and took off the hat and got right back down in that swamp? no, i think it's just algae-covered lake. i'm not sure why he's doing this. that doesn't matter, i guess. we are eternally grateful because he's one-of-a-kind. we wish you the best of luck with your new show. we will definitely be watching. that does it for this edition of "360." erin burnett "outfront" starts now. see you monday. we're on "the front line" in pakistan tonight. is it a rogue state? we went to karachi to sit down with the country's young men to find out. then herman cain's 9-9-9 plan, do the numbers really add up? and the bottom line on iraq. over the next two months our troops are coming home, but is our commitment there over? our commitment there over? let's go "outfront." -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com i'm erin burnett. "outfront" on a friday night, the end of the war in iraq. all american troops will be home by the end of the year.

that's 39,000 men and women. there was talk that 5,000 troops might stay next year, but, no. we've got jessica yellin at the white house and chris lawrence at the pentagon tonight. jessica, i wanted to start with you. this came down to whether our troops would be protected troops would be protected from prosecution in iraq in part, didn't it? >> reporter: that's right. the white house, this administration and the iraqi government were trying to work out a deal to get american troops immunity from iraqi laws so that some could stay behind as trainers and advisers. the iraqi government did not agree to that and you heard the president then announce that all u.s. troops would be coming home. some critics are raising security concerns with all u.s. troops leaving iraq by year's end, and the president emphasized that he has kept a campaign promise. this was a man who ran vowing

to end the war in iraq in his remarks and he also refocused america's efforts on taking out terrorists, especially al qaeda. he is underscoring that he has kept his promises to the american people, a surprisingly political message from the president along with this announcement today, erin. >> jessica, thank you very much. obviously, the campaign trail, perry, romney, cain, our political roundtable will weigh in on scathing criticism there. we'll go to the pentagon and chris, to hear what secretary leon panetta has had to say tonight. >> reporter: erin, he's traveling in asia right now, but spoke to reporters onboard the plane and he said now the pentagon has to turn its attention to establishing a long-term strategic partnership with iraq and even suggested that after all of the troops leave at the end of the year that there could be some initial discussions about perhaps bringing military trainers back to iraq at some point down the

line. i also talked to a top pentagon official here who said, look, they would have liked to have a standing presence in iraq, but barring that, they can see perhaps an area where they would take new iraqi officers, bring them to the united states to maybe have them learn in some of america's war colleges or each -- even conducting combined training with the iraqi forces at a third host country. erin? >> thank you very much, chris. we'll see whether this really is the end or not. we do know this. it has been a long nine years and a costly war for america. nearly 4,500 americans have died for the war since it began in 2003. the u.s. has spent nearly $700 billion on the iraq war alone, not including afghanistan, and the cost of continuing operations is about $4 billion a month. william cohen is former secretary of defense under president clinton. thanks so much for taking the time. it has been a long war and costly in many ways. lives more important than anything. the american people have spent a lot of our future money on this war. did we get what we paid for?

>> well, that's unclear. what we gave to the iraqi people was the opportunity to become a democratic country. more like what they asked benjamin franklin at the end of the continental congress, what have you given us? a republic. you can keep it. what we have given the iraqi people is an opportunity to have a democratic government. can they keep it would depend upon the forces inside the government whether they can reconcile the differences between the sunni and the shia. all of this is unknown at this point, but frankly, coming back to the present decision, i would like to have seen 30,000 or 40,000 remain for a limited timeframe beyond the end of this year, but if i had to make a choice as to whether they could stay without the protection of the force's agreement. >> immunity.

>> if they had no protection, i would take them out as soon as possible. >> i want to ask you, though, about this issue of paying, because it is a complicated question, and when i was in iraq covering the oil industr,y there was a lot of hesitancy among iraqis. not necessarily hate of america, but a real hesitancy to give oil contracts to american companies. whether it was based on animosity or just not wanting to look like they favor american companies. and now iraq is open to business and it is the second biggest oil reserves in the world and you're seeing chinese and russian oil companies get the majority of the contracts. shouldn't this frustrate americans? >> it's very frustrating. as a matter of fact, we've seen this take place elsewhere where we are carrying the heavy load in terms of the military obligation and the loss of life, loss of limb and not to mention the cost of our treasury, and yet, we're not getting the share of contracts that we should be getting. and this again gets back to the many miscalculations we have

made with respect to iraq. number one, how quickly the war would go and number two, to be able to pay their own way with the oil reserves. the calculations over the past nine years and there will be a great disappointment that the united states doesn't have a greater share of the economic opportunity now that they have a fledgling, at least, in a delicate and hopefully a democracy that will take root and become much stronger, but right now, it's still pretty fragile. >> let me ask you about this. you brought up the issue of paying for it and that was one of the initial things under the bush administration. we were told that iraqi oil revenues would pay for the war and obviously not the case. libya, the question coming up. i wanted to see more video. i'm sure you've seen some of it from yesterday. this is new video and equally as disturbing as what you saw last evening on the moments before and after moammar gadhafi was killed. there are growing calls to investigate whether he was executed. some of the videos and shots do appear to show a close shot

right to the side of his ear. his body in misrata and the family trying to say that it should be handed over to observe islamic burial rites. what have we signed up for? the president has tried to make it clear that we didn't break this. it's not our responsibility to fix it, but an unstable libya where extremists can be running wild, but it has a lot of oil and doesn't seem like it's something america can walk away from? >> not walk away from, but there are many countries who have an inrest in seeing a stable libya. certainly the british, the french and not to mention the other gulf states who have a lot at stake and also have a lot of money that they can propose to help stabilize libya until such time as the libyan people decide do they want revenge or do they want to have reconciliation? do they want to have a rule of law or the law of rule that they've had for all these years? they've got to make the decisions and i think fairly quickly because the euphoria is going disappear quite quickly, and then the question becomes what do we have? we have poverty or an opportunity to make progress and

have some prosperity. so the libyan people have got to get involved very quickly in this and we can play a role, but it's one where we can try to help build their institutions, but the money's going to come, i think from some of the states very close to libya. >> mr. secretary, thanks very much. appreciate you taking the time. you have a long flight today to come in to talk to us. he flew in from tokyo tonight, everyone. that's how much he wanted to do this. so thanks so much. let's bring in david gergen now. let's bring in david gergen now, cnn senior political analyst, john avalon, the daily beast along with j.c. watts, former republican congressman from oklahoma. let me ask you all this question of iraq.

did we win? this has now spanned two administrations. >> i think the secretary was right. we don't know yet. what do i think is that president obama, we have to remember, this -- the promise to get out of iraq is what ignited this campaign and what led him to the nomination and led him to the presidency, and, in effect, he's right that he has ended it as he pledged and for many americans this will be a walk-on moment for for those who study and think about this, for the way we go out will be a great disappointment. you heard secretary cohen say not 3,000 to 5,000, but 30,000. that shows how much military types really thought we needed to keep a significant presence there and the fact we couldn't negotiate some type of deal to keep them there with immunity says a lot about the fact that we don't have a relationship even today after all we've done for these people that that government isn't doing some of the things that's in their interests and our interests. >> that's the big frustration. it gets to the contracts which is after all of this, here we are. >> and that is a surprise to what extent. the country was broken and there are deep resentments and we're

not getting the, frankly appreciation that some might argue we have and let alone the back end of economic, but president obama's been able to do this. president obama was able to depolarize iraq which is deeply polarizing at the beginning of the administration. >> getting everyone onboard publicly? >> more or less. this is no longer the polarizing issue from the end of the bush administration. and he's successfully upped the attacks on al qaeda. not just bin laden, but leader after leader after leader and now this multilateral approach. it's been hard for the republicans to play. >> go ahead. >> i think it was very bipartisan until today, and the way we're going out has brought a very partisan response. the republicans are condemning this and the democrats are saying we ought to do this, yes, it's a risk and we ought to do it. i think all of us hope we leave with a sense of stability and together. >> but it's a sovereign nation and we can't determine that. >> j.c., let me bring you in on what david gergen said because

it is a partisan issue today. you have rick perry. i'm deeply concerned president obama is putting political expediency ahead of sound military security judgment. mitt romney, to secure an orderly transition. these are incredibly political statements, but they do show that all of a sudden is back on the table. >> iraq was not going to be off the table in a presidential election. it would have been an issue on the republican or democrat side. i think the way the president announced it, probably the republicans would take exception to it to say i'm fulfilling a campaign promise. removing 39,000 troops at the end of the year and going from 39,000 to 150, take the politics out of it and was it the right thing to do? was it the thing to do in terms of maintaining some stability in iraq and i think -- all of us objectively would question whether or not going from 39,000 to 150 in a very volatile situation is that the right thing to do?

now, when you consider what iraq has done in terms of not giving the immunity you know, that comes into question so trying to take the politics out of it and the right thing to do is trueing -- trying to determine if it was the responsible thing to do. >> we'll take a pause right there. all three of you will be back because we'll talk about what's out front next and that's herman cain. he was in detroit defending the 9-9-9 plan. actually, he made real news here. we went and ran the numbers, the bottom line. and flash robs and no, i did not misspeak. robs are the latest trend in crime. we'll tell you about it. and senator jeff sessions proposed an honest budget act today. is it truly the truth? we'll be back.

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446,745,562, that is is how many hamburger happy meals you can buy for $1.51 billion. that was mcdonald's net income in the third quarter. it makes you feel like you want a hamburger until you think about it. then you feel sick. doesn't it? all right. today presidential candidate herman cain addressed critics of his bold plan. the critics, you heard him at the presidential debate earlier this week, say he would raise taxes on most americans. in a blighted detroit neighborhood, cain said americans under the poverty line would pay a varied rate of income tax. so it would be 9-0-9 and then mr. cain said something else. >> bottom line, folks, 9-9-9 means jobs, jobs, jobs!

>> cain has said his plan would create 6 million jobs and that is enough to make up the gap in taxes. we did the math on how much the government loses in revenue when they cut taxes on individuals to 9%, on capital gains to zero. and the thing is it's in the corporate tax realm that things got hairy and as we were joking today, hairy like an ape hairy, real confusing. depending on what you assume, that's where the plan will succeed or fall flat. rich lowery is behind the 9-9-9 plan economic adviser. thanks for joining us tonight. we appreciate it. >> my pleasure, erin. >> i know you spent a lot of time on this, and we have spent a lot of time and used a lot of people on our economic strike team to look at this. and i wanted to ask you this overall as to why you're choosing to go into all of this detail, i'll figure it out when

i get there or chris christie saying i'm going to cut, cut, cut, and i won't tell you what it is until i'm in office and everyone criticizing him for not giving detail and then he did it. what about doing that? saying you'll get a tax cut and not getting yourself boxed into the details. >> we're not boxed in. that's a typical reaction where if you don't release details they're going to come after you for not releasing details. if you do release details they'll come after you for releasing details. so we're going stay above that and continue to sell the story to the american people that we need to get washington out of the middle of the tax code. we need to prevent them from picking winners and losers. we need to limit their power and influence and we need to return power back to the people, and if you do that it equates to 6 million jobs in an expansion of $2 trillion of gdp and an increase in wages of 10%. >> it's interesting, by the way, some of the math we did, one place where you may have

underestimated, under what we've seen, if your math is right on how much the economy will grow you'll get 12 million jobs, not 6 million jobs, which is something that makes you smile whether you agree with it or not. i talked to people on wall street about your plan, the way you treat companies may result in a world where companies may not want to issue as much debt and that affects earnings and that would cause the stock market to drop. there's a lot of potentially unintended consequences here. >> well, that's ridiculous. >> that's totally ridiculous. if the economy expands by $2 trillion and we're creating that many jobs, why in the world would the stock market go down. when you look at how we level the playing field between exports and world goods, exports now leave our country with high embedded costs that would have to compete in markets with low embedded costs and we're unproductive. the result is companies locate overseas to avoid those embedded costs and the jobs follow. under the 9-9-9, products and exports will not pay the

business 9 and they'll never see the sales 9. so, they'll leave here lean and mean and they'll be able to compete anywhere in the world. we're going to be a magnet for capital. we're going to be the place that companies are going to want to locate to be the most efficient producer to reach world markets. on the import side, imports come in today. they don't bear hardly any of our tax code. and under 9-9-9, the imports will come in and be subject to the business 9, the personal 9 and the sales 9. so that levels the playing field between them and domestic goods which also pay 9-9-9. so the problems we have are really more self-inflicted and it starts with the tax code and if you just level the playing field and allow the private sector to grow, we'll get back to the natural state, which is prosperity. >> do you keep a lot of corporate deductions that they get now, whether it's for interest expense or things like that? >> no. no.

the only deduction is going to be essentially gross sales, minus purchases from other businesses that are essentially subject to the same tax system. you can expense all capital investment. we're throwing out depreciation schedules and you can deduct exports and that's it. so companies that earn billions of dollars right now and don't pay any tax are going to be the ones that see their tax bills go up the most. >> companies that issue debt that americans rely on that they can't deduct, that they might not issue the debt, that might affect earnings. >> debt doesn't drive growth. >> it affects price to earnings multiples in the equity market. >> that's somebody's opinion. >> okay. >> solid, underlying fundamental growth is what's going to drive the market in stock prices. >> so i wanted to ask you this on the details, and again, i hear you, you're criticized for not giving them and you're criticized for giving them. are you continue to give more and more and drilling down further and further or is there a point when you will say enough is enough?

>> no, we've released this from day one. it's been there for anybody that chose to look at it. what we found is some don't look at it. the tax policy center when they released their study, they excluded the entire amount that we had carved aside for poverty exemptions so that they can draw a conclusion that this was going to hurt the poor. all of the detail has been spelled out exactly how much we have carved aside for poverty exemptions and it's been out there all along. >> we appreciate you taking the time. >> thanks for having me. >> so let's talk about how the 9-9-9 or 9-0-9 will pay politically. david gergen, and john avalon and j.c. watts. david gergen, what do you make of this tough thing? you can go down on the details anywhere here and cause all sorts of problems for the plan, but are they giving too many details or too few? >> no. this is the centerpiece of mr. cain's campaign. this is the most important pledge he's making.

he's now risen to the top of the polls in many states and it's imperative that people try to analyze his group, we need other studies of this plan to determine what the real effects are, otherwise you're buying a pig in the poke. as a political matter, we've been arguing for three years whether we ought to raise taxes on the affluent americans. this plan lowers taxes on affluent americans and raises taxes on working people. >> he would say -- to that point he'd say no, that's not true, because they'll pay a $500,000 car and you're paying $9,000 of tax and the lower income you buy used cars and this is where the detail comes in. >> one big analysis said 84% of people will pay more taxes and they clarified it since then, but i think they've got a real problem with this plan. >> what do you think, john? >> this is a problem with bumper sticker policy, the devil is int

he details, when rhetoric meets the real world. he deserves credit for putting forward a big idea and maybe that starts a big idea. rick perry's flat tax is a response to 9-9-9. some of the clarifications today made it less regressive and he almost put forth a pro-growth, anti-poverty agenda, but there are not a lot of details and when you get to how the marks work in reality in a globalized market -- >> that's where interest deductions is a big issue here that feeds all of the way through the 401(k). it doesn't mean it's not worth it, but there are repercussions. the devil is in the details. j.c. watts, what do you think? herman cain making a good case? because i will say this, he took a big hit in the debate this week in terms of people picking on him, but that did not affect him in the polls where he's still doing well. >> well, erin, dogs don't bark at parked cars. bottom line. the bottom line is this. we have a tax code that penalizes savings and penalizes productivity and god bless herman cain, for, i think,

starting a national discussion or notching up a national discussion about a tax code that's very, very warped. you know, we don't need more taxes. we need more taxpayers, and i think the fact that herman cain has put this out there, and i think actually in some sense, he has won because now as david said or one of our panelists said here, now rick perry's talking about it and you mark my word, rick perry won't be the last candidate from the republican side that proposes some type of new tax system because i think most americans

understand that it's very convoluted and it does all of the wrong things of trying to create productive human behavior. herman put it out there and he's prepared to defend it. rich came on earlier, five minutes ago to defend it, and i think that's what you have to do in politics. put the big ideas out there and let's have a discussion about them and as was said, he's leading in the polls. >> yeah. i just wonder, david, before we go. i had this conversation with ari fleischer today. it's great you put a big idea out and it's great if it sparks a conversation to change it, but if you want to win, there's a line between detail and giving a vision and where to draw that line is a big question. >> if this is the heart and soul of this campaign you have to defend it down to the details. >> yeah. maybe another promise in the campaign. well, thanks to david, john, j.c. and great to see you as always. have a great weekend. still "outfront," american music is more about advertising than entertainment. we could not resist telling you about this because there's something special in there. and senator jeff sessions introduced his budget act to cut needless federal spending and we ran the numbers. disturbing new developments in the baby lisa case. what the police found when they sent dogs in the family's home today. ver taking a bailout.

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>> now a story we can't resist. according to a new study on youth addiction, for every hour american teens listen to hip-hop, they hear more than three references to brand-name alcohol. the study analyzed 793, to be

exact, of the most popular hip-hop songs from 2005 to 2007, and it found that many of the songs seemed more like advertising than entertainment. well, it's a pretty interesting study so we decided to check the top 30 songs in the billboard charts for ours and this is what we found. there are a lot of references to brand names, but vehicles and other products seem to have surpassed liquor. vehicles. and we noticed something else, too. it is probably not fair to single out rap music as the only advertising offender because this is what we found when we checked the top 30 songs on the country charts. vehicles are at the bottom, but liquor other and products, mostly jeans and power tools, yes, are at the top! now the liquor brands mentioned in the rap songs say they're not actively markets to children, but admit they do retroactively reward the artists when the songs are successful.

that's why many groups have suggested the corporations can't be trusted to police themselves and they've asked the government and the media, us, to intervene on their behalf. that might not be such a good idea and we cannot resist showing you why. ♪ ♪ ♪ >> we just couldn't resist. still "outfront." the "outfront 5." >> this is a tragedy for the animal world is what it is. it could have been a bigger tragedy for the human world. flooding in thailand. >> just 24 hours ago this neighborhood wasn't flooded. pakistan's new generation. >> we are not terrorists, and we really aren't. we don't like guns. none of us like guns. >> all this "outfront" in our second half.

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we start the second half of hour show to front the "outfront" five. number one, herman cain, the presidential candidate clarified details of his plan in detroit. 9-0-9. "outfront" spoke to the creator of the tax plan, senior economic adviser to herman cain, rich lowery dismissed critics who say it will raise taxes. number two, strong earnings powering stocks higher. dow up two weeks in a row, 267 in the green today. it's all waiting for the european debt meeting on sunday. jim o'sullivan of mf global says the mood in the markets has been less negative and there is a lot of hope about that and also about the earnings reports out there. number three, a crackdown on exotic animals in ohio after the

owner of lions, bears and tigers set them free in zanesville, ohio, after setting them free this week. the governor says he'll use current laws to shut down exotic animal auctions. the state will also review all wild animal permits. we spoke to the owner of tiger ridge exotics who came up on a wednesday. he said the governor's crackdown, quote, what the governor did had to be done. you have to make people do the right thing because they won't do it on their own. it only takes a few people to screw it up for everybody. a message to the libertarians out there. there's one sitting next to me. a warning to store owners about growing trends, flash robs. groups of people organize themselves using texts, tweets and facebook swarm into stores and steal. it's a growing problem with more incidents reported nationwide. out front spoke to the national federation of retailers. they said one in ten retailers have been victims of multiple-offender crimes. it's been 77 days since america lost its top credit rating. what are we doing to get it back? sadly, not enough. since 2005 we've spent $350 billion in so-called gimmicks according to jeff sessions.

that's why he's introduced the budget act to cut needless spending and reduce the deficit. we did the math and the bottom line is it is not a lot. it is about 2% of the budget over the five-year period. is this pocket change or the beginning of a big idea. senator jeff sessions out front tonight to break it down for us. i know you're going to say it's 2%, but -- what's the but? >> 2% is a lot when you're talking about $3.7 trillion being spent. olympia snow and i, my colleague, we believe that the american people are rightly concerned with the way their money has been managed. it has not been managed well. we are using accounting gimmicks to spend more than the budget allows. we're not even passing a budget. in fact, we are now 905 days without a budget in the united states of america during the

time we've had the greatest deficits we've ever had, really, 40 cents of every dollar we spend is borrowed and that's just unacceptable and unsustainable. >> i hear you. $367 billion is a lot of money and it's extraneous spending and i don't think anyone would argue with you it should be cut. i wanted to ask you this, because even when you do that it is 2%. when you look at the deficit -- i'm sorry, the federal budget for 2010, the year that we've got, you're looking at medicare and medicaid, social security and unemployment benefits and 76% of that budget. that's where you've got to cut, isn't it? >> we've got to cut in all areas. we have to look at every single expenditure, erin. you're exactly right and i've never said this budget act would solve my debt crisis. we never pretended that. it's just a beginning of a national commitment that members of congress need to make to their constituents that they'll take seriously. there are responsibilities and when they tell the public they're spending so much, and not much more. >> quickly, before we go.

they want to put those entitlements on the table. >> everyone says they want to put it on the table and someone else will come up with it because people want to get reelected. so why not just put a plan on ask say, i don't care if i lose my job over this. it's the right thing to do. >> you know, that's been done. a number of people have proposed that. of course, the democrats and president obama has hammered anyone that has seriously proposed that. the house budget republican budget put out a long-term plan that provided a vision for a form of medicare and he was accused of everything of throwing the old people in the streets. >> so we've got to be honest about it. you're exactly right. it's necessary that we discuss honestly with the american people the serious financial condition we're in. we cannot continue. every expert, republican and democrat has told us that. >> that is true. erskine bowles, more democrats and republicans need to step up.

>> would it get done? should it get done. jonathan prince is the former adviser to the obama and clinton administrations. okay. great to have both of you with us. this is -- and you were the libertarian. >> correct. let's not make any -- the man in black. >> i don't want to slander anybody. >> if the senator had added five or six more things in his proposal might rise to the level of burnt -- i mean, this is a joke. it's hokeum, and we need a senate, but the whole government needs to but the a budget to

vote which they haven't done because they don't want to. we know we're running out the clock for fiscal year 2012. >> a balanced budget amendment. >> a balanced budget amendment, i call it the congressional cop-out clause to the constitution that basically said we can't make the tough choices we need to do, we can't make common-sense choices come together and do our job. it hasn't been under a constitutional requirement so we'll just mandate that we do it and if you look at it in the context of the republican party that right now is lockstep opposed to any kind of revenue, even, you know, spending to revenue 10-1. romney and the rest of the republicans have ruled out tax hikes on the very wealth owe millionaires. you know, it's draconian cuts. >> i don't think draconian cuts and we're talking about a federal budget that has gone up by 2,000 by 100%. or more than 100% in nominal dollars and all i'm saying is that it's not the republican party that's against revenue increases. it's economic history that since

1950, total federal revenues have averaged 18% of gdp. all attempts to butt that up hire, or shrink it under certain people it never gets very far from that for very long. if we want a balanced budget you have to start saying we'll spend 18% of gdp. maybe 19% under some cbo projections and that's it, and then you have to start cutting. >> what is wrong with the balanced budget? >> forget the politics of it. >> you can make the prediction in. in particular the notion that the government is actor of the last resort for the country. >> should they be forced to spend what they take? >> in a time of terrible recession or god forbid another depression or a war. >> right. >> but you can build that in with the super majority -- >> that's kind of the point. why do we need to have so much more. we have sub clauses and sub clauses about how an amendment would work. if you look at the plan that president obama presented to speaker boehner.

which is more cuts -- and in ten years we would be spending $5.7 trillion. there is not a single cut. you get the house republicans to agree to that. >> why would they? you're talking about increasing spending and under paul ryan's plan it would go to $4.7 trillion so neither of these people are at all legitimate when they're talking about cutting any spending whatsoever and that's on top of a decade of increasing spending. >> i knew a libertarian would come out. >> this is a joke. we need a budget and a balanced budget. what we need is a new senate and a new congress and a new president. >> not many people on either side would disagree with the congress part of that thanks very much to both of you. next, the latest on the baby lisa case. police using dogs in their home tonight. it, i'll be right back.

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i tell you what i can spend. i do my best to make it work. i'm back on the road safely. and i saved you money on brakes. that's personal pricing. we do this at the same time every night, our outer circle. we reach doubt sources around the world. tonight, we go to thailand, where floodwaters are pouring in. 320 people dead so far. $2 billion in damage. how is the government handling this? >> reporter: erin, the government has told all residents of central bangkok to

start moving their possessions to higher ground, clearly showing that the threat of the business district flooding has not passed yet. there are more suburbs across bangkok are starting to be flooded. this is as the government is opening up more flood gates and opening up canals trying to ease the pressure of this immense amount of water against the defenses of the inner city. but the misery is spreading. at this point, more than 9 million people across the country are being affected. >> thank you very much, paula. new developments in the search for the missing 11-month-old baby in missouri. police affidavit released today says a cadaver dog searching for evidence indicated a positive hint for the scent of a body next to the mother's bed. police left the home with blankets and toys. as you can see there, baby lisa's parents reported her missing on october 4th. her father said he returned home to discover the lights on, a tampered window and a missing baby. her mother denied any involvement at all. sandra endo joins us tonight. how reliable are these dogs when they say they picked up the scent?

>> well, erin, cadaver dogs could be 100% accurate depending how they're trained and handled. but obviously, a hit is important in this investigation. and i just want to show you the scene right now outside of baby lisa irwin's house. the grandparents of the baby is holding a prayer vigil right now. evidently, we haven't been hearing much from the family -- i'm john vols at the cnn center with breaking news, confirmation at the u.s. state department that saudi arabia and prince azbluz has died. the crown prince was the minister of defense and aviation and also inspector general. he was 81 years old, but there's no word on the cause of his death. i want to go now to our mohammad jamjoon in abu dhabi from this the question first is what implications of the death here

what does this mean for the house of assad? >> so many questions about the royal line of succession these past few years in saudi arabia. one of the reasons is because the king and the crown prince are so old. the king is believed to be about 86. the crown prince sultan, who is now reported to have passed away, according to a state department official, was, according to most estimates, 82, 83 years old. there is no specific birthday announced by the saudi press agency. now, this may set up an internal power struggle in saudi arabia. the problem becomes who will be appointed crown prince? while the interior minister of the country is the second deputy premiere right now, he is the third in line, will he actually be appointed to be the next in line? this is a decision that will be left had up to king abdullah. king abdullah, he just had a back operation in saudi arabia a few days ago there's been a lot of speculation about his health as well and for a while now, people have wondered what's going to happen when the current

generation, these are the sons of the first king of saudi arabia, these current rulers of saudi arabia, become too old to rule, when it will it become the next generation of leaders this ascend the higher a kirk people younger? currently the people appointed king of is saudi arabia have all been sons of the original king, king abdul aziz a lol lot of royal intrigue, power intrigue in saudi arabia, people wound what happened. king abdullah seemed to be progressive, seemed to be more from a more liberal camp in saudi arabia. crown prince sultan and his brother, the second deputy premiere, the interior minister, are seemed to be prom a more conservative wing of the royal family and this power struggle the last few years between the more progressive wing of the royal family and the more conservative wing of the royal family. they are all vying dominance. who exactly come out on as soon as possible this comes at critical moment at a time in saudi arabia, more and more people are pressing for reform

or calling for a constitutional monarchy, they want to see things kahne change within that country and this will certainly be a flashing point in that battle going on to see who will be pointed a crown prince, what decision the king will make, if he will, indeed, appoint prince nyack, the interior minister, seemed to be very conservative as his next deputy in line now and what that will mean for the progressive movement in saudi arab arabia. john? >> let's talk about death here, speculation about the crown prince's health for quite some time, believed to be suffering from cancer, went abroad many years, at least for a year at a time to try to get treatment. what else do you know? >> well, exactly, john. there's been so much speculation about crown prince sultan for some time now he has been thought to have been suffering from cancer for at least four to five years now. there were reports back in june that he had flown to new york for medical treatment. that raise aid large bells, people were wondering how bad lives ailing. for quite some time now,

diplomats, saudi diplomats and western diplomats saying the crown prince is not in good health. usually, they don't say this publicly. he has had several operations the past few years. most of the time in the last few years, he spent in morocco, where he has a palace, he's gone there, usually the saudi press agency stays is for convalescen convalescence, goes there for long periods to -- in order for his health and in order to be looked at by doctors. the reports in june were that he had had flown to new york and not seep subsequent reports after that that he had returned to saudi arabia. there was a lot of speculation he was in a hospital in new york, being looked at but wasn't much comment coming from saudi officials. i might add as of now, saudi arabia has still not commented on the deaths of crown prince sultan, while a state department official has confirmed it had, the saudis have yet to announce it yet to say anything about it. saudi officials just not talking at this time about the prince. and they are loathe to talk about this kind of stuff until they really have everything in order, until they are ready to

make an announcement, they usually stay quiet, especially when it comes to the health of senior princes in that hierarchy of the royal family in saudi arabia. >> what is the timeframe on that? how long should all this take before the government in saudi, before the royal family there actually decide that ready, they know what they are doing and make out, put out some kind of statement? >> john, usually takes a few hours o. >> right. >> usually, when it is something like this, it takes a while for everybody to get together, for all the calls to be made, for the -- before they make the announcement. and usually, an announcement of this nature is made first in saudi arabia by verses being read out on state television or on state radio. that is usually the first indication that the saudis are getting ready to announce, these core rannic verses are being played. that is what happened when saudi, the previous king died in 2005. then some sort of announcement made on the saudi press agency then you will see people come on television and start talking about t then there will be an

official mourning period announced. typically that is three days to a week after announcement of the passing of the figure. we expect that within the next few hours, there will be some sort of official announcement. it is interesting in this day and age when there's so much out there as far as social media and people in saudi arabia and people in the arab world tweeting about this saying that they have heard this and there is still no response from the saudis, but again, this is typical from the saudi perspective this is usually how they behave when this comes to this they will do this according to their timeline, make the announcement the way they want to make that announcement. certainly they don't like it when foreign governments make the announcement on their behalf or jump the gun. they would like tonight first in line to make this kind of an announcement, they see this as their matter and not comment on until they are ready to comment on the even knew state department official telling us, you can see the saudis not saying anything yet, not ready to and talk about it when they are ready at a to talk about t. >> mohammed, thanks very much, leave to you find more information out about this. of course, all speculation about

the health of king abdullah who just appeared on camera on wednesday after having back surgery. for those office just joining us, confirmation from the u.s. state department that saudi arabian croup prince sultan bin aziz died, he was the nation's minister of defense and aviation and inspector general, he was 81 years old. >> because of their concern, i would want to shift maybe to u.s., uk. i just want a good opportunity and i want a good life. >> i want to stay. >> if you guys leave, it gets one step closer to being a rogue state. >> but what do we do? how do we provide for our safety? do we also carry guns? do we roam around with an ak-47 on our back because you don't know if the guy in front of you want to blow up?

>> i asked the kids about more than 95% of pakistanis don't pay taxes. they said they pay more than any politician. that's a scary lesson for countries like greece and all of us. paying taxes isn't necessarily a bad thing. have a great weekend. >> piers: he says he was just being honest. >> when i get on plane goirkts tell you if i see people who are in muslim george w. buarb and i themselves as williams, i get nervous. >> npr hired juan williams and then fired him. >> if they take away the audience, they are saying you are muzzled. >> tonight, i will go one-on-one with him to check that honesty. plus kathy bates. >> i knew when