and of course, it foretold that in 2018 that democrats would pick up the house of representatives. so i decided to go back in my delorean and see, hey, wait a minute, did that 2018 2017 trend hold through history? take a look at special elections in midterm results. go all the way back to the 2015 2016 cycle. and what do we see if a party is outperforming in special elections? the prior presidential baseline? you know how many times they took back the house of representatives in the next midterm election? get this. they took back the u.s. house five out of five times. so this is a big reason why we're watching the house races tonight to see if there's that overperformance. because what we know in the past is what one party overperforms they tend to do very well come the midterm elections. >> caitlin and i can think of two people who will be watching that very closely, hakeem jeffries and mike johnson. harry enten thank you, as always for the data. and that will do it for the lead today. thanks so much for joining us. don't go anywhere, though. i'm going to

be joining jake and erin for cnn's special election night coverage, which starts right now. >> tonight the trump. >> agenda is on. >> the ballot. >> wisconsin supreme court. it's not. >> an. >> arm of the trump administration. >> president trump. >> is in. >> this to help me out. >> he doesn't care about their issues. he's running to serve trump. >> with republicans. >> razor thin margin. >> in the u.s. house and control over the supreme court in a key swing state, all at stake. first up in florida, one special house election gets unexpectedly competitive. >> we want to put up big numbers for president. >> trump as. >> democrats spend. >> big in ruby. >> red territory. >> why are republicans panicking in deep red districts. >> putting republicans and trump on. >> edge with a slim margin? we don't want to take any chances. >> and in the contest for wisconsin's highest. >> court. >> elon musk takes center stage. >> may. not seem that it's. >> going to affect the entire destiny of humanity, but i think it will. >> is the maga movement working for swing state voters? >> this is a turnout race. >> or.

>> are democrats ready to win? >> elon musk is the guy who is trying to. >> buy an election. >> cnn election. >> night starts right now. >> and right now, two seats in the. >> narrowly divided house of representatives. >> are on the line tonight. it is an important new test of. >> president donald trump's political strength. >> along with a. high stakes race, to say the least. >> in battleground wisconsin, to determine. >> whether liberals or conservatives will control the state supreme court, it has become the center of everything tonight. welcome to all. as we kick off cnn's election night coverage, i'm erin burnett. >> and i'm jake tapper on this special edition of the lead. we're about an hour away from the first results on the first major election night since president trump returned to the white house. in the hours ahead, we could learn a lot about voter reaction to the president's

aggressive second term agenda, and whether that's giving democrats any opportunities to bounce back the highest profile race is that fight for control of the wisconsin supreme court, not only a measure of trump's popularity in a battleground state that he narrowly won last year, it's also a potential verdict from voters on elon musk and the political power he has been wielding. the world's wealthiest man has spent tens of millions of dollars to try to flip the wisconsin high court's majority from liberal to conservative, putting him at the center of the race and helping to make it the most expensive judicial contest in american history. musk, arguing that the very future of civilization is riding on the outcome of this race, a win for liberal judge susan crawford would give democrats new hope on capitalizing on voter anger at musk and trump, a victory for conservative judge brad schimel could signal that wisconsin voters support trump. musk and republicans in general also at

stake tonight, the balance of power in the u.s. house of representatives at a moment when republicans are feeling anxious, shall we say, about their very narrow majority, two republican seats are at stake in tonight's florida special election. seats left open after trump tapped former congressman mike waltz to serve as his national security advisor, and after matt gaetz left congress to briefly be trump's nominee for attorney general. now both parties are closely watching the contest for waltz's seat on northeastern florida. democrat josh weil running a more competitive race than expected in florida's deep red sixth congressional district, which is from just south of saint augustine down to south daytona and west almost to ocala. his gop opponent, a state legislator named randy fine, has drawn sharp criticism from republicans about his candidacy and his fundraising. governor ron desantis is one of those critics. after fine switched his support from desantis to trump

during the 2024 republican primary. our correspondents are standing by in florida and in wisconsin and, of course, here in washington, d.c., as we cover all of these races from every angle and await the first results after the top of the hour. let's go first to cnn's kaitlan collins is at the white house. caitlin, is trump world feeling nervous at all about election night? >> they wouldn't say nervous, jake, but they're obviously watching tonight very closely. they're not viewing this as an outright referendum on what the president has been doing, but they will be looking closely for any hints as to what it says about what these last ten weeks have revealed, about how voters feel about president trump's second term in office, but also, namely, what one of his chief allies, elon musk, has been doing since he joined president trump and has been working as a special government employee at doge. but also in the last few weeks, you've seen him out on the campaign trail in wisconsin, pouring a ton of money and effort into that race. he was just campaigning there on sunday night with a cheesehead on, as he was telling those voters to elect the conservative in that

case, saying that could have a major outcome for president trump and for republicans here in washington. so could have a direct result as an effect of what that looks like onto president trump's agenda and what the next four years for him look like here in washington. so they'll be watching that very closely. but jake, the other thing they're keeping an eye on with these two races in florida is the ones for mike waltz seat specifically. they're not as worried about the one to replace matt gaetz. but for mike waltz, who is now trump's national security advisor and obviously has been embroiled in that signal gate scandal over the last few weeks, that is something that i'm told has been a source of irritation at times for president trump, that that candidate, that republican in that race is not doing as well as expected in a race that trump won more in a district that he won by more than 30 points. so that is something that he personally will be keeping an eye on over the next few hours. jake. >> all right. kaitlan collins, thanks so much. another thing we're keeping an eye on right now, democratic senator cory booker from the garden state in new jersey is delivering a marathon speech on the senate

floor. he is about an hour and 13 minutes away from achieving the record for the longest speech in the history of the united states senate. it is a dramatic new example of democrats trying to show strength against president trump, given their limited powers in the minority of the house and senate, and manu raju is on the hill. manu, tell us more about senator booker's speech. the record is set rather ignominiously by senator strom thurmond for trying to block civil rights legislation, a filibuster in the 50s, if cory booker if senator booker achieves this, he's not actually trying to block legislation and just the magic number for people at home. it would be 7:19 p.m. east coast time. that's when he would break the record. what is he trying to accomplish here? >> yeah, this is not a filibuster. this is, in fact, a speech that he's given to protest the trump agenda. and you're right. it's 7:19 p.m. eastern. he would become the give the longest floor speech in the history of the united states

senate right now, clocking in at more than 23 hours, it's the second longest floor speech in the history of the united states senate. and this comes at a time where democrats are facing enormous pressure from their base, from democratic voters who want them to show some fight, who want them to show in their views of some voters, to show some spine. they believe the democratic minority in the house and senate simply are not fighting back hard enough. and booker is trying to channel that. and all through the course of the night, we have seen democratic senators come to the senate floor, ask questions to senator booker. he is allowed to do that under the rules of the senate, engage in a back and forth a q&a with some senators that gave him some time to take a break of sorts, but he has not been allowed jake to sit down. he has not been allowed to leave that spot that you see him standing there, right? and he's not even allowed to leave the senate floor to use the restroom. so he's been on the floor for 23 hours. his colleagues have told me afterwards that they're engaging with him on the floor. they believe that he will, in fact, break strom thurmond's record, who has held that since 1957,

jake. and that is approaching in just over an hour. >> yeah, he certainly doesn't have any reverence for strom thurmond's record, given what it was set for. we're going to keep a close eye on this all night and hopefully get to senator booker when and if he ever leaves the floor of the house of representatives. let's go over to john king at the magic wall. john, turning back to the election. so what are you watching for tonight? >> margins, especially jake, first, in those two republican districts in florida and then in battleground wisconsin in a state supreme court race. let's take a close look at what i mean by margins. first, let's just pop up the two races in florida. number one, these should be blowouts. these should be republican wins and they should be big. but are voters trying to send a message to president trump that they don't like his first weeks in office? maybe they send a message that they love them. we'll see that in the margins. this was the district of matt gaetz. he retired from congress, resigned. he was supposed to be trump's nominee for attorney general. let's forget the history of that. but he is not. we can talk about it later. here are the two candidates in this race. so but this was a plus. republican 37

points. remember that 37 points in the last election. so what is the margin tonight. the republican is expected to win. he's jimmy petronas. but is it closer than that. and if it's closer, what message might voters be sending? the white house will be watching this, but so will be house republicans who have a tiny majority. more on that in a second. then florida's sixth congressional district. as caitlin said, this was the district by the now national security adviser. this is a tighter district, but it's still a republican plus 30 district. think about that. a plus 37 and a plus 30. so we shouldn't be talking about these races tonight right. republicans are worried about this one. not so much about losing it, but they're worried about the margin. if a democrat wins here, that would be a political earthquake. but if it's close, it's a 30 point race just a few months ago. if it's close, house republicans in battleground districts or even in districts, trump won by 10 or 15 points are going to get jitters. that's what tonight is about. what is the message to republicans? you pop this out here. so these are the two races here. let me walk over here and just show you why we care about these. we care about it in part because what message is there?

is there a message to president trump and the white house about the early days in office? but speaker mike johnson and the democrats care about it because of this. this is the most narrow any house majority in quite some time. republicans don't have any votes to waste. we saw another example of that yesterday. just today. republicans don't have any leeway, so they need those two florida seats. there are two more vacancies after that, but they need two republicans in those seats. democrats are hoping it would be a high hill, but they're hoping. and then the other race, of course, jake, the wisconsin state supreme court, a state president trump, won by just shy of 30,000 votes five months ago. what's the margin tonight? can the democrats keep their majority on the court? huge issues for the voters in wisconsin, but also potentially another national message. >> wisconsin, probably. john, correct me if i'm wrong. probably the most 5050 state that we have in this union, do you think? >> yes, it is one of the most competitive. let me just come back over here for one second. if i have a minute, i don't want to turn my back. so i'm going to. >> flip this. we got nothing but time, okay? >> we got nothing but time. so

let's bring up wisconsin 2025. let's come over to the supreme court race. i want to explain this off the top. you see purple here. you're used to seeing red and blue under under state law. and on paper these are nonpartisan races. so we don't say a democrat and a republican. any voter in wisconsin watching this is saying, really, you haven't lived our life the last few months. this is a very hyper partisan race. but susan crawford is endorsed by the democrats. she's a dane county judge. brad schimel was the republican attorney general. he's a waukesha county judge. he's endorsed by elon musk, the republican party. so they're technically not running as democrats and republicans. but again, if you i've been in wisconsin in recent weeks, it is nuts out there. so what is the margin now? you mentioned the battleground state. let's just go back to the presidential race in 2024. this was a blowout by wisconsin standards in presidential races. trump winning by 1.50 to 49 29,000 votes. but remember, this was just a few months ago. trump proved he could turn out voters just a few months ago. can republicans do it tonight, or can democrats send a message to trump and to elon musk? >> all right, fascinating stuff. let's talk about it with my august panel of geniuses. dana bash. what are you looking for

specifically? what of all the things going on? i'm just going to let you have let you have it. corey booker, the two house races, the wisconsin supreme court, what are you most jazzed about? >> it's i think it's there are lots of things to talk about on the micro level. >> i'm making you pick one though. >> no, but i'm going to talk i'm going to say there's there's both micro. we know all the reasons why it's important for that 50 over 50 state of wisconsin to go either dem or republican. we know why in these two florida districts, it's important for democrats to try to keep republicans from having those two seats with which in a narrow margin is is everything. but it's much more about the overall vibe for democrats. i've talked to democratic party leaders who say over and over again, it's for them. they need a shot in the arm. they need a w on the board. i mean, pick your your metaphor. >> they need a win. you don't. they need coming within five points of randy fine in florida six isn't going to be enough. no. >> i mean the way that the the

way that the democrats are setting expectations in florida, six mike waltz own old district because it was 30 plus points for mike waltz the last time around, and for trump to they're saying if we get it in single digits, so. >> in single digits. >> less than 10% of a spread but i guess the bigger point is about the larger enthusiasm and what this says about the enthusiasm among democrats, because that's really what party leaders are trying to do, to show to enthusiasm, slash anger and frustration, show democratic voters that they can do something. and on the flip side, the republicans i talked to, it's kind of striking how it's the exact inverse. one republican i talked to said, our goal tonight is to keep democrats depressed and to keep them from thinking that they actually can. >> i mean, i think anger is the name of the game tonight for for democrats, because it's not as if they're happy with their own party. it's not as if they're thrilled with what's going on.

i mean, i think cory booker is trying to respond to that anger by saying, hey, i'm here. i'm doing something. i'm putting my body on the line for this. but i do think that there is a lot of evidence already that that energy, that anger is already manifesting. wisconsin is going to be the place where in that 50 over 50 state, it's going to be a tough call how this will shape up, because on the one hand, you've got elon musk just pouring tons and tons of money into that. >> more than $20 million. >> yeah, i mean, and way more than the vaunted george soros. he was like a, like. >> a, like 2 million. >> and so it's not even that much money on the democratic side. but clearly turnout is up. people are engaged and and the backlash factor against elon musk, who is perhaps the most unpopular aspect of this trump administration is going to be huge. yeah. down in florida the the energy you see it in the money as well. but on the democratic side where these candidates on the democratic side are, have raised so much money, it shows you that there's something happening

here. and and it's not centered on washington. it's centered on the people who actually are pretty disgusted with all of washington. >> yeah. well, can i i think the most interesting thing that i've been hearing, as we've been preparing to, to cover this is the degree to which that there are house republicans who very privately, but also very sort of vocally and nervously are saying that they actually wouldn't mind if this result woke up president trump and woke up the white house. as to elon musk and the challenges that he is creating for them with voters, i had one member in a tough district basically say, you know, if this night went really bad for us, maybe they'd throw musk out before you know, we have to get to reconciliation before we have to get to the midterm elections. it sounded like a little bit of wishful thinking to me, but i think it speaks to the fear and the nervousness. >> i think there are two big things at stake tonight. let's start in wisconsin. number one, to abbie's point, democrats have a lot of big structural problems. how are they going to change their message? who's their spokesman or spokeswoman message? who's going to be their candidate? okay. how are they going to talk about the economy?

how are they talk about immigration. but but have they found a temporary band aid in elon musk? i was just out there a couple of weeks ago, and they were using him to motivate voters to fuel anger, to raise money, to channel people. so if a party, if you have to fix your entire car, right, you know, can you get a rental car? is elon musk their rent a car to carry them into at least the early part of the midterm campaign that's on the ballot in wisconsin tonight in these florida races. look, the republicans should win them both, and they should win them both easily. if they are tight. yes, speaker johnson will get two republicans. that's what he needs. he needs two republican votes yesterday to pass the agenda. but what happens to don bacon in nebraska? what happens to the newly elected pennsylvania republican winning matt cartwright school district up in northampton county? what happens to people who ran in districts that harris won, the republicans won, or that trump won by three, five, eight, ten points? they will get nervous if those florida races are close, and that could affect how they vote on things going forward. >> coming up, more on the elon musk of it all the musk ness, how the world's wealthiest man put himself and his millions at the center of this supreme court

race in wisconsin. and we're counting down to the very first results of the night. polling places close in, the most closely watched special house races in florida less than an hour from now. stay with us. much more of cnn's election coverage ahead. >> feeling anxious? >> i don't know what's going on. >> don't worry. >> put your feet up. >> don't panic. we can help you cope. >> it's called. >> disassociation. >> it's all. >> on fire. >> did you not find that comforting? >> have i got news for you? saturday at nine on cnn. >> if you have. generalized myasthenia. >> gravis. >> picture what life could look. >> like with. >> vivid trullo. >> a subcutaneous injection. >> that takes. >> about 30. >> to 90s. >> for one thing, could. >> it mean more time for you? vegard? hi. trullo can improve daily abilities and reduce. >> muscle weakness. >> with a treatment plan that's personalized to you. do not use high. trullo if you have a serious allergy to any of its ingredients, it can cause

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phoning it in, trying to show that he is fully invested in this race. now. >> polls will close here. >> in wisconsin in just under. >> three hours. >> as voters will soon decide. >> whether the. >> state supreme court maintains its liberal majority or flips to conservative control. it's a race that will have huge impact here in the state of wisconsin on issues like abortion rights and congressional maps, but it also is expected to send a national message as the first major battleground test of the second trump white house. >> so who wants to help me win an election? wisconsin voters. >> are back in the spotlight. >> ultimately, it's the. >> wisconsin voters that matter. >> conservative judge. >> brad schimel and liberal. >> judge susan crawford., facing. off as control of wisconsin supreme court is up for grabs. >> this is about. >> our supreme court. it is about our rights, and it's about our state. >> the outcome could impact future rulings on issues like abortion rights, workers rights and the state's congressional

maps. >> we're in this. we're going to win this. >> and i'm. >> looking forward to restoring. >> objectivity to wisconsin. >> supreme court like i promised. >> it's the most expensive. >> judicial contest in u.s. history, with spending topping $90 million. a big reason why is elon musk, the tech billionaire and groups aligned with him, surging more than $20 million to the race. while on the democratic side, mega. >> donors like. >> george soros and illinois governor j.b. pritzker pouring millions into the state. >> if the people that voted for president trump simply vote on tuesday, we will win. >> in green bay this week. musk handed out $1 million checks as he rallied voters for schimel, aiming to drive out the same supporters that sent president donald trump back to the white house. >> it's a big race. >> i love. >> wisconsin, we won wisconsin. >> you were sick. >> musk warns. >> a liberal majority on the court could revisit

congressional maps in the battleground state, where republicans hold six out of eight u.s. house seats, even as statewide races have produced razor thin margins for both parties. >> whichever party controls the house you know it to a significant degree controls the country, which then steers the course of western civilization. >> crawford and her democratic allies have seized on musk's involvement. >> he is buying brad schimel. >> elon. >> betting it will turn out voters frustrated with doj's efforts and his big spending in wisconsin. >> i never could have. dreamed as a little girl. growing up in chippewa. >> falls. >> that i'd. >> be. >> fighting the richest. >> man in. >> the world for justice in wisconsin. >> schimel brushing off liberals concerns. >> two years ago, they got all the money, and this time we're more competitive. so it's just their brains are exploding over this. >> voters here offering mixed reactions to musk's decision to inject himself in the race.

>> it's a miracle. >> that he's. >> able to do that, but i don't think he's buying elections. i mean, you know, everybody. >> is out there and voting their mind. >> democracy to me. >> is on. >> the line. >> and plus, i don't want. >> this election to be bought out by musk. i'm really concerned. >> a republican official tells me they believe their early voting numbers has put schimel within striking distance of crawford's campaign, while her campaign believes they have strong early voting turnout. both campaigns are hoping that those early vote numbers will lead their candidates to success in tonight's election. >> all right. of course, we're. >> going to see here in these next couple of hours. arlette. >> thank you very much. incredible. the money there. >> and still ahead, democratic senator cory booker. so what's happening there. is he making an impact with his nearly day long. >> anti-trump speech. >> nearly day long. this is stupendous. at the very least, we're watching as booker is expected to break the record for the longest senate speech ever

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washington this week. so this week for talks on the war in ukraine. let's get to tales from our chief national security correspondent, alex marquardt. he is the one breaking this news. and alex, this appears to be very significant and official coming to washington who it is matters and what he's here to do. >> matters. >> and aaron, this will be the first. >> senior russian official. >> to come to washington. >> since this war began. >> in ukraine. >> more than. >> three years ago. the kremlin aide's name is kirill dmitriev. he's the head of russia's sovereign wealth fund. >> he is. due in. >> washington this week to meet with the trump administration, specifically. >> with trump. >> envoy steve witkoff, who has become essentially the point. person for russia. he has now been to moscow twice to meet. >> with putin. >> and dmitriev is coming here at a very important time at a very complicated time in the relationship between the u.s. and russia, which dmitri is very much trying to get back on track. the trump administration trying to get this cease fire in place in ukraine. and we just

heard a couple days ago from president trump saying that essentially he is increasingly angry and frustrated with president putin. he said he was off with putin after their call last week, in which putin went after president zelenskyy of ukraine. of course, president trump's frustration with president zelenskyy is also growing. so dmitriev coming here to try to get this relationship back on track for this cease fire. but it remains to be seen whether they actually do want this cease fire or if putin is just continuing to play for time. erin. >> and i wonder on that, alex. i mean, you know, when you look at putin announcing this week, right, the conscription. >> that they're. >> going through right now, they're going to have 50% more people in the russian military after that than they had before the war even began. certainly not in terms of actions. anything that signals a pulling back or getting. >> out of being a. >> war state. >> and even though the russian economy is suffering, that is why putin would be playing for time, because they do essentially have the upper hand. they are on the march. they are pushing ukrainian forces back in eastern ukraine. they are

pushing ukrainian forces out of that russian province of kursk. and so they have less interest right now in trying to get to a peace deal. but before we can even start talking about a peace negotiation, a cease fire has to be put in place. according to the trump administration, the trump administration, just a few weeks ago in saudi arabia announcing they wanted an immediate cease fire. president putin essentially rejecting that, going for a narrow energy infrastructure, cease fire. and then when the white house announced that that would be extended to the to the black sea, there would be a moratorium there, then the russians added more conditions on top of that, saying that the u.s. had to remove sanctions. so putin essentially continues to give the u.s. the runaround. and that's why we are seeing this increased frustration from the trump administration. erin. >> yeah, yeah, the cease fire is not coming to fruition. all right, alex, thank you very much. alex, with that breaking news on that senior russian official, sovereign wealth fund leader kirill dmitriev. you know, the context of this is how much, how much sort of authority and power is trump going to feel he has in these negotiations and

everything else? and a lot of that comes down to what we're going to see tonight. i mean, val talking about florida and these margins, as dana was just mentioning, you're a former congresswoman from florida. so, you know, these districts, you know how red they are, what ruby red really means. so what are you looking for tonight in these margins? >> well, let me. >> just say this. >> we are very clear. >> eyed about both of these districts being ruby red. >> we know. >> that district one in the panhandle, that president trump won it by 37 points. i will never say never. gay valimont has worked her tail off getting out, talking to voters about things that are important to them over the last. well, let me say it this way since january 20th, it's been a whirlwind with some of the things that the president is doing. but we're going to be watching those margins tonight, ruby red. but in those ruby red districts, there are some stars. josh weil is one of those in district six. >> single father. >> single father. but look, he

is a middle school math teacher. let's just think about that middle school math teacher who is fighting for education. while the president of the united states is trying to destroy the department of education, fighting for against sea level rise in florida, supporting the environment in the state of florida, workplace or workforce stability, minimum wage, things that every floridian cares about protecting social security and medicare. we've certainly heard a lot of talk about that. on the other hand, we have a candidate who even governor desantis says we have a candidate problem with him. randy fine says he loved to be a foot soldier for donald trump's agenda. nothing about the 700,000 people who live there. >> i think the governor of florida has. >> a bit of some issues. >> with governor desantis. >> of course. >> because he. >> endorsed desantis initially, and then he flipped his

endorsement in support, ultimately donald trump to donald trump. i think the governor is still upset about it. i don't know why, because he never had an opportunity to become the republican nominee in the first place. with that said, the narrative coming from democrats so far has been even if they were to lose, this would somehow suggest that donald trump and the republican party, generally speaking, is somehow weak, that the american people do not. >> well, if you don't have. >> that. >> 30 point margin you had a. >> few months ago, and i'm not convinced of that. i mean, in the sixth congressional district, 9 million raised by the democrat, compared to one outraged. 10 to 1 in florida. one, what are we looking at? 6.5 million raised from the dem, compared to 2.1 million raised by the republican. if we still win both of those races, aaron, by 15 points or more, i would argue that it completely destroys the narrative from democrats that there is a resurgence in democratic strength moving forward. >> there is a reason why we are sitting here tonight talking about two ruby red districts in the state of florida, and i do believe the world is watching, of course, because the control

of the house does matter to the world. it certainly matters to the nation. i do believe and look, i'm not saying i said earlier that we are clear eyed about this, you know, winning. >> and. >> losing, right? winning and losing. but if democrats close this margin in a significant way, it does send a clear message. i believe that floridians are not in line with trump's agenda. >> i a good money after bad kate. >> no, no. and i think. >> that there are actually. >> there are things that democrats can. >> look at. >> relative to these this outcome tonight. >> and i don't. >> think that democrats. >> have to win these very republican seats. >> in order to see whether they're. >> whether they've been making progress. >> there's. >> you know, we can look at what the gender gap looks like in these in these results. are democrats making inroads with men? >> is have has. >> there been progress since november? that's one thing to look at. i think, you know, we can look at whether. democratic totals outperform the midterms in 2022. and there was a lot of energy because of the abortion ban. you know, so in in a

district that, you know, democrats really have a, you know, a significant deficit they're unlikely to overcome even with an excellent candidate, if they are outperforming on some of these metrics. that is a really good sign for democrats moving forward. >> erin. >> i think one thing that we should look at here is there has been a historical realignment within the parties, and part of that has been voter propensity and likelihood for turnout. democrats have become the party. >> of. >> the higher propensity, more likely turnout voter. so democrats should be leading at this point in early vote. they're not. they're down. and even in these florida races, what you're going to see here is yet democrats, they should likely do better anyways. so you can't really compare the special to a regular election anyways. because this is a lower turnout race in the first place. that's going to benefit democrats. >> let's look at the trends nationwide though, as it pertains to special elections and democrats winning. >> all right. well we'll see here. we've got we've got a lot more to go. and we're going to see these numbers coming in. we're just moments away here. some of these first polls closing straight ahead. more on the political stakes in the

wisconsin supreme court race. we're going to talk to one of the state's top democrats. and the first results of this first big election night since november are coming up. we promise at the top of the hour right now, a quick break. >> welcome back. >> have i got news for you? news saturday on cnn. >> dear future. >> student, congratulations. >> you have. >> been. >> exceptional. >> when is a house more than a home? when it opens the next door for your kids. >> so we're doing it. >> doing it? okay. >> get started. >> at rocket. com. >> turbotax free. >> edition. >> 37% of filers qualify. >> simple form 1040 returns only. see if you qualify at turbotax free. >> i can file for.

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for promotional products that work as hard as you do for imprint for certain. >> march madness gives you all. >> the. >> feels. >> got the feeling. >> crowd going crazy. can you believe this? >> ice in the veins. emotions are on full display. >> this is. >> what march. >> feels like. >> i've got the feeling baby. >> your fear justified. them. inhibiting the greatness of the. >> constitution. >> you are watching. new jersey democratic senator cory booker on the floor of the united states senate, making a historic statement against president trump and the trump administration. in 36 minutes, he will break the record for the longest ever senate floor speech in the history of the united states senate. we're watching that clock. we will go live to capitol hill to mark that moment. we're also watching, of course, the election in wisconsin. voters are deciding whether that state supreme court will lean left or right at the end of the night. the outcome

could provide democrats and republicans with a road map of how to run campaigns. in this, trump's second term. let's go to wisconsin now, where cnn's omar jimenez has been talking to voters in one of the battleground states, battleground counties. omar, what are voters telling you? >> look, i don't know if i have the speaking stamina of senator cory booker, but what they have told me is that they feel a lot of the energy with this state supreme court race is a continuation of what we saw in november. and at this particular precinct, we've seen people come in steady pace over the course of this. they sort of check where their wards are, and then they make their way through similar process to what we see across the country. but i also want to bring you to a voter, because i've been speaking to carol here who's from elm grove. and what was interesting, carol is you told me you voted for trump in november, but then you also now voted for crawford in this election. yes. what motivated you for this vote? >> well, i just feel like she's the better person. and she's

more consistent. i don't like that. you know, there's going to be. no, no abortions. that really troubles me. and i just feel like susan crawford is the person to to be. and we need that to have more balance. because if trump gets his pick, then, you know, there won't be that balance. >> carol. really appreciate it. she also is very keenly aware of all the outside influence and attention that has come into this race. as we were talking about as well. but in wisconsin, you are used to close elections here, as i understand. >> yes. >> all right, all right. thank you. carol, thanks for talking to us. jake, back to you. >> all right. >> erin burnett all right, jake and i'm joined now by the chair of the wisconsin democratic party, ben wikler. and, ben, i appreciate your time. so here we

are. you're getting close to the very end. what can you tell us about turnout right now? >> it's explosive. >> what we've. >> seen is a. >> 54% increase. >> in the early and. by mail votes compared. >> to 2023, which itself. >> set a. >> 60 year record for. supreme court court turnout when there wasn't a presidential primary on the ballot. and what we're seeing across wisconsin right now, you know, based on kind of precinct level anecdotes, is that turnout on election day might be up, too. so this looks like a very high engagement election. of course, the question is who's doing the voting? we're seeing a ton of turnout in the blue areas. and then in the kind of red areas, it looks like some of the voters are folks who like the the person you just interviewed. they've had enough of what trump and elon musk are trying to do. and as you noted, there's deep concerns about brad schimel and his support for the total abortion ban that we briefly had in wisconsin after roe versus wade was overturned. so this is a race that, you

know, from our perspective, it is it is both the folks who turned out because they wanted to stop trump, but it's also people who want a check on trump and musk's lawless power at this moment. and that could shape up for a result for susan crawford tonight that will bring hope to people across the country wondering whether democrats and people who support freedom and democracy can fight back and win. >> and you mentioned that voter that omar was speaking to, and i thought her perspective was fascinating. we did see muscle on the ground in wisconsin, right? it was a lot of money, as you know, but it was also been it was his he was there. right. he went he put the cheesehead on. he did that this weekend in green bay. and the money that he donated was enormous. he and groups affiliated with him, i believe, came to more than $20 million. so do you think that had an impact on some, possibly in favor of schimel? >> i'm sure that musk's tens of millions of dollars that he's invested have added votes for schimel. the question is, has he inspired even more people to come out on the other side?

we've seen an unprecedented flow of more than 200,000 grassroots donors make donations to susan crawford campaigns and the wisconsin democratic party. we've never seen that in a spring election before. that's allowed susan crawford message to hit the airwaves, really toe to toe with the ads from the far right and at the same time, on the on the grassroots level, we've seen double the level of voter engagement, knocking on doors, reaching out to friends and family that we saw in 2023. i think elon musk, his unpopularity and his the way he's made himself the face of the schimel campaign, taken over schimel message, that is a double edged sword. it is increased republican turnout, but it might generate even more backlash from people who think that musk and his attacks on social security are out of control, and there needs to be a check. >> we'll see what happens here. we are getting close to those those polls closing, and we will have the result. and thank you very much. wisconsin democratic party chair. we appreciate it. and still ahead in our special coverage, we are getting so close to those first results on this special election night,

expected after 7 p.m. eastern. so what message are voters going to send about president trump's agenda so far? the answer ahead. >> are you hungry? >> i'm hungry. >> perfect. >> i'm so excited. this is cuisine at a different level. oh yeah. food makes me so happy. >> eva longoria searching for spain premieres. april 27th on cnn. >> stuck paying off your phone but want. >> a new one? >> break up with. >> your carrier. >> we've got you. >> switch to. >> verizon and we'll give you up. >> to $800 to pay. >> off your phone, and you'll get a new iphone. >> that's iphone 16. pro with apple intelligence. >> on us. >> on any plan. >> now with jen emoji. only on verizon. >> taxes was feeling so stuck.

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your kids already inherited your ears, allergies and questionable singing voice. don't make them inherit your final expense. tab two. >> i'm hanako montgomery in tokyo and. >> this is cnn. >> welcome back. as we get closer to the very first results on this very first major election night since last november. just minutes from now, voting will end in the special house election in florida's sixth congressional district. that's in northwestern florida. this will be a chance for voters to weigh in on president trump's second term, as they choose a replacement for former congressman turned trump national security advisor mike wallace. democrat josh weil, a

teacher and political newcomer, is going up against the now former republican state senator, randy fine. this contest, more competitive than expected. it's in the daytona beach area, a district that president trump won by about 30 points, offering a glimmer of hope to the struggling democratic party. both parties tracking closely the razor thin divide in the house of representatives. the gop holds a 218 to 213 edge over democrats. there are four vacancies heading into this evening. two of them will be filled this evening. where will the balance of power stand when the night is over? we do expect the very first votes to come in shortly after the top of the hour. the polls close at 7 p.m. eastern. it is 652 right now. there is another countdown on our radar, this one over on capitol hill. senator cory booker, democrat of new jersey, is getting closer and closer to a historic moment. he that is not him in the image that we're showing you there. right there.

but senator booker is on track to set a new record for the longest floor speech ever in the history of the united states senate. that would be just minutes from now. at 719. he will achieve that record. let's go back to the florida race now in florida. six. let's check in with cnn's dianne gallagher. gallagher in ormond beach, florida, in the sixth congressional district. and, dianne, you've been talking to florida voters all day. i know republicans about 2 or 3 weeks ago were panicking. what is the mood on the ground as we wait for polls to close? do republicans think that, having sounded the alarm 2 or 3 weeks ago, republican voters are turning out to vote today? >> jake, i will say that the panic from republicans does seem to have subsided. some looking at these election day numbers coming through today. democrats, though, still do remain hopeful. i actually have one with me right now. this is rita. nadine. she's a voter who just finished right now. you're a registered

no party affiliation, but you said you voted for josh weil. >> yes. >> i did. why? >> i just feel like with him, our. >> voices will be heard. >> and i feel like it's nice to have someone like him who's strong in our congress party. >> you're in a very republican district, though. do you actually feel like he could win? >> i do, i feel like he has a strong chance. he's a strong candidate, so i feel like he has a strong chance. >> yes. and you feel like it would be better to have him in washington instead of randy fine the republican? >> yes, i do. >> all right. thank you so much. i appreciate your time. jake, i'm going to send it back to you. >> all right. dianne gallagher in ormond beach, florida, thank you so much. so we're getting closer to results in about five minutes or so. we'll get the very first ones from florida. the other florida district, the florida first congressional district, is in the panhandle. they're in a different time zone. so that that won't be coming in at the top of the hour. what are partizans? what are democratic and republican party operatives looking for right now? dana? >> well. >> in the short term, a win. but

democrats do not even begin to suggest that in the florida races that they're going to win. they are bullish about the wisconsin supreme court race. but just sticking with florida to them. we sort of alluded to this earlier. a win is doing better than expected. and that's really the key for for their for their rank and file. the one thing i will say that i've started to hear from republicans is that they, particularly those close to trump, they're starting to argue that, well, this is very typical. if democrats do better than expected, this is sort of historically what we see when an incumbent wins and the party out of office tends to do well in the first elections afterwards. and so the expectations are definitely starting to be set, even though we don't have. >> can i just say to jake, i mean, one thing that's bubbling up, among people i'm talking to is this idea that if democrats do do better than expected

tonight, it's not necessarily because anybody here in this town did anything about it, and that it is something that is coming from, you know, this sort of place of anger. there are some here who will say, well, if we do really well, we don't want to make the mistake of still continuing to fail to learn the lessons of why we got here, because a lot of those voters are still really angry at their leaders in washington. >> and it might take the people who are coming in, perhaps from the outside, to change what the democratic party does. from this moment forward. i don't think that anybody in these districts in wisconsin or in florida are looking to the party writ large for the direction. i think it might be coming from the people who are showing up at the town halls, who are active, who are angry. i also think that on the that what you're hearing from republicans, dana obviously these are districts that are so heavily republican that that they should win. they absolutely should win. but in districts where it's a trump plus 30, it shouldn't be close. and if we

are in a close territory tonight, that's going to be a problem. >> florida governor ron desantis, who used to have the seat of florida's sixth congressional district, has said he thinks randy fine will win. but he attributes any of the closeness to randy fine personal weakness. let's go back to cnn's john king over at the magic wall for a closer look at this critically important race in the sixth district of florida. john, what should we look for when polls close just minutes from now? >> the early margins will tell us something, jake. and then if we're talking about this more than a couple hours from now, then republicans are having a bad night, even if it's just close, even if they win. but it's close. so a little geography. this is the district right here, north of orlando, south of jacksonville, northeastern florida, along the coast here. let's go back now and just take a look at what we have for the candidates. randy fine is the republican. he should win overwhelmingly if people vote like they did a few months ago and two years ago and two years before that. but we'll see. josh weil is the democrat. so why are we looking at this race? let's just go back to 2024 and look at this district again. now he is the national security advisor to president trump in hot water for other

issues. but look at the margin. this was just a few months ago. and 33 point difference between michael waltz, the republican, and james stockton, the democrat. this is a huge plus republican district. and look at donald trump won it as well. if you come back to look at it here, not quite the margin there if you come in. let me just get get us back to the district here. there we go. boom. again 30 points. right. so this is a republican plus 30 plus 3132 district. it should not be close. if it is people will say what is the message coming to the white house? it's a special election. we don't want to overstate that. but we also don't want to understate that. right. this is the first time voters get to say, how are we doing? what do we think of you, mr. trump? what do we think of what's happening in washington right now? so we'll watch this. so number one, it's what happens in this seat. this is the seat. if democrats are going to have a huge, huge, huge emphasis on huge surprise, they think it would be here. they don't think that's going to happen. but they're going to watch and see. but there's one here and there's one here on the ballot tonight. what are the voters say. that's part of it. and then jake, it comes down to this. this is what's at stake in terms of the balance of power in washington. you have a very

narrow house majority, 218 to 213 right now because of four vacancies, two of those vacancies will be filled tonight, florida one and florida six. so if you're speaker mike johnson, what you're hoping for is an easy win here. and no conversation after that. and then you're hoping for an easy win here with randy fine. and you get that. and does it make a huge difference? no. but 220 to 213 beats 218 to 213. so republicans, jake, are looking to pad their margin. democrats are hoping hoping these races are at least close enough that there's a message to the white house. yes, but even more so to house republicans. that may be you should not march in lockstep with donald trump. >> voting is about to end in the very first big race of the night. that's the special house election in florida's sixth congressional district in northeastern florida. on the coast, there, can democrats make any inroads in trump county? we are going to bring you a key race alert in about five