good morning to you everyone. welcome to earl earl. i'm ashleigh banfield. >> and i'm zoraida sambolin. we're bringing you the news from a to z. yesterday was our first day. today we're feeling comfortable. >> old hat. 5:00 a.m. in the east. we had very busy day for today. it's the big day. >> decision day in iowa. will romney hold on? what about the santorum push? voters hear the final pitches before the first real test of 2012. we were getting you up to speed on the bizarre fires. look at this man with the ponytail. he's been arrested. this is the worst string of

fires in that city since the riots of '92. get this. there may be annism grags beef allegedly involved with this arrest. lots more to tell yu about that. that's coming up. >> he looked like he was kind of smirking in that video. a man accused of killing a park ranger is found dead fats down in a waterfall. apparently the exposure to all the cold there. the mountain is shut down as the rangers regroup and mourn the loss of one of their own. >> we don't worry so much that the sniper is out there. they've shut down the search. they pretty much figure they've got the guy. also, did you feel it this morning when you woke up or did you have to shovel it? it has been a serious cold day in the midwest. it's basically slamming us this weather. it's actually moving into the east as well. a couple feet of snow in some places in the great lakes and down in the appalachians as well. if you woke up to see this or feel it, you're not alone.

there's strength in numbers. >> terrible. did you feel that cold blast of air this morning. >> look at miss yfrnlthsz. she's sleeveless. >> nothing like a nice warm studio on caucus day. >> let's start with decision day in iowa. we've heard from the candidates. now it's time to hear from the people. after hundreds of town hall, dozens of bus tours, the candidates are making final pitch for your vote. mitt romney confident but hedging, careful not to sound overconfident, however. >> i'd love to be number one. anybody would be. but coming in second or third is fine if we're all close together. it would give all three of us as a new boost as we go into new hampshire, south carolina and florida. my guess is if the polls are right, three people will have some supercharge coming out of iowa. >> did you hear newt gingrich admit he couldn't win iowa? he insists romney's campaign is

fatally flawed. >> he can't attract any conservatives in a party that is basically conservative. that bodes badly for his long-term prospects. i think i'll actually leave here strategically in better position than governor romney. >> that was on piers morgan last night. bachmann led in june, cain in october, gingrich and pauld both front-runners in december. now it looks like romney is on top. joining us live from iowa erick erickson editor in chief of. and rubin red rhett, "washington post." i think it's an understatement to say this is an unsettled field. seven head changes in the last six months. romney has been holding pretty steady here, 24%, 25%. has he reached his ceiling or can he get this conservative base back on board with him?

>> i think he will probably go up in the polls. by the way, the des moines river is starting to freeze over. that's how cold it is here. while he's campaigning around the state, you've got to remember romney has been campaigning since 2006, from an average of 23% in the polls to an average of 23% of the polls. >> but do we think that he can increase his conservative base? at the end of the day that's what he's going to need going forward. >> i don't think he can. >> he will be able to increase it some. >> ruben? >> i don't think he k. i think the problem is going to be if you don't like romney to begin with, it's very hard for you to warm up to him just because he's the defacto nominee or even if he has the best chance to beat obama. people will choose the candidate they want, not necessarily the candidate who is long-term

electable. it's startling to see 3/4 of the party not warm up to romney. the experts are telling us oh, don't worry, they'll come around. i don't think they will. they don't seem to embrace his candidacy. that's not going to change. >> let's talk about who is in first, second and third? a lot of people are saying out there's oh actually, when you read this morning, they're thinking this could perhaps be a three-way tie. do you gentlemen agree? >> i think it is going to be a three-way tie. interesting, mary matalin was saying last night, the santorum surge has stalled out in iowa. it was big for a few days. a lot of people coming are undecided. they're not necessarily there for santorum. it looks like it could be a three-way tie which opens up the lead a little bit to people like perry and to gingrich and to bachmann if they don't drop out. they can still in until florida. remember, only ten delegates in

the next two weeks picked between iowa and new hampshire. you have another 75 picked in south carolina and florida. >> let's talk a little about rick santorum. a lot of people are saying the surge can't last, he has very little money. he has no national infrastructure and no clear path to his nomination, that he can't even afford a rental car. how can he continue this momentum? >> right. i think all of that will change if he finishes first or second coming out of iowa. the checks will come in, people will be en tlus as tick. >> i'm not sure he's the best candidate. i know he's caught fire this close to the election. it's momentum that carries people through, enthusiasm that gets them out in the iowa cold to go out and caucus. i think it's really his to lose in that regard. it's very telling that mitt romney seems so enthusiastic about these three tickets coming out of iowa being romney, paul

and santorum because he's not afraid frankly of either romney or santorum. maybe he should be. >> newt gingrich is saying he's not going to win iowa. do you think he's discouraging his base support? was that a huge mistake he made? >> i think it was. he didn't have to say anything about his position other than saying, i'm going to do quite well. if he comes in behind rick perry there will be huge calls for him to consider getting out. the longer they stay in, the more it helps mitt romney. romney profits from the confusion and the rise of santorum. these other guys, some of them like mitt romney. they want to decide do we want to risk mitt romney or make a deal and decide one of us needs o to go. >> ruben nef vet and erick erickson, we'll talk much more to you. thanks for joining us now.

we've been talking about the really bizarre fire spree, over 50 fires that sparked in that area. now they're not burning anymore and there's this brand new video we can show you from an overnight arrest, the man in the ponytail has been brought in. he's 24-year-old harry burkhardt. they believe they may have their guy if you believe what they are actually saying to reporters on the scene, that they've got some evidence that came from his van. he's been charged with a single count of arson. remember, i told you there were over 50 fires. 53 fires to be exact in just four days. you can see some of the video yes eve been showing you over the last couple days. most of those fires were breaking out in carports, cars, particularly ones underneath apartment buildings. that's what caused the disastrous video you're seeing right now. the sources telling "the l.a. times" that this mr. burkhardt is a native of germany.

may have an immigration component to it. casey kynan, it's pretty telling that all the fires stopped the minute they took him in. >> reporter: absolutely. as we were discussing yesterday about this time, there had just been a rash of 11 fires near west hollywood neighborhood of los angeles and into the san fernando valley. about 3:00 in the morning local time they did arrest this suspect and the fires stopped and we have another quiet night tonight so far. what authorities are saying, they're crediting a lot of different fires to being able to arrest this suspect. they say the key tip came from tuchlt s. state department because of that connection regarding an alleged immigration dispute with this suspect's mother. also they're talking about surveillance video that was released over the weekend of the man emerging from the

underground parking garage here in hollywood and also crediting tips from the public who were very alert because so many members of the public were afraid of this arsonist who was going around setting fires to, as you mentioned, more than 50 cars. in the words of one l.a. city councilman, the city's four-day nightmare is now over, ashleigh. >> i'm fascinated. you say the state department got involved and that's where the immigration information came from. i have a feeling we'll hear more about that. casey, before we do that, i couldn't believe it when i heard the deputy who made this arrest is a part-time guy, actually a lawyer who moon lights as a deputy. he was vigilant and he actually spotted the van. what else do we know about this -- i shows we could call him a hero at this point? >> reporter: that's exactly what local officials are calling him. his name is shervan lal czarry. he's a full-time attorney in the

los angeles area, working as a short period of time as a reserve deputy for $1.00 a year. sheriff lee back ka joked yesterday that maybe he'll get a raise to $2.00 a year now that he's caught, ashleigh. >> i love stories like this. this is terrific that this guy was on the ball when he was patrolling. one charge of arson so far, 53 fires. does anybody know yet what exactly might have been in that van that mr. burkhardt was caught in? it sounds to me like what they're saying is they got the guy and they feel like what they found in the van is the definitive connection. >> reporter: that's what they're saying. they said they found fire sticks in the van, only charged with one count of arson at this point, but they expect more charges to be filed as this investigation continues. they're still poring over the scenes. for now he's being held without

bail. >> casey, fire sticks, i've never heard of that. i'll check into that more when we talk with the mayor of west hollywood who is coming up in just a few moments, he'll join us to talk about the investigation and so john duran coming up shortly. harsh winds and snowshowers continue this morning around the great lakes. beware, there are icy roads making for very dangerous driving conditions. meteorologist rob marciano joins us with the very latest on this forecast. boy, what a change. >> oh, yeah. and people as far south as atlanta, all the way down to south beach folks are feeling the chill. first we'll start with the snowfall totals. this is a lake-effect snow area. no surprise, but a slow start to the season, no doubt about that. 14 in chicago, 30 in new york. 25 in atlanta and windchills in the single numbers. streamers coming off the lakes

won't be as intense as yesterday. nonetheless, whiteout conditions in some spots and we have lake-effect snow warnings cleveland through buffalo, east towards syracuse. could see as much as another eight inches on top of what they've already seen. three to six inches across parts of the western slopes of the appalachians. as far south as the smokies, maybe into the blue ridge across parts of tennessee and north georgia. there are your windchill advisories and freeze warnings deep into the heart of florida, not only this morning, but tomorrow as well. that's going to be a dangerous situation for citrus crops. it will slow down places like laguardia. back over to you. >> rob, thank you for that. every morning after rob marciano, at least we figure that will be the order of the day, we like to get you something called the "early start" to your day. it's about news that's going to be happening a little later on, still developing. we're keeping an eye on it

closely. >> we'll begin in china where a senior u.s. diplomat arrives in beijing. kurt campbell, assistant secretary for east asian and pacific affairs will also visit south korea and japan during this four-day trip. potential break in a cold murder case in massachusetts. authorities in hampton county have uncovered new forensic evidence in the disappearance and murder of 10-year-old holly per rain anyone. folks are saying they'll hold a news conference later this morning. in about two hours, the first family will be wheels down in washington returning from the lovely vacation in hawaii. tonight president obama plans to address his iowa supporters, but by video conference. >> you see what they're wearing when they left hawaii. they're landing in the northeast. mr. president, madam first lady, it is real cold. when you get home, i hope you have a sweater. >> i'm sure coats will be waiting for them or they'll be changing on board. it is 14 minutes past the

hour. u.s. markets back open this morning after being closed yesterday for the new year's holiday. the dow, nasdaq, s&p 50 all closed lower on friday. right now stock futures are pointing to a lower open this morning. let's bring in christine romans who is adorable. >> oh. the first family is cold and the year was cold for stock investors. >> did you get the memo for wearing cardigans. >> i know. it's cold. >> nice to see you. >> thank you. happy new year. >> did you get a break at all since the market has been closed for three days. >> it was such a long and tortured year that you really needed a break. when you look at what happened in stocks last year, they barry moved. after all of that, at the end they barely moved. this year cnn money has an exclusive interview and they expect the s&p 500 to go up by about 7% this year. >> hey, party.

>> 7% is really not enough. >> which ones? >> right. so 7% comes after the smallest move ever for the s&p ever. last year it was down .003%. it barely moved after ar ran spring, after the fukushima plant. downgrade in the u.s. the concerns about the u.s. economy and the european economy. this year, 2012, looks as though stock experts think we'll see gains this year, that's if the u.s. economy continues to slowly heal and if europe doesn't completely desolve. >> thank you very much, christine romans. 15 minutes, 16 minutes past the hour. time to check the top stories of the morning. the candidates have spoken and iowa caucus-goers will be able to speak themselves. mitt romney and ron paul leading

the polls. rick santorum giving the good old push. many say iowans have the chance to change therapy minds. the iraq war veteran suspected of killing a park ranger is dead. 24-year-old benjamin barnes was found lying face down in an icy creek. he's suspected of gunning down ranger margaret anderson on new year eefs day. prosecutors beginning their case in the trial against hose any mubarak. he was wheeled into the courtroom on a gurney. he's accused of ordering protesters killed during that country's uprising last year. he could learn his fate by the end of this morning. we're keeping an eye on that trial for you. still to come this morning, a suspect in custody in the arson attacks across los angeles. we'll talk to mayor right after the break. it's either ugly or real

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good morning. welcome back. we are sitting in a nice cool studio at 21 minutes past the hour. there's weather all over the country. we're also finding out what's going on in your local communities as well. >> we have early reads of the newspaper this morning. we'll start with tallahassee, florida. >> i tell you what. this is a disturbing story, especially if you're a parent. in the tallahassee democrat, you've probably been following the story that had the drum major who was allegedly beaten in a hazing incident on the bus, robert champion. florida a&m is putting together something called an independent

panel of experts to try to find out how to deal with hazing. they're calling it a blue ribbon anti-hazing panel. by the way, this is a homicide at this point. this is going to get a lot more traction in the days to come, and probably other universities will be watching closely what florida a&m decides to do. i don't know what they're going to advise. but it's interesting to watch. the hazing is very popular across a lot of colleges and universities. >> it wasn't violent. a lot of drinking, but it wasn't violent. >> so let's move on to the "philadelphia inquirer," mayor nutter is sworn in for a second time. lots of pomp and circumstance four years ago because he promised the cut homicides. so right now philly tops the list as the city with the highest homicide rates of the nation's ten most populous cities. so he failed. however, he does say he's going to take on gun control now, gun legislation. we'll see how he fares there. >> that's not such a bad failure

if you get a second term. you may not have met your goals. >> it's kind of interesting, maybe it's because he is going after the gun legislation. he's got people fighting him on that. >> from one mayor on one coast to a mayor on another coast. a big story that has a lot of people talking. it tease series of fires in los angeles. in fact, we can rest a little easier this morning. police say they have put an end to that arson spree, but not before about $3 million in damage was inflicted on the community. 24-year-old harry burkhardt from germany originally in custody. he's the one smiling to the left of your screen there with the ponytail. not sure what he's smiling about. at this point charged with one count of arson. but officials saying certainly more charges may come down the pike because there are 52 fires that were raging in just the last four days. an immigration beef is what

we're starting the hear about as a potential motive in this if this person is the suspect. joining me live from los angeles, mayor of los angeles john duran. >> good morning. >> we quoted a statistic that there hasn't been this kind of violent spree since the '92 riots. do you feel pretty confident at this point that the police have their man? >> you know, as i was driving down sunset boulevard to get here to cnn, it's the first night in many nights i didn't hear sirens all over the city. the last four nights we've had sirens going off, 1:00, 2:00, 4:00 in the morning, siren after siren after siren. tonight it's quiet and it's cool. back to normal. >> i feel that. i get the sense that people are at ease. i still am a little confused, to set that many fires with one set of hands is pretty hard today in four days. that's why i'm so curious as to

why they think they have their person or if there may be more people out there who may have been connected to the suspect. >> there may be more people out there. i know the investigation is on going. the person in custody is being interviewed to see what he's got to offer. search warrants were served on his home earlier today. more evidence is being collected. there may be additional people. but to cause that much havoc in such a large swath of the city over the last four days, you're right. it does suggest more than one people involved. >> you say a search warrant executed on the home. we had a feeling that the first search warrant was executed on the van. comments came in overnight about the van yielding a plethora of information. our casey wian reported minutes ago that they found fire sticks. i'm not going to suggest you're an expert in arson, but do you have any idea what the police officials are saying when they say fire sticks and other evidence. >> by day i am criminal defense

lawyer, mayor by night. i do know that we're not getting a lot of information law enforcement because they're trying to preserve the integrity of their investigation so they'll have a successful prosecution. i did hear of the news reports earlier this evening as well. it's important to remind people, it wasn't about setting cars on fire. cars being being used to set buildings on fire. the only cars targeted were cars in carports under dense and crowded apartment buildings. we felt like a city under siege for the last few nights, what were being targeted were rent controlled buildings with hundreds of people who barely had time to get out with kids, pets and photo albums. >> i have to wrap it up, but i have to ask you, you're the criminal defense attorney and you hear the state attorney is

involved and you hear they have information about immigration possibly being an issue. >> we hear he had a problem with immigration decisions made about a family member. it was his way to take it out on the united states of america, because it is a criminal threat. it is being reviewed to see if we have something more akin to domestic terrorism. >> that's a tough case to defend when you have that kind of fire power coming in from the government. mayor duran, thanks for coming in. i appreciate it. democrats waiting to jump on the winner of tonight's caucus winner. they're already hitting romney hard. are they ready for a surprise? >> are we ready for a surprise?

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hi everybody. good morning. 31 minutes past the hour. so wake up! get in the shower, you're going to be late. >> you have to go back to work today. ashleigh banfield, zoraida sambolin. democrats ready to pounce on the winner of the iowa caucuses. >> i figure they don't want romney. that's my guess. we do this crazy thing, i don't know if you were watching yesterday because it was a holiday. we do this thing where we decide to call people and wake them up

at 5:00 orr 6:00 in the morning and get their opinions on whatever is going on in the news. the person we'll wake up today, i could get in a lot of trouble because he was on the sopranos. i'm not going to tell you who it is. he was on "the sopranos," he didn't live to see the finale. do you have an idea? >> no, because i never watched. >> a good thing he's sleeping right now and not hearing that. so there's your hint. i might give you a clue later. i could be sleeping with the fishes for waking him up. he's huge into politics. that's a great part. what a great day to talk to him. 30 minutes past the hour. let's get you caught up on the headlines. here is a good one. a man suspected in the l.a. arson spree in custody. fires have stopped. police arrested 24-year-old harry burkhart in connection with more than 50 different arson fires that started since just last friday. right now burkhart is only charged with one count of arson. but they say he can expect to face more as the investigation

continues. he's being held without bail, too. that says a lot. police are looking at an immigration dispute as motive. syria's state news agency reporting an armed terrorist grew up a pipeline cutting off supplies to two power plants there. anti-government activists tell cnn the assad regime blew up the pipeline to distract international monitors from continuing their work in syria. a and a very big blast of cold air from the great lakes heading east. snow, blizzard conditions, yucky, yucky winter, it actually triggered some bad accidents. take a look at this video, a crash on i-75 in northern kentucky. 41 vehicles. not good news there. tonight the iowa caucuses will start at 7:00 p.m., that is central time. the first prize for the republicans who would be president. mitt romney, ron paul and the

surging rick santorum are the favorites going in. many caucus-goers say they could still be swayed another way. anything can happen. a lot of people are talking about a three-way tie. it's caucus day, what did you get me? i'm kidding. i do adore caucus day. it is the kickoff to the 2012 campaign season. doesn't matter if you're a republican or democrat. if you don't know, there's not a lot of coverage, the democrats have caucuses across iowa. it's just that all the focus is on the republicans. what about the democrats? what are they doing? does it really matter? p.s., as we move toward general election, what's the strategy? jennifer saki is the democratic strategist and perfect to ask this morning. >> congratulations on your new show. >> thank you very much, my friend. you're one of our first guests. let's talk strategy. i love this. i've been so caught up in the republican race and having such a thrilling ride on the roller coaster that i sort of forgot

that there are democratic caucuses. at this point are you phoning it in? are there other candidates? what's the deal? >> well, look tlrks's a caucus every two years here, a little-known fact about iowa. what is important about tonight for the president and for democrats across the state that it's another opportunity for him to continue the conversation with the people of the state. he'll be live streaming -- >> by skype? >> sort of like that. he'll be live streaming into caucus sites across the state. and where that's not possible, he'll be over a phone conference. so he's looking forward to continuing the conversation. the other interesting thing about today and the next couple of weeks for us is that while many republicans, all the republican candidates pack up their offices and take their down signs, the obama campaign has eight offices across the state already. they'll still be open for

business tomorrow. they've already made 350,000 calls to voters across the state. we'll be continuing this tomorrow even as the focus and the republican primary moves to new hampshire and south carolina. >> lets you and me move ahead to the bigger battle, the general election. i think you got this caucus and primary thing sewn up. in this general election there's a great "new york times" piece that came out in the last couple days talking about the democratic strategy, kind of har continui kenning back. a lot of people are saying that is exactly the strategy that obama is going to adopt, the old truman strategy. in fact, to that end it looks as though newt gingrich and mitt romney are picking up on that. look at the things that they just said about obama versus congress in the last couple days. have a listen. >> this is like a kindergarten

play. how are you going to pass appropriations bills? how are you going to deal with anything for 12 months? i don't think t i looked at the tv and thought these guys are totally out of touch with reality. >> the mantra is this is a do-nothing congress and this is the congress's fault. he's forgetting he had a democrat congress in place for the first two years and put in his economic plan. >> here is my question for you, jennifer, if the battle is going to be strategically this is a do-nothing congress, is president obama going to be facing off against one of these particular candidates in the republican party or is he facing off against john boehner? >> look, we'll see. i wish i could have a role in picking the republican nominee, but i don't. i think what's interesting here is i don't know if mitt romney and newt gingrich are defending congress and how congress works or their republican colleagues in congress. let's not forget the last action they took was to take weeks to

pass a payroll tax cuts. >> it's beginning. your strategy is beginning. i can hear it. >> one more important point to make and that's that you can't always believe everything you read. the president has had many successes by working with congress, health care reform, financial reform and he'd like nothing more than to pass the remaining pieces of the american jobs act. he will be working with congress, but he knows he can't leave all the eggs in that basket. just as he did in the fall, he'll be looking for many ways. >> come back again. i appreciate this. >> have a great morning. >> have a fun day and night. >> i'll try. >> jennifer psaki squloining us live this morning. we're keeping you in the pop culture loop by taking a look at what's trending on the web and in social media. take a look at this. it is trending on google. some people loved it. a 70-foot corporate octopus of greed made entirely of recycled

bags, it hovered over protesters who tailed over the parade. some folks booed while others were just standing by in amazement. >> not the prettiest thing, but certainly makes a statement. >> it sure does, a big statement. i love this next one. ♪ what you want baby i got it . who is that? >> aretha. >> that lovely lady on the arm of her sweetheart apparently is engaged. she lost 85 pounds apparently in the last year because of a health scare and says she's a brand new woman getting engaged to her forever friend, willy william wilkerson. do you know the dress designer? she's talking about donna koran, val teen know and vera wang. the best part. she's 69 years old. i love her. she says i'm not pregnant, not a

shotgun wedding. go, girl. love her. >> ahead on "early start" firing up the phone. i'm not going to tell you who he is. you know him best as joey pants from the sopranos. >> apparently ralphy is a huge politico. he loves politics. this is his day and he's a brand new grandfather. i was out to dinner with him a while ago. we'll wake him up and ask him what he thinks about today, the iowa caucus day. on my journey a, i've learned that when you ask someone in texas

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hi. nice to have you back with us. good morning everyone. this is "early start." 5:42 in the east. >> time to wake somebody up. >> this can either get us fired or it could really endear us to some people. we're dialing joey pants' number. >> looks like maybe we miss dialed this. >> i don't know if we're calling his cell phone. joey and i were out for dinner a while ago at a political thing. he happened to mention how absolutely gaga he is over the political process. i filed it away for caucus days, because i thought, maybe i'll. >> chat with him a little bit. >> wake him up and ask him -- >> the number you dialed is not in service. >> did he give me a fake number?

this happened to me in college. we'll keep trying. we have a couple other numbers. >> that's what happens when you do something like this. very ex-tell rain yous. you take a number and dial it. you don't want to do it ahead of time because you want to wake up these folks. >> or the person in our control room dialing is terrified because this is a soprano figure and he's terrified of waking him up. let's get you caught up on the top stories. there's good news actually if you live on the west coast and if you're an american. a suspect has been arrested in the string of weekend arson fires in los angeles. there he is on your screen. there he was, this is the person they were looking for, 24-year-old harry burkhart suspected in this series of incidents. they say he may have been the person behind 50-plus fires and captured on video near the scene of one of those fires. the sources are telling "the l.a. times" that burkhart, a native of germany, may have been in a dispute with federal

immigration officials. $3 million in damages in that spree of fires. >> you know it's down to the wire in iowa. the gop candidates making all the last-minute pitches to the caucus-goers. nearly every single candidate held the lead in the state at one point. right now the race is in a three-way dead heat between romney, paul and santorum. with 41% of caucus-goers saying they could change their minds, it could be anybody's game still. >> you wonder if the endorsements that come from papers make a difference because the des moines iowa register endorsed mitt romney. coming up later in the program we'll speak to the editor of that paper and not only ask about that endorsement but about everything going on in iowa. it must have been an absolute cirque du soleil. interesting op ed piece. we'll be right back with so much more for you. that bacteria likes to nestle into and they can cause the odor.

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♪ tonight's the night ♪ it's gonna be all right

>> i suppose it's -- tonight's the night it's going to be all right depending on which candidate you are. rod stewart singing us into good morning. it's caucus day in iowa. >> we are welcoming you back to the cnn election center. the race is incredibly tight and unpredictable. we're talking to rick green, the editor and face behind the front pages of the "demain register." are you there? >> i am. good morning. congratulations on your new show. >> thank you very much. nice to see you. let's start with the op ed piece you wrote. it's kind of a 101 on the caucus. we were talking to folks who said it's between two to four-years that you caucus. is it every two years? >> four years. >> why did you feel the need to give a 101 and encourage people

to go out to the caucuses? >> this is an incredibly important day for iowa as well as the rest of the country. the eyes of the nation have been here for the past 12 to 15 months. we spent an awful lot of time listening to the candidates and doing more than just going to they're vents. iowans are incredibly independent thinkers, but also they embrace this responsibility so greatly. they've listened to the candidates, dissected their issues, their platforms and listened very closely to the platform. for everything we can gather, there seems to be greater emphasis on that responsibility of the republicans this cycle. there's a sense among a very large contingent of iowa republicans that you have a very vulnerable president right now in the white house, perhaps the most vulnerable since jimmy carter in 1980. despite the hand-to-hand combats and negative avds and this $10 million ad blitz, the one thing unifying republican ss can they take back the white house.

that's why tonight is so important for them. >> rick, we're hearing it's going to be perhaps a very low voter turnout tonight. do you think there's apathy within the state because of the choices in the candidates? >> we haven't picked that up. 2008 was the record year in terms of attendance out here. republican caucus, a little over 118,500 here. the good thing, the weather looks great, no snow. a chilly night. we're expect ag pretty strong turnout. tissues have dominated this campaign so much. a lot of the attention in the past couple weeks or so has been focused in on the negative ads and the rise and faum of some of the candidates. it will be very interesting tonight to see who is able to bring out their caucus-goers, who has the best ground game and what unfolds in another 15, 18 hours or so. >> you have actually endorsed romney. how do you think he's done in the state since that endorsement? >> you know, what was really interesting is that mitt

romney's crew has really tried to downplay iowa. it wasn't until a week or so before christmas that we could detect that they felt there was some traction here. throughout the holiday cycle he spent more time in the past two, three weeks than he has in the entire 14 months or so preceding the campaign. yesterday, the number of stops he made was greater than anything he's done in his entire tenure out here during his campaign. i think he's got an understanding that there's a chance that he could win this. there's not been a nonincumbent republican that has won both iowa and new hampshire in the same year. we'll see what happens tonight. >>. >> i i have to say it was huntsman who had some harsh words. can we play that? >> they pick corn in iowa. they actually pick presidents

here in new hampshire. i got to tell you my mouth was wide open. my jaw dropped. how do you feel about hearing that? lau do iowans feel about that? >> it would have been much better for jon huntsman to come hear and express his vision for america instead of taking cheap shots at new hampshire. we're very proud of our reputation. we're proud of the role we play in american politics every four years. do we pick the winner every year? no. not every state does. but the role we have is a great tradition and we're very, very proud of that. >> thank you very much. rick green. good luck to you. nice talking to you this morning. >> thank you. you, too. it happens tonight. the country's first real votes. the candidates' first true test. special live america's choice 2012 coverage of the iowa caucuses begins at 7:00 p.m. eastern right here on cnn. right here in the election

center, too. very exciting place to be if you've ever seen john king and a magic wall. goose bumps. still coming, thanksgiving revenge. a turkey went flying right through that tucker's windshield. poor turkey. we'll tell you how this things ended up. here is a hint. the trucker is okay. when you have diabetes... your doctor will say get smart about your weight. that's why there's new glucerna hunger smart shakes.

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this is weird. a driver getting a wild ride in his big rig when a wild turkey -- i don't know if it was a wild turkey, but a crazy turkey crashed through his windshield. it happened in northern kentucky on i-75. apparently the turkey hit the driver right in the face. he's okay. he pulled over the big rig. here is the weird ending. he tossed the turkey out. my guess here, i don't have a definitive ruling from the hospital, but i don't think the turkey survived this. still ahead, police in los angeles say their four-day nightmare is finally over. the man suspected of setting more than 50 fires is now in custody. a dispute with the government over immigration may be behind the alleged arson spree. and just hours to go in the iowa ground war. we'll talk with our political panel about the likelihood of a

big upset in tie wa caucuses. -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com

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