happen to energy in the next 100 years? imagine if i said this, we have a periodic table worked out, it ends with uranium. and we will invent a new element called plutonium and if i get this much in this confined space for a very short amount of time the entire city that i am in blows up and is vaporized. but if i disperse the reaction to a large area of the entire city could be lit with electric lights come of my god everywhere and things called refrigerators and computers, i do know what that is? have a box of my pocket you can access every piece of information instantaneously. when we make the 100 year projections for things going into the atmosphere, we have

no idea whether that is real. . . let's try a thousand years. this should be the exact same science. they were smart as the people

who make the computer models for greenland and the could have said based on current trends in the year 1,000 we believe that there'll be 338 billion catholics by the year 2000 and 90% of the world will be catholic based upon trends that we have seen. this is what happens when you project things out for a thousand years -- it is silly. what we base policy on projections like that? are haven't a clue. one more i think -- one or two. i will get the one in the back there. >> [inaudible] [inaudible] have

your views changed about this calls origin in science? have they changed, have they not changed? >> well, you got to buy the book. [laughter] and i will tell you why because there is a chapter in a call that are changing from a history and in that chapter i asked him to be a scientist -- i think is started off in 1990 and 1995, 2000 and 2005 and you can see how the same data sets have changed. in 1990 there was a paper published by spencer and

christie which have 11 years of a brand new satellite called america with sending unit and it showed no warming. but the surface temperature record showed warming and the weather balloon record which is the third record showed no warming. by 1995 that disparity continued. by the year 2000 the united nations adjusted its temperature record so that the readings around 1955 colder so there was more warming in the same data and it was discovered that the satellite had a driftnet to -- a drift in it so that was corrected and there are various corrections to the satellite record began to show warming and then by the year 2005 or 2007 there is a tremendous adjustment that was made to the weather

balloon data where it got much, much colder. remember that in the early portions of the record? and so now all the records agree and the point in my article is he would have to say at that point that warming israel which you also have. >> it up with the understanding of the way science works which is why people try to get data to fit the theory. that is really what we do in case you don't now. it's up to you to decide -- six changes in the record all of the same direction, flipping a coin is six times and getting all heads, chance is to add a 100. it was possible that it was real but the probability is low. one question in the back and we're out of here. back in the middle.

>> in the middle. >> i was pointing to the guy in the dark because i don't loli's. >> i'm jim, i write for national review sometimes. one quick comment by the way on the dispute about sea level rises is it is correct and that the numbers your siding exclude rapid dynamically change in eyes level but is also true that the same report in chapter 10 the ipc said these are unlikely to occur and that's why they're not included in the numbers. >> i know that. >> i guess the question about the chart you were showing demonstrating falsification of the models -- how you go about estimating what you think is the minimum time necessary for a valid falsification test? >> wealth, we did not. we went on out to 20. the problem is that we can go much beyond 20 because then we start using model data that is too far out in the future.

>> [inaudible] >> well, when i see the observed data following that point, 025 an online, pretty much along the entire length of would be really shocked if another 10 years would make it all of a sudden jump in to the trumpet, this sort of trumpet. that would be very odd. listen, i wish i could put 10 years on the clock in at eight. [laughter] and do that but i can't do that. thank you very much. lunch upstairs. [applause] >> patrick michaels is a past president of the american association of state climatologists and contributing author and reworked to the united nations intergovernmental panel on climate change. mr. michaels is a research professor of and rental sciences at the university of virginia and a visiting scientist with

the marshall institute in washington d.c.. robert balling is a professor in the climatology program in the school of geographical sciences at arizona state univ.. for more information on the author please go to kato did award. >> this summer booktv is asking what are you reading? >> i am karla:, of a politics and prose bookstore in washington d.c. and i got into the business because i love to read more than anything. you can see i don't do too much exercise, instead i lie on the sofa and read instead. so i want to tell you that to the books, this is such an incredible year for reading and for books and i am happy to have the chance to talk about this on c-span because i think c-span

doesn't bring an affliction to you -- fiction to you and i think fiction can be more true than books about policy or history. my to themes this year our immigration and south asia. i am not going to talk about three paperbacks that are so popular on their own they really don't need me to support them, but i will tell you what they are -- one is never land which has received all kinds of awards by joseph o'neill. he is part dutch in part irish and it is a book that takes place in new york because of 9/11. the second book is -- i0 is done

over the name, the currency literary and potato peel by a society which is an epistolary book about the i'll guernsey during world war ii and it is a real delightful book about some women who get together and try to think of ways of sabotaging the germans who are on the island who occupy the island because it is part of britain and the germans nazis actually occupy the island. and the third boat which really does not need me to promoted is unaccustomed to earth. that's sad ways into the both oh genres that i want to introduce today. one is a novel about immigration

it is in a constant need reaffirming stories about people coming to the united states to reinvent themselves and the other is the great lives of the salvation writers and, of course, the author represents both of these trends. on immigration i guess i would like to start would burner because it takes place in the 1850's. it is about a group of mostly new americans who are working out issues in the united states trying to settle and to the new world, but it all takes place in a few hours in the area around walden pond and where a very depressed henry thoreau accidentally starts a forest fire and everybody in the

surrounding area is called in to try to prevent the fire from burning down the beautiful town of concord. and the hero of the day is a norwegian immigrant named osmond who has had a tragic event happen to him on the ship over to the united states. it is a way in which he can refine it and relocate himself in the united states by helping to subdue the fire. there are other characters as well. there are czech immigrants, there are irish immigrants, and there are others who are becoming the composite that the united states will be.

then another book that takes place a whole century later is brooklyn, and that is about an irish woman who comes to the united states to brooklyn obviously and leaves her family, there is no work for her in brooklyn, and it is just a really lovely book about how those a woman is able to settle in, fine friends and then she is called by her mother to come back to ireland and she has to decide which side of the ocean she is going to live on. you don't know until the very end of what decision she is going to make. as got a little bit of mystery and a little bit of romance, it's just a very lovely book. and we are avid so i can't even

show you a cover, we have sold so many copies this weekend. let me see, another immigrant novel is to the beautiful north -- into the beautiful north. this is the second of his books, the first was hummingbird's daughter which took place in northern mexico. this actually takes place mostly in the united states because it is about a mexican woman who comes to the united states to find seven men to save her town in northern mexico from bandits. she is under the influence of you'll brunner's the magnificent seven and she and her gay friend traveled around the united states trying to locate the seven men who will fight the bandits. so that is a really adorable book. and then there is -- and there

are some immigration books from britain. i think many of you know that putin is changing since it entered the common market and has become a center for immigration allover from eastern europe as well as south asia and two books that represent one it is the road home, she is a british writer who really should be better known in the united states in this takes place in london everyman who is from the former soviet union trying to eke out a living having been in a bleak time in western europe. and then the second book also displays in the kitchen and that is called, in the kitchen.

so i think this one, of course, is in paper, the road home, and the new monica ali is in hardback which probably makes a difference to people. finally it monica ali segues into my other favorite genre which is south asian books. i have to hear, one is abraham -- cutting for stone which is about a physician, it is really hard to describe because it is an epic, very fact epic novel. we have gone on so people coming into the store to say how much they love this book. in -- it is about a position in the united states who emigrated here and chilly autumn ethiopia

where his family where protestant missionaries and a lot of cutting for stone takes place in ethiopia and a lot of it takes place in the united states in a hospital in the united states. it is a rush -- lush beautiful writing about medicine and immigration and it is about ethiopia in bad times and it is a wonderful book. the other book, south asian book takes place in calcutta and is called a sacred games and is by -- it is in that tradition of life imitating art. it would have been in mumbai last year was almost as though they were following a script from sacred games. sacred games is dominated by two

major characters. an underworld boss who has all kinds of ties to nationalist groups and so although he is interested in money he is also doing the will of some of the fundamentalist hindu fundamentalist politicians in the good guy in the book is a police detective who is on the side of virtue and goodness and democracy. there are. against each other in this year's novel which is a wonderful book to take away on a trip. so those are my recommendations. i could go on and on but i try to narrow it down. thank you for asking me. >> to see more summer reading lists and other program information visit our web site at booktv.org.

>> eric burns, author and former host of a "fox news watch", recounts deliberately false and error prone stories that existed in the history of american journalism. mr. burns profile of the authors and their motivations that range from mark tweens of this discovery of a 100 year old petrified man en benjamin franklin's fabricated report of the trial of miss polly baker. in this event hosted by bronson noble in new york city is 45 minutes. >> thank you all for coming. like most authors to sell less than john grisham, i had told, khalil of -- i had hoped more privileged, i think that word of my intention linked out because my intention is to begin this evening by reading to you what

is in my opinion one of the more mundane, more predictable and less insightful paragraphs in this entire book. [laughter] so i guess i asked for a few empty seats. here is the paragraph: most journalists behave like most other people in most other occupations. they do their jobs well or better than well, they realize that others depend on them and are stimulated by the need to meet their responsibilities. they want to succeed and be rewarded for their success my gratitude, money and maybe a few plaques at a few dinners in their honor. end of paragraph. this book is not about those people. this book is about people whose journalistic behavior was adamant, not typical. in this book, jason player who makes only a cameo appearance is a wrongdoer of modest

proportions. now you remember jason blair, the young man who worked for "the new york times" who covered stories without actually going to them. what he would do was get newspapers from the areas in which the stories of appear or sign on into the internet and get blogs and other accounts and from the store is that to work elsewhere of the event he was to cover, he toddles into their stores of his own meaning that although the editors of the new york times would have despised him, the accountants would have loved him. he was a cheap high gear. he never filed an expense account for air fare, train fare, hotel bills, meals. he could not. he never went anywhere. long before jason and player, started reporting on stores without benefit of actually witnessing them. one of the most esteemed figures in the history of american

literature or rather english literature to the same thing and he did it much more often. in the early 1740's and the distinguished, the eminent, the absent dr. samuel johnson cover the debates of britain's parliament for a publication called, gentleman's magazine. the cover the debates for more than two years. he showed up at parliament wants. one appearance in a little more than two years. now sometimes when he would do is hire a young man as a runner, that's what they call him in journalism today, he would go to the house of commons and listen for a few minutes and then he would run back and tell dr. johnson what happens then come give him a general idea of a small portion of the debate, but essentially samuel johnson just made this stuff up himself. he knew from other publications what topics were scheduled that

day in parliament, what topics were scheduled to be discussed. he knew who is scheduled to speak and he knew the positions that these people had. so that information as his source of raw materials he just wrote the stuff himself. now why didn't members of parliament complained? because their speeches were some much more interesting coming from johnson's penn then coming from their own mouths. history didn't find out the truth about johnson's fraud until he admitted himself which he did because he finally got to the point in which he just could not stand it anymore. all those in his opinion semiliterate members of parliament getting so much credit for a degree of eloquence that samuel johnson knew only sammy johnson could achieve. johnson once said in the hands of as absentee journalism that he did not think he was quote, imposing on the world coming end

of quote. six days before he died, however, he changed his mind. and on his deathbed apologize for this kind of reporting, root his duplicity. he went to his grave having been responsible for what was and i quote here from the book, the longest series of falsehoods ever assembled under the banner of fact in the history of reporting. a couple of decades later the americans samuel adams wrote a shorter but more insidious series of falsehoods and the boston gazette. his purpose was two inside his fellow americans to separate themselves from british rule, legislative be impossible if not and then a militarily. so among other things johnson wrote about violence, perpetrated by british soldiers are stationed in boston against american citizens.

he wrote about and just as important inspired other publications to write about severely punitive laws that parliament was intending to inflict on americans. lies -- all of it lies. it is a subject about which i wrote at length in a previous book that carolyn mentioned called "infamous scribblers", the founding fathers and their ratted beginnings of american journalism. so i did not write about it at length in all the news unfit to -- "all the news unfit to print" and want to speak about it here. suffice it to say that as a newsman sam adams was the biggest liar in the noblest cause in american history. mark twain was one of the great writers of fiction in american history. unfortunately for the readers of the nevada newspaper about a century and a half ago, he wrote some of that friction in the guise of journalism. for instance, he described the

discovery of a petrified man in the nevada desert. he wrote as follows: the body it was in sitting position, the attitude was pensive, the right thumb resting against the side of the nose. no it wasn't. there wasn't any petrified man in the nevada desert a century and a half ago, at least not as far as anybody knows. he also wrote stories about indians being smothered to death and about a mining speculator mark twain hated the notion of financial speculation, about a mining speculator being murdered quote, his throat cut from ear to ear and bearing in his hand a reeking scalp from which of the warm smoking blood it was still dripping. didn't happen a. but despite all this and more stories equally fictitious, mark twain was unrepentant.

he thought readers wanted and occasionally deserved a respite from the tedium, from the demands of reality and he thought that reporters skycam provided this respite or to be commended, not centered. here is a quote from mark twain about that. the wise thing is for us to train ourselves to lie thoughtfully, judiciously, to live firmly, frankly, squarely with head erect, not haltingly, tortuously, with pusillanimous mean, as being ashamed of our high calling. it should go without saying that line has never been generally thought of as a high calling in the field of journalism. certainly it was not a high calling as practiced by william randolph hearst in the days leading up to the spanish-american war. in fact, to some extent cursed himself and his paper was

responsible for the outbreak of war in the first place. in 1998 william hearst public journal published one incendiary article after another urging the u.s. to intervene in cuba where the spaniards who controlled the island were treating the cubans viciously. they were imposing higher taxes on the cubans, they were restricting the freedoms of the cubans, they were inflicted severe punishment on the cubans for the most minor of offenses. eventually the united states government got so upset about the situation that isn't the battleship maine into havana harbor not to do anything, just to sit there as a calling or perhaps intimidating presence. but on february 15th, 1898, the maine exploded, all to under 50 people on board were killed.

the new york journal insisted in big black headlines and on the basis of no evidence whatsoever that spain had been responsible, the united states have to go to war now. absolutely had to. but what of the spaniards had not been responsible for the destruction of the main? president william mckinley was in short and so what he did was convened a naval court of inquiry to look into the matter which made william hearst livid. he was so impatient to get a war started, a war that he had covered than a month and a half after the maine exploded he published the findings of the naval court of inquiry. according to the journal's article, the court of inquiry quote, finds that the spanish government blew up the maine. ..