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good evening everyone i'm laura coates. breaking news, hurricane idalia has intensified over the warm waters of the gulf of mexico and is now forecast to become an extremely dangerous category four storm, before it makes landfall in a matter of just hours. the storm is packing 110 miles per hour winds and is already causing flooding in some of the coastal areas. our teams are out across the entire storm zone, chad myers is in the cnn weather center with the very latest forecast. carlos suarez is in tampa, brian todd is in tallahassee, and gloria pazmino is in clearwater. let's go right now to chad myers who is in the weather center.

chad, governor ron desantis is now saying that the florida gulf coast area has not seen a storm of a dahlias magnitude since the 1800s. it is now forecast to be an extremely dangerous category four hurricane when it makes landfall. could -- put all this into context for us. >> sure, from appalachia, all the way to the big bend is what he is talking about. there you go, that's the area right there that he is talking about and that is the area that has not seen anything this significant in a long time. remember, we did have the cat four, then five in matthew and st. michael. that was a big storm, it was impressive, storm but not on the order of what we are talking about on this coast. so, what we are talking about is likely a record low pressure making landfall here. likely a record category, which would be category four. a record storm surge, possibly up to 16 feet. so a lot of things going on

here, a lot of moving parts and an intense, deepening storm with an eye that has been very impressive for now, it seems like five hours. that means the storm is rapidly intensify. i don't have an update on the 1:10, to 1:15 it. we are waiting on an airplane to get in there. in fact, one of our reporters will be on that airplane, be able to report back to us live. 130 miles per hour is the forecast at landfall, slightly after sunrise coming up here in about eight hours. here you go, here is the eye of the storm. something else that has just popped up, here a tornado watch for these cells that are coming onshore on florida's west coast. some of them are spinning, some of them will have waterspouts, some of them will have tornadoes. that is the likelihood. the big threat here, after the storm surge, is just how far and how inland this wind field will be. 110 mile per hour winds all the way across the florida georgia line.

that is an entire area right through here that will have thousands, tens of thousands of trees knocked down because of this wind. power lines downed, roofs damaged, that is simply, almost an ef1 tornado. that is how much damage it is going to be in this large swath. even hurricane conditions to brunswick, to jekyll island, and even towards amelia islands. this is going to be a big wind maker, a big surge maker, and then, as we work our way into tomorrow, we are going to see the potential for very, very heavy rainfall. and possibly heavy rainfall where people evacuated to. it could see six inches of rainfall in these spots, that could cause freshwater flooding, not the salt water flooding that we're worried about pushing on shore into st. marks and towards -- and possibly into sierra kyi. this is an area that we have to watch out for, if we think about south carolina we're not talking about low country here, we're talking about some of the topography here.

that rain is going to run off of these creeks, streams, down the hills, and we could see flash flooding from this just as another aspect of this storm. >> hurricane, tornado, storm surge. flash flooding. there is a lot to take in. chad myers, we'll keep following this. thank you so much. cnn's gloria pazmino is out in the storm tonight in clearwater. gloria, in the past hour you are experiencing some pretty strong winds. you are looking behind you right now and they seem to still be there. what are the conditions like? >> well, laura, as you said an hour ago i was explaining to you that this sayi>> well, laurn hour ago i was explaining to you that this saying just comes in waves. we are in the middle of a wave right now, the rain is coming down and that wind is just sweeping right through this area where we are standing. it i idalia making its way to the western part of the state. chad myers was just describing everything that this thing is

carrying. tornadoes, possible wind damage, the storm surge, all of that is what we are watching out for here in clearwater beach. now, clearwater beach is part of pinellas county. this area is about two and a half miles long, there is a big, long beach that is right in front of us in this direction. it is very flat and that is important. what does that mean? it is flat and that ocean is shallow. you can walk about half a mile into it and the water might just be barely up to your waist. so that creates a conditions for storm surge. another key factor here that we have been talking about all day long, the gulf of mexico. the waters which this storm is traveling over right now are extremely warm. those warm waters are acting like gasoline for this hurricane. it is making a gain to strength

and speed as it moves forward, and that motion as is directly in front of us, if it comes anywhere where we are right now, the expectation is that we could see anywhere from 4 to 7 feet of storm surge. a little over five feet tall, so any amount of water that is more than that is obviously going to be catastrophic and extremely damaging. now, people here for the most part have heeded the evacuation warnings, but i do want to show you this presidential tower that is directly behind me. you can see that a lot of the apartments are completely dark, probably meaning that people got out, but there are a few people who are clearly still at home. their lights are hawn, there was a couple that was walking by early this morning who told us that they were going to ride this out. hopefully that is going to be okay, hopefully they will be safe. but, as we were just telling you a minute ago with every passing minute conditions just

worsen significantly. the water really coming down now and we expect conditions to just continue to worsen with every passing hour as we await the arrival and landfall of this hurricane, as is said to cause historic damage to the western portion of the state. laura? >> gloria pazmino, thank you for keeping us so well informed. there's a lot more to take in. cnn's carlos suarez is in tampa for us tonight. carlos, what are the conditions like where you are in the ground in tampa? >> well, laura, we are to the east of gloria so we are in tampa bay where in hillsboro cof the tter part of the last couple of hours. we are keeping a close eye on the bay wall here behind me because it is now come back to a level that we really have not seen since earlier this afternoon, in large part

because the next high tide is around 4:00 this morning. so, going into this morning, the concern for emergency officials here in hillsboro county is that we're going to see all of this rain over the next 6 to 12 hours as the storm continues to move north, just off shore here. it is going to start pushing all of that water into the tampa bay and then, once that -- those two things happen and high tides happen at four in the morning, then we get a king tide later in the afternoon. that is when we believe we're going to start seeing some of that significant flooding. we're talking about anywhere, as gloria mentioned there, anywhere between 4 to 6 feet of a storm surge. so, going into the late hours, emergency officials out here were really hoping that, at this point in the, game for the folks who did not evacuate, the low lying areas of hillsboro county as well as pinellas county out to the west, their hope right now is that wherever you are, stay put. if you come out tomorrow and see that some of the rain has passed by, the storm is

obviously to the north of us. they don't want folks to become complacent and start heading out thinking that, really, everything is over with because, we're not expected to see possible storm surge associated with this hurricane until late in the morning throughout the afternoon as you can probably tell. the rain has picked throughoute afternoon as you can probably tell. the rain has picked up here, the concern is still the flooding and at least when we're talking about the tampa bay area. having spent the better part of the last 12 hours here, just about everyone that we came across it tonight, and everyone that we spoke to, said that they did not think that things were going to be that bad. so they made that decision to go ahead and stay put. they are not going to move inland, they are not going to evacuate or go to one of these hurricane shelters. that is, of course, a message that emergency officials did not want to hear, although you can understand why. this time, last year or around last year rather, we were in this very same location as hurricane ian was scheduled to

make landfall somewhere around the tampa bay area. of course, that storm ended up passing it to the south of hillsboro county. so, a lot of the folks that we came across, they said look. last year we get ready for a very powerful storm, we thought it was going to make a direct hit and it ended up really moving to the south of us. we saw some flooding, but it really wasn't that bad. so it seems like they're taking that kind of attitude with respect to this hurricane, though that is something that emergency officials wish was not the case. but, we will see how things shake out in the next couple of hours. laura? >> carlos suarez, thank you so much. quite a gamble for some people to take. the national weather service says that hurricane idalia will likely be an unprecedented event for many locations in the florida big bend. cnn's brian todd i first feel te initial bands of it. meaning, you are going to get intense wind and rain and then it might back off. that is what has done, now not to drop coming off on me as you

can see, but a few minutes ago we were getting pounded with rain, a lot of it. and we expect that, of course, a two reintensify in the next few hours along with the wind that is going to come with this now category four hurricane. it's going to come ashore not too far from where i'm standing. here's the problem with tallahassee and the vulnerability here in tallahassee. you can see behind me, again, not much rain coming down now. not any rain, really. but this is a town of a lot of low hanging trees, there are lot of trees in this town overall that are vulnerable to being knocked down but a lot of low hanging trees, a lot of very dense vegetation around here in tallahassee. it's going to mean power lines being knocked down, it's going to be streets being blocked, we see covering the hurricane a few years ago when it was hard to navigate through this town because of all the downed trees and power lines and that storm was not quite as intense as this one. so, this is really not voting too well for the city of tallahassee in the next few hours. so, at least it was a little bit inland from where this hurricane is going to come ashore. we just pulled out of the town

of st. marks, about 20 miles south of here because that town is going to probably get to at least nine feet of storm surge. when that happens the issue there is that that town lies between two rivers. the st. marks and the wichita river. when those two rivers converge, right near that town, it is very low lying town. we have also got the apalachee bag, which has never seen a hurricane of this strength in recorded history. so, we have got the history coming up that, by we could be cut off if we hadn't pulled out of the town. we're going to try to get back to that town as early as we can tomorrow morning. there are emergency evacuation orders for the residents of st. mark's, a lot of people did heed those orders, but still several people stayed behind and emergency officials are

saying that, if you do that, you've got to have provisions for at least three or four days because you could become isolated. again, st. marks is really now in danger of becoming isolated to because it does, it is so susceptible to flooding. even when there is a storm, not of the size of a hurricane. so wary of got to try to get back to st. marks as soon as we can tomorrow morning, but we may not be able to get there. we are going to try to mobilize as soon as we can. again, the bands of wind and rain are heading this way towards tallahassee. a lot of power crews. we've seen a station near her towards -- as we pull out of st. marks. the emergency evacuation is something in florida and, like everywhere else, they cannot physically pull you out of your house, but they have gone door to door. we have been told by emergency officials in the county, where st. marks is, that they did send deputies door to door to knock on doors to try to get people believe. several people did heed the warnings, they said they got a good response down there in the coastal areas. some people are starting to get a sense of how serious this is going to be.

but, laura, time has pretty much run out. this place is about to get inundated in the next few hours. >> it's so powerful to see the image, the calm before the storm. just seeing how it ebbs and flows. tallahassee is a huge college town, by the way, as well. schools coming back to session, we can only hope those students are safe as well. brian todd, thank you so much. hurricane idalia is now expected to slam into florida as an extremely dangerous category four storm. let's go to st. mark's, florida, where public information officer for the ocala county sheriff's office, jared jeffery arturo joins us now. officer, thank you for being here because ocala county could actually see some of the worst storm surge. are people still evacuating tonight or is it too late at this point? >> well, it certainly is not too late, depending on where you are out and where you are intending to go to. but we are getting to that point.

we very much anticipate that we're going to start feeling the sustained effects of tropical storm force winds in the next two hours. when that occurs, it is going to be too late for citizens to leave. you know, our message largely to army community right now is that it may be too late for you to, go you've got to hunker down and hold tight and stay put until the storm passes and were able to get everything cleared up. >> the mother in may is just thinking about what it is like for those who may have no choice, or children to shelter in place. thinking about trying to keep everyone in that household calm, children included. for those who are sheltering in place, what should they keep in mind and will first responders be able to get to them if they need it? >> unlikely in the immediate future, once we get sustained tropical storm force winds, our emergency services have to shut down because it's unsafe for our responders and vehicles to be on the roadway. at that point, we are not

really able to respond until the storm leaves out and were able to get the roadways clear. so, it is hard to anticipate when we are going to be able to return to normal circumstances because we know that we are going to feel effects from the storm and likely major effects from the storm. but, every ten or 15 miles matters right now. whether it goes east or west, and that is likely going to determine the type of response that we have to have tomorrow. >> lieutenant jeffrey yarbrough, thank you so much for giving us all this information and helping people to prepare if they still can. joining me now is florida state representative diane hart, her district is hillsboro county. thank you for being here. representative heart, your county is sad to see some of the hurricane idalia, through tomorrow i might add. are you prepared and what are you most concerned about over these next several hours are we looking right now at the screen on the image of the eye of the storm, battling that big bend

of florida? >> i am watching very closely because, i am at home right now. i am feeling the bans. the rain is pouring down, the wind is blowing. so my worst fear is tomorrow morning for people who did not evacuate when they were asked to evacuate. fears that the surge may be between six and seven feet tomorrow, so i understand that our authorities will be going out tomorrow morning if they can to actually check on people and you are asking them to please stay inside. if you are in the house, do not come out. there are some areas that will be flooding and we expect them to flood over the bay shore area, my understanding is that we have some out it right now over in the bay shore area. so, we are already beginning to feel the effects of this storm. right in my very neighborhood where i live, we are pretty

high. so we don't expect any flooding in my community, but we are going to have some flooding in some other areas right here in our city. >> 4 to 7 foot storm surges and thinking about those who are in lower elevation points. do you have particular concerns for people who are in more vulnerable communities? communities of color there? after hurricane ian last year there are some residents in fort myers, i believe, who said that assistance was a slow and relief efforts seemed to be focused on wealthier and white communities? >> i have to say to you that i have been working with hillsboro county for a number of years, and we have had some terrible storms here. they have been very resourceful. i did get calls this afternoon for my county informing me that if there was anything that my constituents needed, to just reach out. and they would do everything they can. so my hope is that my communities are directly impacted in the lower income

communities. we will get the assistance that we need as quickly as possible. so, i think that we will be okay here in hillsboro, county. tomorrow my hope is that people will stay inside and don't go out, because there will be trees down, we know that for certain. there might be some outages, there may be electric lines down, so we are just asking all of our constituents to stay inside until it has been cleared and emergency management has told everybody it is okay to move around. >> representative diane hart, thank you so much. we'll be thinking about you and your community and watching how this storm can be weathered. thank you. >> thank you so much. >> well, our breaking news everyone. hurricane idalia is now expected to slam into florida as an extremely dangerous category four storm when it makes landfall in the florida state banned region in our just a matter of hours. we've got more live from the

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residents cheyenne wells. think you for joining us this evening. shyann, what ultimately led to you and your family to evacuating cedar key? >> definitely is a surge. the 15 foot surge that they were calling for a few hours ago, definitely lead us to get out. >> before that, how do you been considering leaving or were you trying to hunker down? >> we were thinking about staying and hunkering down, but i kind of talked my parents into believing and i couldn't leave them. >> understandable. this storm is to become a powerful category four by the time it lands. how concerned are you about not only the damage of the storm could cause, but your lives being at risk if you stayed? >> no, i am terrified.

absolutely terrified. i don't know if i'm going to wake up and have a home to go to or a job or if any of the people that have become close to me, family wise, are going to have anything left. >> that is terrifying to think about. i certainly hope that you will be safe. did you say your parents are with you as well, was this a decision to have them come with you, to convince them otherwise? >> they went to gainesville and we stayed, me and my fiancée stayed nine miles off the island. to be close to whatever happens and if somebody needs help we can be there to help. >> you are now staying in a town just a few miles from the cedar key. we have been seeing tonight just the different webcams that

are available, the flooding already, the water rushing in. what are conditions like where you are right now? >> it is starting to rain, it is definitely windy. no flooding yet, but it is bound to come. rosewood is pretty much really low land, so it is hard to say that it won't flood. >> shyann please stay safe, we'll be thinking of you and your family. thank you to you for heeding the call to evacuate, we know that it is terrifying. we'll be thinking about you. >> thank. you >> please stay safe. joining me now is -- she is a steam happy florida resident who is staying put in spite of a mandatory evacuation order warning to ride out the storm. she decided with her husband and three children. jen lah, sank you for talking to me this evening. you are only half a mile away

from the gulf, what are you thinking right now as we are getting these reports in about this storm coming? >> i am starting to get to chills. it is not looking good, obviously. i don't know. i don't know what i am getting. i am thinking 1 million different things. >> why did you decide to stay? >> we own our home here, we build our lives here. a lot of my family have stayed and i can't believe them. what if they need me. >> i can tell, just thinking about the stress and pressure to be on you to decide what to do and when to do it. is there an emergency plan that you have if you need to get out? is there somewhere else you could go? >> yeah, we do have my sister that is about 45 miles inland. we can go there to get to the

point if we get super scared to leave. right now it is just raining and wind, so it's not too bad yet. we are just waiting and we have this little dirt road trail that we can head out, instead of going to the road that goes by the gulf here. it goes about 17 miles, nothing about goals. there is another road that we can take and get to a way. >> now, i hear all the time don't drive through floodwaters, i don't take that risk and the saves. if you are considering venturing out, you said there are other people in the area, family who didn't want to leave and just think about what kind of a person you are to say what if they need me. it speaks to your character for a lot of reasons. are you in touch with anyone else who decided to ride out the storm? >> my brother and sister, my other brother and sister. they are probably about two miles from me and they are riding out together. me and my family is riding out together, and then we have

numerous friends that have stayed and we got one guy who is not even a quarter of a mile from our house to a double wide trailer. you know, what if he needs to come to my home? my home is concrete, it is built to standard and so if people need to come to my place, they are >> if children are. stand i'm a mother myself so what are you telling your kids? >> trying to get my kids to go with my sister. , in case it does get bad. me and my husband have to. we have to weigh about them. one of my children's special needs. my daughter is 18 and told me a while ago that i do not want to leave you.

bringing other family members. we want to get out now? what we want to ride it out? >> time is ticking away. you have a decision to make about certain time? obviously the weather, radar coming up. is there cut off to? probably within the hour. because like i said, we had the back roads. for the wind picks up. tornadoes, better to hunker down in the master bathroom. good. everything is going to be okay. >> i hear your pet in the

background as well. thank, you stay safe. >> you too. >> i want to bring in jonathan frankly one. good to see jonathan. we're going to be from your home, but instead he went to a hotel. we made you decide to leave your home, if you have a this. isn't easy for me is, about a small piece of the island. this is intercoastal so if there was a serious surge, i'd be in a lot of trouble.

my car, i don't know about. >> are you concerned for your safety? yeah, not that i want to this hotel right there is definitely a part of me. it's nice to be a couple blocks inland. and be able to be able to go to sleep tonight. without spending the whole night looking for the storm surge. >> are you seeing anything? >> i can have the, moment it's dark. extremely lucky that this storm offshore. you are in florida last year. this impact your actions this time around?

>> this time i took a little bit longer to make this decision. i'm safely off the island. >> jonathan franks, thank you, stay safe. we are thinking about you as well. everyone, hurricane has rapidly intensified over the warm waters of the gulf of mexico and it is forecast now to become extremely dangerous category four hurricane. so how much of that is due to climate change. cnn's bill weir is here with me to explain next.

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>> hurricane bearing down on florida. so the big, question how does climate change factor into the snow monstrous storm? this summer, in the gulf of mexico, water temperatures reached the highest levels ever

recorded. around southern food, water temperatures climbed to 100 degrees in some areas. is it all because of climate? ainge cnn's bill weir is here with me. i'm so glad you are here to try to help people make sense of so much of what we are seeing all summer long. how is climate change making hurricanes like more common? is the water temperature really factoring into all of this? >> that has everything to do with the laura. warm water is the engine. coming from fossil fuels, as ten hiroshima sized atomic bombs. because the ocean is so vast in

the, it's taking this long before it become apparent. it oceans absorb the energy absorbed in crime. change so because it doesn't. starting to see it with that triple digit hot up temperatures around the keys. which is just a death sentence. bottom of the food chains in terms of sea life. you clemency doesn't necessarily mean -- for every degree of warming, it could make it 10% more powerful. a major storm, hundred 40 mile per hour winds. could hit hunter in my 90-mile-per-hour winds. we don't think it's going to come near those numbers. in terms of the storm surge,

like we saw, within it's clear that with every storm, we are entering a new normal where things are more extreme. >> i remember when we were reporting about those temperatures. people are thinking about the coral. you certainly. were you are sounding the, alarm have been for sometime. to draw these diffractions, to really see this come together. and you have it be so long in the making. intensity is rapidly intensification that we are seeing in hurricanes, is that intensification also a symptom of climate change? >> exactly, because you have these sort of warm blobs. the heat wave on land. it does happen in the marine world is. well so right now, average temperature around the whole of the gulf of mexico is about 80 degrees. but if you get closer to the coast where it is shallow, or get to the 90s. when that water hits, there it charges up. big picture of, course fossil

fuels and the root of this. super charging these storms and at the same time the biden administration has decided to sell in the gulf of mexico. which to the dismay of the common supporters who say every ton we pump and byron makes the storms worse. the irony is that golf is about to open up in that way. but in the near term, it's just a simple that we have to adapt to what is baked in. and for maui, dealing with fires. we suffer from a lack of worst-case imagination. because we are going by the storms of the past. that are quaint in comparison to the conditions that are becoming more today. >> experiencing something like this, little motivational parts, very scary, spectrum from maui to hear. bill, please stay safe. we rely on you so much. thank you so much. >> my pleasure.

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>> hurricane bearing down on florida. massive storm is likely causing economic issues throughout this day and even beyond. gas prices approaching historic highs. for this time of year. disruption in the gulf coast could send them higher ahead of the weekend. joining to discuss, cnn economic and political commentator catherine rampell. i'm glad you are here tonight. thank, you gas prices as mentioned obviously matter less than people's lives. full stop. this storm still incoming. question people are asking now. how could this storm possibly impact things like prices? in the coming days and weeks ahead? >> we have already seen disruptions to gas lines within the state of florida. people are feeling of cars,

generators. that might be modestly we wouldn't prices. not to mention the fact that there's been a gas contamination issue. widespread recently in the couple days in florida. beyond this, i think it's too soon to say whether we will see any national impact on gasoline prices. in part, because while there may be disruptions in supply to the state, the oil refineries that are close by look like they're out of the pop. the oil extracted nearby the state also seems like it is unlikely to be hit at this point. so in terms of effects on national gas prices, right now it looks like there are likely to be limited. but this is potentially a catastrophic storm. so it is a little bit hard to get a handle on how all of the different kinds of terminals

and other linkages fit in the petroleum industry. they might be linked and affected. >> floridians are becoming increasingly accustomed to hurricanes. and the insurance companies frankly have also become accustomed to it. several of them have exited florida. your snooze alarm. winter storms like these actually mean for homeowners going forward? can they get insurance? >> as you point out, a number of major insurers, homeowners insurance providers have already left the state. most recently farmers last month. they've gotten skittish, understandably. because florida has been hounded by storm after storm. there has been a lot of extensive damage that the insurance companies have had to pay for. so they have said we are out. if this storm is as catastrophic as many fear it may be.

that certainly is going to make the market even less stable and you might see further insurers decide to pull out or at the very least prices will go up within the state and i think that you might see some effects elsewhere in the country as insurance companies get increasingly nervous about what had been once in a century storm, once in a century natural disasters happening on a quite regular basis and hitting a blow to the bottom lines. >> kathryn pell, thank you so much for all that information i always appreciate it. everyone, stay with us as we are tracking the very latest movements of hurricane adalja. and we have adopted forecast next. we need to scale with customer demand... ...in real time. (jen) so we partner with verizon to take our operations to the next level. (marquis) with a custom private 5g network. (ella) with verizon business, we get more control of production,

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>> breaking, news hurricane

becoming a category four storm at landfall. officials warning that the area could experience a catastrophic storm surge. cnn's chad myers is in the cnn weather center. shows how these storm surges can so dangerous. >> yeah, especially where we are talking about. a very flat piece of land. here we are, hundred ten miles an hour. it'll get to 1:30 before it makes landfall. has been building a bubble of water underneath it for hours now. it'll eventually make landfall in the big bend area of florida. so yes, it is the water that has been building. moving to the north. it is still moving. but down here, what's getting in the way? the possibility of a tornado or two. it's not out of the question. but as the storm makes its way

on up to the big ben area, that is when the surge will be from crystal city, possibly in two appalachia cola. where most of the surge will likely be. this is what we are talking about. the very flat piece of land. why does that matter? when the water goes up a foot, literally your shoreline can lose 3 to 400 feet. and if it goes defeat, all the sudden you have lost 1000 feet. if it goes up what they're forecasting, 10 to 15 feet. oh my gosh, how far inland will that go? that will likely be miles. likely miles inland that this will push the water. this is an area, very fragile, it's wildlife, they will have to try to get out of the. people have to get out of the way. this surge is a very dangerous thing. >> seeing it visually in front of us is something that is so stunning. chad myers, thank you so much. and thank you everyone for watching. don't go anywhere.

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