tv Your Money CNN May 18, 2013 9:30am-10:00am EDT
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land snails that can grow to the size of a rat, will eat almost anything in their path and can lay 1,200 eggs a year. no thanks. >> amazing. >> thank you so much for joining us. we appreciate it. >> this is where i get off the ride. poppy will be back with you at the top of the hour. thanks for watching. "your money" starts now. did you buy stocks on march 9th, 2009? i'm christine romans. this is "your money." maybe you don't have that date marked in your calendar but that was the start of a major, major rally. if you're smart or lucky and definitely solvent, you bought stocks back then and you're admiring the hefty returns. the s&p 500 is up 145% from that date and hitting record after record high. if you're not in this market you are missing out and if you are in you're wondering if it's time to sell. but what if you missed the entire rally? can you still get in, or are you the sucker? there still may be some room to run. the current bull market is the
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fifth largest since 1928. if you compare it with the other four it could, could push even higher. the bull market is in the 1940s is just a few percentage points higher but look at 1982 to 1987-up 228%. 1948 to 1956 up 267% and the king of all the bulls, 1987 to 00 the s&p 500 surged 582%. the average span of the top five bull markets is 2,300 days, that's about six and a half years. this current rally just over four years. jim rogers is chairman of rogers holdings and author of "street smarts, adventures on the road and the market" jeremy siegel from university of pennsylvania's wharton school. jim, what are the gold, bonds, the dollar, are stocks the only place investors have to put their money right now? >> well, no, they're not the only place but that's where
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everybody is going. >> why? >> because it's fun. it's exciting, you know, jeremy siegel will tell you the market's going to go through the roof. >> do you believe it? >> i'm not skeptical it's going to happen because what's happening that's causing it is skagerring amounts of money printing. >> the fed. >> i'm not skeptical but i'm worried about why. >> why it's happening you say is because the fed is pumping $85 million into the market. >> not just the fed, the japanese central bank said they'll print unlimited amounts of money and the english said we can do that too and the europeans. this is the first time in world history that every central bank is printing money and debasing the currency. this cannot end well. >> you're predicting danger ahead. jeremy siegel you've talked about the market, 16,000 i think is your goal for your target for the end of the year but let me show you professor who is in and out, just 52% of americans say they're invested in a 401(k), mutual fund, individual stocks,
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that's the lowest level ever recorded so if the market's going to keep going higher, should people get in right now or are they suckers? >> well, my feeling is this bull market is not over and jim, i'm not going to say that stock market's going to go through the roof. my projection by the end of the year is 16,000 to 17,000 and even higher next year, but relative to historical valuations, that's not through the roof, it's nothing like 1999, which was crazy. we are at half the price earnings ratio we were then, and christine, you quoted figures in terms of bull markets, this is still young and still nowhere near the average appreciation. it's fundamentals. it's earnings and what else you have to invest in that are the most important determinants and i do not believe that qe is the only reason why people are
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moving into stocks. i think they're moving into stocks because the opportunities elsewhere are not attractive. >> but jim, are you suggesting that the japanese and the federal reserve and the europeans and the english weren't printing all this money, this would be happening anyway? >> my feeling is that we would still be in a bull market, yes, i actually do because of valuations. now, if we were at the level we were in 1999, i would say yes, it's just the printing of money. this is crazy valuation but jim look at the price-to-earnings ratio and tell me, they are historically out of line with what we have experienced in the past. you can't. they are not. >> you are right that we are not in a bubble. we're certainly not in any kind of bubble stage. technically stocks could go a lot higher but what if they stop printing money? jeremy the japanese stock market is up 60% in seven months. that's not normal. >> professor siegel, what happens when the fed starts to signal strongly it's going to
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unwind its historic stimulus in the market? we heard that earlier this week. >> first of all, so many people are convinced it's like only the fed, it's only qe. i have no doubt that when they announce they're going to taper it off or stop, stop printing, there's going to be a short term reaction in the market which i think is a great buying opportunity because i think fundamentals are what are driving this market going forward. >> let me ask you both about jobs because something in the stock discussion i get a lot from people is, it doesn't matter because half of americans aren't invested and it doesn't matter because companies aren't using their profits or their flush corporate balance sheets to actually create jobs. jim, without a solid middle class job creation, can this, you know, recovery of stocks continue in. >> christine, that's bullish. the fact that's not happening yet, that would make jeremy's case. that is still to come. if you told me everybody has a job and companies are spending staggering amounts of money, et cetera, et cetera, and the
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market's up much, much higher then you have to be worried. what you just said is yet to come, that makes jeremy's case. i hate to hear her helping you jeremy but she helped you a lot. >> the job angle is missing, isn't it? >> we have what 7.5% unemployment, that still means 92.5% if i did my subtraction right of the people are employed. >> unless they dropped out of the labor market or underemployed or temporary jobs of the 19% of the jobs it's not exactly rosy out there. >> i'm not saying it's rosy out there, i'm not saying we have, don't have further to go and i think we're underutilized but i think we're getting there and through the second half of this year and first half of next year we're going to see better than expected gdp growth, 3% to 4%. we haven't seen that in a long time and that's going to help
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the unemployment figures and also once more people are drawn into the economy i think that will further boost the stock market. >> last question to jim rogers, you invest all over the world. you actually moved to asia. is america still the best place to make your fortune in the world? >> it's a wonderful place to live and wonderful place to make your fortune. i has. to think there are better places. we're the largest debtor nation in history so we have the wind in our face. in asia, china, korea, japan, taiwan, hong kong, singapore. the money is innishia. if you want the wind at your back you might think about asia but this is a wonderful place. >> thanks, guys. the irs, ap phone records, benghazi, obama care that's what's been dominating the president's agenda this week. what's getting left out? i'll tell you, right after this. that's true. ...but you still have to go to the gym.
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for a body in motion. investors could lose tens of thousands of dollars on their 401(k) to hidden fees. is that what you're looking for, like a hidden fee in your giant mom bag? maybe i have them... oh that's right i don't because i rolled my account over to e-trade where... woah. okay... they don't have hidden fees... hey fern. the junk drawer? why would they... is that my gerbil? you said he moved to a tiny farm. that's it, i'm running away. no, no you can't come! [ male announcer ] e-trade. less for us. more for you. president obama knocked off message this week and that message was supposed to be -- >> new jobs and new opportunities for the middle class. american jobs. more jobs. jobs. jobs. >> 12 million net new jobs in four years, that's what president obama promised during the campaign. that works out to 250,000 jobs a month. now to keep his promise at this
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point in his second term, the economy should have created 750,000 jobs. we're at 635,000, more than half of those were created just in february alone. i want to bring in robert risch, professor at the university of california berkeley and the author of "beyond outraged, what has gone wrong with our economy and democracy and how to fix it." welcome to the program. >> hi, christine. >> over the last three months the country added 21,000 jobs but the jobs recovery it's fair to say has been choppy and this week first time unemployment claims jumped by 32,000 so it shows layoffs picking up just a little bit in the most recent week. do you think the president can meet that target of 12 million jobs in four years? >> i think it's going to be very difficult to meet that target. both because the job situation is still very bad and also
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because the headwinds on the economy coming from a europe that is shrinking, a japan that is basically still a basket case, china's growth is slowing, a world economy is not exactly cooperating and on top of that the sequester in washington. given all of the drags on the economy it will be hard to get that many jobs. >> as part of the fiscal cliff americans saw their payroll taxes jump. in a new study from the new york fed finds the rise in payroll taxes is going to cause payroll to cut their spending by an average of $720 this year. there's the fiscal cliff, also that payroll tax holiday that went away. you've been a long time proponent of exempting the first $15,000 from income tax. do you think that could generate jobs growth? >> yes, it could generate jobs growth.
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certainly we could make up the difference if you lose some money, the federal government loses money by exempting the first $15,000 for social security you just lift the lid on the percentage or the amount of money subjected to social security taxes. and that would be not only good for the economy, but it also would be a move in the direction of helping the middle class. you know, one of the hidden issues here, christine, is not only do we have a very slow jobs recovery but most of the jobs being created pay less than the jobs that were lost in the great recession. so the quality of jobs is a problem as well. >> and that's -- when you talk about the changing of those payroll tax holiday, the payroll withholdings it's so interesting because it would mean people who make more money would pay a little bit more out of their paycheck, people above 106,000 would pay more but middle class workers would have less taken out of their paycheck, bottom line. >> yes, that's right. people who earned a little bit, you know, at the top of the earnings scale would pay a little bit more but remember everybody according to this
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proposal everybody's first $15,000 of income would be exempt from social security tabs. if you're earning $112,000, $115,000 you'll pay less overall. it's only people over $200,000, $250,000 a year pay more. >> you were former u.s. labor secretary. this is commencement season. college graduates are enjoying an unemployment rate that's half the united states average. agree or disagree, college education today costs more and delivers less than any other time in history. >> i would say it's probably right but still is a good deal, that is over the course of a lifetime college graduates are earning about 70% more than people who do not have a four-year college degree. even though many young people are coming into a very bad jobs market, even though many of them have a lot of debt hanging over
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their shoulder it's still over the long-term going to be a good deal for them. >> robert reich, thank you so much. >> thanks, christine. >> have a great weekend. a final quiz for the class of 2013, 70% of you are graduating with some student debt. is the average amount ohhed, a, 15,000. b, $25,000, or c, 35 grand? the answer right after this. matt's brakes didn't sound right... ...so i brought my car to mike at meineke...
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$35,200, that's how much the average graduate from the class of 2013 owes. not everyone graduates with debt but most do. the same study from fidelity investments finds 70% of this year's graduating class will leave college with debt. 54% say it will take them more than nine years to pay off the loans and 7% say they don't ever
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expect to pay the loans back. why? rising costs, college tuition and fees have jumped 1,120% since 1978. that's compared with 601% for medical care and 244% for food. so is the high cost of college worth it? not according to bill bennett, not in all cases. bill was secretary of education under president reagan and author of "is college worth it?" bill you and i have talked about this for so many years. you say the cost of college will keep rising as student aid continues to increase unchecked. does this mean we need to address rising tuition and financial aid rather than rethinking who should be going to college and what they should be majoring in? >> well, i think it means thinking on both fronts and some people should go to college, by the way, about a third of those who start four-year colleges it makes a lot of sense for a number of different reasons. but the availability of federal funds continued to drive up
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prices. it's possible the because the ct away with it. they can charge and charge and charge and people will just keep paying in because they want their kids to get the degree because they believe it is a talisman, it is magic. but it isn't magic for a lod of people. for a third of the people that go it is. for two-thirds, it isn't. 45% of people who start four-year colleges don't finish. they don't finish at all. many of them the debt and the college degree. >> the cost and the quality, you look at it from a numbers standpoint, do you agree with the statement, it cost s more t get a degree today and that degree delivers less than at any other time in our lifetime. >> it depends, what you're talking about and where. if you go into petroleum engineering at the university of texas, it is going to pay off. if you get to stanford, you should probably go. if you go to a second level liberal arts college and major
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in philosophy like i majored in philosophy, it may not make sense. you should go into it with your eyes open but you may not get a great job, may not get any job at all. in the book, we talk about various choices, various situations. one thing is for sure, the colleges that have been taking in the money. as you pointed out the inflation numbers for tuition are extraordinary and they have been getting away with it and a lot of kids and families have been cheated, particularly a lot of the poor kids, kids at the bottom of american society economically are now graduating from college in smaller numbers than they did 30 years ago. >> we talk about student loan rates. set to double on july 1st. senator warren is proposing a student loan fairness act. under her proposal, new student borrowers could take out a stafford loan at 3.4%. why do you think that proposal
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might not be as rosy as it looks on the surface? >> we need to look at the ramifications and see who subsidizes the loans. to date, the public has been subsidizing the loans. who pays the loans back too? there is a lot of provisions in there for student loan forgiveness. we propose 25 years ago the income contingent loan. and you graduate from college, if you owe money and you're going to venture fund capitalist and make a million dollars, you pay it all back. if you go in at the lower edges of journalism, let's say or philosophy professor, you pay it back in small amount each year. i also think the colleges need to have skin in the game. if they advertise, charge these amounts, kids come, they don't graduate or they graduate and don't get jobs, i think the colleges need to give some of that money back. >> you to think the colleges are adapting to the new reality of the job market? do you think they're still delivering -- >> some are. >> -- a product the way they did
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20 years ago? >> some are. there is a big fight now. massive open online courses. big announcement, georgia tech, using a company in palo alto, i'm on their advisory board, i should point out, is going to masters degree in computer technology for $6,000. it used to cost $40,000. here's a way to get costs and prices down, use the new technology and georgia tech i think it very smart to do this. >> that's an interesting trend that will be a big game changer in education, i'm sure. bill bennett, the philosophy major, christine romans, journalism and french. let's just point out liberal arts are the critical thinking, the innovation and the good judgment you need to balance out all those stem people in the world, no question. bill bennett, thank you very much. >> oh, man, christine. you opened up a lot there. we'll i want to come back. >> you come back. thanks. up next, after all the pomp and circumstance, my advice to new grads entering the, quote,
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it's commencement season. college seniors across america are collecting their degrees, getting ready to enter the workforce. they'll have to contend with high student debt and a job market that is still struggling. with competition so intense, today's college grads need a battle plan. after this, you may think you're done with this. but the homework has only begun. the good news, the economy is recovering. stock markets are on a tear. and companies are flush with cash. the bad news is they're still not hiring robustly. and competition is intense among new college grads. one-third of recent grads surveyed said they were making no more than $25,000 a year. with tens of thousands of
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dollars in debt to pay off, and a still sluggish jobs market, was it all worth it? >> the long-term data says that investing in the degree is the right thing to do. but you've got to treat it like an investment and treat it seriously. really show interest and passion about the area you want to work in and start networking early. the last thing is, take every opportunity. >> every opportunity because your dream job may not be attainable at first. and it is going to change with time. as the great doctor seuss once said, quoted again and again at commencement speeches -- >> you have brains in your head, feet in your shoes -- >> you can steer yourself any direction you choose. >> reporter: it's up to you to steer yourself, especially if you feel like all the student debt wasn't worth it. >> it doesn't take an advanced degree to figure out that people that have more skills and more education are doing better and surviving better in this comeback than are people who do not. i mean, that screams out of the
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data. >> reporter: what the data show is nearly two-thirds of recent college grads say they need more training in order to get that dream job. but fewer than half say they got it in their first job after graduation. meaning, plan your next two or three career moves now, and figure how your first job out of college can help with those moves. finally, start planning for retirement now. does your company offer a 401(k) match? take it. start saving now and pay off your debt as soon as possible. call it a battle plan for grads, make your opening shot in the job market work for you. so how is it looking out there for you and what do you want to know about getting a job after college? do you think college is worth the investment? let's talk about it. find me on facebook and twitter. i'll be back at 2:00 p.m. today and i'll be naming names. two u.s. companies signed on to a global pact to improve safetied agarmesafety ed at garment factories.
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