>> reporter: jeanne moos, cnn, new york. >> okay, okay. >> don't forget "the situation room" tomorrow, 6:00 p.m. eastern. we'll speak with the only u.s. lawmaker to monitor the elections in afghanistan. i'm wolf blitzer in "the situation room." up next, "lou dobbs tonight." >> thanks, wolf. millions of residents on the east coast over the united states tonight are bracing for hurricane bill. it is a monster storm over 100 miles wide with hurricane-force winds of 110 miles an hour. plus, another blow to president obama's health care plans. new polls show confidence in the president's leadership is plunging to fresh lows. also, the recovery -- the economy is recovering from recession. where are the jobs? and tonight we continue our series of special reports, "dobbs and jobs" now. but first, president obama's agenda from health care to energy to the economy is under

fire tonight with new polls showing increasing opposition to his plans. after a tough week, struggling to sell his agenda through town hall conferences -- conference calls, media interviews, the president leaves washington for a ten-day vacation, and leaves behind an increasingly bitter fight over health care proposals. and more. ed henry has our report from washington, as there is a new set back for the administration tonight. >> reporter: that's right, kitty. cnn learned next week the obama administration will be revealing more bad news about the long-term budget outlook that they have a new projection for the budget deficit for the next ten years, and it will reach $9 trillion. that's $2 trillion worse than they had rejected at the beginning of the year. they're saying it's due to the poor economic conditions in the country, but republican officials are already saying this shows that the president is spending too much money early in his administration and that the country cannot afford a vast health reform package. white house officials are trying to make the opposite argument.

they say that unless you rein in health care costs long-term, you're never going to pay of off the long-term u.s. national debt. nevertheless, the president has got a problem with these new polls. "washington post," when people were asked in a abc news poll about confidence in the president to make the right decision, only 49%, less than the majority said they have a great deal or good amount of confidence in the president to make the right decision. 50% some or no confidence. also asked, would you support the government in creating a health insurance plan. back in june, 62% supported, 33% opposed. now it's down 10 points. only 52% supporting, 46% opposing. a 13% increase in the percentage who are opposing the president's efforts. what's also interesting is earlier today, on cnn radio, i interviewed a key moderate senator, ben nelson, who said bottom line that back in his home state of nebraska, people have been, in his words,

traumatized by this whole debate. >> what i found in nebraska is that there is an awful lot of concern, fear, anxiety, frustration, the -- i think the americans -- america has been traumatized by the debate. because of the labelling of certain situations, such as the ho hosspice panel being called the death panel. there is a lot of misinformation and misunderstanding. >> he did have good news for the president and saying that he saw it a good sign in recent days the president has shown more flexibility and potentially doing away with the public option in this whole plan. as a moderate conservative democratic senator, senator nelson is saying that is a good sign, and he thinks that in the end, while he could not support a bill with a straight public option in it, he could support a bill that scaled down, that just does insurance reform, and

includes the public option as sort of a secondary option if the insurance companies do not make the changes that washington wants them to make. so what's interesting is opening a door there for the president, that if he scales back his reform efforts, he might be able to get a scaled back bill through the senate. so far, the white house is not showing any signals they're willing to do that. but that may well be where this debate heads in the fall, and the president gets back from his vacation, more and more moderate democrats pushing him towards a more scaled-back bill. >> a very tough process. thanks very much, ed henry. another possible set back for the president's health care plan now is health house majority leader stenny hoyer tonight seemed to wobble on his commitment for a so-called public option. saying it was just one aspect of an overall package. hour's comments come after nancy pelosi said she would not support a bill if it did not include a public option. this to be the turning point in this country. the week began with

back-pedalling from are the white house following these statements from the administration on a public health insurance option. >> whether we have it or we don't have it, is not the entirety of health care reform. >> what we don't know is exactly what the senate finance committee is likely to come up with. they have been more focused on a co-ops, not-for-profit co-ops as a competitor, as opposed to a straight government-run program. and i think what's important is choice and competition. and i'm convinced at the end of the day the plan will have both of those. but that is not the essential element. >> these comments, meant to apiece conservatives, were immediately met with backlash from liberal democrats. >> it's a deal-breaker, because the whole idea, the kind behind health care reform, is to bring down the cost. we cannot bring down the cost, unless there is a public option that will create competition.

>> now, on tuesday, the health and human services secretary tried to clear the air. >> bottom line. of absolutely nothing has changed. we continue to support the public option that will help lower costs, give american consumers more choice, and keep private insurers honest. if people have other ideas about how to accomplish these goals, we'll look at those, too. but the public option is a very good way to do this. >> but that didn't convince fellow democrats to fall in line. now, here's a key negotiator in the debate. senate democrat kent conrad, who is pushing for a co-ops approach. >> there have never been the votes in the united states for public option. that's just a fact. >> republicans seized on the confide and the democratic party on the backlash from the american people. >> our president decided to try to cram a massive bureaucratic

health bill through the throats of the american people, and it doesn't look to me like you all think that's a very good idea. >> members of congress also fired back, as tension at the town hall meetings continued to mound. >> trying to have a conversation with you would be like trying to argue with a dining room table. i have no interest in doing it. >> by thursday, the mood among the democratic leadership in congress was turning desperate. >> let me just be very clear. this is an opportunity, not of a lifetime, of a century. if we don't pass this bill, with all the comprehensive aspects of it now, i don't know when we'll have a chance to do it. >> and we end the week with concern that the administration might go it alone without support from republicans, democrats or voters. so goes another week in washington. turning overseas, the two leading contenders for the

presidency of afghanistan each declared victory today. incumbent president hamad karzai and abdullah abdullah each made the claim without waiting for the vote total. now, initial vote results could come in in a few days, but it could take weeks for a final tally. 26 people were killed by taliban terrorists who were attempting to disrupt the elections. but millions of afghans went to the polls anyway, and president obama applauded the afghans who turned out to vote. >> we knew that the taliban would try to derail this election. yet even in the face of this brutality, millions of afghans exercised the right to choose their leaders and determine their own destiny. and as i watched the election, i was struck by their courage in the face of intimidation, and their dith in the face of disorder. >> international observers said there were reports of voting irregularitieses, but overall the election process was credible. in iran tonight, united

nations nuclear inspectors were allowed back inside two nuclear facilities. now, the inspectors visited a uranium enrichment plant and a research reactor. iran says the plant produces nuclear materials for medical use. but a recent report says its fuel could be reprocessed to produce plutonium. the united states has accused iran of concealing a nuclear weapons program. back in this country, the east coast is bracing for hurricane bill. the storm has weakened to a category 2 hurricane, but forecasters warn that it could regain strength as it barrels towards bermuda. dangerous waves, rip currents already hitting the united states, many states tonight are closing their beaches. chad myers has the very latest. chad? >> kid kitty, that's probably a good idea. wkmg is our affiliate out of orlando, they have a shot from daytonaa. and i had this shot earlier, and we did not have this amount of white water out there, nor did

we have waves breaking way out in the ocean, as well. so we know that these waves are getting larger. we know what large waves do. they make rip currents. of well, how do they do that? they come in -- all the water wants could to come in with these waves one dwight, and then there is this sand bar, and the water spills and dumps itself right here on shore. and we like to play in this water right here. the problem is, when you lose a piece of the sand bar, let's say right there, all the water still comes in, but it only goes out in one place. and that's the dangerous place. let me show you, we've made a graphic of all this, and i'll show you how it happens. there is rip current, right through the middle. going to hit play. get this out of the way, and you will see the waves crashing on shore. you will see the sand bar, right there. the waves still come over. but now as the waves get bigger and bigger, we're expecting waves almost 15 feet tall to be coming on shore, especially in the carolina coastal region, and then the sand bar breaks, all of that water goes straight out. i don't believe it's going to be as big of a deal in florida as

it might be a little bit farther up the coast, because of the proximity. see, look at the distance between here and here. there's still a couple thousand miles between florida, but then all of a sudden, it's closer to the carolina coast, closer to the delmarva, and look how close to gets to maine and really very close to nova scotia. so here's what you were talking about. you were talking about this category 2, that's where we are right now. of at 105 miles per hour. of but the water is very warm here. and this warm water is going to let it grow to a 115 storm, 115 miles per hour, like you can tell the difference between 105 and 115, but the ocean can. and we have seen waves out here almost 45 feet tall. you ever watch the movie or the show "deadliest catch," they have waves 30 feet tall and they're crashing over every boat. if they come on shore and break a little bit, there is always some type of a reva long here, so the the waves break a little bit off shore. but with all of the water piling up on these beaches, we could

see tides 6 feet over what you would expect in the bays here, because that water, kitty, just wants to pile in. it's just moving and moving. and piling in here, and you know, i just -- you're just going to have to be careful. if you're taking your kids to the beach, make sure you have a hotel with a pool. tell them go in that water, and stay out of the ocean, because it's going to be dangerous this weekend. >> chad, that's a great explanation. now i really understand everything that's going on. thanks very much. chad myers. >> well, it has so much force. you get hit by that wave and it can really just suck you right out. >> that's great. thanks very much, chad myers. still ahead, the truth behind the off quoted number of 47 million uninsured in this country. is that number right or wrong? well, that is our faceoff. and also, we'll have special reports on health care in other countries. tonight we're doing ireland and the perils of a government-run system when the money runs out. and new signs our economy is recovering. no signs the job market is. so what are our elected officials doing all about it? jobs and dobbs now is next.

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some good economic news today. sales of existing homes posted their largest monthly gain in at least ten years. as cheaper prices and low rates continue to entice buyers, sales in july rose more than 7%. that's up for the fourth straight month. and that encouraging report helps us rally a -- spark a rally in stocks, the major index is all closed at their best levels of the year. the dow gaining 155 points, nasdaq up 31, s&p rising about

2%. and tonight we continue our series of special reports, "jobs now." the labor department reports there are 14.5 million unemployed americans. those numbers don't represent the total number of those who are out of work, and unable to find jobs. that number, as lisa reports -- lisa sylvester reports, is much higher. >> reporter: cathy hafer was an i.t. professional, who after being laid off took a temporary job for a while delivering food for a restaurant. this was the vice president of a major north carolina bank until march. he now works doing contract sales work through a temp agency. damian has 25 years of corporate experience, most of it in the textile industry. he now works six hours a week at a local community college. all three are underemployed, unable to find full-time work in their chosen profession. >> when i lost my job, it was a very hard pill to swallow.

then having to come home and tell my family what happened, was just crushing. crushing. >> reporter: he has formed a group called "professionals in transition" in north carolina. many of the members fall into the category of underemployed. it's a classification that is much broader than the traditional unemployment number. those completely out of work, and actively looking for a new job. to get a true picture of those who want a full-time job in america, add to the 14.5 million unemployed, 8.8 million americans who have part-time jobs, but can't find full-time work. then there are 6.2 million more americans who the labor department says have been out of work for so long, they have given up, even though they would still like a full-time job. >> you add them with the involuntary part-time workers and the unemployed and you get a grand total of about 30 million people who want either jobs or more jobs, more work than they

currently have. >> reporter: so why would someone take a part-time job when they want full-time work? because they have bills to pay, and a family to feed. as these stopgap jobs become more common, wages are pushed lower, and the part-time jobs have fewer benefits, as maryland university professor peter mauricy. >> good jobs with benefits, impossible to get. the economy is melting down. the administration is focused on dividing the pie when the pie is disappearing. >> reporter: the unemployment rate is officially 9.4%. but when you add in the number of underemployed, and others wanting full-time work, the rate jumps up to 16%. kitty? >> thanks very much, lisa sylvester. as lisa just mentioned, the national unemployment rate in this country, 9.4%. but in some areas of the country, though, the rate is much higher. las vegas hit a new record high. the unemployment rate in las

vegas hit 13.1% in july. that's according to the state of nevada. and the unemployment rate in vegas last july was just under 7%. 14 states and the district of columbia had jobless rates over 10% in july. michigan had the highest. 15% unemployment. coming up, we continue our series of reports on health care around the world, and tonight, we're doing ireland. also, the white house says there are 47 million uninsured. but are there really that many? well, that's the topic of tonight's faceoff debate. and new warnings of an explosion in the number of swine flu cases. tonight we have a special report on the rush to produce a vaccine. (announcer) illness doesn't care where you live... ...or if you're already sick...

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the world health organization is warning of a, quote, explosion in swine flu cases. a regional director for the w.h.o. warns that when flu season officially begins, many countries may see the number of swine flu cases double every few days. nearly 1,800 people worldwide have died from swine flu, more than 500 of those deaths in the united states. health officials are trying to speed up production of a swine flu vaccine before the

fall flu season hits. but as maria now reports, there are new concerns that the vaccine may have dangerous side effects. >> the swine flu vaccine is just weeks into clinical trials, and in many parts of the country, schools are already back. >> we're preparing for the worst, and hoping for the best. we are still optimistic that we'll have a vaccine available about the 15th of october. but the regimen will take about five weeks. first shot, three weeks delay, second shot, and then about two weeks for full immunities. . >> the world is now at the spot of the 2009 influenza pandemic. >> reporter: in june, the world health organization declared swine flu a pandemic. countries around the world have been rushing to produce vaccines. nch>> it's a slow process, and vaccine capacity is very limited. so it's hard to make a lot of it

quickly. unfortunately, over the years, fewer and fewer companies have been making influenza vaccine. >> reporter: then there's the question of safety. medical authorities in england urged heightened awareness among neurologists of a rare brain disorder once mass vaccinations are under way. a vaccine administered in the u.s. in the '70s was blamed for cases of paralysis. medical experts say the only way to know if there is a rare adverse effect is to vac sin ate millions of people. since the trials began two weeks ago, no short term effects have been identified. adding the cdc commonly tors people who have been vaccinated and can halt a vaccine if something goes wrong. and you may see fewer schools closing this fall. the cdc recently relaxed guidelines, saying local officials are reducing the number of swine flu-infected people with minimizing social disruption. in new york city, for example, where numerous schools were closed this spring, they won't

readily close, or disclose the number of swine flu cases. the city says it's unlikely to recommend widespread or prolonged school closures, in part because such closures won't stop the spread, and the economic and social disruption would be substantial. kitty. >> thank you very much, maria. in chil chile, this was thet reported case of the swine flu in birds. it is made up of a mixture of humans, bigs and bird genes and it is feared if it combines with avian flu, it could be much more dangerous. a controversial new law going into effect in mexico. small amounts of marijuana, cocaine, heroin and other drugs are legal. the law outlaws personal use amounts. anyone caught with drugs under that amount will not be prosecuted, but rather encouraged to seek treatment. among the limits now allowed, 5 grams of marijuana, or a half of

a graham of cocaine. coming up, important lessons from government-run health care overseas, and tonight we can learn from ireland. also ahead, who is telling the truth about the number of uninsured in this country? that's our face-off tonight. and terror politics. the bombshell revelations in in a new book from our first homeland security secretary, tom ridge. and this from today's white house briefing. >> what is wee-weeed up mean? >> i don't know if i should do that from the podium. >> we'll discuss that and much more later in the broadcast. announcer: what are you waiting for? all around the world, men with erectile dysfunction have asked their doctors about cialis.

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we continue our coverage of health care systems around the world, and what we can learn from them. and tonight we have a report on health care in ireland. now, ireland ranked 15th in a european survey of quality of health care. the life expectancy in ireland is almost 80 years, almost two years longer than in this country. one of the problems facing ireland is a shrinking tax revenue, and that's making it difficult for ireland to pay for its health care reform plan. >> five years ago, flush with prosperity, ireland started to

reform its health care system. it began centralizing health care, and offering higher salaries to doctors to switch to the public system of health care and give up their private patients. of richard saltsman of memory university has studied many european health care systems. >> essentially what they did was increase the pay for hospital physicians, increase it quite a good deal, but in return, those hospital physicians had to restrict or eliminate seeing private patients in the hospitals and having them in private beds. >> every citizen is covered, but 50% of the population buys supplemental private insurance. to avoid the long wait times on elective surgery. >> in the public sector, one can wait up to three years for a hip replacement or a cornual lens transplant. >> patients in need of emergency room often flood emergency rooms says bruce pollack.

>> in hospitals, waiting times in emergency rooms for urgent or emergent care in ireland is longer, perhaps, than i've seen it in any other developed nation. >> there is one doctor for every 333 people, compared to one for every 416 in the united states. ireland spends 7.5% of its gdp on health care. compared to 16% in the united states. and $3,424 per person compared to $7,290 in the united states. life expectancy, 79.7 years. compared to 78 in the united states. costs are starting to strain the system. as tax revenues decline in the current economic downturn. one thing ireland has done well is foster the development of the pharmaceutical industry. >> the government was providing significant tax benefits to entice the pharmaceutical industry. to invest in the manufacture of

chemicals in ireland. it actually helped fuel the economic engine of the sell particular tiger, and so there is a very congenial relationship between the ministry and the industry. >> now, there has been some relief and demand for services in the last few years. many of the legal immigrants that flooded ireland in the boom times have now returned to their home countries after the recession wiped out their jobs. so that has taken some of the pressure off of the health care system. we will continue our coverage with health care systems around the world next week, and we'll report on health care in italy, norway, portugal, new zealand and turkey. meanwhile, in this country, president obama continues to defend his health care plan, despite rising opposition. among obama's key selling points, those 47 million americans that he says have no insurance. but is that number accurate? well, that is the subject of our faceoff tonight.

y gore volski says the 47 million number may actually be too low. and sally pipeses, the ceo of pacific research institute meanwhile says citing the 47 million number is just a way for people to force their message. so thank you both for joining us. of and let's get into it. igor, i would like to start with you. let's talk about the insurance numbers first. break down this 47 million for us, and tell us what you believe is accurate. much. >> well, i think 47 million, of course, the official census number is about 45.7 million, and that number is really too low because of the economic recession. we know that about 14,000 americans lose health insurance every single day in if this economic environment, so that means that about between the august recess and labor day when congress comes back, about half a million americans would have lost their health care coverage. and 47 million, of course, is the number that includes young americans, old americans, and includes some undocumented

americans. it's in some ways a fluid number. but i think it's only one indicator of our very broken health care system. >> let's take -- let's break out the numbers a little bit, and we do have a graphic to do that. because it's very interesting where this number is. we have -- we have -- it's a census -- u.s. census bureau that said, what, 46 million apparently or approximately 46 million have no health insurance. 15% of the population. but then when you really look at it, it's 10 to 25 million illegal immigrants are included. we have 14 million who are eligible for insurance, but have not signed up. we have 10 million who choose not to buy insurance. and then 13 million, some say, are the true number of the uninsured. >> you know, kit -- owe. >> what do you think about -- let me turn to sally, igor, for a second and get her thoughts on that. sally? >> well, just because you don't have health insurance in this country doesn't mean that you don't get health care.

but when you break down, as you have with the census bureau, there really -- you know, 8 to 10 million americans who are chronically ill without health insurance for two years or more. but i think it's interesting of that number, about 14 million are people who are eligible for medicaid and state children's health insurance. and haven't signed up. and i think it's because a lot of people don't want to sign up with medicaid, because they fear that they will have to, you know -- they'll have a hard time getting a doctor, because docs don't like the low reimbursement rates from government programs. but there are about 17 million americans who are earning over $50,000 a year, and, you know, three quarters of them -- two-thirds of them are young people who are between 18 and 34, and because of the mandates on insurance companies, these invincible, the people who don't have a lot of assets, who probably won't get sick, they don't want to buy insurance. they think it's a bad deal. so that's a major fact that these people -- if we could reduce state mandates, we would have a lot more of these young people going into the insurance market, and into the individual

market. and getting insurance. but the number -- are we going to throw out our health care system for the 8 million who are chronically ill and without insurance for two years or more? those are the people we have to care for. >> igor, go ahead. >> well, kitty, sally is talking about the individual health care market and is we know that about 12.6 million americans were denied coverage in the individual markets and an inadequate solution. i don't want to get lost in these statistics. i think the reason most americans are uninsured is because health insurance is just too expensive. premiums alone have increased by about 119% over the last ten years. and 80% of that 47 million uninsured are a working class americans, with a member of the family who has a full-time job. americans can't afford health care coverage. and i think in terms of medicaid, sally makes a good point, and it makes it easier for people to sign up for medicaid. but i think it's again important to note that the number of insured, that 47 million, is just one sliver of the problem.

we also have 25 million americans with insurance, but they find their insurance inadequate, not enough to afford their health care bills. and, of course, we know that about 63% of americans have filed for bankruptcy have medical bills as a factor that contributes to the reason for the -- the reason why they went into bankruptcy in the first place. >> let me throw out -- i'm sorry, but let me throw out a question. the emergency medical treatment and active labor act, it's called intola, that's -- actually requires that everyone gets emergency treatment if they go to a hospital. how does that factor into this whole debate, because really, everyone can get treated if they're in an emergency situation. just -- how does that skew this debate? let me turn to sally for a second. >> yes. emtala is a law that california brought in, and it's true, no kun can be denied health care in this country. they can turn up at an emergency room, community hospital or clinic. and it's interesting, a lot of

people use emergency rooms and pay out of pocket. but when politicians start talking about the hidden tax that the uninsured are causing people with private insurance to pay a lot more, in fact, the uninsured only add about 1% to the cost of premiums from those people who have insurance. it's the medicare and medicaid low reimbursement rates that add 10% to the cost of those people who have insurance. so it's a very important point. government programs are not bursting. >> igor? >> i think that, you know -- i don't understand -- i don't know where sally got her statistics for 10%. we know that the cost shift that each family pays in their premiums is about $1100. it's not adequate, the emergency room, for americans who don't have insurance. you don't to condition to get to a point where it requires emergency care. if americans have access to preventative care, they can treat a condition before it becomes a dire condition, before you need to go to an emergency room. i think we're all very proud to

live in a country that treats americans in an emergency room setting. now we take that next step and treat americans before the condition becomes so fatal that you need to go into an emergency room. we can save money by preventing chronic conditions that we're not spending 80% of our health care dollars treating very expensive conditions like cancer. let's prevent them and save this country, and improve americans -- the health care of americans. >> sally, we have to make it quick. >> yeah, 82% of americans like the health care they have. we have a problem, because 64% of americans get their health care through their employer. if you lose your job, you lose your insurance. we need portable health insurance. and one point on preventative care. the cbo has said that preventative care is not going to reduce the cost of health care. it's going to increase it. so i think americans need universal choice in health care -- >> all right. we really have to hold it there.

>> okay. >> universal choice leads to universal coverage. >> thanks so much, sally pipes and igo, thank you. . lisa sylvester has an update on other stories we're following. >> thanks, kitty. hurricane bill is now a category 2 storm. but forecasters believe it could gain strength as it nears bermuda. bill is expected to pass between burr mud abermuda and the unite states. the east coast is already bracing for its impact. many states have closed beaches because of the threat of dangerous waves and rip currents. car dealerships across the country are preparing for a very busy, busy weekend after the administration announced the cash for clunkers program, it will end monday night. the administration calls the program a success beyond anyone's imagination. but many dealerships complain, they have been too slow in receiving their rebates. more than 200 dealerships in new york pulled out of the program earlier this week. and it was casual friday today at the new york stock

exchange. the gap clothing store celebrated its 40th anniversary by giving jeans to more than 1,000 traders at the exchange. the traders had to keep the rest of the dress code, though. a jacket and tie still there. the gap, which is listed on the exchange as gps, ended the day up more than 3%. and those are some of the stories we're following tonight. kitty? >> thanks very much, lisa sylvest sylvester. still to come, stunning new charges from the former secretary of homeland security about the political pressure, the terror alert level, and the election of 2004. also ahead tonight, charges of a conspiracy by republicans to block health care legislation. and the head of the federal reserve says the world economy is headed out of recession. we'll have all of that and much more, next.

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and nexium can provide 24-hour heartburn relief. headache, diarrhea, and abdominal pain are possible side effects of nexium and other serious stomach conditions may still exist. announcer: ask your doctor about the healing purple pill. learn how you can save online. if you can't afford your medication, joining me now in washington from politico is amen jamesers, and in new york, of opinion journal.com is james toronto and columnist dan gurstein. thank you for being here. we have to start with the comments president obama made that had us all wondering what he was talking about. let's listen to what he said, first. >> there is something about august going into september where everybody in washington gets all wee-we eed up. >> let's do this in a way that is family friendly.

i think it's when people get all nervous for no particular reason. >> but amen, let's start with you. are we really at the time in august where we debate these kind of things? >> apparently. apparently, we are. yeah, look, i mean, wee-weed up is a new one to me, but i think we understand what the president is trying to say there, a code for a somewhat more vulgar expression he was trying not to use and trying to make it family-friendly, and he did, and people have been having a chuckle about it ever since. >> it does speak to the debate. >> i have an alternative explanation. i think in washington, everybody tends to get wee-weed up about his level of incompetencies. >> you'll have to take credit for the line, though. let's go on to what he was actually talking about, which is health care, and we do have something that robert gibbs said today, but it's pretty

interesting. let's listen to that. >> he continues to be very resolved, to getting something done on this issue. the president continues to believe that the worst possible outcome is doing nothing. >> but if this passes without a single republican vote, would that be a victory? >> yeah, in political terms, it would be. i mean, it would be giving up the opportunity for a big bipartisan victory. but at this point, the white house has got to start to decide brass tacks. do you want a bipartisan defeat, or a partisan victory? they might be willing to settle for a partisan victory, if they can even get that, and there is no guarantees that they can corral all 60 senators and get democrats on board, all on the same plan, whatever it is. of but they might settle for a win of any kind, given the way this debate has gone south. >> i would say this is a moot debate, because the reality is the way the blue dog democrats are, and the moderate caucus in

the national, the president is not going to get votes without cutting off the public option, reducing the cost that will get moderate republican support. how much moderate republican support is hard to say. but i don't think you can pass a purely partisan bill. because if he can't get the moderate republicans, he won't get the centrist democrats. >> and it would be a victory if they won, because this would be the democrats taking full responsibility, the democrats would be -- would totally own this in the face of a public revolt against this legislation. and they would be taking responsibility for a bill that would be very expensive, that is very unpopular, and that is even potentially deadly. >> you know, i like to bring up two things. one is the poll that shows the government creating a health insurance plan. would you support the government, and it's really slipping. we have -- in june, it was 62% that would support, and now it's 52%. we also have nancy pelosi at a press conference in san francis francisco, saying the public option must be part of any of

the health care legislation. let's take a listen to what she said. >> there's no way i can pass a bill in the house of representatives without a public option. >> that's pretty intense. >> and what the really strange thing was, she was openly contradicted today by her house majority leader, stanny hoyer who said i think we may have to get rid of the public option. and i think that perfectly encaps lates what's wrong with the house of representatives, is they bungled this from the beginning and the big mistake president obama was sub the contracting the policy making, and he learned the lessons of the '93-'94 debate. and he is going to reassert leadership and put out his own plan and reassert to the american people what's in it. >> something more subtle might be going on here is that liberals are starting to realize that the opinion option is not really a viable option to pass, so they've got to use it as a bargaining chip in the debate. so it helps nancy pelosi to draw

dramatic lines in the sand and say how important this is to liberals and then when they give it up later, they can demand extreme concessions from the other side, saying we're giving up one of our most important items. so there is horse trading going on. i think a lot of this is pre-deal positioning. >> you know, we have to take a quick break, and we'll get to james on that, and we'll be back in just a second. so hear this: regions makes it simple to save money and time with lifegreen checking and savings for business, free convenient e-services and regions quick deposit, so you can deposit checks right from your desk. so switch to regions and start saving. plus, get a business financial review through a regions cashcor analysis. it's how business gets into the rhythm of saving. regions - it's time to expect more.

we're back with our panel. and we were cutting off james at the end about nancy pelosi's comment. >> i just want to make the point that i think it's a mistake to see this and this failure in progress purely in political terms. there are good, substantive reasons why it's failing. let cut past the jargon and the

public option demands that the government basically becomes an insurance company. like the post office competing with fedex and ups to use the president's analogy. there is a youtube video that shows clips, saying what they want is what they called single payer. this is a government monopoly on health insurance. the government would be the only insurer like they have in canada. and i -- and that the public option is a way of putting private insurance companies out of business, and leading the way into single payer. so, there are good reasons why people are afraid of that. they don't want a government know monopoly. >> obama is saying -- >> early on there was a decision made by republican leadership who said, look, let's not give them a victory. maybe we can have a replay of 1993-'94 when clinton came in. he failed on health care and we

won in the midterm elections and we got the majority. >> that's a dark accusation, dan. >> i think the problem, classic washington, there's a little bit of truth you go around everywhere. i think the president's right to a large degree. the republicans made a calculation that the president was weakened, democrats were weakened on this issue, we'll go in for the kill and we'll try to kill this bill. but one of the reasons republicans are trying to kill the bill is they don't believe it. if you don't factor that into the equation and the fact that there are a lot of centrist democrats who are skittish for the very same reasons, it gets a lot more complex. you got to separate the politics to the policy. to james' point, there is a fundamentally policy difference here. we're in a bind because there's so much confusion about the bills going through congress, there's five. >> eamon, the last word. >> losing health care to bill clinton was so damaging to his presidency in 1993, it really led to big losses in the 1994 election for democrats. everybody in washington is looking at that history and

trying to either replay it or totally avoid that scenario depending on where they stand. >> james, last word. >> but how can the republicans be sinking this bill? which party is it that has a 77-seat majority in the house and has a filibuster majority in the senate? i'll give you two guesses and a hint, it's not the republicans. >> on that note, eamon javers and james taranto, and dan gerstein, thanks for being with us. join us monday through friday for the "lou dobbs show." and go online to find your local listings. still ahead, he received a bronze star for training hundreds of iraqi soldiers to become better fighters. our "hero" is next. these days every penny counts with everything you buy. every head. every bite. every gallon. every shoe. every book. every cereal. well, maybe not every cereal. but every stem. every stitch. every tune. every toy. pretty much everything you buy

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and now "heroes," it's our tribute to the men and women who serve the country in uniform. and tonight we honor major arron bert, a proud member of our national guard. five years ago he was given the remarkable task of training hundreds of iraqi soldiers. bill tucker has his story. >> i want to get that decision made up today. >> reporter: arron bert has an innate desire to make a difference. as a citizen he manages capital projects in the seattle parks department. as a soldier, he was in baghdad in 2004. he was one of only four national guard captains charged with training some 700 iraqi security forces. >> we fought in an urban environment that was chaotic. and it was trying to adapt our thinking to a new fight, where reaching out, making connections with the populace, you know, the old adage of winning the hearts and minds, was coming into play, but it wasn't in vogue yet. the job that we were doing was a

job that normally special forces, you know, green berets, do. and yet here we're a bunch of national guardsmen. i was a finance analyst at the time with the city of seattle. we had a schoolteacher with us. we had a mechanic who worked on high-end hot rod cars. we had a guy who was actually a sheriff's officer. i mean, we were like a motley band of, you know, the citizen soldier. >> reporter: arron's return to civilian life was extremely difficult. >> trying to reintegrate with my family. i mean, my son at the time was 2. i'd been gone for half his life already. my daughter was a little bit older. the friction of trying to reintegrate to a married life was difficult as well. >> reporter: in 2008, aaron received orders to mobilize for afghanistan, to train members of their police force. >> there were ghosts on the payroll. people were being paid off. goods that the american people

had paid for were being stolen outright. you have to show them what right looks like. they may not do it, but you set the conditions in which they can make those right choices. >> reporter: aaron blogged about his experience in afghanistan for the "seattle times." >> they called it the other war. what i tried to do with this blog is maybe take it to maybe just a little different level of observations about, you know, one soldier in the middle of something larger, and how it's impacting him. >> reporter: since returning, aaron has been surprised by the lack of attention the war in afghanistan has received. >> we're entering year -- what is it -- nine almost in afghanistan. and there's no dialogue, and it just amazes me. because, what does it say about us as a society, as a democracy, if our citizens are not engaged, you know, in world affairs, where we have people overseas implementing the bill of our government. thle