and when you see other people not giving up on your child, it makes all the difference in the world. interviewer: when you call or go online with your credit or debit card right now, we'll send you this st. jude t-shirt. you can wear to show your support to help st. jude save the lives of these children. subject 6: st. jude is hope. even today after losing a child, it's still about the hope of tomorrow, because. childhood cancer has to end. interviewer: please, call or go online right now. [music playing] this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the

world. i'm fareed zakaria. today on the program -- from the czars and arenas to soviet-era com czars to president putin. we delve into the nature of power in russia looking at the past to help us understand the present. i'll talk to the new yorkers david remnick can professor nina krus efa. also the prime minister of barbados on getting the west to pay for damage for the climate change's rising seas and weather. >> two degrees is a death sentence. >> and the president of kenya on why many nations in the global south are not taking a side on the war in ukraine. but first, here's my take. in his important book the third

wave samuel huntington pointed out the division among the ruling elite is a key sign of weakness in authoritarian regimes. when prominent members of the establishment break with the system it often triggers a larger set of changes. conversely, when you do not see such defections it means the autocrat will probably be able to survive. syrian dictator bashar al assad offers one example of this principle at work. so how would we apply that to russia today? yevgeny prigozhin's failed attack has revealed some dissent within russia's elite and vladimir putin was apparently able to snuff it out within a day or two. it appears that prigozhin did not get public support from the kremlin which may be why he ended his quixotic march on moscow. the crushing dissent from liberals and now he's subduing his nationals on the side.

power struggles take place in a black box. as the lines are often attributed to winston churchill go, political intrigues are comparable to a bulldog fight over the rig and an outsider only hear his the grumbling and when he sees the bones fly out it's obvious who won. it is prigozhin's bones figuratively and perhaps soon we will see it literally. what is not a matter of speculation is the russian society. i've been stunned since i read it. a 15-year-old male has the same life expectancy as a 15-year-old male in haiti. russia is one of the world's richest countries in terms of natural resources and urbanized society we levels of education and literacy comparable and exceeding european countries. this analysis comes from an august 2022 working paper by the

scholar nicholas ebber statstat who has long studied democracy. he points that for two decades russia has been depopulating. from 2014 to 15 deaths have outpaced biggers and this trend is one that we've seen in many industrialized countries and what stands out in russia is its mortality rate. using the world health organization's data in 2019 before any effects from covid or the war. the world health organization estimated a 15-year-old boy in russia could expect top live another 53.7 years which is about the same as a haitian and below the life expectancy for males in yemen, mali, and south sudan and european males of around the same age could expect to live about seven years longer than russians. education correlates in good health and it points out that shockingly, russia is a country

with first world educational levels and fourth-world mortality rates for its working age population and he then digs deeper into the educational attain ams and finds that the mystery deepens with huge numbers of well trained people especially in the sciences, russia performs miserably in the knowledge economy, much worse than did the soviet union. in 2019, russia ranked behind austria in international patent applications despite having 16 times the population. today it ranks alongside alabama and the gold standard for companies everywhere, despite having almost 30 times the population of alabama. all these numbers will likely get much worse given the hundreds of thousands of likely well trained urban, educated russians who fled the country after its aggression against ukraine. what explains this stunning

mismatch in russia? a i new book by the scholar alexander atkin makes the case that putin has created a parasitic state that gets revenues by extracting natural resources rather than any creative production and which fulfills none of the nufrfuncti of a modern state in terms of providing welfare for its people. it's a clipt on kratic regime, and after the protests against him in 2011 and 2012 which an enraged putin blamed on then secretary of state hillary clinton, the russian state became even more anti-modern. you see, for putin's regime, the west now represents forces of social, economic and political modernization that could infect russia. in his speech, might inaccused

the united states of seeking to destroy russia's political value which is directly lead to degradation and degeneration because they are contrary to human nature. for putin, modern iedzing russia will create a more active civil society we more demands for better healthcare and a less kleptocratic state and he advocates traditional, and strict gender conformity, of course. what does this all add up to? i am not sure, but it is fair to say that russia's biggest problem is not that it is losing the ukraine war, but rather that it is losing the 21st century. go to cnn.com/fareed for a lenk to my washington post column this week and let's get started. ♪ ♪

the events of the last nine days in russia have left many questions. first and foremost, how firm is president vladimir putin's grip on power today? to answer that and much more i've asked david remnick to join me here in new york and nina kruscheva joins us from moscow and beginning in 1988 he spent four years in moscow reporting for "the washington post." his first book on russia received the pulitzer prize and it is called lennin in's tomb, the last days of the soviet empire. nina is the professor of international affairs and is notably the great-granddaughter of the soviet dgranddaughter. nina, what is the mood in moscow and what do people think about this issue of is putin consolidating his power or is he

now substantially weaker? >> putin has been quite weak for quite some time and one of the reasons, of course, is the war in ukraine is now almost a year and a half in, russia is not winning despite the expectations and how not weak that power is. the choice that we talk about the cool, potential cool mutiny that didn't work out was that the choice was between hard core nationalists like yevgeny prigozhin who in his calls to to the military, his interviews were talking about cleansing russia with blood, studying a new revolution and defending russia from all enemies putin does the same thing it was more of an insidious nationalism and

contr control-driven, but most of it is outside russia. so in this sense, the choice, of course, would be for putin and i was walking around moscow especially on saturday during the mutiny and people were saying quite openly whatever we think of putin i still want my child to go to school and i don't want him to be a soldier and he consolidated -- putd in, has not lost his grip on power, at least not in the near-term. of course, we know from russian history things can change at any moment and david was a great witness to this, and i remember he left the soviet union and then had to come back to witness 1991. >> david, it is a very different scenario, but describe to us what you think were the key -- what was the key thing that happened to make that soviet edifice of power collapse when you look at it now?

>> the collapse of the soviet union had all kinds of reasons that were economic, political and technological, lagging behind and there was a leader -- a leader of the communist party, that institution which ruled the soviet union that felt it was time for a change. you don't have that, you're in quite a different position. i think what's so significant. one of the thing that's so significant about what's happened is that the regime in russia is a personalized regime, there are aspects to it with the mafia regime in the way that they relate to each other, but it's entirely centered on one man and it's the creation that's accumulated over 23 years. what happened in the past week is that the sense of mystery was removed. this is so important, the sense of ubiquity and all knowingness that putin knows best and that if something goes wrong the czar

didn't know in the old phrase and now we see his ordinariness. we see the fissures in the -- in the -- in the regime and people are starting to look past putin. that is a crucial thing. yes, he may stay in power for a long time to come. each in the communist times there was an attempt made on nikita khrushchev that didn't succeed and some years later it did and he was thrown out of power and british eventually took it. >> he was thrown out of power in part because of the cuban missile crisis, the sense that he -- >> he wasn't strong enough. >> and he failed in an international crisis. >> and he was deemed by the communist party, too erratic in his public staples and there were all kinds of reasons for that. with putin, it's a sense that, look, he's -- he's in power for a very long time and the fact that this could happen on his watch is immensely embarrassing and humiliating. there's no question and

prigozhin was a critic that was useful for a long time to putin. he balanced out shoigu in the defense establishment and this was his way of seeing the world. >> i think his elites on. >> this was a gigantic mistake even though he was fighting the war and in his view, effectively. >> nina, i've got to ask you about this issue that you've raised which seemed to me the central one which is do russians fear instability? do russians fear the alternate testify putin as being a internationalist like prigozhin or the collapse -- do they still have memories of the 1990s where things really did -- society almost collapsed and russian gdp contracted by 50%. is all that going to help putin? >> i think it is helping putin

to some degree. of course, many people do not remember 1990s, but the older people do remember, and these are actually people who support you more than others, precisely because they had the memory when everybody was wiping as the way they think about it, everybody was wiping their feet over russia so putin had put a stop to that, and in effect, putin now uses the prigozhin mutiny so effectively is that you don't like me and you don't think i'm stable, but look what could have happened then, and so stabistability especially because russian history is one giant history of crisis all of the time. you wrote this piece about demographic issues, fareed. they know that their life, really, corruption is part of that is that you know your life is going to be over any time soon so you'd better steer more. you'd have to figure out how you

can live without being shaken more and in this sense, actually putin uses his power incredibly effectively. >> stay with us. when we come back, i'm going to ask david and nina what all this means for the war in ukraine.

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we are back with david remnick of "the new yorker" here with me on set and nina khrushcheva joins me. it seemed that prigozhin said in his rambling 11-minute telegram monologue was a pretty frontal attack on the rationale for the war in ukraine. >> that's right. remember, for months and months prigozhin would go on telegram with his message system that lots and lots of people look at in russia, and in the most profane language which is very attractive, it's something that putin used to do and really kind

of get a rise out of ordinary people, his critique was aimed at shoigu and gierasimov and th leaders of the military effort in moscow. it was directed at moscow. we are here fighting the war in ukraine and you in your palaces in russia don't care about people getting killed and it was a competency argument. that changed. in the latest rant and the most recent rant it had to do with the rationale of going in in the first place. now he didn't direct it absolutely at putin. he didn't say putin did this for some pernicious reason. he said that he was manipulated by the defense establishment, but that -- but he did say there was no need to invade, and if you had said that as a, you know, left-leaning school teacher or ngo activist you would find yourself in jail, but it was quite something else hearing that from somebody who

at least pretends to be the most protective, defense asset that the russian army had and that, i think, sank in and i think and nina can tell us better that these kind of things also reached state television which is very important. the critiques of the war were not reaching state television. now this activity has bubbled up into certainly to the newspapers that i'm reading in russian, and i would imagine it's even gotten to the level of the propagandas on television which is very important. >> nina, david puts it exactly right. do people -- are people aware that prigozhin argued that the ukrainians did not attack. there was not a nuance that this was all being done by russia and his argument is that the russians who were dominating the donbas wanted to extract even more from ukraine? >> i mean, according to polls,

the majority of russians think that, but actually, if you read polls correctly, they may not be the majority. probably 20% think that firmly, 20% think some of it and 40% even -- maybe even more, leave us alone. it doesn't go well and we're just trying to purrsurvive, and of the difficult things to understand about russia. it's not a coherent space and it's not a coherent ideology in any way and one of the main symptoms is a double ego, and i use it as an explanation all of the time and it's important. that part of the schizophrenic part is part of the russian psyche. so, yes, now they question the beginning whether we need it or not, but the thing is we're almost a year and a half into that war. so who is going to look at the beginning. now the question and that's what the prop gandists do.

now we need to win because imagine that russia is going to lose all of it in 11 time zone, so the argument shifted and that's why i don't believe it hurts putin that much. >> david, it does -- the whole thing does sound somewhat terrifying, particularly the way you described it, which was putin's vertical of power as he called it. it's totally personal. when you think about -- if she were to die in china, we know -- >> you may not like it, but there is a coherence and a logic and he and his personality are central to it. >> but in his case -- >> you can imagine a future after it. if putin goes you have these 11 time zone, the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, veto in the security council. >> right. >> could the russian state just collapse? >> i don't know. i mean, but -- and i should say that the key word here that

people talk about in russia to describe power in that -- in that structure is clans. not parties and civic organizations and constituency, but clans. clans within the fsb. clans within the interior ministry and within the defense ministry and all the rest and there are factions and there are -- there's no raving liberals, and that's for sure, but the difference between the temp temperament in the fsb, but i don't think we should sit around waiting for gorbachev, much less sakerov to e merging post-putin. it is a colossal mess. >> nina, what do you think putin's fate is in a situation where he does not achieve his

objectives in the war in ukraine? >> it is for putin, david also mentioned about gangster state which putin -- the relationship are very gangstery so he's in charge sort of the robert deniro in his best roles and we do know when power shows weakness, when it kind of goes and even if they're fighting amongst themselves they're still needing that icon in front of them and that picture in front of them because they don't know who among them is going to win. so the man on top is a very useful tool for them to kind of center around and fight it out while he's still there and the same thing is happening with putin. so if he goes, we don't know what that fight between clans are going to happen and as david said it's not going to be -- it doesn't look like gorbachev or khrushchev could be a part of that scenario. so it will be the key, and the power ministry and the army and

the clandestine services and these are not pretty people. so for now, for all of these clans, it's convenient to have putin and that's the source of his power. so he kind of takes them one against another and stays on, and so in this sense, actually, the stalemate war is convenient for him because as long as he fights that, as long as he doesn't give up, he continues to be the president. >> i should point out that there is, in a sane world an opportunity to signal a transition. there's an election or an election coming up in russia and putin has, you know, in the past appointed a successor figure and allowed that successor to at least punitively be president for a while dmitry medvedev. he can do it again. dmitri medvedev can regain his stature in the political stature in these days and i doubt that he'll return as a punitive

president or future president, but putin could, now that he's in his 70s and now that he's been in power for 23 years and now that he's had this disaster in front of him, he could, in a sane world, at least indicate some political preference for a successor figure either to replace him semiimmediately or down the road and make it kind of obvious in the interest of some kind of authoritarian stability. it's not clear that he'll do that because it's not clear that he trusts that process won't undermine him and his power because, you know, it's like the old dictator who would begin a speech, if i die -- >> thank you both very much. this is a fascinating conversation of, you know, about the riddle wrapped in the mystery inside the enigma as churchill said. >> next on gps. my next guest says the world's rich countries bear the lion share of the responsibility for causing climate change.

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climate change has imperiled island nations like barred as on with more intense hurricanes and more frequent floods and droughts. the nation's prime minister mia motley popped into global consciousness two years ago when she delivered a speech advocating forcefully for global action on climate change and for the rich nations to do more. she's declared that the crisis is a code red emergency. i sat down with her last week on the sidelines of the summit for a new global financing pact in paris. it was organized by president emanuel macron and aim at tackling the global challenges of climate change and poverty. here's our conversation. >> madam prime minister,

pleasure to have you on. ? thank you so much, fareed. >> you are very eloquent and also very frank. so i've got to ask you, there are a lot of people in the north, in the united states, in britain and france saying why should we, at a time when we are just recovering from the covid economy, we have inflation. why should we be providing more money in whatever form, financing and things like that to countries in the developing world to deal with climate change or whatever it is. what do you say to them? >> two fundamental reasons. one, it was their industrialization and their prosperity that caused a problem, but more importantly than even that now, they don't live on a different planet from us. there is no blame game anymore on this planet if we don't find a way of living on this planet together as banger says we need a livable planet and there is no plan to go to mars yet.

what happened in the last winter in the united states of america in wyoming with temperatures 30 degrees from ours, what happened last week in canada with smoke coming down to new york and d.c., how much more evidence do we need to know that we're in this together and although we need to limit the temperatures to 1.5 consistently, because wooe gone there already and unless we can do so consistently and it is a death sentence, but it's going to take trillions. they're talking about sums of money larger than people can really even imagine. how do you get to those numbers? >> you talked more than i do about the disparity in income and the whole inequality bap in the united states of america. where does that come from? i believe that in addition to getting countries to summon the will to be able to increase their capital in the world bank and other regional development bank, we also and in addition to the technical things we can do to unlock private sector

capital, there is the reality that we need to find a new source of capital for the global public goods, and we believe that multinational corporations who are benefiting egregiously, who have caused a problem need to leave a few cents in the dollar profit on the table. >> do you, when you look at what is going on in paris with this climate financing conference and others, do you think we're on the right track? >> i do think that we're moving in the right direction, but i don't think we're moving with the pace or with the scope that's necessary. whether we like it or not it's coming at us and if you know you're on a track and a train is coming at you at full speed you don't stay on the track and what is necessary now is for us to build a coalition and what is happening is domestic politics and geopolitics are getting in the way of us doing the right thing. we know what has to be done, but unless the political will can overcome the geopolitics and

overcome the domestic politics we're not going to get there without significant losses of lives and a significant impairing of livelihoods. >> you've been sounding the alarm on this for a while, do you come at this fundamentally as an optimist? do you think we're going to get there? >> i have to be. i genuinely believe we can get there. he are human beings. we have the capacity to reason and we have the capacity to engage and one of the disappointments in the developing world and on the pandemic and on the climate crisis is on the absence of global leadership that brings people to the table and says, hey, we need to leave something each and every one of us, in my own country. i use a simple motto. share the burden and share the bounty. if we don't share the burden of saving the planet, then it is a moot point and to believe that

mankind cannot become extifnct r that civilizations can't become failed is also a failed civilization. we know of extinct species on earth. >> prime minister, always a pleasure to have you on. >> always a pleasure to be with you and please keep up the excellent work. >> next on gps, the president of kenya. you'll want to meet that nation's self-proclaimed hustler in chief who went from poverty to the presidency last september. back in a moment. 24 hours later when your dishwasher is full, let finish quantum clean your dishes. if the stains aren't gone, your lasagna is on finish.

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ooof, still yellow. whitening toothpaste can only do so much. there's toothpaste white, and there's crest 3d whitestrips white. so much whiter! crest. kenya is a country that's always fascinated me. it's one of the largest economies in sub saharan africa and it has its own version of silicon valley called the sil silicon savannah. it's the most stable democracy in central and eastern africa and william woodrow is the country's self-proclaimed

hustler in chief who pulled himself out of poverty. he went from selling chickens at a roadside stall to the highest office in his land. i talked to him when i was in paris last week. president, welcome. thank you very much, fareed. >> so you have had not a difficult, but a dramatic ascension to the presidency and you ran to kenya, and you were running against who was for many, many years the opposition leader and narrow victory and the case goes to the supreme court, but everyone abided by the results. years ago, there were almost riots and there was a similar situation between kenyatta and odinga and what do you think has changed in kenya that people accepted the supreme court ruling. >> two things, kenya is maturing as a democracy, and people have come to appreciate that we are a democracy and the people have

the final say. secondly, we ran a different campaign in this election, in 2022 we ran a campaign about issues, and it was about housing and it was about jobs, it was about health, and i think it speaks to the maturity of the people of kenya and it speaks to the maturity of our democracy and it speaks to the fact that kenyans want to be able to identify an issue-based campaign and an issue-based candidate. >> so speaking of that maturity of kenyan democracy, one of the most interesting and dramatic moments after the russian invasion of ukraine was the ambassador of kenya to the united nations saying we denounce this. we believe that borders are important, otherwise all of africa would be torn up. >> do you think that there's an opportunity for kenya to show leadership here? >> as our ambassador said, we

have in our continent communities on either sides of our borders if we were to draw the borders we would have one hell of a challenge in our hands. it was decided against without our input. in fact, in berlin, some good people sat down and drew lines all over the place and said this is our nation. we've come to respect that and as people who respect the u.n. charter and as people who believe in settling even when we have issues, we use peaceful means. >> but, are you changing the kenyan government's power or do you condemn the russian invasion of ukraine. we condemn war everywhere and we've been participating in peacekeeping worldwide. it does not say are you against the aggressor? you do not fault the ukrainians

for defending the country. there is also war, but there's an aggressor and victor in this country. >> you see, when a determination is made, and in a situation of war, war is war. everything happens in war. right? >> somebody starts the war. >> so that is why it is necessary for us to use the instruments that we have to defend the charter that we all signed up to. >> you are a chicken seller who became a president. in america, we are used to rags to riches stories, but in kenya for a long time it didn't seem that that was possible. one family dominated for a long time. do you think that gives you a particular perspective on your role? >> it does, in a very significant way because today we

are having a real conversation in kenya because i decided that we are going to change the development paradigm. we have employed to support people who have no access to credit before, people who have no security. it has brought a new dimension into government. the realization that the bottom matters, that the people lower down can actually make a significant contribution, if not phenomenal contribution to national development. >> president, pleasure to have you on. >> thank you, fareed. ? next on "gps," as the u.s. prepares to celebrate its birthday, i'll delve into a problem that's been at the heart of american democracy. money and politics. hey, stop, stop, stop. found it.

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and now for the last look. this week americans will celebrate their freedom and commemorate the signing of the declaration of independence. but it's also a good occasion on what in the american system could be changed. what if one could be so bold, might the founding fathers have gotten wrong? james madison, father of the constitution, was a genius. but consider one big error he made. madison dismissed the dangers of factions, what we might today call special interests because he believed in a large diverse country factions would remain small and coalitions would readily form to block any effort to undermine the common good. he didn't like or anticipate political parties hoping instead that legislators would be independent minded and shift coalitions from issue to issue.

in fact, parties formed and special interests became powerful because they offer something vital to american politics. money. when small groups of people can spend vast sums to elect politicians, the democratic process is perverted. usually there isn't outright corruption. but donors often expect something in return for their money. and that is why we have so many crazy tax credits and regulatory loopholes. each one is usually payback for some campaign donation. it is also why we can't make progress on a host of important issues. look at the nra which spends aggressively to keep the republican party in line against gun control. or consider the spending power of teachers unions which scares democrats from supporting education reforms. to be clear, there is nothing wrong with throwing money toward advocacy. spending to spread a message and

build grassroots support is the democratic process in action. but we have seen massive spending tilts the field and so congress placed restrictions on major campaign contributions since back in the days of teddy roosevelt. campaign finance regulations kept expanding until 1976 when in a watershed decision, the supreme court reversed the tide with buckley v. vallejo. the court struck down limits on how much a candidate could spend because under the first amendment, it argued, the spending was in service of advancing their message. in other words, money was a form of speech. this ruling unleashed the flood gates of money into politics. the citizens united case of 2010 extended the logic of buckley and opened the door to outside groups raising and spending

unlimited funds to elect preferred candidates so long as they are not coordinating with a candidate. that is all just free speech, supposedly. thanks to the ruling, spending on federal elections grew from under $2.5 billion in 1980 to $4.5 billion in 2020 and that is adjusted for inflation. and after citizens united there were calls to overturn the constitution. the amendments are difficult to pass and several throughout history were designed to overturn supreme court cases. but what really needs to be overturned is the older decision, buckley v. vallejo, that said money is speech. no other major democracy in the world believes this. in the united kingdom's last general election, parties were allowed to spend no more than about $25 million. and each candidate could spend another $15,000 or so. france's presidential candidates last year were limited to around $20 million. other countries may not cap spending but they restrict how the money could be used.

denmark and norway prohibit buying tv campaign ads which diminishes the need to raise money. last i checked, all of these countries were vibrant democracies. so one proposal for a constitutional amendment would affirm that congress and the states may regulate and set reasonable limits on the raising and spending of money by candidates and others to influence elections. this shouldn't be a partisan issue. the campaign finance laws that the court struck down passed with bipartisan support. citizens united initially seemed to help republican candidates. in 2012, 64% of outside spending benefited republicans versus 36% for democrats. but liberals learned how to play the game. in 2020 outside spending favored democratic candidates 56% to 44%. american democracy is drowning in cash. people feel they have lost any voice in the real process of

government. let's take the power away from special interest groups, lobbies and billionaires and give it back to the people. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. [music playing] subject 1: cancer is a long journey. it's overwhelming, but you just have to put your mind to it

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