opening no, i don't championship rings and faced a new look in the timberwolves and laker sees a father, duo take the court begins tuesday at 6% of ikea on tnt usual social media platforms. follow me on x, formerly known as twitter and everywhere else. and we love hearing from you during the course of the program. >> you're an idiot. it's widely known those betting markets are highly suspect. do for job. hey, doug, i gave you like what, four or five different alternatives. that was one of them. and i have to say we had a great guest here recently, making the case that the betting markets have actually been more reliable, then have been the other components that we offered you and we noted that relative to the one market crypto seems to have made a heavy push from just four different accounts. so i'm giving you all the data. you can pick your poison.

what's next? always underestimate the gop. trump was exceptionally hard in 2016 because so many non-voters stepped in, but that's baked into the cake now, right except lisa marie, you would think that if that were recognized post 2016 than 2020 would have been more accurate and it wasn't i mean, you can pick your different survey that you're relying on. but at this stage, at this stage, in 2020 the biden victory looked like in the popular vote, it was somewhere between nine and 11% and it ended up being for and at this stage in 2016 that hillary victory in the national popular vote looked like it was somewhere in the 6% range, and it was to, so it didn't self-correct now, where are we today relative to that, nobody seems to know more social media reaction none of the above, right? i didn't give you that. i didn't give you that this

has to be the most difficult election to predict by any predictor. a statistics professor in college said you can make statistics show anything you want. why bother gg kelly? she's we've got like four different people, three different people involved in that one but they'd all have to be wrong. they would've i said to josh, my guest in the first portion of the program, they're all telling the same story, which is why when this ends, which we hope is two weeks from tuesday they they're either going to have a banner cycle because we will say, well, the polls really nailed it, where they're all going to be off course because i for one can't identify a reputable pollster that is saying something totally different from all the others one more, if we've got time for it and i think that we do maybe even to what is the point of pre-election polling seems like it's just entertainment. maybe we should focus on what's known. it is partly entertainment. it's also a guideline that the candidates are using as they decide where to spend their time, their money. remember, if you want to know what they think don't look at what they're saying, look

at exactly where they're traveling. and where they're spending their money in a different candidates at different times in this cycle, have tried to say that this states in play or that states in play, but they don't spend money there. they don't spend time there. and that's how you know, that's not the case. okay. one more here it comes. more social media reaction. kamala was too smart not to attend. trump was vindictive and nasty, not at all in the spirit of the dinner, cursing like a drunken sailor. listen, denise i'm not approved. i love a good roast you're looking at somebody now who watch that? tom brady roast on a loop and it was 100 times more rubab than the catholic charities al smith dinner. i thought two things. he missed the moment. he was too nasty. he didn't need to be could have risen above. he was the same way that he wasn't 2016 when hillary was in the room and i said it then and as for the vice president, she should have been there politically. it was just unwise not to be it's perceived by as disrespect by

upwards of 20% of the electorate. in this case, i disagree with bakari, with whom for whom i have the utmost respect. it's, it's not just catholics in new york in that room it was a prism to see catholics nationally will say so to calm two time pulitzer prize winning journalist bob woodward joins me to discuss his revealing new book don't forget to vote on today's poll question we're qataris qataris.com, which is the best predictor of the election outcome on your screen are all the choices when you're voting sign-up for the free and worthy daily newsletter steve breen drew for us this week political analysis do you have questions now biden said, the right, all stay away. why did trump pulled out of a 60 minutes? i love pulling out lose network of i got news for you tonight at nine on cnn. no matter what kind of team you got a brush or will be electric cleans better with one simple touch, floral bees, dennis

inspired round brush it, hudson cleans and gets in-between them for 100%. cleaner, tie your perfect clean starts with oral-b scout is protected by some para trio and he's in it to win it some parick. >> a trio is the first to win triple protection heartworm disease, no problem with some parity trio. this drug class has been associated with neurologic adverse reactions including seizures, use with caution and dogs with a history of these disorders for winning protection, go with sympatric, a trio. >> when i was five, i began getting sexually abused by my stepfather and he got me pregnant when i was 12 occurred in states with total abortion bans in trump, did this women and girls needs to

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legendary journalist bob woodward has chronicled presidencies from richard nixon to joe biden, made famous by his watergate reporting. >> he's a two-time pulitzer prize winner and the author of 23 books his latest war gives a behind the scenes look at the biden administration's handling of global crises from countering a potential nuclear threat to navigating simultaneous conflicts in ukraine and russia. the book made headlines with the allegation that at the height of the pandemic, former president trump privately shipped covid tests, the vladimir putin spoke to him as many as seven times after for he left the white house in 2021. trump's campaign denies those claims, though, when asked about those reported phone calls this week, trump said this if i did, it's a smart thing. >> if i'm friendly with people, if you have a relationship with people that's a good thing, not a bad thing the book also explores the political and personal wars that biden fought during his presidency, accommodating with his decision to drop out of the

2024 presidential election, joined now by phone, is bob woodward, nice to have you here? >> given your stature, your book has been widely reviewed. everybody seems to pick out a different nugget. bob, i'm putting on the screen some of the headlines that the book has drawn i would think most notably it's your reporting about what mark milley said about donald trump calling him a fascist or putin and the covid, tests what i've wondered having read the book and i have, by the way, an answer to this question of my own what is it that you think that pertains that others that others have missed and are not talking about that you thought they would have well, from john, john adams which he says, power always thinks it as a great soul and that's what we see operating here with

trump thinks he has a great soul that he knows what he's doing and that these on top of things. >> but if you really study it and then i've done three books on him. i spent as the year 2020. interviewing him 19 times, you see he does not have to be successful in anything you need to have a plan. he does not have a plan. he just comes up with whatever comes into his mind, thinking that he's powerful, he's got this great so and the other problem he has is there's no team backing him up. we know a us to have producers. i need to editors. you can do any of these things alone and trump is trying to do it alone. and one

is working for him politically ended. it is, it is tragic that somebody would think they can be precedent by themselves and never really having anyone back them up here's my answer to the question of what is in bob woodward's book that people should be spending more time discussing. >> i'm gonna give you two things that really jumped off the pages to me. first of all, how close we came to nuclear conflagration with russia in 2022 when it seemed that putin was going to go so far as to detonate a dirty bomb for cover so that he could use a tactical nuclear weapon. and the likelihood of that happening was put at 50% by those around president biden. will you speak to that yes, it wasn't just people around president biden. >> it was the intelligence

assessment it turns out that we have excellent intelligence. in fact, much better than i think is. well, as i know, is gen really published? and so when they saw there's a 50% chance in the white house and the national security council they say that that's a 50% chance. it's a coin flip. one of the key people in the biden national purity counsel was saying my god this is the situation like the cuban missile crisis in 1962 that we could have detonation of some sort of nuclear weapon. and also the dirty bomb which would not, would just spread radioactive contamination. but that's enough of a disaster.

so what i'd found from my reporting is much more dangerous time much higher risk and nuclear weapon, but he certainly said kind of publicly would. but then when the intelligence people got good information about what was going on in the kremlin they were horrified about how close we were something else, bob, that i learned from your book that i don't think has received the attention that it warrants, frankly, because there are so many other significant things in your book is that four days after the 10-7 attack, the israelis have had bad intel and they were convinced that they needed to launch a preemptive strike against hezbollah. >> and you say for five hours

and 12 minutes jake sullivan believed that we were in inches of the outbreak of an all-out war in the middle east. will you quickly speak to that yes. >> i made what was very evidenced that prime minister netanyahu was arguing that israel needed to conduct a preemptive strike and of course, that would start a major war in the middle east. he claimed he had intelligence that showed this and that paragliders were coming in and when they finally got down to this is the risk of making snap decisions turned out they weren't paraglides editor's, but birds birds incredible. hey, the point i was trying to

make is that this new book of yours for which i congratulate you is chock full of revelations and people ought not to go buy those stories that say, here are the five things you need to know about bob woodward thank you, bob. i appreciate your being here thanks so much checking in on your social media comments. what do we have two great book by the way, just curious if trump was so unfunny in your opinion, what kind of jokes would you have preferred to hear? in my opinion, they were appropriate for this event, even the cardinal was laughing, know, get off your high horse no, i'm not on a high horse. okay. i have i have a rather profane and revolved sense of humor i just wouldn't have said in front of the cardinal and other catholic dignitaries the things that he said. and by the way, some of the lines were funny. but some of them, if it were snl and they did like the wednesday read, they would have said, we're not doing that skit because that's a bomb. like nobody in trump's orbit,

i guess told him so or was he willing to listen to it? just it just didn't need to be nasty. he could have risen above and claimed victory based on the fact that the vice president wasn't in the room. and i think that was a blown opportunity and that's my opinion. and i'm sticking to it. go vote at smerconish.com on today's poll question will give you the results in just a second which is the best predictor of the election outcome. you got all choices there when you're there, subscribe to my free and worthy daily newsletter, you'll get exclusive editorial cartoons. rob rogers drew for this drew for us this week, that cartoon before election day. vice president harris bases voters it takes two pressing questions lie. anderson cooper moderates a cnn presidential townhall kamala harris, wednesday at nine eastern on cnn

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challenge is right under your nose. your name again far, let's see, 26,910 votes, which is the best predictor of the election outcome. >> i am surprised by that a plurality 40% go with cultural trends and then traditional polling. and then the stock market, the betting markets, and the pundits. i thought that the stock market was going to be the preferred measure. but cultural trends really, you're looking at the music you're looking at the television, you're looking at the vibe of the country and you're saying like, here's the national mood and which of the two of them seems to suit it or fit with it. interesting. >> more, keep voting if you haven't, if you haven't, social media reaction from today's program, what else has come in? >> michael betting markets are

the best predictor because people have skin in the game and are not just betting yeah, that's that was what harry crane said to us when he was a guest here within the last couple of weeks that when you've got skin in the game, it takes the emotion out of it, although i have to say just parenthetically that jake paul is a pretty heavy favorite by the oddsmakers against mike tyson. but the betting markets favor tyson. and i think it's a bunch of like older guys like me who are making an emotional bid for tyson because we love the fact that tyson's getting pack in the ring. maybe i'm wrong about all that. more social media reaction. what else came in why do you think trump is doing so well with black men? i get you're saying he's doing better than he did last election, but 20% is hardly doing so well, please be honest with your choice of words chess to do this, do you have the graphic that we used? it was from axios where it showed what's going on among black men in this election. if just tell me yes or no, can you

put it up on the screen real quick if you do? yes. no. >> okay. it's coming is he doing great? >> no. but if he ends there it is. there's where he is. he's somewhere in the 19 to 20% range and look at the decline. look at the decline between 2020 and 2024 going from 79 to 70%. if those numbers hold and if turnout is where it has been traditionally that will decide the election, that's the basis for my statement. one more, please. social media reaction. what do we have? maybe even two like the last football ap poll, there's only one that matters, and that is the last one? yes, greg, you're absolutely right. the election wraps up two weeks from tuesday and more than 10 million have already voted. so please get out there and cast a ballot. don't rely on any of this. i agree with with that observation. one more, i think i can get it done real quick. here we go. why are you upset?

she didn't appear at the roast, trump didn't even attend biden's inauguration for christ sake. well, theresa, be if you were tuned into by program back then in 2020, you would know that i was offended that he did. why can't i call balls and strikes and tell you when each side is mistaken and not just one, because that's what i seek to do. i'm not equating the inauguration without smith, but each should have attended. >> both of them tim at nine sure. >> this supreme prince business cards. >> but we also print these and those and a grave that we print your brand on everything. so customers can notice you remember you even fall in love with you if you need it, we print it with 25% off for new customers at misprint cars. >> ever since we introduced him to the farmers dog, it's changed his quality of life feels number twos are really getting better better who better you should go

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