convention. and if you missed any part of today's show, find us on itunes. just search "state of the union." "fareed zakaria gps" is next for our viewers here in the united states. this is "gps," the "global public square." welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. on today's show we'll bring you some of the best interviews of the year. first up, the most powerful man in america. no, not what you're thinking. that's what some people call one. who? he is behind the gop pledge never to raise taxes. then, who really creates jobs in this country? is it the 1% or the 99%? i'll talk to two 1st-ers who vmtvm vehemently disagree. america won the race to the

moon, that was 40 years ago. the u.s. is currently sitting on the bench in the current space race. will that hurt it back here on earth? also, the world's great historian of the looervetmiddle bernard lewis, on the past and future of that world. first, here's my take. so i thought i would take a step away from politics, the conventions and the campaigns and look around the world. you know, the other 95% of humanity. i wanted to focus in on a story that does not get enough attention -- africa. the imf says that six of the ten fastest growing economies in 2012 are in africa. over the past decade, according to the african development bank, the number of middle-class consumers in africa, those who spend between $2 and $20 a day, has expanded 60% to 313 million. that's about the same size as the middle classes in china and india. health is improving, as well. according to the world bank, one key indicator, the death rate of

children under 5, is dropping dramatically. over 5% a year in ten sub-saharan countries and over 8% in kenya, rwanda, and senegal. there are even bright spots in the reduction of corruption. ghana, south africa, namibia, rwanda, and botswana each has less corruption, gets this, than italy and greece according to transparency international. governance is improving in many countries. terrorism by islamic extremists remains, but there is progress here, as well. having largely driven the al qaeda-linked al shabab from mogadishu, the capital, the city is experiencing the longest period of relative peace since 1991. jeff getleman, "the new york times'" east africa bureau chief is a frequent visitor to mogadishu. he told me that visitors to mogadishu's airport were until recently asked to list on their arrival form the caliber of their weapon. now they are asked the purpose of their visit, including if it's a holiday. behind much of this growth and

improvement lies the global demand for commodities with large shares of the world's oil, gold, and rare minerals, africa has been an attractive source of raw material for emerging nations. none more so than china. while the rest of the world is importing from china, the imf says sub-saharan africa has been going the other direction. as chinese premier wen jiabao noted in a speech, africa's special report special report have doubled in the last year alone. they've gotten more than half of their exports in oil and copper from china. china's arrival has also improved africa's infrastructure, including funding and building the gleaming new african union headquarters in ethiopia. today brazil, turkey, malaysia, and india are all following china's lead. but commodities alone will not sustain the kind of growth that african nations need, especially if bric countries continue to

slow from their breakneck growth. the key will be to use commodity revenue to build up agriculture and industry, invest in education and health, and improve governance. only through this will africa be able to further better the lives of the nearly 2/3 of its sub-saharan population that still lives on less than $2 a day or has no access to electricity. for now, let's step back and take a moment to note that things look much brighter than ever before on the african continent. let's get started. my next guest is according to former senator alan simpson, the most powerful man in america today. no, he's not the american president, but if he were to run for that position, simpson says, his platform would be no taxes under any situation even if your country goes to hell.

i'm talking about grover norquist, he's the author of "the taxpayer protection pledge," which seeks to oppose any net tax increases. it has been signed by 95% of republican congressmen and all but one of the original 2012 republican presidential candidates. grover norquist joins me now. >> good to be with you. >> let me ask you -- >> sure -- >> about the history of the last 20 or 30 years and ask you whether you feel some responsibility for this. here's how i see it. the republican party under ronald reagan, subsequently under gingrich when confronting george bush sr. has pushed aggressively for cutting taxes, no new taxes, many of the kinds of things you've argued for. but it has been unable for whatever reason under republican majorities, under democratic majorities, under divided or shared government to cut

spending. so what we have had is the kind of perfect expression of what the american people seem to want which is low taxes but lots of government services. and there's only one way to square that circle which is to borrow lots of money, which is what we've done for the last 30 years. so aren't you to blame for that? >> no because the alternative is to tremendously raise taxes as high as spending has gone. if this is the left's analysis of how to fix the problem. no. here's -- >> but let me ask you, sir, let's look -- you can characterize it as left or right. >> yeah. >> but if you raise taxes to meet what expenditures you want to make, at least you don't have a debt bomb. at least you don't have a debt crisis. at least you don't have a financial collapse. at least your own fate's the prospect which i assume you think we are facing of becoming another greece. in other words, i don't like high taxes, but the question is if you want lots of government services, you have two options.

you can either have high taxes, or you can borrow the money. >> but the american people clearly don't want high levels of government spending -- >> for years they've shown that they don't want to cut spending. >> the congressmen and senators they send to washington, d.c., are surrounded by spending interests who push them on -- for higher levels of spending and try to push them for higher levels of taxes. when you polled the american people, do you want more government services at a higher cost or fewer government services at a lower cost, 2-1. and that is almost unchanged. >> in the abstract? >> in the abstract. >> when you go to a specific program they like -- >> and ask are they willing to pay additional taxes for it, the answer's no. >> but do they want cuts in it, they say no either. >> if taxes go down, you can get that. the disconnect is when you send people who promise to cut spending and taxes and send them to washington and they are surrounded. i run a taxpayer group, the most powerful guy in d.c. nonsense, okay. there are buildings with thousands of people in them all lobbying for more spending and higher levels of spending and

more government commitments. and there are a handful, a handful of groups that fight for less spending. how do we even the score? that's what the pledge has begun to do. because we make visible a candidate who says i'm going to washington, not raising taxes. then people know exactly what he or she committed to because it's in writing, it's short, simple, no net tax increase. >> let me ask you this, we are taxing now at 14% of gdp. >> thanks to the recession. >> we're spending at 23% of gdp. are you telling me that you believe you can get all, you can close that gap entirely by cutting spending, that is by taking something on the range of 7% or 8% of gdp out of government spending? that is cutting $800 billion out of government spending every year? >> you do two things. you reduce spending, and you have stronger economic growth. this is one of the weakest recoveries we've had -- >> you can as a practical matter, this is a wish, not a plan. i would like stronger economic growth, too, but your fiscal

situation has to be -- >> we'll get to that. you can't -- you undo the regulatory burdens that obama has put in and threatened to put in. you get rid of obama care -- >> this is all rhetoric. you've got a plan as a practical matter. as i said, clinton raised takds, he cut growth -- taxeses, he cut growth. bush had the weakest growth in 30 years. all i'm saying is as a matter of practical planning for the fiscal future of the united states your answer can't be, well we'll have stronger growth. yeah, if we grow at 6%, we don't need to do anything. everything is solvent, right? but i can't wish for that. we've got to plan realistically. >> we know that if you reduce capital gains taxes, you actually get more growth. if we go to full expensing for business investment, we'll get more investment. we need to have an immigration policy that brings both talent and numbers to the country. we need to have a territorial tax system so a trillion dollars that's overseas to come back here and create jobs and opportunities here while making the country stronger --

>> if you could wave a magic wand for the tax code, what would you do? >> you take corporate and individual rates to 20%. 25 does not make you internationally competitive because while the european average on the corporate rate is 25 and most americans work for firms that pay at the individual level, not at the corporate rate, so you got to bring them both down. obama wants to take the individual small business tax to 44% and the corporate rate, he says, down to 28% or whatever. but that really damages the small businesses and doesn't make us competitive. you've got to take them both to 20 because state and local taxes are -- to compete with europe we've got to be at 20 nationally and 25 to compete with europe. >> you don't think bringing taxes down that much at least in the short run will mean that you will lose substantial revenue? >> i think you'd -- you do a number of things at once. look, we're going to have a republican house after this next election. we're going to have a republican senate after this next election. 23 democrats up, ten republicans up. the democrats, half of them in vulnerable seats.

two of the republicans might lose. so you're going to have a republican house and senate. the question is, if you have a republican president, all of the things i'm talking about, the rhetoric, that's not rhetoric, that's the plan. >> grover norquist, good to have you on. >> good to be with you. and we will be back. >> the idea that you have to have a 15% capital gains tax rate in order for people to start companies, first of all, reduces people like me and other entrepreneurs to sociopathic money grubbers who only do what we do for a dollar. and that is categorically untrue. ♪ ♪ with a subaru you can always find a way. announcer: love. it's what makes a subaru, a subaru.

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with the unemployment rate as high as it still is, a crucial question that must be answered is -- who creates jobs? is it the 1% or middle-class consumers? that's at the heart of the debate we're going to have today. i'm joined by two business leaders. on my right is edward conard, he is the former bain capital partner and unabashed member of the so-called 1%. and he says it is he and his colleagues who are largely responsible for job creation. nick hanauer is an entrepreneur and venture capitalist, also member of the 1%. he says that when businesspeople take credit for creating jobs, it's like squirrels taking credit for evolution. so let's start, ed's got a book out. we've had him on the show before. you get the first word. why is it like squirrels taking credit for evolution?

>> if. in w-- if investment was the ke there would be apple stores in somalia and a bain capital office in bangladesh. the thing -- the goose that lays the golden egg is not people like ed and myself. we are a dime a dozen. the greatest economic achievement of the 20th century has been the creation of the american middle class. it is demand, it is customers that drive all economic activity. look, the world is awash in capital. american corporations are sitting on $2 trillion worth of cash. ed's firm alone has raised $35 billion in private equity. i'm in the venture capital business. you can fund any cockamamie idea. the world is awash in -- awash -- >> tell people in africa and india that the world is awash this capital. it's ridiculous. >> what we lack today is consumers. the only reason any company invests, the only reason any company hires someone is because

they believe they're going to have a customer for that. look, anyone who's ever run a business knows that a capitalist hires more people only as a course of last resort. when -- when there are no options available other than meeting increasing demand from customers. >> but at some point presumably this logic does apply. which is that if the middle class, if the larger -- if the majority, if 80%, 90% have lower and lower incomes, the fact that they don't have much purchasing power will affect demand, will it not? >> i think there's two problems with the argument. we know there's no apple store in thailand because there isn't a lot of capital per worker. there isn't a lot of training per worker, and there isn't a lot of the innovation compared to the u.s. that has driven incomes way up in the u.s. relative. that's why we can afford apple computers and things like that. if you don't have the investment in place, first of all, you don't get the consumption after the fact. now, you can run the math, and the assumption in the math is

that if you lower the incentives for risk taking, if you lower the investment that goes into risk taking, if you lower the capital, the equity that underwrites the risk taking, you will get the kind of growth in the middle class that the u.s. has been able to achieve. we can look at real-world experiments out there. we don't find one where that's true. we have three great world experiments, the u.s., europe, and japan. our median incomes are 25% higher than europe's. our median incomes have grown relative to europe and japan. we can spread the income over a lot of employees, which we have because we've grown our employment much faster and much greater than they have grown theirs. or we can restrict the supply of labor, for example, and drive wages up to a certain extent. but either way, what matters is how much income you've created. we are creating way more income at the median than europe and japan are creating. and that is because innovation is driving our economy so we can say, hey, we'll take away the incentives. we'll take away the equity. we'll take away the investment. but we'll get the growth anyway. got blessed america with entrepreneurial spirit.

>> ed and i are in violent agreement that innovation is extraordinarily an important thing. where we diverge is this idea that we have to lower tax rates to these unbelievably low levels in order to have it. and so this is my world. and the idea that you have to have a 15% capital gains tax rate in order for people to start companies, first of all, reduces people like me and other entrepreneurs to sociopathic money grubbers who only do what we do for a dollar. that is categorically untrue. we start companies because we want to change the world, solve a problem, be king of the hill, be our own boss. by this logic, bill gates and steve jobs made a terrible mistake by starting their companies because tax rates were 2.5 or 3 times higher than they are now. >> let me ask what you would change.

even if your argument is true, wouldn't it be fair to say the united states does provide enormous incentives for rich people to invest, taxes are historically speaking at least, you know, much lower than in the 1970s when microsoft and apple were founded, marginal tax rates, 75%. capital gains taxes in the 40s. do you think capital gains needs to be further reduced? >> i would be very, very careful about reducing the incentives for risk takers, and i would be working very hard to lower the spending. and i think there's agreement on the left and the right that we have to -- i mean, we have to substantially reduce the spending over the long run if we want to preserve the growth rates and the benefits that we have been able to provide for the middle class relative to europe and japan. if we want to continue that success. >> you want to invest -- the spending you're talking about is basically investment in the middle class. >> absolutely. i just want to address this risk thing for a moment because i find it absurd. i mean, if you think about the

iconic so-called risk takers in our economy, bazos, zuckerberg, gates, the google guys, imagine their lives. so the google guys -- god bless them, they've done a great thing. but they've grown up in families where their parents are professors of mathematics and computer science. so far, no risk. they if to stanford university to get ph.d.'s in computer science. other than being born in the british royal family, no institution on earth more insulates you from risk than a ph.d. in computer science from stanford. at the best time in human history in the best place in human history, they go off to live the dream and start an internet company in silicon valley in the mid '90s. so far, no risk. the money that goes into google comes from venture capitalists. you think maybe they took a risk, but not really because venture capitalists like private equity people make money whether the deal works or not. the only people who took a risk in this entire chain are the working people whose pension

funds the venture capital company invested in google. because if google goes bankrupt, those people will actually lose their money. this idea that we owe the so-called risk takers fieldty or special tramt treeatment is abs >> you're making a moral argument as opposed to an economic argument. how are you taking risks at the lowest cost? >> i would agree with that. >> thomas edison said success is 1% inspiration, 99% perspiration. business is a team sport, it's not about two guys sitting in their dorm room at stanford, okay. it's about attracting talent to that company to make the company successful. getting those people to walk away from companies like microsoft and google and all the other companies that they're walking away from. it doesn't matter whether it's moral or not, it's what's the economic cost to get those guys to walk away, to create the next google, the next facebook. it's not the after the fact payoff, billions of dollars, it's before the fact when they have a one in a million chance. they recognize that unless they

get a little more equity, they have very little chance of producing as much income and wealth as they would of in they stayed at their job at google and facebook, as opposed to walking away and taking a risk. we have been able to do it. and europe and japan have been singularly unsuccessful in accomplishing this. their most present atted people if to the beach -- talented people go to the beach. our top 20% are the only people in high wage economies. when you get more money you work less. the only high wage economies people are working more hours, not less hours. that is beneficial to the middle class and working poor throughout the world. u.s. innovation is what's driving the growth rate. >> thank you, gentlemen. wonderful debate. maybe we'll have round two -- >> let's go. what is that? it's you! it's me? alright emma, i know it's not your favorite but it's time for your medicine, okay? you ready? one, two, three. [ both ] ♪ emma, emma bo-bemma

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now for our "what in the world" segment. we tend to think of dictators as all-powerful leaders who act with naked cruelty and impunity. think of bashar al assad in syria or for a celluloid reminder, look at this scene from sacha baron cohen's new film. [ cheers ] >> but the film "the dictator"

and our imagination of dictators is somewhat outdated. the modern dictator is more evolved and attuned to how people think. a new book highlights that trend. it's called "the dictator's learning curve," by william dobson. dictators have gotten smart, dobson writes, to keep pace with changes in technology. ♪ >> old school dictators could keep atrocities relatively secret. that's not possible today. if a dictator tried to orchestrate a mass killing and keep it secret, it would fail. it would end up on youtube. the crimes of uganda's konr are an internet phenomenon and he remains on the run. war criminals cannot act with impunity. charles taylor of liberia was recently found guilty by the u.n. special court for sierra leon, and president bashir has been indicted by the international criminal court. today's cleverest dictators have

evolved. they allow a certain amount of dissent as an escape valve. consider china. there's a study by three political scientists at harvard. they've devised a way to analyze millions of social media posts in china. what's special is that they claim to do this before the chinese government gets to sensor them. provides a unique insight into what the people think and what the government deems necessary to censor. what did they find? contrary to what you think, it turns out criticisms of the government are not more likely to get censored. even vitriolic criticism is allowed. the focus is on stopping mass mobilization. last year, beijing blocked internet searches for tunisia's jasmine revolution to prevent discussions about the arab spring. similarly, searches for the number 4-6 were censored, the independents representing june 4

-- the numbers representing june 4, the anniversary of the massacre at tiananmen square. the harvard study shows that beijing's leaders making measured concessions. it is said that some 500 protests take place every day across china. but anything that could lead to something larger or more organized is instantly clamped down on. ♪ >> another example -- putin's russia has usually allowed the print media a great deal of freedom on the theory that what a few tens of thousands of people read in moscow and st. petersburg doesn't matter. but the regime has taken over television news completely, so mass opinion is carefully controlled out of the kremlin. we're witnessing a trend in china, russia, venezuela, and many other countries, even myanmar. gone are the days when dictators could completely ignore the demands of their people. as citizens become more exposed to citizens around the world, more connected to each other on the internet and social media, dictators will have to make

greater concessions. it's a situation that is far better than how things were ten, 20, or 50 years ago. regimes like those in syria and north korea can still act with all-out brutality. but they are outliers. they represent a fading order. the new model is to allow a controlled space for free commerce, for open education, even for dissent. perhaps people in these countries can use that space to slowly expand the realm of freedom and liberty. we'll be right back. all the traditional stem fields, the science, technology, engineering, and math field are stoked when you dream big in an agency such as nasa. it's not that much money. right now it's a half a penny on your tax dollar. i say double it to a penny. that could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily

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try capzasin-hp. it penetrates deep to block pain signals for hours of relief. capzasin-hp. take the pain out of arthritis. charlotte, site of this year's democratic national convention. before president obama arrives here, he is touring some must-win battleground states. he made two stops yesterday in iowa, including this one outside des moines. attended, we are told, by 10,000 people. the president has another big rally planned today in boulder, colorado. and that happens to be where we find our athena jones. hey, athena.

>> reporter: hi, candy. on day two of what the campaign is calling their road to charlotte, the president speaks on yet another college campus. here at the university of colorado at boulder. we expect his message to be a lot like what we heard from him yesterday in iowa. another key battleground state where he spent part of its speech responding to what we heard from the republicans at their convention last week. let's listen to a little of what he had to say. >> despite all the challenges that we face in this new century, what they offered over those three days was, more often than not, an agenda that was better suited for the last century. [ applause ] >> it was a rerun. we'd seen it before. you might as well of watched it on a black and white tv. >> reporter: and another big push we heard from the president yesterday and from campaign staff that we expect to hear again today has to do with early voting and voting by mail.

according to the campaign here in colorado, 77% of the vote came in either early or by mail last time around. so it's something that could prove pivotal to winning the state's nine electoral votes again. and in fact, according to the campaign, the majority of vote came in either early or by mail, not just in colorado but also in florida, in north carolina, and nevada in 2008. all states that the president won. so this is something we can expect to hear a lot about as we go forward in the states where it's relevant. candy? >> thanks, our athena jones in boulder, colorado. we'll have more on the president's tough road to re-election when i return at noon eastern. now back to "fareed zakaria gps." space as "star trek" reminds us is the final frontier. but is it the final frontier of earth-bound conflict? of a power struggle between the united states and china? that's what my next guest says. neil degrasse tyson, the

astrophysicist, spends a lot of time looking and thinking about space. he's director of the hayden planetarium here in new york. >> thanks, thanks. >> when you wrote this article in foreign affairs that i was struck by -- >> cover article. >> the cover essay. and they talked about -- and you talked in this article in "foreign affairs" about the fact that we were withdrawing from the -- from space. limiting our ambitions at the very moment that china was amping up its program. you worry a lot about the fact that people are getting very cost conscious and very -- really cutting back. you tell the story about the hubble space telescope. explain why it's important and what happened. >> well, in that particular case, the hubble space telescope, as you may remember, when it was launched, the mirror had the wrong curvature. images were fuzzy. would be a while before we would get that repaired with

corrective optics. what do you do? up in space -- you have to mount a mission and design a mission to correct -- that problem was not aepd before hubble was launched. you have to be clever about what you pulled out and swapped in. so there was some down timetime, if you will, where you could t data but fuzzy data. what do you do? you don't want to waste it. an algorithm was developed to extract as much information as you possibly can from these fuzzy images of stars. and that exercise, that algorithm was shared with a medical doctor who specialized in breast cancer research. and he noted that finding these dots of light in an otherwise fuzzy environment is exactly what he does visual when he he's looking for early detection of breast cancer in mammograms. so they took this algorithm, apply it. now they're finding -- early detection of breast cancer, doing a better job than the human eye was able to do.

you can't script that. and that happens all the time. this cross pollination of fields, innovation in one stimulating revolutionary changes in another. if you only want to put money to a problem, you can tend to make evolutionary changes, small increments. but the big changes come about when all the -- i'm not saying just space, you need all the sciences. a quick note, all the machines in a hospital that have an on and off switch brought into the service of diagnosing the condition of the human body without cutting you open, they're based on a principle of physics discovered by a physicist who had no interest in medicine. from the x-ray machine, one of the earliest of these diagnostic tools, to the entire department of radiology to -- >> light waves -- >> that and energy, out of the atom, the -- with mri, the p.e.t. scans, physicists just doing physics. so if you say i want to be healthier, let's put more money in the medical community, no. you've got to put money everywhere.

but in the school system and in the culture of society what drives ambitions? there's nothing that drives ambitions the way nasa does. and today's nasa portfolio taps biologists because we're looking for life on mars, chemists, physicist the, electrical engineer, mechanical engineers, all the traditional s.t.e.m. fields, the science, technology, engineering, and math field are stoked when you dream big in an agency such as nasa. and it's not that much money. right now it's a half a penny on your tax dollar. i say double it. to a penny, right? then we go to mars in a big way. in short term it becomes a big, visible project. schoolkids know about it. who is the first astronaut, class? today, they're -- in middle school today. i got an idea, select them now, and then we all could track, see how -- are they eating well, getting good grades? tomorrow's "mercury 7." >> what is your hope about the mars mission? this is -- clearly part of it is symbolic. but part of it is you actually think there's a lot to learn by --

>> as a scientist, i want to go to mars and back to asteroids and the moon because i'm a scientist. but i can tell you, i'm not so naive a scientist to think that the nation might not have geopolitical reasons for going into space. nasa was created in a geopolitical climate. you know, we were spooked by sputnik. sputnik itself was a hollowed out, intercontinental ballistic missile, with the missile removed. put in a little radio transmitter. everyone said, oh, it's going beep. the military knew the implication of this. and so the space station itself, the initial impetus was russia's building their own space station. so i don't have a problem with geopolitical arguments for going into space. let all the reasons reveal themselves. tourism, let the private sector go take care of that. krof any problems with that. and as scientist, send me to mars. >> would you go? >> i would say go to mars. but to low earth orbit no. i'm boldly going where no one

has gone before. i'll take may family. sign me up. >> neil degrasse tyson, a pleasure. >> thanks for having me. >> we will be back. the entire arab world other than oil and gas amount to less than those of finland. one small european country. that's a staggering statistic.

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frank lloyd wright was once on a witness stand, the judge asked him to describe who he was. he said, "i am the world's greatest living architect." the judge was surprised, he said, "your honor, i am under oath." if bernard lewis were in a similar situation he could he is the world's greatest historyyon of the middle east. he was at princeton for many decades and joins me now. >> thank you very much. >> "notes on a century: reflections of a middle eastern destroy," note are the first thing anyone would want to know from you is tell puss the arab spring. how important -- tell us about

the arab spring, how important is it? >> we can't say yet. it could be very person or could end in disaster. i don't know. both are possible. >> but when you look at it, does it strike you as a kind of -- there seems to be almost a long-suppressed liberation not only from particular rumors but from foreign domination, so much a part of the middle east. >> well, i agree that there are good signs. but i don't think foreign domination of the main problem. foreign domination was brief and ended some time ago, and that didn't make their problems any better. made them rather worse since there was nobody convenient to blame. >> when you look at the prospects for democracy in the middle east, how would assess them? >> depends what you mean by democracy. i think we in the western world have made the great mistake of assuming that our way of doing things is the only right one. and when we use the word -- the word democracy is used in many languages, many different meanings. when we use it in english, we

usually mean the angro american parliament row seasary system. it's not -- i think that in the middle east and more particularly in islam, they have their own political traditions, they have their own cultural traditions. and one thing very important is that there is tradition of having bodies in society where authority comes from within and not from above. that is the basis of what i would call a democratic society in any meaningful send of that word. >> your first claim to fame was turkey. you wrote your first book -- first major book about turkey, the emergence of modern turkey. you speak turkish, you also see arabic and farsy -- >> many languages. >> lots of people worry about turkey and say this is an

islamist government that is turning turkey into a liberal society. others say no, no, no, this is the real expression of democracy. you had a military junta that was running it, now you have genuine liberal democracy. how do you look at turkey? >> i think there's something to be said for both interpretations. they're not mutually exclusive. i mean, this government did come to power by a free and fair election. no doubt about that. turkey was the first country which held genuinely free and fair elections. i was there in 1950 and spent the year in turkey. i was there when the first fair and free election took place. the government lost. the government conducted and controlled the election, it lost the election. it gracefully withdrew from power and handed over it the opposition. it was a memorable experience. since then, democracy has had a rather checkered experience in the region.

it's an alien concept. it's taking some time to assimilate. but i think there is progress. and two things i think which are important. one is the point that i mentioned before. the existence and presumably development of institutions and bodies where authority comes from inside and not from above. and the provision organizations being probably the most important. the religious organization, the craft gilds and so on. and the other is the increasing participation of women. >> you spent your life when you started working on the middle east, it was all dictatorships. do you look at it now and think that the middle east is -- it's a more hopeful place than when you began working it? >> i am cautiously optimistic, yes. and the thing one has to bear in mind about the middle east, it was pointed out not long ago by an arab committee that the total

exports of the entire arab world other than oil and gas amount to less than those of finland. one small european country. now that's a staggering statistic. it means, though, the economies depend entirely on oil. and this is true even in the countries which don't have oil because they depend on the others. and sooner or later, oil and gas will either be exhausted or superseded as the modern world turns to other sources of energy. and when that occurs, they will have nothing left. n now, one possibility is that they may develop alternative forms of economic activity. another, more likely, is that the range will lapse into insignificance. >> do you think that latter is -- >> i think the latter is more likely at the moment. >> because americans are losing interest on -- >> exactly, america is clearly

losing special. europe has some interest, but is unable to do much about it. and russia was obviously unable to do much about it. i mean, the -- the superpowers of the second half of the twister centu21st century would be india and china. they will be the superpowers of the world contesting world domination. >> good thing you studied the middle east while but, when it was the chemical pit of history. >> and when i was still able to move around freely. >> bernard lewis, a pleasure to have you on. >> thank you very much. delighted to be with you. >> we will be back. ♪ ♪ i can do anything ♪ i can do anything today ♪ i can go anywhere ♪ i can go anywhere today ♪ la la la la la la la [ male announcer ] dow solutions help millions of people by helping to make gluten free bread that doesn't taste gluten free.

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the republican convention is behind us. the democratic convention is ahead of us. and this convention season brings me to my question. which party held the first-ever national political convention in the united states in 1831? was it, a, the democratic party? b, the nullifier party? c, the federalist party? d, the anti-masonic party? stay tuned, we'll tell you the correct answer. go to cnn.com/fareed for more of the "gps" challenge and follow us on twitter and facebook. remember, if you miss a show or special, go to itunes.com/fareed. you can buy episodes there. the audio podcast is free. this week's back of the week is called "connectome," by mit professor sebastian seung. it says that we are how we are because our brains are wired. that the pattern and connections between neurons is what forms identities. it's something stuff and very

well written. and now for the "last look." labor day weekend marks the end of summer here in the united states when people start putting away the sunscreen, the grills, and the beach chairs. and perhaps thinking longingly about next summer. but perhaps by next summer a chinese trend will catch on here. you see, on some beaches in china like this one, they go for full protection. no, i'm not talking about spf 100. i'm talking about masks. that's right, it's full fashion in parts of china to cover your entire head and part of your neck with a mask to ensure the sun's rays stay away and also apparently to ward off the jellyfish. just make sure you don't wear one on your next vacation to cancun or you might be mistaken for a mcwrestler. -- a mexican wrestler. the correct answer to our question is d, the long-endingtincanti-masonic party. the