predicting why scott walker will keep his job as governor of wisconsin. number one, it's obvious. red is republican. you see a lot of red. let's break it down closer. dane county here, this is the this is the key county for democrats in the state, about 8% of the population. democrats say their turnout operation worked well there. but tom barrett the democrat getting 60% and scott walker getting 40% right there. tom barrett needs to be at about 70%. he needs to be up around 70% in this key county right there. let's come back to the map here a little bit. come over here to the mill kauky suburbs. this is waukesha county. the key county for republicans in this state. 75%, scott walker got just over 70% last time. he's overperforming. what we are seeing as we go from county to county in all of the key counties, come up here, brown county where green bay st, walker getti inting 60% with 70 the vote in. that's an improvement from two years ago. you can pick your key county across the state. everything we see so far. the republican incumbent, scott walker overperforming and barrett is underperforming.

we'll break it down what it means for the state tonight, what it means for the election come november. dana bash is at governor walker's headquarters. the former white house press secretary for george w. bush, ari fleischer and also, paul begala, also an adviser for the pro obama super pac priorities usa. senior political analyst david gergen also with us. let's go straight to the ground. dana, you're at walker headquarters, this was a hot fight. earlier today they got a bit nervous. t the democrats thought they might beat them on the ground. scott walker now projected to be the winner. what's the reaction right there? >> reporter: oh, it is absolutely intense. the minute that the local station here called the race for scott walker, this place erupted like i haven't heard or seen any election night. really even during the presidential primaries. the republican primaries that i was covering earlier this year. this is a fired up crowd and it really speaks to the intensity, john, the real intensity that

has been going on on the ground here in wisconsin for months and months and months. as i mentioned earlier, i think, to you, the fact of the matter is that people here -- i'm told by one republican strategist very true, people here would walk across coals for scott walker, but then the same intensity is on the other side. they would walk across coals to vote against him. at the end of the day walker won. the fact is he did have unbelievable money coming in here. it really was the intensity in the ground game at the end of the day that helped the governor stay in office and fight this recall. >> dana, stay with us. we'll continue the conversation. i want to bring ari fleischer in now. i can already hear it, democrats are going to say, well, we were seven to one. money came in from all these outside groups. it wasn't a fair fight. outside interests bought this election. what do you say?

>> both sides have more than enough money and resources in wisconsin. i think when you count all the organized labor can do with the number of people they can bring into the state, the number of of resources, phone banks, et cetera. both sides have nothing to complain about. the republicans i'm talking to, john, it's euphoria. the republican national committee people are pointing out to me how much coordination they did, the number of offices that were open, the aggressive absentee ballot program they had. 4 million voter contacts, they say, more than the republicans had in 2008. they look at this as a crucial test run for wisconsin in november and i think that's probably right. the real issue here, at least politically for the presidency, is the 2012 landscape more like 2010 or 2008? at least in the snapshot of this recall in wisconsin, it looks more like 2010. >> paul begala, on the right side of your screen you're seeing scott walker's headquarters. he's the incumbent republican governor. he has withstood the challenge tonight. cnn has projected he'll continue

in office. the recall election has failed. paul, you heard ari make the case this is a key benchmark as to what will happen 154 days from now when wisconsin votes for president. before i bring you into the conversation i want to -- not to conte contest ari, but to show wisconsin voters were asked today and even as they kept their republican governor in office, 53% of wi voters today said they would vote for president obama in november. 42% said they'd vote for governor romney. that's a margin roughly equal to the mccain/obama margin. ari, are you nervous when you see the results? >> first off, let me show some good manners. scott walker and his crew are to be congratulated. they have done a remarkable thing. this is the most powerful anti-incumbent tide all around the world that we have seen in decades, maybe in my lifetime. you know, dominant party turned out in france, turned out in greece, turned out in britain at

the local level. every incumbent running should be running scared. governor walker got a scare but he hung on. his team is to be congratulated. having said that, does this have anything to do with the election in five months? no. five months ago newt gingrich was surging to the lead in the national polls in the republican party. five months ago kim jong-il was still the dictator in north korea. five months ago we didn't know who was going to win the super bowl. this is an important election for the people who live there and it's important for the two parties. but it has no predictive capacity for november. come on, the last republican to carry wisconsin, presidential election was ronald reagan. if anybody thinks mitt romney is another ronald reagan i want a case of what you're drinking. >> david gergen, join the conversation. as paul makes that case, david, he certainly can make that case. five months is an eternity. the last republican was ronald reagan and yet, we do know in key demographic groups especially white, blue-collar workers, down scale workers, the

midwest in particular, older voters also, a key con sitwensy in wisconsin, they are trending to republicans in national elections. the question is, is it trending fast enough for mitt romney come november? i think that's an open question tonight. but i would challenge paul's analysis just a tad. even though i know he's quite smart. >> i agree with you, john. i think there are two implications of this tonight. one is what it does for november. and i think that any serious observer would have to say that a state that looked like it was leaning toward obama now must be counted as undecided. that anything can happen in wisconsin and perhaps even in michigan. but there's a second part of this we haven't talked about at all. this election was centrally about the power of public employee unions. scott walker tried to cut -- curtail those unions, and in the name of trying to balance a budget. that's when this huge ertion occurred against him. he's one of the republican governors who had been out on the point on this issue about whether there are excesses in public employee unions in terms of their pension plans and

health care plans and so forth. this is a very, very hot issue from new york to california and from new jersey to indiana, to ohio, to wisconsin. and this election tonight was well regarded long before by both sides as the second most important election of the year. and here scott walker i must say to a surprise -- given a year ago, it looked like he was going to lose this. tonight, to win, is a substantial defeat for labor, public employee unions, and a substantial victory for those who have been trying to curb that. >> david, you make a key point. i want to show our exit poll data on this question. the defining question that started the whole recall debate. in the end there were other debates about ethics, debates about jobs, debates about unemployment. what started this was governor walker's successful efforts to restrict collective bargaining rights and to make public employees pay more for their health care, pay more for their pensions. look at this electorate today. this is fascinating. 38% strongly approve of what the governor did, eliminating those

benefits. watch what happened. 96% of those voters voted for -- to keep their republican governor. 37% strongly disapprove. you see the polarized electorate here. watch this, 97% of those voters voted for the democratic challenger. so this election was decided, as most are, in the middle. i will say in the polarized climate it's a small middle. somewhat approve, 12%. watch what happens here, governor walker won that by a big margin there. that is critical. you get to somewhat disapprove, 12% here. here you have mayor barrett winning in that constituency. you have the sharply polarized electorate. dana bash, the walker campaign, as we wait to hear the governor himself speak, i assume they will read this as a mandate. even though we expect the final result to be relatively close, as a mandate to continue just what they're doing. >> reporter: oh, there's no question about it. i think to be honest with you, no matter how this turned out,

they would consider this a mandate to continue doing what they're doing. that's just the way things are on the ground here. people who are so emphatic against scott walker, they're going to keep being that way. but the interesting point that you were talking about with david gergen, john, is that yes, this whole issue started, all the problems for scott walker politically, perhaps, maybe the benefits for him as well, back when he had union issues about collective bargaining rights about 16 months ago. but in recent days and weeks, that has not been the conversation between these candidates. it has not been the conversation on the ground, it's been more specific information about general issues. >> i'm going to ask everybody to stand by for just one second as we prepare to make another projecti projection. cnn can now project rebecca kleefisch, the republican lieutenant governor, she was also on the recall ballot. she will keep her job as well.

you have the republican governor and the republican lieutenant governor surviving the recall challenge. we'll watch the results. is gloria borger ready to join the conversation? is she with us yet? >> yes, i am. >> so, gloria, you have here all this money spent. you have the democrats especially labor saying this was a test run, this was a key test of labor's credibility and the chairwoman of the democratic party debbie wasserman schultz, saying it was a test run for november. safe to say they flunked that test? >> yeah, it is safe to say. look, this is a measure of intensity and enthusiasm among democrats and also among independent voters. and it's a measure of the strength of the labor party movement. and i would have to say when you look at this and you can say, okay, what are the concrete results that this is going to tell us about november? this is a psychological boost for the republican party. they're going to say it's a lot more, but at the very least it's a psychological boost. i mean, you were talking earlier about president obama's numbers. and in these exit polls that you

were talking about, he is up 11 points over mitt romney in this state of wisconsin. who's better able to manage the economy? barack obama is up over mitt romney in the state of wisconsin by eight points. also by about a dozen points these voters said that president obama cares more about the middle class. but what this tells you is that republicans organized at the grass roots level in the state of wisconsin. they outspent democrats by more than two to one. and when they do that, and when they organize and they have a lot of money behind them, they can win. >> gloria, thanks. dana, ari, paul, gloria, everybody stick around. much more ahead from wisconsin including we're waiting there, you see the picture on your screen, scott walker is the winner. he will remain the governor of wisconsin. the republican governor expected to speak any moment. we'll discuss what that might mean looking ahead. we'll look at the electoral map ahead to november. the republican governor and his lieutenant governor surviving a recall election.

we'll be back in a moment.

we're following in wisconsin now. cnn now projecting wisconsin governor scott walker will win the recall vote. that means he's going to keep his job. we expect him to speak at any moment. and rebecca kleefisch will win her recall election.

walker's challenger was democrat tom barrett. he's the mayor of milwaukee. this is being watched closely for what it might mean for the presidential election in november. we'll play out some scenarios. you see with 41% of the vote counted, scott walker winning by 19 points right now. the exit polls showed a narrow win. we'll see if that narrows as more democratic votes come in. but if you look at the state, again, mostly red. that tells you one thing right there. the republican is winning. here's another reason. in the main democratic areas, dane county, right, that's about 8% of the state population, governor barrett is getting 63% here. you might think that's great. 2010 election, same race, he's up at 68%. he's underperforming where he was two years ago. come back to 2012 we'll show you some republican counties. this is the biggest one for republicans. this is the milwaukee suburbs. waukesha county, governor walker right now overperforming by a small margin what he did two years ago. so there's one test of what's happening tonight.

republicans on the ground turns out their voters and overperforming while the democrats are underperforming. here's the map that cnn projects right now. president obama at 247 electoral votes. those are the solid blue and light blue states. solid democrat or leaning democrat. governor romney at 206 the dark red solid. the light red leaning romney. as you see, we have wisconsin tonight as leaning obama. in the exit polls tonight, ari fleischer, the voters say they are inclined at least if the election were today, president obama would have won among those who turned out by a decent margin. do we keep this light blue in your view or do you say, no, move it? >> wisconsin always was going to be a battleground state. but in 2000, george bush lost it by only 5,000 votes. it was really a tie. among 2.5 million votes cast. and in 2004, he lost it by 11,000 votes. among almost 3 million votes cast. so wisconsin is an extraordinarily close

battleground state. i have a hard time seeing big labor returning to wisconsin this fall and putting in a lot of effort for obama since he didn't show up there for them this year. >> such a great point. forgive me for interrupting, but that is such a great point. go ahead. >> one other issue. i think we have to throw out the exit polls about obama/romney because this exit poll doesn't even seem to be right about walker/barrett. we have to see the follow-up result, actual tally. looks like the top line numbers are way off. >> the exit poll numbers do seem to be off. sometimes things change. but ari raises a key point. i'm going to make wisconsin the toss-up. that makes it a closer race. ari makes a fascinating point about whether labor will do unto president obama you might say as he just did unto them. did the president make a mistake? he's the leader of the party. maybe he was worried this would damage him in november. maybe he was worried he'd have his fingerprints on an embarrassing loss. as the leader of the democratic party, did he owe it to the voters of wisconsin to go out there and try to turn out the vote?

>> certainly. of course. and he owed it to tom barrett. barrett was the mayor of milwaukee. he came out in the primaries and endorsed then senator obama against senator clinton. he also owes it to himself and to everybody else he's going to have to deal with. this was a mistake. i have to say. the president should have been out there. i don't think it would have made the difference, okay? let me be clear about that. but it's kind of like thanksgiving at your in-laws. if you go, it doesn't guarantee it's going to be fun. if you don't go, there's going to be hell to pay. i know he loves his mother-in-law and she lives in the white house. but you know what i mean. >> keep them close. i'll leave it at that as we go. david gergen, if you look at the map, i don't think we're quite ready to do this yet. we want to look at more data. if we do move h.i.p. thypotheti wisconsin to a toss-up column. we'll study it more. then you have a narrow gap here. my question is if wisconsin is in play what we're seeing in the

rust belt republicans proving they can get the key constituencies and does that mean we should rethink michigan and pennsylvania or is it just wisconsin? >> a very good question, john. i think at the very minimum you would have to rethink michigan. and, you know, president obama's strength has been in the east, on the east coast and west coast and the upper midwest. tonight's results do put into play the question of whether the upper midwest is actually more vulnerable than it looks. to go back to both paul and ari's points, i would assume if you're sitting there in obama's chair and you're running his campaign, you have to believe now that you're going to have to spend some money in wisconsin. to protect yourself. that, i think paul begala was right. if the president had gone in and been loyal to labor, i think labor would be more loyal to him. whether he can count on them under these circumstances i'm not sure. >> dan, as we wait for governor walker at that event, reince priebus, who at the moment is

the challenge of the republican committee, he has to be very happy tonight. does he believe what happened tonight translates into november? i'm sure it's personal to him, that he would love to be the republican chairman who put his state back in the republican column for first time since 1984. >> i asked him that -- excuse me, that very question just a few minutes ago when he was here. of course the answer was yes. he does believe that this puts republicans back in play in his home state of wisconsin. if nothing else, as we talked about earlier, because of infrastructure. the fact of the matter is that republicans, because of this recall, have built a pretty impressive infrastructure here. they've had 25 so-called victory centers across the state. they generally have something along those lines by the time you get to the fall. but now it's in place in the early summer. that really, really helps the republicans. also with just voter id. we talked about the money spent and there wasn't a lot of money focussed on undecided because there weren't very many.

that money was spent on voters making sure they knew exactly how to get to potential republican voters that will help them. again, whether that is going to translate into passion for mitt romney or against barack obama the way the passion has been really, really fiery here for and against scott walker, that's another question. >> passion behind you in the room as they await governor walker. gloria, paul made an excellent point earlier. the democrats will say they were outspent seven to one. paul made an important point about a look around the world, not just the united states. this is a tough time to be an incumbent when you have a tough economy. governor walker survives this. we can debate about what happens 154 days from now in the presidential election, but what happens in the next days and weeks when politicians, whether it's the governor or united states congress, start to deal with these tough budget issues? do they get a lesson out of this? >> well, you know, if you're someone like governor john kasich of ohio you might be breathing a little easier tonight. because he dealt with a collective bargaining issue in his state. i think all governors are going to have to take a look at this and say how dangerous is this

for me as i take a look at paring down my state budget. but don't forget, you're also in an election year. unions, while defeated, while labor was defeated in the state of wisconsin, it doesn't mean they're going to be defeated everywhere. but i do think this is a lesson in ground organizing and money. two things that are so important to win campaigns. and i think what you saw the republicans in the state of wisconsin do is raise a lot of money, take a huge amount of outside money. i mean, there was $62 million spent in this state. most of it came from outside the state because people were looking at this as a test case. but when you have money and when you have organization, you might be able to do just about anything. and i think walker at one point was really down in the polls and you saw him have a comeback here because he had the support of the republican party. and to paul's point, president

obama decided for whatever reason not to come into this state anymore than with a tweet, right? he tweeted his support for barrett, but did little more than that. >> tweet not the same as a personal appearance. i just wanted, before we break, look at the latest vote. 47% of the vote now in. governor walker with 48%. challenger with 41%. cnn is projecting that governor walker will keep his job along with his lieutenant governor, rebecca kleefisch. we're awaiting governor walker to speak. very excited crowd for him in waukesha, wisconsin. we'll bring it to you live when it happens.

scott walker will keep his job as the republican governor of wisconsin. we're waiting for the governor to take the sfaj. we'll bring his victory speech to you live just ahead on 360. hg enemies in their sleep, you'd be targeting stocks to trade. well, that's what trade architect's heat maps do. they make you a trading assassin. trade architect. td ameritrade's empowering, web-based trading platform. trade commission-free for 60 days, and we'll throw in up to $600 when you open an account.

seeing live pictures there. that's scott walker. the republican governor of

wisconsin. that is his event's campaign headquarters in waukesha, wisconsin. he will win, and as we await governor walker speaking, we have reaction from mitt romney. let me look down -- excuse me for looking down to read his statement. i congratulate scott walker on his victory in wisconsin. governor walker has demonstrated over the past year what sound fiscal policies can do to turn an economy around. i believe in november voters across the country will demonstrate they want the same results in washington, d.c. governor romney saying there he believes tonight is a message to the voters not only in wisconsin but nationally. look at the results right there. with 52% of the vote, scott walker getting 58%. tom barrett, mayor of milwaukee, at 41% right now. exit polls showed a closer race. we'll see if the race gets closer as it comes in. as i prepare to bring back in our panel, i want to show something fascinating from the exit polls. tens of millions of dollars spent. some of it was on the turnout operation. a lot of it was on campaign ads.

only 4% of the voters said they decided today. only 4 more in the last few days. 5% in the month of may. this is when you see the late campaign ads. 13% of the electorate. 86% of the electorate decided before the month of may. that's how they broke down. let's go back to ari fleischer. democratic strategist paul begala, an adviser for the pro obama super pac priorities usa action. also with us political analyst gloria borger and david gergen. paul, i want to start with you first. i know you're going do say democrats were outspent seven to one, that was a part in this. you're working with a super pac yourself. when you look at these numbers and nearly 90%, nearly 90% decided weeks ago, does that change the strategy about spending money? >> no. no. i mean, napoleon said god is on the side of the big battalions. you know what? god is usually on the side of the big budgets, too.

most elections, the middle is slightly smaller today, the undecided. but most elections in america or in most states come down to that last 10% or so who make up their minds in the last month. 40%, 45% of us go to each of our partisan corners right away. we fight over the last 10% to 20%. that's what happened in wisconsin. it may mean if that 10 keeps shrinking that you have to spend your money on turning out the base which i think both parties dit in this case as well. but, you know, it's -- you cannot unilaterally disarm. democrats were outspent seven to one, democrats lost, i think there's a connection. >> david gergen, i want you to help me with this as we look at more of the exit polls. vote by income. this is a race that started about union collective bargaining. in the, the end, the democrats said governor walker was not only wrong on the union, but he was wrong about jobs. yet, look at this. middle class voter, 50,000 to $75,000 a year, 25% of the electorate. the incumbent wins. narrowly, but wins along the middle class.

over here, more down scale voters, $30,000 to 50,0$50,000, of the electorate. again, a split in a piece of the electorate that should go for the democratic mayor, tom barrett. scott walker splits. badly trailing there. and you go to the higher income, governor walker winning the constituency. the incumbent did so well when the coampaign was about unions and jobs, what does that tell you? >> it's very, very important. yes, money counts. yes, ground game counts. both paul and gloria are right about that. but so do fundamental ideas. they matter in politics. that's how conservative ronald reagan got elected. conservatives have been battling here, arguing that the public employee unions have engaged in excesses that need to be cut back. i was out in wisconsin, spent a couple of days out there a couple of weeks ago, john. i can tell you a lot of people, small business people in particular, were talking about that these unions were costing

too much money. it was not about the ads. it was not about the ground game. people just decided they couldn't afford it. that's what's really been at stake here. i think in this election. it's an important set of controversies going on in many states around the country. and i don't deny that money and ground game matter. but i really think the ideas and what -- and how people feel about what's going on in their lives and in their states matters a lot, too. >> critical point from david gergen. we ask everybody to stand by. we're awaiting to hear from the big winner tonight, scott walker of wisconsin. but as we wait, let's get to some other stories we're following tonight. isha sesay joins us. >> the white house says al qaeda's number two man is dead. u.s. officials say abu yahya al libi was killed by a cia drone strike in pakistan. al libi frequently appeared in video on jihadist websites and played a pretty cal role in the

group oes planning around the west. the syrian government says it will allow the united nations into the country to deliver aid. but bashar al assad's government said it's expelling diplomats from 11 nations. they expelled some last week in response to the massacre in houla. residents there say regime forces have kept the town from basic necessities. nigerian officials have suspended a license in the wake of a plane crash. seven u.s. citizens were killed in the crash including the pilot. and a once in a lifetime event in the solar system happening tonight. it's called a transit of venus when the planet crosses between the earth and the sun appearing as a black dot as you see on your screens. it won't happen again until 2117. if you can see it, get out there with some eye protection. >> we'll both be back when it comes back in 100 years. we'll be here. >> possibly. >> lower case "p" on that possibly. we're still waiting to hear from

scott walker. he's the republican governor of wisconsin. he's the big winner tonight. when ""360" continues, more conversation about the results, what they mean for wisconsin and the nation. medicare supplement insurance card, too. medicare is one of the great things about turning 65, but it doesn't cover everything. in fact, it only pays up to 80% of your part b expenses. if you're already on or eligible for medicare, call now to find out how an aarp... medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company, helps cover some of the medical expenses... not paid by medicare part b. that can save you from paying up to thousands of dollars... out of your own pocket. these are the only medicare supplement insurance plans... exclusively endorsed by aarp. when you call now, you'll get this free information kit... with all you need to enroll. put their trust in aarp medicare supplement insurance. plus you'll get this free guide to understanding medicare. the prices are competitive.

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get help paying for what medicare doesn't... and save up to thousands of dollars. call this toll-free number now. cnn projects governor scott walker will keep his job in wisconsin. he just received a congratulatory phone call from mitt romney. he's expected to speak ahead.

we're waiting to hear from scott walker. he is the big winner tonight. the republican governor of wisconsin surviving a recall challenge. his republican lieutenant governor surviving as well. you see the republican celebration right there. we're waiting for governor walker due to speak any moment. let's take a look at results as they come in. 59% of the vote now counted, governor walker with 57%. tom barrett, the democratic mayor of milwaukee, he's at 42%. if you look at the map as it's filling in, it is filling in red big time. republicans doing what they need

to do. governor walker above 70%. critical there. the key democratic counties in the middle of the state, madison, the capital, dane county, 65% for mayor barrett. you would think that would be a good result. he needs to be about 70% in a close statewide election. at the moment he's underperforming which is why we project the republican, scott walker, will win. ted rowlands is getting reaction to governor walker's win tonight. ted, what are you hearing? >> reporter: john, a little different story here than what you're seeing in milwaukee. people here are very upset as you could imagine here. a lot of people have poured their lives into this recall effort over the past 16 months. some people are a little angry. but we have seen some people crying as well. we interviewed one gentleman who said that he's been working for the entire 16 months and he broke down and cried. right now, you can see it's a bit of a festive atmosphere. but also a bit of anger here and people saying they're angry because they feel like this

election was bought. bought by out of state money. that came in here. i don't know if you can hear me, but you can hear a lot of people still milling around the capital here. they all know their efforts came up short and that scott walker is still the governor of wisconsin. >> ted, i'm smiling here. i don't mean to smile at your being uncomfortable. that is democracy in action. we would like even as they protest to get a chance to hear from you. can we play that for our viewers? we don't have it. all right, we'll have it later. ted rowlands in a feisty crowd there. let's bring back our panel, ari fleischer, paul begala an adviser to the pro obama super pac. and gloria borger, david gergen with us. this was a key question, all this money goes in. i want to go back in time. i just want to ask -- then i'll go to gloria first on this one. i'm going back. this is the 2010 election and you come over to the governor

election. gloria, dane county is the big one here. 68%. i'm going to write that on the map here. 68% in the county for the democrats. then i want to come back down here and i want to pick another county. eau claire county. democrats carrying this. it's a small county. 50% to 49%. a swing county. remember, the democrats carried this two years ago. come back again and i want to pick one more -- two more. i'm going to pick this brown county near green bay. 56% what governor walker is getting tonight. let's write that in here. then one last one, thank you for your patience, folks. waukesha county outside of wisconsin. let's remember, 72% governor walker got two years ago. when you have a rematch, that's what we have tonight. walker was the candidate two years ago. barrett was the challenger. you come back out, you fast forward to 2012, come back to the state, let's look at what's happening. this was a democratic county. this was a swing county. this was a democratic county with 29% of the vote in. the republican is winning tonight. that's one reason scott walker has won re-election. he is more competitive here. 68% for the democrats when they lost here. they're underperforming in this

key county with 62% of the vote in. that's why you lose again, because you're underperforming. come up here to brown county in green bay, 56% for the republicans two years ago. 59% this year. this is how you win an election, folks, you turn out more people and build on your performance. and again, the biggest county for republicans, waukesha county, 72% two years ago, 73% now. gloria borger, if you're the republicans and you're saying this was a test run for your technology, this was a test run for your new turnout plan, those numbers have you smiling. >> those numbers have you smiling because it worked. look, at a macro level this tells you that at a state level, people are more receptive to an aggressive, conservative -- conservatism that calls for budget cutting, that calms for taking on collective bargaining when it comes to public employee unions. that's the big picture. the small picture here is that when its comes to organizing, republicans learned how to do it in the state of wisconsin.

they coordinated. the republican governor's association, for example, which has a great stake in the outcome of this, given the amount of conservative governors who are trying to do the same thing that scott walker did, they poured in $9 million into this campaign alone. they coordinated with other republican groups and they organized. and that is what president obama's campaign is known for. which is organizing at the grass roots level and that's what republicans did here. and that's one of the lessons to take away from it. i agree with david gergen that there's a big picture here. but there's also an important small picture here which is turning out voters is what really matters. >> all right, gloria borger. as you see the republican governor rebecca kleefisch spoke just a few moments ago. we're waiting to hear from scott walker. as we do, ted rowland was drowned out earlier.

but before we brought lihim on,e spoke to a voter who underscored his disappointment tonight. >> mike, you voted today. you say you're disappointed. a lot of folks outside the capitol sharing your opinion tonight. >> we're not disappointed. this is the end of democracy. we just got outspent $34 million to $4 million. this was the biggest election in america. i hope you keep me on tonight because this hurts us all. every single one of you out there in the nation if you're watching, democracy died tonight. >> you're very emotional. >> i'm very emotional because we all had a lot invested in this. this was it. if we didn't win tonight, the end of the usa as we know it just happened. that's it. we just got outspent $34 million to $4 million. and we don't have any other resource left but the people you see here behind me. and if the people you see here behind me can't get it done tonight, it's done. democracy is dead. >> emotional testimony there, reaction from that blue-collar voter with ted rowlands. paul begala, i want to get your

reaction as a democrat, as someone who was involved in this spending. democrats were outspent big time tonight. as i do so i want to show you something else in the exit polls. we think our exit polls may have undercounted the republican vote a bit. they showed the race to be closer than it appears to be right now. even with that qualifier, paul, if someone in your household, a union member, 67%. two-thirds said no, no union members. let's try to get this to come out here. the republican candidate, the republican winner, scott walker, that's no surprise. the non-union house holds. here's what surprised me. if you look at is someone in your household a union member, remember, this all started because of the collective bargaining dispute. look at these numbers. might have to punch it twice. there it is there. governor walker getting more than a third. 36% of the union household vote. what does that tell you if a number of blue-collar union voters, more than a third of the them, in a big dispute that was about collective bargaining, are voting for the republican governor? >> that's a remarkable thing. you're exactly right to pull it up and highlight it.

a union member who votes for scott walker is like a chicken voting for colonel sanders. he did not mislead anybody about his agenda. he succeeded in taking away the right to collective bargaining. not just cutting the pensions and their pay, which the unions agreed to. but he took away their right to collective bargain. and he has now succeeded. i think in part because of this mindset we have now in our national dialogue. see, it's okay to scapegoat public employees or to bash teachers and cops and firefighters and public servants. but if you turn and criticize, oh, say, mitt romney and millionaires who buy companies, loot the pensions and lay everybody off, that's class warfare. it ought to work both ways. we're not in this ditch because of teachers, cops and firefighters. it's not unions that bankrupted america. if people say that, it's class

warfare. it's not unions that bankrupted america. we can bash the public employees all we want, that's okay. i think that's what we're seeing in the results here. >> i think we'll see a divide like this coming up in 154 days. republican governor scott walker expected to speak at any moment.

welcome back. live pictures here of the victory party. that's in waukesha, wisconsin. the republican governor scott walker due to speak momentarily. he's won a big win tonight. defeating his democratic rival in a recall election. that means governor walker will get to complete his term. let's look at the results as we now have them. 65% of the vote counted. governor walker with 58% of the

vote. the democratic mayor of milwaukee, tom barrett, with 41% of the vote. that's with 65% of the vote in. this was a rematch of a race two years ago. governor walker won narrowly then. at the moment he's winning by a bigger margin now. the question is as we bring back our panel, what does what happened in wisconsin tonight mean for the election as we head on to november? as i bring up the electoral college map, let's go to dana bash at walker headquarters in wisconsin. arifleische rerk arifleischer, the former press secretary for george w. bush. and paul begala. and also with us, gloria borger and david gergen. so dana, i want to go to you on the scene first in the sense that if you look at an electoral map that we start with president obama at 247 and governor romney at 206. the question has been is this the final map? these yellow states there are toss-ups or are there thinks in anybody's armor? at least for the moment it is possible we have found a ching in the democratic armor there.

as we talk to republicans do they think, yes, this puts wisconsin in play. i know republicans want to say that. do they think outside wisconsin it means anything in like minded states along the rust best? >> reporter: you know, the honest answer they will give is they're not sure but they hope so. i think a lot of it is for the reason that david gergen was just talking about when we talk about the issues. they are very much hoping that this is a harbinger of november when it comes to what people really care about and are upset about. very much like we saw in 2010. about the big spending and about the battle of ideas, slashing government spending versus democrats who are, many of them, concerned that the cuts are too deep. which is effectively the debate we saw here. if republicans can make the argument that you need to keep the republican ideals in check, that is definitely going to prevail in other states. but states like michigan, which you have been talking about, has

been really reliably democrat in the past several presidential elections. unclear. i think the state to look at when you talk about that question is the state of ohio. and whether or not this in terms of the rust belt kind of voter means something for ohio. >> david gergen, you were talking earlier about, yes, there's a lot of money, everything else involved. in the end politics is is about policy. if ideas were a big factor in the equation tonight, what should governor romney learn when he goes back to wisconsin next time, when he goes to ohio or when he goes to michigan, when he goes to pennsylvania or anywhere else. is there a lesson for mitt romney? is there something in his message that he should and could change because of what happened tonight in wisconsin? >> i certainly think he can certainly give voice to a lot of the restlessness and resentments and that sort of thing that are stirring against some of the excesses in labor unions. but what i do hope he does not do is declare war on public employee unions. i think that would be a terrible mistake. there are some things that need to be fixed but we don't need a war.

i happen to believe in collective bargaining. but i just want to point this back out to paul and others with regard to the union members. those 36% who said that they -- you know, they went for walker. since this law was passed, these reforms were passed, these laws said that if a union represents your unit in government, you don't -- you no longer have to belong to that union and you no longer have to pay dues to that union. it's been reported by "the wall street journal" that over half of the members of the second largest union in wisconsin, and that is the federal and state local employees, they have left their union since these laws were passed. there is something out there that goes beyond money and organization. there is something stirring in the country about what's happening at the state and local level. i just think we have to take account of it. >> ari fleischer, as the republican in the group, if you're the romney campaign and you're scrubbing this tonight trying to figure out what's the lesson, what is it?

>> a couple of things. number one, if you go back to what's happened since president obama was elected, really an anti-bush, anti-iraq mood of the country and a surge for president obama, he has not had any good domestic election results since. 2009 both virginia and new jersey went from a democratic governor to republican. 2010, of course, scott brown took ted kennedy's seat in massachusetts. 2010, congressional election the biggest republican midterm win in 78 years. even anthony weiner's seat, overwhelmingly democratic house seat in queens, new york, went republican. now this. very bad string of political news for president obama on the domestic front. election after election, year after year. >> dana bash, ari, paul begala, gloria borger, dana bash, thank you. thanks for watching. thanks for watching. "early start" is next. -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com

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a big slap in the face for the runner-up in the wisconsin recall election for governor. literally a woman slaps milwaukee mayor tom barrett across the cheek. what happened next, straight ahead. >> plus, we'll break down the actual election results for you. also talk about the historical significance of governor scott walker's win and what it means in the race for the white house. and some stunning pictures from nasa of the planet venus crossing in front of the sun. the last time we'll see this happen in all of our