situation room. the news continues next on cnn. good evening from the cnn election center i'm john king. two important stories this hour, the taliban vowed beheadings of americans to retaliate for the massacre of afghan civilians allegedly at the hand of an army staff sergeant. the new violence raises questions about the decade-long military mission and about the care given soldiers with traumatic brain injuries. plus the deep south gets its say in the roller coaster republican presidential race. will alabama and mississippi submit mitt romney as the head. let's begin with the latest round of voting. four contests in all tonight. hawaii and american samoa also casting ballots. most of the attention focused on alabama and mississippi. late polls in both states showed races too close to call. our exit polls also suggest a fierce competition in both states with conservative

support. early exit polling, we'll bring this over for you. here we are in the state of mississippi tonight. voters were asked as they went to the polls. what's the most important candidate quality. you can see more than four in ten republican voters in the state of mississippi today say their number one priority is beating president obama in november. about 20% say they want a true conservative. 20% say strong moral character matters most to them. look at the state of alabama. same question. what's the most important candidate quality? little lower number there about four in ten say the most important thing they want is a candidate who can defeat president obama, a true conservative, strong moral character and the right experience about equal, around 20%, a little below that. next question here, who is that candidate? remember this is not telling you who they voted for. voters are asked regardless of who you voted for, who do you think would be the strongest candidate against president obama? governor romney, 52% of mississippi voters said they believe romney would be the strongest candidate. that doesn't mean that's who they voted for but that's what they think. in the state of alabama romney

came out on top. 46% of republicans said he was the candidate they believe most likely defeat obama. 23% said of speecher gingrich, 24% of senator santorum. one last question for the exit polls, are romney's positions on the issues too conservative, not conservative enough or about right? well, in the state of mississippi more than half of the voters today said his positions are not conservative enough. remember this is a conservative southern state. and in alabama, a higher number. 55% said governor romney's positions are not conservative enough. so where did these voters go? let's take a closer look on this one. 42% of alabama voter whose said romney's not conservative enough voted for rick santorum. 40% of those who said governor romney's not conservative enough voted for speaker gingrich. it shows you not only a fierce competition for the most conservative voters and a potential split that could help governor romney. we'll watch how that plays out as we get the results. the stakes are enormous. a win by governor romney in the

south would significantly boltster his frontrunner. they argue gingrich needs a win to keep his bid alive. for governor almost any this is about proving you're a real republican in the geographic base of the party. if he wins one is it over? >> i think so. if he answers that question, listen. whoever thinks that those folks who are going to vote for santorum or gingrich tonight will vote for obama in the fall are crazy. let's put that out on the table. but when you look at mitt romney has the most to win out of tonight and newt gingrich has the most to lose. and santorum goes on. >> regardless? >> i think santorum continues. his campaign will tell you that they've got some good primaries coming up. they can do pennsylvania. that this isn't a math problem. but i think the party has a head-heart problem. if you look at the numbers you just showed, their heads are telling they electability. this is what we care about. but their hearts are saying mitt

romney is not conservative enough. he doesn't share my values. so they're having a real tug-of-war there about who they want. >> i think rick santorum has to one at least one of them to go on as a viable candidate. anybody gets blanked out of both of these, if it's newt gingrich or santorum. >> it's hard to say that i'm a better conservative alternative to mitt romney if you lose two to him in the south, right? >> exactly. who thought we'd be here? [ overlapping speakers ] >> who thought romney would be competitive in these two states. >> is he competitive because he's competitive or because gingrich and santorum are still in the race splitting the vote? >> that's a big part of it. we've seen a lot of folks that have looked deeper into the numbers and who's your second choice. it's not necessarily if one of them gets out of the race all of those votes then go to the other. it doesn't work that cleanly. >> the romney people say that if newt gingrich dropped out they'd get half of those i mean that santorum would get half of those votes. they'd only get 30%. but that 30% would be enough.

>> but santorum would also get -- if newt gingrich dropped out santorum would get more money in. he would be a more competitive candidate. it would be a bigger test of romney in the states ahead. >> conceivably as we count the votes tonight that's tomorrow's conversation. either gingrich or santorum have such a bad night, even though they insist they're going on -- >> if romney wins one or both of these states that's the other half of the conversation. >> that's an interesting night in republican politics. alabama's conservative republican governor made his preference known this morning. governor robert bentley says he was voting for rick santorum but he says that's not a formal endorsement. live tonight from montgomery, alabama. governor explain the distinction for me. i assume that means you didn't call your political organization and say get out there, turn out the vote, grab people by the ears and get them out for senator santorum. am i sfliet. >> that's exactly right. i was asked last evening who i was going to vote for. and i said i was going to vote for senator santorum. and that word got out today.

and that is the form of the endorsement. i actually believe it's not good to endorse people. because people in this state like to make up their own mind. and i certainly believe they have the right to do that. >> when you look at the voting you just listened to the conversation we were having with our smart reporters and analysts here. if you're a santorum supporter do you think if speaker gingrich should get out of the race or senator santorum comes in third or second or loses both these states tonight, should one of the non-romney candidates get out stop that an allegedly more conservative alternative gets a one on one shot? >> you know, i don't think you should tell anybody to get out. i don't think it's anyone's right to tell a candidate to get out. they've been working hard on this campaign for a number of months. and they certainly have a right to stay in as long as they wish. >> what's your sense? you do see the head-heart as gloria borger just put it. a lot of republicans say the most important thing is beating president obama in the fall, a lot of them go on in the next sentence to say they think governor romney would be the

strongest candidate. many of those same people are voting for somebody else, rick santorum or newt gingrich or ron paul. what's made this so unpredictable? >> i think any of the candidates would be good candidates. and i think that governor romney probably has the best chance of winning the nomination. i mean, there's no doubt about that. but you know, you should always vote your heart, i think. and if you believe that someone is the best candidate, even though you don't think they're going to win, i think you ought to vote for who you think is the best candidate. >> you gave an interview to our former friend on -- you said you thought governor romney's mormon faith would be a detriment to some voters in the state of alabama. how significant do you think that is? and does it bother you, sir? >> you know, it really does not. it does not bother me. but i do think that it is a very subtle thing. and no one is going -- when you

question people, most people will not admit that. but i do think not just in alabama but i think in many non-mormon states i think it certainly can be a problem for -- in the primary. in the primary. but now, once the general election comes around, if governor romney is the nominee it will not be a problem. >> i assume alabama will stay red in november. governor bentley, certainly appreciate your time tonight, sir. fascinating night. we'll watch as the results come in along with you. >> thank you. >> thank you, sir. now let's shift to today's major international news. the fallout from the massacre of afghan civilians allegedly by an army staff sergeant who'd been treated for a traumatic brain injury after an earlier tour in iraq. two senior military officials now telling cnn alcohol was found in an area of the base where the suspect lived. they're investigating now whether alcohol might have been a factor in the rampage. they also caution us the alcohol may not have belonged to the suspect at all. military officials say the military now reviewing pictures of the soldier leaving the base

and then returning later. in eastern afghanistan today about 500 people blocked a highway, burned effigies and shouted anti-u.s. slogans but their demonstrations stayed peaceful. the taliban promised bloody retaliation, is now threatening to behead americans. both at the white house and on the campaign trail calls to stay firm and resist temptation to change policy. here's what republican candidate mitt romney told cnn's wolf blitzer moments ago. >> there's certainly time on a regular basis to review our mission there and to see what progress we're making and not to make decisions based upon some actions by a crazed gunman. we don't determine our foreign policy based on something of that nature. >> at the white house today, president obama voiced his condolences for the victims and their families, but said the united states must complete its mission in afghanistan. >> there's no question that we face a difficult challenge in afghanistan. but i'm confident that we can continue the work of meeting our

objectives, protecting our country and responsible inly bringing this war to a close. >> chief white house correspondent jessica yellin is here to take us inside the administration deliberations. jessica is there a chance despite what the administration says publicly this could become part of a pressure to move up the withdrawal date? >> reporter: it seems that way. the white house is adamant they have no intentions withdrawing troops sooner than 2014 which is what the president has publicly committed. to privately we know there are disagreements within the administration about the rate at which those troops should be withdrawn. that's after the surge troops come out at the end of this summer. so senior military officials, they have made it known that they'd prefer as many troops stay as long in afghanistan as possible. now, some in the white house, let's call it the by bide enfaction, are believed to want to bring as many troops out as fast as possible. then others prefer a middle

option. bottom line publicly the white house has committed to no timetable for that draw down. all of that is to be announced. >> and you say to be announced. part of his discussion with allies, british prime minister david cameron here right now with conversations with the president. how important is afghanistan to this meeting? >> reporter: well, prime minister cameron and president obama are both major contributors to nato forces. nato will be meeting in chicago this may. now, we expect this topic of troop draw down in afghanistan to be a topic of discussion there. and no doubt prime minister cameron and the president would want to work something out to be on the same page or close to it in advance of that may nato meeting. so this seems inevitable topic of conversation for these two men, john. >> our chief white house correspondent jessica yellin. we'll stay on top of this story. a former united nations weapons inspector tells cnn iran may have conducted explosive tests connected to a possible nuclear weapons program. david allbright the president of

the institute of science and international security says his group has identified a building in an iranian military base near tehran as the possible site of a high explosive test chamber. it's in the upper right quadrant of the picture seeing right there. here's a closer view. mr. allbright says the building has its own perimeter security with an earthen berm separating it from a neighboring building. very important qualities for this type of facility. we'll talk to senator john mccain being quoted as saying the u.s. mission in afghanistan is in jeopardy. also insights on the traumatic brain injury from one of the doctors who helped save the life of congresswoman the life of congresswoman gabrielle giffords. -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com your cat can enjoy the delicious, satisfying taste of gourmet gravy every day. fancy feast. the best ingredient is love. [ zipper, heavy breathing ]

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the deaths of 16 afghan civilians allegedly at the hands of a u.s. soldier then followed by threats of retaliation has renewed the debate of when u.s. troops should leave afghanistan. president obama indicated today the strategy hasn't changed. >> make no mistake. we have a strategy that will allow us to responsibly wind down this war. we're steadily transitioning to the afghans who are moving into the lead. and that's going to allow us to bring our troops home.

>> but ranking member of the senate armed services committee, senator john mccain, says the president's rhetoric sends the long message to lead nurse afghanistan. senator mccain, how so? how is the president saying the wrong message? >> he sent the wrong message for a long time. i was glad to hear what he said today. but he doesn't have much credibility anymore in the region. because initially for a surge they asked for 40,000. he agreed to only 30,000. they needed the end of another fighting season in order to finish the job in the eastern afghanistan, the president announced an early withdrawal. the military commanders said in testimony that would quote increase the risk. why we would want to increase the risk one doesn't know. a few months or two ago secretary panetta said that more troops would be coming out in 2013. then that was retracted. obviously you just reported there's a debate going on in the white house now as to vice-president biden who was

dead wrong about the surge and other aspects of national security policy, wants a lot more out and a lot quicker. what signal does that send to the people in the region? that america's leaving? that they can't depend on america? and they can't depend on even finishing the job that and the strategy that general allen laid out for them. that's what the problem is, john. >> you just mentioned general allen, senator. often when we have these debates people say it's a political debay. maybe it's partisan. let's let the politicians decide and talk to the commanders on the ground. listen to general allen just the other day. >> the relationship will only grow stronger between afghanistan and the united states and afghanistan and the international community and the campaign remains on track. >> are you confident, senator, about that last part? the campaign remains on track? a lot of the american people as you well know are pretty tired. they don't see evidence that this is worth it. >> well, look. i understand the war weariness

of the american people. i understand their sorrow and anger at what just happened and also these killings of american servicemen by afghans in uniform. this is very tough. americans are war weary. but it is the job of some of us to remind people that 9/11 began in afghanistan. al qaeda and the taliban could come back and very likely would if we left afghanistan in disarray. and we don't want that to happen. it's not in our national security interests. i think general allen was talk about his plan. we have had significant success on the ground. but as ambassador ryan pointed out, we still have the problem, a serious problems with corruption, within the karzai government, the isi, the pakistani intelligence still supporting the hakani network who are killing americans. but i can tell you from being there that we are sending signals of withdrawal all the time, not signals of staying the

course. and i admire our military leadership, but you just reported this debate continues within the white house. what kind of signal does that send to our adversaries? >> let me ask you another question. i call this a generational challenge for the country. i'm not sure the country's had enough of a conversation even started the conversation. but we can't connect the dots yet. but we do know the suspect in this shooting had a traumatic brain injury from a vehicle rollover in iraq. senator you visit walter reed, wounded warrior programs. do you think the american people and your colleagues in the congress understand that for the next 20, 25 years and beyond, there's a moral and it's going to be a pretty big financial obligation to understanding what these brave men and women, whether you supported the wars or not, some of the issues and the trauma they're coming home with? >> first of all, most gratifying part of america today to me is that even though americans may disagree with our engagements in iraq and afghanistan, overwhelmingly honor those who

serve. that was not the case in the war in which i was in. look. there are these kinds of injuries and problems associated with every conflict that we've been in. i am confident that the american people will continue their support for these individuals who have served and sacrificed so much. >> i want to shift real quickly. a big day in presidential politics, two southern states voting today. you know what it's like to be a frontrunner. you know what it's like to have your opponent say oh, no way, the math won't add up. heath weak. we can get in. we'll have a brokered convention. speaker gingrich on a radio show in alabama earlier today he says this might be the way we get mitt romney. >> with rick and me together, we are really slowing him down, with some help frankly from ron paul. i think if you look at the country is sort of saying by a majority are saying not romney. the biggest block is saying romney but it's not big enough block to be a majority. we now are beginning to think he

literally won't be able to get the delegates to get the nomination. >> you're a romney supporter. will he not be able to get the delegates to get the nomination and can santorum and gingrich block him? >> i think it's very possible that mitt romney may win both alabama and mississippi tonight. putting to rest that myth that he can't succeed in southern states. by the way, i'm sure it's because he's grown to like grits and other things. but the fact is that if he wins both of them tonight i think it sends a signal that he can win anywhere. you and i have been around politics for a long time. every time when there's been contested races we've heard the quote brokered convention. it's just not going to happen, john. >> i'm staying in this business hoping there might be one eventually, senator. that's why i stay at this to keep going. >> it would be fun to watch. >> we'll be up late tonight watching the results. senator john mccain, appreciate

your insights tonight. see you soon. as the senator noted they're going to count the votes about 1 hour 40 minutes now from the polls closing in mississippi and bamtz. stand by for more of what voters in the deep south are telling our exit pollsters. why an everyday laundry item you may have at home right now has turned into one of the hottest items for shoplifters. t jobs leaving america. here's a chance to create jobs in america. oil sands projects, like kearl, and the keystone pipeline will provide secure and reliable energy to the united states. over the coming years, projects like these could create more than half a million jobs in the us alone. from the canadian border, through the mid west, to the gulf coast. benefiting hundreds of thousands of families throughout the country. this is just what our economy needs right now. a second gen intel® core™ i5 or i7 processor. everything. and more. ♪

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welcome back. here's kate bolduan with the latest news you need to know

right there. >> reporter: good evening, everyone. news to catch you up on. reports say fighting across syria claimed over three dozen lives today, not all of them civilians. reuters reports army defectors ambushed a checkpoint killing at least ten soldiers. the thursday marks the anniversary of the uprising against president bashar al ass assad. for the first time of the u.s., europe and japan are taking on china in the world trait organization. their complaint accuse,s the chinese of unfairly restrict gt exports of some 17 rare metals that are vital to the manufacture of many things like mobile phones, computer disc drives, wind turbines, even electric cars. the chinese say they're trying to protect the environment. back here in the states, four of the biggest banks in the country failed stress tests meant to figure out if they could survive another deep recession. the federal reserve says citibank, ally, suntrust and met life couldn't prove they had enough capital to keep going if

unemployment spiked to 13% and housing prices plummeted 21%. 15 other banks showed they do have enough of a buffer. and this is going to sound crazy, but it's happening. some stores are putting tide laundry detergent under lockdown. it's become a target for shoplifters and a hot item on the black market apparently in some cities. everybody needs clean clothes but tide sells for between 8 and $24 a bottle. the thieves steal it and sell it for half price and even go to the extent of trading it directly for drugs in some cases. >> okay. i guess you know currency. whatever the current currency people will steal. pretty amazing. >> sometimes the news surprises us. thanks so much. just over 90 minutes now until most polls close in mississippi and alabama. new exit polls in a couple of minutes. it's been called the most troubled base in the military. the suspect in the afghan rampage calls it home. coming up we're talking to the

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in this half hour new exit poll data on the battle for the south and the republican presidential nomination. the latest on the investigation of the army staff sergeant now accused of gunning down 16 afghan civilians and the surgeon who helped save congresswoman's gabrielle giffords's life explains the horrors and treatments for the traumatic brain injuries now far too common among the troops who serve in iraq and afghanistan.

the taliban now calling for the heads of americans in afghanistan. revenge, they say, for the methodical murders of 11 children and five adults allegedly at hand of one u.s. soldier. as we reported at the top of the hour, outrage is growing. hundreds owe protesters gathered jilalabad chanting death to america. we're learning alcohol may have played a role in the rampage. >> reporter: two senior officials now say that the military is investigating whether alcohol was a factor in this massacre. one official says that alcohol was found in the area where the suspect lived on base, but right now they are not sure who it belonged to. they did do a toxic screening, but so far those results haven't come back yet. we're also told that because the legal proceedings will likely last beyond this soldier's tour of duty in afghanistan, at some

point he'll probably be brought back home to the united states. >> and chris, any other problems investigators are finding as they try to work on this investigation? >> there are some. for one, john, the bodies of the victims were buried quickly according to islamic tradition. and it's highly unlikely they would ever be exhumed. but u.s. official tells us that because these victims were shot at close range in their homes, many of these high-powered bullets passed through them and embedded in the wall. he thinks ballistics won't be a problem. but leaks in public statements may be down the road. in military officials are now concerned that recent statements may lead a defense attorney to say, this person cannot get a fair trial. you had the defense secretary raising the issue that he could face the death penalty, and you had the commander in chief say that the united states takes these attacks and takes this massacre as seriously as if our

own children were murdered, using the word "murder." john? >> chris lawrence, tracking the investigation. live at the pentagon. chris, thanks so much. we don't know much about the suspect who has not been identified but we know he suffered a traumatic brain injury serving in iraq in 2010. he was later deemed fit to return to duty. now a lot of people are questioning whether that was the right call. no one knows more about the human brain than dr. peter ree. he helped save congresswoman gabrielle giffords. appreciate your help at this difficult time. some 30,000 cases of tbi across the military last year. how much do we know? how much does your business, the experts, actually know about how to figure out, a, how severe it is, and b, when somebody's ready to go back into the dangerous combat role? >> well, i think there's always more to learn. and the research in traumatic brain injury is still in its

infancy. obviously the brain is very complex. and fortunately the vast majority of people who get traumatic brain injury do recover and return to their normal lives. because it is -- the majority, mild traumatic brain injury. >> i want you to listen to something here. i was out at this base, fort lewis, where this suspect is stationed at the wounded warrior battalion because it had had some problems. they were trying to redo it. i met with the commander at the time. he was talking about how ptsd and traumatic brain injuries were among the biggest problems. listen to this. >> some of the tools that we have, there's hyperbaric treatment for some traumatic brain injuries that gives more oxygenization to the brain to help them deal with that. i don't know how that's working. i think pretty good in some cases. whatever we can do that gets some success i think we should promote that. but i don't think we've really cracked the nut on how to really get at ptsd and tbi. >> that's two years ago.

i don't think really cracked the nut. how different is the level of care somebody coming back from iraq or afghanistan would receive on a military base while still on active duty than say if i were in a car accident and was taken to a civilian hospital? >> well, i would say that it's actually much better. because they screen for it. and they're very cognizant about the fact that many of the people get traumatic brain injury even from mild concussions and blasts. in the civilian sector in most sections we don't screen for it nearly as carefully as the military does. so i would say the military's treatment for it is much superior than the civilian aspect. >> and you understand the military culture, sir. how much does culture factor into this one? you go to the wounded warrior battalions meet these heroes, many with physical injuries, many with tbi or ptsd. all they say they want to get back with their buddies. they want to go back. god bless them for that. but does that sometimes perhaps

get in the way of a more careful, more cautious medical diagnosis? >> well, actually i think in some senses it does. but motivated individuals have a tendency to want to get back and they're very heavily screened to make sure that they're ready and able to go back. so i don't think that's too much of an issue overall. but again, the military is very good at that. they have a systematic process in place that screens everybody coming back from deployment. anybody that's in harm's way. to make sure they're doing all right and to give them all the necessary tools to get back into their life. >> dr. peter rhee, appreciate your insights in this current investigation and generational talk into the years ahead. the soldier accused was based in washington state at the joint-based lewis mcchord home to 40,000 service members. described in 2010 as the most troubled base in the military by

"stars and stripes" a military newspaper. democrat congressman allen smith his district includes this base. is it in your view? do you agree with "stars and stripes." ? is this the most troubled base in the system? why? >> i think a statement like that is not terribly helpful. there's no metric to measure that against. i are remember that article shortly thereafter. what does that even mean? i think we need to stop thinking about the individual base and start thinking about the military more broadly. certainly the issue that you just raised with dr. rhee, how can we do a better job with ptsd, with tbi. because these are complicated, difficult problems. the science isn't clear. and we have just a huge number of our men and women coming back from combat zones in iraq earlier, afghanistan now. we got to come up with a comprehensive approach to that. focusing on one base or another i don't think is really helpful. let's focus on the individual serving in the military and how we can help them.

>> you do represent the base this suspect calls home, because of your position on the armed services committee. do you have any access to private information? do you know more about this suspect and what allegedly happened than those of news the public domain? >> i do not. at this point, most of it is speculation. that's the other thing about passing judgment on an entire military base. we don't even know exactly what happened here. the actions of a handful of individuals should not be used to taint a base that as you said has over 40,000 servicemen and women. even more civilians and gosh, over 100,000 people come on and off that base every day. and most of them, the overwhelming majority of them, are serving our country quite well. they deserve our respect and our support. so we should be careful about casting wide aspergss based on a couple of individualses. >> do you take issue at all with the president's use of the term "murder" or the defense secretary saying if the investigation leads to charges there could be a death penalty

here? >> no, i don't. i think those are common sense comments given what we know happened. 16 people were brutally killed. i think they are expressing appropriate condolences for the families of those who were killed, and outrage at the incident. this is a horrible, horrific incident. that needs to be roundly condemned just as both the secretary and the president have done and many others as well. >> and you're on the record, sir, saying that if it's possible to accelerate the draw down of u.s. troops the president and the commander should try to figure out a way to do that. do you believe this incident will add to impetus for that? or do you say don't let that get involved in that calculation? >> well, i think it will be a part of it. but i think there are larger issues that are more important than an individual incident. look, our goal here is to have an afghan government that can stand. so the taliban don't come back to power, don't give safe haven to al qaeda again. but the time has comfort afghan people to stand up, provide their own security, provide their own governance. we've done a loft of work there.

incredible work. beating back the taliban, training the afghan national security forces, trying to improve the governance. at the end of the day the afghan people have to be responsible for all of that on their own. and the presence of a large foreign military force is in many ways a destabilizing factor. nobody in any country would like to have a foreign military walking up and down their streets. so i think we've done the work we can do. we need to draw down as soon as we can responsibly. i mean, the president's working towards that. that's the direction that we need to go in. >> representative adam smith, democrat of washington state. sir, appreciate your insights tonight. >> thank you. >> thank you. about an hour and 15 minutes now away from the time most polls in mississippi and alabama close. in a minute we'll take a closer look at what the voters are telling us as they head out of the polls and talk to extra polesters. also the truth about tonight's impact on the delegate chase. all energy development comes with some risk,

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a little more than an hour now until the polls close in alabama and mississippi. two very important deep south contests that could dramatically reshape the republican race for president. let's look a little bit at what we're learning from our exit polls tonight. here's one thing we know. voters going to the polls republicans in both sats say defeating obama is important to them. in both states they asked people regardless of how you voted, who's the best candidate, strongest to beat president obama? in alabama, 46% said that was mitt romney. let's move over here to

mississippi. 52% said that in the state of mississippi. again that's not an indication he would win these states, it's an indication republican voters think regardless of how they voted he'd be stronger against the president. let's look at one more data point here. are you a ite evangelical born again christian? in alabama more than 7 in 10 voters say yes, i'm an evangelical. this has been a huge question for the romney candidacy. can he win in these states. look at mississippi, the highest number in the campaign so far. the highest percentage of voters in a primary describing themselves as evangelicals, 81% in the state of mississippi. let's move over here to the magic wall and look at how we start the day. if you look at these dark red states, those are governor romney. purple senator santorum. south carolina and georgia speaker gingrich. these are the the two big prizes in play tonight, hawaii and american samoa also voting. it takes 1144 to win. governor romney is well ahead of his rivals not close to the finish line yet. why is winning in south so important? let's say for the sake of argument, let's say that --

well, got to turn this over. let's touch here. let's say that speaker gingrich wins right there and governor romney wins one. let's give romney one of the two tonight. proportional delegation. it would put him over the 500 mark. you'd still have the others well behind him. that governor romney says is the goal. he says he'd like to win one down in the south, love to win two. he this he wins hawaii and american is a mow wa. he thinks his delegate lead tonight will be even bigger. >> it's all about getting delegates. and i hope to get more delegates tonight. if the polls are anywhere near correct we'll end up with i don't know a third of the delegates. and if that's the case, why, that makes us closer to that magic number. >> so will the south make mitt romney the inevitable nominee or will this go on and on and on? we've got a great group here in the cnn election center. mr. erickson not a romney fan.

if he wins one and places second in these deep south plates, maybe wins two what's the conversation late tonight? >> i think he was over after ohio. definitely over once he can say i can win the south as well. how he wins the south i'm sure the gingrich and santorum campaigns will come up with excuses if he wins one of them for why he won it. at the same time, i think it's over. >> as a democrat watching this race, you want this to go on and on? >> that would be so sad if it were over. >> oh. >> now, why from a tactical november reason, why? >> because really, the longer that this goes on we've seen from poll after poll that they -- these three candidates are corroding the favorablies for republicans generally so this primary going on would benefit democrats. but you know, i think it's going to be tough for gingrich and santorum to keep at this. but really, the issue, we'll talk about this more, it's not going to be what the candidates want, it's going to be what the

candidates' funders want. it's going to be about whether sheldon adelson and foster freese want to give in the towel not whether gingrich and santorum do. >> you can't run a campaign without money. mary if governor romney can win one of two of these tonight what is the rationale? they all say he's a weak frontrunner. if governor romney beats you in the geographical base of the can i if that makes him weak what are you? >> that's what he said. if i'm weak what are you guys? the argument has been, he can't close the deal they can't close the deal. let me say it from the reverse of what happens to romney. if newt gingrich is the southern regional candidate, his rationale, if he won both these states he would not eliminate santorum. if romney wins one or both, he can eliminate one or both of his conservative challengers. so he doesn't have to do as well tonight as gingrich or santorum have to do. and i disagree with my friend here. we like it going on. some republicans like it going

on. i really the friend here, some of the republicans like it going, and some republicans do, like it going on, because the conservative verbiage gets better and they are not so mean to each other, and sort of gone back to everybody's sweet spot for us which is against obama. so it did not hurt y'all last time, it will not hurt us. >> i will not say y'all. >> well, i can say it. >> and you live in louisiana. >> and lived in chicago. >> and if chris dodd or joe biden or whoever would have won, mickey mouse as the dem krakt no, ma' -- democratic nominee would have won. >> who was that? >> and senator obama was a better candidate after going through the race, and are you sure that drawing the race out hurts the republicans? >> well, it helped ronald reagan and bill clinton and certainly barack obama and george w. bush even though he led wire to wire, and the case those candidates

were not pulled out of the message to the extremes here. mitt romney has taken positions in terms of the latino vote and women, which are two of the most important constituencies in november, and he has taken positions that are extreme, vetoing the dream act and taking rick perry to the right, and to banning all funding for planned parenthood. he did not have those positions in the beginning, but he has been pulled out of the mainstream and paying an awful price. and this thing, if you are weak, what are you? well, they are pathetic, and he is the strongest member of the weak field, and it is like being the sexiest member of the supreme court. >> and the shorter period that mitt romney can move to the center which is what his strategy is, the better it is for him. >> a strong politician learns deflection and i'm not sure what the strategists call it, but

wolf blitzer was interviewing rick santorum about the super pac, and what was being for the campaign? >> well, senator santorum is trying to boost the prospects and the campaign and frankly misrepresenting the truth is not a good way of doing that. >> and let me turn this way. david gergen and gloria borger with us, and the desperate end is how governor romney describes where santorum is, and i showed 8 in 10 voters in mississippi are evangelicals and 7 in 10 in alabama, and so if governor santorum can win some of those races, what is the strategy for santorum who says that he cannot win over the party? >> well, romney should make the argument into rick santorum and newt gingrich to stay in, because the way he could win mississippi and alabama is that they are splitting the very con

ser vative evangelical voters, and so you should beg them to stay in. >> is there one candidate after tonight? >> yes. because if one candidate wins one of the states, the other candidate loses twice. so two of the most conservative states in the uncountry, and amg the two most conservative states and what does that say if you cannot beat mitt romney? >> well, we have to go quickly, but do you believe we may lose a candidate tonight? >> i don't think so. >> they all want to be there. >> and they are camped out in louisiana. they are going on. >> and james and you are ready for the candidates when they come through? >> open house. >> ego plus money is all you need, and they will continue on through the face reality. >> and votes help occasionally, too. >> well, apparently not. >> we will have all of of these guys here and make cheesy grits coming up, and we will go live

to jefferson, alabama, a big prize in the primaries in alabama and dana bash will walk us through why this county is so important. we will be right back after this. [ man ] predicting the future is hard. but i have this new smartphone. and now i can see everything more clearly.

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they are watching to see where the votes come in, and we are physically where the votes will come in. check this out, john. this is the loading dock and the ballots will pull up in an hour and a half after the polls close, and i also want you to see this. this is literally called the vault. this ball lots t l ots go into they opened it up for us, and they go in there and those are the paper ballots and everything is done on computers so they have memory cards for all of the precincts around this county around 177. they will drop it through this window, and the computer in there is where the information will go in terms of the results of the precincts around this important county, and then i want to show you what goes on back here real quick. we will be able to look through the window, and this is literally where the two gentlemen on the computers will be looking at the results and counting them as they come in from this kun county. and not only is it important,

but it is a microcosm of the general election of the state, but also the caucus of the republican voters and for mitt romney in particular especially in the outskirts of the county, it is more affluent and talked to the people, and they said they need to run up the numbers big time if they have a chance of winning the state. >> and dana down there on the ground tracking down the votes, and any word from either campaign feeling like they did the best job on the ground? >> well, you know, they all say it is really hard for them to tell. anecdotely talking to state and local officials they say that the turnout is low, but not sure what that means. looking in here, we will know the real answers to the questions by looking at this screen tonight here. and you can see that some of the candidates are no longer officially candidates, but they are not on the ballot, and we