of "reliable sources." i'm howard kurtz. join us again next sunday morning, 11:00 a.m. eastern for another critical look at the media. "state of the union with candy crowley" begins right now. nevada delivers for romney while early signs of a recovering economy suggest republicans may have to tune up their fall pitch to unseat the president. today, 2012 politics from the stateside with two leading governors, virginia republican bob mcdonnell and maryland democrat martin o'malley. then, if they had to, could core conservatives learn to love mitt? we ask the president of the family research council, tony perkins, and dick armey. the economy and the election. and then, israel, iran and

the u.s. with mike rogers. i'm candy crowley. and this is "state of the union." a gallup/"usa today" poll of 12 key swing states shows president obama beating every republican comer except one, mitt romney. after months of pounding by republican rivals and the president's re-election team, romney is up by a point over the president, a statistical dead heat. 35% of swing state republicans say they're extremely enthusiastic to vote this year. that's compared to 23% of democrats. 20% of independents. that's called an enthusiasm gap. also, troublesome for the president's prospects, 4 of the 12 swing states have jobless rates over 9% and four are in the top ten for highest foreclosure rates. joining, bob mcdonnell and his counterpart at the democratic governors association, martin o'malley. thank you both for joining us. before we get to the swing states -- and i'll start with

you, governor o'malley -- do you think -- put on your analyst's hat now -- is the republican nomination race over in all but the gathering of delegates with mitt romney's big win last night? >> i'm not sure that it is all over. i think what people are still looking for within the republican party and certainly independents is whether any of these candidates actually have a credible plan for creating jobs at a faster rate than our economy. it's now starting to create jobs. and that's something that we have yet to see even with all of the intrigue and the ups and downs of this race. so i think this race still has a ways to go. clearly, former governor romney had some momentum, and now people will ask, well, when he was governor, why did his state rank 47th in job creation if he has such great ideas for creating jobs? so i think people are still shopping. >> and you guys are pretty grateful to still have newt gingrich kind of doing your advance work for you. but let me bring in governor mcdonnell here and ask you -- and we should say, you are a mitt romney backer. but as you look --

>> yes. >> -- at this race, do you see a way that he could lose it, or is it his to lose? >> well, good morning, candy, and good morning, martin. i think romney's got tremendous momentum. now he's won 3 out of the 5, tied the other one, one in the northeast, the southeast, the rocky mountain states, and he's winning across every spectrum of the republican race, moderate, very conservative, evangelical, tea party, and just, you know, regular folks. so i think he's on a roll. there's 17 primaries and caucuses in the next 30 days. and the map is lining up very well for mitt romney because here's the bottom line. everybody knows that he's got the best chance to beat president obama. you said at the top of the show that it's neck and neck between the two. the president knows it. most people know it. and we want to win. and so i think he'll be the nominee. the only question is when. >> and the poll was about swing states. and it did show that it's really a dead heat in the states that really decide the election.

governor o'malley, to you, when you look at this at the swing state picture, what turns this around for the president? because these are must-wins for either candidates. but what turns it around for him? >> i think really there's one central issue, and that is the economy. and i think the best two indicators of whether or not the economy's becoming better after the bush recession or whether it's getting worse is the job creation numbers. 23 months in a row now of positive job creation. we haven't done that as a country since 2005. >> but remember, 4 of these 12 swing states have unemployment rates over 9%. and they vote state by state. >> which makes this issue even more acute and even higher on the radar screen that people there. the second thing -- and you mentioned this in your piece -- is the foreclosure rates in all of those states. >> 4 in 10 of these states. >> 4 out of 10. and yet, we have now driven, because of president obama's choices and policies, we've driven foreclosures down to their lowest rate in 49 months.

foreclosures are now lower than they were before. what is mitt romney's response to foreclosures? let it bottom out. do nothing. i don't think that's going to be an alternative that people in any states really think is a responsible one for home ownership. >> governor mcdonnell, i'll give you a chance to respond to that, but i also want you to address something that democrats are bringing up. and that is, they say sure, at this moment, there is what looks like a statistical dead heat in the swing states. if you look at the last two races, meaning florida and nevada, they note that the number of people participating, number of republicans participating in these contests, is down. and they say that that means that republicans aren't all that enthusiastic about any of these guys and that that does not bode well for you this fall. >> well, candy, i disagree. you gave at the top of the show the difference in the enthusiasm gap between republicans and democrats by about 12 points in terms of their interest in this race. this race is coming down to three things. it's leadership. it's jobs.

and it's the national debt and deficit. and on all of those, president obama has failed. he spends most of his time blaming republicans and the tea party and wall street for all the problems in the country and not taking responsibility. he's completely failed to get the national debt and deficit under control. he's contributed nearly $5 trillion to the national debt with no plan to get out of it. and despite governor o'malley's stats, the bottom line is, we've been over 8% unemployment for virtually his entire presidency. 36 months. this is a president who said pass my big stimulus spending bill, and we won't be over 8%. well, we haven't been under 8% in all of that time. he got no budget done when he had his own party in control. so it's been a complete failure of leadership. he cannot run on his record. he's had no plan for jobs or energy that he's got passed. so he's got a tough record. look, i'm glad the economy's starting to recover, but i think it's because of what republican governors are doing in their states, not because of the president.

>> well, that's very interesting. in fact, i was going to ask governor mcdonnell, candy, if his state is now creating jobs again, or is virginia still losing jobs as you were in the recession? and that's a rhetorical question, governor. your state is now creating jobs. my state is create be jobs. throughout our country, candy, we are now creating jobs again. now, we could create jobs faster, governor, if your party were not captive of the right-wing tea party folks in congress who want to keep anything from happening. but facts are stubborn things. we've now gone 23 months in a row of positive job growth. we've driven foreclosures down to their lowest rate in 49 months. and unemployment has now been dri dri driven down to its lowest rate in three years. it's all about creating jobs and bringing people together to do that. >> governor mcdonnell, i want to ask you -- go ahead. >> well, let me just respond to my friend, martin. by the way, we get along. we do a lot together in the washington area, but i just flat disagree with him. 11 out of the top 15 states in

america that are ranked by cnbc and top places to do business are republican states. 7 out of the ten states that have had the biggest drop in unemployment are states run by republican governors. and he and i disagree. his plan in maryland is to increase taxes on income, on gas, on cigars and everything else. but the bottom line is, i'll take our record in virginia of creating jobs. we're at a 6.2% unemployment. maryland's at 6.9 -- >> actually, 6.7%. >> well, okay. and we're fluctuating. >> we're creating jobs 2 1/2 times the rate virginia is, candy. >> well, the point is -- >> let me move you on to a slightly different subject because i'm going to -- you all are going to talk through this, and i won't be able to get this in. this week what we've seen is some real outrage within the catholic community about the president's decision to require catholic entities, charities, churches and schools to provide

contraception and other things within their health insurance plans. my question to you in the final 90 seconds we have, has president obama damaged the catholic vote as far as democrats are concerned? and you, as i understand it, are catholic. >> i am catholic. and i think, candy, there's been a little bit too much hyperventilating over this issue. it's one of those issues that they want to use -- >> it came from catholics themselves in the hierarchy. >> some. and some of those members in the hierarchy are also republicans. if you look at 28 states, candy, this is not about abortion. it's about covering contraception as part of the health care coverage, mandatory, basic coverage. 28 states already require this. and in europe -- >> but you're not thinking about the state, the federal government, telling a religion what it must cover in a health care policy. >> well, there is an exemption for the -- for churches themselves. the exemption does not necessarily extend to institutions like hospitals or

universities that employ people of all faiths. but these same rules apply in countries like italy which have overwhelming numbers of catholics. and yet we did not see the reaction in those countries to these sorts of things. >> and i'm going to give the last word to you, governor mcdonnell. is there an opening for republicans to seize in the catholic vote sector, which is very large, as you know, in some very important states. ohio, pennsylvania, et cetera. >> absolutely. as a pro-life catholic, i think the answer is yes. besides the health care bill being unconstitutional and a great expansion of federal government, i think if it does not respect people's individual religious reviews and makes groups or individuals do things that are contrary to their deeply held beliefs, there's going to be a visceral negative reaction. and i think the catholic voters will look very favorably upon mitt romney this year. >> governor mcdonnell, governor o'malley, as always, i have many more questions to ask you, so you have to come back. thank you so much for joining me. >> okay.

thank you. up next, will the republican base ever fall in love with mitt romney? we'll get insight from two conservative leaders. and later, signs of strength and hints of weakness in the economy. we'll ask our expert panel to make sense of it. [ beep ] [ mom ] scooter? the progresso chicken noodle you made is so good. it's got tender white meat chicken. the way i always made it for you. one more thing.... those pj's you like, i bought you five new pairs. love you. did you see the hockey game last night? [ male announcer ] progresso. you gotta taste this soup.

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joining me to talk about the current gop field, freedom works chairman and former house majority leader dick armey and family research council president tony perkins. gentlemen, thank you so much to both of you for being here. i wanted to give our listeners a look at what's gone on in some of the exit polls and, in fact, with nevada, it was entrance polls. but nonetheless, what's happened to mitt romney among the conservative voters. in south carolina, he only got 19% of those who self-identified as very conservative. but by the time we got to nevada, 49% of very conservative self-identified voters said they supported mitt romney, the highest of any of those in the race. if you look at strong tea party supporters, south carolina, mitt romney got 21% of the strong tea party support. but by the time we got to nevada, it was 39%. he bested everybody in the field.

so my first question as mitt romney's support among tea party conservatives, among the very conservative, seems to be growing. and certainly is besting others in the race. could you -- and let me start with you, congressman armey, could you see your way clear to support a mitt romney nomination? >> well, the first thing i'd point out is south carolina was an aberration because newt gingrich had what is likely to be in final analysis his best moment in south carolina. now, the fact of the matter is we know we're not going to get a -- >> i'm sorry, let me just interrupt you right there. do you think that newt gingrich is done in terms of the nomination, getting it? >> i don't think newt will be able to replicate that magic moment he had in south carolina. he had a confluence of circumstances that came, and he had just that one masterful moment where he transformed himself from perpetrator to victim, attacked the media

which, candy, as you know, is always popular with our base and just sort of took that momentary surge. but i think he's played that string out. now, in the meantime, mitt continues to work along. the governor continues to work along at a steady pace. and we are left with a dilemma that we're not going to get a reliable small-government conservative out of this nominating process. that's why we've focused our attention on the house and senate. our notion is, we will get the legislative initiative coming out of a conservative-dominated house and senate. we'll build a legislative wall. we'll either be walling a republican president in or walling a democrat president out. but we will -- our aim is to make the legislative initiative come from the house and the senate, not wait upon the white house. >> tony, i'm going to get you, i promise, in a second. but just quickly, congressman

armey, could you support mitt romney? could you work for mitt romney in whatever way you could be helpful? >> if he gets the nomination. remember this. whoever is in the white house always is going to be drawn to his base. we would rather have a republican president that's not fully the guy we adore wanting our affections than a democrat president who despises us and covets the affections of our mortal enemies on public policy. so clearly it's in the best interests of our policy objectives to support whatever republican president might want to take the office and then seek our respect and admiration. >> tony, you are sort of the leader in the group of conservative evangelicals and conservative christians who met in texas and came out and said rick santorum is our guy. it looks grim for rick santorum. he's still in the race. all things can happen, as we know. all things are possible. but if he does not win, will you

full-heartedly support a mitt romney nomination? >> well, candy, first, that meeting in houston, i was a spokesman for the group, i have not endorsed -- our organization does not endorse presidential candidates. but having said that -- >> i'm sorry, didn't you come out and say rick -- that group say we like rick santorum? >> the group did. and i was the spokesman for that group. i have not personally endorsed. but 75% of those said that they preferred rick santorum as their candidate because of his principled stands. and rasmussen poll yesterday actually showed him as the one candidate in their daily tracking that could beat obama. and i think that's the concern is that once we get into the primary, who can -- who's going to have that baggage? we're not looking for a candidate that can walk on water. we're looking for a candidate who doesn't sink you should the weight of their own baggage, both past and present political

conditions. and the concern is that there's not going to be that enthusiasm among the base to top president obama in the presidential race. >> your base, what i would consider folks that think similarly to you, christian conservative base of the party, might sit home if it were mitt romney? >> well, no, not necessarily. i mean, there's a very strong overlap between the tea party and evangelical voters. just what dick was talking about, the focus is on the house and senate and expanding the conservative majorities in congress so that whether you have a republican or democrat, the policy initiatives are either going to be killed coming from the white house or the white house is going to be boxed in to do the right thing. so that's an agreement we have there. i think, look. the policies of this administration, and you talked about it earlier with the two governors, governor mcdonnell pointed this out -- i disagree with him. he's a good friend, but i disagree that romney has captured the evangelical support, the conservative support. we see they're warming to him,

but he still has a long way to go. but when it comes down to it, the social conservative voters, they know what this president has done. what he did this week with forcing this issue of contraception, a violation of the tenants of the faith of catholics in particular, but evangelicals as well is sending a strong message. and wasn't an isolated incident. we've had a series of these types of decisions by this administration. you have to have strong enthusiasm, and that's what's going to be required. i think mitt is warming to it. he's made statements about religious freedom. i think he can get there, but we're still a ways away from that point. i think it may be august before this is a done deal. we go all the way to the convention before we have solid support behind a nominee. >> evangelical support behind a nominee. is that what you're talking about or just in general? >> yeah, i think he's got the party established. again, there's a strong overlap between tea party and evangelical voters.

>> right. i want to play both of you something that newt gingrich said last night in the news conference he held after the results were in in nevada. >> if you can't tell the truth as a candidate for president, how can the country possibly expect you to lead as president? and i frankly was stunned. i make no bones about this. in the second florida debate, i had nothing to say because i had never before seen a before who i thought of as a serious candidate for president be that fundamentally dishonest. and it was blatant, and it was deliberate, and he knew he was doing it. >> "he" being mitt romney. congressman armey, i know the party line, oh, this kind of primary, no matter how long ago, just strengthens us. but i cannot believe that you believe that this sort of rhetoric aimed at mitt romney is at all helpful for you all in the fall. >> i don't think it's helpful even to newt. i feel bad for him. i think he's digressed into a state of taking a second-rate campaign and turning it into a

first-rate vendetta. and i think he's putting himself out of the game because he can't get over his obsessing about his own hurt feelings over the campaign in iowa. he needs to get beyond that and get to the nation's people's business if he expects to have any chance whatsoever. i thought that last night was really sad for him. and quite frankly, again, so much of newt's whole life is overstated. he overstates the case in such a hyperbolic fashion, it just looks vindictive. >> uh-huh. we should also say that you and newt gingrich have a bit of a history. you're not a total fan of his. let me move the question to phony. tony. is that sort of red rick helpful to you all in the fall? obviously congressman armey thinks it's not and it's not helping gingrich. >> there's a lot of talk, oh, the republicans are beating each other up in the primary. it's going to hurt us. look, the giants and the patriots are playing together,

two very good teams. six months ago, they probably would not have been prepared to play in this game. they've had injuries along the way. they've had setbacks. but they've built on their weaknesses, and they've built stronger -- built on their strengths. i think that's what's happening here. i think these things are being exposed on the candidates are going to be exposed in the general election. so they might as well come out now. they might as well figure out how to deal with them and build on them. it is not very helpful when it digresses into personal attacks which we have seen some of. but that's the nature of politics. it's been that way. it will continue to be that way. >> okay. and congressman armey, i am totally out of time, but i want to make sure i give you a chance. was i correct in the way i described your relationship with newt gingrich? because i sort of said it, but i wanted to make sure. you're not close friends, let's put it that way. >> well, we worked well during the time we worked together. i'm sure we both had disappointments in one another. but i think right now the

question is, is newt going to have an effective campaign that presents the best of his ideas for america, or ise just going to have a constant pattern of attacking romney? >> thank you so much, dick armey, we appreciate it. tony perkins, thank you both for joining us this morning. coming up, we make sense of some of the week's big economic numbers. and later in honor of super bowl sunday, we found a common thread between the gridiron and the campaign trail.

the unemployment rate last month was the lowest it's been since february 2009. and friday the dow jones industrial averages hit their highest levels since may 2008. as the economy goes, so goes the president's re-election chances, so high fives all around? not so much. >> these numbers will go up and down in the coming months. and there's still far too many americans who need a job or need a job that pays better than the one they have now. >> the president did pronounce

the economy stronger, but despite the best monthly news in years on wall street and main street, nobody seems to trust its staying power. in part because of things like this. the nonpartisan congressional budget office projected in a report released this week that the unemployment rate will go back up to 8.9% in the final months of this year and hit 9.2% by the end of next year. and the fed chairman, ben bernanke, reminded congress thursday, the u.s. economy does not operate in a vacuum. >> risks remain that developments in europe or elsewhere may unfold favorably and could worsen economic prospects here at home. up next, politics and the economy. every time of day. outdoors, or in. transitions® lenses automatically filter just the right amount of light. so you see everything the way it is meant to be seen. maybe even a little better.

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98% saw improved skin. does your makeup do that? neutrogena® cosmetics. have more fiber than other leading brands. they're the better way to enjoy your fiber. here to make sense of some big economic figures, alice rivlin from the clinton administration, douglas holtz aiken who was on george w.'s panel. i'm completely confused by this week because friday it's like the best, you know, unemployment figures we've seen in three years. the dow industrials go crazy. and the cbo earlier in the week said, you know, the debt outlook is horrible. the deficit's horrible.

and by the way, unemployment's going back up. so are we happy or are we worried? >> i think it was basically a good-newsweek. the unemployment figures and the new jobs in the friday report were good news. they aren't definitive. it was one month, but it was a good strong month and indication that the economy is taking hold. if it lasts, we'll have what the best thing that anybody is able to predict is a good slow recovery with gradual reduction in the unemployment rate from what is admittedly a very high level. >> but, you know, the cbo said 9.3 or something next year which i think is craziness. >> remember, the cbo, its job is to define the dark cloud for every silver lining. it did that, but the reason it did that, all kidding aside, the cbo has to assume that they have

to assume an enormous tax increase next year and we have to assume we have bad economic growth, and that gets you high unemployment. strip that out, one month's good news in the labor market, but the truth is the economy is not very strong and we have a long way to go. >> politically the reason we heard the president go, well, these numbers are going to go up and down is to kind of inoculate himself from the next month or the month after. >> because there has been more than one good month. there have been several months of good unemployment years and private sector job growth was 2.1 million which is the best in -- since i think '05. so there's a general trajectory that is more positive. the trajectory is the key politically. i think almost all political strategists agree that kind of direction matters more than level. if it continues to improve, that's obviously good news for the president. and cbo is right, and we see a turnaround toward the end of the year with it going back up. that would be problem attic. i would point out that most political signs we are in the

key period now. that the second quarter of the election year is when voters really take that snapshot. and it is positive for the president that he is seeing improvement at this moment. >> i would never disagree with a political expert, but a couple things. unemployment will go up before it comes down in a permanent way. there are a lot of discouraged workers out there. 3 or 4 million. and that will be confusing to people. good news will be bad news. on the ground, it's not going to feel that great. right now the numbers look better. that's fine. but until we see steady job growth, that's even this rapid or more, and employment increases that are matched by wage increases, you're not going to see the incomes for peechl to feel good. if we start doing happy talk in washington when it's not that great on the ground. >> that's a huge disconnect. >> nobody's doing happy talk, not even the president. we have to -- >> if the economy were stronger. >> we have to recognize that the economy is stronger. that's what he has said. and it's shown it's stronger for the last several months. and the cbo was actually not making a new forecast. it was telling us what we

already know. if you raise taxes drastically at the end of the year, letting the bush tax cuts all expire, and if you cut spending drastically next year with the sequester, then it's not good news for the economy. but nobody wants that to happen. >> that is not really on the table. the debate will be about at the end of the year whether to extend the bush tax cuts or the top 2%. they have to expect that the sunset for the entire population which is really neither side is a very unlikely outcome. >> in fact, the cbo said lisp, it will reduce economic activity, and it will increase unemployment if you let those tax cuts expire. >> it's an extraordinarily bad idea. and there's -- the thing of it is -- for everybody. >> but it's across the board. >> it's going to be the biggest political risk we face which is post-election, we have a lame duck, they're never very organize. it will look like a rugby scrum.

and we have the sequester and the tax cuts on the table. >> let me ask you to hold fire because we're going to come back. up next, more with our economic roundtable. and later, the chairman of the house intelligence consider joins us for a frank discussion. americans believe they should be in charge of their own future. how they'll live tomorrow.

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we are back with alice rivlin, douglas holtz-aiken and ronald brownstein. i want to ask you all, when you look at this year, where is the point or what could you see that would make you think, the

recovery's for real? >> i would like to see strong employment growth continue, gdp growth continue, but most of all, i would like to see the republican and the democrats in the congress get together with the president and solve the long-run debt problem. gridlock is the greatest threat, much greater than anything else that could happen to our economy. >> because it undermines consumer confidence, basically. >> well, more than that, if we do nothing, as we said in the last segment, the default position is that we have a big tax increase and a big mindless spending cut. and that would be bad for the economy. we have to avoid that. >> i'd look at the housing market. and if there's one thing that says success, it says builders build houses. and we get up to something like 900,000 housing starts. they don't do that unless there are customers. and we don't get that kind of customer base unless income is growing and employment is

growing. when that turns around. >> there's a lot of empty houses out there. >> to me, building on that, i think both economically and politically for me, it's the same measure. consumer confidence and in particular the share of americans who think the economy will be better a year from now than it is today. politically, we know that kind of projections about the future are probably more important to help people vote than their assessments at the present and also the willingness to invest is tied to the belief that there are better time as head. part of obama's problem in 2012 is that the core who he needs to turn out in 2012 have been among the hardest hit, african-americans and hispanics. we are beginning to see that change. there are now 1.6 million more hispanics working. beginning to see improvement in those sectors that he really needs to see at the ballot box in 2012. >> just to sort of p.s. on that, i talked to somebody very high up in the administration who said we need to convince the guy

who doesn't have a job that he's going to get one soon. that's their plan. >> that's hard if it's -- you know, he's the sitting president, so it's ultimately a referendum which is ultimately a ba backward-looking event. they've got to get them looking forward. that's tough. >> i've got to ask you to flip the coin here and tell me what would happen that you would think -- oy. >> there are lots of risks. europe could blow up, although it looks better at the moment. we could have some other catastrophe like the japanese tsunami. but i think the biggest threat to this economy is not economic, it's political. it's gridlock. it is the government not working. and at the moment, the government is not working. the two parties are unable to agree on anything. and that's not necessarily going to change after the election. we have to have a change of heart that says we have to come together to solve some of these problems. >> i agree with apolice on the list of risks, europe, gasoline, iran, political risks. but you'll know we're in trouble

when you start seeing new claims for unemployment insurance rise instead of going down. we've seen steady improvement in that. if people start coming out of their jobs again, we're in trouble. >> europe and iran, the big threat. one thing the white house worries about, job growth has been faster than predicted by the level of gdp growth. they worry that that will equalize and slow down in 2012. >> thank you all so much. up next, president obama says all options are on the table when it comes to iran. a look at the future of unsteady relations with iran with house intelligence committee chairman mike rogers. my wife and i have three wonderful children and they make my life just perfect. we were having too much fun, we weren't thinking about a will at that time. we were in denial. that's right. [ laughter ] we like our freedoms, but at the same time we have responsibilities to the kids and ourselves. we're the vargos and we created our wills on legalzoom. finally. [ laughter ] [ shapiro ] we created legalzoom to help you take care of the ones you love. go to legalzoom.com today and complete your will in minutes.

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joining me now, house intelligence committee chairman mike rogers. thank you, mr. chairman, for coming in. >> thanks for having me. >> we had this interesting thing happen this week where a columnist, let it be known that leon panetta, defense secretary, believes that israel is going to bomb iran because of its continuing development, we believe, of a nuclear weapon. within the next three months or so. it wasn't a direct quote. leon panetta, the defense secretary, won't actually comment on it directly, but you know how this town works. things are leaked for a reason. what reason was this leaked for? >> well, i'm not so sure it was leaked for a reason. there is an interesting series of events happening. israel has been a little bit distrustful of the united states. and i think that's caused a

little bit of friction. we normally work so well together about maybe this is not the right time for you to launch an attack. but they have a red line. israel has a red line. and they have been signaling to the united states for some time that they will not allow iran to cross that red line, and that's in that pursuit of nuclear weapons. and i think what you see now is more of a reflection of a little bit of frustration on both sides of this equation. israel's holding back a little bui bit. the united states, they're not exactly sure what they're going to do. we need to fix it now. >> so the feeling out of each other publicly? >> well, unfortunately, i think yes. but you have to remember, all of the series of events that's happened has put a little bit of uncertainty in our relationship between israel and the united states. and i'm not talking this is all blown up and we're not cooperating. that is not what i'm talking about. but when you're talking about something as serious as taking military action against iran's nuclear weapon program, that's a whole new ball game. and so i think they think we're

getting back boxed in a corner. we have egypt on our southern border. we used to not have to worry about it, and now we have to worry about it. we have iran developing nuclear weapons. we have problems, and they're not getting great signals from the united states right now. we need to put that back together in a hurry. >> how close is israel to that red line, do you think? >> i think it's close. and you have to remember, the iranians moving their enrichment facility has a purpose. they know that that's a difficult military target to strike. so all of that's happening all at the same time. and all the signals that iran are getting unfortunately are just not the right signals. and i think that's why israel's a little frustrated. the pullout of iraq. the announced time line for increased pullout by a year in afghanistan. the changing fundamentally of our doctrine militarily has, i think, rattled the cage a little bit. so some of this is out of frustration. and again, my argument is, this is too important for us not to

get this right. if israel does a unilateral strike, this could be a real problem for the national security interests of the united states. >> lights the middle east on fire, basically. >> absolutely. >> the campaign trail and the question to newt gingrich, if israel came to you and you were president and they said we're going to bomb iran, what would you do? >> i would say if you believe the survival of your country is at stake, what is it we can do to help you. >> right? wrong? >> well, one thing that's important to understand, we have a defense pact with israel. so if they are attacked, the united states is obligated to help defend them. >> sort of depends on what your definition is of "attacked" is. >> if iran launches missiles or hezbollah tries to come over the border in a military action -- >> right now we're talking about something that's going on in iran, not an overattack on israel, in which case if israel comes to this administration and

says we're going to do this, if, in fact, they would give us a heads up, what is the appropriate u.s. response? don't do it? you need to think about this? or okay, we're behind you? >> well, can i back up for one second? >> sure. >> so clearly they're feeling pressure. is feeling pressure. they do have the right to defend themselves, clearly. we had a center of influence, we the united states, over time, saying is this the right time? there are other things we can do together to slow down, to delay, to get them to come -- iran -- come to the negotiating table on their nuclear weapon program. congress, over the last two years, passed two very significant pieces of legislation that instructed the president, you will go into tougher sanctions with iran. they seem to be working. it is the financial pressure on iran right now -- >> how do we know that? >> -- is devastating. >> stop building nuclear -- >> no, we haven't. it's working in the sense that it is affecting every sector of their economy inspect in 2009, they had the green revolution

where they were tired of their regime. this puts pressure on the same people who are anti their own iranian regime, their leader. this puts pressure on all of that to turn this thing around. now it's impacting average iranians in their daily lives. inflation is just rampant. the fact that they're having a hard time getting access to currency for transactions is starting to be a real problem. and our argument is, can we work with the israelis on this and other programs to try to delay or stop this program by bringing iran to the table? that, to me, is a better outcome than inflaming the middle east. but when you've lost that leverage, it makes israel have to make their own decision on their own defense. >> let me move you to the other hot spot right now real quickly, and that is syria. the president in august said this. we have consistently said that president assas must lead a democratic transition or get out of the way.

he has not led. obviously, seven months later, assad is still in place, he still, as far as we know, killing his people. the u.s. basically can't affect this in any way, can't they? even at the u.n., we were blocked by russia and china. >> i think the arab league is the best option in this particular case. they understand what's happening in syria. he this understand it's not good for the greater middle east. they've started to increase their pressure. i think that has to be our option. and i think it's the best option for the united states right now. u.n. resolution is not going to get there with russia and china standing in the way. >> it is not. thank you so much, congressman, for joining us. mike rogers, chairman of the house intelligence committee. >> thanks for having me. up next, our "sound of sunday." highlights from the other sunday morning talk shows. and then "fareed zakaria gps" at the top of the hour. you can see. reds like whole roasted nuts, chewy granola, and real fruit. nature valley trail mix bars. 100% natural. 100% delicious. 100% natural.

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now time for today's "sound of sunday." on the heels of two straight losses in the fight for the republican nomination, presidential candidate newt gingrich's immediate plan is to

hang in till march and look south. >> our goal is to get to super tuesday where we're in much more favorable territory. as you'll note, even in florida where i was outspent 5-1, we carried all of the panhandle area. we actually carried more counties than he did. and so we want to get to georgia, to alabama, to tennessee. we want to get to states -- texas. we believe by the time texas is over, we'll be very, very competitive in delegate count. >> former pennsylvania senator rick santorum predicts he'll have a better showing than nevada this tuesday in colorado, minnesota and missouri. but he won't get out if he doesn't. >> i think we're going to show improvement. this race is a long, long way from being over. as people start seeing romney doing well and gingrich really not up to the task with the money and the resources and the organization that he had, and particularly in florida, they're looking for somebody else who can take on mitt romney, and more importantly, take on barack

obama. >> former new york city mayor and one-time presidential hopeful rudy giuliani suggested sunday he reason he has not endorsed front-runner mitt romney yet is because he's flip-flopped so much on issues. >> i think that's the reason why he's having a hard time getting to that 50, 51, 52, 53%. and newt pointed it out before when he was interviewing you. he has changed his position on virtually everything. he was a traditional, moderate republican, strong on fiscal matters, conservative, strong on foreign policy, but basically socially moderate. and he changed all that. >> and against a backdrop of falling jobless figures in january, massachusetts democrat governor deval patrick is pushing back against republican suggestions that the president doesn't deserve credit. >> i think sometimes it seems that facts are unwelcome things to the speaker and to many republicans today. there is a way that if we all act as if we are in this together to reduce the deficit

and grow the economy and continue the 23 consecutive months of job growth that we have under the president. >> and that's today's "sound of sunday." it is super bowl sunday, and from that, we drew our inspiration for this week's edition of the campaign trail. >> are you ready to go out there and take what's yours? >> yeah! >> what you worked hard for? >> yeah! >> that's dwayne "the rock" johnson in "the gridiron gang." one of the inspirational locker room scenes that hollywood routinely pumps out. and if you've covered enough presidential campaigns, you begin to know that candidates sound a lot like football coaches at halftime. >> our goal is to win. >> i'm convinced i can beat barack bvm. >> we will win the nomination, and we will then win the election. >> it's not about winning. it's about you and your

relationship to yourself and your family and your friends. >> i do talk about family a lot. because family is the key. >> we've been married for 55 years. we've 5 children and 18 grandchildren. >> i see so many kmirn children this audience. >> you've got to lay that heart on the line, men. >> i need your help across the board. >> this really is a battle about the soul of america. >> let's get them. >> get out there and caucus! >> either we're here now as a team, or we will die. >> president reagan. >> ronald reagan. >> ronald reagan used to say -- >> ask them to go in there with all they've got. win just one for the gipper. >> in case you didn't recognize in that last clip, it was from knute rockne all-american, the young actor, ronald reagan. proof of just one degree of separation between politics and football.