that is where the good news ends for the romney jobs claim. since 1939 only 27% of monthly jobs reports have shown growth of 250,000 jobs or more. the research also notes the united states has never had four straight years where job creation was above a quarter of million a month. the longest stretch was only 11 months during the reagan years, september of 1983 until july of 1984. and then there is this reality. even if mitt romney created 12 million jobs we would still be in the hole. here is why. this country needs to create about 125,000 jobs a month just to keep up with population growth. we are talking about things like young people entering the workforce. that totals to 6 million jobs needed in a four-year term. that keeps you even with demographics. and then the situation we are in. jp morgan estimates we need 8 million jobs to make up for people who lost jobs during the financial crisis and still have them and people who gave up

trying for a job but would come back looking for work as soon as the economy turned up. the bottom line on the math mitt romney needs to create 14 million jobs just to get us back to even. in his first term. that is pretty grim. 12 is hard to get to. 12 isn't even enough. it may not matter who is president come january. great jobs booms come with great moments. like the tech boom on the 19 1990s. we are on the cusp right now of a massive boom and wealth. we could be energy independent in years. that could kree create a lot of jobs. the question is aside from something like that will mitt's policies deliver the magic 12 million number when history shows it is a tall order. outfront paul hickey and alex grill, and michael etlinger. let me start with you, paul.

this claim of 12 million jobs. you spent a lot of time looking at the history and the research they were studying was yours. >> it is a very tall order. the last time we had it was in the '90s. think about the '90s. we had a republican in office and a democrat in office and different control of congress. it is not necessarily the person in office that creates the jobs. it is what goes on around the economy. what the president does is helps foster that growth and support it or not support it. and on both sides of the aisle you have the argument that president obama is antibusiness or mr. romney is pro business. it's one of the things where we have a lot of unsure. the economy is unsure now. and it creates a lot of confusion. >> a lot of partisan point of view. let me ask you this question. when he puts out specific numbers, this is tough. people want specific numbers for

people running for president. does he box himself into a corner with the 12 million number? i'm thinking about barack obama's promise of if you take my stimulus the unemployment rate will never go above 8% and it went over 10%. he has never gotten over that. >> that is right. there is certainly a risk and the experience of current president obama. we can't get below 8% and he promised not to go above that number. there is the risk for governor romney. the question is how big a claim is this? how close to this could we get if we had a strong economic growth? i agree with what paul said. it is not just about the president's policies but what congress does and that leadership is a contributing factor. i believe some of the policies, that are outlined in that op-ed

that you are pointing to, other things that governor romney said on the campaign trail are consistent with promoting economic growth, getting us in that direction. i think tax reform alone creating a level playing field lowering marginal tax rates, not by cutting taxes, actually a revenue neutral tax reform, is the kind of change that a president could advocate that would be consistent with creating more jobs. >> revenue neutral tax reform is another can of worms. i know that is a big question. let me ask you this. barack obama is not thought of by most americans as someone who has created jobs. he is still in the hole. he hasn't created as many as were lost. he has added 4.4 million private sector jobs. i think that could surprise a lot of people. i guess i'm making the argument. once you start going you can really create a lot of jobs. >> i mean i actually don't think that there is any problem with the target that governor romney has set or that glen hubbard has set. we have had many months where we

have created more than 200,000 private sector jobs. in this recovery. >> six months. >> about half of the historical average. historically about 40% have over 200,000. so far during president obama's term we had half that rate. go ahead, michael. sorry. >> so yeah, paul's right. it's been six months. since we hit the bottom and since president obama's policies started having an impact in the middle of 2009 we created millions and millions of private sector jobs. my main point is, i don't have an objection to romney saying he wants to create 12 million jobs. i just think to answer alex, i think his policies just aren't aiming at the target. and i think that's a much bigger problem. i think his policies remind us of president bush's policies, and they were failures in terms of creating growth and job creation.

it's not surprising glen hubbard was of course president bush's top economics guy at the time the bush tax cuts pazed. he promised a miracle then and is doing the same now which isn't that surprising. >> what i'm curious about is he is putting this 12 million number out which seems you lick your finger and put it in the air. it's informed but it's kind of what it is. he is betting on this tax reform being neutral. which you brought up. i'm curious how he gets there. he cuts taxes for wealthy americans and he is going to broaden the base. people who earn the least will start paying taxes for the first time. how will what they pay makes up for a 20% tax cut because it seems like the whole argument rests on that being true? >> that is not how i would describe the framework. when he says tax revenue neutral tax reform and lowering tax rates and if your question is how that is possible, we need to keep in mind that only some of the dollars we earn are taxed by

the tax code. obviously we have a system that's very progressive. a lot of low and moderate income individuals that don't pay federal income tax. but even well-to-do americans are claiming tremendous numbers of deductions. by reforming some of these tax expenditures, by reforming or repealing some of these we can broaden the tax base which permits us to lower the rates. this is what we saw on the simpson bowls report. that is the framework i understand. that governor romney is promoting. >> hopefully he will come out with specifics on which he will close. obviously closing the mortgage interest deductions, people might hate him for it. it might be the right thing to do. thanks for all of you. we appreciate it. "outfront" next, an attack on mitt romney, straight from, not the tortoise's mouth, the horse's mouth. you thought it was a bad few

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dressage day at the olympics. romney's horse was out front and

center. rafalca, it sounds like some kind of a vegetable that was not very good, and her rider danced their way into 13th place. it does not mean that she is out. she may be in. they find out tomorrow if they move to the next round. dressage is an expensive sport. the liberal group wants voters to hear negative things. moveon.org. >> my name is rafalca. how do i pull off such grace while looking so good? maybe because the romney's spend $77,000 a year on my upkeep and after mitt romney repeels health care and ships your jobs overseas, i daresay your life will won't be nearly as pampered as mean. >> so ridiculous.

it is true the romneys have an expensive horse. move on. you are spending five figures on that ad. they wouldn't say whether the five figures was $10,000 or maybe $70,000 like the romneys' horse which they say is greater than the average american income. i mean that really does take the cake or i don't know what the right dressage term would be. does this kind of thing work for anything other than a fall? >> it is a funny ad. it is making a serious political point. for decades the republicans have been very successful of coupling elitest economics with populous social approach. a social populism. think of how they went after poor john kerry with his wind surfing. this is the first time we have an upper crust economics coupled

with very traditional -- >> it is okay when you are a liberal and not when you are a republican? >> it makes wind surfing look like the national past time. that's the problem here, right? the reason these negative narratives work is because they rip off reality. you have the coincidence of the romneys' horse in the olympics. the key note is not just the talking horse, it is $77,000. when people hear that they say that is larger than the average household income. that becomes serious. >> moveon.org wouldn't say how much they spent for the ad. and i'm frustrated. >> this is so frustrating. not only is it a double standard but do you hear this? it's ridiculous. jacqueline kennedy made middle berg the washington retreat so she could ride. it was glamorous and elegant

according to the media. lyndon johnson gave caroline a pony named macaroni and it was adorable. here in this case, ann romney rides these horses as part of her therapy for m.s. and they're challenging it and using it in an ad. it's not what politics should be about it's frustrating and deceptive. >> in this country we say that every poll situation says they were born in a log cabin that they built themselves. >> not everyone is lucky enough to have been born in hope, arkansas. >> people love success and respect success and willing to elect wealthy people. but they want those people to be fighting for them. and the problem here is that the democrats are simultaneously making the argument about taxes and economic policy and that's what makes it much harder. i will make a confession. until two weeks ago i didn't know there was a sport of dressage. >> i'm not sure what it is. it sounds like dress your horse up.

i want to get to something that mitt romney said tonight that was unbelievable. it does seem that it is a double standard. mitt romney has this horse. barack obama raises money from the private equity titans while slamming mitt romney for being a private equity guy. >> and the fundraiser which is about the most tone deaf thing you can do as a democrat imaginable. it does stick. it does riff off these larger narratives and stereotypes. the facts of his extraordinary success. in private equity. now i want to get to this. this is something that mitt romney has just said. so harry reid came out. as you all may know and he said he hasn't paid taxes for ten years. it got mitt mad. >> it's time for harry to put up or shut up. harry is going to have to describe who it is he spoke with because that is totally and completely wrong.

it's untrue, dishonest and inaccurate. it is wrong. so i'm looking forward to have harry reveal his sources and we'll probably find out it is the white house. >> i guess you would say to mitt romney, too, put up or shut up. if you put your taxes out harry reid would have to quote, unquote, shut up. >> because he hasn't put the taxes out there is nothing preventing his opponents to bring it up. in new and creative ways. so he's in a bit of a political spot here that may last until november. >> you know what, mitt? if they're wrong, it's going to be great. put them out and you'll be the high horse. i'm sorry. i didn't mean to do it. >> we didn't really say that. still "outfront," you heard last night on this show breaking news that the psychiatrist went to authorities and tried to warn them that her patient had been threatening horrible things. why did the warnings not produce action?

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we start the second half of our show with stories we care about where we focus on our reporting from the front lines. first kofi annan has resigned. we got a look at his op-he had in tomorrow's "financial times." he says the distribution of force in syrian society are such that only a serious negotiated political transition can hope to end the oppressive rule of the

past and avoid a future descent into a vengful war. a trading firm announces they are taking a $440 million loss after a software glitch caused the company to bring numerous bad sales. $440 million matters to this company, over three times more than they earned last year and the firm says it is exploring alternatives. that means that could have to sell themselves. u.s. sanctions against iran are costing $133 million a day. this is an analysis from bloomberg which shows shipments have dropped by 52% since the sanctions began on july 1st. estimates iran's oil export revenues are likely to fall from $108 billion last year to about 70 billion this year.

70 billion still means a lot of people around the world are buying iranian oil. facebook shares dipped below $20 today. the company is trying new things to try to get people engaged. they launched a new website called facebook stories which is a way to showcase user's stories and ideas. there will be a new theme for every month. this month's theme is called remembering to try to remember historic buildings or things like that. according to regulatory filings about 83 million facebook accounts have no stories to share. those are the fake ones or duplicates. and those of you who watch this show regularly know we've been asking this question. they say they have 900 million accounts. how many of them are fake? it looks like 100 million. it has been 364 days since this country lost its top credit rating. what are we doing to get it back? i spoke to a states congress man in virginia

i spoke about the credit rating and fiscal cliff. there are things he was down about but one silver lining. >> america is one relatively small budget deal away from economic preem inence decades to come. >> that made us feel good. hope it does you, too. tomorrow you will hear our interview on the one year anniversary of the downgrade. our third story "outfront". al qaeda bomb plot busted in one of spain's biggest operations against al qaeda three suspected members of the terrorist group have been arrested. officials say the three had enough explosives to blow up a bus. and could have been plotting an attack on a joint american-spanish naval base. this comes just days after the state department said affiliate groups of al qaeda are rising in places like like yemen, syria, somalia and egypt. we witnessed first-hand last week and it continues to gain a foothold and northern africa.

"outfront" tonight nick robert son and seth jones. nick, what do you know about these men in spain, where they come from and where they are trained? >> two of them, the ones arrested buld off a bus yesterday believed to have got both al qaeda training at camps in pakistan and afghanistan. believed to have ties to the group responsible for the attack in mumbai attack in 2008. a very deadly attack in india. the third man is turkish. he was arrested today at a house. neargy -- in that apartment police say they found some explosives but sniffer dogs that went in detected a lot of explosives. the other thing about these guys they have been practicing using paragliders and security

authorities are concerned they might have been getting ready for an airborne attack on a joint u.s. spanish military base nearby. >> one of the suspects reportedly had explosives and chemical training. how serious of a risk is this? is this sort of surprising to you that there is anything new in what the training entailed? >> i don't think the plot is surprising. we have seen threats in the u.s. government. threats like this in spain, in the u.k. and other european countries. i think what's important to realize here too, as nick mentioned, at least one of these individuals had train ng pakistan and afghanistan. so there was an international dimension to the training and the operations here which suggest a global nature of the problem. >> and, nick, any sense of how much further this goes? where the investigation is, obviously three people.

but could it go further and what about that question of explosives and what they may have had? >> it may definitely go further. the police have been on the tail of at least two of the guys in spain, security authorities, as well. from other european countries for the past month. so they've been bugging them, trailing them. the apartment they were using where the explosives were found was bugged. there was at least another person involved that we know was involved that was the wife. man that had the apartment where the explosives were being kept. the two arrested left the area in the south of spain and heading north. perhaps authorities believe to france. who are they going to connect with? perhaps we're going to see in the future more arrests in spain. but of course the explosives are missing. they're hidden somewhere. >> what about the issue that nick raised about france? there was the horrible, radical who had shot the jewish children in the face to death.

that horrible story. and just being on the mali border with france as the colonial power where al qaeda affiliates are rising there is a deep antipathy to france. >> france has been the target of strikes to groups in north africa. historically. al qaeda islamic has expressed threats to france. one other thing i just add is we keep saying, administration officials say al qaeda is on the verge of defeat. here we have what looks like a very serious plot that is global in nature and goes to the area of pakistan. where al qaeda is supposed to be defeated. i just don't see it. >> it's an interesting point. people are saying not only was al qaeda not defeated, but spreading to other places. this goes back to the original roots in terms of the training. >> this training may go back many, many years when al qaeda

had training camps inside afghanistan, as well as getting training in pakistan. that group itself focused group has a lot of ideas in common with al qaeda and have talked in the past about spreading going more and taking their attacks more international. we have seen more evidence of that in other countries. there is a concern that perhaps they are using networks created by this organization in france, for example, that exists and perhaps it is this organization going a bit more global. you know, the whole nexus of these groups inside pakistan is not surprising. what concerns european authorities across the north of africa very concerned that

following the arab spring jihadists setting up camps not to attack inside libya but inside europe. >> clearly we saw it last week. in mali. our fourth story "outfront". the biggest drought in half a century hiking up costs on groceries. in fact the drought is impacting the price tag of three-quarters of the food right now. congress controls agriculture in this country. it may not surprise you to hear they're not doing much. in fact, lawmakers left today for one month vacation. dana bash is out front with the story. >> reporter: today pig is tomorrow's bacon. and at hard-hit hog farms, this year's devastating drought is all but certain to mean higher pork prices next year. adding to the cost, lifestock producers are not getting the

federal aid most farmers are. lifestock is not covered by key government programs. why? because of an accounting trick to save money in the farm bill four years ago. congress eliminated federal aid for livestock in 2012. it turned out to be the biggest drought. >> they were playing a gimmick to keep the costs down and so it really bit them in a behind. >> reporter: so now in a mad dash to act before leaving for summer break, the house approved a three $83 million bill to restore four expired programs for livestock, certain trees and farm raised fish. >> our livestock guys take just as much risk as any other farmer or rancher and they need to have protection. in situations like threes. >> but in the senate, democrats refused to pass drought relief before leaving down. why? bare knuckle negotiating. democrats like debbie stabenow

worry. a short-term fix will undermine their long-term five-yoer farm bill, which includes disaster relief and reforms scores of farm programs. >> the optics of congress leaving town with the worst drought in half a century and not doing something. >> not so good. they are in this building. if we get out in the real world that's not what we're hearing from farmers and ranchers. we are hearing farmers and ranchers want us to get our job done. they want us to address disaster assistance. >> reporter: why not pass the five year farm bill? a house speaker admitted he doesn't have the votes. >> the house is pretty well divided. and frankly i haven't seen 218 votes in the middle to pass the farm bill. >> reporter: the senate passed bill is nearly $1 trillion. the majority of the spending $80 billion a year pays for food stamp programs. some democrats say that is not enough and some republicans say it is too much. on farming, the measure

eliminates most direct payments to farmers. replacing them with expanded crop insurance programs. watch dog groups call the programs waste. >> we are looking at a little over $20 billion in the first four years of the program and another $20 billion in this last year. >> just in one year alone. >> just in one year alone. >> i know they went on vacation for five weeks. you were asking somebody a question from michigan. who said no one is upset and doing the full thing before we go. is there real back lash to the fact that they didn't deal with the disaster relief? >> the people who voted against it or decided not to do this in the senate assist the answer to that is no. they say that they have big organizations like the cattle ranchers behind them. in the case of debbie stabenow, who you were talking about she's the senate agriculture chair woman, she is up for re-election in three months. and it's hard to believe that

she would go home without doing anything for those who were really the hardest hit who don't have help from the government right now if she thought it was a political liability. they think ultimately they will be okay but it is still going to be a big fight when they come back. >> a lot of people watching that and everybody around the country being hurt by that right now. "outfront," a disaster of biblical proportions in taiwan. we will show you pictures and the thin line between protecting doctor/ patient privileges. man: there's a cattle guard, take a right. do you have any idea where you're going ? wherever the wind takes me. this is so off course.

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on thursday triggering flooding, shutting down schools and paralyzing air and train services. at least one person was killed in the land slide and chinese officials say a second typhoon can be just as destructive. so china's premier is overseeing disaster prevention measures to avoid loss of life. >> now to uganda where five prisoners are suspected of the ebola virus. i asked how doctors are trying to help ebola from spreading. >> ministry of health just came in to this hospital. they brought three men, two of them were wearing gloves, sitting up and the other one was prone on the bed obviously in great distress. what they do is they take them into this hospital like this. and then they have to spray

them, actually i can see through the fence, spraying all over his face, his body, even the mattress, anything that was in that location where they found the suspected case, has to be disinfected. then they move on to where the health workers are, all in full protective gear and they have to register the patient, taking to a general ward and send a blood test to lake victoria. there they can get a sense whether the person has ebola or not. you can see the level of protection people need to deal with these cases. that's why this outbreak is so crucial to stand out and health officials say the ebola cases could increase so it takes brave workers like that to bring cases in and try and stabilize patients. our fifth story "outfront."

were warning signs ignored? court papers show the accused mass murderer was being treated by a university of colorado psychiatrist. according to cnn affiliate, the psychiatrist was seeing, dr. lynn fenton was so concerned that she referred his case to members of a threat assessment team. now, her warnings on this, crucially, came six weeks before the shooting. the police were never called as a result of that. again, according to kmgh. around the same time, holmes withdrew from the university. but the question now is glaring. could the shooting have been prevented? "outfront" tonight, dr. michael welner along with paul cowen. >> so his psychiatrist went to this threat assessment board and they presumably denied to the to pass this along to law enforcement authorities. at least we know they did not.

when do you know if it's time to break confidentiality of your patient, forget the threat assessment board and go to authorities yourself. >> there are two perspectives, the clinical and forensic perspective. the clinical perspective is if you're treating a patient and you can identify a target, then you inform the target. if you can identify the immediacy of a threat, that's time to get somebody committed to a hospital. the for instance i can perspective is the population. mass shooting, unlike other homicide and other high-risk patients, it's not just a psychiatric issue, and sometimes it's not. it's a social phenomenon. where a person is invested in the idea, what is going to be the social payoff for me becoming a notorious mass murderer and everybody is talking about me on cnn. and why is that important here? because it happens on his clock. which means he could be thinking about it for months. and look, the amount of --

>> so you're saying in those cases, even though clearly there's something very wrong with you. >> you have explosives and the sophistication of booby trapping, he didn't do that overnight. the point is with a mass killer, he decides today is the day. and he may not have made that decision back in june or whereever. it may just have been a risk, but the i am nens of it is something that could not be identify. we learned it became immediate when he made the decision i'm leaving school. i'm going to invest in this alternative life path. >> a quick followup on that. as someone who has done this a lot, people maple threats where people mass shootings, that you don't want to pass them off to a doctor because most of them are not real threats. >> you have to take a threat seriously and you probe it. and it sounds like the psychiatrist from everything we've learned actually handled it quite responsibly and in fact

she may have had so much vigilance that people felt she was being an alarmist. >> what about that question? there will be people who will say that either she or that threat assessment board should have gone to law enforcement. these people died as a result of their failure so they're libel. >> there will be lawsuits but we want to know what dr. fenton know and when did she know it. unless there's prove that he threatened a specific individual or a specific group, if he said i'm going to go to a movie theater, she had an obligation to go to the police herself. the way this played out to me te didn't say anything threatening to a particular individual or group because she goes to the assessment team. she asks for help and guidance. she wouldn't need help and guidance if he had made a specific threat. and once you get to these threat assessment teams, they're looking to help students as opposed to avoid crimes. >> there's another important

point for us to understand about this particular type of crime. and that is mass murder is not about a crime of people who fall through the cracks. it is specifically a crime about people who crawl into the cracks. if he made a decision that he was going to embark on this, he may have intimated, he may have talked about it. but once he made the decision to proceed, he would have been determined not to be stopped. you can sit with a patient as a psychiatrist, if he decides if i open up to you you're going to hospitalize me, i examined andrea yaits. she knew she was going to murder her kids. she didn't tell the psychiatrist because she knew the psychiatrist would protect the kids but she knew for two months she would murder them. for someone who has a design and determination, they will be silent because they don't want it stopped because they're going for the payoff of us talking about them and they don't want

that taken away from them. >> what about that case in maryland where the guy calls says he's going to mass shoot people in the workplace, he's got guns and ammo. they stopped him. so he's going to get a fine. >> he was only charged with a misdemeanor because they intervened early in that case. >> he was, they did stop the crime but he's in a mental psychiatric facility right now. so everybody is in a difficult spot. if you put too much burden on the psychs, troubled people won't open up. so it's a difficult situation. >> i think a really important point. thanks to both. "outfront" next. the olympics. to the west. we built the tallest skyscrapers, the greatest empires. we pushed the country forward. then, some said, we lost our edge. we couldn't match the pace of the new business world.

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to create. to work. if you're going to do something. make it matter. the olympics badminton match throwing scandal continued today. there was apology from the chinese coach, one of the star players retired, and it comes after yesterday's announcement by the world badminton federation that agent players were disqualified for not using one's best efforts to win a match. they were doing it on purpose in a sport that's usually ignored. truth is, the players didn't do anything wrong. none of the eight players were doping, didn't injure anyone else, didn't quit or cheat. used a system in place to try to get advantage. they thought losing a match early on with a bad group, would get a more favorable draw in the future with a better shot at the gold medal, a problem with the system, not the players.

especially since tanking games isn't new. there's a lottery in the nba because teams were accused of throwing games to secure the top draft picks. iranians have thrown matches to not face israelis. in the olympics, the japanese soccer team played to a tie to avoid playing the united states. everyone wants an edge. you can call it bad sportsmanship, seems to be the nature of pro sports, and by pro sports, we mean the olympics. what was wolgz alg shall it is a show case for corporate sponsors like mcdonald's, coke, hien ken. while the players are chastised for dirty tricks, the truth is this, this may be the behavior e games encourage. here is hoping for less commercially driven games. that really are about athletes not about winning endorsements and being paid for by companies that make food and drinks that no not endorsed by companies that make food and drinks that no great athlete would drink. thanks for watching. on that note, here is piers

morgan. the all-american girl gabby douglas makes history and winning gold and stealing our hearts. and making a splash, team phelps goes at it again. all of the latest from london and the olympics. and she knows more about doping than most people. >> every athlete, and every person should be given that second chance. >> what marion jones thinks of the phenomenal swimmer. and plus talking about track. and the heavyweights and i mean heavyweights. >> you may not know this, but mike tyson bit me on the leg, too. >> and e vander holyfield and lennox lewis. easy, man. and the extraordinary story of a soccer star whose heart stopped for 78 minutes and he lived. this is "piers morgan the night." it is not just a good evening from london, but a great

evening for america. gabby wins the team gold and the all-around gymnast to win gold and she is also the first african-american woman to achieve that honor. and make that 20 medals for michael phelps, the best of all time wins the 200 individual medley in some style with ryan lo lochte grabs the silver. and rebecca soni broke her own record in the 200 meter breaststroke. let's get all of the latest on the amazing day for the americans, and with me is christine brennan, sports columnist for the "usa today." what a day for the americans. >> yes, i was at gymnastics, but with swimming you could have had the same headlines. >> watching michael phelps storming to the 20th medal and he wanted it badly. i got a look at a guy slightly bruised of not enough goals and i have to have this. >> and beating lochte's baby in the 200 i.m.