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this is "gps", the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria coming to you live from new york. we're going to get right into it this morning as we await the next release of hostages from gaza. israel and hamas are now two days and ten hours into their four-day truce. on friday, 13 israelis and 11 foreign nationals were released from captivity in gaza. yesterday after a long delay, another 13 israelis and four foreigners were released, bringing the total to 26 israelis and 15 foreigners who have been freed during the truce. on the flip side of this arrangement, 39 possesses were released from israeli prisons on friday and 39 again on saturday. another major aspect of the deal was getting aid into gaza. and hundreds of trucks filled with food and water and fuel and

medical supplies and more have crossed into the territory since the truce began on friday. let me bring there cnn's oren liebermann who is in tel aviv for us with the latest. i wanted to ask you, the truce previously over the years between hamas and the israeli government have been fraught with difficulty. what was the delay yesterday and is that telling us that this fragile truce might actually collapse? >> so, first let's look at where we stand today. we are expecting and anticipating that the movement and transfer of israeli hostages from the hands of hamas to the red cross should or could begin sometime soon. it was two days ago in the first transfer of hostages that it had already begun. but as we know, yesterday was a very different story and that is where it was fraught with difficulties and at risk of

falling apart. so yesterday, hamas complained that israel was not living up to its side of the bargain. all of the aid trucks hadn't gotten in and they haven't gotten to northern gaza which israel called a war zone. and that led to a delay and fear amongst the parties and the qataris and the americans that the deal itself may fall apart. there was a intensive diplomatic effort to make sure it remains today. and israel accused hamas of violating the terms of the agreement because there was a child released without a mother. and the agreement was to keep families together. so, perhaps not surprising at all that we see accusations going back and forth of violating the terms of the agreement. what is crucial is that the agreement held and the transfer

happened. and so far it looks like it is moving forward and we'll waiting to see the transfer of more israeli hostages coming out of gaza and subsequently more palestinian principlers released from both sides of the agreement. we have no reason to believe at this point that today's transfer is at risk but we shall see, fareed. >> orren, is there any indication as to whether there is a logic to the foreign nationals being released? are they prioritizing israelis, do americans, are they top priority at the bottom of the list, do we have any sense or is it random? >> for what we could tell it is sort of random. for example, the youngest in captivity, they remain in captivity. there were some that expected they come out first based on age and the family comes out, that is not the case and that family whom we spoke with a short time ago said they have no information at all that they'll be part of tonight's release.

marin meanwhile the foreign nationals are an extra. there is flog in exchange for them. they're simply being released and they are not part of the this conflict and war. and so they're being released on a band on basis, ten thais and a philippina on first night. so we'll see. but even on the israeli side, there doesn't appear to be any rhyme or reason to it. and today we are expecting the first american release and two others as part of the women and children. but there doesn't appear to be a list and say these people are coming out now until hamas releases that list. >> oren liebermann, thank you so much, thank you for your great reporting. i want to bring in amir tibon from the israeli newspaper. he was also a resident of one of the kibbutz's that was attacked on october 7th. the pictures are amir's house.

they spent ten hours locked in their safe room during at tack only to be saved by amir's father, a former idf general. amir believe that's today's release of hostages will include residents of his kibbutz. amir, pleasure to you have on. let me first ask, what does it feel like, because there must be a mixed feeling, some people are being released but others will not be released from this kibbutz, right? >> hi, fareed, thank you so much for having me. right now, there is first of all, a little anxiety and suspense because we don't know what is going to happen. last night there was supposed to be a release in the earl why i evening hours here in israel of 13 of our hostages from a neighboring community to ours. and eventually they only got out around 11:00 p.m. because hamas pulled a list of dirty and

vicious and really cruel tricks to try to delay and postpone and buy time. and we want to see first and foremost that today's list of 13 people actually come out and get to meet their families. and we here in my community are expecting some news, but i don't want to say anything beyond that right now because everything is very, very delicate. i will just say we are as a community going through a very difficult period since october 7th. we're trying to hold and support one another and stay together and that's what we're going to do today as well. just be there for one another and hope for good news. >> amir, let me ask you, if i may, to put your hat on, your correspondent, what is your sense of the prospect of the cease-fire being extended? there are people talking, we

hear president biden has said there is a chance. do you think that thei israeli government would accept that? it seems from the initial rhetoric, highly unlikely, because the israeli government want to get rid of hamas and surely that has not yet been done. >> fareed, israel is facing an impossible dilemma at this moment. we have no good choices. we only have terrible choices in the current situation. on the one hand, even after the very, very exciting and wonderful releases of two groups of hostages last night and the night before, we still have approximately 200 people in the hands of the enemy, the vast majority of them are civilians including more women and more children and our first priorities is to get them out. to bring them home after more than 50 days there the tunnels of gaza. in the hands of ruthful terrorists. some of the hostages, before they were kidnapped, their own family members were murdered

before their eyes. so our first priority is to bring them back. and i do believe if there is a possibility to prolong the current cease-fire in return for the release of more hostages, israel will be willing to discuss it and i know president biden is pushing for it and i know secretary blinken is working for it and other countries in the region, qatar and egypt. however, we should not be mistaken to think that a long-term cease-fire ending the war is in the cards right now. it is not. israel has been fighting against hamas now for 50 days. there has been a lot of achievements in the northern part of gaza but hamas is still barricading itself in the southern part of the gaza among the civilian population. it still has capabilities that it left in tact. will they be used to slaughter israeli citizens in future. so while i do see a chance of prolonging the cease-fire to allow the release of more hostages i would not put my money on a long-term cease-fire

as long as hamas remains part of the picture. >> and amir, let me ask you, haaratz is a left of center publication, has been very supportive of a two-state solution. and my guess that the kibbutz that you're from is also probably more in that camp than prime minister netanyahu's camp has this changed your view of the world? reflect if on what this has done for you politically and psychologically? >> i have to say, fareed, it is as resident of kibbutz for several years before october 7th, i never had any illusions about hamas. and neither did my neighbors. we chose to live in this community directly on the border and face the threat of more terror attacks and rocket attacks and you noknow, there a no iron dome. we are so close to gaza that

iron dome does not protect us. so we never had any illusions about hamas. we knew every day there were people on the other side of the border who wanted to murder us. an i think from my point of view, what maybe has changed, is the question of how much support does hamas have among civilian population. because more than the hamas terrorists will enter our community on that morning and murdered 14 people and tried to murder me and my family, the more shocking issue was the fact that later civilians came in and looted homes and some of them took part in terrible actions. that is the real question that we must present to ourselves. and i think in general in israel today, anybody who is not doing some self-reflection is -- gnt get the memo. this is true for people who are talking about long-term peace with gaza an it is just as true for supporters for the prime minister for who 15 years had this idea of working with hamas

hand in hand and building hamas as an alternative to the palestinian authority. and supporting the qatari payments of cash money to hamas. we all have now a moment in this country where we need to look back at mistakes of the past, reflect on where we have been wrong. it is true i could tell you, for me personally, sadly, while i do see this process in my own environment, i have not seen it at all from the political leadership of the country which is still stuck on october 6th and did not understand perhaps what changed. >> amir tibon, thank you very much. i know it is a busy and come b plick ating day for you. thank you. and we'll look at the other releases during the truce. palestinians from israeli prisons and these are highly charged on both sides of border wall. find out why when we come back.

sinwar, the head of the hamas in gaza and the mastermind of the attack spend two decades in israeli prisons. he was released in 2011, in a swap with israel. at the time israel traded more than 1,000 palestinians for just one israeli. a soldier named gillad. so the release of palestinians from israeli detention is a sensitive subject forr israelis and equally charged for palestinians. the head for detainees said some 8300 palestinians are being held in israeli jails and more than 3,000 are being held b un-- hel under administrative detention, meaning they are being held without charges and without any ongoing legal process.

nada bashir joins me now from jerusalem with more. explain what that means. palestinians point to the pripers as a proof of the dual system they live under in places like the west bank and gaza. explain who these people who are being released? >> reporter: absolutely and we've seen this issue of palestinians occupying west bank and teenagers and children under the age of 18 being detained often for months on end, sometimes even longer without any knowledge of what they are being charged with. without access to legal representation, without an ongoing legal process. that is the system termed as administrative detention. as we have seen over the last two days, many of those people released including many teenage boys under the age of 18, many

of them between 16 and 18 had been held for months under administrative detention, unclear what charges they face. and this is been an issue long before october 7th. and this continues to be an issue. we are still seeing the arrest and detention of palestinians particularly in the occupied west bank. as we understand it, some 150 people, palestinians, will be released as part of this exchange agreement as part of the truce agreement between israel and hamas. and in the week we saw a list issued byize raely authorities of women and children eligible for possible release as part of this agreement. many of them in that list under administrative detention. of course, the israeli authorities say some of them on the list were charged with more serious offenses including the possession of weapons, threatening regional security associated with terrorist activities according to the israeli authorities. among the charges, one most common was throwing stones at

israel israeli soldiers and that is something that we have seen over the last two days in terms of people that are being released. we've seen crowds swelling around ramallah to welcome the release of these detainees and prisoners. yesterday we saw some 33 teenage boysing released. majority of them held under detention. many of them had no idea until the earl why i hours of yesterday morning that they would be among those released and you could imagine the relief of the family waiting to hear if they will see their loved ones released on the third day of the truce. >> thank you, so much, nada. pleasure to hear you. joining me now is shibley telhami, the professor for peace and development at the university of maryland. he's also a senior fellow at brookings. shibley, welcome. tell us how this is playing in

the arab world? you're a scholar of the arab world and studied public opinion there for decades. the conventional wisdom has been that while arab leaders mouth support for this, while even arab street gets riled up, people don't really care. it is an issue, look at making peace with israel. what is going on now? what are you sensing? >> well, first of all, good to join you again, fareed, and it is nice to see family coming home and for the palestinian families that are rejoined with loved ones. let me address the prisoner issue because the issue of the day and then i'll talk about how that plays out in the arab world. the reason is that this prisoner issue, it is very dear to theize

rae ra -- the israelis. and hopefully all of them will be released. but this issue is so critical to palestinians and arabs for three reasons. the one reason is the scale of it. since the occupation started, it isset -- it is estimated that a million palestinians have been held, many of them as your reporter had suggested, without charges. there isn't a family that is not touched by that. so the scale is enormous. it is very difficult. the second is what you alluded to, the second -- the two tier system in the west bank. those could be arrested by military without charges and on -- called terrorists and some of them may have matched a terrorist label and many of them don't. sometimes it is speech.

almost 100% conviction rate in military court and you havie israeli settlers living under international law but if they commit a crime, they're rarely charged even when there is a death of a palestinian and convicted. so you have the tier system that rubs into the situation. and the third is the idea of what violence is. we think of violence in the west, thinking about let's reduce violence, make sure it doesn't rerupt, we're thinking about explosions and they ought to stop. but the reality of the every day and the reality of occupation and the fact that you could have a military going floor someone's home at 4:00 in the morning and arrest them without recourse, that is a violent act. more plaalestinians, even when e gun is not there, it is --

occupation is a violent reality and that is a reality for most palestinians and when things go back to normal. there is no normal. normal is violence. subtle violence, but violence nonetheless. but this resonated in the arab world. what we've seen in the public opinion polling, we haven't really seen new public opinion polling, but before, obviously, the palestinian issue resonated with the public but not so much with governments and governments have not paid attention to it. they thought the publics don't care as much about it. but this particular episode, i think, has not only resonated in the arab world, has probably created a transformative paradigm forming moment. this is not simply a moment of anger. this is a moment, i think where the shaping of an entire -- the opinion of an entire new generation is lost and it is

implicating the u.s. in a direct way with the possibilities and i hone not but a responsibility of blowback. because they see the scale of that -- equivalent of more than 200 nuclear devices over a period of a month and a half in a very small area with thousands of children killed over a million and a half displaced. they can't understand how the u.s. would be okay with that. and so, yes, i think this is generated tremendous transformation of public opinion. now obviously this doesn't shift the strategic interest of the arab states. that remains to be seen. but it restrains what our governments could do. >> do you think there is a possibility that a place like bahrain, which has a large population, may decide that it has to suspend the abraham accords. do you think that saudi arabia will delay normalize is for

indefinitely? >> it is really impossible to know, fareed. let me tell you why. i think we all kind of say, well let's wait until this war is over. i'm not sure what that means honestly, whether this war, quote, will be over. i'm not sure what destroying hamas means other than destroying all of gaza. i'm not sure whether there is a moment when we see this is a moment of opportunity. i think there is goals set here that could not really be met. but particularly by the united states, not just the israelis. now the israelis, you could understand when you have a horrific attack like the one by hamas, hearts harden and palestinian hearts harden when they watch what theize r israele doing. you have demonization, you want to do the maximum damage to the other. that is understandable. but what i can't really

understand is how our own government, the united states government, has given a blank check in a matter that impacted our own national interest. not only with blowback, but the possibility of escalation. >> i have to let to rest there. we are out of time. i really thank you and we will of course have you back for your insights. pleasure to have you on. next on gps, we'll try to put the entire war in perspective. richard haass and robin wright join me to give us their wisdom.

i want to pull back now with two guests would will help us think about the bigger picture of the truce, and the war and the politics of the region. richard haass is a former top state department official.

and the president ameritous from foreign relations and robin write is from the new yorker and covered the region for decades. robin, let me start with you. you know iran so well and the thing that i've been struck by in all of this, as sherlock holmes said, you have to pay attention to the dog that doesn't bark. iran has been very restrains and hezbollah has been very restrained and in a speech they said we wish you well, but don't expect too much help from us. what do you think the calculation is there? >> this is hamas's war and from the beginning both hezbollah and iran has indicated they're not going to get engaged. if this had been a joint operation, hezbollah has for more weaponry, several times the size of hamas and it could have been catastrophic for israel. and hamas kept this so within its own leadership in terms of what they were going to

specifically, that it didn't share even with some of its own leadership outside of the country. this is not a good moment for iran engage in a war given its own problems at homes with protests and it has its own election next year. and hezbollah is in a different state than it was in 2006 when they launched an operation against israel that led to a 34-day war, now the second longest war that israel has fought. lebanon is a failing state and hezbollah is a major political player. it has to care about its constituents and it doesn't have any cguarantees that they could be there to rebuild lebanon. so at the moment, barring unintended consequences or a wild card event, they are not going to provide the kind of help that hamas had hoped that both would intervene and make it a broader region-wide war. >> richmard, what are your

thoughts on iran's wars. it does suggest that hamas is a little bit more independent of iran than people had made out. it is true that hezbollah, a shiite organization that sweared feet to iran is different from hamas which is a sunni organization that supported hamas and they are on the opposite sides of the syrian civil war. so does it suggest there is more distance in -- how do you read what is going on? >> agree with what you said and robin said. i think there is strategic support for hamas and tactical support and the latter seems to be missing in the case of the raid. for all we know, hamas was worried if it ran this idea by iran, it would have been vetoed. this is very much for hamas to basically say, their version oftation identification. we're the only force in the

palestinian world willing and able to take on israel. iran also has all sorts of economic problems. their exporting 2 million barrels of oil aday, not clear they want to see that interrupted and neither does china, the country that gets most of the iran's exported oil. so i take your point. i think this suggest that we use the phrase proxy too loosely and there is a degree of autonomy, i won't call it independence, but autonomy when it comes to tactical decisions. >> robin, what are your thoughts on the possible of this spreading in different ways? are there other actors in the region who you think could get in? people have talked about the houthis in yemen and it feels to me what we're seeing is a fairly classic contained israel-palestinian war. >> so far contained.

but what we're seeing is some of iran's proxies like the houthis and in yemen, and some of the proxies in iraq and syria taking on in one case, houthis taking on israel or in one case the u.s. but what is more important is iran's proxies are taking on americans who are fighting in a different war. those americans, 900 in syria, 2500 in iraq, are still deployed there as part of the anti-isis campaign to make sure that isis does not make a comeback and can't rebuild the caliphate and challenge the governments in iraq or in syria. so this is -- it is very interesting how iran is gaming this. very shrewdly and tactically taking on the presence in the middle east more broadly to try to suggest that the cost of deploying -- now the one great danger down the road is that the united states is deploying. and 2000 troops, we're not sure

where, probably some in jordan but the united states is not giving us full disclosure as well as warships. and the great danger is that the united states is there to flex its many usles and to say don't widen this war but at same time become targets for extremist groups andine lone wolves and that is one of the wild cards who knows what the consequences of that kind of action might be. >> stay with us. when we come back, i'm going to ask richard haass about bibi netanyahu's lousy options and joe biden's lousy options, asking what he would do if he were in either one's shoes.

we're back with richard haass and robin wright. let me ask you about bibi netanyahu. does he have the right military

strategy right now? and does he have the right political strategy? i must confess, the latter i'm not sure he's articulated. but i wanted to know what you think is going on? >> he has a military strategy. i would argue and so would all of the generals i've talked to say it is the wrong one. he doesn't have the wrong political strategy. he doesn't have a political strategy. i think in the short run he needed to focus on getting the hostages back. that is clearly the priority for the israeli public. if and when he returns to military operations, it has to be far more granular and discrete. it can't be large campaigns dropping large bombs that are killing large numbers of civilians. it is the wrong way to go about it. it is losing american and international opinion, it is alienating palestinians, it a

great recruiting troool for ham and other groups. you can't simply a military effort against hamas, you have to have a political alternative and be able to say palestinians, look, violence is a dead end. you will never get what you want politically through violence. but there is an alternative better way. there is a way through compromise and coexistence with israel. bibi has to introduce that. that's where i think that president biden could go in. he should go to there and speak to knesset and make the case for a two-state solution and make one stop on the way and that is to resurrect the saudi initiative. as you and robin both know, one of the reasons that hamas started this war on october 7th was to derail normalization between saudi arabia and israel. i think the time has come to put that back on the table.

it triggered debate within israel, you have a choice. a greater israel with all of your settlements not giving the palestinians a state ever thur own, or a greater peace. including a peace with a country of saudi arabia that is pivotal in the arab and islamic world. so i think the united states with saudi arabia as a partner could introduce the political track this this government under bibi netanyahu is sorely lacking. >> richard, you know israel well. they are traumatized and i think the israeli argument would be look we tried peace, we barack made an offer to arafat and he turned it down and omer made an offer to -- and he turned it down. we're stuck with these lousy options because we don't have a partner. how do you break that log jam? >> people are right to be suspicious. i've been involved in many of those unsuccessful attempts myself. one is to very much make it a

world not as an alternative to the palestinians but with them. too much in the past we've worked with the palestinians alone. say under the clint administration and more recently with the abraham accords. i think we need to do the two together. and look, i understand the israeli trauma. we're not talking about sharing neighborhoods. we're talking about separation. one of the reasons to have a palestinian state in the west bank and in gaza is not to comingle, but it is to separate. to come up with terms of separation. the palestinians could realize some of their aspirations or realize them separately. any sort of coexistence of normalization may never happen and if it were to happen would be far down the road. so this is not naive and asking people to forget about october 7th and decades of violence, it is a way to preserve israel as a

secure, jewish, democratic prosperous state. right now all of that has been put at risk. what i'm talking about, is not simply a favor, call it what you will, a gift to palestinians, this is a gift israelis must make more themselves. >> robin, i want to pick up on something shibley talked about what is the images that were coming out of gaza and the blowback to the united states. you know the region well. do you think this is real? is it something the united states should worry about? >> the united states should worry very much about what the attitude is across the arab world begin the fact that the abraham accords were the groundwork of both republican and democratic administrations to expand arab-israeli relations in part because they share a concern about the future with iran in the region. but i think that to richard's

point. >> the goal is clear is by the biden administration to try to get the peace process back on track. the danger is that with every war israel turns further to the right. and that doesn't necessarily mean that bibi netanyahu stays around but it does mean that peace is more difficult for israelis to try to -- traumatized israelis. i think we're further away than since 1993, 30 years since the oz low accords the danger is that all of the sides have very different goals. hamas to destroy israel, israel to destroy hamas, the united states hopes for a two-state solution that neither side is willing to discuss. and i think that the israel-saudi peace process was much further away i've been told by people in the white house that was widely assumed. yes, it was on the table and,

yes, there was interest, but there were details including the fact that the united states was asked by the saudis to provide basically the same kind of protection that it does with its nato allies including a nuclear umbrella and that is a very controversial idea in the united states. so this war is now entered american politics and it may play out in the election year and remember president's reagan and carter were traumatized by hostage deals that threatened their presidencies. >> richard, if you stay with me, i want to talk about ukraine, the war that is -- the other war that is going on that we really do have to get to. i also want to mention that israeli president herzog will join wolf blitzer for an exclusive interview today on "inside politics." that is the next show up here on cnn at 11:00 a.m.

this just into cnn, the israeli defense forces say that the red cross has received a handover of 17 israeli and foreign hostages who were released from captivity in gaza. we are back with richard haass. richard, i want to just take you briefly to the other war that is ongoing in a brutal stalemate right now in ukraine. and it feels like you have an important foreign affairs article, you're saying something similar to what you were just saying about u.s. strategy toward israel. u.s. strategy toward ukraine is publicly 100% supportive, but privately we're worried about where things are going. why did you set out your concern and where do you want -- a fairly substantial course correction? >> yeah, look, the idea that ukraine is on a course hopefully to liberate the 20% of its

territory there that russia occupies, the problem is there is very little if any evidence that it is going to be able to achieve that and i worry that european support for ukraine w begin to fade. it is already happening. and i'm arguing that ukraine ought to swip its strategy, not give up on long-term goals of getting back what is theirs, but focus on defending on what it has, on the 80%, and make sure that russia cannot succeed in eliminating ukraine, which is set oup to do two years ago. and could reduce the defense requirems from united states and europe. so i think it needs to recast its military strategy. and i think a larger point, something that you understand as well as anybody, any time in foreign policy there is a gap between your means and your ends, you run into trouble. the ends are laudable. they're just too ambitious right now. so i think ukraine has to dial

back and the united states, just like we need to have some difficult conversations with israel about what it is doing or not doing militarily and politically, i think the time has come with united states to have awkward conversations with ukraine to say we want you to survive, let's recast your strategy, we'll give you security assurances but we have to put on the back burner your goal of getting back your territory. >> the one problem i sense in reading that article is ukraine is not really viable right now as an economic entity without the ability to export its grain out of odessa. exporting by seas is much cheaper than by land. shouldn't they fight at least to get control of odesa? >> well i have to problem with that. and that could be the stipulation. that is the point that you have to get there and then you park

it there. that would be the interim arrangement and make them militarily secure and that would become a plateau. not a permanent outcome, but a plateau until they have a different leadership in russia that is tired about russia being a pariah and being the target of economic sanction. >> words of wisdom as always, richard, thank you. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week.

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