>> i'm good. >> she later said, i fell on the butt in debuke. >> reporter: jeanne moos, cnn. >> i ride horses. that was nothing. and here we go, top of the hour, i'm brooke baldwin, watch this. tonight, just hours from now, voters in iowa will make their choices and cnn will cover this like no one else can. we'll have all of the action, all the new technology and a couple new surprises up my sleeves. i'm brooke baldwin. the countdown to the caucus starts right now. they came, they saw, they competed. well, most of them any way. now the republicans who want to be president let the iowa voters decide. >> i believe we're the best alternative out there. >> rick santorum riding a wave. has he done enough to convince voters on the fence? >> get the ballots i need, votes

i need to become our nominee. >> mitt romney hoping to win the first prize while his targets threaten. >> and a sea of loyal reporters. >> it's to protect liberty: strap in, get ready. the candidates make their final pitches. >> all right. here's what we're watching for you out of iowa. negative vibes rising on the campaign trail. also, what happens to tonight's losers? newt gingrich changes his expectations today. time to play. dana bash, i know you spent your time at a local event.

who got the warmest welcome? >> it was interesting, brooke, the young people, 800 students in this one auditorium, they were undecided. they walked to several of them. in fact, most of them are going to go and caucus for the very first time tonight and they were all willing to listen to rick santorum, michele bachmann, and mitt romney's kids about why they thought that their candidacies were the best. very interesting. this is a very small university. 120,000 people only caucused in 2008. that's a lot of people to try to sway. >> dana, i know that you have been with the ron paul camp the last couple of days. he's been slipping in popularity lately. he can take one of the three spots tonight, top three?

>>. >> they still claimed that they are confident. if you look at what they are doing under the radar, it gives you a sense of what they are thinking. our senior radio kor spoon debt found a new ad running today where ron paul really slams mitt romney as liberal. that's the exact same term that he used with an interview with me yesterday talking about rick santorum. so he is trying with the other candidates and the point he's trying to make that he, ron paul, is going to cut $1 trillion in spending and he's been consistent with his views. they are certainly offbeat when they look at the rest of the republican field and he's been consistent and back to those young voters that i spoke to this morning, many have said that they are going to vote for ron paul and the reason they gave is because of his views on the economy and they say at a time when they don't like politicians, at least he's been

consistent with his views. >> he's the oldest. 77. next on reporter roulette, shannon, you've had an iowa mailing address for a little while now. you've come to know the reporters more than anyone. what should we expect tonight? >> well, brooke, i've been here for five months now and tomorrow, a great place to be here in iowa but it will be nice to sleep in my own bed. on to your second question about what we can expect tonight, what you can expect is these iowans to butt the polls and pundits and we are going to support the

candidates that they have met these candidates face-to-face and we have pressed the flesh and we're going to caucus behind the candidates that we feel are going to best take on barack obama. that being said. and what is really a bit question about tonight, the evangelicals that make up of the electorate in iowa. who will they co-he will less around, some of them going towards newt gingrich and rick santorum, that's a key question for tonight that we won't have answered until after the caucus, brooke. >> we talked about the potential winners. what about potential losers because they are also very much known for ending political campaigns. will people bow out after tonight? >> we all know that they have

been known to crush many a campaign. it's hard to tell. look, all of the candidates up until now will say, we're going to forth ahead and talk with michele bachmann on saturday. she's running a 50-state campaign. santorum has said that he will forth ahead. but the reality is that if some of these candidates don't do as well as they hoped they would, if someone comes in less, they will have to reassess and re-evaluate the status of their campaign. and you might see someone, some people, some candidates bou out. again, there's no sign of that at this point. all of the candidates will continue to go, brooke. >> it's easies for now, cedar falls is the largest caucus location in the state, correct? >> yeah. you'll probably see behind me. i'm in this huge aud toir yes, ma'am in the university of northern iowa and several

bleachers that we expect to be held with 6,000 people tonight. it's the largest caucus spot here in iowa. they are going to have boy scouts from one into another, sending the vote tallies and i'll be doing a lot of chasing. i don't have on my sneakers but i should put them on. >> definitely throw on the sneaks. shannon travis, you've got your work cut out for you. five months in iowa. joe johns following newt gingrich in iowa 250u day. how's he feeling? >> reporter: newt gingrich lowered expectations to go along with his lower polling numbers but said that he was not going to win after a supporter told him that kind of language is not helpful. is he actually sharpened his language when it comes to mitt romney calling him a liar. expect more of that kind of talk

as the gingrich campaign moves to new hampshire, south carolina, and beyond. but for today, the gung rich campaign is expected to wrap up the day at a big caucus site in the cedar falls area and then coming here to des moines to await results. brooke, back to you. >> joe, thank you so much. live 2012 coverage of the iowa caucus is the big show that begins tonight. 7:00 eastern right here on cnn. still ahead, chuck grassley has yet to make an endorsement so i'll put him on the spot hours before the caucuses. we'll hear what the senator has to say live coming up. also a bizarre murder mystery after a body is found on queen elizabeth's estate. also, iran, delivering a big warning to the u.s. involving a warship that could spark a nasty standoff. and on the first trading day of the year, stocks surging we'll

tell you why, next.

if it's interesting, it's happening right now. rapid fire, let's go. good news for those of you in the l.a. area. the l.a. county sheriff's department crediting sherv shervin lalezary for catching the suspect. >> thank you to the west hollywood station for coming

into work every day doing this full time, putting their lives on the line every day full time. i really appreciate everything you guys do and i look forward to coming back from my next shift with you guys. >> we also know today the arson suspect is harry burkhart, he's a german citizen. burkhart carried a grudge against america because of a deportation conflict involving his mother. a woman's body was found on sunday on queen elizabeth's estate. this is where the royal family spent holidays like christmas. the remains were found by someone walking in the woods. we don't know how the woman died or how long her body had actually been there. police are looking at cold cases as part of this investigation. and iran just wrapped up ten days of war games in the persian gulf but the exchange of words remain heated.

the pentagon rejected a warning to keep u.s. aircraft carriers out of the gulf region. >> we take seriously the role that the united states military and particularly our navy plays around the world in ensuring freedom of navigation through essential roots. >> in the meantime, iran says they don't respond to u.s. threats and the u.s. says that they are not seeking a confrontation. three eggs r explosions rocked kandahar killing more than a dozen people there. an explosive device went off, didn't jury anyone, but a suicide bomber on a motorcycle blew himself up in a crowd. and much of the midwest, maybe that's you, digging out of the first major winter storm of the year. heavy snow and ice caused

multicar pileups. 18 cars involved yesterday. in kentucky a. pileup of 30 cars closed i-75 for four hours in grant county. a cold system is causing temperatureses to plunge in the southeast today. and some good news, shall we? big board stocks surging. take a look at all of the green there. up 218 points. alison kosik, what is behind all of the green? >> yes the bulls started charging out of the gates today as well as in china and india. so what do we have? bank stocks are rallying. all up 4 to 7%. guess what, no negative headlines out of europe to ruin the party just yet. brooke?

>> we were just talking about the tensions between iran and the u.s. and because of that oil prices rising over the anxiety of it all. >> exactly. oil prices settled 4% higher, about $103 a barrel. it's at the highest level since last spring and it's what you said. this continuing anxiety about iran provoking a confrontation with the u.s. or actually making good on its threat to shut down the strait of hormuz where 20% of oil that's traded worldwide passes through there. so, yes, with iran stepping up, the tensions even more over the past few days by launching those -- test launching those missiles. that is pumping up the price here. those worries playing out and shutting down the straigh could cause a $40 price fix. they often trade on rumor and that's why you're seeinging that spike in oil prices, brooke. >> alison kosik, thank you.

still ahead a. city on edge after a series of bomb attacks and there is one very big development thon story today. plus, what's the obama campaign's biggest fear when it comes to tonight's caucuses and primaries down the road? and it's not just republicans caucusing tonight. jessica yellin standing by once again in iowa. she's next.

a little bit more on the iowa caucus from a different perspective. what about the view from the obama campaign? we're back to jessica yellin, once again pulling double-duty

for us in iowa. jessica, do you have any inkling at all what they are hoping for? remember well, they are watching in interest but the ideal outcome for them would be, in my estimation, a long drawnout republican primary to begin with and for tonight if the most conservative candidate were to win, rick santorum victory, fex, would bring smiles in chicago and the white house and here's why. because if a more conservative kantd date wins, the belief is that mitt romney will be the event nominee. so if the obama campaign believes that's the most likely outcome but a conservative like rick santorum wins tonight, then in theory that would force mitt romney to run to the right, to win more votes in the upcoming states and to beat rick santorum

ee then romney and a little confusing and convoluted but that could spring smiles. >> >> what about the caucus? what about the democrats? >> reporter: yes, they are caucusing and the president is also going to be addressing the caucus-goers here and taking a few questions from caucus-goers and interactive q and a. they are using this as a way to sort of energizing voters because it's a big swing state.

>> how fearful is the obama campaign in this scenario which romney wins tonight, blows the doors off in new hampshire, uses that momentum for 21st do they fear that could happen? >> i wouldn't say fear. let's be realistic. the truth is, they are planning for a romney campaign. they expect him to be the nominee. the only worry is that they would get there more quickly and then they would have to start the general auto elects soon and that would be less ideal because they prefer the drawn-out republican primary because then the republicans are all taking aim at each other and doing the work of attacking romney so the president doesn't have to do that a., b, a shorter primary

means that it will cost the president more money and it's really about how long the election would be. >> so seeing the president full time on the campaign trail is predicated by the primaries? >> reporter: the expectation is that he will definitely be full-time on the campaign trail from the convention on. we'll see him more regularly beginning in the summer and for now we're going to see him doing events two, three days a week but not more than that at the very next few months. she has an event in ohio where he will be pushing some of this job ideas and pushes his own ex tif actions without congress, brooke. >> jessica yellin thank you so much for us in iowa. thank you. we're going to take you back to

our special political coverage in a moment. first, i want to get to this mystery unfolding in new york. and in one attack, someone fired a cocktail through a living room window. the feds are involved and a very big development today. we're going to pass that along to you, next.

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bottles filled with liquid. the suspect, take a good long look. authorities are investigating the bombings now as hate crimes. if that's the case, all new yorkers should be outraged. >> all the family will get hurt so we have to be shoulder to shoulder, we have to protect our country. we have to protect our society. >> i'm going to bring in jim. how does that change the investigation going forward? >> it changes, brooke, who the investigators will look at. they are going to look at people who might have been verbally making hateful statements, could

be fringe groups but also revenge modes and it remains to be seen whether the philly is tied to the religious committee, if he has dealings with him, and is it complete, he's a stranger and it's more towards complete hate. >> what about the fact, though, that he appears to be targeting hindus, muslims? he appears to be targeting hispanics as well. what do you make of that? is he just lumping it all together? all of these ethnicities? >> well, the new york latino term was ran by an immigrant who was a muslim. that's telling of this guy's anger and determination.

he went inside the deli and threw the bomb behind the counter. now, that's a man who is determined to hurt or kill people. you can see at the front door of these places. >> i was about to interject, from what i've read, it doesn't appear to be very sophisticated and they are not doing much damage, thank goodness. >> right. exactly. unsophisticated and planning, but very determined to cause injury and death. if they catch the guy, they have the suspect. if i was a sentencing judge on either one of those cases, i'll be throwing the library at these people for trying to burn these people out of their homes and churches. >> do you think this case will move pretty quickly?

>> yes, i do. a lot of public support, the media putting out the videos in both cases, the communities behind law enforcement. that's the formula for success. if it's not the person questioning, they are going to wrap it up pretty quick and that dark night is going to come to an end. >> sure. here's hoping that they have caught the guy. jim, thank you. >> thanks, brooke. is he a senator, a republican, and he is from iowa. even though chuck grassley may have a lot of pull in his state, he's not backing a candidate. is he praising one contender. will he make news here on my show? senator, we're going to ask him, live, next. to climb. ♪ dreams to be realized.

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joining me now live from the biggest caucus location tonight, cedar falls, iowa, is senator chuck grassley. six terms in the senate. good to have you on.

let me just see if i have this right. october 13th you said you might endorse a candidate before the caucuses. october 19th you said you wouldn't make an endorsement. next day you said you might change your mind. you kind of sound like an iowa voter. >> well, listen, it's a fact that i'm announcing right now that i'm not going back anybody. and the reason i'm not going to do that is i find each of the candidates -- some of them have some difference of opinion with me but for the most part i think we have a strong field and any one of them can beat barack obama and i want the process to work its way through and i want to see my job denied as an encouraging the party as i go around to the different caucuses and secondly i want to make sure that we're able to co-he less sometime this summer.

>> let me press that on you. you're not endorsing anyone. is it because it's not that appealing or any of those three could elect barack obama? >>. >> i want to make sure that the process works out. and move on through the process, one of those will be the next president of the united states. >> senator, i know even though you're not making an official announcement, you have said nice things about rick santorum. he's a tough fighter, not afraid to take on tough issues who r would a strong showing on behalf of santorum cause additional chaos down the road? >> no. i think you're going to have two

or three people and maybe into nevada and not through the whole primary system. i think a long time before that we're going to have a ticket but and there are going to be differences that will make one or two of these that are going to be able to make this a contest for the primaries coming up yet. >> iowa, less known and is there anyone out there that you want to see eliminated by caucus-goers tonight? >> i think even if i wanted to see somebody eliminated, i obviously wouldn't say that. >> come on. it's just us talking. >> okay. but i think you've got to look at it from a practical standpoint. as long as you have these free

debates and people get free tv, they are not anxious with all of the work that they are going to call it quits because they come in fifth or sixth in eye way. >> okay. but before i let you go, senator grassley, i'm going to give you one more chance to make news, make an endorsement. how about mitt romney, senator? >> listen, yoush not going to do that to me. i've been in politics a long time but i can say this. you have a right to do it. i appreciate you trying to feel me out. i know you have a responsibility to do that but i want you to know that i'm going to be satisfied with the outcome of the iowa caucus and i think one of these people that are going to be in the top three or four, one of them is going to defeat barack obama. >> thank you, senator. if mitt romney wins tonight, it's a pretty big deal because his campaign didn't even consider iowa a winnable state. the situation has changed a little bit. it's because of his extra

careful strategy to avoid the mistakes he made four years ago. we'll take you inside his game plan next. but, first, take a listen. >> he's on track in his first term and his only term to have amast public debt that is going to be almost as much as all of the presidents combined. he went on the record shortly after being inaugurated and said if he's not able to opportunity around the economy in two years, he would be looking at a one-term election. he's out. fat you eat. let's fight fat with alli. ♪

rick santorum has done it. giving live interviews in these final hours before voting tonight. but the one face that you have not seen a lot of is the front-runner mitt romney. with moire, here is joe johns. >> reporter: on the final day of campaigning, energy is everything in iowa. you watch for a loud applause, size of crowds, signs of enthusiasm. the romney campaign he might confidence but said that they never planned to win i'd wa

which will be the excuse if they don't. >> i sense a feeling, a momentum or whatever it is you want to call it around mitt and i think people are starting to figure out that this is the guy that is going to beat barack obama. >> in davenport, the cautious candidate didn't stray from his cautious ways. romney was playing it safe. speaking of his wife, he might as well have been talking about his self lately. >> she was marvelous. they asked her tough questions and she didn't what she wasn't supposed to do. she didn't answer. >> empty space in the room. >> get out and vote. >> usually people in advance get paid to make people like romney it's easier to pack in the people, making it look more well attended. maybe it was a mix-up, though it was a day four years ago with

mitt romney heading into the caucus, facing a social conservative mike huckabee. huckabee would win and romney would not recover. this campaign would rather not see history repeating itself with the current conservative, rick santorum. when the romney road show got to debuke, he was playing it safe. >> romney said nothing about the laws. it was another joke about his wife ann. >> i'm standing here, she's standing there, and suddenly her half of the stage collapsed in deduke, and she went down on the ground and landed on her backside and a little later she said i fell on da butt in debuke. >> one thing for certain, a winner in this crowded field

will be crowned winner tuesday night. neither mitt romney nor any other candidate will have achieved more than 30% of the vote. in other words, 70% will have voted against the winner for only the second time ever in the republican caucuses. most likely leaving no one republican candidate the clear national front-runner. joe johns, cnn, marion iowa. coming up next, we'll speak live with wolf blitzer and we'll get a sneak peak of the coverage which achieves amazing technology and a couple of surprises. hey, wolf. be right back. you'll save 100 calories a day. that could help you lose up to 10 pounds in a year. and now get even more with splenda® essentials, the only line of sweeteners with a small boost of fiber, or antioxidants, or b vitamins in every packet. just another reason why you get more...

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time now for the help desk. joining me this hour is a financial planner and the president of objective advice and gail cunningham with the national foundation for credit counseling. thank you both for being here. gail, your question comes from jeff in virginia. jeff writes, my wife and i are both 57 working with a combined income of $270,000. we have 800,000 in a 401(k) accounts but we owe 400,000 on a $750,000 home. should we pay off the house with our 401(k) money when we retire

or continue making the $3,000 a month payment? >> this is a common question but i don't want them to beat themselves up over that. they are actually in good shape. i would recommend that they set their money aside and draw it down as they need it. and here's why. if they were to ask their friends and neighbors, if you needed to tap the equity in your home, would that be an easy thing to do? well, with the number of homes under water today, you have to sell your home to get your own money back. and you don't want to be put in that position. so i would say, keep the money set aside, dedicate it, earmark it for your mortgage payment and you'll be fine. >> and gary your question comes from hong in nebraska. i have contributed the maximum amount to my 01 k over the last ten years. knowing that my tax bracket will be higher in the future, should i invest the rest in

ahere-yielding taxable account? >> if that's what you think, the value of the deduction will be more valuable in the future. well, if you are in a really low tax bracket presently, what you can do is see if the roth 401(k) is available. a roth 401(k) is not deductible but grows tax free for the rest of your life. >> and we always here about roth's i.r.a.s but you're talk ug about a 401(k). >> exactly. that's absolutely essential to get the employer match no matter what you do.

so 12 minutes away from this man and what do you have coming snup. >> the situation room at the cnn election center, 4:00 to 6:00, i take a break from 6:00 to 7:00, and then starting at 7:00, we have a lot of fancy things coming up. some surprises. i told you, you tweet it and people have to watch. because right at the top of 7:00 we have new stuff, some new toys we're going to be showing off. it's going to be good. >> you did your 5 mile run. >> i run five miles every morning on a treadmill. >> i was on the treadmill i did 4. >> because if i don't, late afternoon i don't have the energy. >> gets the brain going. >> i really need to do it, yeah. >> who else do you have coming up? >> we have all of our reporters. we also have a lot of cameras.

you're going to be interested in this. at the caucus locations. we're going to see democracy unfold. we're going to show what people do at a republican caucus which is very different than a than a caucus. >> excellent. thanks for stopping by and now, this. you heard we're a bunch of knee jerk conservative reactionaries. i guess that's why we're democratic by the last six patrol elections. you you like me now? >> since all eyes are on iowa tonight, this guy getting creative to bust stereotypes. forget the candidates, the pundits. what are the people of iowa saying? lisa joining us again today. she has learned a lot. but first, newt gingrich taking on mitt romney and some last minute pitches by the kapds. >> how many of you are fed up with the negative ads and

mailings and negative -- and i would simply ask you to go to the caucus tonight and say to your friends and neighbors, that iowa has a remarkable opportunity to say no to every candidate who's been running negative ads. and if you were to do that, you would be able to change the entire culture of campaigning in america. you know, as long as the consultants believe the negative attack ads work no matter how dishonest and as long as they believe they can raise money for millionaires for attack ads, we're going to remain sick. >> economic liberty is very important and you come to the conclusion it is important because individual liberty is important. in our founding jefferson state very clearly our lives and lives are gifts from god and theref e

therefore, your income, the fruits of your labor, should be yours and not the government's to spend. >> i would make the argument there's a lot of people in america today and unfortunately, some in the white house, who don't believe that anymore. who don't believe that america is a great country because we are great, because we have great people who build great things from the bottom up, but that america could be better if we built things from the top down. that may be the way other countries have done it. it is, but a lot of people in this country left those countries because like my grandfather, they wanted a country that believed in him. okay... is this where we're at now, we just eat whatever tastes good? like these sweet honey clusters... actually there's a half a day's worth of fiber in every ... why stop at cereal? bring on the pork chops and the hot fudge. fantastic. are you done sweetie? yea [ male announcer ] fiber beyond recognition. fiber one. hey, i love your cereal there--

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little more on the iowa caucuses now. a lot of folks seem to have a certain picture of iowa. i won't spell it out, but it may be at odds with reality. >> you heard we're a bunch of knee jerk conservative reactionaries, i guess that's why -- the last six presidential elections. how you like me now? does your state legalize gay marriage before us? probably not. the first woman in america to become a lawyer was in iowa in 1869. you think we're -- what about formers, you say. you think farmers are hill billies? sit down. one iowa farmer feeds 155

million people. >> i want to bring in lisa, once again, good enough to join us from des moines. you're there. we wanted to talk to you because lisa d., you have been talking to the people. what do they think? >> i am so excited to talk about this. i feel like you guys are xwood to get into this. everyone from the man who parks the cars at my hotel, his name is joe, he was telling me yesterday he's workinging two jobs. he's trying to take care of his 14-year-old granddaughter and i said, are you going to caucus, i've been on -- i'm so disgusted with politicians that i don't think i can go. i was in that great video. everyone thinks about farmers. i talked to two, a woman and her

husband. sharon, i'm sorry, sherrill and randy shultis. they are worried because their kids are moving out of state. they're worried there's going to be no one to take over their farm. just last month, their daughter said, i think i do want to take over the farm, so now, they're worried, am i going to have the money to do it. that couple, the dad was for mitt romney. the mom was choosing between romney and santorum. i met them at a romney event. she was dying just to get a question in. if she had been able to speak to romney, i think he would have earned her vote. but the way the event worked, actually, the media crushed forward. almost no organization and i don't think the former governor really talked to many caucusgoers at all. it seemed he really only talked to the media, so the farmer's wife walked away disappointed

and he may have lost her vote. >> she was at the caucus event, a couple candidates were there and she was saying a lot of young people are engaged and for the first time, will be caucusing tonight. we saw the last general election. there was a lot of young people very invigorate d by politics. t do you feel they're on the ground at all in iowa? >> when i talk to young people, i hear the same thing. i hear that ron paul momentum. among young people who are republican, but i think we're so focused on the republican race, that i have to say, i probably talked to more people who say they are for barack obama than any republican candidate, but among young republicans, i would say that ron paul is the one that is winning their imagination and i guess another story about an iowan i met, a waitress that i met from bosnia, she escaped bosnia when she was

a child. they became refugees and where did they go? to iowa. and one of our friends at the table joked, oh, yeah, you wanted to get away from every border you could and so you went to the middle of the country. that's right, we did. she's so happy here. really an amazing place. i think this is not a state that's full li understood an there's a lot of evangelicals here, but the ones i talked to, when they say evangelical, they mean something different than what the outsiders thinking. >> it's so nice to hear all these different people you're talking to. follow lisa, she's got her podcast, thank you very much. before we go to "the situation room," let's get a quick check on the boards and you can see huge rally. the dow up 174