from the events yesterday. people didn't invest too much hope in it. they know that prigozhin has also killed a lot of ukrainians, but generally speaking, the appearance of weakness in moscow is good for them and it creates doubts in the minds of russian military commanders and russian elites around the world and that has to help ukraine in the short or long term. >> and do you think that there's

something we should watch for in terms of the counteroffensive now? >> i mean, i'm not sure the counteroffensive is going to change, but we should watch for it and we should continue supporting it and make sure that they win. i mean, the -- the country they're fighting against is one that's decaying and falling apart and based on a series of lies and the ukrainian victory would imrprove that situation. >> in a way, zelenskyy made that kind of appeal in a series of tweets he sent out saying this shows they control nothing. essentially they're a paper tiger. thank you both, a fascinating set of insight. a, appreciate it greatly. next on gps, i was in paris for an interview with french president emanuel macron. he has really important insights

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the future starts now. i was in paris this week for an interview with french president emanuel macron. on thursday and friday he hosted a summit bringing together dozens of world leaders and hundreds of other stakeholders to seek new ways of funding the fight against climate change and extreme poverty. we met on friday morning on the sidelines of the summit before the events of the russian rebellion were known. >> mr. president, pleasure to have you again. >> thank you for being here in person. >> let's talk about this conference, 55 heads of government here, trying to get some kind of agreement about what to do about climate change

and about debt relief, poverty reduction. isn't the fundamental problem you face that in the wealthy countries of the world the domestic politics right now does not allow for a massive expansion of aid and you need a lot of money to solve the kind of problems you're talking about. >> look, i think the summit is a very important moment for at least two reasons, if i may say. the first one geopolitics. there say big risk of a global divide. because of the war in ukraine and the whole dynamic and this divide is the west against the rest and this argument is pushed by some big countries, i would say, for several reasons, but listening to a lot of leaders during the past year i was very upset by this narrative.

a lot of leaders in this world say to us. you have a lot of billions for ukraine and to fix poverty and climate change in our country, it takes years or decades to find a few millions. this is quite true. i think we are right to do what we are doing for ukraine because we are fighting for international law for our lib are they and our principles for our country being aggressed. we are not sufficiently efficient, vis-a-vis the south and a lot of countries facing poverty and climate change at the same time. so we have to address this narrative of double standard otherwise it will be used by some to create an alternative. new financial institutions, new global order and to say world bank, imf, even united nations are no more efficient to fix our

big issues, let's create something else. this is the number one reason for me. this forum, gathering from the u.s. to china, brussels, nigeria, saudi arabia, the europeans and so on, a lot of countries, very poor to very rich, to build together a new consensus. it's the second objective of the summit is precisely to fix a new consensus because we created our financial institutions in the world where more than half of this country didn't exist. they are not represented, and at that time it was not at a magnitude they are facing. poverty and equality increased over the past few years and covid crisis, food crisis now has a huge impact on poverty in a lot of this country and climate change and biodiversity crisis have a huge impact in this country and impact for all

of us because we will never fix this issue vis-a-vis emerging in poor countries and this new consensus is precisely to fix with them this question, this nexus, poverty and biodiversity, climate and to find new instruments and new mobilization, and we are designing this new consensus for people and planet around four principles, to be clear. number one, no nation should be put in a situation between poverty and biodiversity. [ indiscernible ] >> a lot of these countries are an absolute treasure for us in terms of biodiversity and absolutely key for the fight against co2 emissions. the impact for the whole planet is huge so principle number one,

they have to fight against climate change and biodiversity. second, we have to respect each country on its own path in order to fix it. this is much more contract by country, to be implemented for everybody. third, we need much more public money, much more investment from rich countries, much better utilization by imf and world bank, and i think here we find a new road map for imf and the world bank, better coordination and more exposure which is a key and this is a transformational moment and better cooperation with public development banks and we set up the first political finance, and institutions. from china to the u.s., europeans and the emerging and the saudis and so on.

so more and we do need more private money to fix these issues in a lot of this country, and the world bank committed to have a leverage of at least one for one dollar and we have at least one dollar of private money being invested. this is key, and this is why we are channeling all these liquidities on sovereign front, asset managers and private equities part of this world to be channeled to these countries and this project. what do they need? they need first to make new guarantees and new financing in order to take the risk in different countries and this is what we are fixing in the summit. >> next on "gps," emanuel macron said the quiet part out loud in april when he said europe needs strategic autonomy, not to be

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paris and washington have a special relationship. after all, france was the first military ally of the yet-to-be formed united states during the revolutionary war, but will that relationship hold over france and its neighbors find another path. after a three-day visit to china in april, president macron told reporters that europe needed what he called strategic autonomy. he didn't want the continent to be a vessel or follower of either china or america. here's more of my interview with the french president. >> let's talk about china. you had a very important trip to china and after you came back you said some things that provoked a certain amount of opposition in europe and in particular the united states.

most specifically a comment on taiwan. so i want to ask you, you said that, you know, europe needs strategic autonomy and either china or the u.s. and on china or taiwan, we should be careful to accelerate a crisis that is not hours. the house of representatives said these comments are disgraceful. is there anything that you want to clarify or change what you said? >> look, i was very clear, and i want to be clear. first, on taiwan, we are in favor of the status quo which means we are dead against immigration and we do respect the existing model, and this is what i reiterated was president xi jinping and this is exactly the position of president biden. second, i never put france in a sort of equal distance with

china and the u.s. we are in nato and history with the u.s. and we do share the same values and we are economic competitors and we are closely linked by history and the alliance and relations and friendship. we want to have the best possible relation with china. we want and we have to work with china to fix climate change and biodiversity crisis and a lot of conflicts in his world and it's clear that we don't share all of the same values and we have very big differences on human rights and so on, but we want to find the right way to respect each other and we are a competitor and our willingness is to encore china in the global order and this is what we have here in the global conference. this is a sort of perception

that china and the u.s. could be put at the same level which is not the case, but i want to insist on the point. for me, it's very important to have a much more autonomous europe and european union. why? >> because it's useful for the global order. i think it's useful for the u.s. it's useful to have a more powerful europe being in capacity to fix the conflicts at the border. i think we are very lucky to have a u.s. administration ready to engage in ukraine today. that wouldn't be the case in a few years or decades? i'm not sure. the europeans have to build themselves to the capacity to preserve peace in the territory and in the neighborhood. second, i want us for our citizens to be in a situation to be independent in terms of technology, defense, energy. i would say the key structures

of a normal life why? because nobody knows what could happen in the end of the world. if you're dependent in one country, you could be put in a very tricky situation, and you have someone who completely flip-flopped and guess what? ? and i experienced that, so i don't want to be put in such a situation again. so i think it's fair as a european to be very pushy for me. it's useful for the u.s. from a different point of you because being in a situation to discuss with some other people with which it's more difficult for the u.s. so i think it's not a lack of respect with the united states, and by the way, i met with president biden before and after my trip and i was very clear, and i can say that you have a president who is extremely clear regarding china and sensible

regarding this, and he's not pushing for an increasing of the conflict. and this is my last point on china and your question. my main objective was to say through different american tiffs and non-coordinated initiative, we should not push the chinese to not react. almost, seemed like they would be willing fight over taiwan. >> overwhelmingly people in europe said no. do you think that vindicates the point you were saying around taiwan? >> no. i am always very cautious with polls because sometimes they're good and sometimes bad. i think you have a long-term interest in everybody. i think we have to be -- we have

to be very strict on our values with the global order, but i think this world needs less because as a top priority of our agenda is to fix global problems. i think for me the top priority of the global agenda is trying to fix the existing crisis, fighting against qualities and poverty and fixing climate change and biodiversity. here are the key changes and it is this decade. i would add to this one, find and building a good framework and come on regulation of artificial intelligence. here are the key elements of the global agenda. to deliver this agenda, we need cooperation and especially we need cooperation between china and the u.s. we did find the agreement because president xi and

president obama found an agreement a few months before. if there is not an agreement between china and the u.s. on all of the studies and it's impossible to be able to build a global agenda and to next these issues, here are my top pray orit priorities and the critical elements where you will increase intentions between the u.s. and china, we should try to moderate and find a way to, i mean, this is quietly and build a relevant -- to decrease tensions because our priority is to defeat this one. >> mr. president, also a pleasure to have you on. >> it is mine. thank you, friend. >> thank you, sir. next on gps, while i was in paris, i recorded my take which is on relations between the u.s. and another key nation, india. when we come back.

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here's my take -- as the biden administration welcomes india's prime minister to washington lavishly, some experts are warning that the u.s. stuhouldn't succumb to exuberance about the two countries' relations. he writes that india will never be america's ally, no matter how warm the embrace. india is focused on its own interests. the example is india's refusal to condemn the russian invasion of ukraine. india has long resisted the pull to become a full-fledged ally of the united states, a version of britain and asia. and it will continue to do so.

like any country, it has its own interests to worry about. but india is changing. in the past, the country placed little emphasis on foreign policy, devoting its energies instead to managing the vast complexities of its own society, which is characterized by thousands of communities, dozens of major languages and huge regional diversity. now, the rise of china has finally gotten its attention. the 2020 clash in the himalayas, when chinese and indian soldiers fought bitterly over a still-disputed border area, was a wake-up call for the india elite and the entire country. public sentiment shifted sharply. and a large number of indians regard china with hostility. they have done little to solve the problem. it reinforced its military infrastructure along the border, which would allow it to surge

troops whenever it sees the need. since the clash, india has constrained or outright banned many chinese companies and technologies from operating its in market, includiiing mawae an tiktok. the strength in china will divide for decades to come. as india emerges as a great power, it has to adopt a more expansive vision of its around the world and how its ideals should affect the stance. in the process, it might well decide that it values a rules-based international system and sees that as the world's largest democracy, it gains enormous soft power by adopting a foreign policy that is influenced by its democratic ideals. even if it won't be feasible in every case to apply them. such selectivity is true of most democratic countries, including

the united states. there is a separate critique of the overtures towards modi that deals with the minorities, the press and the judiciary and other agencies of the system. many of the critiques are accurate. he has presided over a decade of decay in india. all three of the major international thinktanks that measure the quality of gmic governors have downgraded india. sweden's institute ranks india no longer a democracy at all. describing it as an electoral oautocracy autocracy. he is extremely popular in india. hindu nationalism is popular. like netanyahu in israel, and

erdogan, he has tapped into a vein in the country that scorns minorities, checks and balances and liberal constitutionalism. the nationalist populist leader sets himself and his many followers against the old secular cosmopolitan elite that's ruled the country for decades. truth be told, there's much frustration with that elite, with an establishment that seemed disconnected from the heartland of the nation, from ordinary people and their ideas and emotions. i wonder if the countries are revealing that the values of an open society, were an import from the era of the west dominance in the world. and with the erosion of these ideas is gradually revealing a more authentic, less tolerant nationalism. the former u.s. ambassador to

india, john kenneth goldbrait, said i'm the last englishman to rule india. it was built on values that its founders drew from the deep association with britain and the west. their india was a secular, mrum pluralistic and democratic state. all of those ideals have been fading in india in recent years. lecturing modi on human rights is not the best way for the biden administration to deal with him. that would backfire. not only with him, and also with most indians, who would resent western bullying. far better to ally with india's society itself, expanding ties with its businesses, press, ngos, cultural groups and others. india is one of the most pro-american countries in the

world. something that is palpable when you're there. companies, students, scholars, activists, all want closer ties with america. this people-to-people alliance will inevitably strengthen the government-to-government relations between the two countries. but more important, i believe that in an india more deeply connected to america will be a country that will naturally seek to perfect its democracy at home. and that will also give it moral authority in a fracturing world that could use more of it. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my "washington post" column this week. thank you for joining us. and see you next week. oh yeah, that is them. (that is howard) yeah, that's on howard's campus.

ohhh, she's so powerful, she carried on the family legacy. we were blown away. (chuckles) but i've been a professor there for twentyears, so it's really special moment to know that i had a family member who over a hundred years prior have walk these grounds. it's deeply uplifting. yes, it is. we're walking in their footsteps. my most important kitchen tool? my brain. so i choose neuriva plus. unlike some others, neuriva plus is a multitasker supporting 6 key indicators of brain health. to help keep me sharp. neuriva: think bigger. ♪ at morgan stanley, old school hard work

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