via the winds more than liebermann at the pentagon. >> this cnn

>> you can pick your poison. i'm michael smerconish in philadelphia were 16 days from the final day of voting. and we all want to know who will be potus 47 you can take your choice of metrics, the betting markets, the stock market, the cultural touchstones, pundits, and the conventional polls. they each tell different stories, but just take a look at those prediction markets where individuals placed bets on the outcome of events. those placing bets on the popular platform predicted now, trading trump at $0.55 a share compared to harris's $0.49 a share better than the crypto prediction platform polymarket had trump and harris deadlocked in early october. now have trump's chance of winning at nearly 60%? according to the wall street journal, this rise likely due to a group of just four accounts who have pumped 30 million in crypto into bets that donald trump will win, then there's the stock market. a strong stock market has often been associated with a higher chance of an incumbent victory if you look the strength of the

dow jones, it shows a 72% probability of a harris victory that number is up from 64% two months ago. another analysis, john kenneth white, is a professor at catholic university for the hill. he'll pine that pop culture is often more accurate than any of the polls take ronald reagan, 1984, he want a large victory while the polls predicted he would win. white says that reaganite values were also prevalent in the cultural zeitgeist. the hit show family ties for example, start michael j. fox is alex keaton a republican growing up in a liberal family is it terrible. >> harry liberal monster terrible tax monster is republican

pop culture favors kamala harris, the bratt candidate, who has the support of taylor swift in an era where the kindness and decency of ted lasso defined qualities opposite those of donald trump are you looking for something more conventional? >> numbers guru nate silver gives the slightest of edges to donald trump right now at abc's fivethirtyeight currently gives trump a 51 in 100 chance of winning and that of course there are the conventional polls. the only tool that's scientifically designed to measure voters opinions. >> the latest cnn poll of polls has harris leading by one point nationally with no clear leader in the majority of the seven battleground states, we don't elect presidents by popular vote. >> if we did, hillary clinton could be ending her second term right now. but the national polls are often a tell in october of 2016, hillary clinton lead trump by eight points nationally eventually

won the popular vote by just two. and of course lost the electoral college. in october of 2020, joe biden was leading trump by 11 points ended up winning the popular vote by just four, while winning the electoral college in each election, trump's vote was underrepresented in the polls. could that be happening this year? nate cohn at the new york times recently showed what a polling miss like we saw in 2016 or 2020 could mean in this election he also analyzed polling data from the midterms if the polls are mistaken as they were in the 2022 midterm election, harris should be in good shape, but if they air as they did in 2016 or 2020, donald trump will win so is there this year a hidden vote for donald trump joining me now to discuss is dr. joshua clinton professor of political science at vanderbilt university in 2020 he lead a task force comprised of media and polling experts from pew llup, cnn, and more they

examined pre-election polling for the american association of public opinion research. joshua, welcome back to the program big picture. w what wen wrong in 2016? in 2020 sure. >> so glad to be here in 2016, the problem was a poll is only as good as the people you have in your sample. in 2016, we saw a big split for the first time based on education that would never actually appear before. and the polls at too many college-educated voters in and not enough kind of, those are the high school less. and in 2016, that kind of those groups voted very definitely college-educated voters, overwhelming for clinton, those were the high score last voted for trump. and so the poles kind of miss that going in 2020, pollsters identified as a problem. and so we thought they were okay. and turns out those a new problem which is basically that we didn't have enough republicans in the polls themselves. and so that's why we saw this understatement about the support for her trauma. and so going into 2024, right. pulsars are trying to fix what happened and try to figure out, do i have enough of

republicans and the right type of republicans are trump voters in my sample. and so we're going to see what happens are the polling misses that you're describing, are they trump centric or did they extend further down the ballot while see it's hard to know because we didn't see the same kind of pulling air in 2022. >> so they could be trump-centric because they happen in presidential election years when trump was on the ballot. >> but presidential elections are also different than midterm elections because different voters vote and presidential elections and midterm elections, right? >> the less frequently engaged they vote in presidential elections and midterm elections. and those are precisely the people that are hard to go on the phone or come to get to answer polls. and so we don't really know if it's a trump trump-specific aspect of it, something about the electorate. we don't also know to be honest, where the polls are going to be better because we've tried to make a correction, so we look at 20:22, the midterms and so yes, the polls did historically well, but that just means that there wasn't a systematic bias in favor of the democrats that

republicans like i'm average the average polls still understand the margin by five percentage points so look in michigan for example, the governor's race like they're governor whitmer, like the polling averages either had that tag or her up by five percentage points, which he actually won by ten percentage points. and so the idea that the polls inevitably you're going to understate republicans. maybe that's true and the conventional era when president trump's on the ballot, but it's not not a certainty, especially in an election where 2020 was very weird with the pandemic. you this year, it's kind of who knows what the electorate is going to look like you would agree with me that if they're wrong this year, they're all wrong because they're all telling the exact same story that it's probably at this juncture a harris one-to-two national survey advantage. >> and in the battleground states pretty much everything is within the margin of error, like if there were a credible poll that we're an outlier in my show introduction today, i would have said, but of course,

there is this survey, but there's not one that i'm aware of no, that's right. >> i mean, this this cycle you see everyone's kind of very closely tylee, everyone's essentially getting tagged results now that's because the data showing that are because we're trying to make adjustments to kind you know, we know 2020s very close. we think it's going to be closer this time. and so it's hard to know, right? and so but i think about the difficulty that period election polling faces, right? if i'm trying to call registered voters and i call 100 of them like only five of them answer polls on to answer a poll, right? so right off the bat, i know i've got a small group of individuals, and so now we need to try to make them look like what the electorate looks like. but i don't know that i need to make an assumption as a pollster about what i think the 2024 election is going to look like. if i'm wrong with that right, then my poll is going to be off. and so it's a really, really hard task to try to get thousand people and we just don't have the precision that we sometimes need in the convention lecture in a tied race of polls, not going to be the tell you who's up by one percentage point or

not? >> so it's a very okay. >> so you're you are an academic with expertise in this area. i explained your credentials and the role that you played in studying the misfires of 2016 and 2020 jess, can you put up on the screen today's poll question? i want to see if josh cares to weigh in on what he would say in response to this what do you think is the best predictor of election outcomes? the betting markets, the stock market, traditional polling like we've discussed, pundits and analysts or cultural trends, how would you answer that? >> i mean, i would think mike, my batch production prediction is basically, you know weren't a very tightly tied country, right? so i would look to see what happened last time, right, in 2020, it was a tied race and so right now, my guess is it's going to be something close to that right? which i'm absolute. i have no idea what's going to happen. okay. wait, jake. but respectfully, that's that's not

an answer to my question. >> which of the metrics that i've just identified, do you look at for your dinner conversation and say, well, you know, this is the one well, i mean, i i tried to look at the polls and in some sense enticing what they're saying. but i think the margin of error around those things is so it's like plus or minus five, plus or minus six, which in a tight race it means it means anything, right? so that's putting you down for conventional. i'm recording you as voting for conventional polls that's how i'm recording this vote, your josh. thank you so much. appreciate your expertise. >> my pleasure anytime. >> thank you, sir. social media reaction thus far, what what do we have that we're dealing with here today wouldn't it stand to reason that polls are overcorrecting for passed under polling? yes, john, it would stand to reason it puts to enter reason, but who the hell knows i mean, they were way the heck off in 2016. they were off again in 2020, you would have

said the same thing that when i was sitting here in 2020 and i was i was probably discussing the same issue i think we would have said well, but by now they've they've they've corrected for the way in which they couldn't calibrate the trump vote. but that wasn't the case in 2020 so who knows what he'll be saying in 2028? god willing i want to know what you think. i've already, i've already shown you the poll question. go to my website. at smerconish.com and cast your ballot. what do you think is the best predictor of the election outcome? is that the betting markets are you following the money? is that the stock market, the traditional polling, the pundits, the analysts, or the cultural trends. go vote coming up the final push this week, vice president kamala harris made some media moon. she e sparred with a fox news host, but skip the al smith dinner. meanwhile, her proponent taking shots at her judgment calls and how she's appealing to voters our political panel breaks down how all of this could resonate at the ballot box as voters final buys their choice for

president, don't forget to sign up for the daily newsletter when you're casting your ballot, it's were qataris.com, scott status is one of our cartoonists did nine on cnn i have moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. >> thanks to sky rosie, i'm on my way with clearer skin. three out of four people at 90% clear skin at four months and skype just four doses a year after to starter doses, serious allergic reactions and an increased risk of infections or a lower ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor if you have an infection sinner symptoms had a vaccine or plan to nothing on my skin mean everything you are dermatologist about sky rosie, learn how api can help you save after last month's massive solar flare out in a 24 hour to the day, businesses are wondering what should we do with rigging the next 257 right response? >> around 20% with any

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fire >> i know what i'm not rich as hell well. you can give. you i am not rich as hell. >> i work hard. i scraped to get by donald trump wants to give tax breaks to billionaires, but kamala harris has plans to help but she's going to crack down on price gouging and cut taxes for working people like me. i voted for donald trump before, but this time i'm voting for kamala as attack is responsible for the content of this add my moderate to severe crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis symptoms kept me out of the picture. now, there's sky resy i've got bill significant symptom relief at four weeks with sky resy,

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to the event. and in particular to our great catholic community, very disrespectful trump attending that dinner, handing out insults. >> meanwhile, some democrats breaking with biden as they tried to attract trump voters. as voters prepare to make their final decisions, our political panel is here on how this could all resonate with those elusive undecided voters back with us, bakari, who are your people sellers is a cnn political commentator, salena zito, the trump whisper, national political reporter for the washington examiner, and a contributor for the wall street journal, bakari. i want to show a short clip of the brett baer for interview. i know we all watched, but i want to make my point. roll it >> and with all due respect, that clip was not what he has been saying about the enemy within that he has repeated when he's speaking about the american people that's not what you just showed. >> he was asked about that

that's not what you just showed. an off unfair question that we asked him. >> he didn't show that. and here's the bottom line. he has repeated it many times and you and i both both know that cari i thought she did well, i thought that this was a capable and assertive kamala harris that i did not see in the view that i did not see with howard stern and that i did not see with stephen colbert. >> and my question for you is did the campaign wait too long to allow her to step into that kind of an environment? >> no, i don't think that's the case, but yes, she was very capable. i'm gonna tell you one other place that you actually saw michael, which was actually the debate stage, where anybody who's intellectually honest will tell you that she showed command and she actually won that debate as well. i mean, i i have a great deal of respect for brett baer that may give me castigated on on twitter. but he tried to i do too, but he tried to gotcha moment. and he failed. and most people when they're in that moment would realize that's the wrong clip.

it happens to us all the time on tv, apologized and tried to play the wrong the correct clip he didn't do that. he tried to got-you moment and failed. but kamala harris is doing extremely well and whether or not it's the best interview she's done all cycle, which was with charlemagne tha god, which msnbc and cnn played in full, or brett baer or her town hall with anderson cooper the narratives are completely flipped and michael, because you have someone who is now avoiding those things, who's skipping out on cnbc interviews or nbc interviews, or 60 minutes or the shade room refuses to debate again, refuses to release his medical records. who meanders on stage, who talks about incoherence statements and then says it's the weave and donald trump trump and so they get to him. well, i'm just saying i'm gonna get to him, but i'm just saying let me just ask you this. yes, sir. okay. so let me ask you this. you would agree with me. she made a mistake in not going to the al smith dinner? >> no, not at all. so listen, let's not that's not where voters are. i mean, she it's funny about a catholic voters

are represented in that room in new york, right? a lot of catholic voters in new york the irony in this, in the irony and shaking your head, both of you all to this, is that in 2016 hillary clinton made one of the biggest fumbles and political history, which was not going to wisconsin and you blast at her, i'm sure you did, michael. i'm sure selina did as well, blasted her for not going to wisconsin, particularly after the results were called. she went to wisconsin. she was in wisconsin on this day. she made not one, not two, but three stops in wisconsin meeting voters where they are and so my problem am i pushed back is simply this. if you want to say she's disrespecting catholic thanks. bye. not going to the dinner. then. what do you say to someone who, you cheated on their wife with a porn star and paid hush money or actually i'm saying, i don't know saying different. >> that's like saying that when trump goes into a barbershop and queens, he is only speaking to the black men in that queens barbershop. >> i got to get to selina selina, let me focus on trump now, i thought that he was

undiscipline and largely unfunny and here's a clip that stands out in my mind. it's a him talking about bill to blasio rolling we have another former new york city mayor with us, frankly easily the worst in our history and it's not michael that i can tell you. >> i'm surprised that bill lazio was actually able to make it tonight to be honest, he was at terrible in there. i don't give a if this is comedy was a terrible. >> selina, just another of those episodes where i say it, it would seemingly have been so easy for him to just rein it in and take the win. she wasn't even there. your response? >> i thought it was funny i'm going to be that person. >> i thought it was funny. look, it's a roast, a roast is a lot of insults as a catholic

and someone who you know, before they were ever politically aware, you always kind of watched and paid attention to the al smith dinner and you're like, why? well, because it was the biggest benefit from the al smith dinner is catholic charities. what is catholic charities do? it helps the homeless. the displaced from natural disasters it, it feeds food pantries it's always been a point of pride among catholics that something that is part of our faith is so charitable for people in need and a roast is a roast is to roast it's supposed to l though you, it's supposed to take a punch and to be honest, i heard this from catholic voters. they, their thoughts where she did not roast trump in her video when she because she didn't go, but she roasted catholic and i didn't think

but not i'm not i'm not approved. i am not approved and i am a cafeteria catholic myself. i'm taking some and leaving some on the tray. okay. i just thought that he was he was tone deaf in many respects. i want to play another clip. here's something else that donald trump said role that tape, i want to yes, bakari mayor adams. >> i'd like to poke from funded eric, but i'm going to be nice. i just want to be nice because i know what it's like to be persecuted but the doj for speaking out against open borders we were persecuted. i was persecuted and so, uh, you don't let it you're going to win when why was donald trump being so kind to new york city mayor eric adams, who's now under indictment, put put up on the screen, please. >> the axios chart showing the support of black men kamala harris, bakari sellers, can we get that graphic? she's got an issue with black men and i thought that was a way of him making some outreach. i'm

showing i don't know if you have returned, but i'm showing donald trump on the verge, perhaps of getting 18, 19, 20% of black male voters. why is he doing so well so there are a couple of things and let me just take a moment and take a deep breath with the question. >> the first is donald trump and eric adams are not persecuted. they're prosecuted those are two vastly different things. my father was persecuted in 1968 when he was protesting in the orangeburg massacre. and with the prison that's persecution. these two men are being prosecuted for their crimes that's first. the second thing is if you think you can make inroads with african american males, in particular, by talking about some similarities with criminality, then you're ignorant and you're intellectually dishonest. if you want to say that, i am going to make inroads with african american males because i've been indicted and i've been found guilty, or i have a mug shot than that actually you think that's what he was doing?

no. i don't even think it was doing. >> no. i know. i actually think that he, you know, i think i don't think he's smart enough to do that. one. i think he and eric adams have two things that are in common, which is they put their ego above anything else? and i just think he was identifying with someone else in the room who happened to be there, who's under indictment. i think he looked around the room and there was nobody else in the room that was either under indictment are facing charges. and let me just tastes 30 30 seconds. i might have time selina, i need you to quickly respond to this issue. why why is trump seemingly doing well with black men? what's the problem with harris in that regard because voters are not voting by identity, their voting by circumstance. >> and you see it not just with middle-class blacks. you see with middle-class whites, hispanics named the ethnic group that is people are voting more likely that and it's sort of a blind spot. i think that we have in the media because we always look people by race and sometimes people vote economy

and community. this is where i live in this community. my communities having a hard time that's how i'm voting i appreciate both of you. i wish we had more time. we'll come back and do this again. i hope before the election and i want to remind everybody else go to the website. it's smerconish.com this hour answer. today's poll question, which is the best predictor of the election outcome. all the choices are on your screen right now still to come your best and worst social media reactions to my commentary. up ahead legendary journalist bob woodward is here to discuss his new book. it's called war, which has already making headlines after unveiling a behind this scenes look into the biden administration's handling of global crises. and while you're there, sign up for the newsletter, jack ohman drew this for us this week before election day, vice president harris basis voters and takes the pressing questions lie. >> anderson cooper moderates he's a cnn presidential town hall. kamala harris, wednesday at nine eastern on cnn

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