thrrrrpt! [applause] captioning by ccptionmax www.captionmax.com >> from comedy central's world news headquarters in new york, this is "daily show" with trevor noah. ( cheers and applause ) captioning sponsored by comedy central >> trevor: thank you so much. welcome to the "daily show." thank you, thank you, thank you. i'm trevor noah. my guest tonight from fivethirtyeight.com, nate silver is here, everybody. let's get straight into it with an international controversy. the queen of england, known mostly for her hat collection and her 1975 hit single "bohemian rhapsody"" yesterday

got into a spot the trouble. >> we begin with a private conversation at a garden party that's causing an international commotion. >> talk about an embarrassing international incident, queen elizabeth caught on camera criticizing the chinese government. >> trevor: oooh! i knew she was going to snap one day. come, she's been bottling that up inside for 90 years. when the queen blows up, it's all going to come out like ( bleep ) happened ages ago. "( bleep ), china. you can kiss my wrinkley royal ass, and you, too, churchill, you fat bastard. i don't want to be the queen. i want to date boys." so what does the queen say. >> trevor: that's it? she called the chinese rude? that's not the queen being

scandalous. that's just the queen being british. ( laughter ) every british person thinks that everyone else is rude. it doesn't matter how polite you are. you could throw your coat over a rain puddle for them, and stale they'd be like, "really? a leather jacket? evidently i'm not worth the fur. so rude." , of course, the idea of a world leader standing in front of a microphone and hurling insults at people is absolutely something we have to get used to. ( laughter ) thanks to the fakd that america is growing ever closing to electing a half-melted push-pop. in fact, since the rise of trump, there has been at its peak-- at its peak-- a 1,150% spike in americans goog ling, "how i can move to canada?" yes, this is a real thing which i'm sure canadians are loving. i bet they're like, sure, we're all slippery hosers until you run into trouble, 'eh?

what's that about?" and you realize you can't just move to canada. canada actually has requirements to immigrate. they want people with ph.d.es or people who are business owners or people who are stanley cups. you can't just move to canada. look, if you're really trying to escape a mad man i'm not sure moving to canada gives you enough distance from a trump presidency. like if jeffrey dahmer was your roommate, moving next door wouldn't be much better. we escaped. what's going on over there? what's he cooking? smells good. >> audience: oooh! >> trevor: look the notion of escaping a trump-pock lisp by leaving america is dumb because many of the forces that gave rise to donald trump is being felt all over the world. immigration pressures, terrorism, a struggling middle class. these are all the indgreetients necessary fair trump outbreak, and they're learning this in the netherlandss. >> tempers flare in the netherlandss as protesters fight plans by officials hohouse

european migrants in their home town. >> here's the anti-islam freedom party and he's no stranger to controversy. he compared islam to nazism and called on a ban of the koran. >> trevor: dear lord. is it me, or does that look like the son that trump has? ( laughter ) ( applause ) that is a trump child. look at that. that's the same style trump would have if he had human hair. that's exactly the same thing. and geert doesn't just look like trump and talks like trump, he tweets like donald trump. this is an actual tweet. he tweeted this, "make the netherlandss great again." at what point are we going to acknowledge, people, that "great" means language. it's coded language. just like trump, geert doesn't mince words with other countries. >> today i have a message for the the turks. your government is fooling you into believing that one day you

will become a member of the european union. well, forget it. you are no europeans. and you will never be. so, turkey, stay away from us. you are not welcome here. >> trevor: man. this guy is so mean. how would he like it if someone spoke to him like that? said, "hey, you look like a middle-aged, floating in a river." he wouldn't like that. the only thing that gives you some solace is the fact that no matter how tough a dutch politician talks, you know that he still has to ride home on his bicycle afterwards. ( laughter ) "stay out of my country." bling-bling. it's easy to laugh at this nigh gooi and not take him seriously. they were big-time colonizers and they invented apartheid and

clogs. yeah. should have probably ended on apartheid. but actually you know what? apartheid is over, but clogs still live on. yeah. and, honestly, i don't know why i was so surprised to discover that there's a dutch trump. i mean, trump already sounds look a dutch word for something you order from an amsterdam prostitute. does. trump. it sounds like that. you want trump? okay, but i need $600 for a bucket of human feces and a snorkel. i'm not using my snorkel this time. it's not just in europe. even in the east, the trumpiness is. >> in the presidential race, the mayor rodrigo duterte is expected to land a big victory. >> the donald trump of the philippines. >> his speeches won his plenty of fans. >> he's being seen as the alternative to traditional candidates in the philippines. >> he often bragz of sexual

conquests. >> he offered himself as a gift to the young bride. >> ( translated ): i don't have any money to give, but i could give your wife something else, and this is for the wives only. men, i'm sorry, but you don't get anything because i'm not a queer." >> trevor: okay, that's-- that's obscene and homophobic, and, also, ( bleep ) way to cover up the fact that you forgot to bring a real gift to the wedding. i guess all the registry items were taken. what a way to remember your wedding day. we exchanged rings and the president said he'd smash me and not you. aaah. you know in 10 years somebody is going to use that as ammunition a fight. "i'm sorry, which one of the us did the president want to ( bleep ) again? exactly. we're going with the blue sheets." and if you thought that was the only time this guy talked about his dick on the campaign trail, are you mistaken. >> ( translated ): my two girlfriends right now, i pick you up at thing at the boarding,

and then we go to a hotel. just for a short time. now that i'm olding i can only do short time. just one thrust and that's it. if there's no viagra, i'll have a difficult time. >> trevor: you know, i never thought i'd say this, but thank you, donald trump, for only talking about your penis in the abstract. and, also, i don't want to pry, but if your dick doesn't work, maybe you don't need two girlfriends. ( laughter ) i can't be tied down, babe. i have so much sexual disappointment to give. ( laughter ) so just like trump, duterte is loud, unpredictable, and dick obsessed. oh, and in addition to that, he brags about his terrible brutality. trap tranthe extreme law-and-order platform has many

fans. he is promising to bring contact capital punishment. and vowing to protect police and soldiers if they follow his shoot to kill orders. are there any funeral parlors down here? now is the time to set one up. i'll supply the dead bodies. >> trevor: how did this man win the presidency of anything, let alone a country of 100 million people. it makes you wonder who he was running against, sauron? a syringe full of aids? what it shows sualthough america might have its own set of problems right now, don't forget, a lot of those problems can exist everywhere in the world. so rather than try and flee, maybe you do need to make america great again. because it turns out, there's a lot of places like home. we'll be right back.

covering is caring

because covering heals faster. for a bandage that moves with you and stays on all day, cover with a band-aid brand flexible fabric adhesive bandage. "daddy doing work",d it's funny that i've been in the news for being a dad. windows 10 is great because i need to keep organized. school, grocery shopping. my face can unlock this computer. that's crazy. macbooks are not able to do that. "hey cortana, remind me we have a play date tomorrow at noon" i need that in my world. anything that makes my life easier, i'm using. and windows is doing that.

♪ ( cheers and applause ). >> trevor: welcome back to the "daily show." you may have been distracted lately. it's getting warmer out. you're busy celebrating cinco de mayo, and face de mayo, and i think you may have a drinking problem. the point is while everyone is focused on donald trump, the

democratic race is still on. and last night, one more state was feeling the bern. >> a big win for bernie sanders in west virginia. >> bernie sanders winning big last night. >> another primary win for bernie sanders is prolonging the democratic race. >> trevor: that's right, losing isn't in bernie's vocabulary, and neither is hair brush. you know, just when you think sanders is finished, he bursts back to life. he's got the tenacity of john snow and the body of what the red woman actually looks like. and we're not talking about a narrow victory here. >> sanders beat clinton by 15 points, 51-36%. >> 43% of sanders voters said they'll defect to trump in the fall if clinton is the nominee. >> trevor: wow! what? i mean, i knew some of bernie's voters up young, but i didn't realize they were children. like, "fine! i'm just going to go vote for trump! hillary is stupid and she smells like benghazi!" why would you say that? you're going to vote for trump?

i mean, bernie had a great win here and the truth is this particular win was kind of inevitable because west virginia democrats aren't-- they're really an interesting case. you know, they always seem to be voting against candidates more than they vote for them. and right now, they hate hillary, because in march, she said she would get rid of all the coal jobs, or as they're known in west virginia, "the jobs." and back in the 2012 primary, even though obama was a sitting president, 41% of west virginia democrats voted instead for a fellow named keith judd, a man who tried to extort money by sending a pack package that include a semen stained playboy. they would rather vote for a criminal who doesn't know how to ejaculate away from a magazine. hillary won west virginia by

flon points because the guy worse than her upon barack obama. west virginia hated obama since they found out he wasn't a white guy covered in coal. let's just wipe this off. oh, my god! it's not coming off! it's not coming off! so bernie sanders has definitely been on a roll lately, and there's one person who has noticed. >> donald trump this morning reacting to his wins last night tweeting, "i don't want to hit crazy bernie sanders too hard yet because i love watching what hee is doing to crooked hillary." >> "crazy bernie" is the new nickname. >> i call him "crazy bernie" because he's not very good. >> trevor: why don't you just call him crazy because you think he's crazy. that's a strange reason, donald trump. it's also impressive, though. donald trump gave bernie a nickname and that's how you know he takes him seriously as a threat. although "crazy bernie" is not donald's best work. i'm sure you could have done better with that. america tried that insoul their bread and people still love that

( bleep ). so, donald trump, you need to work harder. and it turns out donald trump isn't the only one in the nickname game. >> the d.n.c. with a nickname of its own for donald trump, dubbing him "dangerous donald." ( laughter ) >> trevor: first off, what are you doing, d.n.c.? you realize that trump has tricked you into playing his game. and i get why you want to play it, because it's a lot more fun than your regular game, which is to be a rational adult, but any time you play trump's game on your own turf, you lose. in this case you picked "dangerous donald," which just makes him sound cool. you sound look a mom warning your kid. "don't you go off with that dangerous boy on his harley davidson and his shirt and tank top and those muscles and he's so-- where are you going! why did you drop your panties?" there are so many other "d" words you could have chosen for donald trump, deceitful, dumb

ass, dickhead, dur aingeed, dufus. or if you try to beat him at his game, you can add another "d" word to that, definitely going to be president. we'll be right back. ( cheers and applause )

♪ wait, you shot that? she calls it, "onions." it's beautiful. put this on our homepage now. can i have three tickets for "onions" please? this was like seeing the onion on a molecular level. this is talent. why are we not representing it? ¡tan bonitas! 4k on an iphone, wake up people! and the winner is... "onions." [cheering] ♪ with fans clamoring for our next hit album, we return to our extravagant private studio, where we turn gold into platinum. yes, i am rich. that's why i drink the champagne of beers.

lips appear to age faster tno worries.kin. now, there's chapstick® total hydration. its 100% natural, age defying formula is clinically proven to provide healthier, more youthful looking lips. chapstick® put your lips first® nice to meet you! welcome, welcome! today i'm going to show you the all-new 2016 chevy cruze and ask you what you think. but here's the catch. you can only answer in emojis. what emoji would you use to describe the design? sfx:message sent i think it's sexy. mm-mm-mm! it has available built-in 4g lte wifi® sfx:message sent rock on. that's excellent. we got wifi. the cruze offers up to an epa estimated 42 mpg highway. sfx:message sent this car is like a unicorn. it's magical! (group laughing)

why does your tummy go "grumbily, grumbily, grumbily"? no more questions for you! ooph, that milk in your cereal was messing with you, wasn't it? try lactaid, it's real milk, without that annoying lactose. good, right? mmm, yeah. lactaid. the milk that doesn't mess with you.

( cheers and applause ) >> trevor: welcome back to the "daily show." my guest tonight is the founder and editor in chief of fivethirtyeight.com. please welcome nate silver. ( cheers and applause ). >> trevor: thank you for being here. >> of course,. >> trevor: thank you so much. everyone in the building is such a big fan of yours. >> well, i'm a big fan of the show. >> trevor: yeah, you are, you are a math rock star. that's what you are. >> we have a long history this, show and fivethirtyeight. high moments, low moments. >> trevor: let's talk about some of the high moments that you have been experiencing. i mean, you-- what-- what are your numbers right now in terms of predicting correctly how the races have panned out?

>> we're 52 out of 57 in individual states so far. >> trevor: that's a high number. >> but we were skeptical of trump's chances for most of the last year. a lot of people were, but we were among the skeptics. >> trevor: you're a data journalist, and so i guess the pressure is on you to get most things-- you get most of your-- >> there's a little bit of a thing where in baseball if the umpire makes a bad call, that's when you notice. you know, yeah, i mean, we tend to get things right, and i think we have a pretty good record of saying when is something really kind of crazy and unusual versus a toss-up, where you have a close race. we haven't seen something like the trump nomination on 38, at least in my life. you have to harken back, i think, to the 60s, almost. but everything we thought we knew about politics was kind of wrong this cycle. ( laughter ) we thought the republicans had fun, you know, they would have a

dance with the beginning rism, for example, or the herman cane but in the end kim back and pick a sensible, right wing candidate. and they were way crazier than i imagined. >> trevor: are there any numbers that help you understand why that happened? or is this a complete outlier situation? or is donald trump just a parallel universe happening to us right now? >> i know the segment earlier about politicians in europe, so you do see people like this in other places around the globe. and maybe one thing that surprised me the most about trump is the whole kind of what they call the three legged stool where you have fiscal conservatism and family values and america's leader of the free world. trump doesn't care about that stool. he just cares about enraging people and the strongest correlate of trump's support that we've been able to find is the number of racist google searches in an area. this is not >> trevor: what are racist google searches? >> i mean, use your imagination.

yeah. ( laughter ). >> trevor: hmmm... >> and there are some myths. people say, for example, that, oh, trump is about the working class. we ran some numbers on this. trump's median voter is making about $72,000 a year in household income. >> trevor: that's a really interesting point because a lot of people say trump is appealing to the working class. trump is appealing to the man at the bottom, the downtrodden. but a lot of wealthy people, people above what people consider-- >> they're not kasich voters or rubio voters who are make lots and lots of money. they're people who are upper middle class and i think feel as though their moment is passing them by. and, of course, it's overwhelmingly >> trevor: what is thur moment, the apocalypse? what does that mean? why would they vote for trump, though? it doesn't seem like-- you know, when you look at the polls, which are always changing, which are always moving around, this is what you have to do all the time, how do you make sense of the noise? because there's a trump that says-- i mean, there's a poll that says trump is six point or

eight points away from hillary, but on the other hand, they go, there's, like, a secret poll where people don't talk to somebody, and if people don't have to speak to somebody then they support trump. >> there's a theory that people-- people don't want to declare their support for trump. in the primaries that wasn't true. he underperformed in some states, like iowa, overperformed in new york and other states. if you ever have met a trump supporter, not the quiet type, necessarily. not the silent majority. it's the noisy plurality. >> trevor: i'm picturing the trump supporter you met. >> i used to play poker for a living and the phrase in poker is, "a chip and a chair." means he has one of two tickets to a dance, and a lot of things can happen wars can happen, recessions can happen. there was a list of biggest global threats and number nine was a trump presidency. what if the polls are close and there's a global financial panic and trump wins because of the

global financial panic about trump winning. i'm not epityler kidding about this. there are feedback exploops >> trevor: you look terrified. ( laughter ) i'm loving this. you are literally terrified. you are the de facto data journalist, and you-- you are terrified right now. are you seeing something in the numbers you're not telling us? >> it's may. hillary is ahead right now. if you won the election today hillary clinton would win right now for sure. but michael dukakis was leading in 1998 in may. bill clinton was way behind in 1992. so things can shift. i do think, ultimately, trump is going to face demographic headwindses. if you look at the democratic base, which means plaque people, hispanic people, and increasingly asian people, pie the way, plus white cosmopolitan liberals, probably people in this room, probably. >> trevor: that's you guys, the cool people, yeah. the cool people. >> the other half, is women, and that i think is the problem donald trump might have trouble

getting over is the 70% unfavorable rating among women. >> trevor: but the women love him, though. >> well, certain types of women. he's had several wives. that's not enough for a majority, though, unfortunately. ( laughter ). >> trevor: let me ask you a question. you have the numbers. you believe in the the numbers. if you knew it was ending, would you tell us or would you get a head start for yourself? ( laughter ). >> so i wouldn't move to canada. >> trevor: why not? >> i'm a patriot, trevor. i might move to bellingham, washington, or something, just right over the border pup don't have to renounce your citizenship, and a 15-minute drive if anything goes awry. >> trevor: that's admirable of you, i like that. still in the country but one foot out. thank you so much for being here. nate silver, everybody. we'll be right back. ( applause ) ♪

tons of awesome vehicles.e! great deals for everyone! thanks! low apr financing! woo! here's your balloon! ♪ i have the best team. oh, here i come! during toyotatime, get 0% apr financing on ten models. offer ends may 31st. for great deals on other toyotas, visit toyota.com here you go. and here i go! toyota. let's go places.

in my gentleman's quarters, we sip champagne and peruse my art collection, which consists of renaissance classics and more avant-garde pieces. yes, i am rich. that's why i drink the champagne of beers. t-mobile does data differently. while the other guys gouge you for every bit of data you use...

...now, t-mobile lets you stream all the video and music that you want from your favorite services... free! without using one bit of your lte data. plus, you can roll your unused data forward. nobody does data like t-mobile. get four lines... ...with ten gigs of 4g lte data each ..for just thirty-five bucks per line... ...from t-mobile. ( cheers and applause ). >> trevor: that's our show for tonight. join us tomorrow night at 11:00. here it is, your moment of zen. >> would you like to enjoy some salad. >> i might be. >> you have been very impressive. >> everybody wants a yoga girl, right, jason? >> that's right. >> and i know you want me to toss your salad, too, don't you. >> on captioning sponsored by

comedy central (cheers and applause). >> larry: thank you very much. thank you, such a good crowd. welcome to the show. welcome to the nightly show. i'm larry wilmore. thank you, ma'am, thank you very much. so we begin tonight with america. >> well, just in time for the fourth of july the