but they're not saying anything else at the moment. and here is another las vegas story for you, at least one person got sick inside of a delta plane that was stuck on the tarmac there in triple digit heat. the temperature outside was 111 degrees. and there was no air-conditioning in the cabin. a passenger tells us what happened next. >> it was just like chaos at this point. there was a woman walking in the aisle. she looked like she was about to pass out. they put an oxygen mask on her. people had thrown up. people had fainted. you know, gone to the bathroom. >> but she said she got -- many people got sick from the heat including the flight crew and the flight to atlanta was ultimately cancelled. the airline has apologized and released this statement. delta teams are looking into the circumstances that led to uncomfortable temperatures inside of that cabin. and uncomfortable is an understatement. "cnn this morning" continues

right now. ♪ trump facing a barrage of developments in multiple federal criminal investigations. >> these are significant charges potentially with serious jail time. he knows this. >> the doj has become a weapon for the democrats. >> he is trying to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the entire justice system. >> the case could be indicted by the end of the week. >> in some ways it looks like a publicity stunt. >> i hope he doesn't get charged. i don't think it will be good for the country. >> history will hold him account for his actions. >> the michigan attorney general announcing charges against 16 people in the fake elector scheme. >> to reject the will of the voters was fraudulently and legally baseless. >> they could face decades in prison here. >> this was knowingly trying to break the law to overturn the will of the people. judge aileen cannon is pushing back on prosecutor's proposed mid december trial date. >> i'm protected by presidential records act. >> we can't keep dealing with this drama.

we can't keep dealing with the negativity. >> this is a golden opportunity for somebody in this field to step up. >> every time president trump goes up in the polls, they come after him. >> legally, pretty bad day. just another day in trump world. ♪ well, good tuesday morning, everyone. poppy is off this week. abby phillip is back here with me. we should note, legally it was a very bad day. and also a day that underscored just how much is surrounding the former president when it comes to potential criminal charges, including potential third and maybe even fourtinctments looming ahead. this one tied specifically to a target letter that was sent to the former president regarding efforts to overturn the 2020 election. "the wall street journal" and other sources now report that according to a source familiar witht letter, it cites at least three laws, incan colluding conspiracy to commit an defense against or defraud the united states and tampering with a witness. trump was defiant in a fox news town hall last night. he accused the justice

department of being a political weapon. >> we have a man the only way he can get elected is to weaponize the justice department, which he's gone around doing. i didn't know practically what a subpoena was. and grand juries and all of this. now i'm becoming an expert. i have no choice because we have to -- it's a disgrace. if you say something about an election, they want to put you in jail for the rest of your life. we have prosecutors that are evil people. these are evil people. deranged. i call them deranged. >> meanwhile in michigan the state's attorney general has brought felony charges against 16 fake electors who signed certificates falsely claiming that trump had won the election. and in florida, a federal judge is signaling that she may push back the start date of trump's criminal trial for allegedly mishandling classified documents. she suggested that mid december is actually too soon. we have full team coverage on all of these angles and these big developments. starting with paula reid, live outside of the federal

courthouse in ft. pierce, florida. elie honig and david axelrod and alexa griffin are standing by for the legal and political analysis of all of this. but, elie, i do want you to tell us what you are learning about these statutes from the target letter. >> yeah. so first of all, we're hearing that the potential charges here could include conspiracy to -- conspiracy to defraud the united states. so that's not a surprise. that tells us that jack smith is taking a very broad view of this. also could be a charge relating to deprivation of civil rights. what civil right could that be? well, that would be the right to a free and fair election. the right for everyone to have their votes counted. finally, we're learning that there could be a witness tampering charge that's a bit of a surprise, although donald trump does have also a bit of a history relating to witness tampering. what's also notable here, abby, is what's not apparently going to be part of the charges or at least what's not been listed in the target letter. there's no listing of an insurrection charge or an

incitement of insurrection charge. that's significant both for what's in there and what's not in there. it tells us, phil, jack smith is taking a very broad view of this and looking at this as a conspiracy. >> right. what conduct is the special prosecutor most likely focussed on at this point? >> yeah. so it's clear that jack smith is taking a very broad view here. he is looking at this as really a seven-state strategy focussed on these seven states, all of which went for joe biden but donald trump and people around him tried to steal at any cost. they started by pressuring state officials. most famously donald trump made that famous phone call to brad raffensperger, the secretary of state of georgia he urged him i want to find 11,780 votes. we know as part of this effort, donald trump and others were involved in the creation of these false elector certificates. this is the one from michigan you just talked about. there have now been state-level charges lodged against the actual people who signed and claimed to be the rightly elected electors for donald

trump. donald trump did not win michigan or those other state. we know when that failed, donald trump and others engaged in a pressure campaign aimed at the vice president, mike pence. he of course resisted. we know he's a witness in this case now. a very important witness. we know that when donald trump ultimately was frustrated that mike pence would not do the unconstitutional things donald trump wanted him to do, donald trump sent an inflammatory tweet while the riot was happening saying mike pence didn't have the courage to do what should have been done and that further inflamed the rioters. so that's the focus up until the actual date of january 6th. we know the final chapter here is when donald trump goes out on the ellipse, makes a speech to the rally and then people storm the capitol. although, according to the reporting, incitement of an insurrection is not among the charges that have been listed. >> that's what i was going to ask you. we have been trying to figure out what potential charges or talking to lawyers to figure out what potential charges could be based on what we have seen from the reporting from "the wall street journal" and others related to three statutes listed

in the target letter. i'm interested the complexity of the potential case if those are the potential charges pursued. >> yeah. if you look at deprivation of civil rights and conspiracy to commit an offense against the united states, those will cover largely the same ground. we'll talk about the whole scheme we just laid out. i think jack smith is doing this intentionally because he wants to be able to show that this is, in fact, a coordinated effort that wept across the country and that hit at the state, local and federal levels. i think also if we look at tampering with a witness, that's really important because first of all, who will this witness be? donald trump has a history from the mueller investigation on of trying to influence what witnesses say. that could be really damaging. that's a crime on its own and shows corrupt intent as to the broader picture here. so again, those i think are not surprising. it shows that jack smith is trying to view this as a whole and not getting into the more complicated, perhaps more inflammatory charges related to insurrection. >> elie honig. thank you. abby, you have the panel. >> let's go to paula reid live

outside the federal courthouse in ft. pierce, florida. lots of developments right now on multiple fronts. you have new reporting on the time crunch here that jack smith is facing with both of these investigations that he's in charge of. >> reporter: that's right, abby. we know one of the few things that special counsel jack smith has ever said publicly is that he wants a, quote, speedy trial in the mar-a-lago documents case. it's expected that if, if the former president is charged in the january 6th investigation, that they would also want a speedy trial. they would want to prosecute this case before the election. if that is the goal, they need to move it along pretty quickly. we know even if the former president is charged in the coming weeks, the special counsel's work will continue because we learned that they have reached out to multiple new witnesses in recent weeks. one of those witness interviews isn't scheduled until august. another one not even on the calendar. and we expect them to hear from additional witnesses as soon as tomorrow. we know even if trump is

charged, the special counsel's work is going to continue. so it does not appear that they're going to wait until they get to the end of the entire investigation to send former president trump a target letter and likely charge him. we know, of course the likely strategy from the trump team will be to delay, delay, delay. that's the strategy he has used for decades. and yesterday here in ft. pierce, for the first time we got to see just how receptive the federal judge overseeing the mar-a-lago documents case would be to these efforts to try to push this trial back. abby, it's interesting. she was open, definitely, to pushing this back. she said that the special counsel's suggestion of doing this in december, that that was a, quote, compressed timeline. look, cases like this, they just take more time. now, she was not willing, though, to leave it open indefinitely. she was really focussed on getting lawyers to give her more information about how much time they need to do the work necessary to prepare for trial. she didn't want to get into arguments about status as a candidate. she wants to know how long it

will take them to at least get to the place where they can maybe put a date on the calendar and it's unclear if that will be next year before the election or after. >> that is a very significant question that we'll all be looking for an answer for. paula reid, thank you very much. >> and now we're going to talk to the panel. i was to excited to see david axe axelrod's smiling face. i wanted to rush over here. i would never intentionally skip paula and her great reporting. alyssa, when you look at the former president's response to the target letter yesterday. he is the one who broke the news. his response yesterday what he said last night in iowa, how do you think he's taking this specific potential indictment. >> well, listen, he clung to some of the same lines he's been using. i'm being indicted for you. trying to say we have a weaponized department of justice. but for a while the trump team said they're most legally worried about the documents

case, the mar-a-lago classified documents because it's much more of a straight-forward case. the politics of relitigating january 6th is something they're very worried about. this means for weeks if not months on end we'll talk about his worst day in office. people will relive that footage and officer fanone will talk about that day. i guarantee he is worried especially as there is a primary under way. he is running actively for president right now. listen, he's going to keep using the same lines, but this is a factor for him. >> it's such an interesting point because it strikes me that, david, this is like a trap door, not just for trump but for the entire republican party. when you hear ron desantis' reaction to jake tapper to this question, he is twisting himself into a pretzel. but at the end of the day, it seems likely that where he and others are going to end up is actually having to defend the actions leading up to january 6th, defend january 6th?

>> that's the game of twister they're playing because the republican electorate is where the republican electorate is. i saw a poll this week and 55% of republicans said they thought donald trump would be their strongest candidate, even after all of this. there is devotion to him. and you see the lies he's been using. they're not just lies. they're fundamental to his strategy. his strategy now is built around these indictments. he has made himself the victim on behalf of his constituents. and you know, i keep saying, i don't know whether these bricks that are added to his load with each of these indictments are kryptonite or energy packs in the republican race. and that's what remains to be seen. is there too much? at some point do they add up to the point where people say i love him but it's too much trouble. that's what we don't know. >> and what's stunning is to elie's reporting and others, there's no guarantee that any of these cases will be litigated ahead of the election. so the fact that the republicans

in the field running against donald trump in a primary seem to not be taking him on directly, not criticizing him, not using these indictments to challenge him, it's a flawed strategy. it's like they're waiting in the wings for him to be locked up. but we don't know that's ever going to happen or at least not ahead of the election. >> can i make a larger point because i think the trap door is not just for the republican party. it's for the country. the strategy that they have employed and trump insisted on is to denigrate the whole process. to call the fbi corrupt. to call the department of justice corrupt. this has a corrosive impact, not just -- it's not just an effect on one election. it's an effect on our democracy. i think there will be long-standing implications of that. >> that's a really good point. we view things in a day by day basis. what does this mean for poll numbers. we have the answer by the way of what this will do to trump's numbers inside the primary. i don't think there's ever going to be a tipping point. people think there would be a

tipping point for seven or eight years now. when speaker kevin mccarthy comes out and says they saw trump's poll numbers were going up and now leading joe biden and therefore that is why they brought -- that's -- a, there's no evidence. b, it's based on absolutely nothing at all. c, he knows that's completely absurd. >> he's the speaker of the house. >> to your point, there are long-term implications of doing things like that that are much bigger than whether or not your front-runner -- >> i want to make this point. people can interrupt it as partisan point. it is not. i would feel the same way under any circumstance. what kevin mccarthy is doing really is a betrayal of his responsibilities as one of the leading officers in the united states government. he does know better. he's doing it for political reasons. and it has real impact on the quality of our democracy. >> and we know that because we know kevin mccarthy's words after january 6th. i'm done with this guy. he bears responsibility.

yet he's still undermining this. >> most of these people said different things right after january 6th. it's interesting to see them really backtracking now. but, david and alyssa, don't go anywhere. we have new reporting on what's been going on behind the scenes with the trump team and the legal strategy that they're planning to fight back against other possible indictments. michigan secretary of state will join us live after felony charges were brought against fake electors who falsely claimed trump won the 2020 election in her state. that's next. ♪ [city ambience snds] [car screech] [car door slam] [camera shutter sfx]

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♪ and the company that's getting us there? moderna. this changes everything. ♪ for the very first time suspects have been charged in a 2020 fake elector scheme. 16 republicans in michigan are charged with trying to help president trump overturn the election results. the group met in lansing back in december of 2020 and they signed certificates falsely claiming that trump won the state and that they were the rightful electors. they were turned away from the michigan state house while the actual group of democratic electors was meeting inside. and an audio recording obtained by cnn early last year captured one of the fake electors boasting that the trump campaign

directed the entire operation. >> see the electors, the trump campaign, asked us to do that under a lot of scrutiny. >> this is the first time any of the fake electors have been charged with a crime related to that election scheme, which is of course, also being investigated by special counsel jack smith. joining us now on all of this is michigan secretary of state jocelyn benson. the state's highest-ranking election official. and someone who has also spoken to jack smith in the january 6th probe. secretary benson, thank you for joining us this morning. i do want to ask you about what you just heard there, what we just played. a fake elector saying the trump campaign asked us to do that. but i wonder, is there a case here that they could make that they were misled or that these were just provisional, just in case they won other legal challenges. do you see them making those arguments and that there's evidence to back that up? >> well, certainly a lot of

arguments are going to be made, but i think the evidence really shows that this was an actionable well thought-out plan. the affidavit suggests individuals were led into the basement of the party headquarters and some chose, including a former secretary of state, chose not to be a part of it, which should havbeen a sign that something was awry. she had to then be replaced. and so there's a number of pieces to suggest that these individuals were very aware of what they were trying to do, attempting to do. then submitting the documents to the national archives through which they came to my office. also indicates that this wasn't just a ceremony. this was actually an attempt to lie to the government about where the michigan electoral votes should be al gated. and there simply has to be culpability for anyone involved from those who actually committed the acts to in my view anyone who helped organize them. >> to that end, there were probably other people involved

if the trump campaign was involved, people like rudy giuliani, even the rnc chairwoman, ronna mcdaniel. are you surprised that more people at higher levels weren't also part of the charges here? >> the attorney general in michigan has said this is part of an on going investigation. so, i think this is the first step, perhaps the first in an on going effort to not just seek justice for those actively involved at the front end of this scheme. but everyone involved. and so there may be additional charges filed in the future. we'll see how the case progresses. my office is going to fully cooperate with all legal efforts to bring everyone who ran afoul of the law and tried to subvert legitimate presidential election, bring them to justice. >> one of those 16 fake electors went on to become the co-chair of the michigan republican party. she accused the state's ag of a personal vin debt and the added this was part of a coordinated effort to stop trump.

what's your response to those accusations? >> well, first, there was a coordinated effort. it was a coordinated effort to overturn the will of the voters, not just in michigan but in many other states. that's a coordinated effort we have been consistently not just shedding a light on but fighting over the last several years. secondly, when, as the affidavit suggests, there's overwhelming evidence the law was violated particularly with regards to elections, the attorney general -- she said this yesterday, has a responsibility to bring charges. it would be a political act to not bring charges in the face of overwhelming evidence. and so i think what you have here is the facts and the law driving the case forward. and any individuals who are part of an effort to overturn an election should, in my view, face justice so we ensure it doesn't happen again. >> special counsel jack smith is also, as everyone knows, actively investigating january 6th, the fake elector's plot as well. you spoke to federal prosecutors back in march. i wonder, did they ask you about

the fake elector plot? and did they ask you about anything that has not yet been made public? >> well, there's a lot that was discussed. and i don't want to compromise the investigation itself, but i will say just as my testimony before the january 6th congressional committee really emphasized, there's a federal -- a need for the federal government to look at the way in which the instances we experienced in michigan happen in other states. and get to the bottom of the facts in every state. but in addition to that, these actions to overturn an election, to lie to legislatures an voters about the accuracy of the presidential election in michigan and elsewhere, led to actual threats and violence. not just at the capitol on january 6th but in other parts of the country as well including outside my home. so that i think also there's a focus there and should be in my view about the way in which this effort was not simply on its own an effort to overturn an election but an effort that

generated violence, threats and in the tragedy at our u.s. capitol, a debt mental effect on our democracy and the law enforcement officers defending it that way. >> you said in the past there has been no real accountability for former president trump spreading misinformation about the election and you added that without that accountability we must expect to see it continue. do you think that a likely indictment for trump here would send a message and have an impact? >> i think any time there are consequences for breaking the law, it has an impact on those considering doing it in the future. and so, we need to consider not just that but what the path is if there are no consequences, despite overwhelming evidence the law is not broken, that sends a signal. i believe that that's not what our democracy is about.

and i believe that's the wrong signal to send as we go into what by all accounts is going to be another contentious presidential election. >> michigan secretary of state jocelyn benson, thank you for your time this morning. >> thank you for having me. we want to bring back in the panel. elie, this is probably simplistic question for lawyers like yourself, but can you explain to me state charges versus what the special counsel is doing? do these things not run into one another? >> michigan charges will be a subset what we will see from jack smith. i think jack smith will charge given what we just discussed about what we learned about the likely federal charges are, i think all of the fake electors from all of the seven states will become part of jack smith's case. i don't mean to suggest jack smith will criminally charge those fake electors. but the scheme itself will become part of jack smith's case. i think it's worth noting how quickly things change because as of 24 hours ago right now, nobody had been charged for

anything relating to january 6th and the coup attempt other than the people who physically stormed the capitol or who directly supervised that, directly involved in the physical storming of the capitol. now we have these fake electors charged with fraud crimes and seems quite clear that donald trump is on the road to catching a charge of his own from the federal system. >> yeah. alyssa, the secretary of state brought up something i think maybe gets overlooked here which is that she faced real threats. and there was an anecdote where trump allegedly said that she should be tried for treason and in a white house meeting around the time they were discussing these lies around the election, there were real consequences and threats of violence, even beyond the capitol. >> i think people forget that. i think of cassidy hutchinson, who cooperated with doj, she got many threats to her life. she had to have security around her for a period of time. a number of people who spoke out, you know, all got the messages and the things you would expect to.

but she hit on something very important we can't lose sight of. this could happen again. donald trump very well may be the republican nominee. he very may well lose to joe biden or whoever the democratic nominee is again and then what happens? there have been efforts under way to try to get loyalists to him and to secretary of state jobs. try to get people elected at the state house level so they can challenge election results in the future. and i don't think that our democracy has necessarily healed or prepared from this day on january 6th, 2021. >> there's a more serious question which is what if he wins? because it's very clear that if he wins he's going to try to vacate all of these charges and then no accountability for all of these schemes. so, you know, there are big worries here. but you asked a question i think was really important. these people who executed this alleged scheme in michigan, as well as the people who stormed the capitol, some percentage of them did it because they were told -- they testified to this, the president of the united states said there was fraud

here. we were cheated. democracy was -- and they acted on what they were told. and that goes to the fundamental point we were making before. what is the effect of all of this on the nature of our democracy, the quality of our democracy, the ability of it to carry forward? >> yeah. everybody stay with us. we have a lot more on this. we also learned that donald trump's advisers spent yesterday morning trying to see if anyone else had received a target letter from the special counsel. so what is their strategy now? we'll get into that next. he snores like an angry rhino. you've never heard an angry rhino. baby i hear one every night... every night. okay. i'll work on that. save $1200 on our most popular sleep number 360 smart bed. plus free home delivivery when u add an adjustable base. shop now only at sleep p number there are currently more than 750,000 unfilled cybersecurity jobs in the u.s. the google unfilled cybersecurity cybersecurity certificate was made to fill that gap that's kping us all safe. when migraine strikes, you're faced with a oice. tradeoffs of treating? rie

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♪ this morning donald trump and his team will continue strategizing ways to defend him against potential charges in the special counsel probe of his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. trump down played legal cha challenges while he complained in iowa. you had great reporting over the course of the last 15 or 16 hours. but what they're doing this morning as they head in after that iowa visit, in terms of preparation for another potential indictment. >> reporter: right. well, they are continuing to

call lawyers and allies and trying to figure out what exactly the potential case against the former president may look like. we also know that they are leaning into this politically. we saw donald trump's campaign blast off a fundraising email last night. we have seen them do this in the previous two indictments against him. of course, he's not been indi indicted on this case yet. as for how donald trump is feeling, it's interesting to note that after his lawyers received this target letter on sunday night, donald trump kept it unusually quiet. he did not share it widely within members, within his inner circle. and i think it shows that this is weighing on him. he recognizes how serious these charges are and, of course, as he said before, he does not want to be indicted. and he echoed this sentiment during a town hall with sean hannity last night. let's listen to that exchange. >> no. it bothers me. it bothers me for everybody in this incredible sold out

audience. and it bothers you. i got the letter on sunday night. think of it. i don't think they've ever sent a letter on sunday night. and they're in a rush because they want to interfere. it's interference with the election. it's election interference. never been done like this in the history of our country. and it's a disgrace. >> reporter: so, phil, he said -- he admitted that this bothers him. but he also put on a much more defiant message in that town hall with sean hannity. but as we know and from covering the past two indictments, the public face donald trump is putting on is quite different from the one he is feeling behind closed doors. he is very concerned about this. and i think we're going to continue to see that throughout the next couple days as we see whether or not an indictment is coming. phil? >> elalayna treene. thank you. our panel is back with us. alyssa, i want to start with you. from a legal perspective, this is obviously very serious. do you see smart, coherent legal

strategy, not a public relations one, but do you see the trump world really getting their hands around the legal liability here? >> i mean, donald trump's challenge frankly has been retaining quality legal counsel. when you don't pay your lawyers on time, when you have so many different cases you're dealing with and also somebody known to go on air and undermine your own case, it's challenging to retain good legal counsel. but, to elena's point, he will still try to win the political war around this and public relations war. he will try to fund raise off of they're coming after me. it's an attack on you. it probably works in a primary. i don't see anyone standing up and challenging him in a major way with the exception of a few of the candidates that are polling lower, but it's radio active in a general election. that stuns me when i hear kevin mccarthy defend him. if he's the nominee, this is winning him no voters. losing him more in a general election. >> that's been my biggest question throughout in terms of the other republican primary

candidates refusing to attack or take this head on. i don't know what's going to change at any point. but we were talking about during the break that you can write kind of the progression of the day when an indictment letter comes out. you know exactly how trump is going to respond. you know exactly how kevin mccarthy is going to respond as we head into potential number three, maybe with number four hanging out there. general election question. the end game here and what is it? and maybe i'm giving too much credit that there is one other than win and -- >> first of all, you asked just to build into that, you ask what his legal strategy is? his legal strategy is to try and force this into a general election and hope in a race with joe biden that questions about biden and his age and so on will be such that he can win. biden always says don't compare me to the all mighty, compare know the alternative. trump is counting on the same theory. so that is what the theory is. but there's no doubt that among voters outside of the republican base this aggregation of charges

is a very, very serious problem for him. and i don't know what the solution is. but in terms of his public -- you call it public relations strategy. i think part of what he is doing is a legal strategy. got a jury down in florida. i'm sure they're hearing some of this. and all he needs is one juror to say, i think they're being unfair to this guy. and he gets off. so, look, we heard january 6th committee hearings. a lot of what we -- we're seeing unfold here was revealed and disclosed in those hearings. i'm sure jack smith has more. trump knows he's got -- there are a lot of facts against him here. and he's pushing all the buttons, trying to get out of jail here. >> one of the buttons he's pushing is attacking jack smith. calling him deranged. >> there's no call for that. jack smith has done nothing but handle this job professionally and in line with the book. he's done everything by the book. believe me, i'll be first to call out a prosecutor who does

not. so those attacks on prosecutors are nothing new for donald trump. incredibly damaging and all we can do is call them out. this is where politics and law are going to collide over the next 18, 16 months until the election. and there's -- if there's one overarching legal strategy it's to delay. that's donald trump's best bet. he got some good news on that yesterday from the mar-a-lago case where the judge did not set a trial date. she might. she might set it soon. >> was it good news, though? seems like she had issues with december but not also seemed to dismiss the idea of let's wait until after the election. >> i think what she resisted is i'm not going to now in july of 2023 set a trial date for after november of 2024. i think what's likely to happen is she will set a trial date. it will be later than december but it been before the election. trial dates move. it's like an airport delay. move you back 45 minutes at a time until next thing you know it's too late. >> talk about a giant constitutional loophole. run and win the presidency and

get out of jail free. >> you make it seem a lot easier than i think it is. david, alyssa, elie, thank you, guys. appreciate it. trump supporters say all of this will only help him in the polls. harry enton is here to show us what happened to his numbers after the first two indictments. and treasury secretary janet yellen says she does not expect the economy to enter a recession. we'll break down the data. ththat's coming up next. you're in love... steve? ...with a laundry y detergent. new gain flings. seriously good scentnt. - this is my coffee shop. and that's me and my custom shirt from custom ink. this week we moved into a new,igger space, and brought another employee. to celebrate, i ordered new branded gear for the whole tea everythingas so easy to make with custom ink's design lab. i just chose my products, added our logo, and placed my order. our new gear really helps us look and feel like a team.

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i just know i'm going to be able to surf again. that's why we're here... to help make it happen. ♪ treasury secretary janet yellen says that she does not expect a recession to hit the united states. her comments come about a week after she wouldn't rule out one. and she's not the only economist to say that a recession and those fears are now dwindling. cnn chief business correspondent christine romans is here with us. and christine, the economy is chugging along. and we are still waiting for this recession.

>> good morning. this has been the longest recession watch in memory. you know, last year the conventional wisdom was there would be a recession in 2023. now, they're pushing that into 2024 if at all. goldman sachs says maybe 20% chance of a recession down from 25%. we saw retail sales that are growing, yesterday growing for the third month in a row. there have been all these dire predictions of a consumer that's going to be tapped out. but so far the consumer is still moving along here. let's listen to what the treasury secretary said about a so-called soft landing yesterday. >> growth is slowed, but our labor market continues to be quite strong. i don't expect a recession. i think that we're on a good path to bringing inflation down. >> so, you know, just six months ago you would be in the minority if you said we would have a soft landing. now more people are starting to say that could be possible. look at the stock market.

the dow and the s&p are just 5% away from record highs. and the highest levels of the year. so investors are not seeing some sort of recession on the horizon. and you heard the treasury secretary there talk about inflation. i wanted to show you one of the big complaints has been that wages have been rising, but that our paycheck is more than made up for by the higher costs of everything you're buying. that's finally turned. you now have wages growing faster than consumer prices, inflation. and that's something that people will start to feel. so, i think there are storm clouds on the horizon, no question. more fed rate hikes. you'll have student loan bills coming due in a couple month miss thatch could ding consumer spending a little bit, but those storm clouds on the horizon right now it's sunny skies. >> when you dig into those numbers you look at things unemployment, the lower end of the economic spectrum, those people are struggling with higher prices but it's trending

in the right direction and the jobs for african-american unemployment is at historic lows. >> that's something you heard the white house talk about and some of these really important demographic numbers within the labor market. we'll be watching to see if the labor market can remain strong. there's still a lot of tightening, right. the fed has been raising interest rates. we haven't felt all that quite yet. that may be put a damper on the job market. >> this is recession bartender pour me another. >> romans, thank you, my friend. how are republicans in congress reacting to the news that donald trump could be indicted again? probably used to it. defiance and some optimism? listen to this. >> every time they indict him his numbers go up. >> donald trump's the leader of our party. and donald trump is going to beat joe biden in 2024 for a second time. why are they doing everything they can to prevent him from being on the ballot in 2024? i'll tell you why, because donald trump will win in 2024.

and the left -- they're scared [ bleep ]. >> as you just heard, some republicans think the target letter sent by special counsel jack smith will help the former president in his 2024 presidential bid. data say? cnn's senior data reporter joins us now harry enton. what does it say? >> let's take the republican side of the aisle first. look at this. pre-new york indictment, post. 46% in those national polls. pre. post, look at that, jumped up to 53%. it helped him. but the florida indictment, right, in terms of the classified documents, didn't actually help him. he actually dropped a few percentage points. but basically i think the main thing to take away from this is republican voters didn't really care about certainly the florida indictment, the new york one might have helped him. >> the idea that -- the letter doesn't guarantee that trump will be indicted for the third time this year. we know the first two indictments had an effect. obviously showing the effect at this point.

what are we looking for next? >> yeah. let's look at the general election. and i think this gives you an understanding here. which is you might have thought, okay, in republican primary, it might have helped him. what about in the general election? look at this, no change. 43% in the polls against biden. 43 post new york. florida, 43% pre. 44% post. right within that margin of error. i'll note, what is the one thing that might, in fact, impact trump's standing republicans and the general election? >> i would love to hear the answer to this question. >> january 6th actually made an impact. his approval -- job approval rating as president on january 5th was 43% overall. it dropped to 39% on january 20th when he left office. among republicans, 89%, very high, 83% still very high. but a clear drop. so we'll see if this potential third indictment could, in fact, have an impact. we have to wait and see. >> thank you, harry.

numbers matters. >> you matter two, phil. >> thank you. appreciate you. trump is accusing the doj of serving as a weapon for democrats as he braces for a possible third indictment now. we'll talk to the lead counsel at one of trump's impeachment trials about the legal trouble that he could be facing next. this is americican infrastructure, a prime target for cyberattacks. but the same ai-powered security al defends these services for everyone who lives here. ♪ - i got the cabin for three days. it's gonna be sweet!

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♪ it's been our story all morning. former president appears close to facing a third indictment. he revealed he is a target in the special counsel investigation of et to overturn the 2020 election. "the wall street journal" and other sources report the special counsel's target letter cites at least three statutes, including deprivation of rights, conspiracy to commit an offense or dethe united states and tampering with a witness. laura coats joins us with david sean, served as the lead counsel of one of trump's impeachment trials. in terms of your reaction to the three statutes that are being reported to have been in the target letter, what does that tell you? >> first of all, just for -- by way of background, it's informant. they encourage the prosecutors to give the target some notice. but in an indictment, it wouldn't be limited to whatever is in the target letter.

it's not required. what i would think in this case if i were a betting person, and i am not, the charges would be something like this. conspiracy for sure under section 371 and that's a general conspiracy statute. here it's probably something like related to the false electors and maybe section 1001, false statement. after that probably an obstruction charge and that's this defrauding the government. the conspiracy charge would require defrauding the government. in these cases they have to show, first of all, under the obstruction harj, that section 1512 a 20-year count, show that he acted corruptly and also have to charge in the conspiracy count that he believed that he lost the election and acted accordingly. i think the big thing to turn up the heat politically and sort of criminally would be if they charged insurrection under 2383, and i say turn up the heat. that's a ten-year count instead

of a 20-year count. the sort of juice, you might say, they think would be that the statute provides a person convicted under that for insurrection couldn't hold public office and that relates to the 14th amendment section 3. that has to be weighed against the qualifications for president in article 2 section 1. i am not sure that's a gimme anyway. i think those are some of the charges you would see. >> laura's here and she understands everything you are saying. so we are good on the panel from a technical perspective. >> i loved it. i loved the technicalities. we have to get into the nitty-gritty details as we get closer to a possible indictment. i do want you to react to what david said, which is on this idea of -- that the intent here, we know that jack smith has been looking at trump's mindset. so as a layperson, explain to me what he is looking for and how

he would prove it as it relates to what trump intended when it comes to these january 6th charges. >> every lawyer may think they are a no to all, but we are not mind readers. the way to get to the intent is direct evidence or statements made or circumstantial evidence or contextual clues about what the person said. we have seen through the january 6th investigation committee witnesses that several have talked about his direct statements about believing he had lost the election but wanting to have a different course of action in the public square, nonetheless. so that will be a part of the conversation. david's right in terms of the possibilities here. the world kind of is the legal oyster according to whatever evidence has come in from the grand jury for someone like jack smith, special counsel. you had the january 6th hearings, but also, as one of the charms laid out there potentially the target letter,

tampering with a witness that. should be a red flag that tells you that somebody who has been meaningful to this investigation had a kind of roadblock where somebody tried to either interfere with their testimony, undermine it in some way, threaten or otherwise intimidate. for that that to be outlined suggests there is something cooperating or a witness that they actually need who is not able or was not able to fully have the opportunity to speak freely. so that's real concern. but as far as how you understand all of this, a lot of this, of course, the conspiracy statements, the defraud, all these buzzwords legally when it comes down to it are three buckets. what happened before january 6th and post-election, what happened on january 6th, and what happened following january 6th for the investigation. the theme and connective tissue here is the behavior, the planning and the intent. but trump is not unlike many

other defendants where you have to prove one's intent and then intent--based crime. it's not suddenly everybody else is able to have their mind read. you have to use different evidence and surrounding evidence to lead a jury to believe that you have proven beyond a reasonable doubt that in spite of all common sense, all evidence available, all statements of a reasonable person, one's head was in the sand nonetheless. that's the course of action here. >> we have a minute left, so we can't do statutes, as much as i love them and am impressed by them. from a legal team perspective, do you feel like the president's legal team has to get bigger? are they set up to address something like this should it come to fruition? >> well, i think that he needs some hard-core criminal defense lawyers. he doesn't have that yet, but he will. if the charges are brought in d.c., you will see a stronger team marshaled. that's going to be a

high-profile case. i am no expert politically, i am not an expert on anything, frankly, but if they bring the insurrection charge, i think that the political fallout will be huge on that. i don't say that auto should guide whether they bring it or not, although it should be a factor considered in, but i don't think in any way, shape or form they fairly should be able to prove that brandon burke factors under the insurrection charge, encouraging violence, intending to cause violence, knowing it would likely produce violence, that sort of thing. if you parse his speech and surrounding factors tahat wouldn't be a fair charge. the wild card is the jury. >> he needs some lawyers who drink constitutional questions for breakfast. david and laura, thank you both very much. our coverage on cnn continues right now. >> i didn't know practically what a subpoena was