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>> hello, in foreign affairs, saying this is now europe's war. >> my question do though is in the short run in the next year can europe really do what the united states was doing? >> does it have the supply of arms and ammunitions? does it have the intel capacity to actually step in and replace the united states? >> europe has everything but time and time becomes a crucial factor now. the sense of urgency is there. the understanding that america is gone. is there all the decisions necessary to actually ramp up production and

procurement of weapons were taken? all they have to do is just to start implementing them. europe has a mixed record on that. let's be frank. but under these circumstances, we can only hope and ukraine will be pushing as hard as it can to make europe act fast, because it's really like every day counts. it's not an exaggeration. >> but when you when you think about this issue, is it what is the most urgent thing for europe to do right now? is it to develop an intelligence capability that it doesn't quite have yet? is it to ramp up military production? you know, what is the thing that ukraine needs most urgently from europe? >> unfortunately, two things that ukraine needs more than anything else is something that europe will not be able to provide within a short term

perspective. and these are patriot interceptors to shoot down russian ballistic missiles and intelligence. with all my respect to french, british and german intelligence, i highly appreciate their efforts. but you know, they all let's be let's be honest, they all relied on american intelligence for decades, so they cannot. this is not the capability that you can build in a blink of an eye. it just takes time on everything else, especially on hardware. europe is well positioned to increase the production of tanks, cannons, artillery rounds, and this kind of and other types of military equipment. but again, everything takes time and we are not in a position to drown in any internal discussions anymore. and this is why it is actually frustrating hearing the reports from the inside of the european commission that despite the fact

that all the decisions were adopted just a couple of days ago, france and germany are still fighting each other to identify the best way to implement these decisions. this is not like rearming europe. defending europe should be taken outside of the political discourse. this is not an issue where you can spend years, months, weeks and months debating on what to do. just do it. >> and you know, donald trump says that his goal here is to force a peace and that he, you know, both sides need to act. and he said it's easier actually to deal with russia than ukraine. do you think there's any prospect that all this produces a ceasefire and some kind of peace? >> listen, we hear the word peace very often, but we don't see it around. when i look around, i see daily missile

attacks. when i look around, i see daily on the ground offensive. when i look around, i see statements coming from washington announcing another concession concession to russia on ukraine. i mean, this is not peace. this is the exposure of ukraine to being destroyed by russia under the slogan of bringing back peace. so we have to be very clear with with the terms that that we are using. we all want peace. europe wants peace, ukraine wants peace more than anyone else. but real peace, not a peace that will first destroy ukraine and then will destroy europe, while the united states will be making great deals with russia let me ask you finally, dmytro, you've you've been around for a long time. >> we don't have a long time. but very briefly, what is your reaction? just as a ukrainian, as a as a, you know, as a

european to what, what what has happened in america? what this transformation of policy. how do you understand? you know, do you understand it? what do you what do you think it's what do you think is going on? >> well, america came to europe 108 years ago amidst the first world war. right? and for all. for a century. for slightly over a century. europe forgot how to live without america. now, now it's time to remember those days. those days. now it's time to learn how to live. not only on the assumption that america will not be in europe, but also that america may openly be against europe. but the biggest lesson that we we all learn, i believe, is that there is no one you can genuinely rely on in this world in a long term perspective, because the moment

will come when your interests and the interests of that other that you had relied on will come into conflict, which will push countries to self-sufficiency, to the limit, which is very hard to comprehend at this point. and this will be this will be a global trend. and of course, the only this will all result in the in the growth of china's influence all over the world. it's regrettable to see how america dismantles america led world, but that's the choice that the people of america made by by casting their votes. and we have to learn how to live with it. >> dmytro, as always, a pleasure to have you on. we will be back. >> united states of scandal with jake tapper returns tonight at nine on cnn. >> with usps ground advantage.

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>> march. >> madness magic caught on coy wire at the dark. >> i'm calling the march. magic high for long for my. >> as i mentioned earlier, the likely next german leader, friedrich merz said recently that his number one priority would be to quickly strengthen europe so that it could achieve independence from the united states. it's an extraordinary statement from a chancellor in waiting, especially one who is an old school conservative and a traditional transatlanticist. to understand what merz is thinking, i want to bring in katrin bennhold. she is the former berlin bureau chief for the new york times, now a senior writer for that paper. katrin, that is a tement. do you think this is widely felt in germany, that that the united states no longer is the guarantor of german security, that it has been for eight

decades? >> yes. i think the fallout in particular between president trump and president zelenskyy in the white house last week was very clarifying. and i think a lot of people have woken up to this idea that europe has to go it alone. now, on security and in a funny way, because of course, europe has been at war for the last three years and arguably since 2014, when russia invaded ukraine and crimea. and there should have been perhaps that wake up call before and a kind of a threat perception that would have surged to a point of, you know, really investing massively in defense. but that moment really only arrived now. >> and mayor has talked about something else, you know, which is revolutionary, which is for the germans. he is willing to break the ceilings on german debt. these are self-imposed ceilings and spend really lots of money on defense. is there again a consensus on this because he's going to be

running a coalition government, probably with the social democrats. is there a consensus that germany can blow through these debt limits in order to spend big on defense? >> i mean, the early polling we're seeing suggests that, you know, 3 in 4 germans are behind this. and partly it's that it's not only an agreement for the special fund, you know, that will invest, you know, ÷400 billion in defense, which is really a lot, if you recall, after the invasion, there was this moment when olaf scholz stood before the german people and argued in favor of a 100 billion increase in defense. an extraordinary sort of budget for defense at the time. and that already felt like a momentous shift. now we're talking about 400 billion. but on top of that, we're talking about 500 billion in infrastructure investment. and i think it's those two things side by side which have buy in with the germans. and it probably took a conservative chancellor to get this done because the social democrats, to their credit, and the greens and others have argued for this, you

know, for a long time. and mertz was opposed to it until very recently. so this is a very big step for germany and for europe, because germany is obviously the biggest economy in europe. >> now, when you look at right wing populists in france and italy, giorgia meloni the prime minister, marine le pen, the main opposition leader in france, they have both basically been, very broadly speaking, pro-ukraine. le pen has gone back and forth, but she criticized trump for his, you know, seeming abandonment of ukraine. meloni has been a staunch supporter of zelenskyy and ukraine. what is the afd's position here? it is the second largest party in germany. it is germany's far right party. is there a danger that, were they to do better better, this whole transformation of german >> yeah, i think the real risk and you're talking you're basically mentioning this tension right now. we're in this moment. it's a historic moment.

we're basically facing this twin challenge of securing our democracies to external threats. and that's the sort of defense budget that needs, you know, ramping up rapidly across europe in order to actually, you know, be able to defend our border, right, to an aggressor that is proven to be an aggressor in the recent years. but beyond that, we have to secure our democracies on the inside. so we kind of need that democratic resilience. and the afd and other far right populist forces that have in this conflict sided with putin. in fact. are are a big problem for germany. and if i may just add one last thing, and it's been to me, a big concern because friedrich merz is now negotiating yet another so-called grand coalition, although the parties involved aren't so grand anymore, the social democrats and the christian democrats are, of course, the traditional two opponents in germany, and they used to be the sort of, you know, the two alternatives for voters in the postwar decades. there was only one time in the sort of upheaval of the 1968

moment when a kind of government of national unity created a coalition between these two parties, democrats and republicans, going into government together. right. it's extraordinary. but under angela merkel, we had three out of four terms in this constellation, and it really has eroded the sense among voters in germany of having a real alternative. and it's one of the reasons, and you see it in the name of this far right party alternative for germany, that the far right has grown strong. so i fear and i think friedrich merz has a lot of work to do on that front, that this constellation, it risks, you know, reinforcing the afd even more because it is the day facto opposition party. >> katrin ben folds, thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you very much. >> next on gps. trump loves tariffs. >> tariffs are about making america rich again and making america great again. >> but what does history tell us

about how trump's tariffs will work? i will explain next. >> when it comes to rooting out corruption, do the fbi's ends justify the means? >> it was humiliating. it's an embarrassment for the country. >> the united states of scandal with jake tapper tonight at 9:00 on cnn. >> so i can take the steak home. yep. as many butterfly shrimp as i want. you got it, kate. >> you can take home everything. >> those tongs. ice cream machine. dessert bar tray. that guy's hat. >> we're going to let that guy keep his hat. but that's more broccoli. >> yeah. thanks. i'm good. >> want a next level clean swish with the whoa of listerine? it kills 99.9% of bad breath germs for five times more cleaning power than brushing and flossing alone. get a next level clean with listerine. feel the whoa.! >> life. diabetes. there's no slowing down. each day is a unique blend of people to see

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>> in 1930, the republican controlled house of representatives, in an effort to alleviate the effects of the anyone, anyone. the great depression passed the anyone, anyone, a tariff bill, the hawley-smoot tariff act, which anyone raised or lowered, raised tariffs in an effort to collect more revenue for the federal government. >> the actual history is even more interesting than ben stein's character, and those students certainly made it out to be. here to tell us all about the history of tariffs is douglas irwin. he is a professor of economics at dartmouth. he worked on trade policy in ronald reagan's council of economic advisers. professor irwin, welcome. the first question i guess i would put to you is give us a sense of what do trump's proposed tariffs look like in comparison in historical terms?

now, when i say proposed tariffs, i know they switch on and off all the time and who knows where they'll be by tomorrow morning. but i mean, broadly speaking, the numbers he's used 25% against canada and mexico, 10 to 20% against china. assume that we're in that ballpark. what does that look like historically? >> well, if you look at the history of u.s. tariffs, particularly over the last century, it's a true outlier. it would bring them up to levels we haven't seen since 1940s, not quite as high as smoot-hawley. and that clip that you just showed, which ultimately reached 60%. but it would push things up to about 20%. and that's because we're hitting two of our largest trading partners, canada and mexico, ostensibly with 25% tariffs. >> and it's fair to say, as you say, that the chart, when you look at it, of tariffs over the last century, particularly since the end of the world war two, is really one of very significant downward movement. you know,

we've moved the whole world has moved into a free trade world. and fair to say that it has coincided with massive prosperity around the world. >> absolutely. not only has u.s. income risen during this period quite dramatically, but particularly around the world, as countries have opened up to trade, and some came later, some came sooner. they've experienced tremendous gains in income, massive reduction in poverty, particularly in the 1980s and 90s when there was this reagan move towards freer trade. >> it also strikes me, professor, that the the you know, trump sometimes talks about how we could use tariffs to replace the income tax. and you know that if you look at the math that is that is, you know, kind of impossible if you were to raise tariffs 10% on all goods coming into america. i think it would make up 5% or something like that of the federal government's revenues. once you have a big welfare state that pays out social security, medicare, medicaid you can't possibly fund it through

tariffs, am i right? you have to use income taxes. >> that's absolutely right. so there was a period when we could fund the federal government with tariffs alone. but that was before the civil war when government spending was only 2 or 3% of gdp. we didn't have a welfare state and transfer payments. we basically just had, you know, funding of national defense and the national debt from the revolutionary war in earlier periods. so in that case, the tariff was raised about 90% of the federal government's revenue and imports were the tax base of the economy. but after the civil war, as the u.s. economy changed, as we had much greater government spending, and particularly after the introduction of the income tax, the share of revenue derived from the tariff has fallen to very low levels. it's only about 2% now. so the idea that we could balance the budget or even come close to that by taxing imports more when imports actually are relatively small share of u.s. gdp, a small share of the economy is very difficult to achieve. so we unfortunately

need income taxes and other taxes to balance our books if that's the way we want to move. >> and when when we put these tariffs on other countries, it's become clear, will reciprocate. and then presumably, trump has said we would reciprocate to that. so there's a there's a danger here. you end up in a for tat world. and in any case, once you put tariffs on, they're hard to take off because now you've created a protected domestic industry that's that's used to having no foreign competition or very little foreign competition. right. so i mean, where this is likely to be a one way ratchet that just moves tariffs up all over the world, what would be the consequence of that. >> well, i mean it would be lower standards of living i think around the world because you'd be interfering with international trade, which is this conduit for the exchange of ideas, technology, cheaper goods. and you're absolutely right. when tariffs go up, they

can go up very quickly. but bringing them down is a very slow process. so for example, you know the clip that you showed about ferris bueller talking about the smoot-hawley tariffs, which took tariffs to very high levels in the 1930s. it really took us until the 1990s to bring tariffs down to much lower levels. it was a very long, arduous process over many decades, and a lot of international trade negotiations. it wasn't something that happened very quickly. and so once we put these tariffs in place, even if future administrations want to expand trade and cooperate more with our trading partners, it's going to be a long road to get back to where we were. >> douglas, owen, thank you so much. >> you're most welcome. thank you. >> next on gps, i'll dig into where doge should be focusing if it actually wants to find money that can help cut the deficit. >> are you hungry? i'm hungry. oh, perfect. >> i'm so excited. this is

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supposedly receiving social security. they may be listed in the database, but they are not receiving benefits, which cut off automatically at age 115. trump did cite a real government report from 2024, estimating fraud across the whole government at 233 to $521 billion a year, but consider the federal workforce, whose total compensation in non-defense roles is about $250 billion. doge has also singled out usaid grants and die contracts, which account for less than 1% of the nearly $7 trillion federal budget. out of control government spending today isn't driven by overstaffing or foreign aid. it is from writing checks to take care of individual americans. $3.6 trillion 52% of the budget

goes to health care programs like medicare and medicaid. income programs like social security and disability, and other forms of support like food stamps. there is fraud in those programs, but it doesn't come from dead people take disability payments. the social security administration has dedicated investigators and prosecutors to crack down on fraudsters like this man who faked mental illness and lived in a mansion in palm beach. agents also regularly review whether recipients are still eligible, but fraud does get missed. they just don't have enough resources to catch it all. but for every dollar spent on various such efforts, taxpayers get back 2 to $8. outright fraud isn't the only problem. social security does make overpayments $11 billion in 2022, much of it due to human error, the inspector general said. better technology and data systems would help prevent this. in fact, agencies

say the two things they most need to tackle fraud are more resources and better data analytics. the first means more staffing and funding, and certainly not what trump has done. firing inspectors general en masse. their job is to look out for waste and fraud. the data side seems right in musk's wheelhouse, but his tech wizards haven't actually focused much on improving the government's technology yet. by the way, it's not just social security where taxpayer dollars disappear. hhs estimates medicare and medicaid made over $100 billion in improper payments in 2023. one example a wall street journal investigation found insurers had charged medicare an extra $50 billion over three years by adding bogus or inflated diagnoses for patients. of course, most government payments are correct and legal, so a serious conversation about deficit reduction would put the

programs themselves on the table. even unpopular ideas like raising the eligibility age for social security and medicare. finally, remember, deficits are not just about spending, but about how much revenue the government takes in as well. even before we talk about tax increases in 2022, the irs missed out on $606 billion that should have been paid in taxes. democrats have provided more money for enforcement because the return on that investment is so good. but republicans have fought this, and doge hasn't spared the irs from large layoffs. meanwhile, republicans want to blow a hole in the deficit by extending donald trump's tax cuts, which will cost to the tune of several trillion dollars over the next ten years. elon musk said last week that without doge, america will go bankrupt. so if the crisis is so dire, let us not

renew the trump tax cuts, which would return us to obama era tax rates, during which time the american stock market doubled and the u.s. economy grew faster than any major western country. but when you mention that suddenly the deficit hawks turn into chickens. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. >> twitter. that's a great name. >> we invented a whole new thing. >> no one could possibly have understood where it was going. >> twitter. >> breaking the bird premieres tonight. >> at ten. >> on cnn. >> trains trains that use the power of del a.i. and intel. clearing the way. >> so you arrive exactly where you belong. >> with usps ground advantage.

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