tv Smerconish CNN November 9, 2024 6:00am-7:00am PST
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am michael smerconish in philadelphia. the biggest surprise in an election that was full of them is that donald trump had 50%. count me among many who said he had a high floor and low ceiling. as president he was never above water, according to gallup's approval rating never hit 50%. has average while in office was 41%. in the 2016 election he received 46.1% of the popular vote while winning the electoral college. in the 2020 election his vote share rose slightly to 46.9% as he lost the electoral college . this time around there was no robust third-party movement to siphon votes from his opponent . still, he never ran a campaign based on persuasive. after the events of january 6th, two impeachments, four no indictments, one conviction on 34 counts and countless comments that seem self-destructive he was always -bent on motivation not
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persuasion. the "new york times" would say at times mr. trump could be so crude and self-indulgent on the stump and it aids wondered if he was engaged in, how much average behavior voters would tolerate. yet trump won . and with the majority. he made some stunning graphic gains, doug's osnic who advised clinton and more than 50 senators and governors observed this, the 2024 election marks the biggest shift in the right in our country since ronald reagan's victory in 1980. trump's victory was due to support from a multiracial working-class group of voters. the coalition includes one in three voters of color who voted for trump. trump increased his support with hispanic voters double digits compared to 2020. jump carried hispanic men by 10 points. trump improved to support with voters ages 18 to 29 by 10 plus points. most amazing is he did it in the
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context of nonstop documentation and reportage in the media of everyone of what the "new york times" called crude and aberrant statements. sometimes , the application was too predictable and too loud. case in point, the blowback about a joke about puerto rico told during his madison square garden rally, the joke was indefensible, but it was a joke but it was not told by donald trump. it dominated the next three days of the new cycle and what was now the final 10 days of the election. yet, when all was said and done, trump did better among hispanics in 2024 than he did in 2020 . for the past four days i have been reading him a consuming takes on the american election trying to understand what exactly happened. the most provocative and the most profound, in my opinion, was written by carlos lozada, published online on the "new york times". it inspires
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today's poll question, which i will get to. the headline on this essay, stop pretending trump is not who we are. this is a long wrath but i will be that. there have been so many attempts, he writes, to explain trump's hold on the nation's politics and cultural imagination to reinterpret him as aberrant and temporary. normalizing trump became an affront to good taste to norms, to the american experiment. we cannot let go such allusions, trump is very much a part of who we are. nearly 63 million americans voted for him in 2016, 74 million did so in 2020 and once again enough of voters in enough places cast their lot with him to return him to the white house. trump is no fluke. trump-ism is no fat. after all, what is more normal than a thing that keeps repeating? carlos lozada writes , in recent years i often wonder if trump has changed america , or revealed it . that will be the pope question. i decided he
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change the country by revealing it. after election day 2024 i'm considering an addendum, trump has changed us by revealing how normal and truly american he is. this is my favorite graph , it sums it all. throughout trump's life he has embodied every national fascination money and greed in the 80s, sex scandals in the 90s, reality television in the 2000's, social media and the 20 10th, why would we not deserve him now? today's poll question asked that, has donald trump changed america? or has he revealed it? that essay reminded me of something that michael wolfe recorded about donald trump in his book fire and fury. wolf tells the story about trump when he was riding high in atlantic city. he was aboard a private flight with friends and he proposes a detour to atlantic city causing one other passage or to voice
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an objection who says, that place is for white trash. a unnamed foreign model, according to michael wolfe says, what is white trash ? trump replies people just like me only they are poor . so true that the billionaire became the champion of the working class whose fathers were largely union members and voted for democrats. the image of donald trump from this campaign that i will most remember, it is not the fight, fight, fi after he was shot. no . it is this spirit taken on a saturday last may at a rally in new jersey . trump was never going to win new jersey, but he attracted 100,000 people, according to abc 7. the jersey shore is where pennsylvania's go to spend our summers, or to spend our one summer a week vacation. the trans are distinctly different graphics, wildwood has been a for the
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white working class. in his speech that day what he would call his weave, he told a story about frank sinatra never eating before a performance. then he told the crowd that he, however, devoured an enormous hotdog the crowd roared. as the campaign progressed, the more these folks were told that they shouldn't, couldn't vote for donald trump, the more they hunkered down. imagine you are a member of a group whose leader is tailoring every day as a fascist, racist, a dictator , you would be asking, what do you think of me ? that is when the wagons were circled. eventually they are called garbage i president biden, even though his own kind would have been wild with people to. so many of trump's campaign statements were indefensible, but maybe voters wanted to reach that conclusion themselves and not be told by a media that look coordinated or celebrities who thought that their talents gave them a license to browbeat. then the
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final weekend before the election, one of the most prestigious posters in the nation said trump was trailing in iowa by three points per trailing and iowa? in a stem paid to give life and at analysis, the media overlooked in emerson college survey released at the same time that said no, trump was up 10 and the hawkeye state as anticipated. the des moines register poll did not deter voters, maybe it motivated them. the final result was trump up by 13 percentage points in iowa. as a lifelong resident of delphia and the surrounding counties him up being the focal point of this campaign has been an interesting experience for me. the emperors and outreach, the commercials, the text , in the weeks leading up to the election i paid close attention to the yard signs in the philly burbs. one caught my eye and immediately after seeing it for the first time i said on my sirius xm radio program that i thought it was tone deaf and it
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would boomerang. it said this, harris-walz, obviously . maybe i should say it as harris-walz , obviously ? as and how could you ever think otherwise? you don't think we would consider voting for him, do you? do you see this house? do you think we would ever step foot in wildwood? we are stone harbor people, we are avalon people, we go to lovelady's. i don't know how many of the wildwood people saw those yard signs, they got the unwelcoming message . i want to know what you think. go to my website and answered the poll question, has donald trump changed america ? or has he revealed it ? as i mentioned latinos voted for trump in much higher numbers than expected in fact, this year latino men broke for trump for the first time with trump received 55% of latino men's votes in 2024 as compared to 43% for kamala harris, in 2020
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biden led among latino men by 23 points. in my commonwealth trump got 42% of the latino vote, almost double what he received four years ago . here in pennsylvania, that is according to the exit polls with how did this happen? my next guest was profiled in the new yorker on his insightful strategy to court and retain latino voters. carlos trujillo is a senior advisor to the trump campaign, one of the principal latino circuits, u.s. ambassador to the organization of american states. ambassador, thank you for being here. that profile came out well in advance of the election and yet you saw it coming. what were the telltale signs relative to the latino vote ? >> i think there is a massive disconnect, as you said in your opening monologue, between mainstream media, liberties, your elites an average person that goes to wildwood or goes to barbecue and watch the kids play soccer. i think what we saw , and everything else you
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said, they live in a bubble and a world in which what they are selling the hispanic community is not buying. hispanics want a border, they want economic opportunity, they do not want to be called latin x. hispanics want their culture celebrated and respected, they don't want to be catered to they want to be american's. one issue is you see hispanics wanting legal immigration and that is not true. there are 1 million green card holders come into this country every single year legally. people coming in legally ultimately become citizens vote in elections. those who come into the country illegally do not people have to go through all this trouble to get to the united states of america the right way and pay taxes and when they go to vote and they see the roosevelt hotel in new york city filled with people who did everything incorrectly and come to this country illegally, it upsets them more than anyone else. they know the difficulty and the process to come into this country the right way. i think the disconnect is people think
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because you are hispanic you therefore want lawlessness and you therefore want an open border and the truth could be nothing further from that. >> why did the dictator charge not land with hispanics? people who like your family fled a real dictator in fidel castro why did this not resonate with them? >> it couldn't be any further from the truth. if you look at the last four years and history with president trump, the amount of kernel cases, some of whom i firm was involved in defending, the amount of civil cases and the amount of destruction they went after, that reminds hispanics of the struggles their own families faced. when you are challenging an institution, you challenge the elites and then they are sequestering your property. that is what my grandparents face and a lot of people face and that's with president trump faced in new york city. the weaponization of government, as much as what people think is a defense is. you never have seen american politics a prosecutor from georgia bringing a state case after meeting with in the white house with a political opponent. why would they even
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need to go to the white house in order to meet with white house general counsel on indicting a former president on a state case i think the weaponization of government and the abuse, and constant telling people what people should do. people are smart, people are intelligent and they are free and they should come to their own determination. >> ambassador, ambassador the joke . we have to talk about the joke at madison square garden. when you heard the joke for the first time and you saw the media reaction for the next few days, did you think that this is going to do damage wax or did you know that it was not going to be an impediment? >> i knew it was not going to be an impediment because you could see all the polling, more portly, i think the highlight in the opening monologue, the joke was made by a comedian. comedians make jokes. if you watch his history it is the slap effect , it is going after people. it wasn't a joke is when joe biden with his own words call trump supporters garbage spirit that is how he
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felt about tom's supporters. he's not even a circuit, a comedian makes a joke, whether you agree or disagree, what you find a funny or you don't, that is not attributed to the president. conversely, joe biden in his own words tells people they are garbage spirit i think the media spun it out thinking this will push people away and they will overlook the failed borders they will overlook inflation they will overlook everything women in men's sports , there is one comedian and madison square garden said one joke for 30 seconds, the last four years don't matter. >> give me the 32nd response, are we in the midst of a realignment? i have sown all the data relative to the latino community or is this a one off? >> it is definitely realignment look at 2016 to present day his increase is 60% with the hispanic community from 2016 to hispanic day, these are new voters. these are people who were 26 and now 34, they were
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15 50 and a 58. if you look at voter regiments registered in the hispanic unity event the majority are republican party. i think the broken promises of immigration reform on president obama , same promises by joe biden come a nothing got done and now you find yourself with a large portion of the united states population 50, 60, 70% of the population, i think going forward they will be much more conservative and much more republican. >> catherine, put up the social media reaction. i don't know if it is something the ambassador will want a piece of because i don't know what's coming. he revealed most average americans don't want to defund the police, don't want boys playing sports with girls, don't use the term latin x, don't support tariffs and it's not that deep. that is for the much anything you said, right, ambassador? >> that is that on. at least democrats stopped with the police campaign and stop with
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the latin x. there is not one hispanic , i speak perfect spanish and we do it at home we never call each other latin x. the word doesn't exist and it never has. >> thank you for being here. >> what do you think. go to my website smerconish.com, you heard my opening commentary so hopefully you get where i'm coming from it has donald trump changed america? or has he revealed it? which critical voting block did democrats forget to include in the party platform and campaign strategy. professor scott galloway back to discuss how masculinity may have handed the trump white house keys and don't forget to sign up for the free daily newsletter it is smerconish.com , steve joe drew the following cartoon.
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did an election that was supposed to revolve around women's issues actually come down to the plight of men? young men? 20 tour does 2024 turn into boys versus girls election with harris performing better among women and trump above with men. how big will the gender gap be? we all know now it was big enough to hand donald trump the presidency. more than half of the mail boat nationwide, 55% went to trump and 42% to harris. men under 30 saw a dramatic shift from supporting democrats in 2020 by a 15% margin to swinging back the gop to 13 points. a cnn exit poll found men under 30 in pennsylvania ever trump by 21
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points . in 2020 bided won that same group by nine points. part of president-elect donald trump's campaign strategy involved using hyper masculine posters like hulk hogan, kid rock, yosi ceo dana white. democrats may have miscalculated the strength and importance of appealing to men on their party's website under the headline, who we serve. democrats show a diverse list of minority groups including lgbtq+ americans with disabilities, civic islanders, native americans, women come in many communities , no mention of men. you might have remembered back in august i noted this made reference to the omission in a conversation i had with professor scott galloway . >> the democratic party right now, michael, is facing the same issues as some of the dei apparatus at universities. that is, when you are purposely especially advocating for 76% of the population , are you advocating for them ? or are you discriminating against the
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24% ? that is how i think a lot of young men feel. right frankly they do not feel seen by the democratic party. >> in the final month of the election, donald trump reached out to young male voters are popular platforms that they subscribe to. his campaign even helped his son baron find his audience. he did interviews with joe rogan, bus with the boys on barstow, he played golf with you to pranksters known as the milk boys, his three-hour interview with joe rogan reached 55 million listeners and installed resulted in rogan's endorsement for trump. after clinching the presidency early wednesday morning, trump and his family and campaign surrogates took the stage to thank their supporters, yosi ceo dana white gave a personal shout out . >> i want to thank some people real quick, i want to thank the enough boys, aiden ross, the of on , last but not least , the mighty and powerful joe rogan.
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>> joining me now is nyu business school professor scott galloway, he is the host of the podcast professor g. right to have you back. we have heard of toxic masculinity, what is aspirational masculinity ? >> it to be with you, michael. aspiration, feeling good about being a man , believing you are entitled to more economic opportunity that is currently presented . you referenced this, i feel like most of the stats i was going to discuss you have stolen my thunder. essentially but this was supposed to be the election with the referendum about autonomy, this was the testosterone election. look at who trump, look at who trump went all in on, crypto, elon musk, rockets, cars . you talk about podcast, there's a difference between being right
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and being effective. we can discuss whether his policies are right or not, but talk about effective, that number you mentioned, a total of 55 million people listened to or watched the rogan podcast, the average age is 34, mail . just to talk about broadcast television, some of the best shows on msnbc seen as a left-leaning network get 1 million viewers and average age is 70 and excuse female. what would be more effective? 1 million 70-year-old women or 45 , 55 million 34-year-old man . in your state, the swinging nest of swing states, young men were nine points towards biden in 2020 and 18 points toward trump in 24 come at that is tectonic shift. it all comes down to the same thing , a 30-year-old man or woman is not doing as well as his or her
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parents at 30 for the first time in american history it if your son is in a relationship, cannot afford to buy a home and is anxious and depressed are the rights of palestinians and territorial sovereignty ukraine or trans rights, does that even register on your screen? this was the testosterone podcast election . >> i want to say that you have spoken of these issues, we have spoken of these issues for the was a 2024 campaign. i can remember having conversations with scott galloway going back two or three or some here on cnn and some on sirius xm wondering does like i was not thinking donald trump, but why doesn't someone champion this cause . he was the first to step forward and do so. >> he flew right into the storm. he embraced the manas fear . he talked about the need
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, crypto , what is more ground zero for young men and economic opportunity, whether you believe it or not, then crypto ? look at some of the stats . 40 years ago the average age of the first-time homebuyer was dirty six. today it is 54. pre-pandemic average home was $290,000, post pandemic it is 420 with aelerated interest rate you're looking at an average mortgage that has gone from 1100 to 2200. 40 years ago people under 30 had a home is 6% had a child. have young people opted out of having a home and a child? maybe they cannot afford it. unfortunately the democrats were not able to circle the fact that the economy is quite good and some of trump's policies, whether it be deficit spending or tariffs will likely result in inflation and greater interest rates on the young, but they
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were not able to communicate that. in the podcast medium cannot be understated. some of the offensive things that we democrats thought that joke is offensive, the podcast softens people, podcast hautes are not looking for a gotcha moment they want to present the individual in the best light and it has the vibe of can't you take a joke? if you look at the nine of the top 10 podcast they lean right and trump went on six of them. there will be a lot of forensics here , not acknowledging the struggles of young men as a broader theme is a big issue when we look at the autopsy that failed the harris campaign. she should have gotten on a plane to austin the demographic group that swung most violently towards trump was young people, the second most violent swing was their parents age 45 to 64. all of the social engineering, all of the righteous social issues did not even take a backseat, they
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were not even in the car because what people see is the kids not doing well, specifically young men and trump went right into this issue . >> i want to display what you are describing. put up the edison research exit survey. this was published by the "washington post" but i don't know if scott can see it it shows among 18-29-year-olds she has the edge but he gained significantly among young men. look at the 45 to 64 category, it was the best category for donald trump, you just made reference to this, who are those people as they relate to young men? >> i hear from them every day, michael. when i started talking about the struggles of young men three or four years ago there was a gag reflex. i understood it, a lot of people who entered that void were thinly veiled misogynist. the conversation shifted. the people driving this conversation and most emails of
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the demographic that i get the emails from are the following, single mothers worried about their sons. are you focused on international affairs, or the rights of special interest groups when your son that's like my daughter is in pennsylvania at 10, my other daughter is at pr in chicago and my son is in the basement vaping and playing video games did you want me to worry about ukraine? you want me to worry about empathy up a zombie apocalypse on campuses which very democratic? no , i want my kid out of my house and i want him to have the same opportunities my generation had. the second biggest swing here the portion of the female vote that swung most aggressively away from harris and towards trump was one demographic, mothers. >> you are entitled to this victory lap because you have been saying it , i have been thrilled to give the platform to say it for years. thank you
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, professor g. >> thank you, michael thank you for being first and unafraid to talk about this issue. america is a platform, wonderful rights, wonderful freedoms directly linked to economic spirit democrats need to re-embrace their strength which is better markets under democrats and giving young people more hope . that is what america is about. democrats have been pretty good at it, they just have not been able to communicate that . thank you for bringing this up early and often. >> scott galloway. let's see what some of you are saying a social media quickly, i know we are way over. >> it was not just the male vote but the noncollege graduate male vote as there was a 40 plus gap against college educated female voters. when you put it together both education and gender , that is when you see the most significant divide. noncollege
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educated men , college educated women being so precise with my wording because i do not want to be perceived as negative but i would never be. i know a lot of streetsmart guys who did not complete a degree, more so than some of the ivy league types. go to my website , smerconish.com. here is the poll question come has donald trump changed america or revealed it ? catherine, do i have time to put up a graph ? this comes from carlos lozada that if you're wondering what that poll question was about, can i read it without one graph? listen to this. throughout trump's life he has embodied every national fascination, money and greed in the 80s, sex in the 90s, reality in the 2000's, social media in 2010's. this guy is a reflection of the country. you may not want to admit that but he is it still to come social media reaction and the
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usual social media platforms. follow me on each including x, now twitter, twitter now x. government has been disconnected from the people for a long time, both parties love them and hate them. trump understands that. he is the most significant political figure in the u.s. since fdr. can i take a quick thing? dr. alan lytton was on my radio show. he is the man of the 13 keys. he called nine of the 10 last elections accurately but he missed this one. he came on radio yesterday it was a great exchange. he was saying that the keys do not foresee someone like donald trump. i was pushing back and saying i think you misapplied t number 13 which asks , if the opposition of the a come incumbent party is charismatic. not necessarily good thing but charismatic. we disagreed. i said you have to give him the charisma key which would have flipped with one
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other outcome. still to come, what trump's win means for u.s. foreign policy. former nato admiral james joins us next. don't forget to vote on the poll question at smerconish.com , has donald trump changed america or has he revealed it? while you are there sign up for the newsletter for which scott santos drew this.
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position for president trump and his first term and then there are the qualifications. the former nato supreme allied commander and he is joining me now, admiral james to have read us. author of a terrific novel , a novel of the united states navy. so many things i want to kick through. let's begin with nato's survivability . you know the concerns from some. how do you see it? >> after the election my phone lit up with calls from europe and the gist was are these the last days of nato? the short answer is i don't think so. i think team trump will come in and put more pressure on the europeans to get defense spending up to 2% minimum, 23 of the 32 nations have hit that mark that is pretty good. it is getting better, there will be a lot of pressure, secondly and
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finally , i think there will be tension inside the alliance over ukraine , how the burden sharing is there . how much the europeans put in, how much do we put in, some skepticism from team trump. bottom line, nato will continue. i think team trump will recognize the value of the alliance. >> the president-elect says he will solve the russia ukraine conflict. how does this end with some type of territorial negotiation? >> if he can and that in 24 hours , i will be the first one voting for his nobel peace prize. what i hope he does, and i think he will is put pressure on both sides to get to the negotiating table and it comes out kind of like the end of the korean war, michael which is to say putin, unfortunately , in a real world will end up with
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about 20% of ukraine, a chunk of that he currently holds but the rest of ukraine, 80%, all of those resources, vast majority of the population will stay democratic free path to nato about 3-5 years but that is not the worst outcome in the world and i think that is how it probably ends. if president trump can put pressure on both sides, more power to him. >> wait a minute, you are saying you see a solution work putin keeps what he has now, but what ukraine gets is nato admission within the next couple of years? >> that is exactly right. i would probably throw in some eu membership. let's face it, putin will hate that part of it, just like the ukrainians will hate the part of putin holding onto 20% of their country , but it is a negotiation i think that is how this will come out. you
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probably create some kind of demilitarized zone between the two parties, just like korea and maybe patrol it with nato's soldiers . not u.s. , europeans. >> give me your middle east headline. there so much there and not the least of which is the ironic plot to take out donald trump. >> i think, without question that will demand a pretty significant response from the united states. first thing we need to do is completely validate our intelligence . number two, talk publicly about why we believe iran was attempting to kill a presidential candidate. number three , respond. i think the response is kinetic. you go after iranian revolutionary guard , probably command at the facilities. you need to send a significant message . let's make sure we have all of the facts in order , after that i think it demands a significant military response. >> 30 second response from you.
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so many credentialed individuals opposed him, now he is the president-elect. what level of concern to you have about donald trump's ability to surround himself with people with the requisite skill set and experience? >> it is the ultimate question for the next 30-60 days . i am encouraged by susie wiles, a fellow floridian being named as the chief of staff. she is a steady hand. i'm looking to see who fills the other cabinet posts. a lot of the names that i hear in my wheelhouse, national security, our folks the who i think are steady. ambassador robert o'brien former national security advisor. the secretary of state mike pompeo. senator marco rubio , another fellow floridian. if those folks are willing to come into government, i think he can put a pretty good team together.
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>> may i recommend for the holidays, as a breather, the -- "the restless wave" , your new novel. thank you. >> thanks, michael. >> you have time to vote, go to smerconish.com and answer the poll question . has donald trump changed america or revealed it? when you are there subscribed to the newsletter. you will get editorial cartoons like this from steve green.
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there is where we stand as of now. interesting. i am going to leave this up for the rest of the day, vote if you have not. has donald trump changed america or revealed it ? 39,928 , now we are well beyond 40,000, 84% say he has revealed it. i am probably going to get hit with emails saying you are normalizing, you are saying washing , read the carlos lozano essay that inspired this poll question. he is saying wakeup the guy is a mere. if you look at the trends of the 80s, 90s, 2000, 2010s , what he does dominates the country at that time. >> you nailed it 1000% in your monologue. i am a democrat.
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robert, you must be from like the northeast and i know i will hear from all sorts of people who say what about this short town and that short town? these jersey shore towns spill from one another, they are right on top of one another and when you get to know them, they are all unique. the drill is, wherever you grow up going with your family is where you usually end up taking your own kids. i am a ocean city person . trump going to wildwood in a state that he was never going to carry made me assess, why wildwood. to factor in harris-walz, obviously . i kind of put it together. he was able to tap into those who felt disrespected. sorry, i'm long-winded. one more. i guess the 2020s era will be characterized as the maga decade. too early to tell. may
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