amazing. >> you can hear the emotion there. it's nice to hear athlete bs vulnerable. backup quarterback is a good job to have normally. most people would take it. but when the pressure is on to perform, it's a lot of pressure. >> former first-round pick, was supposed to be a starter. second chance in his career. went to ohio state. >> okay, poppy. >> we were talking about it all morning long. >> which ohio? >> oh, come on. >> thank you so much. "cnn this morning" continues right now. ♪ in one month from now the first votes will be cast in the 2024 race to be president. >> i think there's a real risk that she would send american troops to ukraine to fight. >> he's going to lie about me. i'm going to tell the truth about him. a legal setback for mark meadows. >> this opinion is meticulous. it's airtight. you could almost just replace meadows for trump. >> rudy giuliani is getting sue again. >> ruby freeman and shaye moss want rudy giuliani not just to

pay them but to stop lying about them. ♪ >> texas governor signing a bill that makes entering texas illegally a state crime w. why do we have to carry our passports around. >> governor abbott said we also welcome a supreme court decision that would overturn the precedent set in the arizona case. massive volcano erupting on iceland's peninsula. the haze of fire. >> it seems that the lava flows are changing direction away from the town. ♪ good morning, everyone. i'm phil mattingly with poppy harlow in new york. donald trump and his top rivals for the gop presidential nomination all hitting the campaign trail there today. >> nikki haley, ron desantis about to kick off a busy day of campaign events across the state and trump is set to speak there at a rally tonight. the big push in iowa comes less than four weeks before the caucuses. >> tonight, we'll see if trump

keeps amping up that dark, anti-immigrant rhetoric we heard during his campaign rallies over the last several days, languages consistently drawing comparisons to adolph hitler. desantis is now saying trump, made a tactical mistake when he said immigrants were poisoning the blood of our country. also brand new this country, trump's super pac launching an attack ad against nikki haley for the first time in the early voting state of new hampshire after new polls showed her gaining quite a bit of ground on trump. here is a clip of that ad that just came out moments ago. >> that's right. haley broke her promise. >> increase the gas tax. >> hurts families, new hampshire can't afford nikki high-tax haley. >> steve contorno tracking all of it this morning. good morning. they have been busy campaigning in iowa ahead of the trump rally. that just shows that trump is scared of the gains we're making

in new hampshire. but now, iowa. >> reporter: that's right. to iowa where there's so much focus on this early nominating state. desantis and haley have been spending the last few days here. they will continue to campaign in iowa after trump leaves today. however, if you look at how they are spending their time and their money, it is more so on each other than on the front-runner in this race. former president donald trump returning to iowa tonight with just weeks until the january 15th caucuses. >> hello, iowa. >> reporter: his rivals storming the state as well, trying to cut into trump's commanding lead there, but mostly attacking each other. >> so nikki, i think there's a real risk that she would send american troops to ukraine to fight. >> today he said that i want our troops to be in ukraine. i've never even said anything like that. nowhere near it. >> reporter: florida governor ron desantis the middle of a six-day swing through iowa, fighting from behind as a cbs

news poll shows him trailing trump by 36 points in the hawkeye state. former south carolina governor and u.n. ambassador nikki haley is further behind desantis, though fairing much better in new hampshire. >> i've done well over 120 something, 140 town halls. and i never talk about my opponents. but today i am. >> reporter: haley on monday taking on her top rival to challenge trump. >> if you punch me, i punch back. ron desantis has lied in every one of his commercials. >> reporter: super pacs supporting haley and desantis have spent millions on television ads, trying to tear down the other and emerge as the leading trump alternative. >> don't believe a thing nikki haley says. she doesn't. >> reporter: but very little targeting the front-runner. >> what a phony. ron desantis. too lame to lead. too weak to win. >> reporter: trump is receiving

some criticism from one of his rivals over his anti-immigrant rhetoric this weekend. when he said immigrants are, quote, poisoning the blood of our country. desantis on monday not directly rebuking trump, telling iowans that his remarks simply distracted from the problems at the u.s./mexico border. >> to give them an ability, the opposition an ability, to try to make it about something else with some of those comments i just think is a tactical mistake. >> reporter: haley latched on to trump's favorable name of vladimir putin. >> the part that bothers me is our national security sat risk. and what's he doing? he's praising dictators. >> reporter: desantis and haley and their supportive super pacs has spent $380,000 so far on television advertisements attacking donald trump. to put that in perspective, that is less than new jersey governor chris christie spent going after

trump on the air waves. meanwhile, super pacs aligned with donald trump spent about $12 million attacking governor desantis so far but now they are shifting focus to nikki haley, as you mentioned, poppy, there's that new ad coming out of a super pac supporting trump in new hampshire that is hitting the south carolina governor over her time leading that state. >> steve, thank you so much for the reporting for us. well, immigration has been a top issue on the campaign trail. now it's about to be at the heart of a battle between the federal government and the state government. that comes after texas governor greg abbott signed one of the nation's strictest immigration policies into law yesterday. at the heart of it, police will now be allowed to arrest migrants suspected of crossing illegally into the state. the move is the latest test in how far a state can go to protect its borders. cnn rosa flores is live for us in brownsville, texas. rosa, walk us through what this law actually does. >> reporter: well, you know, phil, there is a lot of concern here in the state of texas about this law because the language is

vague. it does not appropriate money to train police officers. counties are concerned this will fill their jails an they don't have enough judges. it doesn't have guardrails against racial profiling. now, about racial profiling. i just talked to a hispanic woman yesterday who said that she and everybody she knows are going to start carrying their passports. >> inaction has decimated america. >> reporter: with the stroke of a pen, texas governor greg abbott signed into law what aclu dubs one of the most radical anti-immigrant bills ever passed by any state. >> senate bill 4 is now law in the state of texas. >> reporter: sb 4 creates a new state crime for illegal entry into texas, gives local police the power to arrest, and judges the power to remove violators. >> but the problem is far more than just numbers. >> reporter: after multiple attempts, the controversial measure passed a republican-led legislature. >> it's un-american. >> i can't drive --

>> reporter: but not without a fight by the democratic minority that erupted into this on the house floor. >> y'all don't understand the shit y'all do hurts our community. >> reporter: after republicans cut debate short. >> and y'all don't understand that. y'all don't live in our [ bleep ] skin. >> reporter: that is texas state representative armando wally from houston. an american with mexican roots. he says he fears sb 4 will lead to the racial profiling of latinos across texas. >> why do we and those of us that look like me, why do we have to carry our passports around? >> reporter: so you think that u.s. citizens could be arrested under sb 4? >> yes. >> reporter: the republican authors of the bill said there was no need to safeguard the measure against racial profiling. >> racial profiling is against the law any way. >> reporter: texas has not determined the cost of sb 4. some county governments fear it's an unfunded mandate. >> don't agree with the cost of

being shifted over to our local taxpayers. >> i don't agree. >> reporter: 30 former immigration judges issued a statement saying the measure is not lawful because immigration is plainly a federal function. texas republican senator brian birdwell voted against the measure saying it's unconstitutional. >> we are setting a terrible precedent for the future by invalidating our obedience and faithfulness to our constitution. >> i believe sb 4 is completely constitutional. >> reporter: for americans outside of texas, representative wally -- wally warns sb 4 could be used to overturn the u.s. supreme court ruling on arizona's 2012 so-called show your papers law, which upheld that immigration is a federal function. >> this is their road map. now that they have a much favorable supreme court -- >> it's not in conflict with the precedent set in arizona versus u.s. >> reporter: as for wally who lost the fight against the law but was one of the strongest voices against it. >> it fills me with pride because i've had elderly people

today tell me that they were proud that somebody stood up for them. stood up for somebody who didn't have a voice. >> reporter: now, democrats on the hill led by u.s. representative castro are calling on u.s. attorney general merrick garland to assert his federal authority and sue the state of texas to stop sb 4 from going into effect. phil, it goes into effect in march. if this does happen, as you know, this wouldn't be the first lawsuit between the united states and the state of texas. we have covered all of them here on your show, phil. >> a long-running battle gets a new element. rosa, thank you. let's bring in elie honig. good morning to you. the letter that rosa was talking about that joaquin castro and others wrote it is preemptive to federal law and will result in racial profiling. the federal law is also upheld by the supreme court that said a

decade plus ago, you can't do this, states. you have to defer to the federal government on immigration. >> this law by texas is a stunt. i'll try to put it straight forwardly. it is a bedrock principle of our system that immigration, foreign policy are the province of the federal government not the states. we would have chaos if all the states were enforcing their own imgreat lmigration laws. arizona versus united states, one of the legislatures referred to it there. well, this is different but he didn't explain how. it's not different. this is going to be put on pause by the federal courts and ultimately struck down by federal courts. >> can i push back on that though. phil and i were talking earlier about the fact that part of the intent may also be to get it to go to the supreme court. it's likely going to end up in the supreme court. that was a different court than now. and scalia wrote in his dissent in that opinion this, quote, must arizona's ability to protect its borders yield to the reality that congress has provided inadequate funding for

federal enforcement or worse to the executives unwise targeting of that funding. this is a court with new trump justices on it. are you sure that this court would view it the same? >> i'm confident. i'll tell you why. you look at the 2012 court to now, you had justice reports join with the liberals back then. you take the three liberals now, that's four. you have justice barrett, justice kavanaugh is new. you have justice gorsuch is new since then. i'm confident -- look, they're conservatives but don't always go with whatever republicans do. they have all crossed over at various points. i'm confident the law and the constitution is clear enough here it will be struck down if it goes to the supreme court. >> thank you very much. stick around. we have more for you coming. >> israeli government will transition to the next phase of the war and allow displaced palestinians to return home. the late fres the region. new report details how china, russia and cuba tried to interfere in last year's midterm elections. what you need to know according to this intelligence ahead.

♪ all countries have the right

to move freely and lawfully in international waters. but that's foundational, global right is under new threat today from the totally unacceptable attacks on merchant vessels by the houthis in yemen. >> that was the secretary of defense lloyd austin continuing his trip the middle east this morning after those key meetings yesterday in israel. >> secretary austin met with troops in bahrain to condemn the houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the red sea. >> these reckless houthi attacks are a serious international problem. they demand a firm, international response. >> the secretary is now in doja where he will meet with qatari officials they attempt to begin

negotiation talks. dan, we appreciate you coming. always enjoy our conversations. right now, when you look at bill burns, cia director, meeting with his counterpart in qatar. the israeli, his counterpart in israel also having meetings as well. what do you think the odds are that a pause in hostage swaps comes back on to the table? >> look, it seems that hamas wants it. it seems that israel wants it. certainly the international community wants it. obviously getting from all the parties wanting it to executing it is always a bit of a challenge. i think the realtime to have done it where you made real progress was adding days to the long pause that occurred at the end of november when you had a big pause. then you were just adding incremental days. now they have gone back in heavy with the war fighting. they're making a lot of problem. the idf is making a lot of progress which is why hamas is eager to get a pause again because israel is really moving in and make progress in the south. i think all the parties want it, but getting to the pause that will be acceptable to all the

parties will be a challenge. >> do you think netanyahu is making it more difficult with statements like what he made saturday after israel accidentally killed three of its own hostages? he was criticized for being late to talking about that and lamenting that. then he went on to say, quote, i'm proud i prevented the establishment of a palestinian state. >> yeah. so, first of all, his statement he issued initially during the sabbath. it's not that unprecedented for a prime minister to wait a little bit until after the sabbath. i do think the prime minister netanyahu has this paradoxical situation. he's running a war and gearing up to try to hang on to political office. and so these tensions -- so he's injecting political points. i do not -- i don't accept the comparison to heading off the oslo peace process, two-state solution for three decades. first of all while he was prime menster in the '90s implemented some of the footh the two-state solution. i don't criticize him. i think there's politics being

mixed in here. i think there's a movement in israel right now of these families of the hostages and there's a little bit of a split within the movement. some of the families are saying, just get all the hostages out now. period. full stop. do whatever you have to do. and there are other families that are saying, wait. this is how we got into this mess last time when we rushed to negotiate, meaning in previous hostage exchanges from many years ago. then people, the architect of october 7th, got out of prison, returned to gaza in a prisoner exchange. >> let me follow up on poppy's question. i'm trying to piece together how this all ends. i'm probably not the person to be doing that. for a number of different reasons. but on the idea of the two-state solution which the biden administration has been explicit about, they have raised the palestinian authority, obviously netanyahu rejected both the two-state solution and the palestinian authority, the regional allies that are necessary to have an end game here, aren't saying anything publicly but certainly wouldn't go in without a two-state solution to help. netanyahu says absolutely not.

not on the table. i don't understand how you thread this needle. >> there's two pieces to it. one, in principle could there be a two-state solution? i think all the parties, the leaders in the gulf and the broader arab world, israel, the palestinian authority -- sorry, the u.s., are all open to a two-state solution. the question is who is the leadership in that palestinian state? nobody has confidence in the current palestinian authority that operates in the west bank. the israeli government doesn't have confidence. the u.s. doesn't really have confidence. the gulf states in the arab world do not. i have the idea we'll take them from barely hanging on to the west bank and plop them into gaza on the back of an israeli tank and expect them to run it is crazy. if you listen to the language that jake sullivan used, he did an interview when he was in israel, he called. he said the palestinian authority could come into gaza in a revamped and reformed way. so i think that's the administration's way of saying, in principle we're okay with the palestinian authority. it has to look a lot different than it does now.

which means, it's probably not going to happen. >> dan senor, thank you. we'll show you live images this morning of a large volcanic eruption in iceland. incredible video. lava flowing in all directions. officials say it's about 2.5 miles long and growing quickly. this eruption not unexpected but it was larger than predicted and comes after the region had been experiencing weeks of intense earthquake activity since late october, promoting officials to -- prompts officials to evacuate 4,000 people from a nearby fishing town earlier this month. glow from the volcano is lighting up the sky, so much so that it can be seen from the capital of reykivek. police are warning people not to get to too close. but look at the pictures on tv. that's wild. >> just remarkable. this morning, interesting new reporting from axios that suggests president biden doesn't realize how old he comes across

to some voters. this is reportedly causing tension across his team. and happening right now in china, rescue crews are working to reach earthquake survivors in sub zero temperatures. at least 113 people killed, hundreds more injured after 5.9 magnitude earthquake struck the northwest region late monday night. officials say that earthquake was followed by nine aftershocks. that magnitude 3 and above. new video overnight that shows just how it was rocking. look at that. that's a gas station there. it cut off water and electricity in some yars, complicating rescue efforts. this is china's deadliest earthquake in nearly a decade. back in a moment.

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did we peak your interest? you can get two unlimited lines for just $30 each a month. there are no term contracts or line activation fees. and you can bring your own device. oh, and all on the most reliable 5g mobile network nationwide. wireless that works for you. it's not just possible, it's happening. ♪ i'll just say it. biden is too old. and congress is the most exclusive nursing home in america. washington keeps failing because politicians from yesterday can't lead us into tomorrow. >> that's a new campaign ad from republican presidential candidate nikki haley. it is not subtle. taking a shot at president biden's age. the president's age has been one of his greatest campaign liabilities as he sooks to extend his time in the white house if he wips re-election to

the age of 86. he doesn't realize how old he comes across at times. saying, quote, president biden's reluctance to acknowledge his limitations caused tension. joining us is alex thompson. alex, i'm fascinated by the reporting. when you talk about tension on the team, what does that lead to internally in the west wing? >> you know, it really leads to a clash over the schedule in particular. because this is sort of where they think that things can go awry. essentially a lot of aides that i have talked to have been struck that biden behind closed doors repeatedly says, i feel so much younger than my age. he says it so often and with such real sincerity that there's become this tension he overextends himself. aides feel he doesn't know his own physical limitations and tries to do too much. that has this adverse effect

where he ends up wearing himself out. even though he is doing more events, he actually presents as more tired and get these poll numbers that show that over 70% of voters have serious concerns about him doing a second term. >> you also write about the first lady's role in all of this. jill biden. you talk about how -- and she and her team are so deeply involved in the president's day to day schedule and you quote her as saying joe is working too hard that she would tell his then chief of staff joe biden recalled in his memoir promise me dead. he's exhausted. he's not sleeping. it's going to kill him. you raise that now. why? >> well, there are a few different things. so jill biden has an extraordinary amount of influence over the president's schedule. now, it's usual for first ladies to keep an eye on the schedule. it is not so normal for a first lady to be crafting the presidential schedule. part of it is because her role

is really that of a protector. she recognizes that for the president going back to that moment in that memoir can overextend himself. now, when joe biden wrote that in his early 70s. at this point she is very involved in making sure he gets enough rest and pushing him on his diet, trying to get him to eat more fish and salmon and a little less junk food. she is very much in this role of making sure that the president, who is the oldest president ever, is staying healthy, getting enough rest and being able to present as vigorous going into this re-election. >> alex, it was always fascinating to me that it was the president to your point, as your reporting shows here, who was pushing to add more events. was agreeing to events on the phone when he was talking to lawmakers without his team actually knowing. was having the late night phone calls with the old friends, checking in. and it was the first lady and his team that were trying to rein things back in.

the question is, it runs counter to the assumption you see sometimes from people that he's not with it. he doesn't have vigor. he isn't out there in a way that doesn't make him look 81 years old. and how does that translate? if that makes any sense. if you look at this "new york times" reporting that the new poll that just came out showing he is losing young voters. you make the point that this contributes into everything. donald trump winning young voters, which is a deathknell for a biden campaign if that turns into a reality. what does the team say about that? >> well, this is why -- exactly why there's a push to sort of rein him in and get him to do -- get him to do a little bit less and make sure that he gets enough rest so that he can present as more vigorous. because some of it is not just the number of events you do. it's how you look when you do the few events that you do do. and that's sort of where this tension is going. to your point, i think everyone that i've talked to on the team is really struck and think basically what biden is doing at

his age is extraordinary. i think the tension comes is that he does not understand that he cannot do as much as he did 10, 15 years ago. and is there a way that they can sort of rein him in order to ensure he is at the top of his game at all times. this is where this delicate dance goes into place, you have to tell the president of the united states, no, you probably shouldn't do that event. >> that's a job for the first lady, not staff. it's really interesting and nuanced reporting. thank you so much, alex thompson. new legal setbacks for two of former president trump's top allies. what's next for actor jonathan major after being found guilty of assaultiting his form girlrlfriend. stay with h us.

♪ welcome back. you're looking at new pictures of a house burning in a flood zone just west of new york city. result of a powerful storm that slammed into the entire east coast over the weekend and yesterday killed at least four people from south carolina to maine. some places got up to seven inches of rain, putting rivers at or above flood stage in several states. and more than 600,000 people are still without power this morning. this morning, there are major legal setbacks for two of former president trump's top allies. a federal appeals court rejected former white house chief of staff mark meadow's bid to try to move his georgia election interference case from state court to federal court. the opinion of the 11th circuit undercuts meadow's claim husband alleged actions were connected to his official duties in the trump white house. whatever the chief of staff's role with respect to state election administration, that

role does not include altering valid election results in favor of a particular candidate. >> this comes as we learn that rudy giuliani is getting sued again by shaye moss and ruby freeman. the two former georgia election workers who just won 150 million defamation against giuliani. the women are asking a judge to permanently prohibit giuliani from making statements against them. >> very big setback for mark meadows. not surprised. it turns out that tieing to interfere with an election is not part of anyone's federal job description. mark meadows is not alone in making this argument. we have now seen about half dozen or so people, including donald trump, in various context try to argue that, well, what i was doing before january 6th was part of my job as president, as in mark meadows' case chief of staff. jeffrey clark's case, part of the justice department. they have lost every one of these rulings across the board in state courts and federal

court. it's important to note, three-judge panel of the famously conservative 11th circuit. unanimous 3-0 ruling and the judge who wrote it, judge prior, a long-time staunch conservative. he's actually -- was on donald trump's short list for supreme court. donald trump mentioned him by name as a potential supreme court justice. and this opinion just completely shreds meadow's position that what he was doing was somehow within the scope of the job. >> he has two steps left. i don't think they will. i think it's a unanimous 3-0 opinion. there's not much ambiguity about it and he can and surely will ask the u.s. supreme court to take it. as for whether they'll take it, i agree with you. your expression is -- >> i don't think they would. >> i agree. on the one hand, it's a constitutional issue. it's a big issue. on the other hand, there's no real diversity of opinion here.

there's pretty much unanimity and not much ambiguity about it. i think they'll stay hands off and let this sit as the final word. >> i love when you talk about the supreme court like i talk about college football. >> i can do both, by the way, for the record. >> that's so true. you can, elie. ambidextrous. >> i want to play something from rudy giuliani and i'll explain why. listen. >> never, never, never did any of those jurors see a single piece of evidence that many americans have seen about how these women acted that would have been totally contrary to the -- to their unrebutted, uncorroborated testimony. it's a sham of a trial. >> sham of a trial that giuliani chose not to testify. shaye moss and ruby freeman were awarded nearly $150 million here. they have moved to sue him to basically get him to stop telling lies. which he's continued to do in the wake of this. is this something that could --

actually has legs? >> first of all, we have to call this out every time. what a disgrace by rudy giuliani. everything he said was a lie. what he said about shaye moss and ruby freeman is a lie and what he said about the trial is a lie. he had plenty of opportunity to put on his own evidence. he was not prevented. now, ms. moss and freeman sued rudy giuliani again. they can keep suing him every time he defames them if they want. >> why are they suing him? >> this is where we'll run into a little bit of a legal problem. they're asking the judge to prohibit rudy giuliani from speaking about them. i totally get that. i understand why they want that. the problem is our constitution, the first amendment, is very, very resistant to impose prior restraints. meaning you can say something and then be punished for it. there can be consequences. you can be sued if it's defamatory. if it's criminal, you can be indicted. but what our courts are very, very hesitant to do is prevent

somebody, private individual, the media from saying something in advance. that's called a prior restraint. it's a bedrock principle of our system that we are against. we, all of us, our constitution, our first amendment, do not go in for prior restraints except in the most extraordinary circumstances. so, i don't think they're going to be able to proactively shut rudy up. but you know, you can always have consequences after the fact. >> elie honig, thank you. >> thanks, guys. a woman in ohio suffered a miscarriage, alone in her bathroom. now she is facing potentially felony abuse charges. details on that case ahead. hundreds of synagogues on alert across the country after receiving threatening emails and fake bomb threatats. who ofofficials bebelieve is responsisible.

♪ he was set to be one of the next stars of marvel universe. now at 34 years old, his career is very much in open question. a jury has found actor jonathan majors guilty of assault and harassment of his former girlfriend during a domestic dispute. hours after the verdict, marvel fired the actor from his upcoming projects, including the 2026 film "kang dynasty" named after his character. it happened back in march. major's ex-girlfriend testified that she was assaulted in the backseat of a car after she saw a romantic text message from someone else on major's phone. the actor still looks forward to clearing his name. the actor could face up to a

year in prison for the assault conviction, sentencing is scheduled for february 6th of next year. this morning, synagogues across the country on alert after a series of bomb threats nationwide. the anti-defamation league tells cnn more than 400 jewish institutions across the states received threatening emails since saturday. we're told there's been a sharp increase in what are known as swatting calls. these are prank calls that lure law enforcement to a location under a false pretense a crime has been committed or in progress. joining us now is our chief law enforcement and intelligence analyst john miller. good morning. >> zboorm. >> let's begin with all of these threatening emails and then also the swatting calls. do they have a sense of who is behind them? >> their only sense of who is behind them comes from prior investigations. but what they have found in these instances, particularly targeting jewish schools,

religious institutions have been these have been kids and young adults, both in the united states and outside, using different techniques to mask their computer identity, their telephone identities and so on. >> john, the anti-defamation league said they believe these are hoaxes, but, quote the jewish community doesn't take any threat lightly. we don't have the luxury to ignore them. how does law enforcement both assess the overwhelming amount of threats that are incoming right now and deal with something like swatting calls? >> so it's a complicated question because these emails that went out over the weekend were addressed to multiple locations. so one email would say, there's bombs in your place and it's going to blow up, but it would be addressed to four or six different jewish institutions. looking at that, you pretty well know it's a hoax. i think what people like oren segel from the secure community networks group and others say is, we don't have the luxury

just to say because it appears to be a hoax it is because at some point one of them is not going to be a hoax. so, they have to go through some protocols in those cases. the interesting difference between those and the swatting calls is the swatting calls came in by telephone, usually on voice-over ip where you couldn't capture the number and the individual would called 911 or the suicide prevention hotline and say i'm in this location and give the name of the jewish institution say i'm about to kill myself or i'm about to kill others, which that's just going to generate a police response and likely an evacuation. and remember, with this mass number of hoaxes, the entire motive is to cause disruption. they struggle with how to react without overreacting because part of the goal is to deny the objective. >> while we have you here, and your expertise, can we ask you about a different story. this declassified intelligence

assessment that came out late yesterday that shows basically some key foreign governments attempts to interfere in u.s. elections, 2022 midterms really increased from 2018. we're talking about china, russia, iran and cuba. what stands out? >> this is a fascinating report. it's done by the -- it's done by all of the agencies in the intelligence community. put all of their intelligence and their analysis on the table. and then it's processed by the nic, the national intelligence council, the top analysts from all the intelligence agencies and put into a report which is really a sense of the intelligence community on the overall subject. but what they find is that in the 2022 midterm elections, china and russia in particular followed by smaller players like iran and cuba with niche interests, tried to target changing or influencing election results by social engineering,

bots, fake facebook pages. in the case of china, english-speaking tiktok accounts that were viewed by tens of millions of people over the course of the summer into the fall before the midterms. and what's really interesting about it is they're amplifying existing american issues. they're talking about mass shootings, abortion, the border, immigration and trying to promote candidates that they think will favor their country against those that they think have policy differences. >> sewing chaos. we have seen it before. >> well, it is. and you know, the key to it, though, is what they were looking for and didn't find is they don't see attempts to penetrate computer networks and change votes. they're not messing with the >>, arguably, more effective to some degree. john miller, appreciate it, as always. historic inflation, interest

rate hikes, inno recession, the economy proved to be pretty resilient in 2023. have we turned the corner? a chief economist from moody's is here.

. welcome back. the fed may have done the impossible avoided a recession for now. as the year wind down, the economic outlook going into 2024 is looking positive. the stock market is hitting record highs. has the country turned a corner? we are joined by chief economist for moody's mark zandi. mark, good morning. >> good morning, poppy. >> the recession that wasn't? what do you think? >> yeah, right. yeah. a year ago i think widespread consensus among economists,

policymakers, business people was 2023 would be a year of recession. it didn't materialized. the opposite. it was a pretty good year for the economy. lots of growth. lots of jobs. we saw unemployment below 4%. it's been below 4% more than two years. the last time that happened was in the 1960s. stock prices record highs, housing values record highs and the most recent good news the federal reserve saying they are going to cut interest rates early next year. so that's positive for a lot of households who have taken on credit card debt in the past couple years. >> i had a former white house economic official this week send me the headline from a bloomberg story in 2022, forecast for u.s. recession hits 100%. blow to biden. i am not knocking bloomberg. it's what the forecasts were saying. >> sure. >> you have seen an enjoyable to watch kind of dunking effort by

the treasury secretary to the extent they can dunk if their policy roles. is this durable? is it sustainable? are they right in saying, we old told you so? >> yeah, i think it is. feels like the economy is on solid ground. the key to the american economy is you and i as consumers if we buy things. there is every reason we will continue to do so. lots of jobs. i mentioned the low unemployment. wage growth is moderated, but by design. the fed is trying to get it down so it doesn't fan inflation and it's stronger than the rate of inflation so people's purchasing power is improving. the stocks prices and housing values i mentioned. debt is up particularly for low-income households and i think that's where most of the stress is. across all americans, all consumers, paint with a broad brush, people's debt loads -- people locked in the low rates back a couple, three years ago when they were very, very low through refinancing. the consumer is hanging tough and as long as they do, do their part, you know, i think the

economy will continue to push forward. >> bank of america this week calling for four rate cuts in 2024 for a total of 100 basis points. that's something people would feel. do you see that coming for cuts? >> yeah, i wouldn't argue with that. the fed said three rate indicates, quarter percentage point. four is possible. that goes to the good inflation, inflation statistics look a lot better. the trend lines look good. forecasting inflation isn't easy, but feels like it's going to come in here reasonably gracefully. makes sense to me. that will help. c credit card rates come in. auto loan rates, mortgage rates are already down. so, yeah, i think that will be very helpful. >> is there a lesson for the post-covid economy on the fed doing something it didn't think it could do?

elizabeth warren i think rightly was concerned that you couldn't raise rates like this without increasing unemployment to like four plus percent, four and a half percent. what the fed showed is that maybe you can. what did we learn? >> well, i think a lot of it is idiosyncratic to the thing, the events the last couple, three years that make it unique in many respects. i mean, for example, going back to consumers, a lot of consumers, high-income and middle-income households saved money in the pandemic, excess saving, and that came in handy when inflation was raging a year ago or two years ago. people could draw down the cash sitting in their deposit accounts to supplement their income to maintain their purchasing power. that's unique to the period. households locked in the very low rates that we were enjoying two, three years ago that have

really mar -- a marvelous job getting mortgage rates down and now they are reaping benefits from that. we have to be careful about drawing too many strong conclusions here. a lot goes to the circumstances that we're in. >> mark, for all the reasons that the economic data never seemed to tell, a story any of us were familiar with the last two years, are you confident what we're seeing going forward will make a little bit more sense based on precedent? >> well, you know, phil, you've got to be humble, right? it's a very complex world we live in. lots of moving parts. things are gonna happen, obviously, you know, that we are not anticipating at this point in time. but having said all of that, you know, i'd say i feel pretty good about things. and for the last couple three, four years all the risks felt to me to be on the downside. if i'm wrong, it will be worse than i expect. now the risks feel who are two-sided and that