his boots i'm natasha bertrand at the pentagon and this is cnn >> i'm michael smerconish in philadelphia so who are we are we still the nation of

boundless optimism at enormous opportunity are with the exceptional and indispensable beacon for the world, or are we in our fellow americans? angry, depressed, pessimistic, fearful, are we beaten down by inflation and the presence of millions of migrants who poured across our southern border these two visions of america, one bright, one dark are increasingly the proxies for the two candidates, vice president kamala harris, former president donald trump you might think that voters would gravitate toward the glass half full after all, it worked for ronald reagan in 1984, the uplifting morning in america commercial, still a benchmark against which others are judged barack obama, he embraced the brand of hope. bill clinton literally the man from hope, hope, arkansas that is called vice president harris, a president of joy in his speech at the dnc and then there was oprah and let us choose joe

that same crowd by singing joy, i saw an analysis suggesting that psychologists thought it was excellent advice but donald trump has other ideas searching for select voters. >> he keeps getting darker as noted in usa today, while trump has engaged in rough rhetoric since entering politics in 2015 particularly against migrants, he appears to be ratcheting it up in the final weeks of his third general election campaign in trump's comments, political opponents have gone up in competent to mentally impaired migrants are murderers with bad genes. and world war iii is right around the corner just last night, trump visited aurora, colorado, a denver suburb. the gop, by the way, has not won colorado in a presidential election since 2004. and nobody thinks that colorado is in play this year. but trump was there to say that aurora had been invaded and

conquered by migrants. the city's conservative republican mayor said those claims were exaggerated i used to think that trump's most divisive words were unscripted that he was going rogue, that he was causing conniptions among his season staff after all, if the race is coming down to my neighbors in the philly burbs because as go to the burbs of philly, go pennsylvania, and the nation that would appear to be a losing strategy and message. you're not going to win the moms in doylestown bryn mawr, and westchester with fear, which in genders division but now i realize they're not the intended audience. trump knows he can't win them. everything is baked in at this point. this is not a campaign interested in persuasion. instead, it's all about motivation. and those that he seeking to motivate are individuals who might not otherwise get out to vote jonah goldberg explained it beautifully recently in the la times. he said this it's like

the difference between a film buff who definitely go to the movies this weekend, but isn't sure what to see. and somebody who is interested in one movie, but isn't sure it's worth the effort to go to the theater why not just wait for it to show up on netflix it turns out that there are a lot more weight for netflix voters than there are indecisive film buff voters how many are there? well, remember one-third of eligible voters, about 80 million people sat out the 2020 election goldberg said that trump's apocalyptic rhetoric might turn off my neighbors but could move irregular voters to go to the polls differences on issues like the border abortion, even the economy might not motivate them. but the survival of the country that might be the ticket viewed in this light trump's outlandish statement about eating cats and dogs in ohio or elon musk's recent tweet to his 200 million followers, they begin to make political sense. musk wrote, realize if trump is not elected

this will be the last election far from being a threat to democracy. he's the only way to save it. every time trump says something that causes you to say, i guess he just lost more votes. remember the polls show that the race is neck and neck, in spite of all that he has said it's no longer about the undecideds, it's about motivating those who will otherwise stay home kamala harris has not closed the deal and in the last seven days, the betting market predicted trump has gained $0.09 or nine percentage points, which brings me to today's poll question at smerconish.com. go and vote, which is a more potent election emotion hope, or fear, will just 23 days away from election night. it might all come down to pennsylvania harris holds a narrow edge over trump in pa according to a brand new poll from the philadelphia enquirer, new york times, and siena college just came out this morning. harris at 50 among likely voters to trump's 40

seven in a matchup it's the second recent high-quality poll to show harris slightly ahead in the state a new quinnipiac poll shows harris leading trump by three a new wall street journal poll shows that it's trump by one. it's close. and neither candidate has a clear advantage. election analysts, nate silver predicts pennsylvania likely to be he the tipping point for the entire election it's why this headline on the front page of the new york times, the battle for pennsylvania, which could tip the election, ran this week what makes the state so important for one, it's politically diverse democrats dominate the two largest cities, philadelphia and pittsburgh, but spread out in-between our rural territories favoring republican candidates. and over time, the states, suburbs have become uniquely purple joining me now are two pennsylvania who know a lot about what it takes to win this state, pennsylvania attorney and former democratic congressman conor lamb, he represented the state's 17th

district. he became a rising democratic star for in 2018 when he was one of few democrats to flip a trump district in a competitive swing state. his congressional when said to be used as a blueprint for president biden's 2020 race and charlie dent, he's the senior advisor at our republican legacy, a former republican congressman dent represented the 15th district of pennsylvania for seven terms. his district included key political areas like lehigh and north hampton county some local analysts say bellwether counties like north hampton and erie are likely to predict the 2024 winner, great to have both of you here counter, let me begin with you brand new poll out today says that it's harris by three, maybe four in pencil sylvania. when you go to the internals, i'll put this on the screen and i'll read it aloud. show what's going on. catherine, could we put that up when you ask about the economy, the edge is donald trump's 54, 43, that has grown since last month. and yet, when you ask who helped the working class, it's harris with an edge 51

and 47. i want to ask you, conor lamb about those working class voters who traditionally, their fathers, their mothers supported democratic candidates, but trump has been able to make inroads. what do you see going on? >> well, he's making inroads with a lot of different groups. you know, the story of his success with the white working class, like out here in western pennsylvania is now several, several years old. and i've just been concerned that we haven't seen the democrats necessarily focus on taking back those voters in beaver county in washington in westmoreland county, as much as i would like the scary trend from 2020 is that trump started making inroads as well with latino working class voters and black working class voters in philadelphia. and he's clearly trying to expand on that this time, whereas harris seems to be making gains continually with college-educated voters in our state so you know, she has held her own poll after poll shows her even or ahead and pennsylvania and so she's,

she's clearly holding what we have, but what we need to do in the last three weeks is expand the playing field a little bit. she's going yeari this week, which is full of working class voters. and i'm really looking forward to hear what she says there as her final pitch. >> charlie dent, it's interesting to me that trump has the edge on the economy. and the economy is regarded as the most significant issue to pennsylvania is probably in the nation as well. >> and yet, she's ahead. >> he's not ahead, which tells me that there's a hesitancy. there's that reluctant trump voter. there are people he can't close either. what do you say well, i think part of trump's problem that he's got this low ceiling largely because of his own conduct is the way he conducts himself. >> so even if people might agree with him on some policy, there is something that's holding them back and of course we shouldn't underestimate the potency of the dobbs the abortion issue, postdoc obs. we have not had a presidential election post-dobbs. >> and this is the first one. a lot of particularly women voters are motivated by that

issue so right now the way i see this, pennsylvania is a dead heat and michael, you're your home county of bucks county has one to watch. we want to see because harris is going to win that county, she's going to win it by as much as biden that's a big question. and of course, the bellwether county, north hampton county where you went to school at lehigh university that that county. i don't think a lot of predictions, but i will say this, whichever candidate wins north hampton county is going to win pennsylvania. and probably the presidency, you could probably make the same case about erie county that's what i see happening right now, but it is really, really tight and we talked a little bit about connor mentioned hispanic voters. it's true republicans are doing a bit better with hispanic voters. but in pennsylvania and the lehigh valley were you have very significant hispanic population. they tend to be puerto rican and dominican more heavily and they're not as republican oriented as se cubans, an venezuelans or even to south texas. mexican-america ns for a variety of reasons. but they're moving a little bit as well. so i'm going to keep an eye on the hispanic

vote a little bit. and lehigh valley and elsewhere in pennsylvania connor, what do you make of my thesis? go ahead and pick it apart if you don't agree with it, which is to say he knows he's tapped out. he knows that he has a high floor, a low ceiling, and the play now is not the persuade anybody. it's to try and pull out some couch potatoes who'd before him, but are not inclined to vote it's mostly correct. but the other effect that you see i think is he's just muddied all the waters totally. so that even normal voters have kind of become pessimistic about whoever the next president is and whatever they're going to do. i was talking to a guy that runs a barber shop yet yesterday and he did he voted trump 16 biden, 20 and he's trying to figure out what to do this time and he was telling me he is 60, 40 trump. and it was all premised on the fact that he doesn't think either of them they're going to get anything done. but he's like, look, i know what i'm getting with trump, like i know where inflation was back then. i know what i paid in taxes and what i

earned my shop and then i can compare that to biden when i did worse. and so i'm leaning back toward trump, but the interesting thing about that to me was trump hasn't really close the deal with him either. so while trump's running around talking about cats and dogs, like he's, he's leaving this guy open for us to pick off if harris runs or campaign right in the last three weeks charlie dent, why hasn't she closed it out if he has had such a rocky seven or so weeks. and so many controversial statements and so many faux paus, at least as reported by the media. then why isn't harris further ahead? >> well, trump is a known entity throughout the country and in pennsylvania, but i suspect because people just don't know kamala harris as well and if we're going to focus on pennsylvania a little bit, i think that she has she doesn't have a strong history in the state. she obviously, you know, she's she's not from here and she she had a misstep on fracking when she ran for president the first time came out against that big issue, particularly in western pennsylvania. and i think that

she's had a better define herself and she is still defining herself and making some adjustments. so i think she still has a bit of growth potential left. obviously, we're running out of time, but this has been a very abbreviated campaign and so people are still trying to get to know her. so she has the growth potential. trump's ceiling is where it is about 47 maybe 48%. she can probably do a little bit better, but that remains to be seen at this point. >> conor lamb, i feel like the three of us could pull out john king's big map of pennsylvania, and we could agree on how to color code each of the commonwealth, 67 counties like we know what's going to happen in each of them. it's all a function of margin. and i want to ask you specifically about philadelphia and pittsburgh and whether you think she's going to get the vote, she needs there to offset what's going to happen in central pennsylvania and i'm glad you asked it because if you just look at the color-coded map, it doesn't

tell you, you know, are we winning philadelphia 955 and his many absolute number of votes as high as it needs to be, which it hasn't. >> so your viewers might not know in 2022 we got more democratic votes out of allegheny county where i live out here in western pennsylvania. then we got out of philadelphia for the first time in history, even though feel he has like 400,000 more people and so all i can say is in the last two to four years, i've been out asking everyone smart that i know in philadelphia have you got a handle on this problem? and are we fixing it? and i have not heard a convincing answer to that question yet, so i don't know what it's going to be that allows us to turn that around and get more turnout on that side of the state. i will say in allegheny county here, which includes pittsburgh you know, we've been increasing our vote share every time. so i think we have a handle on it out here. it's a little smaller, a little easier to manage, but philadelphia's an issue for us charlie dent, a psa if we might, for the rest of the country because we don't begin the pre canvassing process of our ballots until election day

itself. >> this could be one of these cities where there's a red mirage and blue wave, meaning at night it looks one way and by morning it looks completely different. would you say something about our ballot tabulation process and how everybody just needs to kind of keep their powder dry yeah, our election process is very good in pennsylvania, but because the legislature has been unable to pass a law to allow the processing of these mail-in votes before election day. >> i think voters should expect a little bit of a delay in the actual tabulation. it might not be four or five days like 2020 20 but it could be an extra day or two. so i would not panic, but you could have that red mirage and by the way, i just tell everybody michael watch to philadelphia suburbs. it's true what connor said that in philadelphia actually donald trump perform better in 2020 and philadelphia than he did in 2016. that was the only county in pennsylvania where he did a little better it's those

collar counties where you're from, you know, bucks, montgomery, chester, delaware, what's see what the margin is coming out of there? that's probably going to determine the election. biden won it by 285,000 votes and hillary won it by 185,000. that's 100,000 vote differential. that's going to be the difference. i suspect again, in the 2024 elections. so keep a close eye on bucks counties especially conor lamb, charlie dent. >> i really appreciate both of you. thank you so much for being here i want to know what everybody thinks at home. go to my website at smerconish.com, vote on today's poll question, which is a more potent election emotion he said, hope, or is it fear hit me up on social media. i'll read some responses throughout the course of the program. what do we have, catherine from the world of twitter x, fear is the most powerful persuade and tool that's why democrats called trump a threat to democracy. even though it's completely imaginary. well, timothy kind of saying to me, hey michael very interesting observation here i am talking about how the message coming out of the dnc was all one of joy and the

oprah singing joy, et cetera, et cetera. his observation is yes, but they called trump a threat to democracy, so they're playing the same card but not to the extent that he is i just i wanted to get off my chest and i think that i did at the beginning of the program today, but there's a method to this this is not just him going rogue. this is not just him like taking the script and ripping it up. no, no, no, no, no it's much more calibrated than that as i think i explained up ahead, how much of an influence does climate risks have on where you choose to live? would you relocate from the south and the midwest? what the data is now telling us about where americans are choosing to live in the face of extreme weather. and be sure to sign up for my smerconish.com daily newsletter when you're voting on the poll question steve breen drew this for us this week did nine on cnn

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captioning is brought to you by you, cora, help maintain a healthy urinary tract with you, cora, having utis for ten years, you cora, we make uti relief products. >> we also make pro act urinary tract health products. you corps is a life stage today at your core.com florida, leaving a devastating path of destruction in its wake with winds topping 140 miles per hour. >> it caused catastrophic damage. early estimates plays property damage in the billions communities in the tampa bay area. now, grappling with water shutoffs, power outages, entire neighborhoods, still underwater. the costs of these storms keep rising with early assessments for helene, pointing to a staggering 47.5 billion in property damage, up to 30 billion in uninsured flood losses in fact, new homebuyers can now view climate risk data on platforms like zillow highlighting how crucial this issue has become for everyone, whether fleeing storms or planning their next

move but these aren't just isolated events as we witness more frequent and intense hurricanes like milton and helene, the larger story emerges about how americans are adjusting to a world where climate disasters are becoming the new normal in fact, an article in the new york times this week, explore the unsettling trends of climate driven migration predicting that millions of americans may soon relocate, not just from flood-prone coastal areas, but from regions hit hardest by extreme heat and storms and sea level rise, it's already happening according to research from first street over 3.2 million people have moved out of vulnerable areas like miami and galveston and 7.5 million people are expected to leave current and emerging climate abandonment areas over the next 30 years for a deeper dive into how these climate crises are transforming our landscapes and our lives. let me turn to the man behind. many of these findings. jeremy puerto, the head of climate implications

research at first street, jeremy, thank you so much for being here. so are we at a point now where if you're looking for a home, you say, well, how are the schools, what's the crime rate like? how are the taxes and oh, by the way, how much extreme weather am i going to face? >> yeah. well, first thanks for having me on, but i want to say that we are at that point. >> i think we're at a critical inflection point where for decades we've been seeing increases in the frequency and severity of weather disasters and climate events. >> one of the biggest problems around that exposure, those we haven't seen awareness increase around you know, where, where are these climate events likely to occur? how are people going to be impacted? i think as you start to see data like ours on the elon, real juror on redfin, all of a sudden, people at a critical point when they're buying a home have access to an additional data point around climate. so they have the information around the school qualities you mentioned, the walkability but now you can also start to understand what's my risk today from

climate and how's that going to change it to the future? remember, these are generally 30 year mortgages and people are thinking about that into the future. so understanding climate risks and how that's changing is paramount to make it a smart decision. >> where do you already see this? i referenced miami. i referenced galveston, but where where in the data do you see the impact of migration tied to extreme weather based on climate change already taken place yeah we saw this. we ran a national study is really interesting because of the national narrative has been that people are flocking to risk and in a lot of ways for over the last half century, we've seen this kind of rust belt to sun belt movement in a macro level regional migration to climate risk wildfires in california, hurricanes and texas hurricanes and florida. but what we saw on our study was that if you drill down and you started to look at a more hyperlocal level and you started to understand within

cities and for context about 85 percent of all residential moves every year or more or local as opposed to cross state lines. if you look at those moves, people are taking that information and they're making smart climate decisions. it's in the historic record for the last 20 years in the census that people are responding to climate. they're leaving places that have higher risks. and they're moving to places that don't you have climate risks. think one of the really, really interesting points about this, because i think we're just at the tip of the iceberg, a big driver of this. it was not only the persistent exposure to climate risks, but we're also seeing the insurance industry start to play a big role. >> and that it has housing prices increase, for instance, florida the national average is about $2,500 a year for insurance in florida is about $11,000 and people are responding to that. >> there was a survey that came out that said that about 12% of floridians are planning to move within the next year out of the state because of climate risks. so we are seeing chairman hyperlocal already yeah

something something occurs to me based on your data, take our final 60 seconds and address the political ramification of this. because if you're telling me that the rust belt to the south pattern is going to stop or be reversed, and then we take a census every ten years and we draw congressional boundary lines. this could have profound found impact on the electoral college, among other things talk to me about that absolutely. >> i think as people start to disperse, where we're likely to see people leave some of the traditional areas in the south that people have been moving to. its already starting to happen. within the next decade will likely see people leaving a lot of these climate risky areas moving to areas that are potentially less risky. lot of those in the midwest, a lot of those in the northern part of the country. and we're already seeing that in historic trends where the moving from north to south has essentially gone flat. now we're not seeing those, those dramatic trends anymore. we'll probably see more purple areas versus

because the blue and red, the received the day okay. >> purple is good. purple is good. jeremy. thank you so much. appreciate your analysis thank you sir. here's some social media reaction that has come in during the course of the program. what do we have catherine from the world of x, michael in january when at 17 degrees in philly, and you step in brown slush. what makes you think it's going to be brown slash, i mean white slush, you'll be thinking of florida call me for a great condo on the beach in paradise ai i agree that there's some cognitive dissonance going on. a caller of mine said this week on radio, hey, but 97% of the time it's beautiful and it's warm and it's fun at some point. and i think jeremy made reference to this in a smart way. the insurance markets aren't going to stand for it, that they're just not going to underweight any longer and i'm thinking in the future, don't know if i live to see because it may take a few decades to play out, but this could have a profound impact. one last thing, somebody else called my sirius xm radio program this

week they introduced me to the term half backers. i've never heard it. a half backer is a person who leaves like michigan or wisconsin, or philly and pennsylvania, and they move to florida and it's like this extreme weather. this is not sweet we've got to get out of here. they don't go all the way back. they go back to north carolina. only we just saw an asheville and surrounding areas. what that can be like as well great issue. i want to remind you, hit my website at smerconish.com. answer today's poll question which is more potent as an election emotion, is hope or is it fear still to come your social media reaction by commentary and us diplomacy now in high gear, can american defuse tensions between israel and iran? before it's too late, i'll speak with retired admiral james stavridis, former supreme allied commander of nato, about a path to diplomacy. please make sure you're signing up for my newsletter. better when you're voting on the poll question at smerconish.com, scott status drew this for us this week

another cartoon drawn exclusively for us this week, steve breen culture over the edge. >> people who are watching and then our war world change he had an explosive reverberation tv on the edge tomorrow at nine on cnn i think really going to spend all day streaming college football on directv. can you blame them? they've got the biggest rivalries and bowl games speaking. >> frank, run a slant to the bolded chips. bobby wouldn't hook to the salsa. >> what are you going to do? coach prime. >> don't question you. coach